Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 11, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 114.00. The pair is consolidating above the key support at 114.00, which should limit the downside potential. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Hence, as long as 114 holds on the downside, look for a further upside to 114.90 and even to 115.25 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 114.00 with a target at 113.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : BUY , Stop Loss: 114, Take Profit: 114.90

Resistance levels: 114.90, 115.25, and 115.50

Support levels: 113.50,113.10, and 112.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 11, 2017

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We will retain our bullish outlook for the pair predicted yesterday. The pair is trading above the rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality area at 50. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.9655.

Therefore, as long as this key level is not broken, we expect a further rise to 0.9700 and even to 0.9730 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9655, Take Profit: 0.9700

Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9730, and 0.9775

Support levels: 0.9625, 0.9605, and 0.9590

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 11, 2017

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Our upside take profit target which we placed at 147.60 has been hit. The pair rebounded after hitting today's top, but a downside movement should be limited. The pair remains above its horizontal support at 146.46, and is expected to look for a higher top. The relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50, showing a lack of momentum. Even though a continuation of the consolidation at the current stage cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

As long as 146.45 is not broken down, a further advance is preferred with 147.60 and 148.00 as targets.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 146.45 with the target at 146.00.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 146.45, Take Profit: 147.60.

Resistance levels: 147.60, 148.00, and 148.70

Support levels: 146.00, 145.55, and 145.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 11, 2017

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Our both targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit precisely as expected. NZD/USD is still trading downward and is likely to continue its movement. The pair broke below the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands, which indicated the continuation of bearish trend. The relative strength index is heading downward.

Hence, as long as 0.7245 holds on the upside, look for a further decline to 0.7185 and even to 0.7170 in extension.

Strategy: SELL Stop Loss: 0.7245 Take Profit: 0.7185

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7260, 0.7280, and 0.7305

Support levels: 0.7185, 0.7170, and 0.7145

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GBP/USD approaching major support, prepare to buy

Price is approaching major support at 1.2817 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a nice bounce above this level to push price towards 1.3029 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing support above 4.8% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 1.2817. Stop loss at 1.2741. Take profit at 1.3029.

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USD/CHF profit target reached again, prepare to sell

Price has continued its rise perfectly as expected and has reached our profit target again for the 3rd time in a row. We prepare to sell below 0.9679 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a drop towards 0.9630 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a drop from.

Correlation analysis: EUR/USD and USD/CHF are strongly negatively correlated. Hence it is good that we expect a drop on USD/CHF and a bounce on EUR/USD as this shows that they are moving in tandem.

Sell below 0.9679. Stop loss at 0.9701. Take profit at 0.9630.

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USD/JPY reacting nicely off our selling area, remain bearish

Price has rose and reacted off our selling area as expected. We remain bearish below major resistance at 114.32 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish divergence) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push price down to at least 111.77 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% and we expect a drop from this level soon. We can also see bearish divergence vs price signalling that a reversal is fast impending.

Sell below 114.32. Stop loss at 115.09. Take profit at 111.77.

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EUR/USD prepare to buy for a push up

Price has dropped nicely towards our profit target. We prepare to buy above 1.1379 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Elliott wave theory) for a bounce up towards 1.1447 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, Elliott wave theory).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 2.7% where we expect a bounce from.

Correlation analysis: EUR/USD and USD/CHF are strongly negatively correlated. Hence it is good that we expect a drop on USD/CHF and a bounce on EUR/USD as this shows that they are moving in tandem.

Buy above 1.1379. Stop loss at 1.1355. Take profit at 1.1447.

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Is EUR/USD going to take off? | Daily Video Technical Analysis | 11th July 2017

It looks like EURUSD is forming a really nice bounce. We prepare to jump on board for the rise!

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EUR/USD analysis for July 11, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1400. According to the 30M time frame, I found a triple bottom in the background and broken supply trendline, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1425.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1400

R2: 1.1405

R3: 1.1415

Support levels:

S1: 1.1383

S2: 1.1375

S3: 1.1365

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 11, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2909. According to the 1H time frame, I found a completed double bottom formation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities due to a breakout of the neckline. The upward projection is set at the price of 1.2965.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2910

R2: 1.2925

R3: 1.2945

Support levels:

S1: 1.2875

S2: 1.2855

S3: 1.2840

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for July 11, 2017

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Wave summary:

Finally, we have seen a break above resistance at 1.5712, which confirms continuation higher towards the next upside target near 1.6232 and above. Support is now seen at the former resistance at 1.5712 which now has switched to support.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5645 and will move our stop higher to 1.5575. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5712 and use the same stop.

