Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 27, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been moving up since the market opened after the weekend, so the new temporary swing high was made at the level of 1.2857. Moreover, the bulls had broken out from the ascending channel, which is rather another confirmation of the positive sentiment despite the overbought market conditions. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2869 and 1.2900. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2816 and 1.2786.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3215

WR2 - 1.2993

WR1 - 1.2929

Weekly Pivot - 1.2717

WS1 - 1.2632

WS2 - 1.2427

WS3 - 1.2355

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 27, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been moving up since the market opened after the weekend. The new temporary swing high was made at the level of 1.1725 after the market had broken out from the ascending channel. This price behavior might indicate up trend acceleration towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big wave down seen at the weekly time frame chart located at the level of 1.1822. However, the nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1655 and 1.1648. Please notice the overbought market conditions which might result in a temporary pull-back lower.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2024

WR2 - 1.1839

WR1 - 1.1768

Weekly Pivot - 1.1582

WS1 - 1.1509

WS2 - 1.1334

WS3 - 1.1257

Trading Recommendations:

The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540 has been violated, so the EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.1813 - 1.1851. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 27, 2020

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GBP/JPY corrected to a low of 134.97 or just below our second corrective target at 135.09. This should be enough for the next impulsive rally above 135.92 for a rally towards 139.80 as the next major target.

Support is now seen at 135.35 and again at 134.97 that should be able to protect the downside for the expected rally above 135.92 and 136.62 for the expected rally higher to 139.80.

R3: 137.00

R2: 136.62

R1: 135.92

Pivot: 135.60

S1: 135.41

S2: 134.97

S3: 134.75

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUr from 135.48 and we will keep our stop at 134.00 for now.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 27

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EUR/JPY saw a correction to 122.81 which was a bit deeper than we expected, but it doesn't change our overall bullish outlook calling for a retest of resistance at 124.43 soon and the higher towards 125.85 and 129.26.

Support is now seen at 123.31 and again at 123.00 only a break below 122.81 will cause a review of our bullish count.

R3: 124.85

R2: 124.30

R1: 123.87

Pivot: 123.67

S1: 123.31

S2: 123.00

S3: 122.81

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 123.00 was hit for a profit 49 pips. We will re-buy EUR at 123.35 or upon a nreak above 123.87

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AUD/USD is tring to reach 0.7134 on July 27, 2020.

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If we look at the 4-hour chart, we see that AUD/USD is trying to reach 0.7134 as the first target and 0.7184 as the second target. This scenario has been already confirmed as the price is moving above the Moving Average as the dynamic support level. Besides, the Stochastic Oscillator is already moving above the 20-period moving average (the oversold level). Please pay attention to the 0.7065 level. As long as AUD/USD does not retrace and closes below this level, the upward movement from this pair still safe.

The overall bias of AUD/USD now is bullish.

(Disclaimer)

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The USD/MXN is heading towards 22.239: Analysis for July 27, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we see the USD/MXN pair is trying to reach the 22.239 level. If the bearish momentum is strong, the currency is likely to reach the 22.149 level as long as this pair does not retrace upwards and closes above the 22.619 level. If this level is breached by USD/MXN, then the whole downward movement and all the targets will be automatically canceled.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 27, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Gas consumption and Ethereum fees are increasing every day. Although gas charges are not the highest ever (they were in 2018), they have risen sharply since mid-May. The gas charge is used to charge the costs to be brought to the network to execute a specific transaction, and as it increased, users paid higher transaction fees.

According to Wilson Withiam, a Messari researcher, Ethereum "was able to break its previous annual record of total gas consumption in domestic units." This rising cost of gas had two-sided significance for Ethereum, namely on the one hand it meant an increase, and on the other hand it increased the network security budget, the researcher notes. Gas was recorded by ATH in 2018 - these charges are currently only 2,000 ETH lower and could set a new record.

Mining revenues have also risen sharply in the past two months, reaching an all-time high. According to data provided by Glassnode, miners' toll revenues have reached a new peak. The hourly chart suggested that more than a third of ETH miners' revenues came from fees rather than block subsidies. The + 25% sign is a good jump from less than 5% in April. Although miners' fee income increased, this had a negative effect on the multiple of the FRM fee ratio.

FRM relates to blockchain security. Standing at the lower figure between 0 and 10, the FRM suggested that Ethereum could maintain its security budget (miners' income) and not have to rely on an inflation subsidy. Currently, FRM has reached 21.51. In the near future, Ethereum will require high inflation through block award subsidies in order to maintain the current security budget.

Ethereum is stuck in a problem loop: the high price of gas, which also affects transaction fees. DeFi and Tether contributed to the growth of Ethereum - they contributed to user traffic on the network as the daily use of gas also reached an all-time high. However, the high fee scares off potential users, which is not a good sign for adoption.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has broken above the $300 level which was the key mid-term technical and psychological level for market participants. The recent swing high was made at the level of $328.70, but the bulls do not seem to stop just yet as the momentum is still strong and positive despite the overbought market conditions. The next target is seen at the level of $355 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of $320.92 and $300.00. There is only 4 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $435.28

WR2 - $378.51

WR1 - $351.41

Weekly Pivot - $292.40

WS1 - $265.43

WS2 - $206.30

WS3 - $178.38

Trading Recommendations:

The volatility on Ethereum is higher than usual, so all the dynamic moves up and down might reverse quickly. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $365 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 27, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Malaysian Securities Commission (SC) is planning a regulatory framework for wallet providers to be built into existing cryptocurrency laws.

