GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 19, 2014

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Intraday resistance was established around 1.7150-1.7190. Since then the GBP/USD pair has been declining within the depicted bearish channel.


The price levels of 1.7050 - 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had a potential bearish target around 1.6970 and then 1.6920.


DAILY fixation below 1.6980-1.7000 applied intensive bearish pressure on the price zone of 1.6920-1.6900 leading to its breakdown as well.


Bullish recovery was evident around 1.6800 - 1.6820 manifested during the previous visit (Monday's daily candlestick)


However, this price zone failed to provide support during the 2nd visit that took place on Friday exposing the price level of 1.6765 for retesting.


Price levels around 1.6800-1.6820 offered a valid SELL entry. SL should be set at daily closure above 1.6860.


Bearish targets should have been reached initially around 1.6670 and then 1.6625 where the lower limit of the ongoing bearish 4H channel is roughly located.


The next bearish destination is located around 1.6580 in case the bears keep developing such bearish momentum. Price action action should be watched for a possible BUY entry.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for August 19, 2014

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The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum leading to obvious breakdown of the depicted bullish trend line.


Bearish pressure which originated off 1.3650 has applied enough pressure at the price level of 1.3560 (corresponding to the previous prominent bottom) exposing the price levels around 1.3360 where bullish recovery was witnessed last week.


Again, the EUR/USD pair has pushed lower towards 1.3330 (prominent bottom established on November 8, 2013), once more after the initial testing that followed the release of the initial readings of the Italian GDP last Thursday.


Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been downtrending within the depicted sub-channel until bullish pressure was applied around 127% Fibonacci Expansion (1.3345).


Bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed on Friday indicating upcoming bullish correction. However, bearish breakout of the consolidation range occured earlier today.


We should wait for the daily closure for confirmation.


On the other hand, bullish fixation above 1.3440 is essential to acquire a momentum strong enough to initiate a bullish corrective move towards 1.3530.


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Bearish breakdown of the price level of 1.3430 allowed the pair to establish a consolidation zone down to 1.3330. Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped inside this price range.


Multiple bottoms are being established with failure of the bears to achieve bearish breakout so far.


The short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone of 1.3420-1.3450.


In case the bears keep applying significant bearish pressure, the EUR/USD pair has Intraday DEMAND levels located around 1.3325, 1.3290, and 1.3275 respectively (Fibonacci Expansion Levels).


On the other hand, bullish fixation above 1.3430 ensures a deeper bullish correction towards 1.3520 and 1.3550.


Bearish breakout is likely to be confirmed today. A valid entry is suggested at retesting of 1.3350 with SL located just above 1.3400.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 19, 2014

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair is also in a downtrend, as it was said at the beginning of this week. The resistance line at 1.3350 has been broken; the price is now trading below it. The next target in the market is the support line at 1.3300. The aforementioned resistance line would be an obstacle to any rallies that may occur along the way.


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USD/CHF: In contrast to what EUR/USD is doing, this pair is going upwards. Our target for this week is situated at the resistance level at 0.9100, which could be tested as it was tested last week. With the continuation of the bullish strength, the resistance level could be breached to the upside. Should the price close above that level, the next target would be the resistance level at 0.9150.


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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair has gone below our target at 1.6650. The currency pair is likely to go towards another accumulation territory at 1.6600. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart is so strong that the possibility of the downward movement is greater than the possibility of it going upwards.


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USD/JPY: This trading instrument is currently strong – a result of the strength in the USD and the weakness in the JPY. The price is trading above the demand level at 102.50, going towards the supply level at 103.00. That supply level is our first target for the week.


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EUR/JPY: In the EUR/JPY chart, the market remains flat. It seems that the EUR and JPY have equal strength, and this issue has to go out of balance, so that a trending movement can begin. The RSI period 14 is below the level 50, and therefore, the price has the potential to go south.


