EUR/NZD analysis for July 08, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6412 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). In the daily time frame, we can observe an indecision bar in a volume above the average, which is a sign of sideways market. The short-term trend is neutral but the mid-term trend is still bullish. I found strong trading range between the prices of 1.6615 (resistance) and 1.6420 (support). Be careful when sellng at this stage since there is strong support around the price of 1.6420.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6605

R2: 1.6650

R3: 1.6725

Support levels:

S1: 1.6460

S2: 1.6415

S3: 1.6345

Trading recommendations: Selling EUR/NZD looks risky. We can observe sideways market so I am waiting for a clear breakout of our trading range and strong momentum.

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Gold analysis for July 08, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading downwards. The price has tested the level of $1,147.03 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). According to the daily time frame, we can observe selling climax (potential hidden buying) in the background. According to the H1 time frame, our support cluster around the price of $1,162.00 got broken in an ultra high volume. Also, we can observe strength near the price of $1,147.00, which is a sign that bullish correction is possible. The first resistance level is at the price of $1,159.00. If the price breaks the level of $1,159.00, we may see possible testing of the level of $1,163.00, $1,174.00. Selling looks risky at this stage because of the climatic action on the low. The short-term trend is bearish.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,165.30

R2: 1,171.00

R3: 1,179.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,147.00

S2: 1,142.00

S3: 1,133.00

Trading recommendations: Supply in an ultra high volume is in the background (selling climax). Be careful when selling around the price of $1,147.00 since the price created support there. Bullish phase is in progress. Watch for selling opportunities only if you see weak demand near resistance levels.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 08, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is underpinned by the broadly firmer US dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 96.68 versus 96.25 early Tuesday) as markets are awaiting further developments in Greece's negotiations with the European Union for emergency financing. USD/JPY is also supported by the narrower-than-expected US trade deficit of $41.87 billion (versus forecast $42.5 billion) in May and diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 5.41% to 16.09, S&P 500 closed 0.61% higher at 2,081.34 overnight) amid hopes that consensus could still be reached to avoid a potentially disorderly Greece's exit of the eurozone. New Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos made a strong presentation to his counterparts on Tuesday. Another facts behind the ongoing sistuation are demand from Japanese importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Upside, USD/JPY is limited by lower US treasury yields (10-year slipped 2.3 bps to 2.254% Tuesday)and Japan exporter sales.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Tuesday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 121.40. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 121. The pivot point stands at 122.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 122.60 and the second target at 122.90.

Resistance levels: 122.60 122.90 123.30

Support levels: 121.40 121 120.50

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EUR/AUD to continue its rally up

According to my previous EUR/AUD analysis, the price did bounce of the S3 support (1.4386) and rushed up breaking the 23.6% Fibs resistance level.

Currently 23.6% Fibs is acting as support, but the R1 resistance level (1.5085) yet to be reached. The trend confirmed to be bullish where buying opportunities should appear.

Consider buying EUR/AUD today on pullbacks. Particular area of interest is 1.4820-14840, where the price broke through resistance. It seems nearly impossible for the pair to reverse at this point, however stop loss at S1 (1.4755) should be used.

Support: 1.4755, 1.4551, 1.4386

Resistance: 1.4985, 1.5085

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EUR/USD could teste the bottom

According to my previous analysis of EUR/USD, the price failed to close below S2 (1.0953), which was the key support. This confirms that the trend is bullish and pair should be ready for a strong rally up now.

Consider buying EUR/USD near S1 (1.1014). Only a daily close below a low hit on July 7(1.0912) would most definitely change the trend. But for now, the market shows the green light for bulls.

Support: 1.1014, 1.0653, 1.0912

Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1321, 1.1510, 1.1819

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 8, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, a bearish breakout of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market. Persistence below the zone between 1.4950 and 1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700.

Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom (which initiated the ongoing bullish swing) was reached. A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800 which offered a valid sell entry. The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, higher highs around the level of 1.5200 were hit. That applied strong bullish pressure over the resistance level around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900.

Significant bearish rejection was expressed around price zone of 1.5900-1.5930. Since then, a major bearish swing has been taking place.

Recently, level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) was obviously breached earlier this week due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhances the bearish side of the market.

