Control zones for USD / CAD pair on 11.06.19

The probability of further falling is 70% with the determining resistance of 1/2 WCZ of 1.3336-1.3327. As long as the pair is trading below this zone, the momentum will continue. Yesterday's move indicates a small support and a zone of limit buy orders. This may provide an opportunity to sell the tool at a better price. The goal of the decline is the weekly CZ of 1.3189-1.3171.

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Purchases from the current levels are not very profitable at a distance since the probability of a downward impulse continues above 70%. Holding the short position opened last week is the best strategy.

An alternative model will be the continuation of the fall from the current levels, which will not allow to get favorable prices for the sale of the instrument. This model is good for those who are already in sales at better prices since their positions are in breakeven.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for NZD / USD pair on 11.06.19

Yesterday, the closing of the American session occurred below the 1/2 WCZ of 0.6618-0.6612. This indicates a change in the direction of trade and sales came to the fore. The first goal of the decline will be the weekly CZ of 0.6558-0.6546, which coincides with the range of the average progress of the current week from purchases must be completely abandoned.

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When considering the movement of a higher timeframe, you can see a medium-term fall, which occurred in April and May. If this movement continues from the current levels, the main goal of the decline will be the May minimum.

An alternative model will be to fall from current levels without forming a correctional model. If this happens, it will be difficult to sell the instrument since the ratio of risk to profit will not be profitable. For sales, you need to get better prices. One of the options for buying a tool can be a quick test of the weekly control zone, as this will lead to the emergence of strong demand in most cases.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for 11/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The president of the US Securities and Exchange Commission Jay Clayton said that the regulator must feel comfortable in connection with the supervision of cryptocurrencies and ensure that no manipulation on the market could take place before approving the ETF cryptographic fund. Clayton made his comments during an interview with one of the financial television.

When Clayton was asked if an ETF based on a cryptocurrency package could be released in the United States, he said that the SEC is currently working to make this possible. However, he still remarked that various problems must be resolved before the ETF cryptocurrency is approved, starting with care: "We deal with this, but there are a few things that we need to feel comfortable with. The first is care: care is a long-term requirement in our markets".

Another important SEC problem is the alleged lack of robust preventive measures to manipulate the market. Clayton's views clearly contrast with the views expressed earlier this week by commissioner SEC Hester Peirce, who calls for a less cautious approach to innovation in the ETF space on the regulator's side.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the technical support at the level of $226.17 and broke through the trendline on its way up. Nevertheless, the traders should be extra careful here as the corrective structure ha snot been completed yet. From the Elliott Wave point of view, the market is ready to make another wave down, which will be labeled as the wave (c) of the overall corrective structure. The first target for this wave is seen at the level of $212.19.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $291.72

WR2 - $280.83

WR1 - $249.36

Weekly Pivot Point: $237.71

WS1 - $207.19

WS2 - $196.25

WS3 - $166.76

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the short-term trend, which is still down and the corrective cycle continues. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal, this is only the correction during the up trend.

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Technical analysis of Bitcoin for 11/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The research company CoinShares in its semi-annual mining report estimates that 74.1% of Bitcoin output is currently powered by renewable energy.

The report also states that "at current prices, the average miner is highly profitable, and even older tools and producers with high operating costs are now able to achieve a positive return on investment". The document also notes that Bitcoin extraction operations are concentrated where there is a lot of renewable energy.

The correlation between Bitcoin extraction and renewable energy means that Bitcoin mining "drives more renewable energy than almost any other large-scale industry in the world." The report also notes that since November last year the total network hashing has increased from 40 quintals hash per second (EH / s) to 50 EH / s.

This means that - during this period - the increase in computing power invested in maintaining the network was slower than the 10-year average, but in line with the average five-year average.

The report also indicates that the temporary drop in the hash rate (by about 40%) registered at the end of last year was the first recorded case in which there was a significant and long-lasting decrease in the network's computing power.