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Global macro overview for 11/07/2017

Global macro overview for 11/07/2017:

Recent economic data from the UK is not optimistic and the gap in economic expansion between the Eurozone and the UK is getting bigger. The recent comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney regarding a possible interest rate hike do not have any support in underlying economic data. This is why the forecast for the British Pound is being perceived in the darkest colors. The GBP/USD pair is likely to fall on weakening UK economy, which will force the market to limit the probability of a rate hike. The pound sterling would be particularly sensitive to easing wage growth. Their negative dynamics in real terms is an obvious indication of the basic pillar of the British economy: consumption.

Today, the financial markets will have a chance to respond to two important speeches. The first will be made by Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane, who has recently spoken out for an interest rate hike. Maintaining his current point of view will not be a surprise. More information may include the words of BoE Vice Governor Ben Broadbent, who represents the neutral part of the MPC. The instability of the political scene after the June election and the fact that the Brexit process will be painful can also be reminded by Theresa May in her speech to celebrate the anniversary of taking office. The BBC reported yesterday that its key point would be to turn to other political factions to submit their proposals regarding the context of the EU Brexit negotiations.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on H4 time frame before the speeches are concluded. The market is trading in a downward sloping parallel channel between the levels of 1.2853 - 1.3029. In case of any hawkish comments from any of BoE dissidents, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2982, but the overall bias remains bearish.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 11, 2017

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Wave summary:

The expected rally higher towards 131.21 continues to unfold as expected. Once the target at 131.21 has been tested, it will be time to look for a correction towards at least 127.97 and possibly even closer to 125.82.

Trading recommendation:

Look for a EUR selling opportunity near 131.21

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Trading plan for 11/07/2017

Trading plan for 11/07/2017:

The US Dollar strengthened a little overnight. The biggest move is noticeable at JPY and NZD. The other main currencies remain stable. Sentiment in the stock markets at the turn of the season remains unambiguously positive. Oil, gold, and copper are relatively stable overnight, but the pressure on the precious metals is maintained and sentiment towards energy commodities is clearly improving.

On Tuesday 11th of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but global investors will pay attention to Industrial production data from Italy, Housing Starts data from Canada and JOLTs Job Openings data from the US. Moreover, some central bank policy members will be speaking during the day. The first one to speak is FOMC member John C. Williams, then MPC member Andy Haldane, then BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent and at the end of the day FOMC member Lael Brainard will give a speech.

EUR/USD analysis for 11/07/2017:

The Industrial Production data from Italy is scheduled for release at 08:00 am GMT and market participants expect a solid increase in production from the level of -0.4% to 0.5% for the reported month. So, despite the fact, that Europe's third-largest economy continues to face headwinds, market participants are prepared for an upbeat data from this sector of the Italian economy. If so, the news will offer another reason to project that the Eurozone's recovery will endure. The yearly data supports this view as well because on a yearly basis the industrial output should increase from 1.0% to 2.1%, so this recovery might not be just a temporary coincidence. Moreover, if the data beats the consensus, the industrial output will double the previous annual gain.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The price is still trading sideway between the technical support at the level of 1.1378 and technical resistance at the level of 1.1444. The market conditions are oversold, but the momentum indicator is struggling to break out above the fifty level. Only a better than expected data might trigger another move upward in order to test the technical resistance at the level of 1.4444.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil rebounds from oversold levels

Despite yesterday's marginal new low at the level of $43.64, the price of Crude Oil managed to bounce towards the next technical resistance at the level of $45.07. Nevertheless, the market is still trading below the golden trend line and the momentum indicator can not break out above the fifty level. All it means, the bounce might be short-lived and the price might get back to downtrend any time.

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Market Snapshot: NZD/USD is back under the trend line

The upside breakout above the golden trend line around the level of 0.7300 was short-lived as the price only managed to make another marginal high at the level of 0.7345. Currently, the price got back under the trend line and it looks like the bears want to test the technical support at the level of 0.7186. Visible negative divergence supports the view.

