Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 14/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

After the bounce from the technical support located at the level of 1.2786, the GBP/USD is trading again in the middle of the range, around the level of 1.2850. Liquidity is drying up again, but the momentum is still rather weak and just slightly positive despite the oversold conditions, so the next leg will likely be down again. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2705 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2939.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3033

WR2 - 1.2987

WR1 - 1.2853

Weekly Pivot - 1.2816

WS1 - 1.2681

WS2 - 1.2633

WS3 - 1.2516

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3000 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 14/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is finally testing the key Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.0994. Across the way down all the bounces are very shallow and the momentum remains weak and negative despite the oversold market conditions at the H4 timeframe chart. The bears are now in full control of the market and if the 61% Fibonacci retracement will not make the price to bounce higher, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.0940. Please notice, the level of 1.0999 is the key short-term technical support for the price as well, so some kind of a bounce should be expected from this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1256

WR2 - 1.1211

WR1 - 1.1097

Weekly Pivot - 1.1053

WS1 - 1.0934

WS2 - 1.0895

WS3 - 1.0778

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Trading plan EURUSD 11/14/2019

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There is still a shortage of strong news in the market.

Perhaps the situation will change on Friday – when a very large package of data on the US will be released.

On Wednesday, important data on retail price inflation in the United States were released – general prices showed an acceleration in growth to +0.4% – however, prices without food and gasoline have remained sluggish.

The data somewhat increased the pressure of buyers of the dollar – the euro pierced the level of 1.1000 but has not yet managed to gain a foothold below.

Today, a report on inflation in wholesale prices – but, as a rule, the market responds poorly to these data.

Our positions on the market are the same: we are on sale from 1.1070, but ready to buy from 1.1045.

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After listening to Powell, investors turned to the topic of the prospects for US-Chinese negotiations again (we expect a

Financial markets did not particularly respond to the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell in the Senate, where he reported on the work of the regulator and expressed a consolidated opinion of the Central Bank on the state of the American economy and its prospects.

The dry residue of his speech was a positive assessment of the state of the country's economy. He said that the Central Bank believes the current level of monetary policy is adequate and that "so far, the incoming information on the state of the economy will generally correspond to our forecasts." These words correspond to the signal that the regulator will not take any monetary measures in the near foreseeable future. However, it should be noted that he did not avoid the topic of the possibility of a change or "significant adjustment" of monetary policy, if necessary.

Among the negative phenomena, the head of the Fed noted the continuing uncertainty of the prospects for concluding a new trade agreement between the US and China, noting this as existing external risks.

Answering questions from senators, Powell was generally optimistic about the growth of the US economy, saying that it was "in really good condition," while noting that central banks would have less opportunity to cut rates in a "normal state", adding that the Federal Reserve does not consider the possibility of applying negative interest rates.

At the same time, global markets reacted on Wednesday to Powell's speech quite restrained. The US stock market closed mixed. The dollar in the currency exchange markets, in turn, traded in different directions. It received support against the euro and commodity currencies, but decline against safe-haven currencies - the yen and the Swiss franc. In addition, it remains under pressure in relation to gold. Also, a negative trend is noted in the profitability of the benchmark brand of 10-year Treasuries, which has been declining over the past two days.

In our opinion, this dynamics reflects the excitement of investors that it is not yet clear whether a new trade agreement between Washington and Beijing will be concluded this month or not. This uncertainty reappeared against the background of D. Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club on Tuesday, where he did not clarify the situation around the negotiations on this topic.

Nevertheless, we still believe that the decline in the euro against the dollar is due to the postponement in the Fed's lowering of rates. The sterling is consolidated against the background of the situation around Brexit, and the decline in commodity currencies is due to the uncertain prospects for US-Chinese negotiations, which also supports local demand for defensive assets.

Forecast of the day:

EURU/SD is trading below 1.1000. We believe it is possible to sell the pair with local targets 1.0985 and 1.0965 with the prospect of falling to 1.0945.

USD/JPY is trading above 108.65. Continuing concerns about the positive outcome of US-China trade negotiations could lead to further price reductions. If the pair falls below the level of 108.65, it can continue to decline to 108.20, and then to 108.00.

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EURUSD: Risks of disruption of the trade agreement between the US and China. The head of the Fed will not rush to lower interest

The pressure on risky assets continued after a small attempt to grow amid a decision by US President Donald Trump to postpone consideration of the introduction of duties on imports of European cars. Good indicators on the growth rate of inflation in the United States supported the dollar. However, the defining pressure on the euro was made by talk that negotiations between the US and China stalled again. This happened due to the issue of purchases of agricultural products.

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The American leader has repeatedly noted that China should purchase agricultural products on a larger scale, which is one of the conditions of the trade agreement. Yesterday, from certain sources, there is information about the fact that Beijing has refused to make a promise with regards to specific purchases of US agricultural products. Most likely, several statements on this issue will be made today by the White House administration, which will put additional pressure on the European currency, which still needs to "survive" several important fundamental statistics.