In an announcement published, SC said it wanted to "complement" its existing digital asset exchange and IEO framework by including wallet providers. While the committee did not provide details of what the new framework might look like, such actors play an important role in protecting digital assets on behalf of clients, it said. Digital asset portfolio service providers or interested parties are encouraged to contact the committee to discuss ongoing business activities or provide feedback on the structure. Interested parties should make an appointment before August 14, 2020.

After the sunset date, the legal framework for wallet providers will be added to the national guidelines for digital assets.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken above the $10,000 level which was the key mid-term technical and psychological level for market participants. The recent swing high was made at the level of $10,282, but the bulls do not seem to stop just yet as the momentum is still strong and positive despite the overbought market conditions. The next target is seen at the level of $10,343 and $10,430. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $10,000, $9,956 and $9,922. There is only 4 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,362

WR2 - $10,720

WR1 - $10,360

Weekly Pivot - $9,731

WS1 - $9,314

WS2 - $8,690

WS3 - $8,269

Trading Recommendations:

The volatility on Bitcoin has significantly increased, but still the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 27, 2020

EUR/USD

Last Friday we expected a reversal of the euro to 1.1420 with a 60% probability, but the price chose the growth option with a slightly lower probability. Now, the 1.1735 target (August 28, 2018 high) is open in front of it, overcoming it can provoke an increase to the border of the higher price channel (marked in blue) at 1.1798. But even if the price increases to the specified mark, the divergence with the oscillator will remain. The resistance is strong, we expect either from it, or a little earlier, that the euro will turn into a medium-term decline. Perhaps even below parity.

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The price has consolidated above the 1.1620 level on the four-hour chart, the general trend on the indicators is upward, we expect growth towards the first target of 1.1735. There is also a divergence with the Marlin oscillator, so the rise to 1.1735 can take on such an intricate shape that it is more expedient to wait for the price to consolidate below 1.1620 in order to make sure the divergence is forming and prepare for more reliable sales.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 27, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling crossed the June 10 high at 1.2812 this morning. At first glance, it has a target of 1.2912 at the Fibonacci level of 76.4% before it, but the target may not be achieved, since the price is already showing the first signs of divergence with the Marlin oscillator. Also, on the way to 1.2912, the price has two record resistance levels: 1.2848 - February 20 low and 1.2871 - February 10 low. At the moment, the price is at the lows of November 25-27, 2019.

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The price with Marlin also shows the first intention to form a divergence on the four-hour chart. As already noted, it is difficult to determine further price growth, but if the price consolidates below the Fibonacci level of 100.0%, and coincides with the MACD line at 1.2724, then we can expect a further price decline to the targets of 1.2646 and further to 1.2540, also determined by the levels Fibonacci on the basic branch of the movement December 13, 2019-February 28, 2020.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 27, 2020

AUD/USD

The first thing that catches your eye when looking at the Australian dollar's daily chart is the triple price divergence with the Marlin Oscillator. The pattern is rare, so the probability of a price reversal is very high. A reversal to a medium-term downward trend can take place in the 0.7190-0.7225 range, or in the area of current levels, that is, below the 0.7190 level.

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The price rises after a reversal from the MACD line (indicator blue) on the four-hour chart, this growth branch may be the last one before the reversal. Price consolidation below 0.7075 will become a reversal signal. The first downside target will be the 0.6900 level (September 2019 high). The Marlin Oscillator is slightly above the zero line, its general position can be considered neutral, driven by the price in a local situation.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 27, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair ended last Friday by losing 73 points, just missing the lower shadow to the price channel line of the higher timeframe. This support was tested today in the Asian session (106.63). There are no reversal signs yet, so we are waiting until the support of the trend line has been overcome and further pulling down the price to 105.15 and then to 104.60. The third goal is the 103.80 level, but it is difficult to say whether the price has the intention to attack it as well. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator decreases quickly, accordingly, it will soon enter the oversold zone and create a brake on the downward movement.

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The price has already moved far away from the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, Marlin somewhat slowed down the decline. Perhaps, we will still see the price consolidating at 105.63, but the decline will not be so quick.

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EURJPY approaching support, potential bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 123.110

Reason for Entry: Ascending trend line, 61.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 124.327

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss: 122.392

Reason for Stop Loss: Horizontal overlap support, 100% fibonacci extension, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

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Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the GBP/USD pair on July 27? Plan for opening and closing deals

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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We also have an upward trend for the currency pair, which means that now we need to strictly trade upward (buy, buy-positions). However, the pound sterling is increasingly showing signs of readiness for the end of the upward trend, so we advise you to pay close attention to the upward trend line, which is precisely responsible for determining the trend. If the price consolidates below it, it will mean that it is more and more difficult for buyers to keep the initiative in their hands for the nth time. This means the market is preparing for new sales of the pound/dollar pair. However, as long as the quotes do not go below the trend line, we do not recommend selling the pair.

