The dollar may lose the status of "safe haven"

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According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) experts, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc may be preferable to the dollar if next year the United States gets involved in a trade war with Europe.

According to experts, in the current year, the dollar has proved itself better than other currencies in the face of worsening sentiment in financial markets.

"Over the past few months, investors have chosen the dollar as a defensive asset because of growing tensions in trade relations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom. If the parties succeed in settling controversial issues, then the trade opposition between America and Europe may come to the fore, against which the dollar will look less advantageous than the yen and the franc," the BofAML representatives said.

They believe that in the future, the US currency may weaken, despite the positive outlook for US GDP growth in 2019 and a further increase in the Fed's interest rates, because after the recent mid-term elections, the country risks falling into political deadlock.

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Oil returned to growth after 12 days of fall

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On Thursday, November 15, oil prices were able to break the downtrend in the market. According to experts, it was the longest collapse in the history of trading. The cost of a barrel of WTI oil blend increased for the first time in 12 sessions.

During yesterday's trading, market participants tried to play a sharp collapse of quotations, recorded on Tuesday, November 13. On Wednesday, quotes rose by 3%, but by the end of the trading session, their growth rates had decreased. The current negative trend was interrupted, analysts emphasize.

After the publication of data on US oil reserves, the rise in quotations stopped. It turned out that over the past week, commercial reserves of black gold in the country grew by almost 9 million barrels. This figure is the highest since February 2018, experts say.

The reason for the rise in oil prices experts say statements from OPEC, which plans to reduce production, to prevent an excess of supply of raw materials on the market. Analysts pay attention to another indicator, the cost of oil in gold. Currently, you can buy about 22 barrels of oil for 1 ounce of yellow metal. According to experts, this indicator returned to the level of the beginning of the year.

For the past five weeks, the black gold market has been feverish, and oil quotes have hit nearly $ 20. In this regard, experts conclude that the attempt of Russia and OPEC, aimed at increasing oil production, was not crowned with success. Previously, experts warned that a return to the policy of building capacity will lead to a collapse in the market.

Next year, a number of oil-producing countries are again planning to cut production by 1.4 million barrels per day. Experts believe that OPEC is losing ground against the background of shale oil growth in the United States. America continues to increase volumes regardless of price fluctuations in the market. According to analysts, the volume of recoverable black gold has reached records and are approximately at the same level as the Russian Federation. At the same time, the United States is in a better position than other countries, since it is not too dependent on oil prices.

Experts of the largest bank JP Morgan predict a further decline in the cost of oil. They pay attention to the technical progress of the American shale. "In the long term, due to oversupply, oil prices will fall. The technical progress of US shale companies is impressive. They need fewer resources to extract as much raw material as possible." The situation is complicated by tightening the monetary policy of the Fed, experts say. As a result, there is a revaluation of the value of assets, taking into account the availability of liquidity and cash.

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The pound and the euro rising against the dollar but the British parliament can reverse the trend

Today, the dollar is losing against the pound and the euro, which rose immediately after British Prime Minister Theresa May received Cabinet approval for the implementation of her Brexit project. However, the growth of European currencies was limited by concerns about whether this project will receive parliamentary approval. If the parliamentarians refuse to accept the project, the pound and the euro will unfold and begin to lose against the dollar.

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Prime Minister Theresa May received support from her ministers in connection with the "divorce" with the European Union the day before, pushing the euro and the pound by 0.8% and 1.2% against the dollar, respectively, against their lows reached on Monday.

The "divorce" project with the European Union, which was submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers on Tuesday, will enable the United Kingdom to leave the EU with an agreement that will avoid the "heavy Brexit". However, the EU's main Brexit negotiator, Michelle Barnier, warned that the path to ensuring a smooth exit for Britain is still long and potentially difficult.

The dollar index, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the currency against the six major world currencies, rose slightly from morning to 96.87 but remained below its 16-month high reached this Monday.

Despite several attempts by the pound and the euro to rise today, analysts still see strong support for the dollar amid broader concerns about Brexit and global trading stresses.

To date, the pound has gained 0.06 % against the US dollar, breaking the level of 1.3002.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 15. The pound collapsed due to the risk that lawmakers reject a Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers quickly left the market after a bad report on UK retail sales was released, and then the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, added fuel to the fire when he said he was retiring. The volatility of the pound will continue to remain quite high, and little depends on the technical picture. Any news on Brexit will lead to sharp pound movements to either side, depending on the content. In the event of a decline in GBP/USD pair, it is best to take a closer look at purchases after updating the next low of 1.2703. The task of buyers for the second half of the day will be to breakthrough and consolidate above the resistance levels of 1.2825 and 1.2883, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears need to keep below the resistance of 1.2825, which will lead to a resale to the support area of 1.2764 and its breakdown will only increase the pressure on the British pound. Any negative news on Brexit will push the pound even lower in the 1.2703 and 1.2663 area. In the case of an upward correction, you can take a closer look at short positions on the rebound from the maximum of 1.2883 and 1.2962.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates a change in market sentiment.

Bollinger bands

The upward correction will be limited to the middle of the indicator in the area of 1.2950.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 15, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Last week, signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around the price zone of 1.3170-1.3200 (the depicted downtrend).

