Daily analysis of Silver for November 18, 2015

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Overview

The silver price showed negative trading yesterday. Our first main target is at 13.96. We expect a stronger decline on an intraday and short-term bases supported by the negative pressure by the EMA50. Breaking the mentioned level will extend the bearish wave to 13.50 followed by 13.00. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period unless we witnessed a clear breach and holding with a daily close above 14.85. Breaking the mentioned level will open the way towards 13.50 then 13.00, conditioned by holding below the 14.85 level.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 18, 2015

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Overview

The outlook for the GBP/JPY pair did not change. A price action from 180.36 is viewed as a consolidation pattern with a choppy rise from 180.64 as the third leg. Strong resistance is expected at 188.28 to limit the upside and finish the consolidation. Movements below the 184.25 support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 180.36 first. A break of 180.36 will extend the whole fall from 195.86 and should then target a test at the 174.86 key support level. GBP/JPY was close to the key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the 200 psychological level. A break of 174.86 will confirm a trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we will be cautious about strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 to bring the reversal finally.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 187.07; (P) 187.53; (R1) 188.20

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Gold : analysis for November 18 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,064.70. According to the daily time frame, I found a strong downward bar in a high volume. Our strong support around the level of $1,075.00-$1,080.00 became strong resistance (changing polarity) now. According to the M5 time frame, I found a volume spike on an up bar (buying climax) in the background and potential intraday distribution trading range. Selling opportunities are preferable. Support level is found at $1,064.50.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,079.00

R2: 1,084.00

R3: 1,091.60

Support levels:

S1: 1,064.85

S2: 1,060.50

S3: 1,052.80

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold since the price has broke our major support level. Watch for potential selling opporutnities.

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EUR/NZD analysis for November 18, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.6470. I am waiting for larger activity and stronger price action. The short-term trend is still neutral, but the intraday trend is upward. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD before a breakout of the key support level takes place. In the the daily time frame, we can see a weak supply bar in an average volume. A high-volume breakout at the level of 1.6590 will confirm further upward movements. I found a point of control from yesterday (high volume area) around the price of 1.6460-1.6500. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.6860, Fibonacci retracement 50% at the level of 1.7080 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.7295. According to the M30, I found supportive nature of volume and intraday upward behavior. So, be careful when selling at this stage because we may see potential recovery in the euro. Anyway, the strong support at 1.6150 may become the strong resistance once it gets broken.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6500

R2: 1.6520

R3: 1.6550

Support levels:

S1: 1.6440

S2: 1.6420

S3: 1.6390

Trading recommendations: Selling looks risky at this stage so watch for potential buying opportunities on an intraday basis. Selling opportunities are preferable only if the price breaks the level of 1.6150.

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Global macro overview for 18/11/2015

Global macro overview for 18/11/2015:

The API crude inventories data was released yesterday and it crushed the market expectations. The draw of -482k barrels was way below the market participants expectations of 1,800k barrels. The price of the crude oil stubbornly trades above the $40 level despite the global supply glut. Even the recent French and US airstrikes in Syria did not affect the crude oil price much, but it is maybe too soon to draw any important conclusions.

After the yesterday inside bar candlestick formation, the crude oil is still trading within a typical daily range. The next support is seen at the level of 40.08 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 42.58.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 18, 2015

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair is still moving between 1.3217 and 1.3382. The resistance has been set at the prices of 1.3382 and 1.3456. Therefore, it will be very profitable to sell below the price of 1.3382, which represents the ratio of 88.2% Fibonacci retracement levels with the first target at 1.3264. Then, it will continue towards 1.3217 in order to test this strong support (61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels). On the other hand, if the trend fails to close below the support of 1.3217/1.3200, buy above the price of 1.3200 with a target at 1.3322, then at the price of 1.3390 in order to test the strong resistance.

