EUR / USD. March 8. Results of the day. NonFarm Payrolls failed. The pair began a correction

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 56p - 73p - 50p - 49p - 144p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 74p (58p).

The EUR / USD currency pair on Friday, March 8, began to be adjusted from the European session itself after yesterday's collapse after the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting. The correction started in the morning on the basis of technical factors, but at the American trading session, it received fundamental support. Unfortunately, the NonFarm Payrolls report completely failed, making only 20K instead of the predicted 180K. It was this report that created additional pressure on the American currency, although, in general, the losses to the US dollar are not yet serious. The effect of the NonFarm Payrolls on unemployment slightly smoothed (decreased in February to 3.8%) and on average wages (increased by 3.4% against the forecast of + 3.3% y / y). However, after the end of the correction, the downward trend may resume, as the pair broke through the most important area of support 1.1250 - 1.1290. In any case, the downward trend remains below the critical line. Thus, the week ends with the advantage of the dollar, and next week there will be ballots in the British Parliament, after which, maybe, finally, some decision on Brexit will be made and uncertainty in this matter will be less. For the EUR / USD pair, these events are of less importance than for the pound. From a technical point of view, the MACD indicator signaled the beginning of the correction, turning to the top.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD pair has begun to be adjusted. Thus, to open new short positions, you should wait until the current correction is completed and the downward movement resumes, and the target will be the level of 1.1161.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered if the bulls manage to consolidate above the Kijun-Sen line. In this case, buy orders in small lots will be relevant for the purpose of 1.1308.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

The red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Do you believe today's NonFarm?

American NonFarms know how to surprise. As a rule, one of the components of key data on the labor market is out of the general rut of forecast levels and underlines the ambiguity of the situation. For example, a month ago, amid a record increase in the number of employed, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to four percent. Today, the opposite is true. With the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% (with a forecast of 3.9%), the growth rate of employment in the non-agricultural sector fell to a record-low value of 20 thousand (while the growth forecast was 185 thousand), in the private sector economy, up to 25 thousand (with the forecast of 187 thousand) and in the manufacturing sector, up to 4 thousand (forecast of 10 thousand).

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This turn of events discouraged traders since the rest of the labor market indicators turned out to be better than expected. We are not talking only about the level of unemployment, which actually returned to its minimum values. The most important inflation indicator — the level of average hourly wages — turned out to be much better than expectations, rising to 0.4% in monthly terms and to 3.4% in annual terms (exceeding the two-year maximum).

But still, such a low increase in the number of employees spoiled the whole positive picture. What is the reason for such an abnormally low result? There are several versions of this. According to one of them, we are dealing with a seasonal correction, since January showed atypically high results, which almost doubled the forecast values.

Another reason (which does not exclude the first version) is a large-scale teachers' strike in the States, which influenced the statistics. The fact is that the statistical mechanics of the United States in its own way "understands" numerous strikes. For the US Department of Labor, all the strikers were formally "fired". I will not go into the details of calculating and counting of employed and unemployed Americans (this is a separate topic). In our case, it is worth noting that the data for February does not fully reflect the situation with the number of new jobs. The data from the ADP agency (which showed an increase of 183 thousand jobs) is probably closer to the truth since they have a slightly different system of selection and counting.

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By the way, this situation does not arise for the first time. In the spring of 2016, due to the large-scale strike of Verizon employees, the real picture of the increase in employment was also distorted. Then official reports showed that the American economy managed to create only 38 thousand jobs. Even the most ardent pessimists among experts could not foresee such a pitiful result. Naturally, a dispute immediately arose among analysts. Are these data evidence of a slowdown in the US labor market, or is this all the same major force? For the most part, traders "did not believe" such data, taking into account the specifics of the American methods of keeping records of the unemployed and the newly employed.

In other words, a large-scale strike of teachers, in which about 50 thousand people took part, could have influenced NonFarm, distorting the real picture. If this is so, then the March data on the labor market (which will be published, respectively, in April) should surpass even the most optimistic forecasts, confirming the major force of today's indicators. Otherwise, we will already deal with a negative trend in this area, and this fact will already have a significant impact on the dollar.

In the meantime, the bulls of the EUR / USD pair have received a formal reason for corrective growth. Sellers failed to gain a foothold yesterday within the 11th figure, so the price was able to return a step higher. True, we cannot speak about any large-scale recovery. If we exclude the 20,000th increase in employment, the US labor market has shown quite strong results that can support the US currency in the long term, especially if inflationary indicators also begin to recover. The increase in wages in this context plays a large role, as it is an early signal of inflationary growth.

In general, the growth of the EUR / USD pair (including correctional) in the near future can only be due to the weakness of the dollar since the single currency will "depart" for a long time from the March meeting of the ECB. Mario Draghi rather sharply reoriented the market relative to the intentions of the regulator, and this fact will put at least background pressure on the euro.

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Now, a few words about technology. Despite the correctional growth, the pair shows a downward direction, being on the daily chart between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is in a narrowed channel. The strength of the southern movement is also confirmed by the bear signal "Parade of lines" of the indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, in which all its lines are above the price chart. The support and resistance levels are the lower and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which correspond to 1.1210 and 1.1315 marks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for March 8, 2019

Bitcoin managed to sustain the bullish momentum above $3,800 area which is heading towards $4000 area with consistent bullish momentum. The price has been supported by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Kumo Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun line along the way which is expected to carry the price higher in the process.

Though the price is bullish and expected to push upward but being corrective while progressing towards $4,000 resistance area does indicate the weakness of the bulls along the way which can result in certain bullish rejection off the $4,000 area before even breaking above $4,000 area with a daily close. As of the current price formation, the price is expected to continue pushing higher as it remains above $3,800 area with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600, 3,800

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Bitcoin analysis for March 08, 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $3.870 and nothing specially changed since our previous analysis.

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According to the H1 time – frame, we found that BTC is trading in the tight upward channel, which is usually indication of the overbought condition. The resistance at the $3.870 is on the test and the buyers having hard to break through, which is sign that buying looks risky at this point. There is also a bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which adding more risk on the upside. Key short-term support level is seen at the price of $3.640.

Trading recommendation: We are watching for potential breakout of the intraday support at $3.825 to confirm downward movement, so we can open short position with the target at $3.640.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 08, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading upwards as we expected. Trading range is broken and the buyers are in control.

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As we mentioned yesterday, key resistance of the accumulation trading range at the price of $1.291.00 is finally broken. After the 3-days of the sideways-basing process, the buyers did the successful breakout of the resistance and after that we found the successful test of supply in a low volume, which is good sign for the further higher price. Key short-term support is seen at the price of $1.281.00. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $1.311.00 and $1.320.00.

Trading recommendation: We are long on Gold from $1.296.00 with the targets at $1.311.00 and $1.320.00. Protective stop is placed at $1.281.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for March 08, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading downwards. Strong bearish momentum is present.

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According to the H4 time – frame, we found that sellers are in control and that there is the breakout of the bearish flag pattern in the background, which I sign of bearish continuation. Short-term resistance is seen at the price of 1.3107. Short term supports are seen at 1.2970 and 1.2900.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on GBP from 1.3100 but we plan to add smaller position on the rally and hold it till potential test of 1.2970. Protective stop is placed at 1.3110.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com