In the first half of the day, a report on German GDP will be released, and it is expected to indicate a contraction of the country's economy in the 3rd quarter of this year, which will further lead to a recession. The uncertainty of trade relations and weak economic activity negatively affects the prospects of the German economy. German GDP is expected to decline in the 3rd quarter by 0.1% compared with the previous quarter.

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As noted above, good data on inflation in the US supported the US dollar, but the slowdown in wage growth will harm Americans' spending. According to the US Department of Labor, the consumer price index (CPI) in October this year rose by 0.4% compared to the previous month, while economists had predicted its growth of 0.3%. As for core inflation, which does not take into account food and energy prices, there was an increase of 0.2% in October compared to September, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. The increase was mainly due to energy prices, which in October 2019 increased by 2.7% compared to the previous month. Compared with the same period the previous year, the index rose by 1.8% in October after rising by 1.7% in September.

A report by the US Department of Labor also indicated a reduction in earnings in October this year, even though unemployment is at its lows. The reduction in wages will negatively affect consumer spending, which will provide weaker support for the economy.

The US budget deficit continued to grow. According to the US Treasury Department, the deficit increased to 134 billion US dollars, and this was because expenses exceeded revenues. The annual deficit exceeded $1 trillion. In total, government spending in October amounted to 380 billion dollars, which is 8% higher than a year ago. But revenues were at $246 billion, decreasing by 3% compared to last year. On an annualized basis, revenues totaled $ 3.4 trillion and expenses were $ 4.4 trillion. The total deficit amounted to 4.8% of GDP.

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Yesterday's speech by the head of the Federal Reserve System to the Joint Economic Committee did not make significant changes to the market since on the whole, it did not differ much in originality.

Jerome Powell said interest rates would remain unchanged unless the outlook changed significantly and monetary policy was determined in advance. Hinting at a possible rate cut, Powell noted that the Fed will act accordingly in case of changes in prospects due to some events. The head of the committee expects moderate economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near the target level of 2%. Powell also paid special attention to low-interest rates, which, in his opinion, may limit the ability of monetary policy in terms of maintaining the economy.

Let me remind you that yesterday, US President Donald Trump once again criticized the actions of the central bank, saying that the United States needs low-interest rates in a fairly long period.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed much compared to yesterday's forecast. Bears are waiting for the update of the lows in the area of 1.0990 and 1.0960, which will increase the pressure on risky assets and maintain the current downward trend, which has been observed since November 4 this year. Much will depend on today's data on the GDP of Germany and the eurozone, as well as producer prices in the USA. Weak eurozone reports will put pressure on the trading instrument, however, if the bulls manage to regain the resistance of 1.1030, the situation could change dramatically, which will lead to an upward correction of risky assets in the areas of 1.1055 and 1.1090.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 14 - 2019

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We have seen the expected dip closer to 139.58 that completed red wave e and red wave iv for the next impulsive rally higher to 144.58. The trigger and confirmation that red wave iv is complete is a break above minor resistance at 140.26 and more importantly a break above 140.48.

As long as minor resistance at 140.26 is able to cap the upside, GBP/JPY is likely to try to push closer to the 139.34 limit. This should be a firm floor for the next impulsive rally.

R3: 141.00

R2: 140.75

R1: 140.48

Pivot: 140.26

S1: 139.88

S2: 139.58

S3: 139.34

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 138.75. If you are not long GBP yet, then buy a break above 140.26 and place your stop at 139.25

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 14 - 2019

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The EUR/JPY pair has extended the corrective decline in red wave ii to a low of 119.50. Our preferred count shows that a triple zig-zag is complete and a new impulsive rally could start anytime. In the short-term, a break above minor resistance at 119.84 and more importantly a break above resistance at 120.17 will confirm that red wave ii has completed and red wave iii towards 123.59 is developing.

We do not see anymore downside potential. If red wave ii is able to push all the outer limits, it still could drop a bit closer to 119.17. However, it looks quite unlikely.

So, look for a break above minor resistance at 119.84 as it is the most likely short-term outcome and the start of a new impulsive rally higher to 123.87.

R3: 120.64

R2: 120.16

S1: 119.84

Pivot: 119.69

S1: 119.55

S2: 119.39

S3: 119.17

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 119.84 and use the same stop at 119.00

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Overview of GBP/USD on November 14th. Traders are now only interested in Brexit and parliamentary elections in the UK

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 26.6625

If the EUR/USD currency pair is moving steadily down, albeit with minimal volatility, then the GBP/USD pair just froze in one place. Since the beginning of this week in the UK, there have been as many as 5 major macroeconomic reports published, among which are GDP, inflation and industrial production. Any of these reports could and should have sent the pair far down. However, instead of paying attention to the deteriorating macroeconomic statistics in Albion, traders paid attention to the news that Nigel Farage's party does not want and will not compete in the election with the conservatives. After that, the pound rose by 80 points and stuck near the moving average line directed sideways. If the currency pair has strong psychological barriers to further downward movement (the pair is near 2-year lows), then the British pound has no such barriers. After the quotes rose by 800 points, we did not see even a correction commensurate with this growth. As we have already said, all the most important macroeconomic reports are ignored, the increased probability of lowering the key rate by the Bank of England is ignored. Almost all events and macroeconomic data from the States are also not taken into account by market participants. Thus, there is a strong impression that the markets are waiting for something. And this "something" can only be parliamentary elections. As practice shows, traders do not want to consider any information other than directly related to the election or Brexit. Thus, such news should be expected in the hope that the pair will start moving again.

