Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 17, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

The Bahamas are aiming to become the first country in the world to introduce a nationwide state-supported virtual currency, while announcing that it will happen in October this year. The deputy head of eSolutions at the Central Bank of the Bahamas, Chaozhen Chen, told the media that the digital currency, dubbed "Sand Dollars", aims to increase the financial integration of remote islands in the archipelago.

Many of the inhabitants of these more remote islands do not have access to digital payment infrastructure or banking infrastructure. Really, we had to adapt efforts and solutions in this area, which we need as a sovereign nation.

Sand dollar transfers are made by mobile, and as of 2017, around 90% of the Bahamas population uses mobile phones.

Chen noted that the central bank's digital currency, or CBDC, would be subject to the same rules as the Bahamian dollar, with anti-money laundering protection and other "Know Your Customer" safeguards that apply to account creation to use virtual currency.

The Central Bank of the Bahamas first announced its intention to pilot a CBDC in June 2018, noting that many of the smaller islands experienced "a reduction in the size of commercial banks and their withdrawal from their communities, leaving them without banking services."

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the lower channel line around the level of $355.24. Currently, the market is slowly moving up and the local high was made at the level of $384.90. Due to the fact, that the last move inside the channel is corrective in nature, more weakness is expected in ETH/USD pair. The key technical support is seen at the level of $332.28 (outside of the channel). The key demand zone is seen between the levels of $305.20 - $321.95 and if violated, then the next key long term support is seen at the level of $288. On the other hand, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $389.90 (swing high) and $407.03 (technical resistance).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $460.14

WR2 - $422.13

WR1 - $395.03

Weekly Pivot - $357.60

WS1 - $326.67

WS2 - $291.16

WS3 - $261.17

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 17, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Robert Kiyosaki calls the United States "bankrupt" because the country's public debt is $ 27 trillion, while listing Bitcoin as one of the top three long-term investments. The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" also predicts that when the world finds an effective vaccine against the coronavirus, Bitcoin will collapse.

In a tweet yesterday, Kiyosaki warned that the functional solution for Covid-19 would destroy the so-called Safe assets. Continuing, Kiyosaki argued that the virus masks "real" problems, particularly in the US economy. The country, with $ 26.7 trillion in debt according to the US National Debt Clock's monitoring resources, most of which came from stimulus measures since the Covid-19 hit, is now "bankrupt."

The argument for long-term investment in Bitcoin has become increasingly public since the asset market crash in March. Despite its current strength, the US dollar is widely viewed as in a downturn that will only worsen thanks to the Federal Reserve's policies also purported to counter the effects of the coronavirus.

The weakness of the US dollar index has pushed Bitcoin and gold up in recent months, highlighting the inverse correlation that remains the main factor for investors to consider.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $11,043 recently, but the rally was capped at this level. The zone located between the levels of $11,062 - $11,222 is the supply zone. If there is no breakout higher above this zone in the coming days, then the market might be moving sideways for some time and event reverse again. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,890 and $10,940 and the key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $9,922. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,302

WR2 - $10,908

WR1 - $10,609

Weekly Pivot - $10,206

WS1 - $9,887

WS2 - $9,466

WS3 - $9,157

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 17, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through the short-term trend line resistance located at the level of 1.2900 and made a new local high at the level of 1.3006. The violation of this line had put bulls in control of the market and another wave up will develop. For now, the immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017 and it should temporary stop any bullish attempts. The intraday technical support is seen at the levels of 1.2869, 1.2848 and 1.2816.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3535

WR2 - 1.3399

WR1 - 1.3036

Weekly Pivot - 1.2895

WS1 - 1.2525

WS2 - 1.2380

WS3 - 1.1994

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 17, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has broken below the 61% Fibonacci retracement level on the weekly time frame chart and made a new local low at the level of 1.1738. The levels of 1.1790, 1.1803 and 1.1813 will now act as an intraday technical resistance for the price, together with the level of 1.1822. Despite the oversold market conditions, the momentum remains weak and negative, so another wave down towards the next target seen at the level of 1.1710 is anticipated. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2085

WR2 - 1.1993

WR1 - 1.1923

Weekly Pivot - 1.1829

WS1 - 1.1753

WS2 - 1.1670

WS3 - 1.1589

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Fed: The US economy is recovering faster than expected. Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP

The US Federal Reserve left its key rate unchanged in the range of 0-0.25 following the September meeting. According to the statement, the rate will remain at the current level until the labor market reaches full employment and inflation rises to 2% or more.

Average forecasts for key parameters have been improved, and, as J. Powell later explained, "the economy has been recovering faster in the past two months than previously thought." The markets regarded the results of the statement as quite confident, and the dollar somewhat strengthened instead of the predicted decline.

At the same time, there are several factors that the Fed carefully avoids in its comments in order to prevent a very strong market reaction. The restrained reaction of the market can only be explained by one thing – complete disorientation. It was the first time in history that several factors gathered all at once, each of which only emphasizes the depth of the problem, and the fact that the period of low rates will drag on until 2023 is only a small and insignificant detail, since no one knows what factors will be decisive in 2023.

It was reported earlier that the US Federal budget deficit in 2020 will be approximately $ 3.3 trillion, or 16% of GDP, the highest since the Second World War. In a narrow sense, the US budget deficit has always been considered a secondary indicator, since foreign buyers instantly bought the government's debt issued.

