Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 30, 2015

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The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially if the current monthly breakout below 1.2000 maintains its bearish momentum until the end of January.


During the past few weeks, EUR/USD bears have been challenging historical lows that were established back in 2005 and 2003. Some bullish recovery is finally being witnessed this week.


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On the daily chart the market looks oversold below the price level of 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT and the lower limit of the movement channel on the daily chart).


As it was suggested in the previous articles, conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700).


The price zone of 1.1540-1.1600 is a recently established SUPPLY zone. Short-term SELL positions can be taken there. Stop loss should be placed slightly above the price level of 1.1680.


On the other hand, persistence below 1.1385-1.1400 (previous daily HIGHs) exposes the recent lows around 1.1110 for retesting.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 30, 2015

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The previous consolidation movement extended between the price levels of 1.5550 and 1.5770, it represented a period of indecision of the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.


Bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already reached the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 which have not been visited since July 2013.


As it was suggested in the previous articles, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the recent SUPPLY zone around 1.5370-1.5450 for a low-risk SELL entry.


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The market has already pushed further below the price level of 1.5140 (projection target of the previous bearish breakout) reaching the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel around 1.5000.


On January 8, the GBP/USD pair has shown initial bullish recovery off the price level of 1.5050. Since then, the pair has trapped within a consolidation zone ranging between 1.4960 and 1.5230.


The daily closure below 1.4960 renders the current movement as a bearish FLAG pattern similar to what happened back in December 2014. Projection targets would be located around 1.4750.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2015

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Overview:


The daily closure below the recent bottoms located around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with projection target at 1.5300.


The market has already pushed further below this level reaching down to 1.5030-1.4980 where the lower limit of the channel has been providing support for the pair over the past few weeks.


Earlier this week, bullish recovery was manifested on the daily chart. A temporary bullish breakout above the upper limit of the short-term flag pattern took place.


The H4 chart shows transition into a sideway movement with mild bearish tendency, maintained within the depicted sideway channel.


The key-support level for today is the price level of 1.5030 (yesterday's low). Breakout below 1.5025 exposes the lower limit of the current ranging movement located around 1.4920 where bullish recovery should be anticipated.


Trading recommendations:


A short-term LONG position may be considered at retesting of price zone of 1.4920-1.4900. Target Levels should be located at 1.5030, 1.5100 and 1.5150.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2015

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Overview:


The USD/CAD pair established previous consolidation zone between the price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670. This price zone roughly corresponds to 61.8% prominent WEEKLY Fibonacci level. Bullish breakout above it allowed bulls to reach new highs around 1.2560.


The market looks quite overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels. Hence, a coming bearish correction should be anticipated.


Wednesday's bullish engulfing daily candlestick invalidated the preceding Hanging-Man candlestick.


Moreover, the USD/CAD bulls defended the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.2300. Hence, a new bullish swing is being established without further retesting of 1.1950.


The nearest resistance levels to meet the USD/CAD pair are located around 1.2820, then 1.2930 where previous WEEKLY highs were established back in 2009.


Trading recommendations:


It's recommended to stay out of the market until the next destination of the USD/CAD pair becomes obvious, but, anyway, try to look for signs of bearish reversal around such historically high prices (1.2850-1.2900).


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 30, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair seems to be correcting lower towards the levels of 132.00/131.75 before resuming rally towards 138.00 and higher. It is recommended to remain long for now and also look for adding further on dips into 132.00. Immediate support is seen at 132.30 (interim), followed by 131.75 (fibonacci 0.618) and lower while resistance is seen at the levels of 134.00, followed by 137.50, 138.00 and higher, respectively. Bulls should be poised to remain in control untill prices remain above the levels of 130.00 from here on. Please keep the bigger picture in mind: "The drop from the levels of 149.80 has been in 5 waves. A 3 wave corrective rally is on cards towards the levels of 142.30 from here."


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop is at 130.00, target is 138.00 for now.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 30, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair is trading in a 100-pip range between 1.3870 and 1.3970 for now, after it broke above the of levels 1.3350/1.3400 earlier. The upside potential still remains at 1.4100 which is Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop from the levels of 1.5550 to 1.1800, respectively. It is recommended to hold long positions and also to look for adding further on dips. Immediate support is seen at 1.3650, followed by 1.3450, 1.3350/3400 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.3980 (interim), followed by 1.4100 and higher, respectively. Bears could resume down swing for the levels of 1.4100.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop is at break, even target is 1.4100.


