EUR/NZD analysis for September 18, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As we expected, the price re-tested and rejected from the level of 1.800 (our key resistance). In the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in a volume above the average. The intraday trend has changed from upward to downward. I found strong trading range between the levels of 1.8000 (resistance) and 1.7270 (support). In the H4 time frame, we can observe massive buying climax in the background. Buying looks very risky. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.8030

R2: 1.8111

R3: 1.8245

Support levels:

S1: 1.7766

S2: 1.7685

S3: 1.7555

Trading recommendations: There is weakness on the market from the top. The trend is downward so watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. Strong resistance at the price of 1.8000 was held sucessfully.

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 18, 2015

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Overview

According to the attached chart, silver price traded positively this morning, moving from our first main target at 15.65, and the price gets support from the EMA50. To keep the bullish trend expectations valid for the rest of the day, its continuation requires holding above the 14.85 level. We remind you that breaching the 15.65 level will extend the bullish wave to 16.30 as a next main station.

Silver price achieved a clear breach to the bearish channel's resistance and settled with a daily close above it, which stops the recently suggested negative scenario and turns trading to the upside, and the positive targets begin at 15.65 and extend to 16.30.

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Weekly outlook of GBP/JPY for September 18, 2015

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Overview

A rebound of GBP/JPY last week was limited by the 187.36 resistance so far, and there is no clear sign of strength yet. Nevertheless, development in other crosses suggests some yen weakness ahead. Initial bias in GBP/JPY is neutral this week. A firm break of the 187.36 resistance will argue that a fall from 195.86 has completed. More importantly, this will be a signal that a larger uptrend is resuming. Meanwhile, below 183.87, minor support will turn focus back to 180.36 instead. The break of the medium-term trendline support is taken as a sign of trend reversal. This is supported by bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. Besides, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to 200 psychological level. A break of 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we will be cautious of strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 to bring reversal finally.

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Global macro overview for 18/09/2015

Global macro overview for 18/09/2015:

Besides yesterday's Fed's rate decision, important economic news on the Swiss Libor Rate and 3-Month Libor Target Range was published. The market expectations were in line with the data as none of the figures was changed: libor rate is still at the level of -0.75% and libor target range is between -0.25% and-1.25%. Moreover, SNB's Jordan in his statement said the Swiss franc is still overvalued and current situation will have an negative effect on the foreseeable future as the Swiss economy is still in difficult situation.

The EUR/CHF pair negatively responded to the release. After reversal from the level of 1.1050, it got back into the congestion area. Currently, EUR/CHF is trading at the local support level of 1.0950.

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Global macro overview for 18/09/2015

Global macro overview for 18/09/2015:

The Fed remained on hold yesterday and maintained the short-term interest rates unchanged at the level of 0,05%. Moreover, the most surprising statement from yesterday's press conference, was a very dovish inflation forecast. The Fed forecasted tfunds will be lowered by 25 bps in late 2015, 2016, and 2017 as the core inflation target of 2% will not be reached until 2018.This might means that even if the Fed starts raising the rates one day in 2018, the hike will be very slow and gradual. Moreover, the regulator refrained from rates raising because of both global and domestic factors. The US economy recovery was assumed as strong and progressive, but global concerns about decreasing commodity and oil prices is expected to have a further negative impact on inflation.

The EUR/USD pair has responced positive to the Fed's news. Currently, it is trading at the golden trend line resistance around the level of 1.1458.

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USDX technical analysis for September 18, 2015

The US Dollar Index was greatly influenced by the FOMC meeting last night and the Fed's decision to remain rates unchanged and wait until October. The US dollar ellers and technically this was expected by our previous analysis as price was below important resistance and we expected a pullback towards 61.8% retracement.

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Green line - resistance

The US Dollar Index broke below the 38% retracement support and is heading towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A trend is bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud moving towards lower lows and lower highs.

