Dollar is under pressure again based on the CFTC report. Overview of USD, EUR, GBP

This morning, ATP stock indices declined amid rising concerns about a second wave of coronavirus, which threatens to bring down national economies again.

According to last Friday's CFTC report, market positioning shows the third consecutive reduction in the short position on the US dollar, which now stands at -31.747 billion. This reduction is primarily due to the sales of the euro and the pound, which entered the clinch again after the resumption of Brexit negotiations did not lead to positive changes. Although it was lowered, the total volume of the short position remains huge.

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At the same time, the dollar did not grow in other assets, but worsened its position instead. Thus, the short position in CAD has slightly declined, while the long position in AUD has grown strongly, which indicates growth in risk sentiment. On the other hand, long positions in the yen and gold rose, which simultaneously indicates an increase in anti-risk sentiment.

This misunderstanding will be simply resolved if we assume that it is not inclined to strengthen in investor calculations, but continues to be under strong pressure despite the decline in the short position on the dollar. The dynamics of oil futures confirms this conclusion – the dollar continues to be under strong pressure and the chances of its growth against most G10 currencies look low this morning.

EUR/USD

Despite the fact that the euro's long position was reduced by 2.531 billion, it is still very high at $ 26.445. In addition, a number of other parameters, such as the attractiveness of stock markets and the yield spread in the US and the eurozone, keep the majority of investor's demand for the euro at a high level. The target price declined but this only led to a short correction at the spot and a side range.

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But the situation has changed. The calculated price shows the desire to turn up, which means that the correction period for the euro is likely to end, and the chances for EUR/USD to move up and retest 1.20 are growing. In the short term, we expect growth to the range of 1.1900/20, after which the bullish direction of the pair will become more clear.

GBP/USD

Based on market positioning, the pound looks noticeably weaker than the euro. The long position was reduced by 848 million almost to zero, there is no overweight in either direction on futures, and the target price continues to fluctuate near its long-term average without an obvious desire for a strong movement.

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Investors did not completely gain new information from the Bank of England's meeting, as there were no additional guidelines. In turn, macroeconomic data is generally neutral, retail sales growth in August by 0.8% is too little to hope for a rise in inflation, and political changes are more fearful than hopeful.

In Parliament, the opposition between Laborites and the Tories on the internal market bill continues, which led to the adoption of an amendment on the need to enlist the support of Parliament if the government is going to violate international obligations. This amendment will help to work out a solution in negotiations with the EU, but the chances of a hard Brexit are still regarded as very high.

Technically, the corrective growth from 1.2760 to 1.3000 seems to have ended. The pound is facing a rising probability of a second wave of decline, and only a weak dollar can prevent this. The most likely scenario is the formation of a local top in the 1.30 area and a movement to 1.2620/50 in the coming days, while a sideways range is slightly unlikely. So, the pound can only rise if there is a breakthrough news on Brexit, other than that, it has no reasons to grow.

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GBP/USD: Impact of negative rates to the pound

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The British currency is expected to experience turbulence in the near future, which can slow down its upward trend. The reason for the likely volatility lies in negative rates. This is possible if the UK monetary authorities make the appropriate decision. In view of this, experts are afraid of the extremely negative impact of negative rates on the pound's dynamics, which has recently lost its position.

Last week, the pound declined by almost 0.6% against the dollar and the euro. This happened after the Bank of England discussed the possible introduction of negative interest rates. The regulator seeks to evaluate their effectiveness in order to apply them if necessary.

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Earlier, the Bank of England maintained its previous stimulus programs, emphasizing that the national economy has shown quite positive results. As for the implementation of the negative rate, the regulator believes that this measure is possible if its advantages outweigh the disadvantages, including those related to inflation risks.

The current situation is shaking the pound's position, which is balancing between negative and positive news. So, it is like a ship moving through the waves of the financial sea, fighting a storm or experiencing relative calm from time to time. Today, the GBP/USD pair was moving around the levels of 1.2955-1.2956, trying to get out of this range.

Moreover, the discussion of the introduction of negative rates as well as Brexit issues are the reasons for the abrupt transitions in the dynamics of the British currency. It should be recalled that London's position has softened with regard to Britain's exit from the EU. According to the regulator, the main option in this matter is an orderly transition to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union, which is expected to take effect on January 1, 2021.