Good luck!




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Gold analysis for January 30, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1,251.82 in a volume above the average. According to the H4 time frame, we got selling climax and potential end of bearish corrective phase (abcd). Our Fibonacci expansion 100 % at the price of 1,262.00 got broken. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows (buy on the dips). I have placed Fibonacci retracement from the most recent swings and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,254.00. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,254.00 in a strong volume, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1,240.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%).


Daily Fibonacci pivot points :


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,278.05


R2: 1,286.19


R3: 1,299.37


Support levels :


S1: 1,251.69


S2: 1,243.55


S3: 1,230.37


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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EUR/NZD analysis for January 30, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. There is not many movements today. The price tested the level of 1.5658 in a volume below the average. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5415 got broken so we may expect testing of the level of 1.5800 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). Accordiung to the monthly time frame, we can observe successful rejection from our support level at the price of 1.5000. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky so my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips). According to the previous price action, I have found support level at the price of 1.5440 (swing high like support).


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5626


R2: 1.5692


R3: 1.5797


Support levels:


S1: 1.5415


S2: 1.5439


S3: 1.5243


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling since we have successful rejection from monthly support level in the background.




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Technical analysis of Silver for January 30, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver drops beyond minimum expected price at $17.35 as it was discussed and expected yesterday. The metal broke below the levels of $17.35, the Fibonacci 0.382 support, and dropped towards the levels of $16.60 as seen here. Please note that a bounce from here is expected since it is Fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $15.50 and $18.50, respectively. Immediate support is seen at $16.50 followed by $16.20, $15.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $18.20 followed by $18.40/50, $18.90 and higher, respectively. It is recommended to remain long and also look for adding further positions here. Bulls should remain poised to rally through fresh swing highs in the coming sessions.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, add further positions here, stop is at $15.50, target is $21.00.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for January 30, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has dropped around the levels of $1,250.00 as expected and discussed earlier and probably resumed pullback. It was recommended to initiate long positions around the levels of $1,250.00, and further longs can also be added here. Please note that the metal has hit support at Fibonacci 0.382 levels and that it can continue rallying to fresh highs from here. However, a break below the levels of $1,250.00 would further test $1,220.00 before resuming rally. Immediate support is seen at $1,225.00 followed by $1,205.00 and lower while resistance is seen at the levels of $1,295.00 followed by $1,307.00 and higher, respectively. Bulls should remain in control untill prices remain above the levels of $1,170.00.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate fresh long positions here, stop is at $1,245.00, target is $1,340.00/50.00.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 30, 2015

General overview for 30/01/2015 12:30 CET


The wave progression inside the sub-wave (b) blue has a corrective shape and the market is trading inside the intraday range zone between the levels of 132.48 - 134.21. The intraday resistance has been tested twice already and now it will act as a strong resistance level, so any potential breakout above the level will be severe. Please notice that there is missing wave (c) blue to the upside, so now if the level of 134.21 is violated, the wave (c) blue should be impassive rally towards the level of 137.63.


Support/Resistance:


137.63 - Technical Resistance


134.99 - WR1


134.21 - Intraday Resistance| Key Level|


132.95 - Weekly Pivot


132.48 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


Not much has changed since yesterday: the market still trades below the level of 134.21. Choppy trading conditions are expected as the market might be making wave 4 black in a shape of triangle or any other corrective shape. Any breakout higher above the level of 134.21 is bullish and buy orders should be opened with SL below one of the intraday support levels.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 30, 2015

General overview for 30/01/2015 12:15 CET


As it was anticipated yesterday the wave progression to the upside continue,s and the price is about to hit the projected target area at the level of 1.2698. Moreover, there is still a possibility that the upward wave progression will get extended and the next projected target zone in the shape of an orange rectangle between the levels of 1.2769 - 1.2790 might get hit. Please notice the momentum is still diverging from the price and the correction to the downside is imminent.


Support/Resistance:


1.2769 - 1.2790 - Extended Target Projection


1.2698 - WR1


1.2676 - Local High|Intraday Resistance|


1.2604 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


Buy orders from yesterday should be still kept open as the market approaches the TP at the level of 1.2698. A target extension to the 1.2769 - 1.2709 area is still possible.