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Global macro overview for 11/07/2017

Global macro overview for 11/07/2017:

Eurozone Sentix Investors Confidence Index remains close to 10-year high after the latest data. The index dropped 0.1 points to 28.3 in June, following a reading of 28.4 in the previous month and beating forecasts for a decline to 28.1.Moreover, investors' assessment of the current situation increased for the seventh consecutive time, reaching 37.3 points, the highest level in nearly 10 years. This data is another proof that the Eurozone economic momentum strongly improved and it is on a good way to beat the second quarter's GDP estimates. According to the recent business surveys, the Eurozone second-quarter expansion was the fastest in six years, For example, the IHS Markit Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 56.3 in June, which was slightly below April and May's six-year record highs of 56.8 points (any figure above 50 signals expansion in the economy, whereas a reading below that level points to contraction). Moreover, Markit's June retail business survey showed that Eurozone retail sales increased to nearly two-year highs in June, led by sharp gains in Germany and France, the region's top two economies.

According to the latest European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, ECB President Mario Draghi has expressed confidence in the recovery and has assured markets that ultra-loose policy would remain in effect for the foreseeable future. His statement was backed up by ECB's chief economist Peter Praet later last week.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bulls tried three times to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 0.8880, but so far no avail. Currently, the price is decreasing towards the next technical support at the level of 0.8814 mainly due to the overbought market conditions.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 11, 2017

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Technical analysis of gold for July 11, 2017

Technical analysis of USDX for July 11, 2017

The Dollar index remains below the 96.30-96.50 resistance area. The trend is neutral. Price has made a higher low but bulls need to make a higher high in order to start a new upward move targeting 98.

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Red line - resistance

The Dollar index is trying to approach the resistance trend line at 96.50. The trend is neutral as price mainly moves sideways. Support is at 95.75 and resistance at 96.30. Bulls need to break above 96.30 otherwise a rejection here might lead to a push lower towards 94.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index is showing reversal signs off the lower channel boundary. I expect a strong bounce off these levels towards the upper channel boundary or at least towards the Kumo (cloud) lower boundary at 98.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 11, 2017

Gold price continues to trade above $1,200 but remains in a bearish trend. There is a wedge pattern being formed. A daily close above $1,217 will open the way for a big bounce at least towards $1,250.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price remains below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. There are bullish divergence signs in the 4-hour chart. However, the trend remains bearish as long as the price is below $1,235. Support is at $1,205.

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Red lines - wedge pattern

Both daily price candles and the RSI (5) are forming bullish wedge patterns. Traders need to be very cautious as I believe once the wedge patterns break we are going to see a big upward move at least towards $1,250. I remain longer-term bullish.

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Divergence Analysis GBP / USD on July 11

4h

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The price decline continues as shown in the 4-hour chart towards the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2707, after the formation of the bearish divergence.

Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator: the final peak of quotations drove lower than the previous one which does not correspond to the final highs of the indicator. Crossing over the last peak of the divergence enables us to rely on the resumption of the growth process through the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3076. The Fibonacci level of 100.0% will work in favor of the British currency.

Daily

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In the 24-hour chart, the formation of the bearish divergence is followed by the downward movement towards the correction level of Fibo 200.0% - 1.2653. Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator: the last peak of price appeared to be slightly lower than the previous one, and on the other hand, the final peak of the indicator is higher. On July 11 there are no new emerging divergences for any indicator. Passing through the last peak of the divergence will work in favor of the British pound and resume growth towards the correction level of 161.8% - 1.3105.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 11, 2017

EUR has been gaining very impulsively over JPY recently and the gain seems to continue further in the coming days. Due to recent bad economic reports, JPY has failed to show any gain over EUR which resulted to further bullish move in this pair without any retracement along the way. Yesterday JPY Bank Lending report showed a slight growth to 3.3% from previous value of 3.2%, Core Machinery Orders report showed a decrease to -3.6% from previous value of -3.1% which is expected to increase to 1.7%, Current Account report was published with a decreased figure of 1.40T from previous value of 1.81T which was expected to be at 1.63T and Economic Watchers Sentiment showed an increase to 50.0 from previous value of 48.6 which was expected to be at 49.0. Today JPY had M2 Money Stock report which showed an increase to 3.9% from the previous value of 3.8% and Prelim Machine Tool Orders also showed an increase to 31.1% from the previous value of 24.5%. On the EUR side, today we have Italian Industrial Production report is expected to show a growth to 0.5% from previous value of -0.4%. To sum up, due to bad economic reports JPY has been losing grounds against EUR recently which is expected to continue further as despite the positive JPY reports today JPY is still not showing any remarkable gain which signals to further gain on the EUR in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has been quite impulsive and non-volatile on the gains after the break above the 125.80 resistance level and proceeding towards 132.20 resistance level. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA the bullish bias is expected to continue with a recent target towards 132.20 resistance level.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for July 11, 2017

