Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for September 17, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite impulsive with bullish gains recently which led the price towards 112.00 resistance area with a daily close. Despite a series of downbeat economic reports from the US recently, USD managed to gain momentum over JPY that indicates certain weakness of JPY in the process.

After a series of high impact disappointing economic reports from the US like PPI, CPI and Retail Sales, USD is quite weak fundamentally and expected to remain indecisive as no high impact economic report is going to be published today. Today US Empire State Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 23.2 from the previous figure of 25.6. Additionally, this week on Wednesday Building Permits is expected to be unchanged at 1.31M and Housing Starts is expected to increase to 1.24M from the previous figure of 1.17M.

On the other hand, Japanese banks are closed today due to the observance of Aged Day. However, despite a bank holiday JPY managed to sustain the momentum over USD in the process. The BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Policy Rate decision which is expected to be unchanged at -0.10% may lead to certain volatility in the pair for the week.

Meanhwile, the economic calendar lacks macroeconomic reports from the US, thus the pair will sustain further impulsive gains in the process this week. Data from Japan is going to provide the required momentum and determine market sentiment.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 112.00 area from where a daily close above 112.00 area is expected to provide the required momentum for the price to push higher with target towards 113.00 area in the coming days. As the price remains above 110.50 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 110.50

RESISTANCE: 112.00, 113.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for September 17. Wave counting becomes more complicated, but the pair's growth persists

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on September 14, the GBP / USD currency pair lost several tens of percentage points, but remained within the framework of the upward wave. The wave pattern on the instrument has undergone certain changes, and the entire area after August 15 has been transformed into complex correctional structures. Based on the new wave counting, we can expect the pair to continue growing within the framework of the third wave of the correctional structure, which is already getting quite complicated in its internal wave structure. The diagonal triangle is not yet complete, the lower forming line supports the prospect of increasing quotations.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3181 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.3275 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2636 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (the highest grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to be in a stage of uncertainty. The third wave of the upward trend segment, which began on August 15, continues its construction with targets near the calculated marks of 1.3181 and 1.3275, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% of Fibonacci. However, this wave can end at any time. Thus, with purchases, you should be careful. Sales of the pair so far I do not recommend because of the ambiguity of the wave pattern.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for September 17. The pair remains within the rising wave

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Friday, the currency pair EUR / USD fell by 70 percentage points. Despite this, the pair still remains within the construction of the proposed wave 3, a, of the upward trend section. Much now depends on the nature of the news background and the development of the trade conflict between Beijing and Washington. The results of this conflict can lead to demand for the dollar, and adjustments and additions to the current wave counting will be required. Before the breakthrough of the maximum of the supposed first wave, it is entirely possible to resume the construction of the downtrend section of the trend.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1517 - 50.0% of Fibonacci retracement

1.1465 - 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1733 - 0.0% of Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair presumably continues to build wave 3, a, but the wave pattern gets more confused every day, so now we need caution in trading. The increase in quotes may resume within wave 3 with targets near the estimated mark of 1.1733, which corresponds to 0.0% of Fibonacci. The rest will depend on whether the breakout attempt is successful or not.

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Political risks of Italy are pressured by the euro

A strong report on consumer sentiment in the United States, as well as on industrial production growth, very quickly eclipsed the weak data on retail sales, keeping the ascending potential of the US dollar against a number of world currencies, especially against the euro.

Political risks of Italy

Pressure on risky assets could be provided by conversations related to Italy and its policies, which are carried out by the new authorities. According to a number of leading economic agencies, the risks associated with the Italian policy are taken into account only in the government bonds of Italy, however, they have not affected the quotations of the euro.

Any changes in the rate of the new government, especially concerning the public debt, can seriously affect the quotes of the European currency, which will lead to a sharp drop against the US dollar, and trade conflicts that are flaring up with renewed force will continue to support the US currency.

Data on the US economy

As I noted above, data on weak growth in retail sales in the US did not put pressure on the dollar.

According to the report of the US Department of Labor, retail sales in August 2018 grew by only 0.1% compared to the previous month and amounted to $ 509 billion. A number of economists expected a larger increase in sales by 0.4%. Compared to the same period last year, retail sales in the US in August rose by 6.6%. The report also indicates that the July data were revised upward to 0.7%.

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Prices for imported goods in the US declined in August. According to the report of the Ministry of Labor, import prices in August 2018 dropped by 0.6% compared to the previous month. Economists had expected that import prices in August would fall by 0.3%. As indicated in the report, the main pressure on import prices was made by the decrease in the cost of oil. The price of imported oil fell immediately by 3.9% compared to the previous month.