By the way, the consumer price index for October was released in the UK yesterday, which showed a slowdown in inflation to 1.5% y/y, while a slowdown to 1.6% was forecasted. Well, this is another negative factor in the treasury of the British pound, which, moreover, increases the chances of lowering the key rate by the Bank of England at the next meeting. Another important indicator will be published today – retail sales for October. According to traders' expectations, the indicator should grow by 3.7% y/y, which is much higher than the previous value. However, firstly, we believe that the real numbers may be below forecasts, and secondly, what difference does it make, what numbers we will see if the British pound continues to trade in the 30-point range?

We spoke in the article on the EUR/USD pair about the paradoxical situation, as a result of which the euro currency does not want to fall further, although there are all the necessary grounds for this. In principle, the British pound is now in a similar situation. It also does not want to get cheaper at a time when the factors for its fall are even greater than that of the euro currency. We should not forget about Brexit, which is once again put on pause, about the political crisis, which is not the fact that it will be resolved by holding another early election. In addition to Brexit and elections, the UK economy is getting closer to an outright crisis, and the country has not even left the European Union.

In conclusion, we can say the following. First, for the GBP/USD pair to move in the coming days, fundamental information regarding the election or Brexit is required. All other topics are ignored. Secondly, since traders are unlikely to conduct such a sluggish trade until December 12, it is still possible to expect a recovery in volatility and trend movement, but you need to wait for this moment, and not try to predict it. Technical indicators for the time being accurately indicate a flat, within which it is not recommended to trade.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2848

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2787

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2878

R2 – 1.2909

R3 – 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is trading neatly along with the moving average, so we do not recommend traders to open any positions now. To have the opportunity to trade, you need to wait until the quotes of the pound/dollar pair "detach" from the moving average line. Considering that traders are practically not responding to fundamental data, the flat can last from several days to several weeks. For such a scenario, you must also be prepared.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – the red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD pair on November 14th. Jerome Powell: the Fed has completed the cycle of reducing the key rate

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CSI: -109.8266

Although the volatility of the EUR/USD pair remains low, the downward trend remains, and the euro continues to fall steadily against the US dollar. Thus, the quotes came close to the Murray level of "4/8" - 1.0986, which, in turn, is very close to the 2-year lows of the pair. As you can see, bears continue to "steer" in the forex market, while the bulls continue to rest and wait for a more favorable time to return to work. At the same time, we draw readers' attention to the fact that traders have almost ceased to react to any macroeconomic events. In yesterday's evening article, we already wrote that the euro/dollar pair got into a paradoxical situation. On the one hand, there are no grounds for buying the euro currency, respectively, traders do not want to do it. On the other hand, there are no new good reasons for selling the euro around its 2-year lows. This leads to the fact that volatility is very weak and the downward movement slows down.

One of the bearish factors for EUR/USD quotes remains the Fed and Jerome Powell. Recall that the Fed lowered the key rate three times in a row, so, according to many experts, it is time to take a break. Yesterday, Jerome Powell officially confirmed this hypothesis, speaking before the Economic Committee of Congress. He said that the US economy continues to grow and the current state of monetary policy is appropriate as long as economic reports are in line with forecasts of moderate economic growth. Powell also said that the key indicators of the state of the economy remain the labor market and inflation. Powell himself expects further economic growth and looks to the future with a positive outlook. At the same time, noting that the effect of reducing key rates is always late, Powell said that it will take some time to fully experience the positive effect of easing monetary pressure on the economy.

What do we have in fact? Yesterday's US inflation report showed improvement. Jerome Powell almost openly stated that rates will not be reduced shortly. And the US dollar rose by 5 points at the end of the day. Such a reaction of market participants, from our point of view, could not be better said about the reluctance to continue to move the currency pair down. Traders are afraid of selling at the current, rather low levels so that news and events that would send the pair 50-60 points down in any other conditions now do not affect.

On Thursday, November 14, Germany and the European Union will release GDP data for the third quarter, their preliminary values. According to forecasts, the German GDP in the third quarter could be seriously affected (the consequences of falling industrial production?) and will decrease by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. European GDP could add 0.2% quarterly and 1.1% on an annualized basis. We believe that in any case, these numbers are low enough to cause euphoria among traders. Accordingly, we will not see any particularly strong market reaction again. As yesterday's speech by Jerome Powell in Congress showed the rhetoric of the head of the Fed and did not cause any surprise at all, so we do not expect anything like this from today's speech by Powell.