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.5550 for a valid sell entry. S/L should be placed above the level of 1.5620.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.5250 is the nearest support to meet the GBP/USD pair if the current bearish momentum persists. It should be watched for signs of bullish rejection.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 08, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a six-week high of 0.9515 on Tuesday. It is supported by the broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 96.68 versus 96.25 early Tuesday) as markets are awaiting futher developments in Greece's negotiations with the European Union for emergency financing, the threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention, and negative Swiss interest rates.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics is reverting to bullish mode at overbought levels, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9390. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9360. The pivot point stands at 0.9475. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9515 and the second target at 0.9540.

Resistance levels: 0.9515 0.9540 0.96

Support levels: 0.9390 0.9360 0.9315

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 08, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a five-year low 0.6619 on Tuesday. It is undermined by the broadly firmer dollar undertone and divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances, lower dairy prices and the weak aussie. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by improved investor risk tolerance and kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6710 and the second target at 0.6730. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.66 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6580. The pivot point is at 0.6630.

Resistance levels: 0.6710 0.6735 0.6780

Support levels: 0.66 0.6580 0.6550

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Global macro overview for July 8, 2015

Global macro overview for 08/07/2015 - Crude Oil Inventories

Crude oil inventories data is due at 2:30pm GMT today. The previous reading of 2386k barrels is expected to be challenged with an estimate of -750k barrels. In case of any positive number (more than 0) the recent 2-week sell-off might continue even below the level of 50.00. Other factors that affects the current decline in crude prices are investors flying to safe heavens as concerns about near-bankrupt Greece and Chinese stock market possible bubble crash weigh on prices. Moreover, Iran is still trying to bring more of its oil to the already oversupplied market by sealing the nuclear deal with the global powers adding fuel to the fire as well.

The daily chart represents a possible morning star candlestick formation just on the 50%Fibo level support. Any invalidation of this pattern (a daily candle close below the last candle close) will be considered very bearish in the context of crude prices.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 8, 2015

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Overview:

  • The AUD/USD pair is declining from the strong level of 0.7468. It is expected to move as low as 0.7433 today. It should be noted that the resistanceis seen at 0.7476 because this level formed a double top on July 08, 2015. Furthermore, the price has set below 36.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, please pay attention that we expect a saturation around the level of 0.7470. The market is likely to start showing signs of a bearish market again in order to indicate a bearish opportunity from the level of 0.7464 (11.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Accordingly, sell below the level of 0.7464 with the first target at 0.7371. If the trend manages to break the double bottom at the point of 0.7371, it will call for a downtrend in order to continue bearish move towards 0.7280. On the other hand, if bears manage to pull back above the level of 0.7470, buyers will be able to break this level. Therefore, the best solution is to set a stop loss at 0.7493.
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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 08, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. It is undermined by the uncertainty over Greece and Japan's exports. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers. Sterling sentiment is hurt by a surprising 0.6% drop on-month in May's manufacturing output in the UK (versus forecast +0.2%).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five and and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 186.40. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 185.50. The pivot point stands at 188.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 189.75 and the second target at 190.60.

Resistance levels: 189.75 190.60 191.35

Support levels: 186.40 185.50 185

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Global macro overview for July 8, 2015

Later, traders will get an opportunity to look at another hints, understatements, clues, and insights from today's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed is expected to clarify if it wants to raise the key interest rate at least twice this year. However, the global economic headwinds and internal slowdown are pushing back any potential date of tightening monetary policy cycle. Please notice as the Fed had released its last minutes three weeks ago, the global situation changed dramatically, with a possible Chinese stock market crash and Greece technical default leading the way. This is why the FOMC minutes might be out of date already as the US data for June were horrible and global situation has chanced a lot as well. The preached rate hike in the month of September by most hawkish Fed Governor Jerome Powell might not be seen this year at all.

FOMC meeting minutes for the month of June are scheduled for release at 6pm GMT today. High market volatility is expected during the time of realse is expected and the general idea to trade EUR/USD is as follows:

- dovish tone - EUR/USD should remain range bounded between the levels of 1.1120 - 1.0914

- hawkish tone - EUR/USD should make a new low below the level of 1.0914.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 8, 2015

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair will keep the bearish sentiment from the level of 0.6736 in the H4 chart. In addition, it should be noted that the level of 0.6736 represents the weekly resistance because it is coinciding with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci Expansion. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell below it at 0.6736 with a first target at 0.6657 to continue towards the point of 0.6621 in order to test a double bottom in this area. Then, if the price breaks the double bottom, it will call for a strong downtrend market in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.6582 (the weekly support 1). Equally important, the resistance would set at the 0.6736 level. Moreover, it should be noted that the range this week will be between the levels of 0.6736 and 0.6582; for that we expect a tiny range this week that will be probably up to 160 pips. However, the stop loss should be placed above the the weekly resistance at the price of 0.6780.