According to experts, the primary issue affecting the further dynamics of the pound will be the adoption of an effective trade agreement with Brussels. The British authorities consider the recent negotiations on Brexit to be useful for both sides and able to bring trade relations to a new level. However, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the policy of negative rates will be extremely unfavorable for the British economy and for the national currency.

Discussing the possibility of introducing negative rates, the representatives of the Bank of England consider the current rates the most appropriate in the current situation. However, this issue is becoming a time bomb for the pound, both due to a long period of uncertainty and against the backdrop of possible negative consequences.

Analysts said that the introduction of negative interest rates may push the pound further to the bottom and they are sure that they will become a strong catalyst for the pound's decline. It will be difficult for the indicated currency to get out of this. Therefore, it will have to do its best to stay afloat.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on September 21

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair on September 21

Analysis of transactions

The euro is trading in a flat market due to the absence of news and macroeconomic reports that could support the currency to move in a clear direction. As a result, short positions from 1.1846 did not bring profit, contrary to what was expected, especially since movement in EUR / USD only to 15 pips.

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Key events for today are the speeches of ECB president Christine Lagarde and Fed chairman Jerome Powell, which will certainly set the direction where EUR / USD will move. However, the highest probability lies in a further strengthening of the euro against the dollar, which in turn means a continued rise of EUR / USD in the market.

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  • Buy positions from 1.1884 (green line on the chart) and then take profit around 1.1920. A large upward movement is expected to occur after the speech of ECB president Christine Lagarde.
  • Sell shorts from 1.1854 (red line on the chart) and then take profit at the level of 1.1797. However, note that the potential of a decline is extremely limited as the downward trend is already over.

Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair on September 21

Analysis of transactions

Just like the euro, the pound also traded in a flat market, having both long positions and short positions canceling each other out.

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The important events that traders should watch out for today are the speech of Fed chairman Jerome Powell and the news related to Brexit. Any update pertaining to the escalation of dispute will increase pressure on the British pound.

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  • Buy the pound at a price level of 1.2966 (green line on the chart) and then take profit around the level of 1.2998 (thicker green line on the chart).
  • Sell the pound at a price level of 1.2945 (red line on the chart) and then take profit at least at 1.2903. Any negative from the EU or an intensification of the Brexit dispute will put pressure on the pound.
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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 21. COT reports. Bears defend resistance at 1.2996

To open long positions in GBP/USD, you need:

A fairly good signal to sell the British pound appeared last Friday, which caused the pair to fall by 50 points. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down the trade. In my review, I recommended opening short positions after forming a false breakout at 1.2996, which happened. We see how the bears won't allow the pair to go above 1.2996, and all other attempts to raise GBP/USD do not even reach this range, as a result of which the bulls gave up and the pound fell. However, the pair only reached the middle of the horizontal channel, where trade is now being conducted.

Important changes took place in the futures market after the pound significantly fell. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 15 recorded a reduction in long positions, and a large increase in short positions, which indicates the market's expectations and a high likelihood of the pound's fall in the long term, which is probably caused by uncertainty regarding the Brexit trade deal. And if last week it was possible to say that the downward momentum may start to gradually slow down, which the market showed us, now the situation is on the side of the pound sellers and the pair might continue to decline. Short non-commercial positions increased from 33,860 to 41,508 during the reporting week. Meanwhile, long non-commercial positions decreased from 46,590 to 43,801. As a result, the non-commercial net position sharply fell to 2,293, against 12 730 a week earlier.