From a technical point of view, the lower channel of the linear regression continues to support the downward trend, the moving average line is directed downwards, the Heiken Ashi indicator continues to paint the bars blue. Thus, 20-30 points per day but the pair will move down. The most interesting thing will happen at the levels around 1.09 when the question arises about updating the current lows of the pair. Since most trend indicators point down, we recommend continuing to trade lower, but we warn that the trend may end in the range of 1.0900-1.1000.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0986

S2 – 1.0925

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1047

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1169

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the euro currency with targets at the levels of 1.0986 and 1.0925. Volatility at this time remains low and is likely to remain so. Purchases of the pair are now impractical since there are no fundamental or technical reasons for this.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – the red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 14. The pair is locked in the channel, but pressure on the pound will

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

After yesterday's statistics, pound buyers do not yet see a reason to open new long positions. Most likely, the increase in demand for the pound will occur only after the breakdown of resistance at 1.2855, which will lead to more powerful growth in the area of weekly highs of 1.2884 and 1.2910, where I recommend profit taking. Good data on retail sales in the UK, which is scheduled to be released today in the morning, and the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2823 will also be a signal to open long positions. Otherwise, I recommend postponing the purchase of the pound until updating larger levels in the areas of 1.2794 and 1.2769.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears take advantage of the lack of news on elections in the UK, but there is no powerful downward momentum in the pair yet. The direction of the side channel at 1.2823-1.2855 and the further direction of the pound will depend on which direction. Failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.2855 along with weak UK retail sales data will be the first signal to open short positions in GBP/USD, however, a more important target will be the low of 1.2823, a break which will raise pressure on the pound and push it to monthly support levels of 1.2794 and 1.2769, where I recommend profit taking. Positive news on the elections in the UK and the likely victory of the Conservative Party will lead to a growth of the pound in the region of highs 1.2884 and 1.2910, therefore it is better to sell for a rebound in the area of these ranges.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates market uncertainty with a further direction.

Bollinger bands

If the pair decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2823. The pound will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2855.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 14. Bears aim to break 1.1000. German and eurozone GDP data to help

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's data on US inflation was slightly above economists' forecast and did not lead to a continuation of the downward trend in the EUR/USD pair, which retains, although weak, but hope for an upward correction. The report indicated that the consumer price index in the US rose by 0.4% in October, while economists had forecast growth of 0.3%. Practically nothing has changed from a technical point of view. The bulls need a return to the resistance level of 1.1025, which they could not reach yesterday. Good reports on GDP in Germany and the eurozone can lead to such a scenario. A break of resistance at 1.1025 forms a larger upward correction with an update of highs of 1.1054 and 1.1081, where I recommend profit taking. However, maintaining the 1.1000 support will be an equally important task for the bulls, and the formation of a false breakout there will be the first signal to open long positions. In case of further decline in EUR/USD, I recommend buying only after updating a new local low of 1.0972, or open long positions immediately on the rebound from support at 1.0943.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers continue to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.1025, which is a bearish signal. A weak report on GDP growth in Germany and the eurozone in the morning can lead to a false breakout at this level, which will be a direct signal to sell the euro. However, a more important task for the bears will be to break through and consolidate below the psychological mark of 1.0000, around which trading has been going on for several days. A break of this level will open EUR/USD a direct road to the lows of 1.0972 and 1.0942, where I recommend profit taking. The pressure on the euro will only weaken if the bulls manage to regain the resistance of 1.1025. In this scenario, the first active short positions can be observed in the region of the high of 1.1054, however, larger sellers will prefer to return to the market only after testing the area of 1.1081.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued pressure on the euro.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1000 will increase pressure on the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, November 14, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic reports will be released such as Flash GDP q/q, Flash Employment Change q/q, French Final CPI m/m, and German Prelim GDP q/q. The US will also publish the economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, PPI m/m, and Core PPI m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1061. Strong Resistance: 1.1055. Original Resistance: 1.1044. Inner Sell Area: 1.1033. Target Inner Area: 1.1007. Inner Buy Area: 1.0981. Original Support: 1.0970. Strong Support: 1.0959. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0953. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, November 14, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, Prelim GDP q/q, and Prelim GDP Price Index y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Crude Oil Inventories, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, PPI m/m, and Core PPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.36. Resistance. 2: 109.16. Resistance. 1: 108.94. Support. 1: 108.68. Support. 2: 108.47. Support. 3: 108.25. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 14, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro did not show its intent to go above the MACD line on the daily chart yesterday. The price consolidated below this line and continues to fall this morning. After consolidating below the nearest target level of 1.0985 (Fibonacci level of 138.2%), the euro will go to the level of 1.0925 - lows of September 3 and 12, then to 1.0895 - to accumulation levels in a deeper story.

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On a four-hour chart, the price decreases evenly under the red line of balance, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves along the boundary with the growth territory and may follow a sharp decline.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 14, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading in a narrow range for the third session, which weakens the growth potential and enhances the potential for decline. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart is going deeper into the negative trend zone. The immediate goal of the price is the November 8 low at 1.2768. Overcoming the level opens the second target at 1.2703 - October 11 high, then 1.2608 - Fibonacci level of 38.2%. The MACD line moves to this level, which in due time will strengthen support and, as a result, a subsequent correction is likely from it.