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted demand-zone of (1.2850-1.2780) where early signs of bullish rejection were recently demonstrated.

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2980 (key-level for the short-term scenario). That's why, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2780.

Bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2850-1.2780 (demand-zone) is needed to prevent further bearish decline and to allow another bullish movement to occur towards 1.2980.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.2780 allows further bearish decline towards 1.2700 and 1.2670.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 15. The euro fell after the pound and weak data for the euro area

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers failed to get above the resistance of 1.1344, which was combined with the weak balance data and caused the euro to fall, which I paid attention to it in the morning forecast. As a result of the decline, the bulls returned only to the market in the support area of 1.1266 to which I also paid attention. A breakthrough with consolidation above the resistance of 1.1307 in the second half of the day will allow us to get to the upper boundary of the side channel at 1.1344, where today I recommend fixing the profit.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears worked out the morning scenario, however, the main task for the second half of the day remains the breakdown of support 1.1266. This will happen only if good fundamental statistics on retail sales in the USA is released, which will strengthen the position of the US dollar and lead to a test of this week's lows in the 1.1226 area, where I recommend taking profits. If EUR / USD rises in the second half of the day above resistance 1.1307, short positions can be returned to rebound from the upper limit of the side channel 1.1344.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The upward correction for the euro is still limited to the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.1345 but a repeated test of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1288 may lead to an increase in pressure on the euro.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for November 15, 2018

On Wednesday, the price moves in the side channel retested the rollback level of 61.8% at 1.3042 (blue dashed line) but again could not stay above. On Thursday, strong calendar news comes out at 8.30, 12.30 and 3.30 London time. Most likely, the bulls will once again try to resume the upward movement.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price will move upward with the first goal of the sliding level of 61.8% at1.3042 (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price will move upward with the first goal of the sliding level of 61.8% at1.3042 (blue dashed line). When you break through the level, the upward movement continues.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for November 15, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday it is possible to continue the upward movement with the first goal of the recoil level of 23.6% at 1.1360 (blue dashed line). The second upper target is 1.1388 at the 21 average EMA (black thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday it is possible to continue the upward movement with the first goal of the recoil level of 23.6% at 1.1360 (blue dashed line). The second upper target is 1.1388 at the 21 average EMA (black thin line).

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OPEC's response to the oil market swing is unpredictable - experts

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According to some experts, the meeting of the OPEC countries, scheduled for December 6, 2018, may be held ahead of schedule. In any case, analysts are confident that this day will be the most important for all participants in the oil market.

Early next month, cartel members planned to get together to discuss the issue of suspending the longest oil sale in history. However, the current situation associated with the global collapse of oil prices may make adjustments to the plans of the organization. At the moment, calls are increasingly heard to reduce the production of black gold, and the cartel may hold an emergency meeting until December 6.

Dominick Chirichella, an experienced strategist at energy markets, who has been watching OPEC for about 35 years, noted that the cartel had previously used certain tricks to overcome the crisis that you can approve or reject at the upcoming meeting."

According to D. Chirichella, an impressive rally of quotations and a drop in oil prices in the market occurred after the statement of the Saudi authorities about the need to reduce the export of black gold by 1 million barrels per day. Later, on Tuesday, November 13, the cartel provided a monthly overview of the market, where the bearish trend was clearly visible. The agency reduced its forecast for oil demand growth in 2018, focusing on slowing raw material consumption in the Middle East and China. At the same time, the organization reported on a growing proposal coming from other states. The market responded to these statements with a 7% collapse, experts say.

Most analysts come to the conclusion that the collapse of oil prices on Tuesday was caused not only by the OPEC report but also by the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Recall, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the organization, appealed to American oil producers with an appeal to further increase the already record level of production. Experts believe that such statements by the IEA are explained by the support of Western oil importers.

Another factor capable of provoking a collapse, experts consider the use of algorithmic trading models that sell or buy on the basis of established targets, ignoring fundamental market factors. In this situation, experts are concerned about the question, will the value of black gold fall below $ 50? They find it difficult to answer what has become a real catalyst for sales of oil prices.

Currently, global oil prices are almost 30% lower than the four-year highs reached in early October of this year. WTI oil is trading within the annual minimum of $ 55 per barrel against a maximum of $ 77 recorded six weeks ago. Quotes of Brent North Sea oil were at an eight-month low near the level of $ 65, although a month and a half ago the price reached $ 87.

Sale of oil prices resumed on Wednesday. This was the longest "bearish" phase of the market in history, experts emphasize. According to Adam Sarkhan, strategist at 50 Park Investments, WTI oil has a real chance to be below $ 50. He drew attention to the prevalence of a pronounced "bearish" trend in the market. Experts find it difficult to answer how OPEC will react to the current situation and whether the cartel will wait for the scheduled meeting. Analysts do not exclude the possibility of an emergency collection organization.

Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group is sure of this. He believes that OPEC members need to have an emergency meeting to try to balance the market. John Kilduff of the Again Capital Capital hedge fund agrees with this statement: "Emergency measures cannot be ruled out, especially if oil drops below $ 50 over the next two days, which will cause great damage to the market."