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 30, 2015

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Overview :



  • According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.7324 and 0.7214. The strong resistance level will be formed at the level of 0.7324 (this level coincides with the ratio of 11.8% Fibonacci retracement levels in the weekly time frame) providing a clear signal for sell deals with the targets seen at 0.7214 and then at 0.7121 in order to test the double bottom on the same chart. The stop-loss is to be placed above the resistance at the level of 0.7362. On the other hand, the strong support level will be formed at the level of 0.7121 (this level coincides with the ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement levels) providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 0.7200 and 0.7283. Also, it should be noted that if the trend breaks the 0.7283, it will continue towards the weekly resistance 1 at the price of 0.7324 which represents a strong resistance. However, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. So, it is to be placed below the double bottom at the price of 0.7108.



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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 30, 2015

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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the price of EUR/USD is going to move between the levels of 1.1240 and 1.3360. It should be noted that the market is calling for a sideways trend. And the strong support has been already placed at the level of 1.1235 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels). So, buy above the level of 1.1235 which represents a minor support on the H1 chart with the first target at 1.3320. Then, the trend will be able to continue toward the level of 1.3360 in order to test the resistance . Also, it should be noticed that the weekly resistance 1 coincides with the price of 1.2389. Nevertheless, the stop loss should be set at 1.1208.



Review :



  • The key level will be set at the level of 1.3334. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.3334 represents the weekly pivot point.

  • The support of the EUR/USD pair has already set at 1.1235.

  • Moreover, the weekly support 1 will be set at the same level. If the trend fails to close below the level of 1.1235, it will be a good opportunity to buy above 1.1235 with the first target at 1.3020, then it will be continued straight towards 1.3060 in the coming hours.

  • The price of 1.1389 represents the weekly resistance 1, and 1.1395 is going to form a double top on the H1 chart.

  • So, we expect a new range about 210 pips this week.



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#USDX technical analysis for January 30, 2015

The Dollar index remains in a strong uptrend. Breakig above the recent high at 95.50 will be a signal to move higher towards 100. The short-term trend is bullish as long as the price is above 92.50. The daily chart below shows how the price remains above the tenkan-sen support and, I believe that the current sideways action is just a pause to the bigger uptrend.


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Support is at 93.70 while resistance is found at 95 and 95.50. Breaking above 95 will be a short-term buy signal that will most probably push the index towards its highs and test them. If the highs are broken, I expect the index to continue higher towards 100.


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On a monthly basis we touched the 50% retracement and stopped the sharp rise. Trend is clearly bullish and, as I have said many times before, I believe. traders should not bet against the Dollar. The Dollar is strong and is rising sweeping all sellers. Next target is 100.


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Gold technical analysis for January 30, 2015

Gold price has broken the triangle pattern to the downside and pushed towards the next support that I mentioned yesterday at $1,250 where the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise is found. Gold price remains in an upward sloping channel and next target can be the level of $1,330.


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Gold price has broken the $1,272 support and has pushed lower, as expected, towards the 38% retracement. Support at 38% is held and we now test the Ichimoku cloud lower boundaries. Gold price has short-term resistance at $1,275 while short-term support is at $1,250.


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Blue lines = trend channel


Gold price on the daily chart has broken the tenkan-sen and is moving towards the kijun-sen and the lower channel boundaries. The short-term support at $1,250 may prove the base for another leg up towards $1,330.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 30, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await the US 4Q flash GDP (forecast +3.2%) and the US 4Q employment cost index (forecast +0.6%)at 13:30 GMT . USD/JPY is underpinned by the reduced safe haven appeal of the yen amid improved global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 8.22% to 18.76; S&P 500 closed up 0.95% at 2,021.25 overnight) and the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.68 versus 94.62 early Thursday) on fewer than expected U.S. jobless claims 265,000 for the week ended on January 24 - it turned out to be at the lowest level since April 2000 (versus forecast 300,000). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.764% versus 1.728% late Wednesday), demand from Japan's importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment are dented by the surprise 3.7% drop in the US pending home sales index to 100.7 in December (versus forecast +0.6%). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese exports and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, stochastics is neutral, five and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.55. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 17.20. The pivot point stands at 118.45. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.75 and the second target at 119.


Resistance levels:

118.75

119

119.35

Support levels:

17.55

17.20

116.80


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 30, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.68 versus 94.62 early Thursday) on fewer than expected 265,000 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended on January 24, it turned out to be at the lowest level since April 2000 (versus forecast 300,000). The currency pair is also supported by the franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies, the negative Swiss interest rates and by the threat of the SNB CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting positive as stochastics is in bullish mode, the MACD histogram bars are turning positive.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9365 and the second target at 0.9435. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8985. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.8925. The pivot point is at 0.9075.