CoinShares believes that the recent increase in the Bitcoin hash rate is caused by the re-inclusion of old mining equipment after the higher price made them profitable and the implementation of the next generation of more efficient ASICs.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair bounced from the technical support at the level of $7,486 as anticipated, but was capped again at the level of $7,979. Currently, the market is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow horizontal range, but it does not look like it is about to go down. On the contrary, the price might be ready for another leg up as the momentum is increasing. The next target is seen at the level of $8,102 and $8,241.

On the other hand, any violation of the level of $7,405 will lead to the sell-off towards the level of $6,986.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,578

WR2 - $9,128

WR1 - $8,319

Weekly Pivot Point: $7,869

WS1 - $7,020

WS2 - $6,556

WS3 - $5,664

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the short-term trend, which is still down and the corrective cycle continues. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is up and there are no signs of any trend reversal, this is only the correction during the up trend.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 11/06/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair made a quick dip below the technical support at the level of 1.2668 and then bounced slightly, but not for long as well. The bears had started to make pressure on prices and now are trying to push the prices lower towards the level of 1.2647. The momentum is barely holding the neutral fifty level and it looks like is about to go lower as well. The stochastic is on its way towards the lower boundary already. Time for the bears to finish the move down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2954

WR2 - 1.2856

WR1 - 1.2800

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.2708

WS1 - 1.2658

WS2 - 1.2549

WS3 - 1.1502

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and correction should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 11/06/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair did not move much as the bulls have pushed the price a little bit higher again and now are consolidating the recent gains. Nevertheless, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator in overbought market conditions, so traders should expect a sudden spike down. If the local technical support at the level of 1.1305 is clearly violated, then the sell-off might accelerate towards the level of 1.1250 or even 1.1224. That move down will be considered as a local pull-back as along as new low is made below 1.1118, so the outlook remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1598

WR2 - 1.1464

WR1 - 1.1422

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.1290

WS1 - 1.1228

WS2 - 1.1091

WS3 - 1.1040

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is now up. All the local pull-backs and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. There is a downtrend reversal sign on the weekly time-frame chart, which is why the recent move up might be the beginning of the new uptrend.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for June 11, 2019

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Technical outlook:

We have presented the daily chart view for EURUSD as the single currency pair remains unchanged around 1.1310/15 levels at this moment. It has developed a doji candlestick pattern on the daily chart indicating indecisiveness.Thus, a bearish drop is expected from here. Structurally, we still favor an ending diagonal, possibly into its last leg, which should drag prices lower below 1.1107 levels. Please note that prices have stalled at a confluence of trend line resistance and the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of Wave 3 (between 1.1448 and 1.1107 levels), as labelled here. Immediate price resistance should be strong at 1.1148 levels, while interim support remains at 1.1107 levels respectively. If the described wave structure is correct, we could see prices reversing from below 1.1347 highs and push lower in a zigzag below 1.1107 levels. We shall re-evaluate the situation around 1.1180/90 levels, if prices stall and a bullish scenario prevails.

Trading plan:

Remain short, with stop above 1.1350 levels, target below 1.1107 levels.

Good luck!

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Burning forecast 06.11.2019 EURUSD

The euro showed a moderate correction against the background of overall growth against the dollar.

There was no important news that could drastically change the situation.

The market is waiting for the Fed meeting in a week, waiting for information about a possible rate cut.

EURUSD holds growth.

We keep buying from 1.1190 and from 1.1220

Possible purchases with a decrease.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 11, 2019

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GBP is trying to recover from the 136.56 low, but is clearly experiencing difficulties in it. The political uncertainty in the UK is weighing on GBP. However, we continue to look for more GBP-strength and a breakout above minor resistance at 138.26 will pave the way for a continued movement towards 139.62 and maybe for the next more serious obstacle at 141.41.

Only a direct breakout below 136.96 will invalidate our bullish outlook.