Note:

  • If the stop loss should be set in 44 pips (0.6780 - 0.6736) because the risk of 44 pips could make profit of 66 pips.
  • The key level will set at the level of 0.6736.
  • The double bottom has already placed at the point of 0.6621.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 8, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 850 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflect bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a bearish breakout of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term projection target is located at 0.9450.

However, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 may be executed only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached (considered a very low probability currently).

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After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (slightly below the depicted daily supply level).

A dayly closure below the level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1000 again where the uptrend comes to meet the EUR/USD pair (significant demand level depicted on the chart).

EUR/USD bulls must keep trading above 1.1000, so further bullish advancement can be achieved. Initial bullish target would be located at 1.1150 and 1.1300 (a prominent supply level to be watched).

On the other hand, a daily closure below the level of 1.0980 hinders an ongoing bullish scenario enabling a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0700 to take place.

That's why the current candlestick closure should be monitored by the end of the day in order to clarify further direction.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 8, 2015

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Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

Shortly after, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly key zone of 1.5500-1.5550 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

Last month, the market was pushed above this weekly key zone at 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900 (100% Fibonacci Expansion), which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. Evident bearish breakdown below 1.5500 is already taking place this week.

The weekly demand level around 1.5200 is currently exposed to be visited soon.

That's why the weekly candlestick closure should be monitored by the end of the week.

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A bearish breakout of the depicted bullish channel took place as a result of the bearish pressure around 1.5780 and 1.5660 (depicted on the chart with arrows).

After a bearish breakout of 1.5500-1.5550 (lower limit of the broken channel), the market failed to gather enough bearish momentum towards the intraday demand level of 1.5100.

Significant bullish pressure was observed around 1.5200. Hence, a bullish swing was established towards 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.5880 (FE 100%).

As anticipated, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as a significant supply zone for the GBP/USD pair. It offered a valid sell entry last week. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level at 1.5550 constituted as a significant demand level (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top). It was broken down yesterday.

The next demand level to watch is located at 1.5375 where short-term price actiona are ecpected.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5200 is another demand level, which will come next if bearish breakdown below 1.5350 takes place .

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 8, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looks quite overbought. That is why the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were reached within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend) for the USD/CAD pair. Bullish support was found around these levels. A bullish pullback took place shortly after.

The price zone of 1.2450-1.2500 (backside of the broken uptrend) then provided temporary resistance. Shortly after, a daily candlestick closure below 1.2430 enhanced further bearish decline.

However, the previous weekly candlestick closed at 1.2270 when the USD/CAD pair needed a frank weekly closure below 1.2300 to ensure further bearish decline in the long term. This reflected a lack of bearish momentum.

That is why an extensive bullish movement is currently being expressed on the chart. An overbought state is being manifested on the charts (temporary breaching of the upper limit of the weekly channel).

Persistence above the level of 1.2400 enhanced a quick bullish movement towards 1.2570 (the previous weekly closure level) and 1.2770, which has been tested since yesterday.

The price zone of 1.2740-1.2770 should be defended by bears (the upper limit of the weekly channel as well as 100% Fibonacci Expansion level of the most recent bullish move).

A valid sell can be offered around the current levels. S/L should be placed slightly above 1.2850.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 8, 2015

General overview for 08/07/2015 10:35 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the level of 1.2773 was hit and now the full five wave progression to the upside is completed. On the other hand, the alternative count shows another wave up possibility, but currently this count is in corrective cycle as well. The target for the wave c purple is at the intraday support at the level of 1.2674, but any breakout lower might move the support to the level of 1.2632. Please notice that the high for the wave 5 black is at the level of 1.2778 and any impulsive violation of this level might lead to another bullish progression to the upside.