Notes:

  • The key level is at 1.3322 (pivot).
  • We expect a range of 93 pips in coming hours.
  • The weekly double top is at 1.3456
  • History will probably repeat itself at this level again.
  • Please check out the market volatility before investing because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 18, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The US indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Food & Staples Retailing, Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment, and Retailing sectors traded higher, while shares in the Utilities, Energy and Consumer Durables & Apparel sectors got under pressure. The DJIA gained 6.49 points (less than 0.1%) to 17489.50. The S&P 500 declined 2.75 points (0.1%) to 2050.44. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4 points (less than 0.1%) to 4986.01. On the economic data front, the US CPI increased 0.2% MoM in Oct following a 0.2% decline a month before. Industrial production decreased 0.2% in Oct same as last month, while economists had expected a gain of 0.1%. The US dollar reached a new seven-month high against the euro after the data release. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 2.626% from 2.273% on Monday. US-traded crude oil fell 2.6% to $40.67 a barrel. Gold prices tumbled 1.39% to $1068.50, posting the lowest level in more than five years.The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which act as support and maintain the upside bias. Furthermore, the relative strength index is above its neutrality level of 50 lacking downward momentum. In addition, a support base was formed around 123, which should limit the downside potential. As long as this level is not broken, look for a further upside with targets at 123.60 and even 124.00.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.60 and the second target at 124.00. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.30. The pivot point is at 122.90.

Resistance levels: 123.60 124 124.45

Support levels: 122.60 122.30 121.60

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Global macro overview for 18/11/2015

Global macro overview for 18/11/2015:

The FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled for release at 7:00 pm GMT and are the most expected macroeconomic event for today as they may cast some light on the central bank's intentions in December. The latest statement was far more hawkish than the markets had anticipated and it send quite a clear message about a possible short-term interest rate hike this year in December. Two weeks after, the NFP report beat all expectations, which satisfied Fed policy makers for sure. Today's Fed minutes might reveal how strong the rate hike consensus is among policy makers as the December rate hike has gone from 35% chances before last months statement to 64% chances now.

The EUR/USD pair is still trading quietly inside the black channel, but it did not manage to close above the 1.0678 resistance level. Only a sustained breakout above the grey rectangle might be considered bullish.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 18, 2015

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair had a breakdown and fell further to as low as 0.7100 yesterday. It has opened at 0.7106 today and the price was placed below 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, the price formed a strong resistance at the level of 0.7158. Furthermore, this strong level has still been moving between 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 23.6% on the H4 chart. Accordingly, the market is likely to start showing the signs of a bearish market again in order to indicate a bearish opportunity in the short term from the 0.7158 level with a target towards the strong support around 0.7041 in coming hours. Meanwhile, bulls will be forced to pull back above the level of 0.7041. Thus, this level will act as a spot to buy in the short term for correction. Therefore, it will be a good idea to buy above 0.7041 with a target at the price of 0.7133 and it might resume to the 0.7160 price in order to form a double top.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 18, 2015

General overview for 18/11/2015 11:05 CET

The market still trades inside the bearish zone, but any new dip is being bought back up. The current wave development is very choppy and full of false breakouts. Nevertheless, first bullish breakout confirmation comes with the breakout of the intraday resistance at the level of 132.19 with the target at the level of 132.80. On the other hand, the bearish breakout confirmation comes with the violation of the 131.11 level with the target at the level of 130.69.

Support/Resistance:

130.44 - WS1

131.48 - Intraday Support

131.81 - Weekly Pivot

132.20 - Intraday Resistance

132.36 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should place buy orders at the current levels with SL below the level of 131.11 and TP, which is open now.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 18, 2015

General overview for 18/11/2015 10:55 CET

The ending diagonal structure for wave c green of alt -v- blue looks completed and now the market starts to unfold another wave progression to the downside. The key level for this structure is intraday support at the level of 1.3269 as any breakout lower will directly expose the low of the old wave b green for a test at the level of 1.3222. Please notice the trend change from bullish to bearish is valid only when the market moves below the level of 1.3036.

Support/Resistnace:

1.3375 - WR1

1.3368 - Intraday Resistance

1.3298 - Weekly Pivot

1.3266 - Intraday Support

1.3250 - WS1

1.3222 - Wave b Bottom

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 1.3368 and TP at the level of 1.3266.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 18, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range as it is supported by a rising trend line. Currently trading at 1.0147, the pair is positively oriented being backed by its ascending trend line. The process of reaching higher highs and lows remains intact, and the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are headed to the upside. They should also prevent any attempts to break downwards. To sum up, as long as 1.0120 (our trailing stop loss) is not broken, the pair is likely to advance to 1.0175 & 1.0210 in coming trading hours.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0175 and the second target at 1.0200. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0075if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 1.0040. The pivot point is at 1.0120.

