Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 25, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weak EUR sentiment and Japan's export sales and sterling sales on retreating GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD crosses. But GBP/USD losses are tempered by sterling demand on buoyant GBP/JPY cross amid the positive risk sentiment and sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the buoyant USD/JPY undertone and demand from Japanese importers.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at the overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.505. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.


Resistance levels:

179.15

179.90

180.35

Support levels:

176.75

175.80

175.30


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 25, 2014

General overview for 25/09/2014 12:10 CET

The purple impulsive count has been invalidated as wave (4) overlapped wave (1), so now the main count is the blue impulsive count. The corrective cycle looks to be completed and the pair might be ready to rebound and continue to move higher, but please notice, that any violation of the level of 138.25 invalidates this outlook. The first clue that the uptrend will be continued comes with the golden trendline breakout and then intraday resistance level breakout as well. Moreover, please be aware that the price is forming a falling wedge pattern as well.


Support/Resistance:

141.22- Swing High|WR1|

140.21 - Intraday Resistance

139.84 - Weekly Pivot

138.83 - Intraday Support

138.46 - WS1

138.25 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

137.12 - WS2


Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy positions only if the golden trendline is broken with SL below the level of 138.25 and TP open for now. Otherwise please refrain from opening positions.


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#USDX Technical analysis for September 25, 2014

The Dollar index has made a break out above resistance levels yesterday and is very strong moving higher above 85. This break out is very important as many traders have bet against it and not only bulls are buying this but also bears whith their stops getting hit. The 85 price level was a very important long-term resistance.


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Red line = resistance


The short-term chart is fully bullish once again as price has broken above the 84.80 resistance and is now making new highs. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. The buy signal was given once we broke above 84.80 and our target is now near 86 for the short term.


usdxd.jpg

Red line = resistance


The daily chart remains fully bullish and specially now that we have broken above the long-term resistance levels we could see this rally continue. It is important for the week to close above 85 and to continue closing higher above 85 and not pulling back below 84.50. We could see a back test of the break out area at 85 but right now anything deeper that 84.50 could signal a false break out. This would be an extremely bearish signal. In conclusion, we remain bullish.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 25 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6151


R2: 1.6107


R1: 1.6062


Current spot: 160.03


S1: 1.5970


S2: 1.5940


S3: 1.5912


Technical summary:


We have finally seen the expected acceleration higher. The base-channel resistance-line is now broken and should provide even more upside acceleration towards the 1.6203 on the way higher towards 1.6407. In the longer term, we are looking for much higher levels. In the short term, we expect support at 1.5970 to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 1.6203, but even if support at 1.5970 is broken, it should only cause a slightly lower decline to 1.5940 before the next rally higher sets in.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5826 and we will move our stop to break-even. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5970 with the same stop at 1.5826.


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Gold Wave analysis for September 25, 2014

Gold price has given a short-term sell signal yesterday by breaking below $1,222. Earlier today, it has also broken below support at $1,215. Right now, Gold price is making new lows and following our expected move lower towards $1,200-$1,190. We noted in our previous analysis that the upward bounce was of a corrective form and that downward pressures were going to resume.


goldh4.jpg

Green line = price channel


Gold price did not manage to bounce higher towards our $1,240-50 target and gave several sell signals yesterday by breaking below support at $1.215. The trend remains clearly bearish as price is below the Ichimoku cloud and still inside the downward sloping channel.


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Our longer-term view remains bearish and that is why we prefer not to trade any upside bounce but follow the trend on signs of weakness. The long-term taret I have is at $1,000 and we will have confirmation for that level when we break below the lows at $1,180. We are very close to testing this level. We remain bearish and a daily close below $1,208 will push gold price towards $1,180.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 25 - 2014

2014-09-25-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 139.57


R2: 139.43


R1: 139.27


Current spot: 139.14


S1: 139.00


S2: 138.93


S3: 138.78


Technical summary:


The correction from 141.22 has become deeper and more complex than first expected, but it does not alter our count, that this is a wave two correction and that the downside potential is limited from here. We will be looking for a break above minor resistance at 139.43 as the first indication, that blue wave ii is over, while a break above short-term important resistance at 139.70 confirms the bottom for a new rally back to 141.22 on the way higher to 143.79.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 139.05 was hit for a very nice profit. We will buy EUR again here at 139.14 with a stop at 138.40.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 25, 2014

EUR/USD: This pair has continued its weakness – amidst the bearish outlook. The price is now trading below the resistance line at 1.2800, going towards another support line at 1.2750. Our target for the week was 1.2800, which has already been breached by the price, but the market may go further downwards from here.


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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has been able to continue its bullish journey, going above the support level at 0.9400 and breaking above it. The price is now going towards the next target at the resistance level of 0.9500. Some fundamental figures would be released today and they would have impact on the markets.


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GBP/USD: This is a bullish market – although the bullish energy is low. As it was said earlier this week, as long as the Cable trades above the accumulation territory at 1.6300, it would be thought that the bullish signal is OK. The signal would be rendered useless only when the market goes below that accumulation territory.


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USD/JPY: Here, the price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. This shows that the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market is still valid. While the price could still test the supply level at 109.50, there is also a risk of a large pullback in the market.


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EUR/JPY: The persistent selling pressure on this currency trading instrument has posed a threat on the recent bullish scenario in the market. The RSI period 14 has already gone below the level 50, and should the price cross below the demand zone at 139.00, it would mean the beginning of a serious bearish journey.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 25, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as M3 Money Supply y/y, Private Loans y/y, Italian Retail Sales m/m. The US will release economic data too such as the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, Flash Services PMI,Natural Gas Storage, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2840.