Good support for the US dollar in the second half of the day was provided by data on the growth of industrial production, which indicates a healthy economy. The increase in production was due to the growth of the utilities and automotive sector.

As indicated in the report of the Federal Reserve System, industrial production in August 2018 increased by 0.4%, while economists forecast growth of 0.3%.

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Inventories of companies in the US in July rose by 0.6% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.95 trillion US dollars. Such data was provided by the US Department of Commerce on Friday. Economists had expected that stocks in July rose by 0.5% compared to the previous month.

As I noted above, let it be preliminary, but the growth of US consumer sentiment will positively affect the pace of economic growth.

According to the data, the indicator of consumer sentiment rose to the level of 2004. So, according to the University of Michigan, the preliminary index of consumer sentiment in September 2018 rose to 100.8 points from the August value of 96.2 points. Economists had expected that the preliminary figure for September would be 96.1 points.

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Particularly positive on the index were the expectations of further economic growth, which will lead to the creation of a new number of jobs and a reduction in the level of unemployment.

The speech of the FRS representative Charles Evans was also positive. In his opinion, the US economy is growing at full speed, which speaks in favor of a gradual increase in rates.

Evans expects GDP growth of 3% this year and about 2%, while unemployment should decline to only 3.5% by 2020. A representative of the Fed predicts that inflation will exceed 2% in the near future.

Technical picture EUR / USD

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, then there is all the hope for the level of support 1.1615, the breakthrough of which will lead to a new major downward wave and completely erase the upward impulse on the euro with a decline to the levels of 1.1570 and 1.1520.

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A week before the Fed meeting, the dollar is weakening

The past week has increased concerns about the steady growth of the US economy and the ability of the Fed to keep its plan for tightening monetary policy for 2019.

In addition to the growth of the budget deficit and the slowdown in consumer inflation, it was found that the growth rate of retail sales in August fell to a minimum, the growth was only 0.1% against 0.7% in July, which in the end indicates a slowdown in consumer demand. Despite the fact that the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan grew from 96.2 to 100.8p, more and more data indicate that consumer optimism is largely based on positive expectations, and not on positive changes.

The "Sacred Cow" of the Fed, the Phillips curve, is before a serious test of adequacy. For many years, the Fed has come to the assumption that the growth of the labor market leads to a rise in wages, which in turn stimulates consumer demand and overall economic growth. Quite a logical chain, which, nevertheless, does not work in the current conditions at all, which indicates the presence of additional factors that change the whole picture.

The report of the Ministry of Labor a week earlier showed that the average wage growth in August was 2.9%. This is the strongest indicator for 10 years, which, according to Phillips's formula, should lead to an increase in consumer inflation, but as a result, everything turned out exactly the opposite, inflation showed a slowdown in growth.

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Unemployment at the lowest levels since the crisis began, it is unlikely that the growth of new jobs will be maintained at a high level, and labor productivity continues to grow more slowly than before the crisis. This ultimately means that the recent growth in consumer demand is just a response to a reduction in the tax burden, rather than an answer to positive changes in the economy. The positive momentum may end much earlier than the markets expect.

At the moment, the markets have no doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at the meeting on September 26 and again in December. However, relative to 2019, the situation can change significantly if the Fed has no reason to support the forecast for inflation and GDP growth rates, but it is precisely this. At the moment, the probability of a rate hike in March 2019 is approaching 50%, which allows the dollar to hold positions against G10 currencies, but confidence is gradually declining.

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On Thursday, Trump announced that he could again raise import duties from China in the near future, on Friday this statement was confirmed by the administration of the White House. Markets reacted more calmly than they could, as there were rumors that duties would be raised not by 25%, as announced, but only by 10%, and only if China does not make concessions, their level will be brought to the original announced.

China is not going to make concessions in any way. In the case of imposing duties, negotiations cannot take place at all, and the Chinese side will take a number of asymmetric measures, which are painful for the United States. In particular, it may be about increasing duties on raw materials and components for US companies that have production in China, that is, worsen their competitiveness due to rising costs. This step will be very sensitive to the US and will show the apparent futility of any form of pressure.

The dollar feels insecure at the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, the US Treasury will publish a report on the movement of foreign capital, a decrease in capital inflows may deprive bulls of confidence in the dollar, on Wednesday there will be a report on the current operating balance for the 2nd quarter, which may also show a deterioration.

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday has a propensity for growth, the euro will move to 1.1720 and will try to gain a foothold higher. Today there will be data on consumer inflation, forecasts are more optimistic than neutral, the euro can get support.

The currency pair GBP / USD will be more likely to trade in the sideways range, until Wednesday significant economic publications are not expected, the Brexit factor also does not yet provide direction.