Resistance levels:

0.9365

0.9435

0.9465


Support levels:

0.8985

0.8925

0.89


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 30, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near a four-year low 0.7228 on Thursday. The kiwi is hurt by the shift in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary stance from tightening bias to neutral. NZD/USD is also weighed by the Fonterra cutting its milk volume forecast for the year ending on May 31 by 3.3% from its prior forecast to 1.53 billion kg of milk solids, by 2.1% drop in the New Zealand December building consents issued and bu the bullish dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positive risk sentiment, the kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7235. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 0.7210. The pivot point stands at 0.7350. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7440 and the second target at 0.7465.


Resistance levels:

0.7440

0.7465

0.75



Support levels:


0.7235

0.7210

0.7145


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 30, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and the demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend. The GBP sentiment is dented as yield on the 10-year UK bond settled at 1.419% on Thursday at the lowest closing amid expectations of the low UK inflation.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold levels.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 177.15. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 176.45. The pivot point stands at 178.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.45 and the second target at 180.15.


Resistance levels:

179.45

180.15

180.90


Support levels:

177.15

176.45

175.75


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Daily analysis of USDX for January 30, 2015

The USDX is still strong in the bullish bias and the next target for this instrument continues to be the resistance level of 95.45 on the daily chart. Also, remember that the USDX formed a fractal below the support level of 94.18, that could be an indication of a bullish strengthening. At the moment, we recommend to hold buy positions until the 95.45 level.


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As for the intraday outlook, the USDX seems to be following the bullish bias above the 200 SMA with a trend line. Currently, the instrument is trying to perform a breakout at the resistance level of 94.78. If successful, the next target could be placed at the 95.05 level. Also, the price action is showing us some bullish patterns on the H1 chart.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.45 / 97.52


Dailychart's support levels: 94.18 / 93.02


H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.78 / 95.05


H1 chart's support levels: 94.38 / 94.02




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.78, take profit is at 95.05, and stop loss is at 94.49.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 30, 2015

Bears again took control of the current bias on the GBP/USD pair. The support level of 1.5025 is still the nearest target on the daily chart. If the GBP/USD pair makes a breakout on that level, the bearish bias could be extended for several weeks, as this pair has a long-term target at the level of 1.4600. The MACD indicator is still on the positive territory.


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On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair had a strong fall until the support level of 1.5039, where this pair did a rebound . Currently, the pair is forming a bearish pattern, but there are high odds that the GBP/USD pair will reach first the resistance level of 1.5084. Anyway, the pair is still below the 200 SMA and if it does a breakout in the zone of 1.5039, the next target could be the level of 1.4994.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5247 / 1.5491


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5025 / 1.4853


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5084 / 1.5142


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5039/ 1.4994




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5039, take profit is at 1.4994, and stop loss is at 1.5084.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 30, 2015

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When the European market opens, a batch of economic news will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will also release several economic data such as the Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Employment Cost Index q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, and Advance GDP q/q. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1382.


Strong Resistance:1.1375.


Original Resistance: 1.1364.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1353.


Target Inner Area: 1.1326.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1299.


Original Support: 1.1288.


Strong Support: 1.1277.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1270.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 30, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release a variety of reports such the Housing Starts y/y, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Unemployment Rate, National Core CPI y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, and Household Spending y/y. The US will also release several economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Employment Cost Index q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, and Advance GDP q/q. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 118.72.


Resistance. 2: 118.49.


Resistance. 1: 118.25.


Support. 1: 117.97.


Support. 2: 117.753.


Support. 3: 117.50.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on GBP/USD for January 30, 2015

The Pound was rejected from 20Dsma and tumbled against the strong US dollar. The UK's annual house price growth slowed to 6.8% in January from 7.2% in December. It has slowed for the fifth month in a row. The US unemployment claims plunged, which gave strong support to the greenback. In the week ending January 24, the flash figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000 which is a decrease by 43,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level of initial claims since April 15, 2000. But the pending home sales data was disappointing and declined 3.7%.


