Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 18, 2017

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All our targets have been hit which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis. The pair is trading below its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

As long as 0.9610 holds on the downside, the pair is likely to challenge its next key resistance at 0.9510.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction than predicted, a downside long position is recommended above 112.55 with a target at 112.85.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 112.55, Take Profit: 111.50

Resistance levels: 112.85, 113.15, and 113.50

Support levels: 111.50,111.20, and 111.45

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 18, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has moved upwards seriously this week, exceeding our first two targets (1.1500 and 1.1550). The price is now going towards the resistance line at 1.1600, and it may test it between today and tomorrow. The outlook on the EUR/USD is bullish for this week.

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USD/CHF: This market has gone seriously southwards this week, ending the short-term neutrality on it. Our first target at 0.9550 has been exceeded, and the next target would be the support level at 0.9500, which is expected to be exceeded as well. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD has been volatile so far this week, but the bullish bias on it has remained intact (unless the price drops by 200 pips from here). The outlook on GBP pairs is bullish for this week, and as such, it is possible to see the GBP/USD go upwards by over 200 pips from here, putting more emphasis on the recent bullish bias.

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USD/JPY: A Bearish Confirmation Pattern has appeared on this currency trading instrument, as it goes south more than 70 pips this week (till present). There is a bearish signal in the market, and the price has gone below the supply level at 112.00, now nosing towards the demand level at 111.50, which is the next target right now.

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EUR/JPY: This cross has not done much so far – in fact, it is consolidating right now. The stamina in EUR has helped in keeping the bullishness in the market. The situation may change. The demand zone at 128.50 has tried to halt further correction, but the price may break below it as it goes further southwards, thus invalidating the uptrend. It should be borne in mind that the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for July.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 18, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair retreated from 0.9700 (around the high of July 14th) and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the bearish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for a new drop.

To conclude, below 0.9610, look for a further decline to 0.9510 and even to 0.9485 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9610, Take Profit: 0.9510

Resistance levels: 0.9635, 0.9655, and 0.9785

Support levels: 0.9510, 0.9485, and 0.940

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 18, 2017

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All our downward targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis have been hit, GBP/JPY is expected to continue its downside movement. The pair accelerated on the downside and broke below the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index broke below its oversold level of 30.

Hence, below 146.70, expect a new drop to 146.25 and even to 144.80 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a long position is recommended above 146.70 with the target at 147.55.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 146.70, Take Profit: 145.25.

Resistance levels: 147.10, 147.55, and 148

Support levels: 145.25, 144.80, and 144

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 18, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. NZD/USD rebounded from 0.7265 and expected to continue its rebound. Although the pair broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, it is still trading above the key support at 0.7305, which should limit the downside potential. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, as long as 0.7305 is not broken, a rebound to 0.7380 and even to 0.7405 seems more likely to occur.

Strategy: BUY Stop Loss: 0.7305 Take Profit: 0.7380

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7380, 0.7405, and 0.7445

Support levels: 0.7265, 0.7240, and 0.7200

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GBP/USD analysis for July 18, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3005. Anyway, according to the 15M time frame, I found selling climax in the background and testing of supply in a low volume, which Is sign that selling looks risky. There is also a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI (14), which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3045, 1.3065 and 1.3080.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3110

R2: 1.3170

R3: 1.3215

Support levels:

S1: 1.3000

S2: 1.2950

S3: 1.2890

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for July 18, 2017

GBP/USD has been trading with a bullish bias recently despite the weak economic reports and political uncertainty in the country. The price has been very impulsive for the last three days due to weakness of the USD which was greater than GBP in comparison. Today GBP gained ground in the morning but after the negative economic reports all the bulls were impulsively rejected and currently the market is in a total bearish bias. Today, the UK CPI report was published with a worse value at 2.6% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.9%, PPI Input showed a softer decline at -0.4% from the previous value of -0.7% which was expected to drop to -0.8%, RPI report was published with a worse figure at 3.5% from previous value of 3.7% which was expected to be at 3.6%, Core CPI was published with a worse figure at 2.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.6%, HPI report was published at 4.7% which previously was at 5.3% which was expected to be at 3.0%, and PPI Output report was published with a decreased value of 0.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.1%. On the USD side, today Import Prices report is due later today which is expected to show a better reading at -0.2% from the previous value of -0.3%, and NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to be unchanged at 67. To sum up, despite the mixed economic reports from the UK today the weakness is again observed on GBP/USD. As the weakness in GBP continues, further bearish pressure is expected to hit the pair in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has recently rejected the bulls after downbeat economic reports today which led the price to come below 1.3050 resistance level again. Currently, the price is expected to move lower towards 1.2800 support area as of recent rejection of the bulls in the market. If we see a daily close below 1.3050, a further bearish move is expected with a target towards 1.2800. Otherwise, if the price closes above 1.3050 with a daily close today, then further bullish pressure is expected with a target towards 1.3370 resistance level.