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On a four-hour chart, the price worked out the resistance of the MACD line in the region of the Fibonacci level of 38.2%. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is weakening, the pound will soon accelerate the fall.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 14, 2019

AUD/USD

Weak data on employment in Australia was released this morning, which accelerated the aussie's fall to the intended bearish goals. Against the expectation of a 15 thousand increase in new jobs in October, the number of unemployed grew by 19 thousand. The unemployment rate increased from 5.2% to 5.3% with the share of the economically active population dropping from 66.1% to 66.0%. Weak data also came out in China, which put additional pressure on the Australian currency. China's industrial production in October slowed down to 4.7% YOY from 5.8% YOY in September, retail sales decreased from 7.8% YOY to 7.2% YOY, fixed capital investment tightened from 5.4% YOY to 5.2% YOY. Even in Japan, GDP for the third quarter was only 0.1% against the expectations of 0.2% and 0.4% in the previous period.

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So, the price on the daily chart has reached the MACD line, overcoming it (0.6799) opens the way to the embedded line of the price channel in the area of 0.6757, then we are waiting to overcome this support with movement to lower goals.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned down from the boundary with the growth territory. We are waiting for the further development of the downward scenario.

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#USDX vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY vs GBP / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from November 14, 2019 APLs

Let's see how the movement of the cross-instruments EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY, as well as the dollar index #USDX and the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY will begin from November 14, 2019.

Minuette (H4 timeframe)

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US dollar Index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from November 14, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown range :

  • resistance level of 98.40 on the lower boundary of ISL38.2 of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 98.25 on the start line SSL of the Minuette operational scale fork.

During the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 98.40), the movement of the dollar index will continue in the equilibrium zone (98.40 - 98.80 - 99.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, the breakdown of support level 98.30 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale fork) is the option of developing the #USDX movement within 1/2 channels of the Median Minuette operational scale fork (98.25 - 98.00 - 97.75) and Minuette (98.20 - 98.10 - 98.00) with the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (97.60) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork

The marking options for the movement #USDX from November 14, 2019 is shown in the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The currency of the "country of the rising sun" in the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, respectively, the further development of the USD / JPY movement from November 14, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of border levels (109.10 - 108.90 108.75) of this channel. We look at the details on the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette channel (resistance level of 109.10) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of USD / JPY will develop to the goals: maximums (109.29 - 109.50) - control lines - UTL Minuette (109.55) - UTL Minuette (109.65) with the prospect of reaching the warning line UWL61.8 (110.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Combined breakdown of support levels :

- 108.75 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette;

- 108.70 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette;

will determine the development of the currency movement of the "land of the rising sun" within the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.70 - 108.40 - 108.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of updating the local minimum107.90.

The details of the USD/JPY movement, depending on the breakdown direction of the above 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, are shown on the animated chart.

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Euro vs Japanese yen

The development of the cross-instrument movement EUR / JPY from October 14, 2019 will continue in accordance with the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 120.10 at the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 119.80 on the ultimate Schiff Line Minuette.

The breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minuette (support level of 119.80) will direct the EUR / JPY movement to the starting SSL line Minuette (119.10) with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale fork (119.00 - 118.40 - 117.80) and Minuette (118.20 - 117.95 - 117.70) .

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 120.10, the development of the movement of this cross-instrument can be continued in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (120.10 - 120.60 - 121.05) taking into account the working out of the 1/2 median line channel of the Minuette (120.25 - 120.37 - 120.50).

The details of the EUR / JPY movement, depending on the development of the above range, are presented on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen

The movement of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument from November 14, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundary levels of the 1/2 Median Line channel (140.05 - 139.85 - 139.65) of the Minuette operational scale fork. Look at the animate chart for details.

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 140.05) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of GBP / JPY will develop towards the goals: UTL Minuette control line (140.71) - local maximum 141.47.

The breakdown of the support level of 106.55 at the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will determine the development of the downward movement of this cross-instrument to the final Schiff Line Minuette (139.00), during the breakdown of which it will be possible to reach the GBP / JPY boundaries of the equilibrium zones (138.50 - 138.10 - 137.75) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the GBP / JPY movement, depending on the breakdown direction of the 1/ 2 Median Line Minuette channel mentioned above, are shown on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on November 14

Forecast for November 14:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1108, 1.1090, 1.1064, 1.1044, 1.1013, 1.0973, 1.0941 and 1.0903. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 4. At the moment, we expect a movement to the level of 1.0973. Price consolidation is near this level. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.0973 - 1.0941. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0903. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1044 - 1.1064. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1090. The range of 1.1090 - 1.1108 is a key support for the descending structure, before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1045 Take profit: 1.1062

Buy: 1.1065 Take profit: 1.1090

Sell: 1.1012 Take profit: 1.0975

Sell: 1.0971 Take profit: 1.0941

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3032, 1.2997, 1.2946, 1.2905, 1.2876, 1.2840, 1.2817, 1.2790 and 1.2765. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of November 8. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.2876 - 1.2905. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the level of 1.2946. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2946 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2997. We consider the level 1.3032 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2840 - 1.2817. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2790. This level is a key support for the top, its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local descending structure. Here, the first goal is 1.2765.