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EUR / USD: plan for the European session on September 17. Bears dragged the market to their side

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Good data on the US economy returned the demand for the US dollar on Friday. At the moment, consider the long positions in the euro best after a false breakdown at the level of support 1.1627 or a rebound from the new low in the area of 1.1603. The main task for buyers in the first half of the day will be a breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1650, which will allow to expect a test of the maximum of 1.1671 and 1.1702, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to form a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1650, just above which is the 30-day moving average, which also limits the upside potential in the euro. The main task will be to re-test and consolidate below the support level of 1.1627, which will keep the downside potential in EUR / USD and lead to the minimum in the area of 1.1603 and 1.1574, where I recommend fixing the profit. If the euro rises above 1.1650 in the morning, consider short positions can immediately be rebounded from resistance 1.1671.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average breaks down the 50-day moving average, which is a signal for the sale of the European currency.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on September 17. Buyers of the pound still early to panic

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Buyers of the pound need an urgent return to the resistance level of 1.3103, which will lead to the construction of a new larger wave of growth with the expectation of a test and breakdown of the maximum at 1.3141, above which levels of 1.3214 and 1.3263 open, where I recommend fixing the profits. Even if in the first half of the day, the GBP / USD falls below the support at 1.3070, there is no need to panic to the buyers of the pound. In the area of 1.3026 and 1.2981, a new lower limit of the upward price channel can be built, from which I recommend to gain long positions.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to form a false breakout in the area of intermediate resistance of 1.3101, which will be the first signal for the opening of short positions with the expectation of a decline and the breakdown of support at 1.3070, from which the pressure on the pound will increase, which will lead to the lows of 1.3026 and 1.2981, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.3103, short positions can be returned to a rebound from the weekly high of 1.3141.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average tries to punch down the 50-day moving average, which will form a short-term signal for the sale of the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on September 17. The previous steam maximum could not be updated

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart executed a turn in favor of the US currency and consolidation under the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1675. As a result, the process of falling can continue on September 17 towards the next corrective level of 61.8% - 1.1605. Quit of quotations from the level of Fibo 61.8% will allow to expect a turn in favor of the currency of the EU and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. Brewing divergences are not observed. Fixing the rate under the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the probability of further decline towards the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.1546.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, after the rebound from the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789. Brewing divergences are still not present in any indicator. The fall of the pair's rate from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the corrective level of 100.0%. Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of continuing the decline towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1675 with a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 61.8% if the pair retires from the correction level of 1,1605.

New sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the target of 1.1546 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 61.8% if the pair completes the closing at the level of 1.1605.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for September 17. Pound continues moderate growth

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart has fixed the correction level of Fibo 23.6% - 1.3067. Thus, on September 17, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.3316. There are again no maturing divergences in any indicator. The consolidation of the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 23.6% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US dollar and expect a slight drop towards the correction level of 0.0% - 1.2662.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed the quotes to turn in favor of the US currency and consolidation under the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.3112. As a result, the drop in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.3043. The pair's retracement from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and a return to the correction level of 127.2% - 1.3112. Fixing the pair at the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing the fall of quotations.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 30, 2018, and September 5, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair will be possible with the aim of 1.3112 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 100.0% if there is a retreat from the level of 1.3043 (hourly chart).

New sales of the GBP / USD currency pair will be possible with the target of 1.2982 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 100.0% if the pair completes the closing under the Fibo level of 1.3043.

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Weekly review of the EUR / USD currency pair from September 17 to 22, 2018

Trend analysis (Figure 1).On the weekly chart, the price closed above the recession level of 23.6% (blue dotted line). This week, the market can continue to move up, with the nearest target of 1.1735, the upper fractal.

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Fig. 2 (weekly chart).Complex analysis:- Indicator analysis - up;- Fibonacci levels - up (blue dotted line);- Volumes - upwards;- Candle analysis - neutral;- Trend analysis - up;- Bollinger lines - down;- Monthly graph - up.Conclusion on complex analysis - up.The calculation of the first shadow of the week (Monday) on a weekly chart.The middle lines of the EMA 1/5/8 are the lower signal.The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the indicator lines CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastic with a period of 3/3/4) on the last run is the upper signal.The calculation of the system of indicators RSI for the first tail - up.The bottom line: a weekly candlestick calculation for indicator analysis showed that on Monday the price may have an upward trend, which should be confirmed by the daily chart.The calculation of the second shadow of the week (Friday).The calculation for the MACD linear part gave an upward trend (100 points up).The calculation of the MACD histogram gave an upward trend (100 points up).The bottom line: the calculation of the last day of the week on technical analysis showed that on Friday, the price may have an upward trend, which should be confirmed by the daily chart.The total result of the calculation of the candle currency pair EUR / USD on a weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of a weekly white candle and the absence of a second upper shadow.The nearest upper target is 1.1735, the upper fractal.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 17, 2018

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The recent bearish momentum of the GBP/USD has shown signs of weakness since September 5 when an ascending bottom was established around 1.2800

The GBP/USD pair is currently testing the depicted downtrend line which comes to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels where evident bearish rejection was supposed to exist there. However, a bullish breakout above 1.3090 is currently being executed.