Previously, cartel members had already held emergency meetings to influence the market, but this rarely happened. In its actions, OPEC has always been cautious. According to experts, since three weeks are left before the scheduled meeting, the organization of an early summit will be difficult. According to J. Kilduff, the members of the cartel may declare that the upcoming limitation of oil production will be stronger than expected, up to 2 million barrels per day.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 15. British pound tends to grow, but news can prevent

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 14 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair gained about 20 basis points, but during the day, there was a very high market activity. The current wave counting assumes the continuation of the pair growth within the framework of wave 3, c, with minimal targets, located around 32 figures. But, as before, the news background can greatly affect the wave counting. If you begin to receive negative news on Brexit, it can return interest to the dollar and complicate the downward trend section and the entire wave marking.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3092 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

1.3174 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2826 - 0.0% of Fibonacci (formal goal)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD remains in the process of building an upward set of waves. Now, I expect to continue building a wave with targets that are near the estimated levels of 1.3092 and 1.3174, which corresponds to 76.4% and 100.0% of the Fibonacci. As before, I recommend you closely follow the news from the UK, as they can drastically change the mood of the market and, accordingly, the wave picture.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 15. The pair is ready for growth, but there is no corresponding news background.

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Wednesday, the EUR / USD currency pair gained only about 20 basis points, however, there are still reasons to assume that the wave 5 of the downtrend trend is completed. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will continue as part of the first wave of a new uptrend, at least 3-wave. At the same time, there remains a small probability that wave 5 will become more complicated and will take on a 5-wave view, but for this, the tool will need serious fundamental reasons, for example, negative information on Brexit.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1179 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.1103 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1499 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair allegedly completed the construction of the downward trend. Thus, now I recommend buying the pair in small volumes with targets located around 15 figures, but always with protective orders, as the probability of wave 5 remains complicated. The news background will be of great importance in the coming days and even weeks, the whole wave 5 can become complicated.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of AUD / USD pair for the week of November 15

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The wave is at the end of the main downtrend of the daily scale, which began in January and is still unfinished.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

From October 5, a wave with no reversal potential began to form on the chart upwards. In a larger design, it will become a correction. The first parts (A-B) are completed in the movement structure.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The bullish movement began to develop from November 13th. In the hourly wave, it gave rise to the final part (C). After reaching the target zone with a high probability will be rolled back down.

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Recommended trading strategy:

A movement against the main trend is being formed on the market, which would more be a correct to miss. Short-term purchases are possible as part of the intraday but it is more reasonable to reduce the lot.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7340 / 0.7390

Support areas:

- 0.7200 / 0.7150

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A-B-C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 15, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, Temporary bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.1300. Hence, another bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1499 (the upper limit of the supply zone) where another descending high was established.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should continue trading below the price zone of 1.1300-1.1275. Initial bearish target would located around 1.1100.

Bearish persistence below 1.1275 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.1100.

However, failure to fixate below 1.1275 would enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.1400 again. Thus, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400).

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Pound is under pressure again: Raab's resignation and criticism of the British press

Political events set the agenda for the GBP/USD pair and the pound will continue to be dominated by newspaper headlines, high-profile announcements, and personnel appointments. All other fundamental factors will remain in the shadows.

British politicians took an important step yesterday towards an orderly Brexit. Members of the government were able to agree on a draft of the future deal in contrary to all doubts, a flurry of criticism and "habitual" pessimism.

The European side also expressed optimism. The parties were able to work out a mechanism by which there will not be a hard border in Ireland, according to Michel Barnier. However, Northern Ireland will obey the same customs rules as the rest of the Kingdom -with only a few exceptions (in some cases, EU rules will apply).

As for the backstop (the preservation of Northern Ireland in the single European market for the sake of a "transparent" border between Ireland), then, according to Barnier, this mechanism will be applied only at the end of the transition period (which was extended to 21 months). Moreover, the backstop is rather a "Plan B", if during this time the parties do not find a more optimal solution.

As for the backstop of the preservation of Northern Ireland in the single European market for the sake of a "transparent" border between Ireland, this mechanism will be applied only at the end of the transition period (which was extended to 21 months), according to Barnier.

The pound, together with the dollar, reacted to yesterday's events and a spike in the price led the pair to the level of 1.3070, but not for long. After a few tens of minutes, the British currency returned to the 29th figure. Today, the pound has collapsed again which is already to the borders of the 27th figure. So the traders reacted to the unexpected resignation of Dominic Raab, the main negotiator from the UK, who explained that he would no longer support the EU proposal for an indefinite period of validity of the above-mentioned backstop mechanism.

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In general, the approval of the deal by the British ministers and Theresa May's confident speech at the end of the government meeting failed to convince traders that the orderly Brexit would become a reality. The prime minister has yet to go through the millstone of parliament and as she herself admits, this will not be an easy walk. Indeed, many in Britain consider the approved agreement, not a victory but a defeat for London. Some British newspapers came out with similar headlines today and many parliamentarians hold the same opinion.

Their arguments sound right. According to them, the country will not de facto leave the European Union in March next year. After all, for almost two subsequent years (that is, a transitional period), Misty Albion will have to adhere to all EU rules without the right to challenge them. In addition, London will have to pay appropriate contributions to the budget of the Alliance, as well as not hinder the movement of "labor migrants". In other words, the "real Brexit" will take place only 21 months after the country's legal withdrawal from the EU. Moreover, the 21-month transition period can be extended and, in the opinion of some politicians will most likely be extended since the parties will not be able to solve the puzzle of future relations, especially in the context of the Irish border.