Resistance levels: 1.0175 1.0200 1.0275

Support levels: 1.0075 1.0040 0.9990

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 18, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.65 challenging its major support at 0.6445. The risk of a breakout below this threshold remains high as the intraday 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downwards, and should call for a new decline. Hence, as long as 0.65 holds on the upside, a further drop towards 0.6420 seems to be on the cards.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6445. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6420. The pivot point stands at 0.6500. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6545 and the second target at 0.6575.

Resistance levels: 0.6545 0.6575 0.6590 Support levels: 0.6445 0.6420 0.6370

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 18, 2015

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The GBP/JPY pair is expected to trade with a bullish bias. A support base at 131.20 was formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The pair is expected to post a rebound as the intraday relative strength index is mixed to bullish. The further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 188 at first. A breakout above this level would call for further advance towards 188.40.The

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 188 and the second target at 188.40. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 186.50 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 185.95. The pivot point is at 186.90.

Resistance levels: 188 188.40 189

Support levels: 186.50 185.95 185.30

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USDX technical analysis for November 18, 2015

The US dollar index remains in a bullish trend but it is very fragile. There are many signs that a reversal could start any time soon, so it is preferred for bulls to raise their stops and protect their profits.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The US dollar index is trading inside a bullish channel and is above the daily cloud. Daily support is found at 98.80 and next one at 96.77. So, a daily close below 98.80 will open the way to a short-term correction lower. Crucial support for bulls is seen at 93.80.

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The weekly chart shows that this week's candle is testing the important resistance area around the previous highs. A new higher high is very probable but bulls should be cautious and protect their positions by raising their stops. The trend is bullish, but there are also signs that we must be cautious.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold technical analysis for November 18, 2015

Gold price hit a new low yesterday and remained in a short- and long-term bearish trend. Prices are moving towards lower lows and lower highs. However, the risk reward for going short at these levels is not favorable. It is preferred to stay neutral and wait for the buy signal. Gold is near its end of the bear market.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Red line - resistance

Gold price is trading inside the bearish channel and below the Ichimoku cloud in the four-hour chart. A stochastic oscillator is at the oversold levels providing a bullish divergence, so a bounce towards resistance of $1,090-$1,100 is justified. Downward targets are seen at $1,045 plus or minus 10$.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The weekly chart above shows gold price remains in a long-term bearish trend. The price is below the weekly cloud and tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. The trend is clearly bearish with the lower channel boundary near $1,045. However, stochastics are entering the oversold levels. Once we see the stochastic turning upwards and moving above 20, we should be ready for a strong bounce. This is expected to come within the next 2 weeks.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 18, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair might have finally reached an intermediate high at 1.5470 reversing lower. The pair is already overdue for a corrective drop towards 1.4900 before the rally could resume further. Moreover, there is a pin-bar candlestick pattern as well on the H4 chart followed by a potential engulfing bearish underway now. The aggressive trade setup would be to go short with risk at 1.5500. A conservative way would be to remain flat now. Immediate interim resistance is seen at 1.5470, while support is seen at 1.5350.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive: Stay short with stop at 1.5500, a target is at 1.4900

Conservative: stay flat.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 18, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY remains more or less unchanged from yesterday trading around 131.25 at the moment. Please note that bulls are expected to regain control from here on, but prices need to stay above at least 130.60. At the moment, prices are bouncing from the Fibonacci 0.786 support of a rally between 130.60 and 132.20/30. It is expected to push the pair higher through the levels of 133.20/30. It is recommended to hold on long positions with risk at 130.30. Immediate support is seen at 130.60, while resistance is seen at 133.20.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at 130.30, targets are at 133.20 and 134.70.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for November 18 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has taken stops out yet again hitting a fresh low of $1,063.50 before pulling back. The metal is up again trading above the level of $1,071.00 at the moment. The counter trend rally is due to happen, but we need to see a resistance breakout at $1,096.00 before committing to the long side again. It is recommended to remain flat and await for a further confirmation. Immediate interim support is found at $1,063.00 followed by $1,050.00, $1,030.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,096.00 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for November 18, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver dropped below the level of $14.10 overnight, but is managed to recover trading above $14.25 at the moment. The metal is forming a potential morning star candlestick pattern on the H4 chart that still indicates a potential counter trend rally can take place soon. The metal should break through the resistance line and get through $14.50 to confirm the bullish setup. We prefer to stay long on trades taken earlier with risk at $14.00, but refrain from buying fresh positions until the trend line breaks. Immediate support is found at $14.10 (interim), while resistance is seen at $14.50.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop at $14.00. A target is at $15.00.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 18, 2015