As long as successful bullish breakout above 1.3090 is maintained, a further bullish advance will occur towards 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3315.

On the other hand, any decline below 1.3090 (61.8% Fibo level) will probably invalidate the bullish breakout scenario.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 17, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a Head and Shoulders pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the daily chart, for the bearish side of the market to be dominant, the pair needs quick bearish decline below 1.1500.

However, the price level of 1.1520 stood as a prominent demand level where another bullish pullback was initiated recently.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trapped between the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1500).

Another Bullish movement is expected towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750) where bearish rejection should be anticipated.

On the other hand, any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will allow further bullish advance towards 1.1850.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 17, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that BTC price rejected from the lower Keltner band at the price of $6.377, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found that price is trading inside of the trading range between the $6.312 (support) and the price of $6.457 (resistance). Watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.489 and at the price of $6.532.

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for September 17, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,198.20 (daily pivot). According to the M30 time – frame, I found a hidden bullish divergence on the the 3/10 oscillator in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found that price rejecting from the upward trendline, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,203.30 and at the price of $1,207.95.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 17, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3117. According to the M30 time – frame, I found series of the higher highs and higher lows, which is sign that buyers are in control. I also found the breakout of the Keltner upper band at 1.3100 in the background and the hidden bullish divergence on the 3/10 oscillator, which is another sign of strength. Watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3143 and at the price of 1.3175.

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GBP / USD. Week review. Still, everything depends on the outcome of negotiations on Brexit

24-hour timeframe

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Approximately the same picture we see in the pair GBP / USD, although the main currency pairs moved recently is not identical. The price has reached the upper boundary of the cloud Ichimoku and has not yet been able to gain a foothold above. Therefore, in this case, the chances of resuming the downward movement are quite good. On Wednesday, the UK inflation report for August will be published and its acceleration is expected, which may force the Bank of England to resume monetary policy tightening amid uncertainty over Brexit talks and a clear political crisis. On Thursday, a report on retail sales will be released. It is recommended to pay close attention to these data. Also, do not forget that until November (deadline for negotiations on Brexit) remains about a month and a half, and the parties, despite all the completion of the fact that 80% have already agreed, there are still key issues to solve, for example, the border of Northern Ireland. Thus, there is no consensus on the most important issues, which negates all progress in the negotiations between the EU and Britain. Either someone will have to make concessions, or there will be no deal. Mark Carney expresses serious concerns about this, warning that the absence of a "deal" with Brussels will lead to an even greater depreciation of the pound sterling and an increase in inflation, which has already to be restrained. He also compared the possible consequences of withdrawing from the EU without a "deal" with the financial crisis of 2008. Thus, it can be assumed that if the parties do not agree, Britain will face a serious crisis, which can not but affect the rate of the British currency, which has already fallen very much against the US dollar in recent years.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD this week will be able to continue moving upwards if it is possible to overcome the Senkou line of Span B. In this case, the path will be opened to targets 1.3180 and 1.3403. And these goals can be bargained off.

It is recommended to open short positions in the long term only after fixing the price below the Kijun-sen line, which will mean a change in the direction of the trend for the instrument. In this case, the first goal for the shorts will be the support level of 1.2698.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR / USD. Week review. Technically, the fall of the pair is more preferable

24-hour timeframe

zSxq1_0RHDA17vUS-NtCAxbIArBOLJHRiKWi6VW_The beginning of the week promises to be very interesting in terms of macroeconomic data, although there will not be too many of them. On Monday, the consumer price index will be published in the euro area. On Wednesday, Mario Draghi, the chairman of the ECB, will make a speech, which recently rarely pleases us with his speeches. In the States, this week will be relatively empty, without important macroeconomic reports. However, we continue to draw the attention of traders to the fact that the key factors that continue to exert a strong influence on the movement of the pair remain the topics of the trade war between the States and China and the political scandal in the White House, although, on this topic, no new messages have been received for the last week. So far, we can state the fact that despite the already quite long, though not too strong, strengthening of the euro, it was not possible to overcome the Senkou Span B line on the daytime timeframe at the first attempt. This indirectly indicates that the US currency can still move to a new downtrend at any time. Confront this will be Donald Trump, who understands that the more expensive a dollar, the more difficult it is to serve America's huge public long. There is still only one question open, is Trump waiting for the full solution of the issue with Beijing, or will he start a purposeful fight against the "expensive" dollar right now?