Now, here's the latest data. The Treasury released a report on foreign purchases of securities through July less than an hour after Powell finished his press conference. The total sales in a year rose from 90.4 billion to 185.1 billion, which is another anti-record, while Treasury Bonds & Notes, or government securities declined to -591 billion in a year.

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So, the budget deficit is growing at a record, and foreign holders are getting rid of government securities simultaneously. Moreover, funding for the growing black hole is possible only at the expense of US domestic reserves.

This means that the Fed is unlikely to expand the asset repurchase program, and if the emphasis of the accompanying statement and the subsequent conference by J. Powell yesterday was on very low rates and their connection to the state of the labor market, then in fact we must assume that this focus was intended to calm the markets and give them at least some guidance, but in no way reflected the real level of problems facing the US monetary authorities.

It was expected that the dollar would fall if the results of the meeting are in line with forecasts. As the outlook for inflation, unemployment and GDP improved, the dollar rose and is likely to further rise in the near future. Moreover, we should also consider the fact that avoiding comments on the expansion of QE will contribute to a reversal of the stock market, but in reality, QE will continue, which will allow shares to grow further and at least will contribute to a rise in demand for the dollar.

EUR/USD

The ZEW economic sentiment indicator for Germany rose to 77.4p in September, which is the highest in 20 years.

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The strong growth reflects investors' positive mood associated with the recent adoption of the EU's 750 billion euro stimulus package.

It's time for the euro to leave the range. The initial market reaction led to the euro's decline, so testing the support zone 1.1695/1710 looks more likely on Thursday morning. The dollar will grow evenly stronger as long as there is no information about the method of financing the US budget. Most likely, this will happen immediately after the election.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England traditionally follows the Fed's policy with a time lag of several months, so today's BoE meeting is unlikely to bring any changes. The high uncertainty associated with the high probability of the UK leaving the EU without a deal ties the hand of the Bank of England – it needs to understand how the economic and political situation will develop in order to make changes in monetary policy.

There are few reasons for the continuation of the pound's growth. Here, attempts to rise to the resistance zone 1.3005/35 will most likely be inactive. It is more likely to go below the trend line, that is, below 1.29 with the goal of retesting the low 1.2760.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 17? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD currency pair continued to move down on Thursday night after the MACD sell signal, which appeared yesterday. In last night's article, we advised novice traders to either close all short trades at minimal profit before Federal Reserve Jerome Powell's speech, or set the Stop Loss level at breakeven and leave open sell orders until the morning. In principle, novice traders could make a profit. In the second case, short positions should be still open, and the total profit on them should be equal to 90 points. Therefore, traders have a choice: to wait for the MACD indicator to reverse to the upside and then close short positions, or close them right now and be content with a profit of 90 points. Meanwhile, the euro/dollar pair has moved from the upper area of the side channel of 1.17-1.19 to the lower one. It worked out and the pair broke through the first support level of 1.1774, and nearly reached the second one at 1.1734. Now, it is quite possible to expect the pair to reverse to the upside near the lower limit of the side channel. Unfortunately, traders still do not have either a trend channel or a trend line to support a particular trend.

In yesterday's speech, Powell said the US economy was recovering at a faster pace than expected. Forecasts for unemployment, GDP and inflation for 2020 are significantly higher compared to June. Now the Fed expects total GDP losses to reach 3.7% (previously forecasted at -6.5%), inflation will be 1.2% y/y (previously it was assumed at 0.8% y/y), and unemployment will be 7.6 % (previously 9.3%). Thus, Powell really made an optimistic and encouraging statement, which provided strength to the dollar. However, in addition to this, Powell also said that the prospects for the recovery of the US economy remain uncertain due to the coronavirus epidemic that continues to rage. "The level of economic activity as a whole remains lower than before the crisis," Powell said.

The European Union is set to release a report on inflation today, which may disappoint buyers of the euro. The point is that, unlike the American one, European inflation dropped below the 0% y/y level. Therefore, this is deflation, which is very, very bad for the EU economy. If the report shows that inflation remains at less than 0%, then we can expect the pair to continue falling (that is, the fall of the euro and the growth of the US dollar).

Possible scenarios for September 17:

1) Novice traders are still not recommended to buy the pair at this time, since the price is currently falling. Unfortunately, there is not even a trend line that would support the downward trend and setting the price above it can determine if this trend will change to an upward one. In our case, buyers can only wait until the lower limit of the 1.17-1.19 channel is reached and in case of a rebound from it, you can start opening long positions.

2) Selling still looks more attractive, despite the fact that the pair's quotes have moved from the upper area of the side channel to the lower one. As we mentioned above, traders can either wait for the MACD to reverse upwards to close short positions, or close them now at a profit of about 90 points. You are recommended to open new shorts only when the pair corrects upward by at least several tens of points. The goal for extending the fall is the 1.1734-1.1700 area.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Federal Reserve highlights a dovish stance on economic policy

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US Fed announced the following points during its press conference on Wednesday:

1. The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at a range of 0% to 0.25%.

2. These rates will remain close to zero until 2023.

3. The Fed forecasts US GDP to contract much lower in 2020 than earlier predictions, but in 2021 and 2022, it will grow slower than expected.

4. Rates will remain at such low levels until the US labor market achieves maximum employment, and inflation rises above 2%.