From the scheduled reports, we can note the same report on orders for durable goods in the United States on Monday. Since this report will affect all pairs that have the US dollar. The offers for novice traders are the same. If at least three of the four indicators of orders are higher than the forecast values, the GBP/USD pair may begin to fall, which will mean the growth of the US dollar (for one pound sterling, the market will offer less and less dollars, which means that the US currency is strengthening against the pound). But no reports are scheduled for Monday in the UK. At the same time, we recommend that novice traders carefully monitor news feeds for news concerning the rate of spread of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States. The longer the current disease levels of 60-80,000 cases per day(or higher) persist, the higher the probability that the pair will continue to grow. You should also pay attention to reports of rallies and protests in the United States. The longer they continue, the more likely it is that the pound will continue to get more expensive. However, if the pair's quotes are consolidated below the trend line, the growth will not be relevant for some time. The market likes to frequently adjust on Mondays, that is, go against the trend. Therefore, the reversal of the MACD indicator down will indicate just such a scenario on the first trading day of the week.

The following scenarios are possible on July 27:

1) If the MACD indicator turns down on Monday before morning, it will mean that the pair has started a correction and it is worth waiting for new purchases. In this case, traders are asked to wait for the MACD to turn up and, if the price remains above the trend line, open buy orders with the goals of 1.2810 and 1.2860.

2) But sales, from our point of view, can be considered only after consolidating the price below the trend line. In this case, the trend will change to a downward trend and the initiative will go to the sellers. The targets are 1.2686 and 1.2636.

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD pair on July 27? Plan for opening and closing deals

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continues to trade according to the upward trend, which is signaled by the ascending channel (indicated in red in the illustration). The fact that the price continues to stay inside it indicates that traders continue to buy the European currency. Accordingly, novice traders are also advised to trade strictly on the trend. The nearest target levels on Monday are 1.1674 and 1.1721. Given that the current price value (at the time of writing) is equal to 1.1655, both goals can be reached as early as Monday. At the same time, no one is ever immune from a correction or change in the trend. For these purposes, the MACD indicator is attached at the bottom of the chart, which is designed to track corrections and movements against the trend. If the histogram (gray columns) starts to fall, and the signal line (red) is located above the histogram (that is, there will be an intersection), it will mean that the EUR/USD pair has started a local correction and may fall to the bottom line of the ascending channel. If the price goes below the ascending channel, it will mean a change in the trend and that the bulls are temporarily leaving the market and it is time for sellers.

On Monday, we advise novice traders to pay attention to the report on durable goods orders in the US. This report is important because this category of goods has a high price, respectively, the sales of these goods are expressed in huge amounts, which are reflected in the final GDP indicator, which is the most important indicator of the state of any economy. For example, if orders for durable goods in June rise more than 1.5% (forecast), it would mean that the US dollar could rise after this report. However, you should be careful, since four indicators will be released at once for orders for durable goods in various categories. Therefore, in this case, today it will be necessary to see how many of the four indicators will exceed the forecast. If the excess is by three or four, then market participants may start buying the US dollar, which will cause the euro/dollar pair to fall. No more news is planned for today.

The following scenarios are possible on July 27:

1) Purchases of the euro are still relevant. Therefore, we advise you to assess the situation on the currency market as early as possible in the morning and, if the MACD indicator does not turn down by then, then open purchases of the pair with the goals of 1.1674 and 1.1721. If it turns around, we recommend waiting for a new turn up, if the price does not have time to consolidate itself below the ascending channel.

2) We recommend selling the currency pair if the price is consolidated below the ascending channel at the end of any hour. This will mean a change in the trend and sales will become more relevant. The first targets are the 1.1549 and 1.1502 levels. The first goal will most likely be reached, and we recommend setting Take Profit near it.

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is advised to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on July 27. COT report. Important! Big traders did not increase their

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair, just like the euro, calmly resumed its upward movement, broke through the resistance level of 1.2755 and almost reached the June 10 high of 1.2812 last Friday. Thus, after a two-day rest, the buyers are active again and ready to conquer new peaks. The upward trend line has once again been rebuilt, and continues to support the bulls. The bears, having made several attempts to gain a foothold below the critical line, again surrendered their positions and can now only rely on the mercy of the bulls, which sooner or later will start taking profits on open longs, which will allow the pair to slightly correct or start a new downward trend.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are again directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe, so there are no prerequisites for changing the trend direction at the moment. The latest Commitment of traders (COT) report for the British pound is alarming. The fact is that the British currency again rose in price during the reporting period (July 15-21), but the most important category of "non-commercial" traders at this time was busy opening Sell-contracts. During the week, non-profit traders opened 4,500 thousand new Sell-contracts and only 3,000 Buy-contracts. Thus, the net position decreased by about 1,500 contracts, which means that the bearish mood among the major players has increased. However, as we have said, the pound was growing in that time period. The most interesting thing is that the "commercial" category also did not open Buy-contracts. Quite the contrary, it got rid of them, closing almost 5,000. The same fate befell the Sell-contracts, which were reduced by 2,500 thousand. Thus, both groups of traders did not increase longs, however, the pound rose in price. We believe that this is a signal for an incipient change in the trend.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair is still reduced to news on the epidemic and rallies from America. No economic information is being received from the UK at this time, and the next round of negotiations on a post-Brexit agreement between Brussels and London has failed, as no one doubted. Well, nothing changes in the United States. The coronavirus continues to rage, rallies and public riots continue to rage, the White House continues to take a too neutral position, US President Donald Trump continues to amuse with his contradictory statements. Most importantly, there will again be no macroeconomic statistics in the UK this week. However, there will be a lot of important data overseas. The main thing is the GDP figure for the second quarter, which may just bury the US dollar, as it is expected to be -35% compared to the first quarter. However, at the same time, market participants could ignore macroeconomic data. Thus, we advise you to pay attention to technical factors this week, the fact that major players do not increase their longs, which means that there may be a trend reversal, as well as to the two most important events of the week – the Federal Reserve meeting and the publication of GDP. Today, a new round of downward correction is still expected, as it has recently become more and more difficult for the pound to grow.