All in all, the British press was not enthusiastic about yesterday's events. Journalists relayed the views of many experts, politicians, and economists. According to the general opinion, London agreed to unfavorable conditions for Britain and the country will become a "vassal" of the EU in the next two years. Not everyone blames Theresa May for this, although some say that she chose a deliberately failed negotiation tactic. Unequal conditions in the negotiation process and politicians' illusions about "light and unhindered Brexit." but most experts still talk about deeper reasons. In addition, decades of close ties between London and Brussels have made themselves felt in both economic and legal.

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Against the background of such criticism, a legitimate question arose - is there any prospect for Theresa May in parliament? Despite all the above, there is a chance for approval of the deputies of the Lower House are, although they are very slim. The fact is that with all the shortcomings approved by the ministers of the transaction, the only alternative is the chaotic Brexit. For a long time, May repeated the mantra that "the absence of a deal is better than a bad deal." Now she uses this phrase in a mirror image, claiming that Brexit without a deal will plunge the country into economic chaos.

This argument can play a key role in the parliamentary discussion of the presented agreement. By and large, if the deputies vote against the proposed deal, they will vote for the chaotic exit of the country from the EU with all the ensuing consequences. There is another option of a repeated referendum, however, according to the overwhelming majority of analysts, it is extremely unlikely.

Thus, despite the complexity of the contractual design, the Lower House of Parliament will face a simple and uncomplicated choice either they support the "bad deal" or they will take responsibility for the chaotic Brexit. Considering the above, a disappointing conclusion can be made. The pound will continue to be dominated by newspaper headlines, high-profile statements, and personnel appointments. All other fundamental factors will remain in the shadows.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 15, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.2750. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a hidden bearish divergence in the background on the MACD oscillator, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found the potential end of the upward correction in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2697.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 15, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1306. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a breakout of the bearish flag pattern, which is a sign that sellers are in control. The short-term trend is bearish and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1213 and at the price of 1.1070.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 15, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7185. This week, the pair rose from the level of 0.7185 to a top around 0.7299. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7299 followed by 0.7352, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7185 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7352; so we expect a range of 102 pips.

Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7299, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7299) to test it.

Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7299 with the first target at 0.7352 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7069 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 15, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.9951.

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 15, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found strong sell-off on the BTC. As I warned you yesterday, BTC was ready to drop and that's what exactly happened. BTC tested the level of $5.288. Strong momentum is present and my advice is still to watch for selling opportunities. I have found 20-hour balance between the price of $5.690 (resistance) and the price of $5.288 (support). Watch for a breakout of the support to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of $4.895.

Support/Resistance

$5.690 – Intraday resistance

$5.288– Intraday support

$4.895 – Objective target 1

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Brexit: The Cabinet approved a plan for Brexit. Why is the question of the border with Ireland so important?

It became known that the Cabinet of Ministers of Great Britain was supported by the plan submitted by Prime Minister Theresa May to withdraw from the European Union. This will allow to count on the fact that the situation on Brexit will be resolved before the expiration of the time when the UK will officially leave the EU.

Such news, of course, supported the British pound, which returned to the area of weekly highs paired with the US dollar. However, as I noted in recent forecasts, the main problem for the British Prime Minister remains the approval of this agreement in parliament, where there are very many opponents of not even the agreement itself, but Brexit.

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Theresa May said yesterday that the cabinet had a lengthy and detailed discussion of the draft Brexit agreement and ultimately approved the draft agreement. In her opinion, the agreement reached during the negotiations is the best scenario for the UK to leave the EU. May also said that the draft agreement will be submitted to the parliament today.

It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that even before the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, the British Prime Minister had already started having problems, although the Cabinet belongs to her party. The small Northern Ireland party, which, by the way, provides May with a majority in parliament, completely rejected its draft agreement. The representative of this party, Jeffrey Donaldson, said that the current plan undermines the constitutional and economic foundations of Great Britain. Even some Euroskeptics from the Conservative Party rejected the deal. Jacob Rees-Mogg stated that the plan was incapable of providing Brexit. However, as we already know, the cabinet still approved the current exit scenario from the EU.

There is much talk about the problem of reaching an agreement on Brexit, and the main reason experts point out the Irish border, on the issue of which it was difficult to reach a consensus. So what is it about it that took so much time to solve this problem?

It should be recalled that the sharp conflict over the status of Northern Ireland as a province of Great Britain was extinguished in the late 1990s. The agreement stipulated the elimination of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which allowed EU members to trade goods and services without restriction with each other. Now, when the UK leaves the EU, Brexit will change the principles of trade between the EU and the UK, which will again restore the border, which could turn into a conflict in Ireland.

As for the technical picture of GBP / USD, a breakthrough of resistance at 1.3040 will be a good prerequisite for the continuation of the strengthening of the trading instrument to the highs of 1.3100 and 1.3170. The main driver of growth for the pound in the first half of the day can serve as a report on the volume of retail sales in the UK. In the case of a pair decline, the bulls will return to the market on the test of support 1.2960 and slightly lower, from the minimum of 1.2890.

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EUR: The growth potential of the European currency has declined. The Fed may raise rates at any time.