R3: 139.65

R2: 138.80

R1: 138.26

Pivot: 137.85

S1: 137.45

S2: 136.96

S3: 136.59

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 137.50 with our stop loss order placed at 136.90

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on June 11, 2019

AUD / USD pair

In the last two days, the Australian dollar made attempts to consolidate over the resistance cluster on a daily scale. However, the attempt ended with a divergence on the lower scale of H4, as well as the absorption of the Friday candle and the departure of the price under the balance and MACD indicator lines on both charts. Thus, the situation has become completely descending. The first goal of the decline is the embedded line of the price channel of the older TF in the area of 0.6900. Overcoming the support opens the second target of 0.6790, which is the support for the downstream line to the daily.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, June 11, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Sentix Investor Confidence. The US will also publish the economic data such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1375. Strong Resistance: 1.1368. Original Resistance: 1.1357. Inner Sell Area: 1.1346. Target Inner Area: 1.1319. Inner Buy Area: 1.1292. Original Support: 1.1281. Strong Support: 1.1270. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1263. (Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 11, 2019

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EUR/JPY continues to pave its way higher towards the next minor target seen at 123.61. This minor resistance could cause a correction back to the short-term important support at 122.26 before turning up again in an even stronger rally.

Minor support at 122.56 is expected to protect the downside for the next rally to 123.61.

R3: 123.61

R2: 123.18

R1: 122.93

Pivot: 12.53

S1: 122.26

S2: 122.07

S3: 121.72

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.75 and we will move our stop loss order higher to 122.05

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, June 11, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y and M2 Money Stock y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 109.13. Resistance. 2: 108.92. Resistance. 1: 108.70. Support. 1: 108.45. Support. 2: 108.23. Support. 3: 108.02. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD for June 11, 2019

GBP/USD

On Monday, the British pound lost 52 points due to the release of bad economic data. Industrial production in April fell by 2.7% against the forecast of -0.7%, GDP for April fell by -0.4% against the expectation of -0.1%.

The price turned from the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel of the daily chart, at the same time the line of Marlin turned from the border with the growth area.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line is fixed in the negative zone, at the moment the price is testing the red indicator balance line for durability. Leaving the price below the balance line will mean a trend shift towards the direction of a decline. We expect that the price will cope with this support and with the support of the MACD line (1.2633) due to the trend of daily scale, the goal of reducing 1.2610 is the low of August 15, 2018.

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Forecast for EUR/USD for June 11, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro closed the first day of the week with a slight decrease of 23 points, but technically the situation has not changed. Even on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the leading Marlin oscillator remained at the same value. Therefore, we are waiting for the price of divergence to be developed on a four-hour scale with the immediate goal of 1.1250 - supporting the MACD line of this scale. This goal also coincides with the support of the trend line of the price channel on the daily chart.

However, apart from the divergence, there are no other signs of a decline — the price remains above the balance and MACD lines on both working charts; so the risk of an increase remains as well as growth of two targets: 1.1356 - the Fibonacci level 76.4% and 1.1444 - the Fibonacci level 61.8% on the daily tf.

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Control zones GBPUSD 11.06.19

Yesterday's decline in the pair became natural, since on Friday there was an expiration of the option contract. Friday's compensation movement had a probability higher than 70%. Today GBPUSD is trading near the important WCZ 1/4 support zone 1.2677-1.2669. Until consolidation below this zone occurs, the likelihood of renewed growth is high.

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Work in the flat phase implies purchases from the lower boundary after the formation of the "false breakdown" pattern and their partial consolidation at a high of June.

An alternative model will be developed if the current closing of the US session or the opening of the European occurs below the level of 1.2669. This will allow you to continue selling the tool. The downward movement is still a medium-term impulse, which allows you to keep sales open last week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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Price is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce up to its resistance.

Entry :1.2652

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

Stop Loss : 1.2558

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 1.2764

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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AUD/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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Price is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce up to its resistance.