Support/Resistance:

1.2778 - Intraday Resistance

1.2773 - WR1

1.2674 - Intraday Support

1.2632 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider closing the buy orders (TP from yesterday was hit) and wait for a further price action to develop. Please notice the bias is still bullish in the near term.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 8, 2015

General overview for 08/07/2015 10:20 CET

The Elliott wave progression in the daily time frames is now divided into two counts: main and alternative one. Both of them are showing the possibility of an upside reversal in wave C black, but the difference is in the placement of the bottom for the wave A blue and the wave B development.

According to the main count, we see the last downward five wave progression in wave C black and completed wave A blue. Then, from the low at the level of 126.05, there is another five wave progression to the updated, labeled as the wave A black. Currently, the downside corrective cycle in wave B has hit the level of 133.54 (50%Fibo), and it can either reverse now or there is a chance it will go little lower to the level of 131.78 (61%Fibo) and reverse. The target for this scenario is below the level of 149.80, but way above the wave A black last swing high.

In the alternative count, due to the different placement of the wave A blue, wave A black is in five waves as well but the current corrective cycle might not have been completed yet and it can go as low as the level of 126.05. When this level is hit, a bounce or reversal is expected.

Support/Resistance:

126.05 - Wave A Blue Low

131.67 - Wave A Black High

133.54 - 50%Fibo

131.78 - 61%Fibo

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should consider opening buy orders from the current price levels with SL just below the level of 133.02 and TP at the level of 141.50 min. Please notice that any breakout below the level of 133.03 will be considered bearish and buying on the dips is invalidated.

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USDX technical analysis for July 8, 2015

The US Dollar Index has broken above the medium-term trendline resistance showing that bulls are in control. The price is pulling back to backtest the breakout area. This backtesting is important as it will show us if the breakout was fake or not. The short-term trend remains bullish.

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Blue lines - trend lines

The US Dollar Index is above the Ichimoku cloud and has broken above the downward slopping trendline resistance. This breakout area is now being backtested. Support is at 96-95.70. Resistance is at 97.20-97.70.

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Blue line - medium-term trendline resistance

The US Dollar Index is making a weekly chart above the trendline resistance. The price is also above the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators which support the bullish trend. The price has retraced only near 38% and is bouncing strongly. If this week and the next one remain above 96, a new upward move will start with new highs as a target.

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Gold technical analysis for July 8, 2015

Gold price remains in a bearish trend and a new rejection at the resistance of $1,175 was seen yesterday, followed by a break of short-term support at $1,160. Gold price is now testing important long-term support at $1,140-30 as expected since it broke below the triangle pattern.

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Blue lines - triangle pattern

Red lines - projection of price movement

Gold price has broken below the triangle and the projections of an equal decline show that price could reach $1,000 or even lower. The trend is bearish as the price is making lower lows and lower highs and is below the cloud resistance.

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Blue line - long-term trendline support

The weekly chart remains bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud support and has broken below the blue trendline support. Next important support is the 2014 low at $1,130. I believe the new downward move has already started with the gold price target of $1,000. There will be confirmation when we break $1,130.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 08, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is seen to be heading lower towards $1,142.00/43.00 lows, created in March 2015 after having taken off $1,150.00 levels yesterday. As depicted on the daily chart here, a trendline support is passing through the current levels and bulls would have some reason to cheer up only if there is a trendline bounce. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and wait for a reversal. A break below $1,142.00 levels, would challenge $1,130.00 and lower levels. Please note that the next major support would be seen around $1,050/30.00 levels after that. Immediate support for now remains at $1,142.00 followed by $1,130.00, while resistance is seen at $1,175.00 and higher respectively. Bulls should be determined to hold trendline support to regain control.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 08, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver istrading around $14.80 now after dropping below the interim support of $15.50 yesterday. As depicted here, the metal has tested a low of $14.65 hit back in December 2014 and pulled back. A bullish reversal signal will indicate a potential double bottom formation encouraging bullish setups again. On the other hand, a break below $14.40 could result in further lows in coming days. It is therefore recommended to remain flat now until further confirmation will be seen on charts. Immediate support is $14.65 (interim) followed by $14.40 and lower while resistance is seen at $15.80 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Stay flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 08, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around the levels of 134.25/30 now bouncing off from 133.50 yesterday. Please note that the pair has produced a bullish morning star candlestick pattern on the H4 chart indicating a potential reversal on the higher side. It is hence recommended to hold long positions with risk at 133.00 now. Immediate support is seen at 133.00 followed by 131.50 and lower while resistance is seen at 139.00 followed by 140.00, 141.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 08, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading lower around 1.4600/10 as we expected and discussed earlier. Please note that the pair had reversed from fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels after a drop from 1.4830 to 1.4550 respectively. The pair is expected to drift lower towards the level of 1.4400 at least before resuming its rally. It is therefore recommended to book some profits on short positions taken earlier and hold the remaining with risk at 1.4850. Immediate support is seen at 1.4500/50 followed by 1.4400 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4725 levels followed by 1.4850 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book some profits for now and hold short positions with stop at 1.4850.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 8, 2015

