Fractal analysis for major pairs on November 9

Outlook on November 9:

Analytical overview of major pairs on the H1 TF:

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The key levels for the euro/dollar pair are 1.2125, 1.2056, 1.1957, 1.1921, 1.1839, 1.1799 and 1.1754. The development of the upward pattern from November 4 is being followed here. Now, a short-term growth is expected in the range of 1.1921 - 1.1957. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to the development of a strong movement. In this case, the potential goal is 1.2056. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2125. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and downward pullback.

A short-term decline, in turn, is expected in the range of 1.1839 - 1.1799. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.1754, which is the support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from November 4

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1921 Take profit: 1.1955

Buy: 1.1958 Take profit: 1.2055

Sell: 1.1839 Take profit: 1.1800

Sell: 1.1795 Take profit: 1.1755

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The key levels for the pound/dollar pair are 1.3389, 1.3307, 1.3246, 1.3088, 1.3052 and 1.2992. Here, we are following the formation of the rising pattern from November 2. At the moment, we expect to reach the level of 1.3246. On the other hand, there is a short-term growth and consolidation in the range of 1.3246 - 1.3307. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3389. Upon reaching which, a downward pullback can be expected.

Meanwhile, a short-term decline is expected in the range of 1.3088 - 1.3052. In case of breaking through the last value, it will lead to a deep correction. The goal here is 1.2992, which is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of an upward potential from November 2

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3247 Take profit: 1.3306

Buy: 1.3308 Take profit: 1.3387

Sell: 1.3088 Take profit: 1.3053

Sell: 1.3050 Take profit: 1.2994

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The key levels for the dollar/franc pair are 0.9067, 0.9048, 0.9024, 0.9007, 0.8977, 0.8935 and 0.8909. The formation of the descending structure from November 2 is being followed here. The pair is expected to decline further after the level of 0.8977 breaks down. In this case, the goal is 0.8935. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.8909. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and upward pullback is expected.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9007 - 0.9024. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The goal here is 0.9048, which is the key support for the downward structure. Meanwhile, we expect the formation of the top of the initial conditions for the upward cycle in the range of 0.9048 - 0.9067.

The main trend is the descending structure from November 2

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9007 Take profit: 0.9023

Buy : 0.9025 Take profit: 0.9048

Sell: 0.9075 Take profit: 0.8937

Sell: 0.8933 Take profit: 0.8910

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The key levels for the dollar/yen are 104.20, 103.94, 103.78, 103.33, 103.05 and 102.63. The development of the descending pattern from November 4 is being followed here. Now, the decline is expected to continue after breaking through the level of 103.33. In this case, the goal is 103.05. Price consolidation, in turn, is near this level. If the goal breaks down, it will lead to a strong decline. Here, the potential target is 102.63.

A short-term rise is likely in the range of 103.78 - 103.94. In case that the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The goal is 104.20, which is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward trend from November 4

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 103.78 Take profit: 103.93

Buy : 103.96 Take profit: 104.20

Sell: 103.33 Take profit: 103.07

Sell: 103.03 Take profit: 102.65

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The key levels for the USD/CAD pair are 1.3166, 1.3107, 1.3062, 1.2997, 1.2901 and 1.2828. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure from November 2. The decline is expected to continue after breaking through the level of 1.2997. In this case, the goal is 1.2901 and price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2828. Upon reaching which, consolidation and a pullback into correction is expected.

A short-term growth, on the other hand, is possible in the range of 1.3062 - 1.3107. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The goal here is 1.3166, which is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure from November 2

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3062 Take profit: 1.3106

Buy : 1.3109 Take profit: 1.3165

Sell: 1.2995 Take profit: 1.2903

Sell: 1.2900 Take profit: 1.2830

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The key levels for the AUD/USD pair are 0.7432, 0.7366, 0.7317, 0.7289, 0.7248, 0.7214 and 0.7178. We continue to monitor the formation of the rising pattern from November 2. Now, a short-term rise is expected in the range of 0.7289 - 0.7317. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a strong rise. Here, the target is 0.7366 and price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 0.7432. A downward pullback is likely upon reaching this level.

In turn, a short-term decline is expected in the range of 0.7248 - 0.7214. If the last value breaks down, a deep correction will occur. Here, the target is 0.7178, which is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from November 2

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7319 Take profit: 0.7365

Buy: 0.7368 Take profit: 0.7431

Sell : 0.7246 Take profit : 0.7216

Sell: 0.7212 Take profit: 0.7180

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The key levels for the euro/yen pair are 124.53, 124.27, 123.88, 123.55, 123.14, 122.71, 122.44, 122.11 and 121.57. The rising pattern from October 30 which is considered as the main structure is being followed here. At the moment, growth is expected to continue after breaking through the level of 123.14. In this case, the goal is 123.55. Meanwhile, there is a short-term growth and consolidation in the range of 123.55 - 123.88. Now, if the level of 123.90 breaks down, it will lead to a strong movement. Here, the target is 124.27. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 124.53. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and downward pullback is expected.

A short-term downward movement, possibly in the corridor 122.71 - 122.44, a breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction, here the target is 122.11, this level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from October 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 123.16 Take profit: 123.53

Buy: 123.56 Take profit: 123.86

Sell: 122.70 Take profit: 122.45

Sell: 122.42 Take profit: 122.11

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The key levels for the pound/yen pair are 139.01, 138.40. 137.54, 137.19, 136.70, 136.27, 135.22, 134.81 and 134.35. Here, we follow the formation of the potential for the top from October 30. A short-term growth is possible in the range of 136.27 - 136.70. Now, we expect the upward trend to continue after the level of 136.70 breakdown. In this case, the target is 137.19. On the other hand, there is a short-term rise and consolidation in the range of 137.19 - 137.54. If the level of 137.55 breaks down, it will lead to a strong growth. The target here is 138.40. As a potential value for the top, we consider the level of 139.01. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and downward pullback is possible.

A short-term decline is possible in the range of 135.22 - 134.81. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the goal is 134.35.

The main trend is the upward structure from October 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.27 Take profit: 136.68

Buy: 136.72 Take profit: 137.19

Sell: 135.20 Take profit: 134.81

Sell: 134.78 Take profit: 134.35

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Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair on November 9. COVID-19 at its record highs. Joe Biden wins the US elections.

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The coronavirus is again at its record highs, especially in the United States and Europe. For several days already, new cases in the US have been more than 100 thousand a day, and in the whole world, the number of new incidents reached 608 thousand a day.

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The US market grew rather strongly last week, especially since Joe Biden won in the US elections. Nonetheless, hardly anything is expected to change radically, mainly because Biden does not really have an advantage in the Senate. But good news is that the US foreign policy will become more solid, particularly on that with Europe and Canada.