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USD/JPY analysis for July 18, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 111.75. According to the 4H time frame, there is a rejection from resistance and lower highs, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of 111.75 and 111.05.

Resistance levels:

R1: 112.37

R2: 112.55

R3: 112.70

Support levels:

S1: 112.00

S2: 111.85

S3: 111.65

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 18/07/2017

Global macro overview for 18/07/2017:

Last week was terrible for the US Dollar. First, Patrick Harke, the President of FED in Philadelphia, dropped the hawkish stance, then Janet Yellen softened her remarks in front of the US Congress, and on Friday, a downbeat supply of US economic data hit the financial markets: disappointing were both inflation and retail sales data. As a result, the probability of a September interest rate hike fell to 42.3% and the US Dollar weakened to levels unseen since October last year.

This week, sell-off in the US Dollar continues on Monday and Tuesday as the empire manufacturing data has been a decent miss in July (9.8 vs.15.2, 19.8 prior). Moreover, the recent news regarding Trump's reform of Obamacare revealed that two more senators announced their opposition to the Republican health care.

The slowdown in the US inflation, which was thought to be "transitory" by the FED, now appears to be turning into a sustained medium-term trend. In the coming days, the economic calendar contains only publications of secondary importance that will not change the perception of the path of inflation and the consequences of FED policy. In conclusion, there is not much chance for the US Dollar to reverse its downward path across the board soon and any more negative news regarding both economic outlook (especially inflation) and Trump's administration plans will only deepen the plunge.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price fell out of the golden channel. After a rejection off the level of 112.92, the price is moving downward towards the next techcnial support at the level of 111.71.

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Global macro overview for 18/07/2017

Global macro overview for 18/07/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes indicated a positive attitude towards the second quarter GDP growth. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 0.3% in the March quarter, but the data for June quarter "was generally positive" amid rebounding consumption growth. Nevertheless, RBA pointed out growing divergences in the domestic economy, especially in consumption, as it still remains generally subdued given the record level of household debt bearing down on consumers.

The RBA policymakers voted to keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5% at the June meeting, which is 11th month of no changes in monetary policy. The timing of the next interest rate hike remains unknown and there is a little clue from the policymakers about whether the interest rate hike could happen. The only economic signs of a possible hike in the nearest future are surging prices of houses and record debt levels. The RBA's next meeting is scheduled for August 1st and still, no change in policy is expected.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the daily time frame. The pair is soaring higher above the multi-month technical resistance at the level of 0.7832 and the recent top at the level of 0.7924 was its highest level since May 2015. The relative strength index advanced to 78%, warning that AUD/USD may have been overbought in large quantities in a very short period of time. Price pullbacks are expected to meet dip-buyers as the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7832.

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Breaking Forecast: US import / export prices

Breaking forecast - US import / export prices

Import prices - forecast -0.2%. The previous value is -0.3% (month-to-month).

Year to Year + 2.1%

Why is it important?

As the Fed said last week, inflation was the main indicator for the current situation. The Fed relies on the fact that inflation is still below the lower limit of less than 2% per annum.

As we see, import prices are falling, and the forecast shows a decrease. This is an argument for the Fed to delay the gradual tightening of monetary policy.

If the indicator comes out according to the forecast, this is an additional impetus for the growth of the euro, pound, Australian, and franc against the dollar.

The EUR / USD rate will continue to grow to 1.1600.

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Trend against the dollar was continued

The trend against the dollar was continued.

Morning review.

By Tuesday morning, there were notable events in the foreign exchange market:

EUR / USD rate jerked over the zone of 1.1490 - 1.1500 and reached the level of 1.1537.