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Technical summary:

The pair is still consolidating in a narrow range between 1.6410 and 1.6622, but we continue to look for a break above 1.6622 confirming more upside pressure towards 1.7154 as the next major upside target.

An unexpected breakput below support at 1.6410 will delay expected upside pressure, but only to decline closer to the support line near 1.6200 before the next rally.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6588 and will keep our stop at 1.6310, but move it higher to 1.6400 when resistance at 1.6622 gets broken. If you are not long EUR yet, buy EUR closre to 1.6410 or upon a break above 1.6622 using 1.6400 as the stop too.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 8, 2015

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Technical summary:

Important support at 133.07 is still holding firm keeping us cautious about breaking above minor resistance at 136.07. That should be the first indication of renewed upside pressure to 141.03 and 144.03.

Only an unexpected breakout below 133.07 will shift our stance from bullish (although cautiously) to bearish as the rally from 126.05 will be in three waves only and looks corrective (it is likely to be an x-wave for a new decline to 126.05 and lower).

Trading recommendation:

We will only buy EUR upon a breakout above 136.07.

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Technical analysis of EUR/AUD for July 08, 2015

Ahead of the Australian employment change and unemployment rate reports, AUD is trading lower against USD and the euro. At yesterday's session, the RBA maintaned its interest rate at 2.0%. It is likely to have a negative impact to AUD in coming days or weeks.

The cross is approaching the crucial resistance between 1.4900 and 1.4950 100Msma. In the weekly and daily charts, the cross is trading above moving averages. In case of a weekly close above 1.5000, bulls will aim for 1.5200 and 1.5300 in coming weeks. At today's session, we do not expect the cross to make a top around 1.4900.

In case Australian employment change and unemployment rate data comes out positive, the cross is likely to fall back below 1.4775 and 1.4730. In the H1 and H4 charts, negative divergence is being formed for a while. We expect healthy correction in coming days. Bulls can stretch to max 1.4900 and1.5000. Use rises to sell.

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Technical analysis of EUR/CAD for July 08, 2015

A fall in oil prices puts pressure on the loonie against USD and Euro. Ahead of Canada housing data, CAD is trading lower against the euro. The cross has been facing strong resistance at 1.4030. For consecutive 3 weeks, the cross has been unsuccessfully trying to breach this resistance. In case of a weekly close above 1.4030, bulls will head towards 1.4150 and 1.4250. The 50Msma is found at 1.3780. In the daily chart, the cross managed to close and trading above all the moving averages. As of now, the cross is unable to breach yesterday's high.

on the H1 and H4 charts, the cross has been making higher lows. The fresh up move looms above 1.4030 with targets at 1.4050, 1.4090, and 1.4120 in the extreme case. In case of positive readings for Canada housing, the cross will fall back towards 1.3920 initially, and towards 1.3850 later. The panic is likely to trigger below 1.3890 during a day.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 08, 2015

The yellow metal prices fell to a 4-month low of 1147.70 at yesterday's session. The day was filled with complete red paint. The metal started this week on a bearish note. In time frames, the precious metal lost all the moving averages. Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, the metal is trading lower at the Asian session. We do not expect the FOMC minutes to deliver surprising data. In this case a mild pullback towards $1,175.00 will take place. A daily close above $1,175.00 is likely to ease the bullish view. On the down side, the level of 1148.00 acts as support level. The parallel support is found at 1142.50.

The metal has been consolidating between 1151.00 and 1159.00 for 10 hours. The hourly oscillators indicate the oversold market. A daily close below $1,148.00 opens gates to re-test the previous lows of $1,142.50 and $1,135.00 initially. It is likely to extend further later. A mild pullback towards 1162 or 1165.00 is expected at today's session.