As for the current market situation, I do not recommend rushing to buy or sell, since trading is carried out in the middle of the channel, and it is difficult to say where it would move in the short term. Buyers will still focus on the resistance level of 1.2996, settling above this range forms a good entry point into long positions in hopes of continuing the bull market and also updating the 1.3089 high, which is where I recommend taking profits. Persistent bulls will wait for a test of the 1.3178 area, but this is more like a dream, since such a movement requires positive Brexit news. In case the pair falls in the first half of the day, you can count on long positions from the support of 1.2867 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. If there is no activity in this range, and its breakout will revives the large bearish trend for the pound, then it is best to buy on a rebound from the 1.2777 low.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers need to do everything to prevent the pound from going beyond last week's high, otherwise, they will completely lose control over the market. Therefore, in case GBP/USD grows, forming the next false breakout at the 1.2996 level will be a signal to open short positions in the hopes of pulling down the pair to the support area of 1.2867, which is where I recommend taking profits. Resilient sellers will still be looking for a breakout and consolidation below this range, pulling down the pair towards the monthly low in the 1.2777 area. Testing this level will mark the beginning of a new downward trend for the pair. In case GBP/USD grows above the 1.2996 level in the first half of the day, I recommend postponing short positions and waiting until the 1.3089 high has been updated, afterwards you can sell the pound immediately on a rebound, counting on a 30-40 point correction within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates uncertainty regarding direction in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2905 area will lead to a new wave of fall for the British pound. A breakout of the upper border in the 1.2985 area will lead to an upward correction of the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 21. COT reports. Euro buyers expect a breakout of 1.1868, but sellers

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Considering that Friday was expected to be just like this - calm and with low volatility, we could not wait for acceptable signals to appear regarding market entry. Let's break down the trades and look at the 5-minute chart. A breakout and consolidating above the 1.1852 level in the morning and then testing it from top to bottom produced an entry point into long positions, but there was no growth. A similar entry point formed in the afternoon after testing the 1.1852 level from the bottom up. We managed to achieve a downward movement of about 20 points in that area, after which the market regained equilibrium and returned to the 1.1852 level. Before talking about the current prospects for the pair's movement, let's look at the situation in the futures market first since it has seriously changed, which may affect the alignment of forces in the future.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 15 continued to record a reduction in long non-commercial positions and an increase in short ones, which confirms a downward correction in EUR/USD, which we recently observed. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 248,683 to 230,695, while short non-commercial positions rose from 51,869 to 52,199. The decisions that were made by the Federal Reserve last week, although they supported the US dollar, hardly changed the overall medium-term upward trend in the EUR/USD pair. Therefore, I recommend you to bet that the euro will strengthen this week. This is evidenced by the total non-commercial net position, which, although it slightly decreased over the reporting week, still remained at a positive level. As a result, the non-commercial net position fell to 178,576 against 196,814 a week earlier.

As for the current market situation, as I noted above, buyers need to quickly cope with the 1.1868 level and settle on it, which forms a good entry point into long positions. The main plan is for EUR/USD to return to the resistance level of 1.1915, which is also a rather important psychological mark. However, the 1.1964 area (this month's high) will still be the long term target, which is where I recommend taking profit. In case of a downward correction, and since we don't expect any important fundamental data today, trading may be purely go sideways/horizontally with low volatility, therefore, I recommend returning to long positions only when a false breakout appears in the support area of 1.1828, where the moving averages are concentrated, or you can buy the pair immediately on the rebound from the low of 1.1785, counting on the correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Today we can expect regular speeches from the heads of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. However, its content is not yet clear. Most likely, they will be similar to those delivered last week. This could cause the euro to rise against the US dollar. Therefore, I recommend that you only open short positions when a false breakout forms at the 1.1868 level, in hopes of pulling down the pair to the intermediate support at 1.1828. Forming a breakout and consolidating below this range is an important goal for the bears, which will lead to a larger sell-off of EUR/USD to the low of 1.1785 and this can revive sellers' hope of testing the 1.1740 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro grows above the 1.1868 level at the beginning of this week, and everything seems to be leading to this, it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for resistance to be updated at 1.1915 and then you can sell from there on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day. The larger resistance level is concentrated in the 1.1964 area, where you can also sell the euro immediately on a rebound.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the uncertainty of the market with its succeeding direction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator around 1.1830 will increase pressure on the euro. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1870 area will lead to a sharper rise in the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/21/20

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The EUR/USD pair, following from the upper border of the side channel 1.1700 //1.1810 // 1.1910, reached an important price level of 1.1755, where there was a regular rebound, returning the quote to the upper part of the channel - 1.1810/1.1910.

It is worth recalling that the level of 1.1755 was confirmed in the market by the price rebound in the periods of August 21, August 27, September 9 and September 17. The side channel 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910 has a duration of more than seven weeks, where traders have the opportunity to know in advance where a stop will occur with a following price rebound.

As long as the rebound sequence is maintained in the market, we can work based on this pattern, which makes it possible to generate simple forecasts.