Trading recommendations:

For the EUR / USD currency pair, this week, it is recommended to follow the Senkou Span B. If traders manage to overcome it, and at the same time, break through the previous price peaks, this will significantly increase the chances of continuing to strengthen the euro with a target of 1.1790.

The sell-positions are recommended to be considered in the long term if traders return below the critical line (1.1515). In this case, the dollar can move to a new long period of growth with the first goal of the support level of 1.1357.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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The dollar continues to demonstrate enviable stability

Investors continue to receive contradictory signals, which makes them continue to be cautious.

On the one hand, this is the uncertainty of the prospects for resolving the trade crisis between the US and China, and on the other, contradictory data from economic statistics that do not allow the US dollar to continue its notable growth, and to turn down.

If investors still hope that a trade compromise between Canada and the EU, on the one hand, and the US on the other, will be achieved, the prospects for a positive resolution of the contradictions between the states and China are as yet unattainable. This is the main reason that influences the behavior of markets, whose participants fear that the growth rate of the world economy can not only slow down, but also start to decline, which in the long run will have a wide negative impact on the demand for commodity and raw materials assets and, of course, shares of companies. In this case, we should expect an increased demand for defensive assets, including the US dollar.

As for the impact of the data on economic statistics from the United States on the prospects for the US dollar, they are contradictory, but they are unlikely to force the Fed to abandon the process of continuing to raise interest rates.

So, on Friday were published the values of the index of retail sales, as well as their volume for the month of August. The data showed braking of the indicators, which had local pressure on the dollar, as many in the market probably decided that this was an important signal, together with the weak consumer inflation figures released earlier, which could call the Fed to pause the interest rate increase if not in this month, then closer to the end of the year, for sure.

According to the data, the base retail sales index in August fell sharply in growth to 0.3% from 0.9% in July. The volume increased by only 0.1% against a convincing growth in the previous month by 0.7%. In addition, the values of export and import price indices became negative, which respectively fell by -0.1% and -0.6%. These data caused a local weakening of the dollar, but then presented figures of the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, which showed growth to 100.8 points versus 96.2 points, compensated this negative and allowed the dollar to finish trading on Friday in positive territory.

Estimating the overall market picture, we continue to believe that the overall lateral dynamics in the currency market in pairs with the US dollar will continue, with the exception of commodity currencies - Australian and New Zealand dollars, which may resume the downward trend. This is due to the expectation of an increase in interest rates by the Fed this month and the lack of progress in the negotiations between the US and PRC on trade.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD currency pair is trading below 1.1645 amid expectations of publication of data on consumer inflation in the euro area. If the price is kept below this level on the wave of absence, the growth of inflationary pressure in the eurozone, then there is a probability of its local decrease to 1.1530.

The AUD / USD currency pair is trading below the 0.7170 level. The pressure on the pair is made by the lack of progress in the negotiations between the US and China on trade. If the pair does not rise above this mark, it may continue to decline to 0.7100.

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Forecast for EUR / USD as of September 17, 2018

EUR / USD

Friday's cautious growth, which we expected, turned out to be extremely cautious, having passed into the moderate fall of the euro. News agencies focused on the news about the possible introduction by President Trump of increased tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. Retail sales in the United States failed, the August increase was only 0.1% against the forecast of 0.4%, although the base sales index increased by a noticeable 0.3% (0.5% forecast). Industrial production, on the contrary, pleased investors by an increase of 0.4% against the forecast of 0.3%. The capacity utilization increased from 77.9% to 78.1%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised its forecast for GDP for the third quarter to 4.4%. Investors preferred to close the hard-won positions since the beginning of the week.

Nevertheless, the technical turnaround has not yet occurred. To do this, the price should be fixed below the balance line on the daily timeframe. At four o'clock, this fixing has already taken place. Also on H4 signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the territory of negative numbers, in the zone of decline of the trend. On the daily scale, the corresponding condition has not yet been formed.

A change in the trend will occur if the price is fixed under the Kruzenshtern trend line on the daily timeframe. Now, we are also cautiously waiting for the price reduction to support the price channel line of 1.1513. The line of Kruzenshtern on daily is located approximately at around 1.1453.

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Forecast for GBP / USD as of September 17, 2018

GBP / USD

Last Friday, the pound was under pressure from the strengthening of the US dollar and news that the Labor Party intends to vote against the government's Brexit project. But the decrease was small, 37 points, it could not change the technical picture, the price on the four-hour chart is still confidently above the balance line and the Kruzenshtern line. With the already double price convergence with the Marlin oscillator on H4, the situation tends to the fact that a three-fold convergence will form, the indicator lines Marlin unfolds upwards on H4. The price may rise to the level of 1.3212.