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EUR/NZD analysis for August 19, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price was tested and rejected from the level of 1.5843. Price has been successfully rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5900, which caused the price to start with downward movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find support levels and I got Fibonaccci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5710 and Fibonaccci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5595. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. So, if the price breaks the level of 1.5710 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1.5595. According to the 1H timeframe, we can observe absorption volume since buying climax got abosrbed by sellers.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5784


R2: 1.5794


R3: 1.5810


Support levels:


S1: 1.5752


S2: 1.5742


S3: 1.5726


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 19 , 2014


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Overview :



  • The price of the GBP/USD pair has been not stable because the trend has been moving between 1.6725 and 1.6657 since yesterday. Also, it might notice that the the prices of 1.6725 and 1.6657 are representing the weekly pivot point and the double bottom respectively. Furthermore, it should be noted that the resistance has already set at the price of 1.6725 and the support is placed at 1.6622. Accordingly, it would be wise to be careful in this area. So, the first step is waiting in this spot before investing. As a result, it will probably be that the GBP/USD pair is going to start showing the signs of the bullish market at the level of 1.6622. In other words, it will be a good idea to buy above the price of 1.6622 with the first target of 1.6666 in order to try to close above minor resistance. Then it will call for an uptrend to continue its bullish movement towards 1.6725 to test the weekly pivot point for forming the strong resistance at this point in H1 chart. Consequently, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.6725. Thus, the level will be acting as strong resistance today. For that, it is providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 1.6625. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above 1.67453.


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Gold analysis for August 19, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways. We are waiting for larger movement and a lager volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume below the average. We got successful rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after retracement. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent ABC swings and I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,284.00 (almost got tested). According the the 4H timeframe, we can observe weak demand on the market, which is another sign that buying Gold at this stage looks risky.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,303.44


R2: 1,305.42


R3: 1,308.63


Support levels:


S1: 1,297.02


S2: 1,295.04


S3: 1,291.83


Trading recommendations: Buying Gold looks risky since we got successful rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 19 , 2014

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Overview :



  • The EUR/USD pair has broken a minor support at the level of 1.3350. Additionally, it should be noted that the price has opened below the minor support today. Moreover, the weekly pivot point is calculated at 1.3381 this week. The price was approaching it in order to test it yesterday but the trend failed to hit it. Therefore, it will probably start downside movement at this area and recover again. Thus, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the minor support (1.3350), so it will be a good sign to buy at this spot with a first target of 1.3333 (the double bottom), and continue towards 1.3302 in order to try hitting the weekly support 1. On the other hand, if there is a break at the price of 1.3385, then it will be a good location for placing the stop loss.


Notes :



  • The daily support will set at the level of 1.3302.

  • The major resistance is going to set at the 1.3381.

  • We saw an insignificant range of 53 pips last week because the volatility was not high yesterday. But, today we expect the large range of 75 -90 pips.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 19, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5844


R2: 1.5825


R1: 1.5815


Current spot: 1.5805


S1: 1.5792


S2: 1.5758


S3: 1.5743


Technical summary:


Wave b of 2 extended higher to 1.5848. Now, we will be looking for wave c of 2 lower to 1.5675 to end the correction from 1.5898 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally higher towards 1.5898 on the way higher to 1.6205 and even higher in the longer term. In the short run, a break below 1.5792 will confirm, that wave b has ended at 1.5848 and wave c lower to 1.5675 is developing. Only an unexpected break above 1.5898 will indicate that wave 2 ended early at 1.5716 and wave 3 higher is already developing.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.5825 was hit for a small loss. We have had a nice winning streak, but instead of trying a high risk EUR-short opportunity, we will look for a new EUR-buying opportunity at 1.5685 or upon a break above 1.5898.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 19, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 137.42


R2: 137.36


R1: 137.28


Current spot: 136.95


S1: 136.76


S2: 136.55


S3: 136.38


Technical summary:


This cross has been trading in a relatively narrow range since yesterday. We are still looking for a break below minor support at 136.76, which will add downside acceleration for a decline to 135.78 on the way lower towards the ideal target at 134.34, where wave C will be equal in length to wave C. At this point, only an unexpected break above 137.62 will indicate that a long-term bottom is in place.


Trading recommendation:


We are short in EUR at 137.30 with stop at 137.75. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 137.20 or upon a break below 136.76 with the same stop at 137.75.