There are two main scenarios as of July 27:

1) The outlook for the bulls continues to be very positive, but at the same time, this week we need to be ready for a downward turn. Buyers reached a high of 1.2812 from June 10. Thus, a downward correction may follow from this level. However, if buyers manage to overcome it, you are advised to open purchases on Monday with the goals of 1.2846 and 1.2896. Potential Take Profit in this case will amount to another 20 to 70 points.

2) Sellers are advised to start considering the possibility of opening short positions with the goal of the Senkou Span B line (1.2623), but to do this, you need to wait until the Kijun-sen line (1.2709) has been overcome and, accordingly, the trend line. The potential Take Profit in this case is about 70 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on July 27. COT report. Key market players continue to increase their

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair calmly continued its upward movement in the afternoon and broke the last resistance level of 1.1631 on the hourly timeframe of July 24. Thus, buyers continue to confidently dominate the market, preventing sellers from even slightly adjusting the pair. At the same time, the quotes continue to move over the (!) ascending channel. That is, the upward movement is also increasing. Based on this, the bulls can continue to build up long positions today, since, in fact, nothing has changed over the weekend. Neither the fundamental background, nor the balance of power between bulls and bears. On the contrary, Friday ended three points off the high of the day (!!!), which means that buyers did not even think about closing part of the purchase orders banally in order to take part of the profit before the weekend, as it often happens in the currency market.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed upward on the 15 minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the short term and no signs of an emerging trend change. Well, the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report showed a major change in favor of buyers. Professional traders (non-commercial category in the COT report) opened 9,500 new Buy-contracts during the reporting week (July 15-21) and at the same time (!!!) closed 8,000 Sell-contracts. Obviously, the net position for this category of large traders, which is the most important and it is believed that it drives the market, grew by 17,500 at once. However, this is until July 21st. And after July 21 ... the euro continued to rise in price. Consequently, non-commercial traders continued to ramp up their purchases of the euro and get rid of sales of this currency. Thus, even the COT report does not give us any reason to suppose the end of the upward trend. Even 36,000 Sell-positions opened by the commercial category of traders did not have much significance, only, that perhaps, they slightly slowed down the euro's growth.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair was absolutely irrelevant on Friday. Business activity indices in services, manufacturing and composite indexes were published in the European Union, separately in Germany and in the United States. European indexes, all as one, exceeded their forecast values, but US indexes – were worse than traders' expectations. But in the first half of the day (when the European indices came out positive), the euro/dollar adjusted, and in the afternoon (when weak US indices were released ), the euro continued to appreciate. This is how market participants reacted to business activity. None, to be precise. Thus, we can only draw one conclusion on the fundamental background at this time. Traders continue to pay attention to the coronavirus epidemic in the United States, to the rallies and protests that continue in many American cities, to the inaction of the authorities in the first case and the powerlessness of the authorities in the second case, and continue to get rid of the US currency. We have already said that the process of increasing the euro's price can stop at any time, since the dollar can not constantly fall on these two factors. However, while all technical indicators on all timeframes continue to indicate a continuous upward movement, there is no point in trying to guess the downward turn and open short positions now.

Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for July 27:

1) Buyers continue to dominate the market. Longs remain relevant with a target volatility level of 1.1743. Thus, it is now recommended to either stay in purchases of the pair with the Stop Loss level below Kijun-sen, or open new longs with the goal of 1.1743, since the level of 1.1631 has been overcome. You can also open new longs on the up signal of some fast indicator, such as the Heiken Ashi. The potential Take Profit in this case is up to 80 points.

2) Bears are still resting and waiting for the bulls to give them at least a chance to take the initiative in the market. Thus, they can only wait for the price to be consolidated at least below the Kijun-sen line(1.1529). In this case, you can try to sell the pair with the goal of the lower line of the ascending channel. You are advised to consider more serious sales after consolidating the price below the ascending channel with the goal of the Senkou Span B line (1.1362). The potential Take Profit in this case is up to 80 points.

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AUDUSD broke above descending trendline resistance! Further rise expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.71070

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, Descending trendline support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 0.71619

Reason for Take Profit: -61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.70872

Reason for Stop Loss: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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AUDUSD broke above descending trendline resistance! Further rise expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.71070

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, Descending trendline support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 0.71619

Reason for Take Profit: -61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.70872

Reason for Stop Loss: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 27. The week after the Fed meeting and US GDP for the second quarter. Boris Johnson admits

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward..

