Bitcoin analysis for April 10, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The need for cryptocurrency self-regulation in South Korea is rising as banks still refuse to issue new virtual accounts for most cryptoexchanges. The Korean Blockchain Association is preparing self-regulatory standards. Thirty-three exchanges were asked to undergo a review; twenty-three agreed but ten refused, according to the local media. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that the price is trading in the tight trading range between the price of 6.718 (resistance) and the price of $6.579 (support). Since the price is trading near the resistance, my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.579, $6.432, and at the price of $6.350.

Support/Resistance

$6.718 – Intraday resistance

$6.579– Intraday support

$6.579 – Objective target 1

$6.350 – Objective target 2

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 10, 2018

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Overview

Gold price shows new attempts to breach 1335.40 now, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as confirming the breach will open the way to turn to rise and regain the main bullish trend. Until now, we will keep the negative scenario unless the price settled above 1335.40, supported by stochastic negativity, reminding you that our main waited target is located at 1316.48. The expected trading range for today is between the 1316.00 support and the 1345.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 10, 2018

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Overview

According to the chart, Silver price shows more sideways trading and the price is still confined between the 16.15 support and the 16.80 resistance, while the contradiction continues to appear between stochastic positivity and the EMA50 negativity. Therefore, the sideways range will remain dominant until the price manages to breach one of the above mentioned levels, noting that the details of the expected targets after the breach are explained in our previous reports. The expected trading range for today is between the 16.30 support and the 16.60 resistance.

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Analysis of Gold for April 10, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,338.70. Anyway, according to the 1H time – frame, I found a rising wedge in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of lower diagonal to conirm a rising wedge pattern. Watch for selling oppostunities with the downward target at the price of $1,320.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,340.55

R2: $1,344.82

R3: $1,351.65

Support levels:

S1: $1,329.45

S2: $1,322.62

S3: $1,318.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 10, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 106.98. According to the 4H time frame, I found that price rejected from the support (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%) at the level of 106.66, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 107.47.

Resistance levels:

R1: 107.10

R2: 107.44

R3: 107.66

Support levels:

S1: 106.50

S2: 106.26

S3: 105.95

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 10, 2018

Bitcoin is still quite non-volatile with the bearish pressure recently. The price is expected to proceed lower towards $5,000-$5,500 price area. The impulsive bearish price action with confluence to the dynamic level of 20 EMA and Tenkan line is currently indicating further bearish pressure that will lead to much lower price action in the coming days. Despite lack of fundamental news on the Bitcoin or crypto trading, certain bearish pressure is expected to be the retracement before the bounce higher off the support area. The recent news about George Soros investing in crypto trading has provided enough evidence to market participants and speculators about reliability of crypto trading but the news failed to have an immediate impact on the price of Bitcoin. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to proceed towards the $5,000-$5,500 price area and after that a bounce is expected with bullish intervention with a target towards $7,000 in the future.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 10, 2018

EUR/JPY

The market is bullish in the short term. There is a slow and gradual bullish movement in the market, which means the supply zones at 132.00, 132.50 and 133.50 would be tested before the end of this week. The bullish bias would become stronger as more and more buyers get into the markets.

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The supply zones at 131.50, 132.00 and 132.50 could be reached when a bullish movement begins. Right now, the risk of a large pullback is low, unless there is a fundamental factor which negates the bullish expectation.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 10, 2018

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is bearish in the long term, and bullish in the short term. Much did not happen on Monday, but a directional movement is anticipated, which would result in either a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, or a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, especially in the 4-hour chart. A rise in volatility is in the offing.

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There is currently a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and thus, price is expected to go further upwards, reaching other supply levels at 107.50 and 108.00. However, a strong pullback is also a possibility.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 10, 2018

USD/CHF

The market has continued coming downwards – a move that was started last Friday. The downwards movement is becoming serious and a threat to the recent short-term bullishness in the market. A movement below the support level at 0.9500 will result in a bearish bias, which means the market will move further southwards.

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On the other hand, a rally from here would remove a possibility of a bearish bias from the market, thus saving the recent bullishness. Today and tomorrow will show what will eventually happen.

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Global macro overview for 10/04/2018

It may seem that Monday will not be a particularly exciting trading day as there were basically two important readings: Germany's foreign trade for February (exports and imports were clearly disappointing) and the Sentix index for the Euro Zone. This slightly disappeared from the forecasts as it dropped from 24 points not to 20.3 points, but to 19.6 points.