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#USDX Technical analysis for August 19, 2014

The Dollar index remains supported and bulls still have lots of chances of pushing higher towards 82. The longer-term pattern looks like a bullish flag or pennant and this gives us a target of 83-84. This scenario will be valid as long as the Dollar index remains above 81.30.


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The short-term trend remains neutral as price is moving sideways. Bulls are on the safe side as long as price trades above the Ichimku cloud at 81.45 and as long as support lows at 81.35 are not broken. On the other hand, bears want to see another price rejection near 81.70 and a push through the thin Ichimoku cloud support.


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The Dollar index has broken out of the upward sloping channel in the daily chart. However, the current price pattern starts to look similar to a bullish flag. This pattern if broken upwards gives me a target of 83-84 in the medium term. However, if price closes below 81.35, this bullish scenario will be canceled.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 19, 2014

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 6.31% to 12.32; S&P 500 rose 0.85% to close at 1,971.74 overnight) as worries eased over the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.394 versus 2.345 late Friday), stronger dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.59 versus 81.45 early Monday) after surprise rise in U.S. NAHB housing market index to 55 in August from 53 in July (versus the forecast for no change). But the USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales.


Data focus:


0500 GMT Japan June revised indexes of business conditions;

0600 GMT Japan July revised machine tool orders;

1230 GMT U.S. July CPI, housing starts and building permits.


Technical comment:
The daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in a bullish mode, although the inside-day-range pattern completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.75 and the second target at 103. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.95. The pivot point is at 102.40.


Resistance levels:

102.75

103

103.25


Support levels:

102.20

101.95

101.65


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 19, 2014

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. The NZD sentiment is dented by 1.0% on-quarter drop in New Zealand 2Q producer input prices and 0.5% drop in producer output prices. NZD/USD is also undermined by the positive dollar sentiment;=, soft commodity & dairy prices, reduced expectations of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year as well as the official stance against strong Kiwi exchange rate. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion and NZD-USD interest differential. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is in a bullish mode.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8415. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8395. The pivot point stands at 0.8470. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8495 and the second target at 0.8530.


Resistance levels:

0.8495

0.8530

0.8560


Support levels:

0.8415

0.8395

0.8375


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 19, 2014

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy, and franc sales on rebounding EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. The daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics is in a bearish mode, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9095 and the second target at 0.9115. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9015. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8990. The pivot point is at 0.90500.


Resistance levels:

0.9095

0.9115

0.9135



Support levels:


0.9015

0.8990

0.8975


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Gold Wave analysis for August 19, 2014

Gold price remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The decline has stopped. For our bullish expectations to be confirmed, we need to see soon a new upward move start and break above $1,313 first. Our target is at least $1,350.


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Short-term trend is bearish as price is below the Ichimoku cloud. However, our elliott wave analysis shows that the decline is corrective while the rise from $1,280 was impulsive. That is why I expect at least one more impuslive move higher. Short-term resistance is found at $1,313 and short-term support at $1,294 and $1,280 is crucial.


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Above, I show my two possible long-term elliott wave scenarios. They are opposite to one another but I believe they are equally possible. Despite one being bearish and one being bullish, both converge to the view that an upward move towards $1,350 is expected by both scenarios. Important resistance is found at $1,350. If we reach that level, we will then have a clearer picture regarding which scenario is stronger. $1,350 is my target as long as price is above $1,280.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 19, 2014

General overview for 19/08/2014 09:30 CET


So far, the wave progression supports the view of more impulsive downside development. The key level to keep an eye of is the intraday support at the level of 136.75. Breakout lower would be bearish and lower prices might be hit very quickly. On the other hand, the orange rectangular area has not been hit yet and the market might be developing more complex purple wave b (ie: triangle formation) and then move higher for the last wave upwards, hit the target zone and decline towards the 136.75 level.