5. The Fed will use all possible measures to support the US economy.

6. Its current target is maximum employment and 2% inflation over the long term.

7. The Fed will strive to keep inflation moderately above 2% for some time in order for it to average at 2%.

8. It will continue to buy securities to create favorable financial conditions.

This stance of the Federal Reserve is clearly dovish, indicating that inflation is key for bright outlook for the economy ..

It also updated its economic forecast for 2020, saying that the US will record a GDP of -3.7%.

"That's not as bad as predicted since June," noted Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union. "Higher rates will make the dollar more attractive. The Fed has basically met the market expectations this time, " he added.

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What the Federal Reserve stated in the meeting yesterday, September 16, 2020

The Federal Reserve is committed to using a full range of tools to give aid to the US economy during this tough time, thereby contributing to the country's goals of maximum employment and price stability.

The COVID-19 pandemic is creating enormous human and economic deprivation in the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have increased in recent months, but they have remained well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding back consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions have improved in recent months, partly reflecting policy measures to support the economy and an influx of credit to US households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to affect economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and pose significant risks to the economic outlook in the medium term.

The Committee aims to ensure maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent over the long term. Given that inflation is consistently below this long-term target, the Committee will aim for an average inflation rate of 2 percent for some time, while long-term inflation expectations remain at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain a favorable monetary policy stance until these results are achieved. The Committee has decided to maintain the target range for the Federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects that it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions reach levels consistent with the Committee's estimated maximum employment and inflation rises to 2 percent and modestly exceeds 2 percent for some time. In addition, in the coming months,

In assessing the appropriate monetary policy stance, the Committee will continue to monitor the impact of incoming information on the economic outlook. The Committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance accordingly if there are risks that could hinder the achievement of the Committee's objectives. The Committee's estimates will take into account a wide range of information, including data on public health, labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and expectations, as well as financial and international developments.

The people who voted in favor of monetary policy action were Chairman Jerome Powell; Vice-Chair John C. Williams; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Meanwhile, the text was opposed by Robert S. Kaplan, who expects that it would be appropriate to maintain the current range of targets until the Committee is confident that the economy had survived recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals set out in its new policy strategy statement, but prefers that the Committee retain more flexibility on rates at this point; and Neil Kashkari, who prefers the Committee to indicate that it expects to maintain the current target range until core inflation reaches 2 percent on a sustainable basis.

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EUR/USD. Kaplan's game, the fed's "dovish" theses and COVID-19

The dollar index is growing: the results of the September fed meeting were in favor of the US currency, even though, mainly, the regulator did not sound any "hawkish" signals. But the market interpreted the rhetoric of the Central Bank members in its own way, taking the split of opinions as a reason for strengthening the dollar. It turned out that not all members of the Committee support the "party policy" because some of them require a more flexible approach to the level of interest rates. On the other hand, the point (median) forecast was not in favor of greenback: it assumes that the key rate will remain at 0.1% until the end of 2023. At the beginning of the summer, the statement was different as they claimed at their June meeting that it's going to be "until the end of 2022".This is clearly a "dovish" signal, which the market simply ignored focusing on other aspects of the September meeting.

In General, the Federal reserve left all the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. There were no surprises here because all members of the open market operations Committee voted for this decision. But their further discussion somewhat surprised market participants. The bone of contention was the key phrase of the accompanying statement which looks like this: "... rates near zero will be maintained until labor market conditions are consistent with full employment and annual inflation accelerates to the two percent target level and aims for a moderate excess of this mark."

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Two fed members, Kaplan and Kashkari, disagreed with this statement and their positions are directly opposite. So, the head of the Federal reserve Bank of Atlanta, Robert Kaplan, said that the Federal reserve should maintain a "more flexible approach" in raising interest rates. He opposed the designation of a specific leading indication. While the President of the Federal reserve of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari (who is considered a consistent "dove") called for "guaranteed" to maintain the current level of rates until core inflation shows a steady trend above the two percent target level.

The market listened to Kaplan, interpreting signs of a split in the fed camp in favor of the US currency. In addition, the Federal reserve revised its earlier (summer) forecasts, stating "a more rapid improvement in the labor market situation in the summer period." Fed members noted that the unemployment rate is going at a faster pace, although this is partly due to the fact that fewer Americans are currently looking for work. However, Jerome Powell acknowledged that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell very sharply relative to the spring values. At the same time, the indicator continues to remain either at the same level or gradually decreases, as per the head of the fed.

Not without the topic of coronavirus. The text of the fed's accompanying statement indicates that the future trajectory of the economy will largely depend on the development of the epidemiological situation in the States. Members of the regulator recognized that the ongoing coronavirus crisis will continue to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation in the United States. COVID-19, according to the Central Bank carries key risks for the economy in the medium term.

On the other hand, statements like this should put indirect pressure on the dollar since the situation with the coronavirus in the States remains quite difficult. But the fact that yesterday the President of the United States Donald trump has made a resonant statement on the matter. He said that vaccination of American citizens against COVID-19 will begin in October this year. According to him, by the end of this year, they plan to produce 100 million doses of the vaccine.

As a rule, the market is doubtful of such statements by the head of the White house especially in light of the presidential campaign. The American press even expressed concerns that Trump could put pressure on the relevant regulator to approve the vaccine before the presidential election which will be held on November 3. Furthermore, the forecasts of the chief infectious diseases specialist of the United States, Anthony Fauci does not sound so ambitious. In his opinion, the coronavirus vaccine can be approved closer to the end of the year, and will become widely available only next year.

