USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 25, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2650 on June 9.

Daily fixation above 1.2980 (61.8% Fibonacci level) allows a quick bullish movement towards 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) where price action should be watched for bearish rejection.

On the other hand, daily fixation below 1.3000 is needed to allow further bearish decline.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 25 , 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That is why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advancement was expected towards the price zone around 0.7200 (upper limit of the depicted channel).

Price action should have been watched around the price zone of 0.7150 - 0.7200 (upper limit of the depicted channel) for a valid SELL entry. T/P levels should be located at 0.6970, 0.6900, and 0.6850. S/L should be lowered to 0.7070.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6760 - 0.6860 constitutes a significant support zone to offer a bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry if the current bearish swing extends below 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 25, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (weekly supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as depicted on the charts.

Note that the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 now constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if any bullish pullback extends above 1.3550.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario.

A bearish decline should be expected towards 1.2700 (nearest bearish projection target) where price action should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 25, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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Similar to what happened in October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 constituted a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.

Later on May 18, daily persistence below the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1200 was needed to ensure enough bearish momentum towards the 1.1100 and 1.1000 levels. However, a lack of bearish pressure was manifested on June 1.

Hence, the recent bullish closure above 1.1200 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1400 where evident signs of bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were previously suggested. That's why, obvious bearish breakdown of 1.1200 took place on June 16

However, evident bullish rejection around 1.1130 (depicted uptrend line) brought the EUR/USD pair above 1.1200 again.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the zone of 1.1400 offered a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On July 8, recent bullish recovery has been manifested around the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range) until July 15 when significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1150.

This week, bearish fixation below 1.1000 allows a quick bearish decline towards 1.0820 (Key-Level 2) where price action should be considered.

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EUR/NZD analysis for July 25, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways at the price of 1.5720. According to the 3M time frame, I found weakness in the background. Strong supply in a high volume entered the market and after that I found up-thrust bars (supply overcame demand). There is also rounded top formation. Be careful when buying and watch for selling opportunities. Downward target level is set at the price of 1.5670.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5760

R2: 1.5800

R3: 1.5860

Support levels:

S1: 1.5645

S2: 1.5610

S3: 1.5550

Trading recommendations for today: Be careful when buying and watch for selling opportunities.

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Gold analysis for July 25, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,313.38 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a sign of strength in the background. There is a climax bar and very high volume down bar but closed in the middle. I saw successful testing of supply, which is a sign that sellers look risky. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of $1,319.50 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $1,323.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,331.15

R2: 1,331.80

R3: 1,332.85

Support levels:

S1: 1,329.00

S2: 1,328.30

S3: 1,327.30

Trading recommendations for today: selling looks risky, watch for buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 25, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair dropped from the level of 1.1033 to 1.0950, which coincides with a ratio of 38.2 % Fibonacci and the double bottom respectively on the H1 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1033 and 1.1000. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.1033; because the price is in a bearish channel now. The EUR/USD pair will continue to move downwards from the areas of 1.1033 in coming hours. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1033 and 1.0950. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.1033. Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.1033 to test it again. The level of 1.1033 will form a double bottom today. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.0950, the market will decline further to 1.0900 (daily support 2). On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.1033, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.1075. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.1033.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 25, 2016

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still trading between the levels of 1.3090 and 1.3239. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.3239 and 1.3090 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. Thus, we need to wait until the sideways channel is completed. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3090. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3090-1.3100. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the area of 1.3090-1.3100 with the first target at the level of 1.3239. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3239. We should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance (1.33454) to test it. Also, it should be noted that the double top is seen at the price of 1.3480. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.2998.
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Global macro overview for 25/07/2016

Global macro overview for 25/07/2016:

The British PMI Manufacturing data were revealed last week and they add more bad news for a post-Brexit Britain. This indicator was the first one published after the Brexit vote on 23rd June. Markit's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 49.1 points, down from 52.1 in June. The manufacturing activity is slumping at the fastest rate since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009. In conclusion, the UK economy has been under pressure as Brexit-related uncertainty darkened the outlook for businesses and there have been no clear signs of improvement so far.

Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the daily time frame. The pair trades clearly below the 55,100 and 200 daily moving averages, and the bear camp is in full control over this market. The daily support at 1.3067 is now being tested and if it's not broken out, it will lead to an immediate test of the next support at 1.2794.

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Global macro overview for 25/07/2016

Global macro overview for 25/07/2016:

The Institute for Economic Research has released German Ifo Business Climate data regarding the sentiment towards German and wider Eurozone economic conditions. The Ifo indicator was released at the level of 108.3, exceeding the anticipated number of 107.7, but still lower than the previous value of 108.8. In conclusion, the business morale fell in July, suggesting that the German company managers have become less optimistic since Britain voted to leave the European Union. Nevertheless, the decrease is not so big, and the German economy still proves to be resilient towards various global headwinds.