These facts, however, were not groundbreaking. There were a few other news items on the geopolitical side. The US has tightened economic sanctions for Russia, in particular involving 14 companies and 24 businessmen (personally). Official reasons are always the same: Russia is supposed to lead a harmful international policy, including in Syria or Ukraine (in Donbass). In any case, after these decisions, the ruble fell sharply on value and the MOEX Russia Index plunged 8.3% - the biggest one day fall since the 2014 Crimean crisis.

The sell-off is driven by rising geopolitical tension and rapidly escalating concerns amongst investors that more Russian companies could be targeted by the US. Speaking this morning Bank of Russia Governor Nabiullina acknowledged that the new wave of US sanctions caused the market to fall and increased volatility. She also said that it takes time for the markets and the economy to adjust to those measures. Nabiullina added that the CBR has a wide range of tools to address the risks, but at this stage, there is no threat to Russia's financial stability.

Let's now take a look at the USD/RUR technical picture at the daily time frame. The recent spike up has broken through the 23% Fibo at the level of 62.40 and made a high at the level of 63.61. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 60.70 and 60.10 and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 66.15. Please notice, that the market has entered the oversold conditions, so the corrective pull-back is being expected now.

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Global macro overview for 10/04/2018

During a speech at the Boao economic forum (Chinese Davos), President Xi announced the further opening of the Chinese economy and the reduction of some import duties with the specification of cars. Xi added that China does not strive to maintain a trade surplus, but is more interested in providing competitive products for the Chinese population. The president declared the opening of some sectors for foreign capital. Speech is a nice turnaround in an ongoing US trade dispute, and it also appears a few hours after President Trump on Twitter expressed his dissatisfaction with high tariffs on imported cars to China. It seems, therefore, that today the risk of the currency war has diminished, which the markets welcome. On FX, AUD and NZD rallies, as well as JPY sell-offs, is a typical response. The only question is whether China's movement will replace Trump's protectionist and anti-globalization. And if Trump receives Xi's speech as his success, or as a loss of control over the playing field - President Xi showed himself as a sensible player whos (so far empty) declarations throw cards out of Trump's hand.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 90.47 twice, but the price was pushed back down eventually. Currently, the market has broken below the technical support at the level of 90.18 and is heading lower towards the level of 89.63. The good news is the market conditions are about to enter the oversold zones, so there is still a chance for a corrective bounce towards the level of 90.18 or higher. The key mid-term technical support is still located at the level of 88.26.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 10, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7294. The pair rose from the level of 0.7294 to a top around 0.7340. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7375 followed by 0.7436, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7294 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7294 and 0.7436; so we expect a range of 142 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7375, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7436) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7300 with the first target at 0.7375 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7436. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7436 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7294, a further decline to 0.7151 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 10, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9602. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9602 to the bottom around the spot of 0.9540 - 0.9560. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.9540, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 0.9602, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the first support at 0.9540, the market will decline further to 0.9515 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.9602 with the first target at 0.9540 and further to 0.9515. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 0.9650.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for April 10, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

In general, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 remains a significant supply zone to offer a valid SELL entry when any bullish pullback occurs.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7200 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 10, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 28.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains bearish below the price levels of 1.2400 unless obvious daily bullish support is offered around the price level of 1.2200.

The bullish scenario is considered a low probability after the recent bearish breakdown of 1.2300 took place on April 3.

Moreover, the depicted Multiple-Top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis.

Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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What does the business crisis of O. Deripaska tells us?

The business of Oleg Deripaska was chosen by the United States for indicative flogging: Look, the main businessmen of Russia will be for everyone policy of the authorities of Russia to the confrontation with the West will continue and be strengthened.

Presumably, the logic of the Russian authorities when turning against the West looked like this: "We have nuclear weapons and powerful armed forces, we do not face a military confrontation.Our main resources - the sale of oil / gas / metals - is not at risk - resources are still needed, will buy, will not go anywhere "That is, there are no risks with anti-Western policies -. like, none.

Here, The USA and the West are now clearly demonstrating the risks of anti-Western policy including no loans, no new technologies, no acquisitions and business in the West.

Since the main business in Russia is very closely connected with the authorities, the current level of sanctions against Russia actually means a ban on the development of the Russian economy, partly, the use of Western resources (cheap credit) and technology.

There are only two options: either a long stagnation before the authorities turn to cooperate with the West - or an attempt to organize internal growth based only on one's own strength. The second one requires at least a full turn of the financial policy of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance in the direction of pro-active, pro-inflationary, and pro-scarce.