According to the world gold council, Turkey reported 6% of global consumer demand. The Ramadan will end on July 16. It's a culture in the Turkey after the Ramadan when people will to buy gold in the account of Seker Bayrami festival also known as the sugar Feast. We expect mild buying during these days.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 08, 2015

The US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in May, up $1.2 billion from $40.7 billion in April.

The number of job openings little changed by 5.4 million in May hitting the highest level since the series began in December 2000, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday.

Canada's exports declined 0.6% in May while imports edged up 0.2%. Canada's merchandise trade deficit with the world widened from $3.0 billion in April to $3.3 billion in May.

Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes and Canada's building permits, USD is trading higher against CAD at today's Asian session.

At yesterday's session, the pair rejected at 1.2780 falling by 80 pips from the highs. It reached a high at 1.2780 and fell back. The fall in oil prices put pressure on CAD against USD. The 20Wsma is found at 1.2400 and the parallel resistance is seen at 1.2800 and 1.2835. Bulls made a strong base in different levels initiated at 1.2200 and extended to 1.2300 and 1.2400 later. The hourly oscillators indicate the overbought market. Negative divergence is seen in the h4 chart. We can observe higher highs and higher lows in the daily and hourly charts. USD/CAD is the only pair which took an advantage from the Greek saga in the near term. Falling oil prices also help CAD. Intraday support is found at 1.2720, 1.2700, and 1.2660. Resistance is seen at 1.2785, 1.28000, and 1.2835. Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, we are not advising safe trades. Our advice is to wait for one more day. In case the pair manages to close above 1.2835, we will resume buying with a target at 1.3150. Today, the pair opened on a bullish note.

Risky traders can buy above 1.2785 with targets at 1.2800 and 1.2830. Risky sellers should use rises to sell with sl 1.2835 on a closing basis hold for the next 2 or 3 days.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 08, 2015

Pound bulls gave up again posted more than a 1% intraday fall. Bulls lost 50Dsma and 200Dema at yesterday's session. They had lost 20Dsma earlier.

Ahead of the UK budget release, the British pound is trading lower against USD. UK chancellor Gearge Osborne said he was determined to find 12 billion pounds in the form of welfare cuts in order to meet fiscal targets.

We approached major starting from the UK budget release and FOMC meeting minutes. Thursday is going to be a day when the decision on the bank interest rate is due.

Technical view: last week, the cable closed below 50Wsma at 1.5630, rejected at 1.5780. This week, the cable lost 50Dsma. It is seen at 1.5525 and 200Dema at 1.5550. The same levels are going to act as strong resistance in coming weeks. The nearest support is found at 1.5430 100Dema. At yesterday's article we forecasted "A daily close below 1.5520 opens gates for 1.5450 and 1.5430 in a day or two, low made 1.5414 on the very same day. The cable fell below the 3 month ascending trend line, testing the fate at 100Dema.”

As we had expected earlier, bulls failed to rebound at the territory between 1.5525 and 1.5430. The alternative is an attempt to rebound from 1.5360. Bulls' last accumulation point is found at 1.5260 20Wsma and 100Dsma sleeping there. Bulls will face the real problem in case the price closes below 1.5260 opening gated to re-testing of the previous low at 1.5170 and later at 1.5090, 1.5040, and 1.4900.

The intraday resistance is seen at 1.5465, 1.5525, and 1.5550. The support is found at 1.5400 and 1.5360. We do not expect the Fed to deliver a new approach to the rate hike favoring bullish view on the cable. Selling is likely to arrest around 1.5350.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 08, 2015

After a landslide referendum victory, the eurozone respected the result, but the ECB has tightened the liquidity conditions for the Greek banking system.

The eurozone's leaders will meet in Brussels to discuss the Greek issue. Besides, the heads of 28 Member State will attend the summit scheduled for the Sunday to come.

We are approaching big events. The Eurogroup's meeting and the FOMC meeting minutes release might increase today's volatility.

Technical view: the pair is trading below the 20Wsma and all daily moving averages. The nearest resistance is seen at 1.1020 and 100Dsma is found at 1.1040. The weekly resistance is seen at 1.1121, 1.1150, and 1.1280. Until the pair closes below 1.1280, gates are open for 1.0800 initially, 1.0600 and 1.0500 later. The long-term picture favours moving to the sub-level of 1.000.