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the daily time frame. After the golden trend line had been broken out, the market felt below 55, 100 and 200 daily moving average and still trades below them. The bears are in control of this market and the next support is seen at 1.0910 level.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 25, 2016

General overview for 25/07/2016:

The current Elliott wave count was slightly changed to incorporate the latest developing. Currently, there are some indications that the top for the wave (b) might be in place and market should move lower in order to complete the wave (c). Nevertheless, as long as the golden trend line is now clearly violated and the intraday support at the level of 1.3056 is still providing support for bulls, the market might still be making another marginal highs.

Support/Resistance:

1.3255 - WR1

1.3185 - Intraday Resistance

1.3090 - Weekly Pivot

1.3056 - Intraday Support

1.2998 - WS1

1.2835 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Traders should refrain from opening new positions until better trading setup occurs. The general bias however, is bearish.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 25, 2016

EUR/USD: This pair moved south 100 pips, closing just above the support line at 1.0950. There is a "sell" signal on the 4-hour chart and there is a high probability that price would go further downwards this week, especially in the face of the expected stamina in the USD, which would aid bears.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has been able to maintain its bullishness. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and further upward movement is possible. The price has gone above the support level at 0.9850, testing the resistance level at 0.9900. Despite several bullish attacks, the resistance level is yet to be broken to the upside. However, that objective could be realized this week.

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GBP/USD: The Cable traded sideways last week, did not go neither above the distribution territory at 1.3400 nor below the accumulation territory at 1.2950. This caused the bias to become neutral in the near-term. But there could be a breakout this week or next, which would push the price above or below the aforementioned accumulation and distribution territories.

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USD/JPY: This market first went upwards by 200 pips, topping at 107.48. Further bullish signal was rejected at that point and the price began to be corrected to the downside – at least by 150 pips. However, this has not rendered the bullish bias invalid (expect price drops by another 150 pips). Additional drop is thus expected this week because the JPY pairs might come under selling pressure anytime in the week.

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EUR/JPY: There are mixed signals on this cross. It simply consolidated to the downside last week, but things have not gone completely bearish. That expectation could come to fruition this week; owing to a possible weakness in the JPY pairs. Thus, bears might be able to target the demand zones at 116.00, 115.50, and 115.00 this week.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 25, 2016

General overview for 25/07/2016:

The top for the wave b was established at the level of 118.38 and now another sub-wave down is being developed in order to complete the wave b green correction. Currently, the market trades in congestion zone that looks like a triangle pattern and a break out down towards the intraday support at the level of 115.48 is being anticipated.

Support/Resistance:

119.22 - WR2

118.38 - Wave b Top

117.63 - WR1

116.88 - Weekly Pivot

115.48 - Intraday Support

115.34 - WS1

114.81 - Technical Support

114.57 - WS2

113.01 - WS3

Trading recommendations:

All sell orders from the last week should be still kept open as there is still one more wave to the downside anticipated. The first TP is at the level of 115.48.

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Silver Technical Analysis for July 25, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading higher at $19.45 levels for now, after bottoming out around $19.35 levels during early trading hours today. The metal should be looking to rally from here towards at least $20.40/50 levels as depicted on hourly chart here. Bulls are expected to remain in control for short term, before the metal carves out a lower top ahead of $21.13 levels. Please note that a meaningful top is already in place at the $21.13 levels and is expected to move lower till prices stay below. The wave structure also indicates that a flat is underway and one should find Silver turning lower from around $20.50/80 levels. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to go short at higher levels; aggressive traders may remain long with risk below $19.25 levels. Immediate interim support is seen at the $19.20 levels, while resistance is at the $21.13 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive traders may remain long, stop below $19.25. Conservative traders look to go short at $20.50/80 levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 26, 2016

The Dollar index remains in a bullish short-term trend with higher highs and higher lows and could soon confirm the breakout above 96.70 by breaking above 97.70 and confirming the bullish trend towards new highs.

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Blue lines - bullish short-term channel

Red lines - long-term trading range

The Dollar index is trading inside the bullish blue channel making higher highs and higher lows above the 4-hour Kumo(cloud). As I mentioned last week, for the breakout above 96.70 to be confirmed, we should see a re-test and a follow-through upside move. This is exactly what is happening, and the Dollar confirms the breakout. Our next target is 97.70. If broken, we should expect more power to the upside.

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The weekly candle is testing the upper cloud boundary at 97.50-97.70. The trend is bullish. There is no divergence signal from the oscillators. The price is making higher highs and higher lows. A weekly close above the Kumo will be a very bullish signal for the index. Weekly critical support is now at 96.50.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for July 25, 2016

Gold remains in a short-term bearish trend after topping at $1,375 on July 11th. Since then, the price is steadily moving lower in what seems to be a large-degree correction with the initial target at the $1,300 level. The area of $1,280-$1,300 should provide a bounce that will clarify if we continue heading to new highs or move towards $1,250-$1,200.