However, Trump's statement yesterday provided indirect support for the dollar. The developers of the vaccine, mainly assured journalists that they will not sell the vaccine for approval until they are convinced of its safety and effectiveness.

Thus, the American got a temporary respite. The results of the September fed meeting did not sink the dollar but did not reverse the trend. The current price dynamics should be considered as a correction, since the effective Federal reserve has taken a "dovish" position while moving the hypothetical date of the rate increase another year ahead. Kaplan's game was somewhat surprising but this fundamental factor will have a short-term impact.

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If we were going to talk about the Euro-dollar pair, the bears are testing the support level of 1.1750 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). So far, it has been unsuccessful because the downward trend movement is gradually fading and it is becoming more difficult for sellers to put pressure on the price. It is possible that during the European session on Thursday, the bears will still push this level. But in my opinion, the downward movement will be limited as it is unlikely that EUR/USD will overcome the next support level of 1.1690 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on D1). Therefore, in this price area, we can consider longs with the first medium-term goal at 1.1830 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same time frame).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 17. Pressure on the pound gradually returns ahead of Bank of England

To open long positions in GBP/USD, you need:

No matter how buyers of the pound tried to break through the area above 1.2991 yesterday, nothing came of it, and as a result, the pair fell, which may happen again today. As many as three points of entry into short positions on the pound appeared yesterday afternoon. Two before the publication of the Fed's meeting and one after. I marked them all on the 5 minute chart. Unsuccessful attempts to break through 1.2991 and even a false breakout while testing this level from the bottom up - all these actions causes GBP/USD to smoothly return to the middle of the 1.2921 side channel, which the bulls have to fight for. A lot will depend on this level, but take your time in making decisions for longs. It is best to follow the trend and look for short entry points. If you are a convinced optimist, then I would recommend buying the pound after confidently returning to the resistance of 1.2921 and its test from top to bottom, which may occur after the Bank of England announces its decision on monetary policy. Bulls will have the main task of returning and settling above the resistance of 1.3004, which will open a direct road to the highs of 1.3103 and 1.3178, which is where I recommend taking profits.

If the pound is still under pressure, and this scenario is more likely, it is best to open long positions immediately on the rebound from the support of 1.2843, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Or you can buy GBP/USD from a weekly low of 1.2777, which keeps the pair from sharply moving down. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 8 showed a reduction in long positions, but in addition, there was an even larger drop in short positions, which indicates profit taking after a fairly large bear market that we saw recently. It is also evidence that further downside momentum may start to gradually slow down, but much will depend on the terms of the Brexit deal. Short non-commercial positions decreased from 42,901 to 33,860 during the reporting week. Long non-commercial positions slightly fell from 49,213 to 46,590. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased to 12,730 against 6,312 a week earlier.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears urgently need to return to the 1.2921 level, but you can only open short positions from there after testing it from the bottom up. A lot will depend on how the market reacts to the Bank of England's decision. If no new support measures are announced, the pressure on the pound could increase. In this case, the bears will mainly aim for GBP/USD to return to major support at 1.2843, where I recommend taking profits. Resilient sellers will stick around until the weekly low of 1.2777 has been tested, where the main struggle with the trend direction will unfold. Bulls could return to the market if we receive positive news related to the scandalous Brexit bill. In this case, I do not recommend rushing with short positions. It is best to wait for the resistance test at 1.3004 and a false breakout to form there, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Larger sellers will only announce themselves after the high of 1.3103 has been updated.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, and it is difficult to say who will be the winner in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking through the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2921 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the pound. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.3004 area will cause the pair to rise.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages). Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. The 9 period SMA.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). The period 20.
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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16/09/20: Forecast for the US economy to 2023

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The forecast for the US economy in the table above:

In 2021, GDP will accelerate to +4%, unemployment will fall to 5.5%, and inflation will remain below 2%

Forecast from 16/09/20

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 17. Fed restored dollar's strength. COT reports. Bears aim for breakout

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Several signals to open short positions in the euro appeared yesterday, after the bulls made many attempts to stay above the 1.1854 level. Let's deal with them. If you look at the 5 minute chart, you will see how the bears regained the 1.1854 level and, having tested it from the bottom up, formed a good entry point to sell. Then, the pair returned to this level after the Federal Reserve's decision was announced, which led to an influx of new sellers and another signal to sell the euro. The only longs worth paying attention to were after a false breakout of the 1.1800 support at the very end of the day. But there was no movement more than 20 points from this range. The situation in the pair is quite difficult at the moment. Bulls need to defend support at 1.1756, which is being tested for the third time and is likely to be broken. Therefore, I recommend buying from this level only if a false breakout appears and the pair returns to this range with the main goal of updating resistance at 1.1800, which is where I recommend taking profit.