Entry : 0.6951

Why it's good : 38.2% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support

Stop Loss : 0.6923

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6989

Why it's good : Horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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USD/JPY to test resistance, a drop is possible!

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USDJPY to test key resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible

Entry: 109.012

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Stop Loss : 109.914

Why it's good :50% Fibonacci retracement,horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 107.854

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on June 11

Forecast for June 11:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1435, 1.1416, 1.1384, 1.1363, 1.1305, 1.1286, 1.1259 and 1.1214. Here, we are following the local ascending structure from June 5th. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1363 - 1.1384. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1416. We consider the level of 1.1435 to be a potential value to the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidation in the range of 1.1416 - 1.1435, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1305 - 1.1286. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.1259. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the potential goal is 1.1214.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of June 5th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1363 Take profit: 1.1382

Buy 1.1386 Take profit: 1.1416

Sell: 1.1305 Take profit: 1.1286

Sell: 1.1284 Take profit: 1.1262

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2808, 1.2789, 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2687, 1.2667 and 1.2633. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of May 31. At the moment, the price is in the correction area. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2727. In this case, the goal is 1.2754. Near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2755 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.2808. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2789 - 1.2808 and from here, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.2687 - 1.2667. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2633. This level is a key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of May 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2728 Take profit: 1.2752

Buy: 1.2755 Take profit: 1.2787

Sell: 1.2686 Take profit: 1.2668

Sell: 1.2664 Take profit: 1.2638

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9987, 0.9961, 0.9930, 0.9911, 0.9858, 0.9846, 0.9816 and 0.9795. Here, the price forms a local structure to continue the downward trend of June 6. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.9858 - 0.9846. In this case, the goal is 0.9816. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9795, near which, we expect a consolidation.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9911 - 0.9930. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure of June 6. In this case, the first potential target is 0.9961. To the level of 0.9987, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be completed.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 30, the local structure for the bottom of June 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9911 Take profit: 0.9928

Buy : 0.9932 Take profit: 0.9960

Sell: 0.9846 Take profit: 0.9816

Sell: 0.9814 Take profit: 0.9796

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.84, 108.43, 107.76, 107.44 and 106.99. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of May 30. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 107.76 - 107.44. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the movement of the potential target - 106.99. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 108.45 - 108.84. The level of 108.84 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will lead to the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend: the local structure for the bottom of May 30, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.45 Take profit: 108.82

Sell: 107.74 Take profit: 107.45

Sell: 107.42 Take profit: 107.00

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3403, 1.3379, 1.3339, 1.3299, 1.3250, 1.3225, 1.3167 and 1.3122. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of May 31. The continuation of the development of the main trend is expected after the price passes the noise range of 1.3250 - 1.3225. In this case, the goal is 1.3167, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3122. And from which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3299 - 1.3339. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3379. The noise range is between 1.3379 - 1.3403. Before it, we expect the registration of the expressed initial conditions for the ascending cycle.

The main trend is the downward structure of May 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3300 Take profit: 1.3337

Buy : 1.3342 Take profit: 1.3379

Sell: 1.3225 Take profit: 1.3170

Sell: 1.3165 Take profit: 1.3124

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6990, 0.6974, 0.6964, 0.6944, 0.6933, 0.6911 and 0.6893. Here, the price has canceled the formation of a local structure for the top and currently forms the potential for the bottom of June 7.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6944 - 0.6933. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6911. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6893. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the range of 0.6964 - 0.6974. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.6990. This level is a key support for the downward structure,. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the top. In this case, we have a potential target - 0.7021.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6975 Take profit: 0.6990

Buy: 0.6995 Take profit: 0.7010

Sell : 0.6933 Take profit : 0.6913

Sell: 0.6909 Take profit: 0.6895

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 124.10, 123.77, 123.47, 123.06, 122.87, 122.54, 122.31 and 121.98. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of June 3. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 122.87 - 123.06. In this case, the goal is 123.47. Price consolidation is in the range of 123.47 - 123.77. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 124.10. After reaching which, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 122.54 - 122.31. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.98. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of June 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 123.06 Take profit: 123.45