As of now, this week the cable managed to hold the previous week's low at 1.4951. The cable erased half of its week's gains, trading in marginal green on a weekly basis. Today, at the Asian session the prices are facing resistance at 12ema on the H1-chart. The hourly resistance levels exists at 1.5090, 1.5115, and 1.5135. Until the prices close below 1.5135, bears have an upper hand. We can see a pullback only above 1.5165 towards 1.5200 and 1.5225. Today, the focus has shifted to US preliminary GDP data.


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Forecast and trading recommendations of Gold for January 30, 2015

The yellow metal plunged into a 2-week low after a stellar 10% return earlier this year. The selling pressure touched the metal after the Greek election results and the selling pressure turns to profit booking after the Federal Reserve meeting. The open interest declines are representing the long unwinding taking place during this week. After the FOMC meeting, the USD regained its strength putting pressure on the metal. In yesterday's economic data, the unemployment claims showed a decrease of 43,000; besides, pending home sales data was disappointing making a 3.7% decline. Today, the focus has shifted to the flash GDP.


In yesterday's fall, the metal broke below the 50Wsma at $1,267.00; gold is still trading below it. The intraday support exists between $1,253.50 and $1,249.50 at 200Dema levels. In case if the metal breaks below $1,249.50, bears can challenge towards $1,238.00, $1,235.00, and $1,226.00 in the near term. Today's closing will provide enough trading room in the near term. In yesterday's article, we recommended selling at $1,282.00 with the target at $1,255.00. Gold made a low at $1,251.80. Today, the strategy will be to use a rise to sell or to do fresh selling below $1,249.00 levels. The intraday resistance exists at $1,263.00, $1,270.00 and $1,276.00. Risky buying will be triggered above $1,263.00 with the targets at $1,270.00 and $1,273.00. Bulls can challenge a strong upward momentum, only above $1,285.50. So, use every rise to sell. Previously, we recommended fresh buying only above $1,309 for $1,340.00, which was not triggered. Now, the fresh buying has come down to $1,286.00 levels.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation on USD/JPY for January 30, 2015

The strong US dollar took the pair towards 20Dsma. The US unemployment claims plunged, which gave a strong support to the greenback. In the week ending January 24, the flash figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000. But the Pending home sales data was disappointing, it declined 3.7%. On the other hand, Japan's retail sales unexpectedly fell in December. Sales declined 0.3% percent from November for a third month in a row. Today, the focus has shifted to US preliminary GDP.


The pair has been still consolidating in the same tight range between 118.85 and 117.10 as we discussed in our earlier reports. The prices are trading within a triangle on the h4 chart. In case if the prices managed to give an upside breakout, it can challenge towards 120.50. In yesterday's session the pair managed to close above 34hrsma levels. The prices are facing strong resistance at the 80.0 fib level on the h4-chart. For about 3 hours, the prices have been taking support from the previous swing high at 118.24. We recommend buying at the current price of 118.27 with the targets at 118.50, 118.65, and 118.80. On a positional basis, until the pair holds at 117.00 and trades above 118.85, it can give another stellar show towards 120.00+. In case if the pair breaks below 117.00, it can extend its fall to 115.00 and panic will spark below 115.00. The intraday support levels exists at 118.15 and 117.85. We recommend selling only below 117.85, until bulls have an upper hand.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 30, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair has made noteworthy attempt to go bullish this week – with visible results on some EUR pairs. This pair has moved upwards and it is currently consolidating, indicating a transitory pause in the buying pressure. When the current consolidation ends, the price may continue going further upwards.


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USD/CHF: As forecasted, the USD/CHF pair has moved upwards in a slow and steady manner and this upwards movement is supposed to continue this week, allowing further bullish development in the market. In addition, some fundamental figures are expected today and they can have some impact in the market.


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GBP/USD: Here, the GBP/USD pair is weak (though it is strong somewhere else). The price has moved upwards this week, challenging the distribution territory at 1.5200. This nearly rendered the existing bearish outlook useless, but the price was unable to go further upwards. The price fell from the distribution territory at 1.5200. The fact is this: long trades are no longer sensible in this market.


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USD/JPY: The ongoing stamina in the USD and the noticeable weakness in the JPY has enabled this market to go bullish in the near-term. The price is now above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The signal in the market is now a “buy.”