The European currency continues to attempt to strengthen in tandem with the US dollar. Yesterday's data on inflation in the United States did not lead to significant changes in the market, as they coincided with the forecasts of economists.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, CPI in October of this year rose 0.3% from the previous month. Core inflation, which does not take into account the volatile categories of food and energy, rose 0.2%. The data completely coincided with the forecasts of economists. Compared with the previous year, the CPI index in October rose by 2.5%, while the base CPI increased by 2.1%.

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During his speech yesterday, the Fed chairman said that inflation rates correspond to the target level of the Fed and there is a reason to believe that the situation in the economy will continue to evolve according to a positive scenario.

Powell also noted that market participants should be prepared to raise the Fed's rates at any meeting, as he is very pleased with the state of the US economy. A gradual increase in interest rates is necessary in order to balance the risks.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the upward potential remains as long as the trade is conducted above the support level of 1.1300. The breakthrough of resistance in the area of 1.1350 will cause a new upward wave in the trading instrument, with the highs of 1.1380 and 1.1410 being updated, which will lead to the final reversal of the past downtrend that is now under threat.

Data on the volume of retail trade in the United States, which will be published in the afternoon, can support the US dollar. The inability of buyers of risky assets to get out beyond the resistance of 1.1350 in the first half of the day, paired with US data, can play a cruel joke for the European currency, which will return EUR / USD to the 1.1270 and 1.1230 lows.

The Australian dollar strengthened its position against the US dollar today after the release of a report indicating a good state of the Australian labor market, which shows good activity against the expectations of economists.

According to the Ministry of Labor, unemployment in Australia in October of this year remained at its minimum in the region of 5.0%, and the number of full-time jobs increased immediately to 42,300. Economists had expected an increase in unemployment to 5.3%.

It should be noted that a good growth in the labor market only confirms the correct approach of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. I recall that Philip Lowe is a supporter of low-interest rates, which are now at the level of 1.5% and are unlikely to be changed in the near future. At the same time, a good growth in the employment market may in the future lead to the acceleration of inflation, which will still force the RBA to reconsider its approach to monetary policy.

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Trading Plan for 11/15/2018

Something unbelievable happened to the pound yesterday, and the reason lies solely in the statements regarding Brexit. At first, the pound continued to grow amid expectations of signing an agreement between the UK and the European Union, which the cabinet did. Then it rushed down as due to inflation data, which showed its invariance instead of growth, and thanks to the statements of a number of parliamentarians. The fact is that even though the government signed the agreement, it will enter into force only after its adoption by parliament. There can be difficulties, since Theresa May, in fact, relies on a minority of parliamentarians. The majority is extremely hostile towards the Prime Minister, since, in their opinion, the agreement contradicts the interests of Great Britain. In general, they say, Theresa May is cursing in front of Europe and making concessions, instead of demanding that an agreement is drafted, which primarily meets the economic interests of Great Britain. Well, what to do if many still experience phantom pains due to the loss of the empire. So, these same parliamentarians said that today they will submit a question of a vote of no confidence to the Prime Minister. So, we can expect an incredible show, and, instead of a vote on the agreement, everything can turn into a government resignation and the announcement of the date of early elections. However, at the end of the day, the pound completely won back all the losses, because it is not clear how everything will turn out, and a number of other parliamentarians, who are also hostile to Theresa May, nevertheless declared that the worst development should be avoided.

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It is worth noting that the single European currency reacted extremely positively to the signing of an agreement between the UK and the European Union, although the second estimate of GDP for the third quarter confirmed a slowdown in economic growth from 2.2% to 1.7%. Yes, and the growth rate of industrial production remained unchanged. However, the apparent uncertainty in the United Kingdom scares many. The current text of the agreement is rather in the interests of the European Union, and if the British parliament does not accept it and the "divorce" takes place without an agreement, then Europe will even more likely benefit from it even more. Against this background, data on inflation in the United States almost imperceptibly passed, showing its growth from 2.3% to 2.5%, which removes any doubts about the rate of increase in the refinancing rate by the Federal Reserve System.

Although the main events will unfold in the British Parliament, it is worth paying attention to data on retail sales in the UK and the United States. In the first case, their growth rates should remain unchanged, while in the second, a slight slowdown is expected. But what happens today in the UK is simply unpredictable, and completely different options are possible.

The pound / dollar currency pairs showed high volatility on the information and news background, where the amplitude relative to the 1.3000 / 1.3050 range is more than 150 points, ultimately remaining within this level. Probably assume a temporary stay in this range, until the next burst from the information background.

The euro/dollar currency pair, like its fellow pound / dollar, was exposed to the information background, as a result of overcoming the level of 1.1300 in the upward direction. Now, the quotation is already at 1.1340, where there is an attempt to slow down, but the ambiguity of Brexit, after all, worries investors, and you can expect everything.

The general recommendation on two currency pairs is to take a waiting position and watch what is happening from the outside. There is a risk of a pulse stroke both up and down.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for November 15, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impressive with the recent non-volatile and impulsive bullish pressure which led the price higher toward 82.00 with a daily close. The positive reports on Australia's labor market helped the currency to gain momentum over JPY which has been struggling due to lackluster economic data.