Based on the data obtained about finding the quote and successive fluctuations, it can be concluded that the recommendations from the previous review are still considered relevant and should be followed.

Let's consider several market development scenario:

First, the breakdown of line No. 3 (1.1910).

The quote returned to the original range of 1.1810/1.1910, where if the price is consolidated above 1.1920, the side channel structure may change, which will lead to a repetition of the plot on August 18 and September 1.

Second, a temporary swing followed by a decline.

The price movement in the upper part of the side channel 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910 leads to the accumulation of short positions, which, as a result, leads to a downward movement. In this scenario, the average level of 1.1810 will be immediately broken by the price, and market participants will go to the level of 1.1755 once again.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair, moving along the corrective course from the support level of 1.2770, reached an important resistance in the face of the price value 1.3000, where it is testing its strength for the fourth day in a row, consistently hitting it.

In this case, we have a logical basis for the price rebound from the level of 1.3000, which is confirmed not only by the time interval of September 16-18, but also by the entire history on the trading chart.

The primary task is to work on a rebound from the level of 1.3000, where the recovery of the downward move relative to the correction of 1.2770 - - - > 1.3000 will occur after a clear price consolidation below the area of 1.2860/1.2885, in the direction of 1.2770.

An alternative scenario considers the extension of the correction move from the level of 1.2770, where the quote needs to be consolidated above 1.3035 on the four-hour (H4) time frame.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 21, 2020

The pair traded downward on Friday after its rebound to the resistance level 1.3000 (red thick line). Today, the price may resume its upward movement. Based on the economic calendar, dollar news is expected at 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.2917 (closing of the Friday's daily candlestick) with the target at the resistance level 1.3014 (red bold line). If this line is tested, the upward trendd may continue with the next target of 1.3209 - an 85.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move upward with the target at the resistance level 1.3014 (red bold line). If this line is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target of 1.3209 - an 85.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario: upon reaching the resistance level 1.3014 (red bold line), the price may begin to move downward with the target of 1.2866 - a 50% pullback level (red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 21, 2020

The pair traded in a side channel on Friday. Today, the price may resume its upward movement. Based on the economic calendar, euro news is expected at 12:45 UTC, and dollar news is expected at 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.1842 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) with the target at the historical resistance level 1.1912 (blue dotted line). If this line is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the upper fractal 1.2012 (red dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward with the target at the historical resistance level 1.1912 (blue dotted line). If this line is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the upper fractal 1.2012 (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario: after testing the historical resistance level 1.1912 (blue dotted line), the price may begin to move downward with the target of 1.1813 - a 23.6% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 21, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair had tested the short-term trend line resistance located around the level of 1.1860 and made a new local high at 1.1871. Nevertheless, there is no follow through after the breakout and the bulls do not seem to be entirely in control over the market. The breakout might be a false one, so if the level of 1.1826 is violated, the bears will intensify the pressure.

The levels of 1.1790, 1.1803 and 1.1813 will now act as an intraday technical support for the price, together with the level of 1.1822. The momentum remains weak and negative, so another wave down towards the next target seen at the level of 1.1710 is anticipated. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2077

WR2 - 1.1988

WR1 - 1.1919

Weekly Pivot - 1.1829

WS1 - 1.1748

WS2 -1.1662

WS3 - 1.1583

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 21, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been seen consolidating in a narrow range between the levels of 1.2869 - 1.2979 for all the weekend. The immediate technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017 and it should temporary stop any bullish attempts. The violation of this line had put bulls in control of the market and another wave up will develop. The intraday technical support is seen at the levels of 1.2869, 1.2848 and 1.2816. Please notice the overbought market conditions support the temporary pull back towards the lower range levels. Momentum remains neutral.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3253

WR2 - 1.3131

WR1 - 1.3027

Weekly Pivot - 1.2896

WS1 - 1.2795

WS2 -1.2660

WS3 - 1.2557

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on September 21? Plan for opening and

The hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.

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The EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly resumed its upward movement during Monday night trading and even broke the first resistance level of 1.1864. Thus, it is not for nothing that we recommended in yesterday's review to wait until Monday morning before opening short positions. The overall trading strategy for the near future remains unchanged. Since the pair's quotes again rose to the upper area of the side channel of 1.1700-1.1900, sales should be considered. Unfortunately, there is still no trend line (inside the side channel) or trend channel that supports the trend or at least can give a signal about its change to the opposite. Thus, you have to trade almost at random. If the price is fixed above the level of 1.1903, which is the upper line of the side channel, then the upward movement can continue, and we will be recommended to consider buy orders.