USD/JPY is currently at the edge of the resistance area of 114.40-115.00. JPY has lost grounds against USD due to bad economic reports published recently. Yesterday JPY Bank Lending report was published with an increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.2%, Core Machinery Orders has decreased to -3.6% from previous value of -3.1% which was expected to rise to 1.7% and Current Account report also showed decrease to 1.40T from 1.81T which was expected to be at 1.63T but Economy Watchers Sentiment showed an increase to 50.0 from 48.6 which was expected to be at 49.0. Today JPY M2 Money Stock report was published with an increased value at 3.9% which previously was at 3.8% and Prelim Machine Tool Orders was rise to 31.1% from 24.5%. Despite the positive economic reports, today JPY could not gain over USD yet today which signals the strength of USD over JPY and further gains on the USD side in the coming days. On the USD side, today JOLTS Job Opening report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 5.98M from previous value of 6.04M, Final Wholesale Inventories is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% and FOMC Member Brainard will speak about nation's key interest rates and future monetary policies. A good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market during the US economic events today and any positive report on USD side will result in further gains against JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing at the edge of resistance area of 114.40-115.00. As of the recent gains on the USD against JPY further bullish move is expected in this pair but a daily close above 115.00 will confirm the further bullish run with a target towards 120.00 resistance area. On the other hand, if the price rejects off the resistance area of 114.40-115.00 then we might see further bearish move in this pair with a target towards 110.20. The bullish bias is expected to continue until price breaks below the dynamic support of 20 EMA with a daily close.

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Candlestick analysis of NZD / USD for July 10

4h

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The bear formation of the "Falling Star" and the release of quotations from the Fibo level of 200.0% - 0.7289 made it possible to turn in favor of the US dollar and begin a decline in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 0.7199. The formation of a bull candle on July 10 will allow traders to expect the pair to turn in favor of the New Zealand currency and return to the Fibo level of 200.0%. Such a formation will be identified as a trend, based on the direction of the equidistant channel. Strengthening the rate above the correction level of 200.0% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 261.8% - 0.7435.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from April 24, 2017 and May 11.

Daily

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Another bovine candlestick formation "Harami", formed on a 24-hour chart, suspended the drop in quotations for a while. Passing a pair of low "Harami" or a bear formation will allow the expected continuation of the fall of quotations in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% - 0.7172. "Harami" can also work in favor of the New Zealand currency, but so far no reversal. The formation of a new, stronger, bullish formation will again allow us to expect a turn in favor of New Zealand's currency and some growth towards the correction level of 0.0% -0.7483.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 24, 2015 and September 8, 2016.

Specification:

Weak candle formations will be marked by the usual text and the size of the arrows.

Strong candle formations will be marked by a more bold text and a larger size of arrows.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 11, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Italian Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1452.

Strong Resistance:1.1445.

Original Resistance: 1.1434.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1423.

Target Inner Area: 1.1396.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1369.

Original Support: 1.1358.

Strong Support: 1.1347.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1340.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 11, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y and M2 Money Stock y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.71.

Resistance. 2: 114.48.

Resistance. 1: 114.26.

Support. 1: 113.97.

Support. 2: 113.75.

Support. 3: 113.53.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 11, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still trading around the area of 0.7250 and 0.7343. Thus, it should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7205 which represents a pivot point. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.7205. The price has been in a bullish channel this week. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7205. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.7205, the market is still in an uptrend. The trend is still strong above the moving average. The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements in the last two days. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7159-0.7205 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7344 and 0.7400. However, the stop loss should be placed at the price of 0.7205.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 11, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is still continuing to rise from the level of 0.9623 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.9623 which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9666. So, buy above the level of 0.9623 with the first target at 0.9698 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.9737 (the double top). Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.9737 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9623, a further decline to 0.9575 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 11, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1300) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Any bullish breakout above 1.1300 will probably liberate a quick bullish advance towards 1.1495 and 1.1600.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an intraday resistance where recent bearish correction was initiated towards 1.1120.

The evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.1120 where the current bullish movement towards 1.1400 was initiated.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415 (Daily Supply-Zone) where a valid SELL entry can be offered if the current bearish rejection is maintained (a Double-Top pattern).