AUD has showing predictable dynamic amid better-than-expected data which lead to certain gains on the AUD side. Today Australia's Employment Change report was published with a significant increase to 32.8k from the previous figure of 7.8k which was expected to be at 19.9k and Unemployment Report was unchanged at 5.0% which was expected to increase to 5.1%. Moreover, RBA Assistant Governor Debelle expanded on the housing lending issue when he spoke about the repayment problems of borrowers. So, he suggested certain policies to reduce future shocks due to lending and monetary policy issues.

On the JPY side, recently Prelim GDP report was published with a decrease to -0.3% as expected from the previous value of 0.7% and Prelim GDP Price Index also fell to -0.3% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at -0.1%. On the back of finance sector issues, JPY is expected to struggle further until decent economic data is released in Japan.

Meanwhile, AUD is expected to continue dominating JPY further in the coming days amid the fundamental strength, while JPY is struggling to maintain the momentum. Until Japan comes up with better economic data, Australia's positive employment reports provides AUD with solid support in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 82.00 area with a daily close while having certain retracements along the way. As per current price action context, the price is expected to push higher towards 83.50 area in the coming days. As the price remains above 80.50 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 80.50, 82.00

RESISTANCE: 83.50, 85.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and NON-VOLATILE

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GBP / USD. 15th of November. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The Cabinet of Ministers accepted the terms of Theresa

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 53.0811

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, November 15, resumed its upward movement after a "storm" environment. During the past day, the pair was thrown from side to side, and the volatility was very high. We wrote about this version of the development of the event the day before. Now for the pound, the decisive days are coming when, in any case, there will be information from the British Parliament about the consideration of the bill of Theresa May on the conditions of Brexit, first by the Cabinet and then by the Parliament. The first news, unofficial, is that the Cabinet of Ministers tentatively adopted Theresa May's plan, but after a very long debate. The ministers accepted May's position and agreed that either the country would leave the EU on the conditions proposed by the prime minister, or there would be no "deal" at all. At the same time, it is noted that a sufficiently large number of politicians were against the conditions proposed by May. There are still rumors that Ms. May may be dismissed, for this you need the signatures of 48 members of the Conservative Party. Now, the ministers will have to decide on the final version of the document, and after that, the parliament will vote. However, this event may take place in December. In general, despite the fact that there is some progress in this matter, the whole process continues to drag on.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3000

S2 - 1.2939

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has fixed above the MA, thus, long positions with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3123 are now relevant. Today, it is recommended to pay attention to the publication of reports on retail sales in the UK and the States.

Sell positions can again be considered after reversing the pair below the moving average line. This is a very likely scenario, as the positions of the pound sterling remain very unstable.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 15, 2018

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The downtrend from the 1.7929 peak continues to push lower towards support at 1.6555 and possibly even closer to support at 1.6515, but once we enter the support-zone between 1.6515 - 1.6555 the potential downside should be limited.

That said, it will take a break above minor resistance at 1.6706 to indicate that a low finally is in place and a corrective rally towards at least 1.7085 is developing.

R3: 1.6789

R2: 1.6730

R1: 1.6706

Pivot: 1.6688

S1: 1.6600

S2: 1.6555

S2: 1.6515

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6525 or upon a break above 1.6706.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 15, 2018

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We are looking for a break below minor support at 128.16 as confirmation that wave 2 has completed and wave 3 lower towards 124.98 is developing.

Resistance is now seen at 128.68 and important resistance is seen at 129.23, this resistance should be able to cap the upside for the expected break below 128.16 confirming renewed downside pressure.

R3: 129.23

R2: 128.64

R1: 128.42

Pivot: 128.16

S1: 128.03

S2: 127.82

S3: 127.56

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 128.75 with our stop placed at 129.75. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 128.16 and place you stop at 129.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 15th of November. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The euro is growing due to the fixation of short

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 47.9592

The currency pair EUR / USD on Thursday, November 15, continues the corrective movement and can overcome the moving average line, which will mean a change of trend to ascending. Yesterday's macroeconomic reports cannot be said to have been unequivocally in favor of the euro currency. For example, US inflation showed an acceleration of up to 2.5% in October. A preliminary value of GDP in the eurozone for the third quarter was 1.7%, which is fully consistent with the forecast. Thus, it can be noted that the fundamental background was neutral. Thus, we believe that the pair is now being adjusted due to a technical factor, as well as on expectations of reaching an agreement between the EU and the UK on Brexit. By the way, it should also be noted that the euro is growing at a much lower rate than the pound sterling. This once again shows that achieving the "deal" on Brexit is of greater importance for Britain, and not for the European Union. Growth factors, except for technical, in the euro currency, now by and large do not. Problems with the budget of Italy also put some pressure on the single currency. Today in the United States, report on retail sales will be published, however, compared with the topic Brexit, it will be much less important and can be ignored by market participants. Also today in the United States, to address Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to be adjusted. Thus, to open sell orders with a target of 1.1230, it is recommended to wait for the Heikin Ashi indicator to turn down when the price is below the moving average.