The fundamental background promises to be interesting today. Yesterday, we talked about the fact that Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, is due to speak today. Today, a line about the speech of Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, also appeared in the news calendars. Thus, if both of these planned performances take place, then potentially traders will have a lot of new information at their disposal today. The only question is, will Lagarde and Powell tell the markets anything new? Recall that last week the Fed meeting was held, and a week earlier - the ECB meeting. Naturally, each of the meetings was followed by a speech by the Chairman of the Central Bank. Further, the reaction of the markets to these events was very poor. Moreover, both Lagarde and Powell have already said everything they could and should have said. Therefore, it is quite possible that they will not tell the markets anything interesting today.

In general, the fundamental background remains not in favor of the US dollar. In America, the overall situation remains much more complex and unattractive for investors. The "coronavirus", conflicts and inconsistencies in the highest political sphere, and absolute uncertainty in the future due to the elections have a strong negative impact. Moreover, investors and traders don't like uncertainty. Now there is so much news associated with the name of Trump that it is completely unclear what to expect from the US President in the near future. It is unclear whether he will be able to win the election again against all odds. However, for the US dollar, this is not even important now, since it has been trading inside the side channel for almost two months in a pair with the euro and cannot leave it.

As of September 21, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Buying a pair at this time is still not recommended for novice traders, since the upward movement occurring at this time is not predicted from a technical point of view. Quite unexpectedly, the pair's quotes returned to the upper area of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, in which, again, it is better to consider sales than purchases. You can consider long positions if the pair overcomes the upper line of the channel, but even if this happens today, it is unlikely that the price will go up any more significant distance.

2) Sales now still look more attractive, however, there are no technical patterns that could give a signal to sell. Thus, the MACD indicator, turning down, may give a sell signal, however, we believe that it will be unclear and unconfirmed. Novice traders must decide for themselves whether to work out this signal or not. The nearest targets for short positions are the support levels of 1.1820 and 1.1801.

What's on the chart:

Price support and resistance levels – the levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

Up/down arrows – show when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator(10,20,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines(channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 21, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Daily transactions on the Ethereum blockchain have just hit a new all-time record. On September 17, the number of daily transactions on the Ethereum network was 1,406,000, according to data from Ethereum's main browser, Etherscan. This is the highest number of daily transactions ever recorded on the Ethereum network.

According to Etherscan, the previous all-time record was on January 4, 2018, reaching around 1,350,000 transactions during the day.

A new historic peak in Ethereum's daily transactions comes amid the ongoing boom in decentralized finance. The DeFi industry grew at a rapid pace in 2020, with the total value locked in the market reaching $ 9 billion in August 2020. Amid the apparent hype of DeFi, many of the world's major exchanges such as Binance and OKEx were in a rush to replace DeFi tokens.

As most DeFi applications to date are built on the Ethereum network, the exponential growth in the DeFi industry has created significant levels of congestion as well as scalability issues. As a result, Ethereum's network commissions or gas fees soared, resulting in Ethereum miners earning a record $ 500,000 in fees in one hour on September 1. After Uniswap launched the UNI token, Ethereum's transaction fees rose to nearly $ 1 million per hour today.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has fallen out of the ascending channel and made a fresh new low at the level of $371.34. The level of $375.52 will now act as a technical resistance for the price and the level of $362.60 will be a technical support. The momentum has decreased as well and now is negative and weak according to the RSI indicator. This kind of price action might be the beginning of a deeper pull-back, but the weekly trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $426.36

WR2 - $409.08

WR1 - $387.32

Weekly Pivot - $370.45

WS1 - $348.67

WS2 - $331.18

WS3 - $309.49

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 21, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Renowned entrepreneur and author Jeff Booth has backed Bitcoin as a "must" investment at a time when central banks are exacerbating the escalation of the debt problem. Comments appeared on Twitter in a thread discussing the notion that central banks believe they can somehow avoid the massive debt problem by increasing their debt exponentially.