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 129.5589

The British pound continues its upward movement, although for some time it could not overcome the Murray level of "+1/8" - 1.2756. Nevertheless, on Friday, it still managed to do so, and traders continued to trade for an increase, despite the absolutely failed fundamental background from the UK. Because from the United States, it is even more failed. Thus, at the moment, we can draw approximately the same conclusions as in the case of the euro/dollar pair. Macroeconomic statistics are almost irrelevant for traders now. Only the most important reports can affect their mood and be reflected on the chart. Technical factors may have a greater impact on the pound/dollar pair. Or the general fundamental background, which has not changed in recent weeks.

The fundamental background will probably not change in the new week. We do not expect drastic changes in the negotiation process between London and Brussels, we do not expect to calm down at least one of the 4 crises currently raging in the United States. As for macroeconomic publications, there will be none in the UK. The US news calendar also contains potentially important news, which we will focus on in more detail now.

The first thing to note is the report on orders for durable goods in the United States. This indicator will be released on Monday and is quite important, since this category of goods itself has a high cost, respectively, in the aggregate, orders and sales of these goods strongly affect GDP. However, there will be more important events this week. For example, the Fed meeting, which is scheduled for Wednesday, July 29. We believe that this meeting will be absolutely passing, however, it is clearly not necessary to lose sight of such an important event. The key rate is unlikely to be changed, however, anything important can be reported by the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Well, on Thursday, July 30, the United States will publish a preliminary value of the GDP indicator for the second quarter, which, according to experts, will be -34% compared to the first quarter. This value may well "finish off" the US currency. It can only rely on the understanding of market participants that approximately the same figures will be recorded in all countries of the world in the second quarter. Although, to be honest, none of the GDP figures planned for this week is expected to be reduced in this way. In Germany, only -9% q/q is expected, in Spain -16%, in Italy -13%, in the European Union -12%. Thus, after comparing all the figures for the fall in the economy in the second quarter of the EU and the US, the dollar may continue to fall on all fronts of the currency market. By the way, even in the UK, which objectively suffered the most in Europe from the "coronavirus crisis", the reduction in GDP, according to experts, may be 20% compared to the first quarter. True, this indicator will be published only on August 10, but nevertheless. Thus, quite unexpectedly, the United States becomes almost the main outsider in 2020 in economic terms. Earlier, we were wary of the words of Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey, who predicted serious cuts to their economies this year. However, it is really necessary to worry about America, and not for European countries.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson gave an extensive interview to the BBC, in which he said that "some things his government could have done differently", answering the question of why 45 thousand people died from the "coronavirus" in the UK. The Prime Minister admitted that initially his government misjudged the COVID-2019 virus and failed to correctly assess the scale of the threat to the British. However, Johnson was not completely frank with the interviewer and did not clearly analyze the government's actions in the first months of the pandemic. According to Johnson, "there will still be time for this, but in the meantime, we need to focus all our efforts on a possible second wave of the disease this fall and winter". Well, as expected, Johnson was immediately criticized by the British opposition. "Boris Johnson has finally admitted that his government has done a poor job of responding to the coronavirus. It took too long to recognize the threat of the virus, too long to introduce lockdown, and too long to take the crisis seriously, " said health Minister Jonathan Ashworth. Asked specifically if it was too late for the government to impose a quarantine, Johnson said: "We didn't understand the virus enough in the first weeks and months. We didn't see how widespread it spread asymptomatically from person to person." In addition, Johnson is fiercely criticized for missing 5 meetings of the emergency government committee in January and February, after selling a batch of personal protective equipment to China, and in April, these very protective equipment was not enough in British hospitals.

Thus, this week, the first place will be taken by US GDP data, the Fed meeting and technical factors. The pound/dollar pair may well continue to grow, and only strong news from overseas or banal saturation of traders with sales of the US currency can stop the process of falling. By the way, at the moment, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair came close to the previous local maximum – 1.2812. This level can become a rather serious obstacle to further strengthening of the British pound. And vice versa. If buyers manage to push through this level, the upward movement can potentially continue to the next high of the past – 1.3199. And this is a serious strengthening of the British currency, which has not been observed since the fall of last year, when the pound grew on expectations of the imminent completion of Brexit, as first Boris Johnson won the election, and then the Conservative Party. Then the pound rose by about 15 cents, now - by 14.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 106 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Monday, July 27, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2684 and 1.2896. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will indicate a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2753

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is recommended to continue trading for an increase with the goals of 1.2817 and 1.2896 (the level of volatility on Monday), until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Short positions can be considered after fixing the price below the moving average with the goals of 1.2634 and 1.2573.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 27. 100 days of Donald Trump. The entire American public is waiting for "surprises" from

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 122.7900

The EUR/USD currency pair as a whole continues to trade with an increase, absolutely not breaking the upward trend, which is supported by the moving average line and two linear regression channels. Thus, during the past week, absolutely nothing has changed, from a technical point of view. As for the macroeconomic background, there was very little of it last week. Almost all published macroeconomic reports were ignored, and market participants continue to be much more interested in the "coronavirus" epidemic in the United States and the scale of its spread than in economic figures.