Buy positions will become relevant in small lots if the pair is fixed above the moving average with the target of 1.1414. However, the pair's upward momentum may be short-term, as there is no fundamental support for the euro.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 15. Euro shows signs of readiness for recovery

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair consolidated above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303 after the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. As a result, the growth process can be continued on November 15 in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.1423. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Fixing quotes under the correction level of 100.0% will work in favor of the American currency and resuming the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1162.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair also made a U-turn in favor of the euro currency and a close above the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Thus, traders can expect an increase in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% again allows us to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of decline in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 100.0%, since the pair completed the closing above the level of 1.1303.

Selling of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1303.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro and sterling have no reason for strong growth

The optimistic statements by the Prime Minister of Great Britain T. May, that an agreement could be reached on the country's withdrawal from the EU, once again inspired the markets and pushed up the rates of sterling and the single currency, which in recent days have significantly sagged against the US dollar.

The Brexit theme as a broken old record reminds of itself from time to time, inspiring investors, and, conversely, plunging them into pessimism. This week, she again reminded herself that supposedly, a definitive agreement could already be reached on the conditions of the transitional period and further relations between Britain and continental Europe represented by the EU. This news has pushed up the sterling rate and for the company, the single European currency.

But, despite this, it seems to us, this growth was more associated with the local weakening of the dollar, which they began to sell, taking profits, using the news as a pretext. The British currency has grown, pulling up and the euro.

The question arises, will the upward trend of both the euro and sterling continue? We have big doubts about this. Recent economic statistics indicate that the economies of Britain and the eurozone are slowing down, as is the slowdown in inflation. The main reason is still the situation around the dollar. It is being bought and sold against major currencies, in response to the Fed's desire to continue to follow the path of higher interest rates, domestic political events in the States and its function of currency shelter. In addition, using traditional logic, investors believe that in countries whose currencies are major and are trading on Forex against the dollar, they will eventually start raising interest rates, which will make investments in assets denominated in these currencies profitable.

Yes, of course, the logic is clear, but now the picture is not quite ordinary. It seems that at the end of the 10-year economic cycle of the Central Bank of these countries will face a wide problem, weakening economic growth, slowing inflationary pressure and, as a result, missed opportunities to prepare for a new crisis with higher interest rates. So far, the Americans have only succeeded. It should also be borne in mind that, unlike other world central banks, the Fed is persistently implementing its plans to raise interest rates. It is expected that at the end of December, they will be raised again, which will undoubtedly support the rate of the American currency.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above the level of 1.1300. It may still grow to 1.1360, but if the data on consumer inflation in the US turns out to be strong and the price cannot overcome this mark, the pair may turn around and rush to 1.1300, and then to 1.1220.

The currency pair GBP / USD is trading below the level of 1.3035. A similar picture will be in this pair. Against the background of probably strong data from the US, the pair may fall to 1.2840.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for November 15. The pound, by all means, seeks to grow

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair rebounded from the correction level of 38.2% - 1.2925, and then from the level of 61.8% - 1.3066. However, on November 15, the growth process continues towards the correctional level of 61.8%. There are no emerging divergences today. Another rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8% will again work in favor of the American currency and some fall in the direction of the correction level of 38.2%. Fixing the rate above the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the likelihood of a further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.3157.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and October 30, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair rebounded from the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.3061 with the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator, but under the Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.2992 could not close. Thus, now the process of returning quotes to a correction level of 23.6% has begun. Fixing the pair quotations below the Fibo level of 38.2% or rebound from the level of 23.6% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2935.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.3061 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 38.2%, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.2992 (hourly chart).

Selling of the GBP / USD currency pair will be possible with a target of 1.2935 and a Stop Loss order above the 61.8% level if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.2992 (hourly chart).

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 15

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we continue to monitor the upward structure of November 12 and we expect a further upward movement after the breakdown of 1.1324. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the price forms the initial conditions for the top of November 12 and we expect a further uptrend after the breakdown of 1.3061. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price issued potential for a downward movement of November 13. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the situation is in equilibrium. For the currency pair of Euro / Yen, the price forms the potential for the top of November 13 and the range of 129.00 - 129.17 is the key resistance for the top. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we are watching the formation of a potential for the top on November 13 and we expect a further uptrend after the breakdown of 148.74.

Forecast for November 15:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1403, 1.1375, 1.1353, 1.1322, 1.1293, 1.1273 and 1.1243. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of November 12. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1322. In this case, the target is 1.1353 and in the range of 1.1353 - 1.1375 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1403, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1293 - 1.1273 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1243 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to continue the downward trend. In this case, the first goal is 1.1212.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1322 Take profit: 1.1350

Buy 1.1355 Take profit: 1.1375

Sell: 1.1293 Take profit: 1.1275

Sell: 1.1270 Take profit: 1.1248

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3273, 1.3215, 1.3130, 1.3061, 1.2966, 1.2928 and 1.2878. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of November 12. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3061. In this case, the target is 1.3130 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3130 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.3215. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3273, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2966 - 1.2928 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.2878 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. The breakdown will have to follow the downward movement. In this case, the first goal is 1.2824.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the top of November 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3061 Take profit: 1.3126

Buy: 1.3133 Take profit: 1.3215

Sell: 1.2966 Take profit: 1.2930

Sell: 1.2926 Take profit: 1.2880

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0186, 1.0150, 1.0134, 1.0111, 1.0088, 1.0043, 1.0031, 1.0003, 0.9985 and 0.9959. Here, the price took the potential for a downward movement of November 13th. We continue the development of the downward structure after the price passes the range of 1.0043 - 1.0031. In this case, the target is 1.0003 and in the range of 1.0003 - 0.9985 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.9959, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.0088 - 1.0111 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.0134 and in the range of 1.0134 - 1.0150 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0186, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The main trend is the upward cycle of November 7, the formation of the potential for the bottom of November 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0088 Take profit: 1.0110