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Red line - resistance

Green line- support

The US Dollar Index is testing the weekly cloud support. The price is trading below the weekly kijun- and tenkan-sen resistance indicators at 95.50 and 96.30. The weekly cloud is providing support and the price is now testing the upper boundary of the cloud. Entering the cloud will turn the longer-term tend neutral. The bullish flag pattern continues to be active with support near 93.40.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 18, 2015

General overview for 18/09/2015 09:40 CET

The high of the wave a green has been established at the level of 137.44, and currently the market is in decline as the wave b green progresses. Any breakout below the intraday support at the level of 136.00 will directly expose the important wave (b) blue low at the level of 135.00. On the other hand, to continue to the upside, the market must break out above the golden trendline and make a new high above the level of 137.45.

Support/Resistance:

137.45 - Intraday Resistance

136.62 - Intraday Resistnace

136.00 - Intraday Support

135.72 - Weekly Pivot

135.00 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above the level of 136.63 and TP at the level of 136.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 18, 2015

General overview for 18/09/2015 09:20 CET

The distribution pattern that was anticipated correctly as the price slides towards the important technical support level after yesterday's Fed meeting. The impulsive bearish scenario to the downside is still valid and the first confirmation will come with the supply breakthrough zone violation. The first support is then at the level of 1.3022.

Support/Resistance:

1.3022 - Technical Support

1.3072 - Technical Support

1.3087 - WS2

1.3115 - Intraday Support

1.3178 - WS1

1.3243 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above the level of 1.3161 and TP at the level of 1.3115.

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Gold wave analysis for September 18, 2015

Gold price sent a bullish signal yesterday after breaking above the resistance at $1,115. It bounced as we had expected towards $1,125-30. Gold price is moving in a bullish uptrend and has most probably completed 5 waves up from its recent lows.

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Black line - resistance (broken)

Gold price has made 5 waves up from its recent lows. I would expect a pullback towards cloud support and the 38% Fibonacci retracement before resuming the uptrend. Recently, I warned traders not to open short positions and yesterday's price action confirmed my expectations.

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The weekly chart is generesing signs of reversal. This week's candle is above the tenkan-sen resistance indicator. In case of this week's close above $1,125, we could see another rally towards the kijun-sen (yellow indicator) next week. There are also increased chances of a move towards $1,200 if $1,150 gets broken.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 18, 2015

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Technical summary:

Important resistance at 1.8000 is still firm. The pair needs to breakout this line to continue higher towards at least 1.8288 or even higher to 1.8682.

In the short term, support at 1.7674 should protect the downside or we run a risk of returning back to strong support at 1.7400.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7490. We will move our stop higher to 1.7665. If you are not long EUR yet, buy only on a breakout above 1.8000 and place stop at 1.7800.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 18, 2015

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Technical summary:

We saw a breakout above resistance at 137.04, but it was almost immediately reversed, which indicated that we saw a failure breakout. Tthe downside pressure will increase now.

In the short term, we will need a break below support at 135.99 to confirm that the x-wave is over and a new decline towards 131.45 is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR here at 136.62 and will place stop at 137.40

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 18, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the Current Account is due to be released. The US will unveil data about the CB Leading Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1458.

Strong Resistance:1.1451.

Original Resistance: 1.1440.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1429.

Target Inner Area: 1.1402.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1375.

Original Support: 1.1364.

Strong Support: 1.1353.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1346.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 18, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The US will publish economic data on the CB Leading Index m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.66.

Resistance. 2: 120.42.

Resistance. 1: 120.19.

Support. 1: 119.90.

Support. 2: 119.67.

Support. 3: 119.43.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 18, 2015

On the daily chart, the USDX is reaching the 200 SMA after the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the interest rates unchanged. The index could break the support level of 94.42 in coming days to reach a fresh low near the support zone of 93.18, which is below the moving average.

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The index is currently moving into a bearish path below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, with a lower low pattern formation below the resistance level of 94.57. A breakout below the support zone of 94.36 will push the USDX lower until 93.95. The MACD indicator is entering oversold territory, and that is why we could expect some corrective rebounds.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.26 / 95.83

Daily chart's support levels: 94.42 / 93.18

H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.57 / 94.97

H1 chart's support levels: 94.36 / 93.95

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.36, take profit is at 93.95, and stop loss is at 94.75.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 18, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair went upwards significantly on Thursday, moving towards the resistance line at 1.1450. It is possible that the pair would continue moving upwards, breaking the resistance line at 1.1500 to the upside. It closed above this level today.