Support/Resistance:


135.71 - Technical Support


135.77 - WS2


136.45 - WS1


136.75 - Intraday Support


137.04 - Weekly Pivot


137.06 - Intraday Resistance


137.70 - WR1


138.02 - Swing High | Red Impulsive Count Invalidation Level|


138.29 - WR2


Trading recommendations:


Sell orders form the level of 137.40 with SL above the level of 137.60 and TP below the level of 136.45 has not been triggered, but this is still an option to trade. The other trading possibility to consider is to trade the intraday support level breakout with entry at the level of the 136.74 and using the same SL and TP as above.


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 19, 2014

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Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is underpinned by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales. The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.75 and the second target at 172.10. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 170.55. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 170.20. The pivot point is at 171.


Resistance levels:

171.75

172.65

173.30



Support levels:


170.55

170.20

169.85


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Short term forecast and intra week recommendations on GBP/JPY for August 19, 2014

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The pair got enough support at 200DSma and bounced from there. The pair in todays session is unable to break the previous day high. On the upper side, the pair has a strong resistance at 172.32 (100DSma). A daily close above 172.32 will take the pair towards 173 which is a crucial level for this pair in the short term. A daily closure below 170.47 will drift up to 169.50 and 168.75 in the short term.


For an intraday basis, it has support at 171.40, 171.30 and 171.20. We recommend selling only below 171.


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Weekly trading recommendation on USD/CAD for August 19, 2014

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The US dollar was fueled by the housing data. The pair is taking support at 200DSma and looking for a corrective move upwards. In today's session the pair held the support at 20DSma. Until the pair trades close above 1.0860, the bulls will try to take the pair to higher levels. On the bearish front, if the pair closes below 1.0860 it can drift up to the 1.079-1.078 levels. On the bigger view, the pair has a strong resistance between 1.0989-1.1, above this it can fly up to the 1.1050 levels.


A daily close below 1.0860, strong sell at 1.079-1.078.


Intraday- cmp 1.0893


The pair favors strong buying only above 1.0910 towards 1.0940, 1.0960, and 1.0975 levels. On the down side, it has support at 1.0875 and 1.0860. We recommend selling only below 1.0860.


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Review and intraday trading recommendations of Gold for August 19, 2014

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Review- Stronger US data pushed the metal to the support levels. In yesterday's session, the metal hit the 100DSma, but at the end of the day it managed to close above that. As we recommended in our yesterday's article, don't buy until it trades below $1,303.50 for risky players and $1,305 for safe players. This strategy minted good money on an intraday basis.


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In today's session the pair held the support of 61.8 fib level and 100DSma trading above these. On the upside, the pair has a resistance at $1,301, $1,305.50, and $1,305.50. Until the metal breaks $1,305.50, it will trade in a range between the $1,290-$1,305 levels. For an intra week basis, at a daily closure below $1,296, bears will have an upper hand.


Support $1,296 $1,290 $1,284


Resistance $1,301.50 $1,305.50 $1,310


Intraday cmp $1,299


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The metal prices are closed below the key moving averages. The metal triggers a safe buy only above $1,302 for a minor up move $1,305.50 and $1,307 initially and later $1,310. The metal has a support at the $1,297.50, $1,295, and $1,290 levels.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 19, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Current Account. The US will release the economic data too such as the Building Permits, CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, and Housing Starts. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3424.

Strong Resistance:1.3416.

Original Resistance: 1.3403.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3390.

Target Inner Area: 1.3358.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3326.

Original Support: 1.3313.

Strong Support: 1.3300.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3292. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for August 19, 2014

EUR/USD


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The pair has been making lower highs for 7 weeks, and has been rejected at 20DSma 4 days in a row. In today's session, the pair opened with a minor bearish note opened higher at 1.3363, resulted that trade has been long until it breaches the 1.3363 levels. The sell on an upward move is rewarding good money with sl 20DSma on a closing basis. On the down side, the pair has a strong support at 1.3350 and 1.3330 below this, 1.33/1.3295 will act as the weekly key support levels. A daily close below 1.3295 will make the push the pair towards 1.3250, 1.3210 in a week's time.


Weekly key support level 1.32954


Weekly key resistance level 1.34 (20DSma).


Buy only above 1.34, until selling on an upward move.