AUD / USD rate flew the figure upward and marked above 0.7900 (look at the picture on AUDUSD - it's beautiful, right?).

USD / CHF rate was difficult, but punctured down to 0.9600.

The pound rose again to around 1.3100.

So, the general trend against the dollar has developed.

The market is waiting for a support from the ECB on Thursday. If the head of the ECB Draghi will give an excuse to expect the ECB policy to turn away from ultra-soft, the movement against the dollar will receive a new impetus.

ECB meeting on Thursday.

We are in the purchase of EUR / USD from 1.1460 and 1.1490. The target is still 1.1580.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 18, 2017

The Dollar index back tested the break down level at 95.50 and reversed back lower after being rejected at resistance. Price is now just above our 94.70 target.

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Red line- resistance

Blue line - support (broken)

The trend is bearish. Target is 94.70 and was given once price broke below the blue horizontal support at 95.50. We were bearish since 96.30 where price could not break above the 4 hour Kumo. The trend has not changed since despite being given some weak signals of reversal. The reversal was never confirmed. On the contrary, the bearish trend signs were strengthened.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index remains inside the weekly bearish channel and below the weekly Kumo. The RSI (5) is oversold and diverging. This is not a reversal signal but a warning. Do not think it is the same. The trend remains bearish and there is no confirmation of a bullish reversal in any time frame. I continue to expect a bounce but price action continues to favor bears.

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Pound Believed the Bank of England

Taking advantage of the strong labor market data of the UK, rumors about tightening monetary policy by the BoE, the moderately "dovish" rhetoric of Janet Yellen and weak data on US inflation, retail sales and consumer confidence, the GBP/USD jumped to its highest level since September. The trade-weighted sterling's exchange rate is currently 5% higher than the seven-year lows that took place in October, which reduces the risks of acceleration in the CPI. Is this what the Bank of England sought?

Weekly dynamics of the GBP/USD pair

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Source: Bloomberg.

The hawkish speeches made by the representatives of the Monetary Policy Committee, not only hinted at raising rates, but also dealing with the British QE, appears to have done their job: investors believe that the BoE will tighten monetary policy even amid the slowdown of the UK economy. The likelihood of raising the interest rate before the end of this year are estimated by the market at 57%, so the Bank of England is among the top three candidates for monetary tightening among the G10 currency issuers. This circumstance, along with a reduction in political risks, most of which are already included in the GBP/USD prices, allows BTMU to forecast that the pair will strengthen to 1.25 by the end of the year. The bank believes that amid a drop in the unemployment rate of the US to a new cyclical low of 4.5% and growth in employment of 175,000 this spring, the anti-crisis scenario of the BoE is no longer relevant.

Nomura stands by with a "bullish" view on the pound, however, Credit Agricole and Citigroup are not going to leave the ranks of the "bears". According to them, the growing risks of a slowdown in Britain's GDP will keep the BoE from raising interest rates. Most of it will depend on the data on inflation and retail sales, the release of which allows the sterling to claim the role of the most interesting currency of the week by July 21.

If retail trade is in fact better than expected, investors will start to think that even in the condition of falling real incomes, the population pushes up domestic demand. The strength of the indicator will raise the chances of a tightening of monetary policy by the BoE and will allow the GBP/USD to continue the rally.

Dynamics of average wages and inflation in Britain

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Source: Trading Economics.

Traders should not forget about the next round of negotiations between Brussels and London regarding Brexit. In the first series, Britain proposed requirements for EU nationals that reside in the UK, which signaled a soft divorce scenario and supported the bulls on GBP/USD. Nevertheless, Brexit secretary David Davis said that it's time for the parties to dismiss differences and begin working on finding a compromise, which could have a negative impact on the pound.

Technically, the bulls for GBP/USD managed to get prices from the rising long-term trading channel, which increases the risks of continuing the upward movement. While on the way buyers become resistive at 1,311. If the retest is completed successfully, the road towards the 88.6% target will be opened for an inverted "Bat" pattern.