Buy: 123.48 Take profit: 123.75

Sell: 122.54 Take profit: 122.33

Sell: 122.25 Take profit: 122.00

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 139.44, 138.98, 138.67, 138.19, 137.47, 137.25, 136.97 and 136.52. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 4. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 138.20. In this case, the goal is 138.67. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, is in the range of 38.67 - 138.98. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 139.44. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 137.47 - 137.25. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 136.97. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 138.20 Take profit: 138.65

Buy: 138.69 Take profit: 138.96

Sell: 137.47 Take profit: 137.27

Sell: 137.20 Take profit: 136.98

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD h4 vs #USDX h4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from June 11, 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

We bring to your attention a comprehensive markup options for the movement of EUR/USD vs #USDX from June 11, 2019.

Minuette (h4)

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US Dollar Index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from June 11, 2019 will be due to the development of the borders of the 1/2 Median Line channel (96.75 <-> 96.90 <-> 97.00) of the Minuette operating scale.

The details of the #USDX movement in channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette are shown in the animated graphic.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (level of support of 96.75) will make the actual continuation of the downward movement of the dollar index to targets -> local minimum (96.47) <-> initial line of the SSL (96.40) Minuette operational scale fork <-> equilibrium zone (96.05 <-> 95.65 <-> 95.20) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (level of resistance of 97.00) -> option to continue movement #USDX to equilibrium zone (97.05 <-> 97.25 <-> 97.44), the Minuette operating scale fork with a view to achieving the boundaries of channel 1/2 Median Line (97.60 <-> 97.85 <-> 98.10) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Details of the movement of #USDX can be seen at the animated graphics.

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Euro vs US Dollar

As in the case with #USDX, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR/USD from June 11, 2019 will be conditioned by the mining of border levels (1.1295 <-> 1.1310 <-> 1.1330) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale.

Marking options for movement within the 1/2 ML channel Minuette is presented on the animated graphic.

In the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (the level of resistance of 1.1330), the upward movement of the single European currency will continue to targets -> local maximum 1.1348 <-> control line UTL (1.1360) Minuette operational scale fork <-> control line UTL (1.1395) Minuette operating scale <-> warning line UWL61.8 Minute ( 1.1425).

On the other hand, in the case that EUR / USD returns below the support level of 1.1295 (lower border of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette), the downward movement of this currency instrument will be directed to the borders of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute (1.1280 <-> 1.1260 <-> 1.1240) and zones balances of operational scales fork -> Minuette (1.1240 <-> 1.1215 <-> 1.1190) and Minuette (1.1240 <-> 1.1205 <-> 1.1170).

The details of the EUR / USD movement are presented in the animated graphic.

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fed: to lower the rate or prove independence?

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The dollar is not able to hold back after a weak employment report. On Monday, its growth is fairly restrained, despite the positive market relative to the conclusion of a deal with the Mexicans. This is due to the high expectations of a change in the course of monetary policy in the United States. In the run-up to the Fed's meeting, traders are most interested in not so much the fact of the rate reduction as the date, that is, when exactly the regulator will decide to soften. It is worth noting that the expectations of a reduction in rates at the July meeting are currently increased to 80%, in June - to 23%.

Nobody doubts that the growth of the US economy is slowing down. This, including, confirmed the reports on retail, factory orders, real estate purchases. In addition, according to the results of the study, the IMF reported that the fiscal actions undertaken in 2017–2018 - tax cuts, increased military and other expenses - will disappear in the coming years. According to the results of the current year, the real GDP of the United States will expand by 2.6%, and then the growth rates will fall below 2%, representatives of the Fund predicted.