Intraday cmp 1.3360


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The pair is trading below the 21hrsma, 12ema, and 34hr sma which generates the bearish sign. The today's opening higher made the pair more bearish towards the support trend line in the h4 chart. In an intraday basis, until the pair breaches the 1.3365, sellers will gain profit.


Support 1.3350 1.3340 1.3330


Resistance 1.3365 1.3375 1.34-1.3410


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 19, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data for today, while the US will unveil its Building Permits, CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, and Housing Starts. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility today.

Today’s technical levels:

Resistance. 3: 103.13.

Resistance. 2: 102.93.

Resistance. 1: 102.73.

Support. 1: 102.48.

Support. 2: 102.27.

Support. 3: 102.07.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of Gold for Aug 19, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold has completed its counter trend around $1,292.00 levels last week. Furthermore, the metal has formed base around $1,295.00 levels as seen here. High probability remains for an extended rally above $1,350.00 levels from here on.


2. Support is seen at $1,292.00 (interim), followed by $1,280.00, $1,260.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,325.00, followed by $1,388.00 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Gold remains to look higher towards $1,390.00 and above $1,400.00 levels from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,280.00, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Aug 19, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair remains subdued at 137.00 levels for now. The pair needs to push through at least 138.00 levels to at least confirm a retracement/pullback. Recommendations for now, is to remain short with risk at 138.00 levels.


2. Support is seen at 135.80, followed by 134.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 138.00, followed by 139.20, 140.00 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY shall remain bearish till 138.00 remains intact.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short for now, stop above 138.00, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for Aug 19, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF pair remains unchanged from yesterday, after bouncing off from 1.5070 levels last week. The pair is expected to stage a counter trend rally towards at least 1.5250 levels if not higher. Recommendations are to remain flat for now and await for a lower top to be carved below 1.5350 levels to go short again.


2. Support is at 1.4950, followed by 1.4750 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5350, followed by 1.5450 respectively.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF could rally towards 1.5250 levels, before reversing again.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Daily analysis of USDX for August 19, 2014

Daily chart: The USDX remains above the support level of 81.50, because this instrument continues forming a bullish pattern. If the USDX does a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the 200 SMA located at the support level of 80.62. However, the next objective for the USDX on the bullish trend is the resistance level of 81.95. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


USDXDaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX continues to find support at the 81.39 level, which means that the USDX has been moving into the range for several weeks. The resistance level of 81.72 remains very strong in this chart. If the USDX does a breakout at that level, the next target would be the bullish trend line at 82.50. This MACD indicator is in positive territory.


USDXH4.png

H1 chart: The USDX is trying to stay above the 200-day moving average with the formation of a bullish pattern. If the USDX manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 81.58, the next bullish objective will be the level of 81.73. The MACD indicator is entering overbought zone.


USDXH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 81.58, take profit is at 81.73, and stop loss is at 81.44.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 19, 2014

Daily chart: The GBP/USD opened this week with a bullish gap, so it is likely that this pair will climb to the resistance level of 1.6766. However, the GBP/USD could perform a pullback in that level and fall back to the support level of 1.6668 to fill the gap, in an area where the 200-day moving average is located. The MACD indicator is entering oversold zone, so it is likely that the GBP/USD will continue forming a higher low pattern.


1408402273_GBPUSDDaily.png


H4 chart: The GBP/USD is kept below the resistance level of 1.6731, because the pair is likely to fall to the support level of 1.6692 within hours. If the GBP/USD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6762, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6820. There it would be very close to the 200-day moving average. The MACD indicator stays in positive territory.


1408402279_GBPUSDH4.png


H1 chart: The GBP/USD moved in the range during yesterday's session of , below the 200 SMA. If this pair manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6700, the next target would be the support level of 1.6629. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD does a breakout at the 1.6750 level, it would be expected to that rise to the level of 1.6800. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.


GBPUSDH1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6700, take profit is at 1.6629, and stop loss is at 1.6775.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for August 18, 2014

gbpdaily.jpg


Breakdown of the DEMAND level around 1.6975 allowed a quick decline of the GBP/USD pair towards the price zone of 1.6800-1.6820.