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EUR/USD - The euro is close to making a new high. Traders are clearly trying to bring the quote to 1.1920 - 1.1930.

Open long positions from 1.1750.

As for the longs around 1.1860, transfer the stop at a breakeven.

In addition, buy only from a strong pullback, that is, from the level of 1.1840 and not earlier.

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Joe Biden's self-proclamation as US president supports markets positivity

Mr. Biden's self-announcement as US president, which was actively supported by the media, led to a surge in demand for risky assets, crude oil prices, and to the continued weakening of the US dollar in the currency market.

Why is this pattern observed in the markets?

It is because investors already decided that J. Biden will win the elections, and the attitude of this party and its representative to the economic model is significantly different from D. Trump, who wanted to revive the national commodity producer. He sought to force global companies to move their production from Asia and other regions of the world to the US, which caused a war between Washington and Beijing, and eventually caused great damage to the global economy.

Now, the markets believe that everything will return to normal and everything will be like under Obama's term and his predecessors. We should also recall that the economic model consisted of the export of the dollar as a financial asset to the World, using China and other countries, whose production capacities were fully involved in the American production cycle.

Assessing the prospects for financial markets, we believe that this week's expected rally in the stock markets will continue. As a result, the US dollar will remain under pressure, which is due to the demand for company shares and other assets. The USD is experiencing and will continue to experience growth problems due to large-scale stimulus programs that make its supply significant in the financial system.

In addition, investors expect new support measures, which were announced before the election by the speaker of the Lower house of Congress, Democrat N. Pelosi. This looks likely to be passed, which will still put additional pressure on the USD and support speculative demand in equity markets not only in America, but also in Europe and Asia.

It is difficult to say what will be the result of the confrontation between Biden and Trump, since the latter does not want to accept defeat. But so far, the markets are not thinking about it and putting it off for later, which will stimulate the expected weakness of the dollar and the increased demand for risky assets in the short term.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is trading below the level of 0.7300. If this level breaks down in view of continued demand for risky assets, the indicated pair will further rise to the level of 0.7345.

The USD/CAD pair remains under pressure on a wave of rising crude oil prices and a general weakening of the dollar amid demand for risky assets. We believe that the pair can pull back up to the level of 1.3040 and a consolidation below which will lead to further decline to 1.2990.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP/USD for November 9, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market may continue to move up from the level of 1.3154 (closing of last Friday's daily candlestick) with the goal of 1.3238 – the upper border of the Bollinger line indicator (purple dotted line). When testing this line, it is possible to continue working up with the goal of 1.3258 – the historical resistance level (blue dotted line).

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Figure 1 (Daily Chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

  • Indicator analysis - up;
  • Fibonacci levels - up;
  • Volumes - up;
  • Candlestick analysis - up;
  • Trend analysis - up;
  • Bollinger bands - up;
  • Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

The price will try to continue moving up today with the goal of 1.3238 – the upper border of the Bollinger line indicator (purple dotted line). When testing this line, it is possible to continue working up with the goal of 1.3258 – the historical resistance level (blue dotted line).

Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.3154 (closing of last Friday's daily candlestick), the price may start moving down with the goal of 1.3104 – a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line).

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EUR/USD. The battlefield is the courtroom. US elections still set the tone for trading

Biden or Trump? This question has been plaguing the minds of traders over the past week. The dollar index, in turn, followed the (still) current President. Immediately after the voting period, the greenback strengthened its position throughout the market but then began to gradually dive down, especially after the Democrat took the lead in key states Over the weekend, it became clear that Joe Biden is almost one hundred percent likely to become the 46th President of the United States. Therefore, the market opened with a fall in the Dollar. The dollar index collapsed to two-month lows (92.198), showing a downward movement. If this trend continues, the index may also update 7-month lows if it collapses in the area of the 91st figure. All prerequisites for this outcome are already there.

During the election campaign, the Dollar was used by the market as a protective tool. Numerous experts have voiced worrying post-election scenarios, especially if the main candidates get about the same number of electoral votes. During the first day after the vote, this scenario seemed the most realistic: Biden led by a minimal margin, while Trump showed unexpected strong results in many states. Therefore, the day after the election, the Dollar strengthened its position as much as possible, reacting to a possible political clinch. In particular, the EUR/USD pair fell to the bottom of the 16th figure which meant 4-month lows. As soon as the pendulum swung in Biden's favor, the Dollar was hit by a wave a big sell-off, amid increased interest in risk. Over the weekend, it became known that Biden still pulled out a victory in Pennsylvania, thanks to which he gained the necessary 270 electoral votes to win.

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At the opening of trading, the dollar index continued its southern rally and the EUR/USD pair, respectively, headed towards the 19th figure. In my opinion, this trend is not due to the fact that the elections have ended but to the fact that they are de jure continuing.

According to Reuters, Trump does not plan to concede. In the coming days, he will implement a legal strategy for the fight. Representatives of the Republican's staff have already filed numerous lawsuits over alleged election violations. Some judges (in particular, in Georgia, Michigan and Nevada) rejected the relevant claims, refusing to open legal proceedings. However, in Pennsylvania, for example, the justices sided with the Republicans and ordered the postponement of some preliminary ballots and gave Republican observers greater access to the vote count.

We are talking about those votes that came in the mail after election day. The postal votes are the ones to be investigated by Donald Trump's lawyers. The head of the White House insisted that the imperfect remote voting mechanism will allow his opponents to falsify the election results. Now, Trump is trying to convince the judges that his assumptions are confirmed According to the lawyer of the American leader Rudolph Giuliani, representatives of the US President may file up to ten lawsuits in the coming days concerning the elections in the country and the recount of votes. In particular, Giuliani is pushing for a recount of the votes that were cast in the States of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump's team wants to prove that hundreds of thousands of ballots can be invalid.

If last week, dollar pairs reacted to news streams from polling stations, this week, the focus will be on the US district courts. If the judges consistently refuse to consider Trump's claims, the Dollar will continue to lose its position and vice versa. If the will of hundreds of thousands of Americans is questioned, anti-risk sentiment in the market will increase again.

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Despite Trump's formidable speeches, as well as the belligerent intentions of his lawyers, most experts doubt that he can turn the tide in his favor. Although all analysts recognize the fact that the Republican team uses all possible legal levers. At first they will protest vote by mail in the courts of the individual States, and then reach the Supreme court. Most American experts agree that all these lawsuits will not help change the results of the vote. A number of states may have a recount but this will not change the result of the election.