Buy: 1.0113 Take profit: 1.0132

Sell: 1.0030 Take profit: 1.0005

Sell: 1.0001 Take profit: 0.9987

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 115.01, 114.48, 114.21, 113.77, 113.46 and 112.99. Here, the situation is in an equilibrium state and to continue moving up, it is necessary to create a local structure. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 114.21 - 114.48 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 115.01, after reaching which we expect a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 113.77 - 113.46 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 112.99, up to this level, we expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend: the ascending cycle of October 26, the correction zone.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 114.21 Take profit: 114.46

Buy: 114.50 Take profit: 115.00

Sell: 113.75 Take profit: 113.50

Sell: 113.44 Take profit: 113.15

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3363, 1.3314, 1.3279, 1.3215, 1.3190 and 1.3151. At the moment, we expect to move to the level of 1.3279 and the breakdown of which will lead to a short-term uptrend to the level of 1.3314. In this range is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3363, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3215 - 1.3190, hence a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 1.3190 will lead to a prolonged correction. In this case, the target is 1.3151.

The main trend is the local rising structure of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3280 Take profit: 1.3312

Buy: 1.3316 Take profit: 1.3360

Sell: 1.3215 Take profit: 1.3194

Sell: 1.3188 Take profit: 1.3155

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7356, 0.7340, 0.7312, 0.7292, 0.7256, 0.7238 and 0.7210. Here, we clarified the objectives for the ascending structure of November 13. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7292 - 0.7312 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7340. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7356, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7256 - 0.7238 and breaking the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7210 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of November 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7292 Take profit: 0.7310

Buy: 0.7314 Take profit: 0.7340

Sell: 0.7255 Take profit: 0.7240

Sell: 0.7235 Take profit: 0.7230

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.23, 127.98, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, we are following the downward cycle of November 8. At the moment, the price is in deep correction and forms the potential for the top. The passage of the range of 129.00 - 129.17 will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 129.63.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.23 - 127.98. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 127.22 and in the range of 127.22 - 126.95 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 8, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 128.23 Take profit: 128.00

Sell: 127.93 Take profit: 127.30

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 151.16, 150.50, 149.52, 148.74, 147.55, 146.99, 146.58 and 145.91. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of November 13. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 148.74. In this case, the goal is 149.52, up to this level, we expect the formation of a pronounced initial structure. The breakdown of the level of 149.52 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 150.50. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 151.16.

We expect a departure in the correction after the breakdown of 147.55. In this case, the target is 146.99 and the range of 146.99 - 146.58 is the key support for the top. Its price will have to develop a downward structure. In this case, the target is 145.91.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 148.76 Take profit: 149.50

Buy: 149.56 Take profit: 150.50

Sell: 147.55 Take profit: 147.00

Sell: 146.58 Take profit: 145.95

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 15.11.2018

Burning forecast 15.11.2018

EUR USD: Preparing to move.

The us inflation report on Wednesday did not support the dollar.

A large package of data on the US will be released on Thursday at 12.30 - possible increase in volatility

The downward movement of the euro is broken - but the upward trend is not yet organized.

We are ready to buy the EURUSD from 1.1350, stop 1.1305, target 1.1500.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1214.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. GBP / JPY review for the week of November 15

Wave pattern graphics H 4:

On the cross-country graph, the rising wave of August 15 is nearing completion. In the structure of the larger D1 wave, this section does not go beyond the correction.

Wave pattern graphics H1:

Since October 26, the rising wave develops. It became the final model of the H4. The structure has completed the first 2 parts (AB).

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Wave pattern graphics M15:

On November 13, a wave of this scale began to count. Continuation will follow after the current correctional flat.

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the upcoming days, you can expect a sharp jump in price growth. Potential is limited to the nearest large-scale resistance zone. Buy with caution, possibly increasing volatility.

Resistance zones:

- 150.00 / 150.50

Support areas:

- 146.40 / 145.90

Explanations to the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, 3 main TFs are used. On each the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD / USD for November 15, 2018

AUD / USD

This morning, the Australian dollar has reached the upper limit of the price channel. The increase was due to the release of good employment data for October. In particular, the unemployment rate was kept at 5.0% against the pessimistic forecast of increase to 5.1%. In contrast with the 19.9 thousand total job expectancy, 32.8 thousand new jobs were created. But today, the United States can benefit from the price back. Retail sales for October are expected to increase by 0.6%. Also, on Friday, the industrial production is expected to increase. The forecast is 0.2%. The capacity utilization rate may increase from 78.1% to 78.3%.

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We are waiting for the Australian decline to support the trend line of the price channel in the area of 0.7118. However, this scenario lurks one danger. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line appeared a pronounced growth. It is possible that the resistance of the price channel will be able to overcome, which nevertheless, does not cancel our main scenario. The price channel will somewhat expand. Perhaps, the final stop will occur at 0.7316 and the maximum was reported on September 26.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com