When retesting the price zone of 1.6800-1.6820, considerable bullish recovery took place. This bullish movement was halted below 1.6880 when the bears applied considerable bearish pressure.


Last week, the GBP/USD pair declined again towards 1.6770. This came after the release of the British manufacturing data, which came below expectations.


In case the bears keep applying bearish pressure, we expect the pair to keep fixating below the price level of 1.6760 (the previously broken top established in February 2014 ).


On the other hand, failure of the bears to fixate below 1.6760 will probably allow the bulls to initiate a bullish corrective movement towards 1.6820 and 1.6900 as well.


gbp4hh.jpg


The price zone of 1.6830 - 1.6800 remains a significant zone as it corresponds to the previous consolidation zone established in June.


However, 4H fixation below this zone exposed the price levels around 1.6660-1.6680 where the lower limit of the current bearish channel is located.


Note that the GBP/USD pair has been downtrending for almost 20 days without significant correction.


Thus, any bullish fixation above 1.6725 invalidates the current steep trend allowing a deeper bullish correction to occur.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 18, 2014

USDJPYM30.png


Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the selling of yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 5.88% to 13.15, S&P 500 closed roughly flat at 1,955.06 Friday) as worries mounted over a possible escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. USD/JPY is also weighed by Japanese export sales and lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.341 versus 2.398 late Thursday), the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.45 versus 81.61 early Friday) on lower-than-expected U.S. July PPI of +0.1% (versus forecast +0.2%), worse-than-expected drop in U.S. Empire State's business conditions index to 14.69 in August from 25.60 in July (versus forecast 20.0), weaker-than-expected University of Michigan preliminary U.S. August consumer sentiment index of 79.2 (versus forecast 82.0). But the USD sentiment is soothed by the higher-than-expected 0.4% rise in U.S. July industrial production (versus forecast +0.2%) and capacity utilization of 79.2% (versus forecast 79.1%). But USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from Japanese importers.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Friday, but stochastics is neutral.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.75 and the second target at 103. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.95. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.65. The pivot point is at 102.20.


Resistance levels:

102.75

103

103.25


Support levels:

101.95

101.65

101.40


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for August 18, 2014

eurdaily.jpg


The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum leading to obvious breakdown of the depicted bullish trend line.


Bearish pressure which originated off 1.3650 has applied enough pressure on the price level of 1.3560 (corresponding to the previous prominent bottom) exposing the price levels around 1.3360 where bullish recovery was witnessed last week.


Again, the EUR/USD pair has pushed lower towards 1.3330 (prominent bottom established on November 8, 2013), once more after the initial testing that followed the release of the initial readings of the Italian GDP last Thursday.


Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been downtrending within the depicted sub-channel until bullish pressure was applied around 127% Fibonacci Expansion (1.3345).


Bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed on Friday. This indicates a possible double bottom reversal pattern with a bullish projection target roughly around 1.3500-1.3520


Bullish fixation above 1.3440 is essential to acquire a momentum strong enough to initiate a bullish corrective move towards 1.3530.


eur4h.jpg


Bearish breakdown of the price level of 1.3430 allowed the pair to establish a consolidation zone down to 1.3330. Since then the EUR/USD pair has been trapped inside this price range.


Note the bullish pressure being applied around price levels of 1.3330.


Multiple bottoms are being established with failure of the bears to achieve bearish breakout so far.


The short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone of 1.3420-1.3450.


In case the bears keep applying significant bearish pressure, the EUR/USD pair has Intraday DEMAND levels located around 1.3325, 1.3290, and 1.3275 respectively (Fibonacci Expansion Levels).


On the other hand, bullish fixation above 1.3430 ensures a deeper bullish correction towards 1.3520 and 1.3550.


Range breakout is likely to occur soon. A valid entry is suggested in the same direction of the breakout.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 18, 2014

USDCHFM30.png


Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment, flow to haven CHF on fears of the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.91 and the second target at 0.9115. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9015. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8990. The pivot point is at 0.9040.


Resistance levels:

0.91

0.9115

0.9135



Support levels:


0.9015

0.8990

0.8975


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