The main trend is building potential for the top of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2876 Take profit: 1.2905

Buy: 1.2907 Take profit: 1.2944

Sell: 1.2840 Take profit: 1.2818

Sell: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2792

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9930, 0.9913, 0.9900, 0.9881, 0.9863, 0.9853 and 0.9831. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 8. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9881. In this case, the target is 0.9863. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9863 - 0.9853. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9831. The expressed movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9851.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9900 - 0.9913. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9930. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9900 Take profit: 0.9911

Buy : 0.9914 Take profit: 0.9930

Sell: 0.9880 Take profit: 0.9865

Sell: 0.9852 Take profit: 0.9831

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.09, 108.91, 108.62, 108.44, 108.29 and 108.06. Here, the price has canceled the development of the local upward structure and at the moment, we are watching the downward potential of November 7. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 108.62. In this case, the target is 108.44. Price consolidation is in the range of 108.44 - 108.29. We consider the level of 108.06 to be a potential value for the downward structure. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 108.91 - 109.09. The breakdown of the last value will have the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the potential target is 109.48.

Main trend: The downward trend of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.91 Take profit: 109.07

Buy : 109.11 Take profit: 109.45

Sell: 108.62 Take profit: 108.45

Sell: 108.28 Take profit: 108.06

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3332, 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185 and 1.3156. Here, we are following the medium-term upward structure from October 29, as well as the local structure for the top from November 5. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.3246 - 1.3268. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3332, and upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3185. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3156. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the medium-term initial conditions for the upward movement of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3246 Take profit: 1.3266

Buy : 1.3270 Take profit: 1.3332

Sell: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3187

Sell: 1.3183 Take profit: 1.3156

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6879, 0.6858, 0.6845, 0.6810, 0.6793, 0.6767, 0.6753 and 0.6722. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 5. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6810 - 0.6793. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the level of 0.6767. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6767 - 0.6753. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6722, upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6845 - 0.6858. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6879. This level is a key support for the downward structure of November 5.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6845 Take profit: 0.6856

Buy: 0.6859 Take profit: 0.6877

Sell : 0.6808 Take profit : 0.6793

Sell: 0.6790 Take profit: 0.6768

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 120.41, 120.03, 119.83, 119.51, 119.25, 118.92 and 118.72. Here, the subsequent targets for the downward movement is determined from the local structure on November 7. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 119.51 - 119.25. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 118.72, and upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement in the range of 118.92 - 118.72.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 119.83 - 120.03. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.41. This level is a key support for the downward trend.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.83 Take profit: 120.01

Buy: 120.06 Take profit: 120.40

Sell: 119.50 Take profit: 119.27

Sell: 119.24 Take profit: 118.92

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are :141.57, 141.27, 140.72, 140.27, 139.36, 138.97, 138.51, 138.19 and 137.71. Here, we consider the descending of November 5 as the main structure. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 139.36 - 138.97. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement to the level of 138.51. Price consolidation is in the range of 138.51 - 138.19. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 137.71. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback in the correction.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 140.27 - 140.72. The level of 140.72 is a key support for the initial conditions of November 5. Its passage at a price will lead to the development of the upward structure of November 11. Here, the first potential target is 141.27. Price consolidation is in the range of 141.27 - 141.57.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.72 Take profit: 141.27

Buy: 140.27 Take profit: 140.70

Sell: 139.36 Take profit: 138.98

Sell: 138.95 Take profit: 138.51

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Kiwi in flight: the main point is not to fall

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) turned out to be a surprise box for the market. Its decision not to change the current rate raised the national currency to an unprecedented height. Analysts fear that the kiwi's flight will not be interrupted again, since falling from heights is a rather painful process.

The New Zealand regulator overturned market expectations, refusing to cut the rate by another 25 basis points (bp). The financial institution left it at the same level - 1.00%. This decision triggered a wave of growth in the yield of short bonds of the country. As a result, New Zealand's two-year bonds soared by 15 bp, analysts said.

Such a decision from the RBNZ is explained by the fact that it wants to get the effect of the reductions that were already carried out before conducting another easing of the monetary policy. The bank emphasized that they were not going to shock the market, on the contrary, in early 2020, the agency intends to publish a document where it will present an alternative monetary policy plan. However, the market took this statement as a sign of the regulator's rejection of the zero-rate policy.

The news that RBNZ had retained its previous key rate immediately sent the NZD/USD pair to highs. The pair's quotes jumped 1.3% in a matter of minutes. The NZD/USD pair gained momentum on Wednesday, November 13, moving to an area above 0.6400.

Subsequently, the pair slightly fell, being in the range of 0.6393–0.6394. The NZD/USD pair did not stay long within this framework, unable to resist a fall.

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A decrease in the pair to the levels of 0.6387–0.6388 turned out to be short-term. The euphoria from the RNBZ's decision began to decline, and after the flight of the kiwi after it.