Jeff Booth, author of The Price of Tomorrow, pointed out that even before the COVID-19 pandemic added fuel to the fire, global debt was $ 250 trillion in a global economy worth around $ 88 trillion, of which $ 185 trillion was added to the fire over the past 20 years. According to statistics, the United States ranks first on the list of public debt with over 10% of global total debt and a steadily growing amount of $ 26.7 trillion.

Booth thinks the only two options left are grim. The first is the government default on global debt as a result of a deflationary depression, which would mean a collapse of the banking system, or the default as a result of hyperinflation, which seems to begin with mass printing of money:

"In my humble opinion, Bitcoin is a must. Not only for its wealth, but also as a lifeboat."

Booth's publication is a sharp warning of two dangerous economic trends that he believes are largely ignored. He argues that technology and price deflation will result in persistent and widespread unemployment, while the world economy is supported by an unstable mountain of debt. With that in mind, Bitcoin may be one of the few remaining lifeboats available.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of the ascending channel for all the weekend and is still hovering around the level of $10,940 which is a local technical resistance for a price. The upside momentum has clearly decreased ahead of the supply zone and if the bearish pressure intensify, the market might make a correction towards the level of $10,703 (intraday support) or $10,586 (technical support). The weekly trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,186

WR2 - $11,616

WR1 - $11,271

Weekly Pivot - $10,739

WS1 - $10,293

WS2 - $9,807

WS3 - $9,393

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 21, 2020

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We continue to look for a clear signal that GBP/JPY has bottomed in red wave iv/ and red wave v/ to above 142.72 finally is in motion. A break above resistance at 136.59 will be that signal.

In the short-term, we think that minor support near 134.37 will be able to protect the downside for a new test of short-term key-resistance at 136.59 and a break above here will confirm red wave /4 having completed and red wave v taking off.

R3: 136.59

R2: 136.10

R1: 135.58

Pivot: 135.35

S1: 135.09

S2: 134.78

S3: 134.56

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP upon a break above minor resistance at 135.35 and place our stop at 134.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 21, 2020

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EUR/JPY peaked at 124.31 just as expected and began its decent to 123.05 from where a new minor correction close to 123.90 is expected and then a final decline to 122.16 to complete wave 2/ and set the stage for a new impulsve rally in wave 3/.

The is a second option, which is that more sideways consolidation is see before the final decline to 122.16, but no matter what option turns out to be correct, more downside pressure should be expected before wave 2/ is complete.

R3: 124.52

R1: 124.30

R1: 123.95

Pivot: 123.81

S1: 123.63

S2: 123.44

S3: 123.05

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 123.90 and we will move our stop lower to 124.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 21, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro traded in a 44-point range last Friday, closing the day down by a few points. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning down, which strengthens the declining market sentiment. It looks like the euro will not suddenly move up before a reversal into a medium-term decline.

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But the price needs to accomplish two tasks to launch such a scenario: to gain a foothold below the MACD line, to overcome the signal level of 1.1760. We saw the price move below this signal level on Thursday, but without setting the price below the MACD line, which ultimately brought the price back above it.

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The price is also staying above the MACD line on the four-hour chart. At the moment, the MACD lines on the daily and four-hour charts are similar in value (1.1840), which further enhances the importance of price taking below this level. The Marlin oscillator continues to move sideways/horizontally along the neutral line. We are waiting for the price to settle under 1.1840, overcoming the signal level of 1.1760 and a succeeding decline towards 1.1650, 1.1550.

An alternative scenario assumes that the euro will rise to the upper border of the price channel at 1.1988, but on this path the price has two strong resistances set by the consolidation structure from the beginning of August, these are 1.1900 and 1.1960. The price can also reverse and move down from any of them. We are waiting for the development of events.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 21, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound lost around 60 points on Friday in excitement, due to a new negotiating week regarding the Brexit issue. So far, there have been no positive developments in this process, and from a technical point of view, the situation is becoming more bearish. The Marlin oscillator turns to the downside on the daily chart. The price failed to break through the area above the Fibonacci level of 61.8%, but now it is heading towards the nearest level of 100.0%, which is the first target of the bears and also the February 28 low (1.2725). Once the first target is overcome, the second target opens at the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.2645.

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The price has not yet settled in the area above or below the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is directed to the downside, but also "contends" with the neutral line of the oscillator. If the price settles below Friday's closing level of 1.2912, the downward scenario will begin to unwind. This is our main plan.