It will be extremely difficult for the Fed to take such a step as lowering the rate, as this will to some extent affect the authority of the regulator and cast doubt on its independence. Donald Trump since last year accuses Jerome Powell and his team of excessively high rates, calling for monetary expansion. Therefore, as soon as the US central bank really starts easing monetary policy, rumors will spread around the market that this has been done to please the White House.

On Monday, Trump again attacked the Fed in his favorite manner, noting that Powell did not listen to him, that the central bank made a big mistake - it raised interest rates too quickly.

Obviously, the bright future of the US economy is in doubt, this is also indicated by the bond market. After the release of the disappointing release on employment in the country in May, the yield on 10-year-old treasuries updated the lowest mark for 2019 and is located at the very bottom of the autumn of 2017. The yield curve is in the red zone. In the old days, this was a clear signal of recession.

But there is one "but." About 20% of the $55 trillion debt market worldwide is characterized by negative rates. Their fall in America speaks of increasing concern for the fate of the world economy. If in the short term macroeconomic statistics for the United States does not get worse, and the S&P 500 is not adjusted, then why lower the rate? The indications of the debt and derivatives markets will begin to look aggressive, and this is a "bullish" factor for the greenback.

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The dollar is now in connection with the rising expectations of the Fed rate cut in June looks weaker than the euro. However, a single currency has its own problems, a cart and a small cart. Revaluation will complicate the ECB's already difficult task of achieving an inflation target of 2%. Slow economic growth in China will continue to put pressure on German exports, and the resumption of tensions between the EU and Italy will increase political risks. In addition, the Brexit issue has not yet been removed from the agenda.

By the way, in May, many banks in developing countries trimmed rates, and last week they were joined by regulators from Australia and India. The European Central Bank is ready to change the policy course. However, Jerome Powell's dovish comments will have a greater impact on the euro than the similar rhetoric of Mario Draghi. This is due to the fact that market participants consider the impact of the Fed rate more significant. In addition, Americans have much more room for maneuver. The ECB rate is already at zero, and the range of rates in the US is at 2.25–2.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Is it intended to change the dollar's trend, or is it still too early to mark the greenback as an outsider?

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For more than a week and a half, the USD index showed a decline of one and a half figures, having slumped from 98 points to 96.5 points. The idea of a quick easing of monetary policy by the Fed continues to gain popularity among investors.

The conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago last week was initially presented as a platform for discussion on the possible change of the inflation target, but ended with the promise of the regulator to act properly in the face of the risks associated with the protracted trade war between the US and China.

If earlier only the most ardent "doves" of the FOMC were speaking in this vein, now Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in a similar format.

The market interpreted the words of the chairman of the Federal Reserve about the readiness of the US central bank to abandon its patient position as an opportunity to speedily reduce the federal funds rate.

Most analysts agree on the need for this step, given the direct impact of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing on the US economy. In addition, the inversion of the yield curve for short-term and long-term US bonds became even more pronounced, continuing to signal the risk of a recession in the country.

The weak data on the US labor market for May released last Friday became another argument in favor of the Fed rate cut.

It is assumed that the regulator may consider reducing the rate already at the September meeting.

Against the background of a noticeable softening of the Fed's rhetoric, the EUR/USD pair reached highest levels in 2.5 months.

Following the meeting of the ECB, which took place last Thursday, the euro rose, breaking the mark of $ 1.13. The position of the regulator was regarded by investors as less pigeon than the Fed, which caused the strengthening of the single European currency against the dollar.

According to some experts, the growth of EUR/USD may turn out to be short-term, since the eurozone still has many problems of its own. Reuters reported that representatives of the ECB are considering the possibility of lowering the interest rate if the EU economy continues to slow down. Also, the regulator is concerned that inflation expectations can get out of control and that markets do not believe in the ability of the central bank to bring inflation to the target level of 2%.

However, if we proceed from the fact that the vectors of monetary rates of the ECB and the Fed will gradually converge, the EUR/USD pair may well shift closer to 1.14.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com