However, today's data on eurozone inflation is unlikely to be able to do anything, so it is best to postpone longs until the new monthly low of 1.1714 has been tested, counting on a correction of 20-30 points from this level. Larger bulls will wait for an update of the 1.1648 area. When buying euros, you must understand that you are going against the trend. Therefore, the lower the longs, the higher the chance of a correction and rebound. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 8 showed that long non-commercial positions decreased from 250,867 to 248,683, while short non-commercial positions also fell from 54,130 to 51,869. Political uncertainty in the United States and central bank meetings forced many traders to wait and see ahead of the fall marathon. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position grew only slightly and reached 196,814 against 196,747 a week earlier.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The bears are aiming for a breakout and consolidation below the 1.1756 level, but you need to be careful when selling since the pair has already gone more than 75 points down since the day started and we need the support of large players for it to decline further. The most optimal scenario for selling would be an upward correction to the resistance area of 1.1800, from where you can open short positions in the euro immediately on a rebound in order to continue the bearish market and then you can settle below 1.1756. If we trade around 1.1756 in the first half of the day, constantly smearing it, then, most likely, the bear market will continue only when the US session opens, therefore, when forming a sideways channel, try to enter the market as high as possible, from its upper limit. Bears will have the main goal of pulling down EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1714 as well as its breakout, which will open a direct road to new monthly lows in the areas of 1.1648 and 1.1585, which is where I recommend taking profits.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is under the 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a resumption of the bear market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of an upward correction, the average border of the indicator in the 1.1810 area will act as a resistance. You can sell the euro on a rebound from the upper border around 1.1890.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages). Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. The 9 period SMA.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). The period 20.
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 17

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COVID-19 update: a recession is seen in the United States and Brazil. New infections have stabilized around 40 thousand day, which is about 1.5 times lower than the earlier super-high statistics.

Unfortunately, the same can not be said in India, as its incidence rate has risen again to more than 95 thousand a day. However, the virus' lethality has become much lower than before, so there are relatively few deaths a day.

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US market: no strong movement after the Fed meeting yesterday, which indicates that the mood in the market remains the same. It seems that investors are awaiting the presidential election in November.

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EUR/USD: Euro traded downwards after the Fed meeting yesterday.

For now, set short positions from 1.1750 to 1.1820.

In case of an upward reversal, open long positions from 1.1885.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 17

Trading recommendations for EUR / USD on September 17

Analysis of transactions

EUR / USD moved 20 pips upward in the market, after which it went back down again by 40 pips from 1.1838. These all happened before the important Fed meeting yesterday.

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The Fed, explaining exactly when and under what conditions it will start raising interest rates, made the US dollar a more attractive asset. But today, demand will mostly be affected by the upcoming data on the euro area CPI, and it may result in a continued decline of the euro against the dollar.

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  • Set long positions from 1.1790 (green line on the chart) to 1.1837. However, growth will only occur on the grounds of very good inflation data on the euro area.
  • Selling with the trend is a better choice, as in the afternoon a number of important fundamental statistics on the US labor market await us, which will support the dollar and lead to a decrease in the euro. Thus, sell shorts from 1.1750 (red line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.1703.

Trading recommendations for GBP / USD on September 17

Analysis of transactions

The market is currently in favor of the bulls, bringing 60-pip profit to long positions from 1.2930.

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Today, movement will depend on the decisions and announcements of the Bank of England during its meeting. A lack of changes in monetary policy will increase the pressure on the pound, as many are counting on new bailout programs.

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  • Setup long positions from 1.2951 (green line on the chart), and take profit around the level of 1.3022. Growth will occur only if there is very good news on Brexit, which is highly unlikely.
  • Sell short positions from 1.2909 (red line on the chart), and take profit at least near the level of 1.2843.
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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/17/20

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The EUR/USD pair follows the course of the side channel 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910 (lines no. 1, 2 and 3), where the price rebound from the upper limit led to an increase in downward interest, as a result of which the average level of the channel was broken.

Yesterday's trading recommendation, regarding the scenario of the breakdown of line No. 2, occurred, having an income on the trading deposit.

If we proceed from the current location of the quote, we can see a convergence of the price with the low of September 9, where the variable support level of 1.1755 passes, which has repeatedly restrained sellers from further decline.

Based on the obtained data on finding the quote, we can consider a number of possible market development scenarios:

First, the price rebound from the level of 1.1755.

The quote is approaching the price level of 1.1755, where a stagnation is formed in its area, followed by a rebound, similar to what happened last August 21 and September 9.

Second, the breakdown of the level of 1.1755, with the retention of the given downward path.

The specified downward movement from line No. 3 (1.1910) is held in the market, which leads to the completion of the sideways channel cycle 1.1910 ---> 1.1700. In this case, it is worth waiting for a price consolidation below 1.1750, towards 1.1700.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair, moving from the support level of 1.2770, reached the important price level of 1.3000, which plays the role of a psychological level in the market. Such an important price value managed to contain the upward interest, which resulted in a slowdown and a rebound in the opposite direction.

Based on the current position of the quote, the correction move from the level of 1.2770 has completed its formation and sellers are returning to the market again, who will try to restore the downward tact set on September 1 in the market.

Based on the obtained data on finding the quote, a number of possible market development scenarios can be considered:

First, a further decline towards the levels of 1.2885-1.2770.

The market is recovering, where a downward movement from the level of 1.3000 leads to the value of 1.2885, and then to the main support point of 1.2770. The primary entry point for a sell position is below 1.2885.

Second, a variable bumpiness.

The market is in an unclear neutral position, which leads to a turbulence between the levels of 1.2885/1.3000.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 17, 2020

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GBP/JPY remains locked inside the sideways consolidation between 135.41 and 136.59 and we will need a break out of this consolidation-area for the next meaningfull move. We prefer a break above resistance at 136.59, but the longer GBP/JPY stays locked inside this sideways consolidation, the risk for a break below support at 135.41 rises for a final spike towards 133.87.

A break above 136.59 will confirm that red wave iv/ has completed and red wave v/ to above 142.72 is in motion.