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Red line - resistance

Gold is trading below the downward sloping red trend line and below the 4-hour Kumo. The trend is bearish. Resistance is found at $1,325 and at $1,334. Above the cloud at $1,350, we expect to see new highs. My preferred scenario so far is that any bounce should be short-lived and would get rejected below $1,350. The alternative would be an impulsive move higher above $1,350 towards $1,400-$1,430.

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Blue liens - bullish channel

Gold is trading above the Kumo on the daily chart and so far finds support at the weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $1,313. A daily close below $1,313 will push the price towards the Kumo support around $1,280-$1,295. My longer-term view remains bullish in Gold, and any pullback towards $1,250-$1,200 will be a gift for bulls.

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NZD/USD Trading Recommendations 25th July 2016

The price has dropped well from 0.7015 previously. If you had taken positions at this level, continue to add onto your position for a further drop to 0.6920/0.6950. Stop loss remains at 0.7040. We can see how the 0.7015 is a very strong resistance level as the price keeps failing to strongly surpass it.

The RSI remains below our 81% resistance line, keeping our bearish view.

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Trading Recommendations:

Sell now and at 0.7015

Take Profit at 0.6920/0.6950

Stop Loss at 0.7040

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AUD/NZD Trading Recommendation for 25th July 2016

AUD/NZD bounced right above our stop loss at 1.0655 and is rising towards our target. This is the updated view; as we can see the first resistance would be at 1.0755 before our target of 1.0800. We keep our stop loss at 1.0655 as it remains the fractal support (fibonacci retracement + graphical overlap), and we can see how the RSI has bounced off really well on our ascending support line.

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Trading Recommendations:

Buy and add onto positions now

Stop loss remains at 1.0655

Take profit half at 1.0755

Second take profit at 1.0800

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 25 - 2016

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Wave summary:

As the correction from 1.5837 has become deeper than expected, we have concluded wave i at 1.5837, and a correction in wave ii is currently unfolding. The first target to look for is the low [iv] at 1.5530. Once this target has been tested, the correction can terminate and a new impulsive rally towards at least 1.6381 and likely higher towards 1.6917 will be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buy opportunity at 1.5545 with stop placed at 1.5500. Or buy a break above minor resistance at 1.5801 with stop placed at 1.5590.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 25 - 2016

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Wave summary:

As long as minor resistance at 117.27 is able to protect the upside, we will be looking for a deeper correction in wave [ii] closer to 115.41 before the next impulsive rally towards minimum 120.47 is expected.

Short term, a break below minor support at 117.30 will confirm the corrective decline towards 115.41, and once this correction in wave [ii] is complete, a new impulsive rally is expected towards at least 120.47.

Trading recommendation:

Buy EUR at 115.55 with stop at 114.80 or upon a break above 117.27.

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Gold Technical Analysis for July 25, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is seen to be trading at $1,317.00/18.00 levels at this moment, after having hit lows at $1,313.00 during early trading hours today. Please note that the metal might still unfold a countertrend rally towards $1,350.00/60.00 levels going forward. The wave structure also indicates that the drop from $1,375.00 through $1,310.00 levels is an impulse (5 waves), and hence a countertrend rally is most probable to unfold. Bulls would want to remain in control till prices stay above $1,310.00 levels. Please also note that the metal might drop to $1,305.00/07.00 levels before reversing. It is hence recommended to remain long (aggressive trade setup) for now with risk below $1,310.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,313.00 levels, while resistance is at $1,334.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive traders would want to remain long, stop below $1,310.00, targeting $1,350.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 25, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Ifo Business Climate. The US will not release any economic data today, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1020.

Strong Resistance: 1.1014.

Original Resistance: 1.1003.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0992.

Target Inner Area: 1.0967.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0942.

Original Support: 1.0931.

Strong Support: 1.0920.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0914.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 25, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance, but the US will not release any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 107.14.

Resistance. 2: 106.93.

Resistance. 1: 106.72.

Support. 1: 106.46

Support. 2: 106.25.

Support. 3: 106.04.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 25, 2016

The index is looking to perform a consolidation above the support level of 97.27, and we can expect further rallies towards the 97.74 level. A breakout higher can lead it to reach higher levels in coming days. The bullish bias will remain alive, at least until this Wednesday, before the Fed's interest rate decision takes place. The MACD indicator is showing overbought conditions.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.74 / 98.23

H1 chart's support levels: 97.27 / 96.60

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.27, take profit is at 97.74 and stop loss is at 97.24.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 25, 2016

GBP/USD continues to struggle with the support zone of 1.3076, after a huge decline it had during Friday's session. Currently, the pair is doing a consolidation below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, and an eventual breakout below the 1.3076 level will open the doors to test the 1.2976 price zone. The MACD indicator is entering positive territory and supporting a possible bullish idea for the Cable.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3148 / 1.3266

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3076 / 1.2976

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3148, take profit is at 1.3266 and stop loss is at 1.3026.

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