If we talk directly about the Euro-Dollar pair, any more or less large-scale decline in the price should be used to open long positions. The nearest target of the upward movement is 1.1920 which is the upper line of the BB indicator on the daily chart. The main target is located slightly higher at 1.2000. In this price area, it is advisable to cover purchases, as a negative reaction from the European Central Bank is likely to happen. ECB representatives have repeatedly criticized the overvalued Euro exchange rate so the approach of EUR/USD to the psychologically important target will be another reason for the corresponding verbal pressure on the single currency.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on November 9

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Joe Biden's victory in the US elections led to the continued rise of the European currency, and the weak statistics on the eurozone and good statistics on the US labor market did not even limit or halt it, thereby confirming the fact that election results were far more influential in the further direction of the euro and the dollar. Looking at it more closely, long positions from the level of 1.1845 brought about an increase of more than 40 pips, then, after a slight correction, the breakout from 1.1845 led to an immediate recovery in the EUR / USD pair.

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Trading recommendations for November 9

Although Biden won in the US elections, a sharp increase in the European currency was not observed. Perhaps, this is due to the fact that many traders now see fears not in the political ambitions of Biden and the new stimulus package in the US, but in the problems of recovering the GDP of the eurozone and the services sector, especially since the economy could again be seriously affected by the recent new lockdowns. Nonetheless, the bullish momentum still remains, so trades will continue to be with the trend.

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  • Open a long position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1899 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1957. Growth may occur during Christine Lagarde's speech today.
  • Open a short position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1871 (red line on the chart, and then take profit around the level of 1.1814. A downward correction is very much expected, after the strong bull market last week.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

The pound spent the whole day last Friday trading in a sideways channel, failing to move specifically in any direction. Nonetheless, demand for it remains, and in order for it to increase further, a breakout to a new high is needed.

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Trading recommendations for November 9

There is a low chance that today's statements from the Bank of England will affect the rate of the British pound, however, if it announces the central bank's serious intention of not resorting to negative interest rates, demand for the currency will certainly grow very sharply. In that case, the best action is to look more closely at long positions.

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  • Open a long position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3200 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.3254 (thicker green line on the chart). The upcoming speech of Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey may raise the position of the British pound in the market.
  • Open a short position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3166 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at least at the level of 1.3112. Bad news on Brexit will return the downward trend in the GBP/USD pair.
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Demand for risk rose due to the US elections. Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP

The US dollar is weakening after Biden won the necessary 270 electoral votes, while the CFTC report on the dynamics of futures and options gives the opposite picture – investors clearly reduced their short position on the dollar right after the elections. It seems that they assumed that the Democratic Party will either not win or would be completely unconvincing, which will prevent them to launch the expected "blue wave" scenario.

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The situation with the US elections does not look obvious at all, even though Biden was already been announced as the winner and some, especially impatient leaders of other countries, have already managed to congratulate him. Trump, in turn, intends to move the confrontation into Judicial Court, since it was mentioned earlier that there has been some falsification in the results.

There is currently a high possibility that Biden will not receive the necessary legitimacy by the time Trump's term is done. The only way to get out of the confrontation is by colluding with the elites, that is, by agreeing with the Republicans to "merge with Trump" and prevent the case from being sent to the Supreme court.

In this regard, risky assets will be in favor this week, as oil prices are likely to resume and the stock market is likely to grow. A strong market report does not give reason to expect Fed's new monetary stimulus in the near term, but collusion will allow a new aid package to pass through Congress, which will distract attention from the election.

EUR/USD

The euro's net long position sharply declined again, this time by 2.384 billion to 20.552 billion. The euro is steadily rising after Biden declared himself the winner, but apparently, traders did not expect Democrats to win.

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Given the fact that ECB gave a clear signal about preparing for the introduction of another support package at the meeting in December, due to a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases, which forces new restrictions to be introduced, the euro does not have an internal driver for continued growth, but the results of the US elections are still in the leading edge.

The EUR/USD pair broke through the resistance level of 1.1878, but the momentum is weak and more emotional.

On the other hand, the Sentix confidence indicator will be published today, while the ZEW index will be released on Tuesday. Rising fears are expected due to new restrictions, which will put pressure on the euro. We assume that the growth to 1.20 will not take place. It will be stopped in the 1.19750/70 zone and the euro will decline again to the unfulfilled goal at 1.15.

GBP/USD

Although GBP short positions rose by 373 million to 916 million over the pre-election week, the pound feels more confident than before the elections and is likely to continue rising. The pound's fair price is still much lower than the spot price, but we should expect an upward turn, since with Biden's victory, the most convenient scenario for the Johnson Cabinet in negotiations with the EU is being implemented.

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Against this background, Biden's victory for Britain is disadvantageous, as Democrats have repeatedly stated that the trade agreement between the US and UK will not be ratified if the latter's dispute with the EU over Northern Ireland is not resolved. However, Johnson has now a reason to make formal concessions on the Northern Ireland issue in order to get trade preferences with both the US and the EU, and for the sake of such a result, Britain delayed negotiations in order to act simultaneously with the US. Trade talks are due to be completed at the EU summit on November 15, and there is a high likelihood of a deal.

There will be a lot of macroeconomic data that will be released this week, on the basis of which an assessment of the future actions of the Bank of England will be made, which indirectly recognized the need for more active support for the economy, raising the asset purchase program above forecasts.

Technically, the pound will start the week positively. It is very likely that it will consolidate above the resistance level of 1.3177. The goal is resistance zone 1.3250/70.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 9, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been seen rallying towards the level of 1.3182, which is the key technical resistance for the price. It is worth to notice, that the level of 1.3172 is the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down on the daily time frame, so some kind of market reaction is expected here: continuation or reversal. If the up move is being continued, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.3258, if there is a reversal - the key technical support is located at the level of 1.2916.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3631

WR2 - 1.3400

WR1 - 1.3312

Weekly Pivot - 1.3083

WS1 - 1.2991

WS2 - 1.2762

WS3 - 1.2666

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken.

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Analysis and trading signals for novice traders. How to trade EUR/USD on November 9? Plan for opening and closing deals

1H timeframe chart for EUR/USD

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The EUR/USD pair did not start widely expected downward correction during Monday night trading. Moreover, the pair almost immediately managed to update Friday's high. However, it still remains below the level of 1.1903, which we consider very important. The 1.1903 level has been the upper border of the side channel for a long time. Thus, this time the drop looks possible after the pair breaks above this level. From the low of last week, the European currency went up about 280 pips. So, a pullback is simply necessary. As novice traders can see, the MACD indicator has already turned down and it is declining despite the fact that the price is moving up. This is a very complex feature of the indicator. In cases where it cannot grow higher, it begins to run out of steam even while maintaining the main movement. Therefore, the sell signal was formed at the very end of Friday. Whether it will be implemented is a big question. If the pair slides below the 1.1903 level, it may resume the downward movement. Perhaps the situation will change with the opening of the European session, that is, in the next hour.