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USD/CHF: In the direction opposite to the EUR/USD pair, USD/CHF broke downwards from its equilibrium phase. This could be a beginning of a strong downtrend, especially when the support level at 0.9500 is broken to the downside. Currentl,y the support level at 0.9600 is being tested.

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GBP/USD: The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this currency trading instrument is still valid. From the accumulation territory at 1.5350, the price went upwards, ramming into the distribution territory at 1.5600. The aforementioned distribution territory could be broken to the upside, especially with continuation of the current buying pressure.

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USD/JPY: This pair moved slightly southwards on Thursday, but it cannot be said that the current equilibrium phase is over, for this might be a false breakout. Only a movement below the demand level at 119.00 would show that the trend has really become bearish. There is a supply level at 122.00.

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EUR/JPY: In spite of the threats from bears, this cross was able to move further upwards, crossing above the demand zone of 137.00. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. This means that the bullish pressure is now formidable - something that may push the price further northwards.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 18, 2015

The markets are running into a dominant bias established after the Fed's meeting, and the US Dollar is now weak, pushing higher the GBP/USD pair towards new untouched levels. Currently, the pair is trading above the 200 SMA on the daily chart and the closest resistance is located around the level of 1.5634. The MACD indicator is moving at the positive territory.

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On the H1 chart, there is a bullish rally ongoing above the support level of 1.5661. Now it is facing a strong resistance around 1.5609, the level which should be broken in order to reach new highs at least until 1.5655. On the other hand, a pullback at current levels will push lower the cable until the level of 1.5516.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5479 / 1.5559

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5329 / 1.5181

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5609 / 1.5655

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5561 / 1.5516

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5609, take profit is at 1.5655, and stop loss is at 1.5561.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 18, 2015

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Overview:

  • The The daily pivot point of EUR/USD pair set at the level of 1.1324 this week. Now it is acting as strong support. As it is known, buyers are bidding for a lower prices. Therefore, the first key level is seen at1.1324 and the second key level is expected at 1.1360. So, the support area is found at the level of 1.1324/1.1360, while the double bottom is going to formed at 1.1320. The EUR/USD pair has called for the bullish market starting from the level of 1.1324/1.1360, because the price of 1.1324 represents strong support. We advise to buy above the support at 1.1324 with the first target at 1.1471 in order to test the weekly resistance 2 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels). Moreover, if the pair is able to break the level of 1.1471, it will continue moving towards 1.1503. However, the stop loss has always been in consideration. Thus, it will be useful below the last double bottom at the level of 1.1320 (notice that the major support on September 18, 2015 set at 1.1324).

Notes:

  • The daily pivot point 1.1324 could hit the moving average (50).
  • Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.
  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.
  • As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the previous day had a huge volatility.
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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for September 18, 2015

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Overview:

  • The AUD/USD pair rose from the strong level of 0.7140 and extended further to as high as 0.7172 yesterday, but it closed at the level of 0.7165 today. It should be noted that support is seen at 0.7140 because this level has also formed double bottom. Furthermore, the price set above 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels since last week. For that purpose, we expect a saturation around the level of 0.7140 or 0.7132. Hence, the market is likely to start showing the signs of a bullish bias again from this spot in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 0.7140 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart). Accordingly, buy above the level of 0.7140 with the first target at 0.7191 besides it will call for an uptrend in order to continue bullish movement towards 0.7250 in coming hours. On the other hand, if the bulls are forced to pull back below the level of 0.7125 and sellers can break this level, therefore the best solution is to set a stop loss at the 0.712.
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Daily analysis of Silver for September 17, 2015

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Overview

Silver price traded with clear positivity yesterday testing the bearish channel's resistance level at 14.95, accompanied by clear signals that come from stochastic in the four-hour time frame, which supports the chances of bouncing lower to resume the main bearish trend, waiting for visiting levels that begin at 14.30 and 13.05. The metal hovers around the bearish channel's resistance, and stochastic continues to provide negative signals in the four-hours time frame, keeping the bearish trend scenario efficiently for today, which targets 14.30 and 13.05 levels mainly.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 17, 2015