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The decline may continue to support the balance line on the daily timeframe, to 1.2982, the level coincides with the high of September 5. Thus, in the range 1.2982-1.3212 there is a free wander of the price. At the same time, growth seems limited, and the decline has a medium-term outlook in line with the trend since mid-March (1.4376).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 17, 2018

EUR/USD has pulled back towards its support at 1.16-1.1630. EUR/USD is most probably back testing the break out area and should bounce from current levels. I'm bullish as long as we trade above 1.16.

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Red line - broken resistance

Dark blue line - short-term support

Green line- Medium-term support

Blue dots - medium strength support

Orange dots - medium strength resistance

EUR/USD should bounce from current levels. I'm bullish here. I expect EUR/USD to move to new highs and break above the double top at 1.1720-1.1740 area for a move towards 1.19. The bearish Head and shoulders pattern has been canceled as price has moved above the right hand shoulder. However a break below 1.1520-1.15 will open the way for a move towards 1.14-1.1350.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for September 17, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite volatile recently. Impulsive bearish pressure, which engulfed the previous bullish price action with a daily close, indicates further bearish momentum in the pair. Despite a series of downbeat economic reports from the US, certain impulsive gain against EUR is indeed surprising.

EUR has been quite mixed with the recently published economic reports which provides the required setback for the bears to push lower with impulsive pressure on Friday. Ahead of ECB President Draghi's speech this week, certain volatility may be observed in this pair. Today the eurozone's Final CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 2.0%, Final Core CPI is also expected to be unchanged at 1.0%, Italian Trade Balance is expected to decrease to 4.82B from the previous figure of 5.07B, and German Buba Monthly report is going to be published today which is expected to have a neutral impact on the currency momentum.

On the USD side, after a series of high impact downbeat economic reports like PPI, CPI and Retail Sales, USD is quite weak fundamentally and expected to remain indecisive as no high impact economic report is going to be published today. Today US Empire State Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 23.2 from the previous figure of 25.6. Additionally, this week on Wednesday Building Permits is expected to be unchanged at 1.31M and Housing Starts is expected to increase to 1.24M from the previous figure of 1.17M

Meanhwile, market-moving event like ECB President's speech this week is expected to inject the required definite momentum for this pair. On the other hand, USD has been affected by a series of downbeat economic reports and low impact reports throughout the week. This is expected to be a setback for USD in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of Trend Line support while also having an engulfed bearish candle in the process. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and Trend Line support, a break with a daily close is required for the price to push much lower with a target towards 1.1500 and later towards 1.1300 area. As the price remains below 1.1750 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 1.1300, 1.1500

RESISTANCE: 1.1750

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for September 17, 2018

Gold price continues to move sideways between $1,210 and $1,190. Trend is bearish as price remains below the Daily Kumo. Price is also trapped between the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators.

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Green lines - sideways trading range

Gold price could bounce today towards the upper range boundary at $1,213 where we also find the Daily cloud resistance. Short-term support remains at $1,190-87 area. A daily close below this level will open the way for a push to new lows towards $1,140-$1,100.I prefer to be patient and wait for a bounce to sell Gold as I believe a test of cloud resistance will be seen soon and a rejection will follow. Only a break above the Daily Kumo will change the medium-term trend in Gold.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Sept 17, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Buba Monthly Report, Italian Trade Balance, Final Core CPI y/y, and Final CPI y/y. The US is due to release a macroeconomic report, Empire State Manufacturing Index. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1680

Strong Resistance: 1.1673

Original Resistance: 1.1662

Inner Sell Area: 1.1651

Target Inner Area: 1.1623

Inner Buy Area: 1.1595

Original Support: 1.1584

Strong Support: 1.1573

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1566

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Sept 17, 2018

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In Asia, Japan today will not release any economic data. However, the US will release a macroeconomic report, Empire State Manufacturing Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 112.64

Resistance. 2: 112.44

Resistance. 1: 112.24

Support. 1: 111.90

Support. 2: 111.70

Support. 3: 111.50

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a highlevel of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of someor all of your initial investment and therefore you should not investmoney that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Trading plan for 17/09/2018

The new week starts with a discussion about the future of trade wars, where the US can still announce new import duties on Chinese goods today, and China is reluctant to return to talks. However, financial markets have not shown any major commotion yet, which can be partially explained by the holiday in Japan.