Joe Biden has won the US presidential election but the US currency has not yet extended any gains from this event. Over the past week, the US dollar has been falling and its weakness was due to the growing tension in the foreign exchange market. Elections always trigger uncertainty across the market until the moment they are over. The national currency tends to become cheaper. However, the election has come to an end but the US dollar is unable to regain footing. Experts say that the greenback is fluctuating as Donald Trump may contest the results of the election. He has already refused to give up peacefully his seat to Joe Biden. He is preparing to file lawsuits against almost all the states where he lost. Legal proceedings may begin in the near future. According to experts, there is almost no chance for Trump to make the court completely review the election results. He did not lose by 10-15 votes. So, even if there were mistakes or falsifications, they were unlikely to change the overall picture. Biden has gotten 4 million more votes. However, experts say that the court proceedings may be prolonged even until January 20 (when a newly elected leader takes power). If by this time the US Supreme Court does not give a clear verdict on the results of the voting, then Joe Biden will not take office as President, while Donald Trump will leave it anyway. Uncertainty persists, which is bullish for the US dollar.

On November 9, the following scenarios are possible:

1) It is recommended to open long seals on the EUR/USD pair. However, it is better to open long positions if the price manages to breaks above the level of 1.1903. Traders should also pay attention to the possible formation of an uptrend line or channel. After such a strong upward movement, a downward correction is highly likely to occur.

2) It is risky to open short deals at this time despite the fact that the downward movement scenario looks more probable. Theoretically, novice traders can try to open short deals given the sell signal from the MACD with targets of 1.1798 and 1.1737. Even now it can be observed that the indicator is discharged. In any case, do not forget about the stop loss, which should be placed above the level of 1.1903.

What is happening on the chart:

Support and resistance levels are the levels that are targets when opening long or short deals. Traders usually place take profit levels near them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the trend and indicate which trajectory should be picked for the current trading.

Up/down arrows show whether traders should open long or short traders when certain levels are broken.

The MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) is a histogram and a signal line. If they intersect, it is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to apply it in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches of some officials and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, when some speeches or reports are on tap, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginning traders should remember that not every transaction on Forex is profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 9, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has violated the 61% Fibonacci retracement level located at 1.1822 again and made a local high at the level of 1.1895. It looks like the bulls wants to test the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.1908 - 1.1914.

If there is a daily candle close above this level, then the road towards the level of 1.2005 is open. The local support for intraday traders is seen at the levels of 1.1850 and 1.1838.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2308

WR2 - 1.2092

WR1 - 1.2015

Weekly Pivot - 1.1812

WS1 - 1.1717

WS2 - 1.1522

WS3 - 1.1441

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. The recent correction towards the level of 1.1612 seems to be completed and now market is ready for another wave up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 9, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

In an announcement Friday, the US Department of Justice demanded the seizure of $ 1 billion from an anonymous hacker.

The department asked the court of the Northern District of California to block approximately 69,370,22491543 Bitcoin, Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin SV, Bitcoin Cash obtained from a suspect wallet.

The court document failed to identify the person behind the wallet, instead referred to him as "Person X", but claims they managed to hack Silk Road and steal the crypto, much to Ross Ulbricht's disappointment. The hacker apparently agreed to the takeover of the funds, which caused the funds to change hands for possibly the first time in five years.

The value of these funds today makes it the largest cryptocurrency takeover in history.

The Justice Department has become much more active in the cryptocurrency space in the past month. In early October, the agency released a cryptocurrency enforcement framework that some have dubbed a harbinger of serious action.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a pull-back towards the level of $14,358 and then bounced quickly back above $15,000. The market is currently consolidating the gains around the level of $15,500 in extremely overbought market conditions. The intraday technical support is currently seen at the level of $15,215 and the intraday technical resistance is located at $15,526. The up trend is still being continued, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $16,000.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $19,307

WR2 - $17,576

WR1 - $16,627

Weekly Pivot - $14,868

WS1 - $13,889

WS2 - $12,207

WS3 - $11,247

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.

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Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair 11/09/20

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market may continue to move upwards from the level of 1.1872 (closing of the Friday's daily candle) in order to reach the upper border of the Bollinger line indicator at 1.1943 (black dashed line). If this line will be tested, the upward movement will most likely continue with the target of 1.2004 - the target level of 161.8% (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

  • Indicator Analysis - up
  • Fibonacci Levels - up
  • Volumes - up
  • Candlestick Analysis - up
  • Trend Analysis - up
  • Bollinger Lines - up
  • Weekly Chart - up

General Conclusion:

Today, the price may move upwards in order to reach the upper border of the Bollinger line indicator at 1.1943 (black dotted line). If this line will be tested, the upward movement will most likely continue with the target of 1.2004 - the target level of 161.8% (blue dashed line).

Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.1872 (closing of the Friday's daily candle) - work down with the target of 1.1848 - a retracement level of 14.6% (red bold line). In case of testing this line, the continuation of the downward movement with the target of 1.1780 - the retracement level of 23.6% (red dotted line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 9. COT reports. Bulls ready to update new highs

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Last Friday, I paid attention to resistance at 1.3154 and recommended opening short positions from it if a false breakout was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down the trades. Several unsuccessful attempts to go above the 1.1354 resistance and returning to the area below it led to forming good entry points to short positions, the main target of which was support at 1.3093. We managed to test it in the afternoon. I also recommended opening long positions from this level. As a result, the bulls managed to catch hold of the resistance at 1.3154 and while trading is carried out above this range, we can expect a new wave of growth in the pair.

There are changes in the futures market, which play on the side of sellers of the pound. However, most likely, the results of the struggle for the US presidency will make a number of amendments to this indicator. The fact that traders closed long positions and did not build up short ones indicated the fears that market participants had before the beginning of the US presidential election. However, the lack of clarity on the trade agreement, together with the lockdown of the British economy in November, clearly did not add optimism and confidence to buyers of the pound. Although the risk of introducing negative interest rates has subsided in the near future, do not forget about such a possibility at the end of this or early next year, especially if the situation with the coronavirus continues to deteriorate.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 showed a reduction in long positions and a slight increase in short ones. Long non-commercial positions fell from 31,799 to 27,701. At the same time, short non-profit positions only rose to 38,928, from 38,459. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was 11,227, against 6,660 a week earlier, which indicates that sellers of the British pound remain in control and have a minimal advantage in the current situation.