GBP/USD, daily chart

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Technical analysis of gold for July 18, 2017

The Gold price is in a short-term bullish trend targeting $1,260. Today we may see a pull back towards $1,230 but I believe this will only be a back test of the breakout. I remain short- and long-term bullish.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Gold price has broken out of the bearish channel and the 4 hour Kumo (cloud). The trend is now bullish as we are above short-term resistance. Short-term support is at $1,230 and next at $1,215. Bulls do not want to break below $1,215.

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Red lines -wedge pattern

On a daily basis, the Gold price broke out of the wedge pattern. We noted this pattern and the break out on time and said how bullish this was. The target remains at the start of the wedge and at the daily Kumo (cloud) at $1,250-60.

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Trading plan for 18/07/2017

Trading plan for 18/07/2017:

The US Dollar is heavily oversold after the dismantling of the Obamacare system in the US. EUR/USD spiked through 1.1500 level and USD/JPY tested 112.00 level. The strongest currency in the Asian trading session is the AUD, which has gained almost 1.5% after the RBA Meeting Minutes release.

On Tuesday 18th of July, the event calendar is busy with important economic releases, so global investors will pay attention to Consumer Price Index, PPI and Retail Price Index from the UK, ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany and the Eurozone. During the US session, Import Price Index will be released. Later on the day, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will give a speech.

GBP/USD analysis for 18/07/2017:

The very important inflation data in form of Consumer Price Index (core), PPI and Retail Price Index from the UK are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT. Market participants do not expect any major changes in the inflationary pressures, so the CPI is expected to decrease slightly from 0.3% to 0.2% on a monthly basis, but it is likely to remain unchanged on a yearly basis at 2.9%. The Retail Price Index is expected to remain unchanged on a monthly basis at the level of 0.4%, but it could decrease slightly on a yearly basis, from 3.7% to 3.6%. Later in the global trading day, BoE Governor Mark Carney will give a speech, so his comments might influence the GBP/USD rate as well. During the last speech at the Central Bankers Conference in Portugal, his remarks were very hawkish, especially regarding the possibility of an interest rate hike, so they triggered an immediate Pound rally across the board. If he confirms his point of view in today's speech, the Pound might move even higher towards 1.3150 level.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has tested the technical support at the level of 1.3048 and now is bouncing back towards the local highs at the level of 1.3113. There is a possibility of a further extension towards the level of 1.3150, but the overbought market conditions and a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator indicates a possible pullback to appear soon. Nevertheless, the overall bias remains bullish as long as the level of 1.3029 is not clearly violated.

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Market Snapshot: Gold is back up to test the trend line

The price of Gold is currently trading at a very important technical resistance level and it is testing the navy trend line dynamic resistance from below. The key resistance is the level of $1,236 and any breakout back above this level would confirm a strength of the bull's camp. The market conditions are oversold, so it supports the bullish case. The next important resistance is seen at the level of $1,257.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil is testing the support

The price of Crude Oil is currently trading at the level of $45.85, which is a technical support for bulls. Due to the overbought market conditions, there is a possibility of a further slide towards the next technical support at the level of $45.00, which is quite close to the golden trend line support as well.

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EUR/GBP intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 18, 2017

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Based on the daily chart, the pair has a prominent Supply Zone between 0.8870 – 0.9050 which applied significant bearish pressure on the pair in the previous visit in

November 2016.

Since May 2017, the EUR/GBP pair has been trending-up above the depicted short-term uptrend.

Few days ago, significant bearish pressure was applied over the pair allowing initial bearish reversal signs to appear.

Note that the price level of 0.8750 (Demand Level) may hinder further bearish decline. That's why, obvious bearish breakdown below of 0.8750 is needed to enhance the bearish side of the market.

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H4

Recent Bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel that was established in June 2017.

Supply Zone existing around 0.8810-0.8860 has succeeded to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. This may indicate a possible bearish reversal opportunity.

Conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards the mentioned supply-zone (0.8810-0.8860) for a valid SELL entry. S/L to be placed above 0.8880.

Projection Target should be expected near the price level of 0.8650 provided that early bearish breakdown of 0.8750 is achieved.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 18, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL opportunity can be offered if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders can have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price zone of 0.7310. S/L should be placed above 0.7400.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 18, 2017

Forex analysis review
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 18, 2017

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 18, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Any bullish breakout above 1.1450 will probably liberate a quick bullish advance towards 1.1500 and 1.1600.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an intraday resistance where recent bearish correction was initiated towards 1.1120.

Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.1120 where the current bullish movement towards 1.1400 was initiated.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone) where a valid SELL entry can be offered if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1260-1.1130 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched when bearish pullback occurs.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 18, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as NAHB Housing Market Index and Import Prices m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1528.

Strong Resistance:1.1521.

Original Resistance: 1.1510.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1499.

Target Inner Area: 1.1472.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1445.

Original Support: 1.1434.

Strong Support: 1.1423.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1416.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 18, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data, such as NAHB Housing Market Index and Import Prices m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.86.

Resistance. 2: 112.64.

Resistance. 1: 112.42.

Support. 1: 112.14.

Support. 2: 111.92.

Support. 3: 111.70.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for July 18, 2017

USD/JPY is currently in a bearish impulsive momentum after getting bounced off from the 114.40 resistance level recently. USD has been losing its grounds due to bad economic reports published recently and it seems to continue further if USD do not provide any positive economic reports in the coming days. Despite Japan observing holiday for Marine Day yesterday, JPY has gained well against USD which does signal the weakness of USD and strength of JPY in the current market scenario. we have USD Import Price report to be published which is expected to show less deficit at -0.2% from the previous value of -0.3% and NAHB Market Index is expected to be unchanged at 67. Though the economic reports are not quite a high impact in nature but can help USD to climb over some pips in the process. Today JPY do not have any economic reports to be published but still dominating the USD on its way and it is expected to continue further this week.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the dynamic level 20 EMA with a daily close below it which signals further bearish pressure in the market for the coming days. The price is currently residing inside a large corrective structure between 110 to 115 and until price breaks below or above this structural support or resistance, the market is expected to corrective in nature. Currently, the price is expected to reach 110.20 support level if the price remains below the 20 EMA with a daily close. The bearish bias will continue further until price breaks above the 20 EMA with a daily close.

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EUR/USD right on resistance, remain bearish

We remain bearish looking to sell below 1.1485 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a push down to at least 1.1419 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is testing major resistance at 97% signaling that a reversal is fast approaching.

Correlation analysis: EUR/USD and USD/CHF are negatively correlated, meaning they move in opposite directions. It's good to see a drop on EUR/USD and a corresponding bounce in USD/CHF.

Sell below 1.1485. Stop loss is at 1.1511. Take profit is at 1.1419.

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USD/CHF bouncing perfectly as expected, remain bullish for a further rise

The price has reached our profit target from Friday and has started to bounce off nicely from our buying area yesterday as expected. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above major support at 0.9606 (Multiple Fibonacci extensions, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to at least 0.9659 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 6% which should hold our bullish move.

Correlation analysis: EUR/USD and USD/CHF are negatively correlated, meaning they move in opposite directions. It's good to see a drop on EUR/USD and a corresponding bounce in USD/CHF.

Buy above 0.9606. Stop loss is at 0.9591. Take profit is at 0.9569.

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NZD/USD approaching strong support, prepare to buy

The price is approaching major support at 0.7244 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and we expect a bounce above this level to at least 0.7299 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is approaching strong support above 3% where we expect a bounce to occur.

Buy above 0.7244. Stop loss is at 0.7213. Take profit is at 0.7299.

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AUD/USD dropping perfectly as expected, remain bearish for a further drop

The price has dropped absolutely perfectly from our selling area as expected and is fast approaching our profit target. We remain bearish looking to sell below 0.7802 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) for a further drop to at least 0.7741 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is dropping nicely from our 96% resistance as expected.

Correlation analysis: AUD weakness is expected today with AUD/JPY similarly testing major resistance and expecting a drop.

Sell below 0.7802. Stop loss is at 0.7843. Take profit is at 0.7741.

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AUD/JPY dropping perfectly as expected, remain bullish for a further drop

The price has reached our selling area and reacted off it perfectly. We remain bearish looking to sell on strength below major resistance at 88.26 (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) for a continued drop to at least 87.27 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) has started dropping from our 98% resistance nicely.

Correlation analysis: AUD weakness is expected today with AUDUSD similarly testing major resistance and expecting a drop.

Sell below 88.26. Stop loss is at 88.68. Take profit is at 87.27.