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Wave summary:

A sideways consolidation within a relatively narrow range of 1.6175 - 1.6545 continues as it has been doing for more than three weeks now. We still favor an upside resolution to this consolidation, but only a clear breakout above 1.6545 can open up the upside for a rally towards 1.8020 and higher above 1.9114 in the longer term. However, as long as important resistance at 1.6545 is able to protect the upside, we will stay locked inside this range with the potential risk of one final decline closer to 1.5882 before the correction from 1.9114 is finally over.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6365 with stop placed at 1.6280. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.6325 or upon a clear breakout above 1.6545.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 18, 2015

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY continues to move lower towards the next downside target at 128.78. In the short term, we expect minor resistance at 131.59 to protect the upside for a breakout below the support line at 130.63 confirming a movement lower to 128.78.

In the longer term, the next major downside target to look for is found at 124.54.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 132.09 and will move our stop lower to 131.65. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell EUR near 131.30 and use the same stop at 131.60.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 18, 2015

EUR/USD: There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the EUR/USD chart. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold territiry. In solidarity with the extant bearish outlook, the EUR/USD pair has moved by over 60 pips downward this week. The support line at 1.0650 is currently being penetrated and it could be breached to the downside. The resistance lines are seen at 1.0700 and 1.0750.

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USD/CHF: Since the EUR/USD pair is going further downwards, the USD/CHF pair is going further upwards. The resistance level at 1.0150 has already been tested, and with the continuation of the extant bullish outlook, the resistance level could even be breached to the upside. In case that happens, the next target would be the resistance level at 1.0200.

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GBP/USD: The cable has consolidated so far this week; with neither upward movement nor downwards movement. However, all this is happening in the context of a downtrend, and when a breakout occurs, it might favor the current bearish outlook.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument remains in a bullish mode with the supply level at 123.50, which is currently under siege. That supply level was tested last week and it has been tested this week. At this point, perpetual buying pressure is needed. So, the price could go above the supply level.

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EUR/JPY: This cross has opened with a minor gap this week, and then the price bounced upward on Monday before experiencing the current bearish retracement. The bearish outlook is, nevertheless, valid. This week, movements are likely to be faster and stronger than last week's movements, owing to small gaps that are noticed on some pairs and crosses.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 18, 2015

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When the European market opens, no economic news is due to be released, but the US will unveil economic data on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and TIC Long-Term Purchases. So amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0691.

Strong Resistance:1.0684.

Original Resistance: 1.0674.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0664.

Target Inner Area: 1.0639.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0614.

Original Support: 1.0604.

Strong Support: 1.0594.

Breakout sell Level: 1.0587.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 18, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US economy is expected to deliver data on the FOMC Meeting Minutes, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and TIC Long-Term Purchases. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.06.

Resistance. 2: 123.81.

Resistance. 1: 123.58.

Support. 1: 123.28.

Support. 2: 123.04.

Support. 3: 122.80.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 18, 2015

On the H1 chart, the USDX has been trading above the support level of 99.25, and the resistance level of 99.80 seems to be the closest level in the upside road. A consolidation above it will push the index higher towards the key zone around 100.25. However, we cannot discard a pullback at current levels, because the USDX is looking for a way to fall until the level of 99.25. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.80 / 100.25

H1 chart's support levels: 99.25 / 98.31

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US dollar index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.80, take profit is at 100.25, and stop loss is at 99.37.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 18, 2015

GBP/USD is trying to do a consolidation above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, but there is a strong dynamic resistance offered by this indicator. We should remind that a rally higher will open the doors to the resistance level of 1.5296 on a short-term basis. If the cable does a pullback at current levels, we can see a fall towards the level of 1.5142 again.The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5296 / 1.5365

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5205 / 1.5142

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 1.5205, take profit is at 1.5142, and stop loss is at 1.5270.

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