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The most difficult thing was for sellers of the New Zealand dollar. According to analysts, the NZD/USD pair showed the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. However, fortune soon turned its back on the bears, who were trapped in the sudden refusal of the RBNZ to further mitigate. If the New Zealand dollar continues to rally, the area of 0.6425-0.6450 will be important for the further rise of the NZD/USD pair.

At the moment, the pair is trading within 0.6390-0.6391, however, analysts do not exclude a further decline in the NZD/USD pair.

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Analysts believe that the global economy is at the beginning of a new trend, which involves either maintaining the same rates or gradually increasing them. For example, recently the Federal Reserve made it clear that it intends to take a break in reducing rates. The RBNZ picked up the baton, declaring its unwillingness to rush in matters of easing monetary policy. In the event of such a reversal, world markets may lose their key growth driver, analysts said. This raises concerns among economists and investors. The current situation is favorable for the New Zealand dollar, but experts allow its change in the near future.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound was given hope and it almost immediately got taken away

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The British currency continues to be in a state of price swing. In the wake of positive news, such as Nigel Faraj's refusal to fight for seats in the British Parliament, the pound sharply rose, and then began to fall no less rapidly. According to analysts, the sterling's hopes for growth were in vain.

At the very beginning of this week, the pound felt excellent, strengthening its position amid the growth of the British economy and after the news about the general election. These factors have significantly increased the likelihood of a Brexit deal at the end of this year, analysts said. The statements of Brexit Party leader Nigel Faraj provided powerful support to the sterling. Recall, he refused to fight for seats in the British Parliament, which is claimed by the Conservative Party. Analysts believe that the refusal of Faraj will allow the Conservative Party to receive a majority of votes. According to the party leader on Brexit issues, his candidates will only claim the places for which the Labour Party and the party opposing the country's exit from the EU are fighting for.

The good news for the pound was also strong data on the growth of the British economy. UK GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the previous quarter, and in annual terms, the growth was 1.2%. This was facilitated not only by high consumer spending, but also by active foreign trade. The economic growth in the country was not prevented even by uncertainty about Brexit and a slowdown in the global economy, analysts said.

However, the positive news for the sterling ended there. The sharply rising pound began a downward movement on Tuesday, November 12. Some currency strategists, analyzing the situation with Faraj's refusal, came to the conclusion that this move in the political game can checkmate the pound and the British economy. Of course, now Prime Minister Boris Johnson can claim the majority of votes in Parliament, but it is not known whether he will be able to get the right amount. Recall that if the prime minister wins, the UK can leave the EU without a deal, and this will not benefit the pound or the country's economy.

The British currency, which soared by almost 1% to the level of 1.2898 after Faraj's refusal, began to fall. Analysts consider this the most powerful jerk of the pound since the middle of last month. The sterling experienced serious volatility yesterday, dropping to the support level of 1.2830 at some point.

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By Tuesday evening, the British currency had leveled off a bit. The GBP/USD pair began to trade in the range of 1.2844-1.2845. The pound eventually tried to win back the lost positions, but it only managed to succeed the next day, and it was not to the full extent.

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The GBP/USD pair began with a positive on Wednesday morning, November 13, finding itself at around 1.2858. However, the pound could not hold it for a long time.

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Subsequently, the pair fell to the level of 1.2854–1.2855, but could not resist it either. Analysts have recorded a rapid subsidence of the GBP/USD pair and an increase in the downward trend.

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The downward movement intensified, confirming the worst forecasts of analysts. At the moment, the pair reached a critical rate of 1.2833.

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The pound, which weakened after the peak of euphoria caused by Faraj's statements, continued to slide into attempts to find the bottom. Fuel was added to the fire yesterday by the publication of weak data on the UK labor market. Disappointing statistics returned the British currency to the support level of 1.2828–1.2830, which buyers of the pound tried to keep in vain.

At the moment, the GBP/USD pair runs at extremely low levels of 1.2827–1.2828, having lost the entire safety margin accumulated earlier.

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Analysts were seriously worried about the pound's pullback to the level of 1.2827 and lower, which may lead to a further fall of the GBP/USD pair and a return to the support level of 1.2799. They remind that there will be a storm for the pound in the future. The sterling will experience serious volatility on Brexit election news and further voting.

The pound turned out to be a litmus test, sensitively responding to all the vicissitudes of the difficult path of Britain's exit from the European Union. The pound has always followed political events, and this time his vector is directed towards the upcoming elections. The dynamics of the British currency will depend on their results, which determine the future fate of Brexit.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Volumetric oil analysis and trading idea

Greetings, dear traders, I present to your attention a volume analysis of oil futures, which you can easily implement.

The expectation was a breakdown of the maximum of 57.88 as a weak seller since a test of US stocks took place since last week, which did not give further downward movement.

Last Friday (11/08/19), the pin-bar of purchases in the trend-up was not confirmed on Monday of the current week, because the price closed below the pin-bar of purchases as well as at a reduced volume, which indicates the absence of a buyer in the pin-bar.

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Yesterday, the absence of the buyer was confirmed, because it could not raise the price up again and the day closed even lower. On the other hand, the decline in oil took place during Trump's evening speech and took place at good volumes.