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Buyers of the pound need to defend support at 1.3154, its succeeding growth will depend on this. Forming a false breakout at this level in the first half of the day, along with positive statements from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, will lead to another wave of growth for the pound, as well as an update of a new high at 1.3234, a breakdown of which could cause problems. Getting the pair to settle above this range and testing it from top to bottom forms a good signal to open long positions in hopes to rise to the 1.3315 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case buyers are not active around 1.3154, it is best not to rush into long deals. In this case, falling to the support area of 1.3093 will be a signal to open long positions against the trend. I recommend buying the pound immediately on a rebound from a low of 1.3034, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers need to return to the 1.3154 level, being able to settle below it will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to bringing back the bear market. The initial goal is to test the 1.3093 level, however, it will only be possible to bring back the downward correction after intermediate support at 1.3034 has been updated. The 1.2967 level will be the sellers' key target at the beginning of the week, which is where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows in the first half of the day against the background of Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election, it is best to wait until the 1.3234 high has been tested, where a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions. I recommend selling the pound immediately on a rebound but only from the resistance of 1.3315, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a slight advantage for buyers of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a downward correction, the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3097 area will act as a support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 9. COT reports. Joe Biden is America's new president, dollar is in no

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Last Friday, the euro continued to strengthen its position against the US dollar after the vote tally, according to which Joe Biden won the presidential race. However, such news did not cause EUR/USD to rise in today's Asian session and so the pair continued to trade in the area of the 19th figure, which clearly indicates traders' fears about the euro's strength.

This is also confirmed by the weekly report from the futures market, in which a sharp reduction in long positions in the euro is noticeable. Political intrigue in the US is not the euro's core problem. The recently introduced partial lockdown in many European countries, including Germany and France, is quite another matter. The future prospects for the recovery of the European economy due to the second wave of Covid-19 are severely darkened, and no one knows how much the service sector will sink, which forces traders, if not to sell the euro, then clearly choose a wait-and-see attitude, especially after the end of the presidential elections in the United States. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 recorded a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. Despite this, buyers of risky assets believe in the continuation of the bull market, although they prefer to proceed with caution. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 217,443 to 208,237, while short non-commercial positions rose from 61,888 to 67,888. The total non-commercial net position fell to 140,349, from 155,555 a week earlier. However, the bullish sentiment on the euro remains rather high in the medium term, especially after the victory of Joe Biden, who intends to endow the US economy with the next largest monetary aid package worth more than $2 trillion.

Buyers of the euro will be focused on defending the 1.1854 support, which may decline after a gradual deterioration in tensions over the US election results. Forming a false breakout at this level, where the moving averages also pass, will be a signal to open long positions in continuing the bullish trend that we have observed since the middle of last week. An equally important goal for the bulls is a breakout and being able to settle above the resistance at 1.1915, from which a direct road to the highs of 1.1915 and 1.1964 will open. Taking into account that we have no important fundamental data at the beginning of the week, the 1.1854 level will be of great importance. A downward correction is possible if the bulls are not active on it. Therefore, I recommend opening new long positions only after we have updated support at 1.1797, or the 1.1757 level, counting on a rebound of 15-20 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers need a false breakout to form in the resistance area of 1.1915, which will be a signal to open short positions in hopes of ending the bull market and producing a small downward correction. The first target will be a low of 1.1854, but you can only sell below this range when the pair has settled and this area has been tested from the bottom up. In this case, the downward wave will move to a larger low of 1.1797, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be support at 1.1757. If bears are not active in the resistance area at 1.1915, it is best to postpone selling until the test of a new high at 1.1964, or open short positions immediately on a rebound from the resistance of 1.2008, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continued bull market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1905 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. The pressure on the euro will increase in the event of a breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1854 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 9, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

The COVID-19 pandemic has served both as a screening of existing weaknesses in the global financial system and as an accelerator of destabilizing trends, including rising sovereign and consumer debt in emerging markets. At the Central Bank's Club of Governors' online meeting hosted this week by Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina, representatives were unanimous in anticipation of the far-reaching consequences of the current crisis.

At the meeting, 26 central bank representatives gathered from Central Asia, the Black Sea region, the Balkan countries and beyond, also highlighted the pandemic-induced expansion of e-commerce as well as digital settlement technologies. From a central bank perspective, these trends are prompting financial regulators to take CBDCs more seriously than ever before.

At the next meeting of the Club of Central Bank Governors, hosted by the deputy governor of the Bank of Russia Alexei Zabotkin, representatives discussed the increased productivity of financial regulators on the CBDC front during the pandemic.

As summarized in the specifications of the Bank of Russia meeting, participants agreed on the need to assess the potential impact of CBDC on monetary policy and financial stability of countries, as well as the evolution of cyber-threat mitigation procedures.

The meeting reportedly convened not only central bankers from the CIS, Israel and China, but also representatives of the International Monetary Fund and the World Economic Forum, as well as the Bank for International Settlements.

The latter has both participated in and developed detailed analyzes of global CBDC development; for its part, the IMF has worked with a number of central banks on their joint CBDC studies, while the WEF has recently focused on developing the CBDC framework from a transnational governance perspective.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a pull-back towards the level of $425.99, but the market bounced back quickly and keeps trading above the short-term trend line support. The level of $424.65 will now provide the intraday support and the level of $400 will now act as a key technical support. The next target for bulls is seen at the swing high at $466.36. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $594.51

WR2 - $529.18

WR1 - $494.37

Weekly Pivot - $431.37

WS1 - $395.52

WS2 - $336.56

WS3 - $301.67

Trading Recommendations:

The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 9, 2020

EUR/USD

US data on employment came out good: 638,000 new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector against the forecast of 600,000, the share of the economically active population increased from 61.4% to 61.7%, the unemployment rate fell from 7.9 % to 6.9%, dropping to the level of September 2014. Unemployment fell by 53% in six months, which, of course, is a good pace. But the dollar dropped 0.27% on Friday, while the euro rose by 50 points. The business media have portrayed this growth, as well as all of the euro's growth since election day, with an increase in risk appetite and anticipation of a massive stimulus package. But we don't think so. This is far from the same interest in risk that was seen in 2013 or 2017, for example, with big businesses setting the euro exchange rate at 1.32 and 1.15 in each period. We do not know what track the business is interested in, but it is unlikely to be 1.18. We even doubt that corporations need a second aid package. To understand the current situation, you need to dig deeper.

Each so-called aid package is spent by corporations in two main areas: for speculation in stock markets and for takeover of large companies in other countries. US President Donald Trump, according to the Democrats, made the main mistake in his policy - by freezing projects of transoceanic partnerships, he went deep, in particular, in sanctions against individual countries. With the arrival of Biden, one can expect a resumption of American-style globalization (Pacific partnerships), a US-UK trade deal regardless of the outcome of Brexit, and continued expansion of British-American companies to third countries. All these tasks require a strong dollar, not an ephemeral interest in risk, which is used as a cover for banal speculation for the time being.