R3: 137.10

R2: 136.60

R1: 136.06

Pivot: 135.90

S1: 135.75

S2: 135.50

S3: 135.25

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.55 and we will move our stop to 135.35

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 17, 2020

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Yesterday, we saw an unexpected break below 124.37. It signals the correction in wave 2/ from 127.07 still is in motion and just has turned more complicated. The rally of the 124.37 low was in five waves, but not the start of a new impulsive uptrend as we first expected, but rather a failed c/ wave of wave B/ and the following decline from 126.46 is wave C. We have recalculated the possible target for the possible bottom om wave C/ and the most likely target is seen at 122.15 where wave 2/ will have corrected 61.8% of wave 1/.

In the short-term, we will look for a temporary low at 123.03 for a correction towards 123.91 and the final decline to 122.15 to complete wave C/ and 2/.

R3: 124.29

R2: 124.10

R1: 123.84

Pivot: 123.61

S1: 123.29

S2: 123.03

S3: 122.75

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 124.35 was hit for a small loss of only 6 pips. We will sell EUR at 123.90 and place our stop at 125.22.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro lost 30 points as a result of the Federal Reserve meeting. News agencies report that the dollar strengthened due to a split within the FOMC, as the general summary of the meeting was adopted with the wording of keeping low rates until the end of 2023, but two opposed this formulation: Robert Kaplan and Neil Kashkari, who considered that the issue of rates need to be more flexible.

But the euro mainly fell due to the news of the growth of retail sales in the August estimate by 0.6%, afterwards the single currency dropped 50 points, and the day closed at the level when the Fed's release was published. The volume of trading at the time of the Fed's monetary policy decision was twice as large as at the release of retail trade data, but it seems that the upper levels were protected.

We assume that investors simply ignored the FOMC's decision to keep rates low for a long time, since Biden's victory at the current stage is beyond doubt and a lot can change in the Fed's policy.

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The daily chart shows that the price overcame the MACD line, while the Marlin oscillator is moving down. The euro is aiming for 1.1650. Consolidating below the level opens the second goal of 1.1550.

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The price settled under both indicator lines on the four-hour chart - the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). Marlin falls. The situation is completely going down.

However, the price is approaching a strong technical level of 1.1753, from which it has reversed by more than 100 points twice on August 21 and September 9, so there is a high probability of a price correction. But it is not deep, up to the 1.1826 level, where the MACD line is located on the daily scale.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 17, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar closed yesterday's session neutral after the Federal Reserve meeting was publicized, the day ended at the opening level, but this morning investors saw the "working" mood on Wall Street and picked it up, actively selling counter-dollar currencies.

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The daily chart shows the price attacking the important technical level of 0.7249, breaking through which opens the way for it to fall to 0.7110, the August 12 low. The Marlin oscillator has entered the downward trend zone, the situation is declining on a daily scope.

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The four-hour chart also shows a consistent technical decline. The price is below the indicator lines, which serve as a kind of support and resistance level, while the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. We are waiting for the price to successfully attack 0.7249 and move to 0.7110.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 17, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen managed to break through the support of the two trend lines on Wednesday, and as a result, the lower line of the price channel (brown rising) was dissolved. At the moment, the price is testing the resistance of the embedded red line of the downward channel from below, after which, it is highly likely for the quote to drop to the 103.75 target, to the level of 76.4%.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price is correcting to the upside with the support of the rising Marlin oscillator. A pronounced growth of the oscillator may mean that the price will stay at current levels, form some consolidation, and then continue to decline.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 17. COT report. Fed's key rate remained at 0.25%. Monetary policy

EUR/USD 1H

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The hourly timeframe on September 16 shows that the euro/dollar pair continued to trade slightly below the Senkou Span B line, which currently lies near the 1.1882 level, as well as slightly under the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910. The upper line of the side channel is also in this area, in which the pair has been trading for a month and a half. Therefore, take note that buyers did not find the strength to overcome these resistance at the moment, which means that the pair retains excellent chances for falling towards the support area of 1.1704-1.1724, where the lower line lies of the side channel runs. There are no trend lines or trend channels at this time. Because there is no trend at this time either. From time to time, trends form within the sideways channel, but they usually do not last long.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, as the price reached the upper border of the side channel and could not overcome it. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which, I recall, comes out with a three-day delay and only covers September 2-8, turned out to be absolutely predictable. We expected that the report would not show any fundamental changes in the mood of large traders, since the EUR/USD pair continues to trade in a sideways channel. The category of non-commercial traders closed 3,073 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 789 Sell-contracts (shorts) at the end of the reporting week. The changes are minimal considering that the total number of contracts for this category of traders exceeds 300,000. Take note that the net position for players in this category has slightly decreased, which means a weakening of the bullish sentiment, but again minimal. The commercial trader category was much more active and it closed as many as 30,000 contracts during the reporting week. However, please be reminded that the actions of non-commercial traders are more important, since they are considered to be the ones driving the market, and commercial traders usually open positions opposite to them. The last three trading days of last week were not included in the latest COT report, however, no serious price changes were recorded on those days. There are also no major price changes at the beginning of a new trading week.