The new trading week will be quite interesting. However, with the slightest analysis, it becomes clear that the macroeconomic background will again not be a priority for traders. Even the Fed meeting that will take place on Wednesday is unlikely to cause any market reaction, since it will most likely become completely passable. At least, no one expects the Fed to make a drastic change in the parameters of monetary policy. Several reports will be published immediately on Monday in the European Union, Germany and the United States. If European reports can be safely ignored, since they are unlikely to have any impact on the currency market, then American reports are extremely important. We are talking about changing the volume of orders for durable goods. In addition to the main indicator, three more derivatives will be published: excluding defense orders, excluding transport orders, and excluding defense and aviation orders. In fact, it does not matter what a particular indicator will be. It is important that overall forecasts are exceeded. Important for the US dollar. The US currency is now in such a state that it needs good reasons for traders to stop selling it. And it is unlikely that support for the US currency should be expected from macroeconomic reports. However, in the case of really strong numbers, the US currency can get some support.

While the US currency is stalling and can't find support, there are exactly 100 days left until the US presidential election. Perhaps never before in America has there been such a stir around this process. According to many publications, in a little over three months before the election, Trump is very much losing to Biden in the ratings. In general, voters are not satisfied with the work of the presidential administration in countering the pandemic and in the conditions of mass unrest. However, in the last election in 2016, Trump was also an outsider. As shown by more in-depth research that takes into account the specifics of the US electoral system, Biden wins about 100 "electoral votes" from Trump. To win the election, 270 such votes are required and Biden already has 222 at his disposal. Most importantly, states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are now ready to give their votes to Biden, even though they voted for Trump in 2016. And this is the loss of 5 states at once and a huge number of "electoral votes". After all, for example, Texas is also changing its mind and is going to vote for Biden despite the fact that it is a native "Republican state". Nevertheless, the huge number of cases of "coronavirus" makes its own adjustments to the mood of the electorate.

Well, most of all, there are doubts about Donald Trump among people who systematically track his statements and follow his speeches. We have repeatedly listed almost the entire list of Trump's statements about the "coronavirus". This salad is absolutely opposite in meaning and essence statements can confuse just about anybody. However, these statements were made not by a mental patient, but by the president of the country with the largest economy in the world, who also says in the last two weeks that his main rival Biden will not be able to pass an IQ test. This is not a test that we all know that really measures IQ, but a test that simply shows that there are no abnormalities in development. In fact, any teenager can pass this test, since most of the questions in it are elementary, and we are left to wonder whether Trump tried to prick Biden as much as possible in this way, or did not see this test in his own eyes?

Wearing masks in a pandemic is also confusing, according to Trump's rhetoric. The President of the United States openly refuses to wear a mask, without setting any example to the Americans, then the president offers to wear a mask in public places, and he boasts that he looks like a hero of westerns in a mask. Everything is complicated for Trump and with protesters across the country. At first, Trump wanted to disperse all the rioters almost with the help of the regular army, which has not happened in the history of the country yet. Then Trump criticized the authorities of all cities and states where it was not possible to suppress the protests (which are generally allowed under American law), then he supported the protesters several times, and then sent several security forces to Portland. Now in Portland there are not just protests and rallies, now there are clashes with the police, security forces and even greater riots than there were before the arrival of Trump's special forces. Not surprisingly, protesters across the country had slogans calling for Trump's resignation.

The only really strong trump card in Trump's hands is the economy. Not surprising, given that Trump is a businessman. Most Americans would strongly trust the economy to Donald, not Joseph. Unfortunately, this is the only area in which Trump leads unconditionally. However, many experts also note that Trump is not going to win the usual way. Most likely, Trump's strategy will again be to win in those states where it is most likely, with a furious run with those states where voter opinion fluctuates. That is, Trump is not going to fight for victory in all states. Rather, he will try to win the states he needs, which will be enough for the overall victory. Plus, we should not forget that America is currently in chaos, crises, unrest and discord. That is exactly the element in which Trump feels like a fish in water. Therefore, it is absolutely possible that we will witness a huge number of surprises in the elections.

The US dollar remains under market pressure. And it can only count on support either due to technical factors (the markets will simply get enough of the pair's purchases), or due to a strong fundamental background (which is not even looming on the horizon yet).

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 27 is 88 points and is still characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1567 and 1.1743. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a turn of a downward correction within the framework of an upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1597

S2 – 1.1475

S3 – 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1719

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to strengthen its upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in purchases of the euro currency with the goals of 1.1719 and 1.1743, until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down (1-2 bars of blue color). It is recommended to open sell orders no earlier than when the pair is fixed below the moving average line with the first target of 1.1353.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Boris Johnson's prospects as prime minister and the future of Great Britain

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24 July - exactly a year since Boris Johnson won the election of prime minister. During this time, much has changed in the world, in the UK. The only thing that hasn't changed is Johnson's desire to leave the European Union as quickly as possible and build a new, independent Britain.