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1260-1.1130 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched for bullish rejection.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 11, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL opportunity were expressed on June 14.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders could have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price level of 0.7310. S/L should be placed above 0.7400.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 11, 2017

USDX was unchanged during Monday and it's looking to break above the resistance zone of 96.24, where it's also located the 200 SMA at H1 chart. If that happens, we might expect further gains to take place towards 96.77. To the downside, the nearest support is located around 95.77 and a break below it should expose the 95.10 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20

H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.77, take profit is at 95.10 and stop loss is at 96.42.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 11, 2017

A thin liquidity day we had in the markets and the GBP/USD pair didn't have much action during Monday. An ongoing consolidation below the 200 SMA is taking place and one could expect a kind of breakout below Monday's lows in order to test the 1.2756 level as the next support to the downside. MACD indicator remains in favor of the bullish bias.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3011 / 1.3105

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2923 / 1.2756

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3011, take profit is at 1.3105 and stop loss is at 1.2918.

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Bank of Canada Makes the Loonie a Favorite

Despite the mixed dynamics of oil, the Canadian dollar strengthened against its US namesake by more than 6% in the last two months.

At a time when other central banks are only hinting normalization, the BOC is ready to take the path of monetary tightening.

The dynamics of inflation and overnight rates of BoC

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Source: Trading Economics.

At the same time, talk about the temporary nature of CPI slowing has become more frequent. This was mentioned by the heads of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, so why is the idea not supported by everyone else? In addition, the Bank of Canada notes a reduction in excess capacity in the local economy and acknowledges a high debt of households (about 170% of disposable income). Meanwhile, the declining risks of introducing a tax in the United States border and the revision the terms of agreements within NAFTA frees the hands of the central bank.

The important factor will not be an increase in the overnight rates, as it is already priced in the quotes of "loonie", but the comments of Stephen Poloz. Markets expect that policymaker will not stop at this and before the year-end will take another step ( the odds of such an outcome is estimated by derivatives to be at 70%). Investors trying to read between the lines will try to determine whether the tightening of monetary policy will be a long-running idea or the BOC's goal is to bring the rate to the 2015 level, after which there will be a prolonged pause. On the first case, one should not count on a deep USD/ CAD correction. In the second case, the rollback may be more significant. The reason is profit taking on the background of the principle of "sell on rumors, buy on facts."

It is impossible to rule out the possibility of maintaining the old parameters of the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, even though it looks scanty. However, such scenario will result to a sharp decline of the "loonie" due to dashed hopes for a monetary tightening.

Technically, after reaching the target by 113% of the "Shark Pattern", it increased the probability of correction of USC/CAD in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave within the transformation of the model above at 5-0. Thus, the key resistance levels are located near the marks 1.308 and 1.3215. The inability of the bulls to break above will be a signal to open short positions.

USD / CAD, the daily chart

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Analysis of USD / JPY Divergences for July 10

4h

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The pair USD / JPY on the 4-hour chart continues the growth process towards the Fibo level of 100.0% - 114.36 on the new Fibo-levels grid. The retracement of the pair on July 10 from the correction level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the Japanese currency and a slight drop towards the correctional level of 76.4% - 113.04. Maturing divergences are not visible in any indicator. Fixing the quotes above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the pair's chances for further growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% - 117.76.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair completed the growth to the correction level of 23.6% - 114.07. There are no maturing divergences in any indicator. The fall of the pair's rate from the Fibo level of 23.6% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the Japanese yen and a slight drop towards the corrective level of 38.2% - 111.17. Fixing the quotes above the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the probability of continued growth of the pair towards the next correction level of 0.0% - 118.66.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for July 10

4h

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The new bearish divergence allowed the pair GBP / USD to turn in favor of the US currency and begin a decline in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2707. Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator: The last peak of quotations turned out to be lower than the previous one, which does not correspond to the last peak of the indicator. Passing the last peak of the divergence will allow traders to count on the resumption of the growth process in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.3076 and will cancel the divergence. Decrease of quotations from the correction level of 100.0% will similarly work in favor of the pound sterling.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, after the formation of the bearish divergence, the decline continues to the corrective level of 200.0% - 1.2653. Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator: The last peak of the quotation was slightly lower than the previous one, which does not correspond to the indicator peaks. On July 10, there are no new maturing divergences in any indicator. Passage of the last peak of the divergence will work in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.3105.

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