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The euro has currently overcome the target level of 1.1880, it is possible to reach the MACD line at 1.1915 (daily). Overcoming the MACD line will allow the price to reach the resistance of the upper line of the price channel at around 1.1950. Getting the price to settle below 1.1880 could bring prices back below 1.1830. The bears could aim for 1.1770. No clear direction for today, volatility could also be low.

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Growth occurs when the Marlin oscillator turns down on the four-hour chart. The situation is also undefined. The euro could move in both directions and is associated with an increased risk for trading. Getting the price to settle below the MACD line, under 1.1735, can confirm the downward direction. Speculation in both directions may continue in the coming days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 9, 2020

AUD/USD

Last Friday, the Australian dollar was unable to follow other counterdollar currencies in growth, as investors overdid it in the previous days, outstripping the market, and so the price, having met the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, retreated for technical reasons. The price is still trying to overcome the resistance of this indicator line this morning. Success may stimulate further growth to the upper line of the price channel at 0.7332. Getting the price to settle below 0.7222 will open the bearish target at 0.7120.

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The price continues to rise with the declining Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart. A brisk rise to 0.7332 will make it possible for a reversal divergence to form with the oscillator. Trading is currently associated with increased risk, it is advisable to wait for the situation to clear up.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 9, 2020

USD/JPY

Last Friday, the yen retested the target level of 103.75 from below, and then rolled back a little. US stock indexes are falling correctively, making it easier for the yen to strengthen. The nearest target is 102.75. The Marlin oscillator has grown a little, but its readings are not enough to determine the market reversal, as a price correction is possible, so a correction of the indicator is also possible.

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Meanwhile, the situation is completely decreasing on the four-hour chart. Here, the Marlin oscillator is also growing, but within its own discharge before further expected decline. After consolidation, the pair is expected to decline to the targets of 102.75, 101.95-102.00.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 9. COT report. Buyers need to overcome 1.3160-1.3184 to continue

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair also continued to move up on Friday, November 6, but much weaker than during the rest of the week. In general, over the past week, the pound fell quite strongly. The upward movement was not as uniform and strong as for the euro/dollar pair. Last Friday, the price reached the important resistance area of 1.3160-1.3184 and immediately rebounded from it, unable to overcome it. Therefore, this area is now the key area for traders. If it is overcome, then buyers may continue to put pressure on the pair, and the upward movement will continue. Otherwise (more likely), we expect the quotes to fall, at least within the framework of the correction to the upward trend line and the Kijun-sen line.

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GBP/USD 15M

The linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which fully corresponds to the nature of the pair's movement on the hourly chart on Friday. There are no signs of starting a downward correction yet, at the same time we clearly see two unsuccessful attempts to overcome the 1.3160-1.3184 area, which makes it possible to expect a reversal of the lower channel to the downside in the next few hours and the pound to fall further.

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Take note that professional traders clearly could not decide on a single strategy for trading the British pound in the past few months. They either increase their net position (which indicates the strengthening of the bullish mood), then decrease it (which indicates the strengthening of the bearish mood). At this time, they began to increase the number of short positions, while closing the Buy-contracts (longs). So far, the total number of contracts for the "non-commercial" group is only decreasing, which, among other things, means that non-commercial traders are not too keen to have anything to do with the British currency. Given the purely British background, this is not surprising at all. It is completely unclear as to what will happen to pound in the coming months and in 2021. Thus, it is very, very difficult to make a forecast even for the next couple of weeks based on the Commitment of Traders (COT) report.

Last Friday's fundamental background for the pound was expressed by the same reports on NonFarm Payrolls and the US unemployment rate. And just like in the case of the euro/dollar pair, traders completely ignored this statistics, since they were focused on the political chaos that is now reigning in America. No significant news from the UK. Now we believe that traders should calm down regarding the US presidential elections, and the US dollar should slightly rise, at least as part of a correction. Also, traders can look back on Friday's statistics, which was supposed to support the dollar. But the further prospects for the British pound still look extremely vague. There is still no deal with the European Union, the lockdown will definitely affect the British economy. Therefore, we do not expect the pound to grow further at the moment. However, this is a hypothesis. If the area 1.3160 -1.3184 is overcome, then the pair may continue moving up. No major UK reports scheduled for Monday, but Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech.

We have two trading ideas for November 9:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair cannot overcome the 1.3160 -1.3184 area, which prevents them from sustaining their upward movement. Also, the fundamental background from the UK is not on the side of the British pound. Thus, we recommend buying the pair only if bulls manage to overcome the indicated area, while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3253. Take Profit in this case will be up to 50 points.

2) Sellers do not currently own the initiative in the market. However, in case the price rebounds from the 1.3160 -1.3184 area, you can try to sell the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the Kijun-sen line (1.3032) in small lots, since we have an upward trend. Take Profit in this case can be up to 100 points. You can only take larger sales if we have gone beyond the trend line.

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 9. COT report. Time for sellers. Pair braces for a correction to

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair continued to move up on the hourly timeframe on Friday, November 6 and reached the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912. Buyers failed to overcome this area, so rebounding from it may trigger a downward correction. Moreover, this very correction was brewing for the entirety of the previous week, since after it fell last Wednesday night, the pair has moved up for the rest of the week. Moreover, the pair has reached the 1.1886-1.1912 area, and the upper line of the horizontal channel, in which it has been trading for most of the last three months. Therefore, we would say that now there is an extremely high probability of a rebound from this line and area and also a new round of downward movement. Otherwise, if the bulls manage to overcome this area, then the chances of a new upward trend will increase many times over.

EUR/USD 15M

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The linear regression channels are directed to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, which reflects the nature of the movement on the hourly chart during the past day. However, we might see a downward reversal and quotes could fall in the near future. We clearly see the resistance area, which we mentioned above, as well as several price rebounds from it. After impulsively moving by 280 points last week, buyers did not have enough strength to overcome this area.

COT report

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Recall that the last Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that professional traders reduced Buy-contracts (longs) and raised the number of Sell-contracts (shorts). The net position of the Non-commercial group fell by 17,000 contracts at once. This suggests that the most important group of traders continues to reduce interest in the euro. Most of the past week (when the pair was trading higher) did not make it to the latest COT report. The traders' sentiment could have changed to a more bullish one during these four days. However, we will only find out this Friday, which is when the new COT report is released. If it does not show a strong increase in net position among non-commercial traders, then we will be even more confident that the downside movement will resume.