Throughout the entire term of Boris Johnson's rule, we have repeatedly analyzed his actions, the decisions he made, and also looked forward to the victories of the current prime minister. Each analyst, expert and political scientist has his own point of view. We believe that Johnson's victories as prime minister can be counted on the fingers of one hand. On the one hand, Johnson did not become such a destructive figure for the world community and a violator of harmony as Donald Trump. Nevertheless, there are no significant victories in Johnson's career yet. Here anyone can immediately object to us. They say that Johnson still brought Brexit to the end, now the UK will still leave the European Union, an epic that could have lasted for years under other leaders ended quickly enough under Johnson. However, we fundamentally disagree with this interpretation and formulation of this problem. First, the decision to leave the EU was made by the British citizens themselves. Whether this referendum was fair or not, whether all residents voted or someone forgot to do it, it doesn't matter anymore. The people of Britain have expressed their desire to leave the EU. Thus, logically, it would have to happen anyway sooner or later. Secondly, from the very beginning, Brussels and London negotiated the most lenient divorce so that neither the EU economy nor the UK's economy would suffer. This was the main goal of the UK government, which was entrusted with the implementation of Brexit. You don't need to have a lot of intelligence just to sever all ties with the EU and start from scratch. Anyone could handle this, even a plumber from the nearest housing office. But to make sure that the British economy suffered minimally from the break with the EU, for this you need leadership qualities, the ability to negotiate, the ability to yield. Johnson did not demonstrate all these qualities during the year of his premiership. At first, just like Theresa May, he failed to agree with Parliament and did not find anything better than to simply dissolve it. The courts began, which Johnson lost, Parliament was reconvened, and thanks to the prime minister, a shadow fell on the Queen of England Elizabeth II, who, in fact, gave the go-ahead for the dissolution of Parliament. As a result, new battles began in Parliament, during which Johnson was unable to convince anyone of the need for a "hard" Brexit. Only Nigel Farage's Brexit party, created just a year before these events, supported Johnson. As a result, everything came to the parliamentary elections, which Jeremy Corbyn lost. In fact, it was Corbyn, who has long been accused of lacking a clear position on Brexit, who did not create real competition in the elections. The people of Britain did not vote for the Conservatives this time. They voted for the early completion of this "Marlezon ballet", which lasted for four years. Therefore, it cannot be said that the Conservatives defeated Labour and other parties thanks to Johnson's charisma and leadership, his position on Brexit. They won the election simply because the people of Great Britain were simply tired of living in constant limbo. Well, then, as soon as Johnson received full and unconditional power in the country, he immediately announced that the "transition period" would not be extended, and Brussels and London should agree on everything in nine months, or there would be no deal between them at all. And he gave the command to David Frost, who is negotiating with Michel Barnier, not to yield to Brussels on the most important issues. As a result, the negotiations, which could not end in anything worthwhile, even if the parties had been actively working on them for all nine months, hit a dead end literally in the very first month. And they are there to this day. Johnson's last loud statements concerned the fact that he himself would personally travel to Brussels and try to agree on everything with Ursula von der Leyen and other EU leaders. However, until now Johnson has not gone anywhere, and Barnier is already tired after each round of negotiations to declare that London does not make any concessions and is not eager to sign an agreement at all. As a result, Britain returned to Johnson's original plan - a complete severing of all ties and agreements and a hard Brexit.

And what is the result? There is no agreement with the EU. There is no agreement with America. Brexit will be as hard as possible. Trade will be conducted with the EU under WTO rules starting in 2021. Coronavirus has dealt another blow to the British economy, so that its losses will be the highest among the EU countries. But it is Johnson's government that is accused of being at least a month late with the quarantine and not taking COVID-19 seriously from the very beginning. Thus, now we can safely say that Johnson, of course, implemented Brexit, but, in fact, did not transform Britain in any way. Moreover, the British prime minister managed to spoil relations with Scotland, which now wants a second referendum on independence and return to the EU. And there is no doubt that Nicola Sturgeon will continue to push this desire in London. And there is no doubt that relations between Scotland and England will deteriorate, because the situation is quite logical: the majority of the Kingdom's inhabitants live in England; if the whole of England votes "for" leaving the EU, then the opinion of the Irish, Scots and Welsh will not even be needed; however, the residents of these countries did not decide to leave the EU, so the claims are quite justified.

Therefore, the future of the British pound remains very vague and uncertain. So are the prospects for the British economy. One is good for the pound. In recent months, there has been such chaos in the US that investors and traders have forgotten about all the British problems and switched to selling the US currency on all fronts. However, this cannot go on forever. At least, it seems that way at the moment.

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Recommendations for the GBP/USD pair:

The pound/dollar pair continues its upward trend, so we recommend continuing to buy it using mainly the 4-hour timeframe. Volatility remains the same, about 100-130 pips per day, and is comfortable for trading. The nearest targets for buy orders are located around $1.28, then quotes can continue to grow up to 31 figures. Questions are raised only by the fundamental background, which the British pound supports today, but tomorrow it may stop doing this, since, as we have already said, there are a great many economic problems in Britain.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. The world is on the verge of a global US-China confrontation

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In the past two years, only the lazy one has not paid attention to the confrontation between China and the United States. There has always been hostility between major and superpowers. That's not news. However, from time to time, relations heat up and then the whole world freezes in anticipation of events and their consequences. Now is the time. In general, 2020 can be called the year of cataclysms and emergencies. Now even the trade war between China and the United States, which began back in 2018, does not look like something serious. Not to mention the Ebola virus and the swine flu epidemic. However, we have to keep looking ahead and keep asking questions, what will the world expect in the near future? Because the answers to these questions will also suggest what the currency market is waiting for.