At yesterday's session, we forecasted "A daily close below 1.1040 made bulls lose 1.0950 immediately. The real selling emerges below 1.0950 towards fresh lows, made low at 1.0916. The pair has been moving towards lower highs and lower lows in the H1 and H4 chart.” All these factors favor bears.

Developments in Greece are the only driving factor during this week.

Intraday: the pair is trading at 1.1000 compared to Tuesday's closing price of 1.1012. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1020, 1.1050, and 1.1100. Small buying trade is available above 1.1030 with targets at 1.1050 and 1.1090, which looks risky. Safe buying is available above 1.1125 with targets at 1.1150 and 1.1170. Strong bears can start selling between 1.1100 and 1.1150 sl 1.1200. At yesterday's session, we advised selling below 1.1000 towards 1.0960, 1.0930, and 1.0900. In the four-hour chart, we can observe mild positive divergence indicated moving slightly upwards before further decline. In the extreme case, the pair is likely to stretch up to 1.1100 or 1.1120. Use any rise to sell. Today's trade is likely to be driven by the Eurogroup's meeting outcome and the FOMC meeting minutes.

Intraday fresh selling is available below 1.0970 with targets at 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0880, 1.0850, and 1.0800 during a day.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 08, 2015

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When the European market opens, no economic data is due in the eurozone, but the US will unveil figures for the Consumer Credit m/m, FOMC Meeting Minutes, 10-y Bond Auction, and Crude Oil Inventories. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1060.

Strong Resistance:1.1054.

Original Resistance: 1.1043.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1032.

Target Inner Area: 1.1006.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0980.

Original Support: 1.0969.

Strong Support: 1.0958.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0952.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 08, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Bank Lending y/y, and Current Account. The US will publish economic data about Consumer Credit m/m, FOMC Meeting Minutes, 10-y Bond Auction, and Crude Oil Inventories. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 122.79.

Resistance. 2: 122.55.

Resistance. 1: 122.31.

Support. 1: 122.02.

Support. 2: 121.78.

Support. 3: 121.54.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 8, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair is weak. Following Monday's rally in the context of a downtrend, the market has been coming down gradually. The support line at 1.0950 had been battered before the price bounced upwards. With further weakness in the market, the support line would be battered again and get broken.

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USD/CHF: Normally, this currency trading instrument would go in the opposite direction to the EUR/USD. Therefore, the instrument will maintain its bullish outlook as long as the EUR/USD pair is weak.

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GBP/USD: Following the initial bullish attempt on the cable, the price has gone south by roughly 200 pips. There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart now: the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. More selling pressure is expected.

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USD/JPY: The situation is still the same. The market is currently a market in which short-term traders and scalpers thrive. Short-term swings took place in the market as the price oscillates between the supply level at 124.00 and demand level at 122.00. There is a need for a breakout above the aforementioned supply level or demand level before there could be a strong directional movement.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair is in a bearish trend today. Following Monday's rally in the context of a downtrend, the market has been coming down gradually. The demand zone at 133.50 has been tested and it is lukely be tested again. It could even be breached to the downside.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 07, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting the six-week low of 121.72 on Monday. It is undermined by the flows to the safe-haven yen amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 1.31% to 17.01, S&P 500 closed 0.39% lower at 2,068.76 overnight) as fears mount over eventual Greece's exit from the eurozone. Sunday's referendum showed 61.3% of Greek voters rejected austerity terms demanded by creditors in exchange for further aid. Monday's sell-offs in many riskier assets were not as large as many investors had feared. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower US Treasury yields (10-year fell 10.0 bps to 2.290% Monday) and Japan's exports. But USD/JPY downside is limited by the demand from the Japanese importers and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.80. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 121.40. The pivot point stands at 122.90. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.35 and the second target at 123.70.

Resistance levels: 123.35 123.70 124

Support levels: 121.80 121.40 121

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 07, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in a lower range. It is undermined by the franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF cross and higher-than-expected Switzerland June CPI of +0.1% on-month, -1.0% on-year (versus forecast -0.1% on-month, -1.2% on-year). But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention and the negative Swiss interest rates.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing, but stochastics is bearish at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9515 and the second target at 0.9540. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9390 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9360. The pivot point is at 0.9430.

Resistance levels: 0.9515 0.9540 0.96

Support levels: 0.9390 0.9360 0.9315

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