On the currency market, the overnight changes are small and USD is slightly weaker, which may be surprising, as the risk aversion around trading wars usually helped the dollar. EUR / USD bounced from 1.1610 to 1.1640, USD / JPY is bouncing down to 112. AUD / USD drifts close to 0.7150.

On the stock market, the reaction is more pronounced - Shanghai Composite falls 1.2 % and Hang Seng loses 1.6%. Nikkei225 does not work through a holiday in Japan.

On Monday, the 17th of September, the event calendar is light in important economic events, but the global investors should pay attention to Consumer Price Index data from the Eurozone, Bundesbank Monthly Report data and two speeches from ECB members: Peter Praet and Benoit Coeure. During the US session, two most important data releases are Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases and NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 17/09/2018:

The most important data today are Eurozone CPI data, scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT. The market participants expect the CPI to remain stable at the level of 2.0%, just as the month before.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still moving inside of the channel, but the price is testing the lower support levels after the rally was capped at the level of 1.1720. The next immediate support is seen at the level of 1.1617, but any breakout below this level would mean the price is out of the channel as well. Please notice, there is still the black trendline support around the level of 1.1600 which might be useful as well. The momentum remains hovering around its neutral level of fifty, but the market conditions are now overbought, which is why a pull-back is expected.

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Global macro overview for 17/09/2018

The US labor market is growing the fastest in history - last week, the markets got to know the results of the July report of the American Bureau of Labor Statistics regarding JOLTS surveys, which examine the number of open jobs, employment, layoffs and net changes in the overall market condition. The forecasts assumed that the number of open vacancies in July 2018 will amount to 6.646 million, ie slightly less than the previous publication (6.822 million revised positively from 6.662 million). The current reading at the level of 6.939 million was thus significantly better, not only from forecasts but also from the previous publication. It is also worth noting that this is the highest value of this indicator in the entire history of its quotations.

Producer prices in the US are falling for the first time this year - on Wednesday, we got to know the latest results of the American PPI index. As it turned out, August brought an unexpected drop in the value of the US PPI. The producer price index is down 0.1% on a monthly basis after it registered no change in July, the US Department of Labor reports. In annual terms, the index recorded an increase of 2.8% after it rose by 3.3% in July. The economists surveyed by Reuters expected the PPI to increase in August by 0.2% (3.2%) on a monthly (annual) basis.

The oil inventories are contracting for the fourth week in a row - as every Wednesday afternoon, the market participants also got to know the reports of the American Energy Information Administration (EIA) regarding crude oil stocks on the local market. It shows that after a week-last fall of 4.302 million zlotys, in the week ending September 7, 2018, crude oil inventories contracted by as much as 5.396 million zlotys, which turned out to be more than four times better than forecasts for a drop of 1,300 million barrels.

American claims the lowest since 1969 - according to the Department of Labor report published on Thursday, the number of jobless claims in the week ending September 8 was 204,000, which is lower by as much as one thousand from the revised upturn from the previous week (205,000). What is important was the lowest number of new applications for benefits from December 6, 1969, when it amounted to 202,000.

CPI inflation in monthly terms increases by 0.2% - at the same time, we also got to know the July CPI reading in monthly terms, which was at the level of 0.2%. Economists assumed that in June it would rise to 0.3%, but the hopes were not met. Consumer inflation in June increased only by 0.2%, as in the previous reading. On a year-to-year basis, the CPI decreases to 2.7%, thus lower than analysts' forecasts (2.8%) and the previous publication (2.9%).

Retail sales below expectations - according to information provided by the American Census Bureau, the value of the basic retail sales m / m increased in August this year. only by 0.3%, which turned out to be a result much worse than the previous publication (0.9%), as well as from the already no highest forecasts (0.5%). On the other hand, the full retail sales index is even worse, which despite the forecasts assuming an increase of 0.4%, eventually increased by only 0.1%.

Consumer mood in the US at the highest since March this year - on Friday, the markets also met the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan index for August this year. The index itself is based on telephone surveys that are conducted on a representative group of 500 US households. They ask for both an assessment of the current economic conditions and expectations as to the future. The consensus before this publication assumed a slight increase in the ratio value to 96.7 from 96.2 previously. However, as it turned out, the purchasing potential of American consumers seems to be significantly better now, as the result achieved at 100.8 is the best result since March this year.

In conclusion, the US economy under the Trump administration is developing very well, at least according to the official data. This macroeconomic environment is creating a good opportunity for the US Dollar to appreciate in the short and the long-term across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the daily time frame. The market has made an interesting Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern while the price bounced from the support at the level of 94.36. The local high was made at the level of 95.00 and there is still a chance for another move up as the market conditions are still oversold. Any violation of the blue trend line will be considered bullish and in that case, the next target will be at the level of 95.56 and then 95.75.