The US published important macroeconomic statistics last Friday. A very significant report, the NonFarm Payrolls, turned out to be higher than the forecast values (638,000 -600,000), while the unemployment rate fell from 7.9% to 6.9% in October. In principle, these two reports should have been enough for the US dollar to at least slightly rise against the euro. However, market participants were so carried away by the topic of the US presidential election that they did not pay attention to any statistics. As a result, the dollar continued to fall on Friday. However, over the weekend it became known that Joe Biden did win the election, although there are still no final statistics for all states. It's just that Biden's gap from Trump is so large at the moment that the incumbent president no longer has a chance to win back at the expense of the remaining unaccounted votes. Therefore, we believe that the markets should now calm down a bit and the US dollar should start to rise. No macroeconomic reports from the US and the EU on Monday.

We have two trading ideas for November 9:

1) Buyers need to overcome the 1.1886-1.1912 area in order to start opening new buy positions on the pair with the nearest targets at the resistance levels of 1.1936 and 1.2011. If this condition is not met, then at least a downward correction will begin, and, even more so, a new downward trend. Take Profit in this case can range from 20 to 90 points.

2) Bears need to keep the pair below the 1.1886-1.1912 area, only then will it be possible to open short positions while aiming for 1.1791 and the Senkou Span B line (1.1733). Short positions are recommended in small lots, since the price is above the critical line of the Kijun-sen. Take Profit in this case can range from 70 to 130 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 9. Joe Biden was elected as the new president of the United States! Donald Trump is

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 141.9597

Well, a completely crazy week has ended. During this week, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair increased by 280 points in total due exclusively to the US elections. We have repeatedly said that for the US currency, the victory of one of the candidates (any) was not so terrible as the very fact of uncertainty. And I must say that at the moment this factor persists. Yes, Joe Biden won the election. He won quite predictably, but it can't be said that Donald Trump lost "by one wicket". Until the very last moment, Trump was "in the game" and only the last five wavering states decided the fate of the election not in favor of Donald. However, even in these states, he led for a long time and maintained a high chance of a final victory. However, according to Trump himself, it was he who won the election, gaining 71 million votes. He stated this on November 4 and later repeated it. However, for the EUR/USD pair, it is now important that the elections are behind us, which means that the tension should subside a little. As for the technical picture, the pair's quotes once again returned to the well-known Murray level of "3/8"-1.1902, which is also the upper line of the $1.17-$1.19 side channel, in which the pair has been very fond of trading in recent months. Thus, it is possible to rebound from this level with the beginning of a new round of downward movement, which will be logical both from a technical point of view and from a fundamental one.

It should be noted that all macroeconomic statistics from overseas on Friday were ignored by traders. This means that on Monday, market participants can start working it out. The topic of elections can now take a back seat, and the topic of "post-election showdowns" can come to the fore. Yes, everyone was preparing for this scenario, it will not come as a surprise to anyone. In the States, for example, more than 1 million residents have already signed a petition calling for canceling the election results and holding new ones or recounting the votes. It is easy to guess whose supporters this million is. Donald Trump has filed several lawsuits in state courts that also require a recount. So, from our point of view, all the fun is just beginning. First, Trump can now fully concentrate on the war for the US presidency. It is unlikely that a man like Trump will just give up and does not have some trump card up his sleeve. Second, we remind you that the current election results are, in fact, only the will of the American people. The US President will be chosen by the electoral college on December 14. Yes, in theory, they should give their votes to the candidate who was chosen in their state. However, they are not required to do so by law. So there may also be surprises here.

Meanwhile, experts have begun to study the chances of Donald Trump reviewing the results of the voting in the number of states necessary for an overall victory. According to political scientists, this is not just possible in several states, but very likely. First of all, this is an absolutely normal practice for America. Second, in states where the gap between the two candidates is less than 1% (or another value set by state law), a recount will be made even without a request from one of the candidates. Thus, in Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the results may be revised. On the other hand, Trump has gained a total of 214 "electoral votes" so far, and Biden – 290. North Carolina, where there are no final results yet, can bring Trump another 15 votes, and Georgia, where the gap between candidates is only 0.2%. In this case, Trump will get 245 votes. If you review the results of the voting in the states of Wisconsin (Biden's advantage is only 0.7%) and, for example, Pennsylvania or Arizona, where Biden's advantage is also small, then Trump may still achieve victory through the courts. However, many experts also say that the chances of Trump reviewing the results are small. Trump will now be suing the US President-elect, which will complicate any litigation. As practice shows, a recount can work if the gap between competitors is extremely small, for example, no more than 5 or 10 thousand votes. However, there are few such states. That's why Trump doesn't even have a theoretical chance. However, experts also do not doubt that Trump will go to the courts and fight to the last. On the other hand, what did he have to lose? Until January 20, he will remain president of the country in any case. Until then, he will likely use his position as head of state to review the election results. What else can he do?

Well, it should also be noted that some courts in Philadelphia, Georgia, and Michigan have already rejected the claims of the Donald Trump team for a recount of votes, considering the grounds for this insufficient. Trump himself said: "We will legally challenge all states that Biden wins following the laws on voter fraud and election fraud." At the same time, a very wild and discouraging event occurred in America, which best reflects the real attitude of the media and the country's population to Donald Trump. During Trump's speech at the White House, the leading US TV channels simply interrupted the broadcast, and their hosts said live that everything the President says is untrue. Trump said: "If you count the legitimate votes, I win easily. And if you also count illegal votes, you will understand that they are trying to steal our elections." And of course, the Trump team "has accumulated a lot of evidence" of fraud on the part of the Democrats. However, it is unlikely that anyone will ever see them. At the time, Trump also promised to show evidence of China's guilt in deliberately releasing the "coronavirus" into the wild. Experts also report that for the case of a large-scale recount of votes to reach the US Supreme court (where Trump has the support of 6 out of 9 judges at once), the courts at the state level mustn't cope with their task. In general, Trump will go to the courts, but most likely will lose.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 9 is 111 points and is characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1763 and 1.1985. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal a new round of downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1780

S3 – 1.1719

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1902

R2 – 1.1963

R3 – 1.2024

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move up. Thus, today it is recommended to keep open buy orders with targets of 1.1902 and 1.1963 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1719 and 1.1658.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD for November 9-13. New COT report. Traders ignored the Bank of England meeting and failure of Brexit

GBP/USD 24H

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The GBP/USD pair was also trading up last week. However, it is still not as pronounced as the EUR/USD pair. The pound sterling has risen in price by 240 points last week, which is about the same as what the euro gained. Considering that the volatility of the pound has always been higher, it has risen in price slightly less than the euro. However, the overall technical picture is very similar to the EUR/USD picture. In the past few weeks, the pound/dollar has also been moving in a channel very much like a sideways one. However, it is impossible to say that there is a flat for the pound. For the second time, traders managed to gain a foothold above the Ichimoku cloud, as well as overcome the important Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. Thus, the technical prospects open up quite well for the bulls. However, take note of the fact that the pair's growth from last week was purely fundamental, and the foundation in the UK is much worse than the American one. Therefore, we expect the British pound to continue falling next week.