The US retail sales report was published on Wednesday, September 16, which turned out to be weaker than expert forecasts. However, traders paid more attention to the Federal Reserve meeting and its results. However, there is nothing special to take note of at this event. The Fed's key rate remained unchanged. No changes in monetary policy were announced. Thus, the meeting turned out to be a "walk-through". A report on inflation in the European Union will be released today, which is starting to really worry, as it dropped below zero. If it remains as weak, then the dollar may rise in price today. A report on applications for US unemployment benefits will also be published, which has recently become less important. The general fundamental background is not in favor of the dollar, so we do not expect the dollar to significantly strengthen.

We have two trading ideas for September 17:

1) Buyers were unable to break through several resistances near the upper line of the side channel of $1.17-1.19. And so, the appearance of a new upward trend is canceled for now. Therefore, we advise you to consider new long positions only if the 1.1884-1.1910 area is overcome, while aiming for the resistance level of 1.2003. Take Profit in this case will be about 60 points.

2) Bears get a new opportunity to pull down the EUR/USD pair to the lower area of the side channel of 1.17-1.19 of almost every day, since the 1.1884-1.1910 area was not overcome once again, but there were several rebounds from the Senkou Span B line . Thus, we recommend trading down at this time while aiming for the support level of 1.1760. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 60 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 17. Britain, led by Boris Johnson, is in direct conflict with the European Union.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 128.8667

The British pound continued to adjust during the third trading day against the US currency. Thus, from our point of view, everything is logical for the pound. The pound/dollar pair fell on reports of further failures in negotiations between London and Brussels and that London intends to violate the agreement concluded with the European Union regarding the situation on the border between European Ireland and British Northern Ireland. Thanks to this news, the pair lost about 700 points. Therefore, it is not surprising that when the flow of disappointing news stopped, the pair began to correct and have already won back about 200 points. However, it is the fundamental background that continues to be the main driver of the pound/dollar currency pair. New information may be received from the British Parliament or the European Union regarding the brewing conflict between the parties, and the British currency may again be under serious market pressure.

In recent months, when the British pound has been growing quite steadily in price, we have repeatedly questioned the validity of such a rise in price. The problem was that both the euro and the pound were growing solely because of the falling demand for the US currency. That is, it is not the euro and the pound that grew, but the dollar became cheaper. However, this process could not continue forever. And the first to fail was the buyers of the pound/dollar pair. The pound collapsed quite rightly, since the US economy had problems in 2020, and the British economy has been experiencing them since 2016 and may continue in 2021 and 2022. Recently, the topic of a trade agreement between Britain and the EU has become rather boring. It seems that it has already been worked out by traders several dozen times. Nevertheless, this is the main topic for London. After all, the problem is that if there is no agreement, there is a new contraction of the British economy. Thus, from 2021, the UK economy may begin to contract again or slow down in its recovery. Naturally, this situation does not suit investors who do not want to invest in British companies, and in the British economy, it is completely unclear on what terms London and Brussels will trade from 2021. And now, when the threat looms over the peaceful coexistence of the European Union and Britain, those who want to buy the pound are even more diminished. Therefore, if it were not for the "four types of crisis" in the US, which we have already talked about more than once, then the pound would now be hanging around the $ 1.10 mark, or even lower.

Meanwhile, top EU officials continue to say that the chances of signing an agreement with Britain are melting away. This time, Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, spoke in a similar vein. Michel Barnier also says this, but these statements are not news, since it was clear in March that the probability of an agreement is minimal. And there were several reasons for this, the main ones being:

1) Boris Johnson from the very beginning was not going to conclude any agreements with the European Union but was going to implement a "hard" Brexit.

2) The EU wanted to conclude a comprehensive agreement and bind the UK as much as possible to European norms and legislation. London agreed to sign a new trade agreement.

As a result, if earlier we thought that an agreement between the EU and the UK was unlikely to be achievable, meaning an agreement in 2020, now we do not believe that a trade deal is possible between the Alliance and the Kingdom at all. If the "Johnson law" comes into force, then the European Union will go to international courts, impose sanctions and duties on the UK, or even arrange a border somewhere in Ireland. This will be very difficult to do technically because Ireland and Northern Ireland were at war for about 30 years and only the Belfast Agreement of 1998, which implies the absence of a hard border between these States, put an end to the bloodshed and conflict. Therefore, the EU, if Britain refuses to impose strict customs controls and checks on the border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, it will be very difficult in principle to place a border separating Northern Ireland from the bloc. However, it is unlikely that Brussels will simply give in to London on this issue. Most likely, the parties will enter into a conflict, which in the first place may negatively affect the British economy.

Well, the main culprit of the celebration, Boris Johnson, meanwhile, was accused of intending to spoil the country's reputation. "When Her Majesty's Minister gives the floor, it must be unbreakable," said Geoffrey Cox, a former British Crown lawyer. The same view is supported by all the opposition forces in the UK, as well as some conservatives. However, we can only say that the British people can only blame themselves for all the potential ills. It was the British people who in December last year put all power in the hands of the conservatives, who are ready for the most part to almost blindly obey Boris Johnson. Thus, it is Johnson who now has full power in the country and can pass almost any laws without fear of opposition. Accordingly, he can do whatever he wants, but the British people, whose standard of living may fall, will have to deal with it, as usual.