Strong Resistance:1.2833.

Original Resistance: 1.2820.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2807.

Target Inner Area: 1.2777.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2747.

Original Support: 1.2734.

Strong Support: 1.2721.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2714.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 25, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y, and the US will release some economic data such as Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, Flash Services PMI,Natural Gas Storage. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.68.

Resistance. 2: 109.47.

Resistance. 1: 109.25.

Support. 1: 108.99.

Support. 2: 108.77.

Support. 3: 108.56.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of Silver for September 25, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver remains more or less unchanged structurally, and still trading below $18.00 levels as depicted on the 1H chart view. The metal seems to be pulling back from fibonacci 0.382 resistance of the drop between $18.90 and $17.30 levels as seen here. Furthermore, Silver would remain in the sell zone till prices are below $18.50/60 mark. The line of resistance is now passing just below the $18.40 levels and only a break above could bring back control to bulls. The $18.30/40 region remains ideal to initiate short positions, on a bearish signal appearance. Resistance remains at $18.60/90 levels while interim support is at $17.30 for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Watch out for a reaction at $18.40 levels.


Good luck!






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USDX: Daily analysis for September 25, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX is trying to make a breakout on the resistance level of 85.18 and now the USDX is forming a bullish pattern. If successful, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 86.20, that would be a strong bullish consolidation in the long term for this instrument. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.


1411595416_USDXDaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX has made a rebound on the support level of 84.52, so far, the USDX is trying to break out the resistance level of 85.06. If successful, the next target would be the 86.25 level, where the bullish trend line is. However, the USDX could make a pullback at current levels. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.


1411595425_USDXH4.png

H1 chart: The USDX is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 84.81. If the USDX manages to consolidate above the 85.03 level, the next target would be the resistance level of 85.27, but we must remember that the USDX is overbought in this chart. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.


1411595435_USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.03, take profit is at 85.27, and stop loss is at 84.81.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 25, 2014

Daily chart: The GBP/USD continues to try to strengthen the bullish pattern above the support level of 1.6326. Probably for the rest of the week, the pair continues to move in the range below the resistance level of 1.6447. If the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6326, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6235. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


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H4 chart: This pair has formed a fractal below the resistance level of 1.6435. The GBP/USD may fall to the support level of 1.6247 in the coming hours, because this pair still remains below the 200 SMA. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6247, the next target would be the 1.6051 level. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


1411595369_GBPUSDH4.png


H1 chart: The GBP/USD has had a sharp decline from the level of 1.6415 and now this pair is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.6375. The GBP/USD is trying to form a lower low pattern above the 200 SMA. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6338, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6291. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6375, take profit is at 1.6419, and stop loss is at 1.6329.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 24, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the broad USD strength amid escalation of risk aversion as the U.S. stepped up its involvement in Syria in the fight against Islamic State militants. USD sentiment is also boosted by the Markit flash U.S. September manufacturing PMI coming in at 57.9, unchanged versus August's reading and keeping the index at a 52-month high and rise in U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index to 14 in September from 12 in August. USD/JPY is also supported by the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japan importers. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.527% versus 2.567% late Monday), selling of yen crosses amid decreased risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 9.06% to 14.93, S&P 500 fell 0.58% overnight) as investors' concern mount over global economic growth after a gauge of activity in the eurozone's manufacturing and services sectors for September fell to its lowest level for the year.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.10 and the second target at 109.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 108.15. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.65. The pivot point is at 108.45.


Resistance levels:

109.10

109.45

110


Support levels:

108.15

107.65

107.10


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 24, 2014

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range.It is supported by the broad USD strength amid escalation of risk aversion as the U.S. stepped up its involvement in Syria in the fight against Islamic State militants. USD sentiment is also boosted by Markit flash U.S. September manufacturing PMI coming in at 57.9, unchanged versus August's reading and keeping the index at a 52-month high amd rise in U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index to 14 in September from 12 in August., contagion from weak EUR on CHF and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical Comments:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9460 and the second target at 0.9480. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9380. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9340. The pivot point is at 0.9400.


Resistance levels:

0.9460

0.9480

0.9500



Support levels:


0.9380

0.9340

0.9295


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 24, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range. It is supported by the buoyant USD/JPY undertone, GBP demand on buoyant GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD crosses; sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross; expectations of rate increases from Bank of England early 2015 and demand from Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by the weak EUR sentiment and Japanese export sales.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing; but stochastics is bearish at the overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 177.25. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 176.75. The pivot point is at 178.50.


Resistance levels:

179.15

179.90

180.35

Support levels:

177.25

176.75

175.80


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 24, 2014

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Fundamental Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting one-year low at 0.8040 on Tuesday. It is undermined by the Fonterra Co-Operative Group Ltd. lowering its forecast for payouts to farmers to NZ$5.30 per kilogram of milk solids from a prior forecast of NZ$6.00 and signaling further downside risk amid declines in global dairy prices , Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. But NZD sentiment are soothed by the narrower-than-expected New Zealand August trade deficit of NZ$472 million (versus forecast NZ$1.1 billion deficit). NZD/USD losses are also tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at the oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8035. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.800. The pivot point stands at 0.8095. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8145 and the second target at 0.8180.


Resistance levels:

0.8145

0.8180

0.82


Support levels:

0.8035

0.800

0.7975


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