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Trade plan 04/09/2018

Trade plan 09/04/2018

The general picture: The focus is on politics.

On a new week with few important news, there is a formally interesting "minutes" of the Fed on Wednesday. Yet, the Fed's policy is fairly transparent that gradually slowly raise the rate, it is likely to increase by + 0.25% in June. In general, without sensations.

Rather, many news last week confused the markets.

In the new week, new pieces of news on the trade war started by Trump against China are likely.

I do not think that this crisis will be resolved easily. First, the US demands are too great. If China yields too little, this will be a loss of face for Trump. Too much is a loss of face for China.

Secondly, the reason for Trump's attack in what? China unveiled the recently ambitious program "Made in China 2030" - which says that China will become the world's 2030 leader in the production of high-tech products by 2030. This is a clear glove thrown at the US (well, Germany and Japan, of course). Given the huge US deficit in trade with China and Trump China's accusation of theft of intellectual property (technology), it turns out that the U.S. must also finance its own collapse as a leader.

Therefore, I do not think that the history of the trade war will end easily. The novel of the USA to China, that lasted for 40 years since 1978, seems close to the end.

For GBP / USD pair:

We are waiting for growth.

We buy from 1.4100 but in case of a strong decline, we buy from 1.3700.

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Breaking forecast 04/10/2018

Breaking forecast 04/10/2018

EURUSD: Looking forward to continued growth.

The main event of Tuesday was already held: the president of China, Xi Jinping delivered a keynote address at a large international forum in Boao. All the world's businesses and investors were waiting for a response to U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tough initiatives and statements to China about a sharp increase in duties, called a "trade war".

The leader of China, in opposition to Trump, called for a more open economy of China for the development of world trade. At the same time, Xi promised to increase the openness of the automobile market in China, open up the banking sector, and increase China's imports.

In principle, the statements of the leader of China were very peaceful, as opposed to the attacking style of Trump, and contained steps towards the US - in particular, the promise to improve the situation with the protection of intellectual property.

It is not very clear, however, how to deal with the huge US trade deficit in trade with China at 300-350 billion dollars.

Nevertheless, we consider the event positive for the markets - there is a place for negotiations.

Trump, however, is now heavily engaged in an investigation in his circle on the case of the "Russian intervention" and at the same time, it seems, is preparing a new attack on Syria (by the forces of Assad) after the chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus.

EURUSD: trading out of range:

Buy for the breakthrough 1.2350, stop at1.2305, profit at 1.2680.

Sell for the breakthrough 1.2215, stop at1.2260, profit 1.2000.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 10, 2018

The Dollar index is challenging the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) support. So far it shows that it wants to respect support and bounce for another leg higher. A break below the Kumo will be very bearish for the medium-term trend.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Daily trend is bearish as price is now again below the Daily Kumo. Resistance is at 89.90. Bulls need to see price close above it while bears want a rejection at the current levels. 90.30-90.40 is key for the short-term bullish scenario. Bulls must break it for a move towards 91.70. On the other hand, bears want to see daily closes below 89.40 to confirm bearish trend and increase the chances for new 2018 lows.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 10, 2018

Gold is trading inside a short-term bullish channel but still below the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). Price is making higher highs and higher lows since the $1,319 low but I believe we should expect another leg down towards $1,300 as long as price remains below $1,355.

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Magenta line- long-term resistance

Blue line -long-term support

The last few weeks price continues to consolidate inside the $1,300-$1,350 trading range. Weekly support that I expect to be tested is at $1,300. A break above $1,355 I will be expecting price to push to $1,400-$1,450.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for April 10, 2018

EUR/JPY is currently residing at the edge of 132.00 price area from where it is expected to proceed higher in the coming days. Ahead of the upcoming ECB events to be held this week, EUR is quite impulsive with its gains whereas certain struggles are still in the market. Today JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders report was published with a decrease to 28.1% from the previous value of 39.5% which did cause EUR the needed push to sustain its recent gains against JPY. On the EUR side, today French Industrial Production report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.5% from the previous value of -2.0% and Italian Industrial Production report is also expected to increase to 1.0% from the previous value of -1.9%. As of the current scenario, EUR is quite optimistic with the economic reports ahead of the upcoming high impact economic events to be held this week, whereas JPY is expected to struggle with the mixed economic reports throughout the week as of the expectations from speculators. To sum up, EUR is expected to extend its gains in the coming days over JPY which is expected to lead to further bullish pressure on the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 132.00 whereas a daily close this area will lead to further impulsive bullish pressure in the pair. The price has been supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA during the breakout which did inject confluence along the process. As the price remains above 131.00 price area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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Trading plan for 10/04/2018