Thus, it is the long-term prospects of the pound that remain very vague at this time. In the States, everything can be decided in early November. If Joe Biden becomes the new president, there is no doubt that the markets will cheer up, and buyers of the dollar will be overflowing with optimism. Of course, Biden can also make bad decisions, but no one knows about it yet. But the future of the UK in the next couple of years is in impenetrable clouds. Therefore, in the long term, we believe that it is the pound that will continue to fall.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 149 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, September 17, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2830 and 1.3128. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downward may signal about a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3184

R3 – 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to correct on the 4-hour timeframe and the price has already been fixed above the moving average line. Thus, today it is recommended to consider options for opening long positions with targets of 1.3062 and 1.3128 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.2817 and 1.2695 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 17. Donald Trump is going to run for a third term.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -67.5319

The euro/dollar pair again spent the third trading day of the week in absolutely calm trading with a slight upward bias. We deliberately do not take into account the movements that occurred after the results of the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell's speech. Often in such cases, the market acts impulsively, without relying on logic. For example, a week ago, when the ECB meeting and Christine Lagarde's speech took place, the euro increased by 100 points and it immediately fell by 100 points the next day. In other words, market participants seem to have recognized that they bought the euro for absolutely no reason during the speech of the head of the ECB. Thus, we recommend that you do not trade when the Fed's press conference will be held, and until this morning. We recommend that you trade carefully, wait for the markets to calm down completely, and make sure that there are no unexpected or sudden movements, for example, with the opening of the European trading session.

Meanwhile, the overall fundamental background for the US currency does not change at all. The most pressing issue for America remains the "coronavirus" epidemic, which has already claimed the lives of almost 200,000 Americans. Unfortunately, after a slight decline in recent days, the United States has again seen high levels of COVID-2019. For example, 52 thousand people were infected in the States yesterday. Thus, the US dollar can avoid a new wave of sales, however, it will also be very difficult for it to count on growth since the situation with the "coronavirus" remains much calmer in Europe. In other words, it's time to talk about the second wave of the pandemic. However, not all EU countries are doing so badly. For example, in Italy, which is the most affected during the first "wave", now has 1-2 thousand new cases of the disease recorded daily, which is very small, given modern realities. In Germany and all other EU countries, no more than 2 thousand new cases are recorded daily. Thus, the epidemiological situation in Europe remains much more favorable than in the United States.

Moreover, we would like to once again remind traders that in the States, Democrats and Republicans have not been able to reach a consensus on the formation of a new package of emergency financial assistance to the unemployed, small and medium-sized businesses, as well as schools, kindergartens, and other institutions affected by the pandemic and the crisis. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the other day that the White House will make all necessary efforts to eventually reach an agreement with Congress. The problem is that the longer the package is not accepted, the more likely it is that the US economy will start to slow down again. And in the current conditions, when 32% of GDP was lost in the second quarter, any delay can be very expensive for Americans. "I will continue to work on it. I said to Nancy Pelosi (Speaker of the House of representatives) that he is ready to negotiate at any time," said Steven Mnuchin. The day before, Nancy Pelosi also expressed optimism about new rounds of negotiations. Earlier, Mnuchin promised to coordinate and approve a new package of assistance to the economy in early August. Now the second half of September has already begun.

A little later, it was reported that representatives of the Republican Party and Donald Trump personally are ready to make an offer to the Democrats for $ 1.5 trillion. Nancy Pelosi is ready to start a new round of discussion. Recall that the last proposal of the Democrats was equal to 2.2 trillion dollars. Thus, it remains only to level the difference of $ 700 billion. Donald Trump himself said, speaking in Philadelphia: "Right before I came here, we had pretty good talks with the Democrats." Thus, the parties may still be able to reach a general agreement within 2-3 weeks. This would greatly help the US currency, which has been stalling for more than a month and a half, and even when the bulls retreated, it cannot correct normally.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump said he was going to stay on the third term. Yes, you heard right, the US leader, speaking in Nevada, said: "In 52 days, we will win four more years in the White House. Given the way we were treated, we probably deserved an extra four years." Given the fact that this is far from Trump's first statement regarding three or four terms, many already believe that the president is going to be re-elected every 4 years. Earlier, Trump also fully approved of the activities of Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, who changed his country's legislation prohibiting him from being re-elected an infinite number of times. It seems that Trump is going to spend 12-16 years in the White House. The US President also believes that due to the impeachment procedure, which lasted about two years, he lost a huge amount of time and now "expects compensation". According to Trump, the house hearings and other legal delays took up a huge amount of time that he could have devoted to public affairs. "Despite the incredible success I achieved as president, they stole two years of our presidencies that we will never be able to return," Trump wrote on Twitter. According to the US Constitution, however, no candidate can be elected more than twice in total. Thus, Trump will have to change the country's legislation if he intends to stay in the White House for 12-16 years. However, it is unlikely that 2/3 of each house of the US Congress will approve such an initiative by Trump. And without this, the legislation will not be changed.

Based on all of the above, we believe that the overall fundamental background in the United States does not change at all. This explains the lack of desire among traders to buy the US currency. The complete uncertainty of the country's future makes many investors calmly wait for the 2020 elections, and only after that, they will build new trade and investment plans. Thus, we believe that only the technical factor can help the US currency. If the majority of buyers stop believing in the euro and start fixing long positions, this may lead to a fall in the euro/dollar pair quotes.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 17 is 77 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1756 and 1.1910. The reversal of the Heiken ASHI indicator back to the top signals a round of upward movement in the remaining side channel of $ 1.17 - $ 1.19.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed below the moving average line and is trading in an absolute flat. Thus, formally, we can now consider short positions with the goal of the volatility level of 1.1756. It is recommended to re-consider options for opening long positions if the pair is fixed back above the moving average with a target near the level of 1.1910.

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