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USD/JPY approaching major support, prepare to buy

We remain bullish preparing to buy above major support at 111.90 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 114.32 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is approaching major support at 1.2% which corresponds with the bounce we're expecting at price.

Buy above 111.90. Stop loss is at 110.88. Take profit is at 114.32.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is continuing to rise from the level of 0.7250 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7250 which represents the first support on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. The NZD/USD didn't make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.7400 or higher. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7305. So, buy above the level of 0.7305 with the first target at 0.7400 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7450. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7450 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7250, a further decline to 0.7205 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bearish yet. However, stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.7200.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9582. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 0.9582 to a top around 0.9649. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.9582 followed by 0.9552, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.9710. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9582 and 0.9710; for that, we expect a range of 128 pips (0.9710 - 0.9582) at least.
  • On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.9710, which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.9710, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 0.9752 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9550.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 18, 2017

The index is looking to break below 95.10 in an effort to extend weakness towards 94.16. Overall trend remains bearish as long as USDX still trades below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. However, we can expect a recovery to take place towards that moving average before to resume the decline. The next target should be the 94.16 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.57 / 96.24

H1 chart's support levels: 95.10 / 94.16

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.10, take profit is at 94.16 and stop loss is at 96.05.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 18, 2017

The pair is consolidating gains above the support zone of 1.3026 and looks forward to breaking above 1.3106. If that happens, then we would expect to see an advance towards the 1.3238 level in a first degree. To the downside, if 1.3026 gives up, it's likely to see a decline to test the 200 SMA at H1 chart. MACD indicator is in the negative territory, supporting further declines.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3106 / 1.3238

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3026 / 1.2968

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3106, take profit is at 1.3238 and stop loss is at 1.2971.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for July 17, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite bullish recently after breaking and retesting off the support area of 1.1280-1.1360. As of recent weak data from US leaded to further gain on the EUR side. Though the gain was not quite impulsive but consistent in nature. Today EUR Final CPI report was published as expected with an unchanged value at 1.3% and EUR Final Core CPI report was also published as expected with an unchanged value at 1.1%. The unchanged values of EUR CPI reports could not quite help the EUR to gain momentum today but worst USD Empire Estate Manufacturing Index helped EUR with the gains. Today on the USD side USD Empire Estate Manufacturing Index report was published with the worst figure at 9.8 which was expected to be at 15.2 decreasing from the previous figure of 19.8. As of the current situation of the market, Euro is gaining over the US Dollar due to weak economic reports of the US so the EUR gains seem quite temporary and any positive report on the US may flip the gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support area of 1.1280-1.1360 which signals further bullish move with a target towards 1.1610 resistance level. As the price remains above the support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further but steady gain on the EUR side is expected along the way. The market is quite non-volatile in nature which shows the dominating nature of the bulls in the market to sustain further in the coming days.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 17, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair tests the critical resistance at 147.65 now which represents the neckline of the double bottom pattern. As we mentioned in our last reports, breaching this level will stop the expected decline in our last reports and will push the price to 149.00 and then 150.95 on the near-term basis. Now, the bearish trend remains valid on condition of holding below 147.65, supported by stochastic reach to the overbought levels. Now we are waiting until 144.00 is reached and then 142.65 is hit as main targets for the suggested bearish wave. The expected trading range for today is between 149.00 and 144.00

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Daily analysis of Gold for July 17, 2017

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Overview

Gold has been trading higher since the start of this week. The metal has been able to breach 1,229.32 level and hold above it, which supports the outlook for a further bullish wave on the short-term basis. This opens the way to head towards 1,254.56 that represents our next main target. The price gets momentum through the inverted head-and-shoulders' pattern that was completed previously and appears on chart. Therefore, we still foresee the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions supported by the EMA50. Please note that stochastic current negativity might push the price to retest the breached neckline that is turning into support now at 1,223.50 before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1,223.50 support and 1,250.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 17, 2017

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Overview

Silver price bounced bullishly after 15.65 and has been trying to hold against the recent dip moves. Now the price is heading towards our first target at 16.56. The price is supported by the rise that appears on stochastic. Therefore, our positive overview will remain valid and active in the upcoming sessions conditioned by the price stability above 15.49 level. Let me remind you that breaching the targeted level will extend silver price gains to reach 17.43 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between 15.80 support and 16.30 resistance.

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