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Ethereum analysis for 17/09/2018

In spite of large price fluctuations of ETH and the recently announced downfall of the Ethereum project, its developers are working at full speed. The Ethereum system upgrade, announced last year, is to be officially launched on October 8. During the meeting on September 31, in which developers, miners and investors took part, updates were approved in the system under the general name Constantinople (or Constantinople). After being implemented at the blockchain level, significant changes will be made much more from the programmer's and the kicker's point of view than the user. The total number is five and is called Ethereum improvement proposals (Ethereum Improvement Proposals - EIP).

In connection with Constantinople, the nodes forming the system - ie computers on which the network software operates, will have to update or "rebel", as was the case when Ethereum Classic was created. This would initiate a new blockchain operating independently of the previous one. Most likely, this will not happen, but this possibility is just water for the mill for people looking for potential sensations.

The updates introduced in connection with Constantinople, as highlighted by the independent developer - Lane Retting, will not bring "big changes" to end users and are "maintenance and optimization updates". Modifications to the code are related to minor, although significant from the point of view of programmers, changes. They will also cover the structure of fees in the context of smart contracts (smart contracts). They are also a preparation to much more serious, and at the same time long-awaited, changes in the scalability of Ethereum.

Let's now take a look at the Ethereum technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market recently bounced from the level of $200 and made a local high at the level of $223. Currently, the price is moving inside of a horizontal consolidation made between those two levels. Please notice, the market conditions are now overbought and the momentum is coming down from the positive, strong levels towards the neutral level of fifty. This situation indicates a possible pull-back lover or a downtrend continuation soon.

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Bitcoin analysis for 17/09/2018

Startup for cryptographic payments Circle conducted a survey this week with more than 3,000 people, who showed that the majority of Millenials are considered "aggressive" investors. Members of other demographic groups, including Generation X and Baby Boomers, also took part in the survey. The platform used Survey Monkey to collect results, but only published responses from users who said they were aggressive investors.

It is worth noting that the results showed that almost twice as many men invest in cryptocurrencies compared to women. 42 percent of the male Millennials, 34 percent of men from generation X and 16 percent of men from the Baby Boomers generation declared an interest in cryptocurrencies, compared to 27 percent of women from generation Y, 19 percent of women from generation X and 9 percent of women who belong to Baby Boomers.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market was testing the technical resistance at the level of $6,521 and made a marginal high at the level of $6,548, but then returned to the consolidation area. Currently, the price is still trading above the black trend line, but any breakout lower will be considered bearish. The nearest support is seen at the level of $6,416 and then at $6,365. In a case of a breakout lower, the key support is seen at the level of $6,216.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 17, 2018

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There is not much news to bring in front here. The sideways consolidation continues to use up time rather than points. We could still see a dip closer to 1.7594 as long as minor resistance at 1.7804 caps the upside. From support at 1.7594 or upon a break above minor resistance at 1.7804 a new rally closer to 1.8030 should be expected as the long-term uptrend work its way towards the long-term target at 1.8369.

R3: 1.7954

R2: 1.7900

R1: 1.7825

Pivot: 1.7804

S1: 1.7755

S2: 1.7700

S3: 1.7683

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a possible buying opportunity near 1.7615 or upon a break above 1.7804.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 17, 2018

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The rally from 128.92 stalled at 131.17 and a minor correction is unfolding. A final dip closer to 130.02 can not be excluded, but it should just be a matter of time before the underlying uptrend from 127,86 is resumed for a continuation higher towards 131.99 as the next sub-target on the way higher to 136.50.

Short-term a break above minor resistance at 130.41 will be a good indication that a corrective low is in place and the next impulsive rally higher is developing towards 131.99 and above.

R3: 131.45

R2: 131.15

R1: 130.54

Pivot: 130.41

S1: 130.02

S2: 129,77

S3: 129.57

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.11 with our stop placed at 129.40. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 130.05 or upon a break above 130.41 and use the same stop at 129.40.

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NZD/USD Bounced Off Support, Prepare For A Further Rise

NZD/USD bounced nicely off its support at 0.6540 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 0.6572 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is bounced off its support at 3.6% where a corresponding rise could occur.

NZD/USD bounced nicely off its support where we expect to see a further rise.

Buy above 0.6540. Stop loss at 0.6522. Take profit at 0.6572.

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XAU/USD Bounced Off Support, Prepare For A Further Rise

XAU/USD bounced nicely off its support at 1,193(100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 1,204 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is bounced off its support at 5.6% where a corresponding rise could occur.

XAU/USD bounced nicely off its support where we expect to see a further rise.

Buy above 1,193. Stop loss at 1186. Take profit at 1,204.

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