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Overview

As we can see on the H4 chart, a breakout of minor resistance 187.36 suggested that rebound from 180.36 was resuming. More importantly, the development argues that a correction pattern at 195.86 is completed with three waves down to 180.36. The pair is expected to head towards the next resistance level of 95.86. The breakout of the medium-term trend-line support is taken as a sign of trend reversal. This is supported by bearish divergence condition inthe weekly MACD. Also, GBP/JPY was close to key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the psychological level of 200 . A break of 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and cause a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we should be cautious as strong resistance of 199.80/200.00 could finally bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.94; (P) 186.06; (R1) 187.89;

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 17, 2015

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Overview:

Several months ago, when bulls pushed the price above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs), resulting in lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened the way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Higher lows were reached. Bullish pressure was applied to the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick was rather bullish. That is why an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) where bearish pressure should be expected. Bulls are revisiting this level today.

Bearish corrective movement towards the level of 1.2750 (Breakout Level) should be expected as long as USD/CAD bears keep defending the Fibonacci Expansion zone around 1.3270 - 1.3300.

Moreover, bearish persistence below 1.3100 (lower limit of the depicted Flag pattern) is needed to expose the next support level around 1.2910 and then 1.2800 where long-term buy entries can be considered.

Trading recommendations:

A counter-trend sell entry can be offered at the current price levels around 1.3330 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%). S/L should be placed above the level of 1.3400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.3200 and 1.3050.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the breakout level constitutes the recent strong support.

S/L should be located below the level of 1.2700. T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 17, 2015

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The pair was moved lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, July, and August) reflected the recent bearish rejection that took place around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 will take place only if a high of 1.1465 gets breached.

It can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes above a weekly high of 1.1465 by the end of the current month.

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Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to the current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Extensive bullish pressure was applied until bearish resistance was expressed around the level of 1.1700.

The market looked overbought as bulls were pushing further beyond the price level of 1.1500 (Daily Supply Level).

Hence, bearish movement took place towards the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which provided evident bullish rejection (note the recent daily candlesticks).

The current price zone of 1.1300-1.1330 constitutes an intraday supply level which provided bearish rejections many times before. It should be defended by bears to achieve further bearish decline.

That's why, an Intraday SELL entry can be offered around the current price levels with T/P levels placed at 1.1150 and 1.1050.

On the other hand, daily persistence below the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is mandatory to expose the next demand level around 1.0980 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the pair.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the price zone of 1.0980-1.1000 (the depicted uptrend line) for a valid BUY entry.

S/L should be placed below 1.0950. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1080 and 1.1160.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 17, 2015

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which has been providing evident resistance for the GBP/USD pair.

For several weeks, consecutive weekly candlesticks have been generating contradictory signals.

Previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.5670 (previous weekly high) and 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

The most recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing ones, closing below the level of 1.5450 (Head and Shoulders neckline).

This enhances the bearish side of the market in the long term. For the reversal pattern, an approximate projection target should be located at the level of 1.5050.

In the short term, the nearest demand level to meet the GBP/USD pair is located around 1.5200.

It constituted a prominent demand level that prevented further weekly decline. It is where the previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was initiated.

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Previously, the zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5550, which corresponded to the 50% Fibonacci level and the previous prominent top, was temporarily broken enabling further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was established.

Prominent supply/resistance existed around the level of 1.5770 (prominent 61.8% Fibonacci level) where the right shoulder of the depicted bearish reversal pattern.

That is why, a valid sell entry was suggested for retesting at 1.5770 three weeks ago. Most of its targets have been already achieved.

Moreover, the previous bearish movement found its way towards the level of 1.5200 (Prominent Demand Level), which prevented further bearish decline. Instead of it, evident bullish rejection was expressed (bullish engulfing daily candlesticks).

Trade Recommendation:

A valid sell entry should expect around the current price zone of 1.5500-1.5550 (recent resistance zone). It corresponds to (50% Fibonacci level) and the backside of a broken uptrend.

T/P levels to be projected towards 1.5200 then 1.5050, while S/L should be placed above 1.5600.

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