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EUR/JPY: The perpetual buying pressure on this cross has resulted in a threat that has almost rendered the Bearish Confirmation Pattern invalid. While, short trades are now becoming illogical here, a movement above the supply zone at 135.00 would signal the end of the extant recent bearish bias.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 29, 2015

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Overview:


The USD/CAD pair established a temporary consolidation zone between the price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670. This price zone roughly corresponds to 61.8% prominent WEEKLY Fibonacci level. Bullish breakout above it allowed bulls to reach new highs around 1.2560.


The market looks quite overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of the depicted bullish channels. Hence, high probability of bearish reversal exists.


The bearish reversal scenario indicated after the Hanging Man daily candlestick was invalidated with yesterday's bullish engulfing daily candlestick.


Moreover, USD/CAD bulls kept defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.2300. Hence, a new bullish swing is being established without further retesting of 1.1950.


The nearest resistance zone to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2800 where previous WEEKLY highs were previously established back in 2009.


Trading recommendations:


It's recommended to stay out of the market until the next destination of the USD/CAD pair becomes obvious, but at anyway try to look for SELL entries at such historically high prices.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 29, 2015

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Overview:


On December 17, the market failed to express a bullish breakout above the upper limit of the daily bearish channel. Shortly after, an extensive bearish pressure was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 on December 23.


The daily closure below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with projection target at 1.5300.


The market has already pushed further below this level reaching down to 1.5030-1.4980 where the lower limit of the channel has been providing support for the pair over the past few weeks.


Bullish recovery was manifested on the H4 chart. A bullish breakout above the upper limit of the short-term flag pattern took place. A bearish pullback for retesting is being expressed today.


The key-support level for today is the price level of 1.5120 (backside of the upper limit of the H4 Flag pattern). That is why daily closure should be considered today.


Trading outside the H4 flag pattern (above 1.5120) enhances bullish side of the market at least towards 1.5260.


Trading recommendations:


The price zone of 1.5280-1.5350 (50% - 61.8% Fibonacci Levels and the upper limit of the daily channel) should be watched for new SELL entries with SL located slightly above 1.5400.


A short-term LONG position may be considered if the current daily candlestick closes as engulfing one. TP should be located slightly below 1.5300.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 29, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the renewed decline in oil prices, the flows to the safe haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 16.03% to 19.98, S&P 500 closed 1.35% lower at 2,002.16 overnight) on growing market turmoil in Greece as its new government pushed for debt renegotiation with international creditors. USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan's exports, the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.724% versus 1.825% late Tuesday) as the Federal Reserve reiterated its pledge to remain "patient" in deciding when to raise interest rates while boosting its assessment of the economy and labor market in its latest policy statement. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.63 versus 93.96 early Wednesday) after the FOMC meeting, demand from the Japanese importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as the MACD is bearish, stochastics is turning bearish.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.50 and the second target at 118.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short position is recommended with the first target at 117.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.80. The pivot point is at 117.55.


Resistance levels:

118.50

118.85

119.35

Support levels:

17.20

116.80

116.50


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 29, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.63 versus 93.96 early Wednesday), the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross, the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the SNB CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is in bullish mode, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9265 and the second target at 0.9365. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8985. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.8925. The pivot point is at 0.9050.


Resistance levels:

0.9265

0.9365

0.9415


Support levels:

0.8985

0.8925

0.89


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 29, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/USD pair has bounced off up to 300 pips after hitting lows at the levels of 1.2200 early this week. The pair pulled back into the levels of 1.1260 today, before rallying higher through the handle at 1.1340. Immediate support is seen at 1.2220 levels, followed by 1.1100 and resistance is seen at 1.1420 (interim) followed by the level of 1.1620 and higher, respectively. It is recommended to initiate long positions now with risk below at 1.1100 and a minimum upside potential through 1.1620/50. It is too early to predict a reversal but a potential inverted head and shoulder reversal is shaping up on hourly charts. A break of 1.1650 levels would confirm a trend reversal (a large pullback rally) on the 4H chart as well.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions now at 1.1340/50, stop at 1.11 and target at 1.1650.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 29, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by the negative EUR sentiment as uncertainty mounts over the plans of Greece's new government to renegotiate the country's debt with international creditors. The pair is also weakened by flows to the safe haven yen amid increased risk aversion and Japan's exports. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, the MACD bearish, 5- & 15-day moving averages are falling but stochastics bullish is at oversold levels.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1179.45 and the second target at 180.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 177.15. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 176.45. The pivot point is at 177.85.


Resistance levels:

179.45

180.15

180.90


Support levels:

177.15

176.45

175.75


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