The conflict between the United States and China continues to heat up. The parties have accumulated too many claims against each other. Moreover, if earlier these claims came mainly from the US and were more of a verbal rather than effective nature, now both sides are actively imposing sanctions against each other and accuse each other of all mortal sins. The most interesting part is that there is no evidence of guilt of one or the other. And it is absolutely certain that no one will ever provide this evidence to the broad masses. That is, in fact, the truth does not matter, because the truth is a relative concept. In every conflict, each side has its own truth. There is one truth. But when the national interests and the future of the country is the priority, the truth does not matter. The main thing is to win, to win in this confrontation, in this war. This is exactly what happens constantly between all the big (and not large) players. At this time, the whole world is trying to recover from the "Chinese" virus. Moreover, the virus was somehow defeated too quickly in China itself, or the Chinese government is openly hiding a lot of what is happening now on their territory. Considering that China is one communist party, it is not at all surprising if the coronavirus is also present in the PRC, it is just that the government is hiding this information from the whole world. Actually, Washington is accusing Beijing of withholding information. And in collusion with the World Health Organization, which the US has already cut ties with. Now, who can say how, why, and under what circumstances the virus left the lab in Wuhan? Who can say with certainty that it was an accident or vice versa? However, it is also impossible to deny the fact that China is to blame for this, since it was from its laboratory that the virus "escaped". And now the whole world quite reasonably can and should bill China. True, it is not clear in what form it will be. In international law, there are no articles and laws that would determine the procedure for action and penalties in such a global event as an epidemic. However, one thing is an incomprehensible and unexplored virus that came out of nowhere. The other is a laboratory-created virus that has broken free. Thus, the whole world has the right to make claims to China.

The second very important and controversial point is Hong Kong. And here, too, the US is not the only one who has claims. The United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, and Australia also have complaints over the Chinese government's violation of Hong Kong's autonomy. Of course, this is not a question of coronavirus issue, but more and more experts are beginning to note that China has begun to violate the principles of international law too often and grossly, and the damage that COVID-2019 has caused to the entire world is generally difficult to calculate. All this can, on the one hand, lead to a serious conflict between the US and China, including disconnecting the latter from the SWIFT international payment system, introducing new portions of sanctions and duties, a diplomatic war, and so on. On the other hand, the whole world can turn against China, or at least the most developed and powerful countries that can afford to cut ties with China or at least reduce their dependence on Chinese imports. Two points should also be noted here. First, more and more political scientists believe that China has set a course to become the only superpower in the world. Second, the United States has set a course to form a coalition against China. Of course, neither Donald Trump nor XI Jinping will publicly declare such intentions. However, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who met with Dominic Raab in London this week, has already begun to hint at the creation of an anti-Chinese coalition. Pompeo was extremely correct in expressing his thoughts at the press conference, but still noted that the actions of the Chinese Communist party contradict the principles of world law and order and the creation of a coalition can convince Beijing of the inexpediency of such a foreign and domestic policy. Mike Pompeo recalled, in addition to the coronavirus and Hong Kong, the conflict in the South China sea, the standoff between India and China, and attempts to steal intellectual property by Chinese hackers on the orders of the authorities of this country.

The last question is generally very complex and it is not clear whether Chinese hackers made an attempt to steal confidential information about the development of vaccines and drugs against the coronavirus, or whether this was the case of the US intelligence services. Recall that not so long ago in the United States, an employee of the laboratory in Wuhan allegedly escaped from China spoke about the actions and orders of the Communist Party of the People's Republic of China, as well as that of the transmissibility and contagiousness of the virus COVID Chinese government knew almost the very beginning. The speech is interesting, but it is hard to believe that the employees of the most important laboratory in the world in 2020, which attracts the attention of the whole world, were able to get out of China so easily and simply. Now, a press release has been posted on the website of the US Department of Justice, which says that two Chinese hackers have been charged with hacking aimed at obtaining secret information about COVID-19 research. It is noted that hackers have a huge track record. Previously, they stole information and developments from other technologically advanced countries, such as Australia, Belgium, Germany, Japan, Lithuania, Spain, and others.

In general, we believe that the conflict between America and China will not de-escalate in the near future. Moreover, before January 2021 (when the president may change in the United States), the conflict may go so far that it will take years to soften it and return to the levels of relations in 2016-2017. Even if Joe Biden wins the presidential race, it will not mean that relations with China will get better. First, Joe Biden is not the only one who will decide on the fate of China, but there is also the Congress and the Senate, which in any case will be crowded with Republicans. Secondly, it is possible that Beijing itself simply does not want to establish relations with Washington.

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Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair shows that the price continues its upward movement and overcame all resistance levels last week, but no intelligible correction has begun. Thus, buy orders remain relevant, and targets will be formed at the beginning of a new trading week, at its opening. It will be possible to consider selling the pair with minimum lots if the price consolidates below the Kijun-sen line with the first target being the Senkou Span B line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com