The sentiment on the financial markets improves after comments from the US and China downplayed the risk of a trade war. Calming comments were perceived as supporting the risk appetite, which for the Asian session means a rally of currencies from the Antipodes at the yen's depreciation. AUD / USD has been raised to 0.7730, and NZD / USD has jumped to 0.7330. USD / JPY rebounded from 106.60 to 107.15.

On Tuesday 10th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Italian and French Industrial Production data, MPC Member Haldane Speech, Building Permits, and Housing Starts data from Canada and US PPI Index data.

SP500 analysis for 10/04/2018:

The impulse to improve moods was the speech of President Xi, who at the Boao forum appealed for a multilateral trading system and added that only dialogue is a way of resolving disputes. Earlier in the night, US Treasury secretary Mnuchin downplayed the risk of launching a trade war as well. This data allowed the global stocks to perform relief rally and all major global indices close positive.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The recent rally has hit the technical resistance at the level of 264.70 and then the price was capped, so despite this advance, the bulls are still struggling to break through the level of 266.81 and fill the gap between the levels of 268.89 - 270.30. Only this kind of market behavior will allow the bulls to extend the rally higher towards the level of 273.42. Otherwise, sooner or later, the level of 254.64 will be tested again.

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Bitcoin analysis for 10/04/2018

The cryptocurrency and blockchain organizations in Switzerland, Kazakhstan, and Armenia joined those from Russia, China and South Korea in filing a joint lawsuit against the main Internet companies for the prohibition of cryptographic advertising, according to the local Russian information service RNS. Plans to file a joint lawsuit against technological giants - Google, Twitter, and Facebook - were released on March 27. The organizations that originally complained were the Russian Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Association (RACIB), Korea Venture Business Associations and LCBT, the Chinese cryptographic investors' association.

According to Yuri Pripachkin, president of RACIB, new members of the joint lawsuit are associations such as the Swiss company fintech InnMind, the Armenian Blockchain Association and the Kazakhstan Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Association. A joint lawsuit will be filed in May 2018 in New York. Funds for lawyers will be collected on a digital wallet registered in Estonia, Pripachkin noted.

On January 30, Facebook blocked ads related to cryptocurrencies and ICO, citing "misleading or deceptive promotional practices." In March, Google followed Facebook, announcing that from June it will block any type of ads that will be associated with cryptocurrencies. At the end of March, Twitter also confirmed that it will block cryptography-related advertising, such as ICO, cryptocurrency exchanges, and portfolio services, with the exception of public companies' advertising.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is again very close to the key short-term technical support at the level of $6,400. Any breakout below this level will open the road towards the weekly pivot support at the level of $5,920 and then to the key mid-term technical support at the level of $5,820. The key short-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of $7,442.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 09, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 107.25, which should limit the upside potential. Both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages play resistance roles. The relative strength index is mixed with a bearish bias. Hence, below 107.25, look for a return with targets at 106.70 and 106.40 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 107.25, take profit at 106.70.

Resistance levels: 107.50, 107.75, and 107.30

Support levels: 106.70, 106.40, and 106.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 09, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair recently broke below its intraday rising trend line, which should confirm a bearish reversal. The 20-period moving average has reversed down, and also has crossed below the 50-period one (a negative signal). In addition, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Hence, as long as the resistance at 0.9610 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.9550 remains high.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9610, take profit at 0.9550.

Resistance levels: 0.9635, 0.9655, and 0.9695

Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9530, and 0.9500.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 09, 2018

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair stands firmly above its horizontal support at 150.60, and is expected to post a new rebound. Even though a consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited before a further advance to 151.60 and then to 152.00. Last but not least, the relative strength index has just broken above its neutrality area at 50, calling for a new rise towards 152.00.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.60, 152, and 152.60.

Support levels: 150.25, 149.85, and 149.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 09, 2018

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook and continue its rebound. The pair has reversed up, and is expected to post a new rebound. A bullish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Besides, the relative strength index is also positive above its neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as 0.7255 is not broken, likely advance to 0.7330 and 0.7355 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7355, and 0.7385.

Support levels: 0.7220, 0.7195, and 0.7145.

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