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Most likely, the price will go to lower prices. Over the past 3 days, all buyers could leave with a minimum of the pin-bar of purchases of 55.76.

Waiting down.

Price levels are presented with the futures of American oil. Now, moving to the levels relative to the bodies of the candles should be considered.

Good luck in trading!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD / USD - change of priority

Good evening, dear traders! A rather rare event has occurred today: the NZD rate has not been lowered, although all the data and forecasts have indicated otherwise. The market expected a rate cut by 0.25 basis points, and as a result, the RBNZ decided to leave it at the same level. Of course, the event was unexpected at the moment, and the market reacted bullish: the NZD/USD currency pair will end the current day with strong growth. Therefore, the recommendation for this instrument is attempts to take a long position (buy), but only from a pullback.

Thus, I believe that on such a "positive" for the New Zealand currency, growth can be expected to continue from the morning impulse and the level of 0.6442 can be considered a possible target for growth - this is an important level for sellers who believe in this level as a resistance level. Now, after today's news, a very real prospect opens up to see at least a false breakdown of this level.

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The level of 0.6369 is considered to be an intermediate level for the pullback - it would be interesting to see the pullback as such in its area.

I wish you all success in trading and great profits!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD, November 13. Results of the day. US inflation could not get traders out of hibernation

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 28p - 56p - 38p - 27p - 36p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 37p (low).

One of the most important indicators of the state of the foreign exchange market now is an indicator of volatility. For the EUR/USD pair, for example, it plunged to the low area and currently stands at 37 points a day. In the first two trading days of the week, such volatility was completely justified, since there were no important macroeconomic events during these days in either the United States or the European Union. Everything is logical. But today, when the calendar of macroeconomic publications was quite complete, traders showed the same disinterest in opening any positions. It is with this issue that we should deal with this article. Why is the market worth it?

First, a very brief look at all the publications of today and what they could provide to market participants. The first inflation to be published was in Germany. At the end of October, the consumer price index was +1.1% in annual terms and +0.1% in monthly terms. These were the predicted values and the previous values. Thus, the lack of reaction to this publication was not only because German inflation itself has a low degree of influence on the euro, but also because it did not surprise traders. In addition, industrial production in the eurozone for September was published, and here, at first glance, a surprise was even presented to traders, production increased by 0.1% as compared to the previous month, while experts predicted a decrease of 0.3% . In annual terms, the decrease was 1.7% with a forecast of -2.3%. However, if you look at the picture from the side, then such an "improvement" is simply a correction and nothing else. Industrial production consecutively fell for several months, now it is time for a correction. Thus, the downward trend in that indicator is not completely broken, and we can witness a new reduction in volumes already by the end of October. This was followed by the publication of the US consumer price index, and here the traders really had a reason to rejoice as inflation rose by 1.8% YOY in October, and again, thus, approaches the Federal Reserve's target level of 2.0% Most importantly, now we can assume that all the actions of the Fed lead to positive results in the form of accelerating inflation. Thus, this is an excellent "bell" for the US dollar, since now the Fed has even less reason for a new reduction in the key rate. This publication was somewhat overshadowed by the index of the consumer price index excluding food products and energy, which reached +2.3% YOY instead of the forecast +2.4% YOY. And after all these macroeconomic reports, the euro/dollar pair, in principle, remained at the same positions as it had before. Today, Jerome Powell is set to appear before the US Congress, however, given the current activity of market participants, it is unlikely that it will be able to move the pair from the place by more than 20-30 points.

The most interesting thing is that the pair does not stand in one place in the literal sense of the word. The downward trend is visible to the naked eye. But volatility does not exceed 40 points a day. That is, the bears sell the euro little by little and buy dollars, but they do it with extremely small volumes, and the bulls cannot even oppose anything against such small volumes, since they are completely absent on the market. I believe that there is no need to explain why there are no bulls. There are no fundamental and technical reasons for the growth of the euro now. But why are bears so shy and what to expect in this regard from the currency pair? We believe that the pair has again come close to the lowest levels for two years, near which more good reasons are needed for new sales of the pair than weak inflation in Germany or accelerated in the US. Thus, a paradoxical situation arises when there seems to be nothing left but to sell the euro, but the market does not have sufficient reason to actively sell the pair near its two-year lows. What can Jerome Powell say tonight? Is the US economy "showing signs of recovery" or "in good condition"? That in the near future the Fed will not need to intervene in monetary policy? All this is already understandable. Thus, we believe that in the evening the situation for the pair will not change, and the downward movement, weakening in recent days, can completely "cool down" and be replaced by an upward correction. The technical picture shows that the downward movement is weakening. This moment is clearly visible on the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is narrowing. Nevertheless, the downward trend persists as long as the price falls below the Kijun-sen critical line.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD pair resumed the downward trend. Thus, now it is still recommended to sell the currency pair with the goal of the first support level of 1.0966. The MACD indicator now often turns up, but in most cases it is discharged, since the downward movement is extremely weak. It is recommended to return to purchases of the euro currency no earlier than the bulls crossing the Kijun-sen line, which is not expected in the near future.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com