COT report

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The GBP/USD pair fell by only 100 points last reporting week (October 27-November 2). The pound started growing after November 2. And it was more like the dollar fell than the pound rising. However, let's go back to the reporting period. Non-commercial traders closed 3,281 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,146 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for the non-commercial group of traders decreased by 4,500. This point is much more clearly visible on the first indicator's chart. The green and red lines that represent the net positions of the two most important groups of traders began to diverge again. Thus, the mood of professional traders is becoming more bearish again. However, this change did not cause the pound to fall. Because the US election was held on November 3, and since then the dollar has only been getting cheaper. Therefore, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report may show that the bearish sentiment has been weakening among professional traders. However, in any case, we believe that markets need to calm down and only then will it be possible to look at all the information in a new way. Now it is clear that market participants are in a very excited state due to the current political chaos in the United States. Therefore, the mood of large traders can change quickly and dramatically.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair was extremely important and interesting last week. Although traders brushed off a lot of information. For example, it turns out that the next round of Brexit talks, if not failed, did not bring the desired result. This time, the negotiating groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost worked on the agreement for almost two weeks, but after the end of the next round, they reiterated that serious differences remained on the most key issues. In addition, the Bank of England held a meeting and they decided to ease monetary policy by increasing the quantitative stimulus program by 150 billion pounds. Recall that all the central bank's actions aimed at stimulating the economy are considered dovish and do not support the national currency. However, in our case, the pound continued to rise in price despite all the events listed above. Now traders are waiting for the final failure in the negotiations, as well as the introduction of negative rates by the Bank of England. Well, the UK economy is likely to continue to contract. Both in 2020 and 2021. Do not forget that a second quarantine has been introduced in Great Britain. And it will inevitably affect the economy. But as we said, traders ignored all this and only focused their attention on the US elections. Now their mood will primarily depend on the political crisis in the United States and the actions that Biden and Trump will take. The more the threat of a constitutional crisis grows, the more chances that the dollar will continue to fall. But we still expect the British currency to fall in the long term.

Trading plan for November 9-13:

1) Buyers have a chance to form an upward trend. However, we believe that the pair's growth from last week was somewhat accidental or, better to say, purely fundamental. Therefore, we have serious doubts about it moving upward. However, as long as the technical picture does not signal the opposite, you can consider the option of trading up while aiming for 1.3336 as the main one.

2) Sellers lost the initiative because of the US presidential elections. Now they need to return the pair below the Ichimoku cloud in order to rely on forming a downward trend in the long term. We are still inclined to believe that the pound would fall and will be quite strong. But this hypothesis, like any other, needs technical confirmation.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Indicators Ichimoku, Bollinger Bands, MACD.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD for November 9-13. New COT report. US presidential election returned the pair to the horizontal

EUR/USD 24H

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The EUR/USD pair rose by 220 points over the past week. However, such a strong growth does not mean that an upward trend would form. Recall that the EUR/USD pair was trading mainly within the horizontal channel of $1.17-1.19 or its equivalent 1.1640-1.1920 for the last three months. One way or another, a flat was kept all this time. The bulls did not want it, and the bears had no reason. However, the US presidential election marked the previous trading week. And, we believe that the dollar's fall was quite justified, since the whole election process falls under the meaning of the word chaos. And so the pair came close to the top line of the first side band (and the second one too). A price rebound from the 1.1900-1.1920 area may trigger a downward movement. At least now it is impossible to conclude that the lateral trend is over. As we warned, sellers failed to show their persistence on the way to the 1.1612 level (the previous local low).

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair dropped 170 points last reporting week (October 27-November 2). A strong upward movement began after this time range. Therefore, the fact that the pair grew by 220 points simply does not fall within the time frame of the latest Commercial of Traders (COT) report. According to it, professional traders closed 9,200 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 7,800 Sell-contracts (shorts). And so the net position for non-commercial traders suddenly decreased by 17,000. And any decrease in the net position is a strengthening of the bearish mood. Consequently, professional traders continue to look towards shorts on the euro. Therefore, even despite the euro's subsequent growth, we continue to believe that the high near the 1.2000 level will stay as the peak of the entire uptrend. At least the COT data continues to signal just that. Technical analysis may contradict the COT report, as the latter comes out with a three-day delay. There is no way to know how the major players behaved in the period from November 3 to 6, when the US dollar was greatly falling in value due to the elections. Indicators are also signaling good prospects for a new downward trend now, as the green and red lines continue to narrow (the first indicator). And they, we recall, reflect the net positions of non-commercial traders and commercial ones.

What can you say about the fundamental background of the last trading week? By and large, markets were focused on the US elections. First, to the voting (up to November 3 inclusive), then to the interactive counting of votes, then to the comments of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Donald Trump, in his style, declared himself the winner back on November 4, when even the intermediate results were not accurate. Naturally, later, when Biden's victory began to take on a clearer form, Trump began to implement his strategy, which is to misinform the media and accuse Democrats of falsifying election results. Actually, now everything is going to the trial. Trump has already filed lawsuits in the courts of several states. Somewhere the incumbent president pointed to the exclusion of representatives of the Republican Party from polling stations, called to stop the counting of votes, and made accusations of falsification. Thus, these lawsuits will have to be considered by the courts, and Trump himself has long made it clear that he will not admit his defeat in the elections. Against the backdrop of all this political chaos and the possible further confrontation between Democrats and Republicans, the US dollar depreciated over the past week. Traders did not pay any attention to the Federal Reserve meeting, to Friday's macroeconomic statistics on NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment (which, by the way, could and should have supported the dollar). And as long as political uncertainty persists, the US dollar will remain under market pressure. Which even somewhat contradicts the conclusions drawn from the COT report. Therefore, we, as before, recommend looking for technical confirmation of hypotheses made on the basis of the foundation and COT.

Trading plan for November 9-13:

1) The pair's quotes quickly returned to the horizontal channel. Quotes settled above all the key lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which, however, in a flat, only generates false signals. Thus, so far we can only state a flat. We can only talk about returning the upward trend when the previous local high near the 1.2000 level has been overcome. You should be very careful when trading up on the 4-hour timeframe.

2) In order to be able to sell the EUR/USD pair, you must at least wait for the price to settle below the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. However, even in this case, it is far from certain that the flat will end. Thus, you can look for short-term trends on lower timeframes, but take note that a flat will be present in the long term

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Indicators Ichimoku, Bollinger Bands, MACD.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com