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The alternative involves resolving and reaching the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.3026 and possible succeeding growth to the Fibonacci level of 50.0% at the price of 1.3120.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 21, 2020

AUD/USD

The dollar index strengthened by 0.10% on Friday, it was enough for the overbought Australian to fall by 22 points (-0.30%). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has sharply turned down and penetrated the zone of negative values, although it is trying to go back up at the moment. We assume this is the effect of price fluctuations. We expect the price to overcome the first target of 0.7249 (September 10 low) and continue to fall to the second target of 0.7110 (August 12 low).

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The price fluctuates around the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. On the technical side, this means waiting for another impulse from the external market. The Marlin oscillator turned into a new wave of decline from the border of the growth area, which is a leading sign of a market reversal.

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We are waiting for the technical signals to be confirmed. This will probably not happen until Tuesday.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 21, 2020

USD/JPY

USD/JPY has been declining for eight consecutive days. There are no signs of stopping this movement on the daily chart. The price aims for 103.75, determined by the Fibonacci reaction level of 138.2% from the base branch of the movement on March 24-May 7.

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The price has formed a small double convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the 4-hour chart, but with the trend currently being strong, it can be broken. We are waiting for the pair to fall to the designated target.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 21. COT report. Disappointing news from the UK

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair traded with a downward bias again on Friday, September 18, and by the end of the day it reached the critical Kijun-sen line, and also came close to the lower line of the rising channel. Thus, market participants show that they are going to return to selling the pound. This is also evidenced by the price rebounding from the resistance area of 1.3005-1.3025 and several downward reversals near it. So now the bears only have to overcome the rising channel and the pound can go into a new prolonged fall. The bullish prospects will remain if a rebound occurs from the Kijun-sen line. Then the pair may try to return to the 1.3005-1.3025 area again.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lower channel turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, a downward movement is possible due to several failures in the 1.3005-1.3025 area. The new Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the pound, which came out last Friday, was very, very expressive. The previous report showed that professional traders became more bullish despite the fact that the British currency fell 700 points in price. The new COT report turned out to be much more logical. Non-commercial traders closed 4,500 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 7,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) during September 9-15. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders decreased by 11,500 contracts at once. This is very significant, since this group holds a total number of 81,000 contracts. Therefore, this time the data of the COT report coincides with the nature of trading in the foreign exchange market. The behavior of commercial traders was even more interesting, as they closed 37,000 Buy-contracts and 45,000 Sell-contracts in just a week. This suggests that many large players are currently not interested in the pound as an investment currency. The future of the UK and its economy is so uncertain that traders are not interested in buying or selling. Commercial traders are hedgers and, judging by the COT report, they simply switch to other currencies rather than use the pound in their accounts. The COT report at this time will not provide much help in predicting the pair's succeeding movement, since almost everything depends on the fundamental background at the moment.

Fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair was neutral on Friday. However, this is only on Friday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the second wave of the epidemic has begun in the country, which means that a deterioration in economic sentiment and business activity can be expected in the near future. Johnson assured that the government is not going to introduce tough quarantine measures in the country, however, no matter how pathetic it sounds, it is not up to him to decide. If the pandemic gains momentum and exceeds the incidence rate of the first wave, when the healthcare system was barely able to cope with the influx of patients, then like it or not, a new lockdown or "hard" quarantine will have to be introduced. In addition, the country still has problems in the form of a lack of a trade deal with the European Union, as well as a possible conflict with the EU on the basis of Johnson's new bill on the UK internal market. Any news on these three topics could potentially trigger another fall for the pound.

We have two trading ideas for September 18:

1) Buyers, although they have support in the form of a rising channel, failed to overcome the 1.3004-1.3024 area twice, so long term upward movement is in doubt. You can open new long positions in case the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen line (1.2910) and the lower channel line while aiming for the resistance area of 1.3005-1.3025 and the Senkou Span B line (1.3060). Take Profit in this case will be from 80 to 130 points.

2) Sellers only need to leave the rising channel and it will open up amazing prospects. If the price settles below the critical line (1.2910) and below the rising channel, we recommend selling the British currency while aiming for 1.2661. The target is distant and may take several days to reach it. Take Profit in this case can be about 200 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 21. COT report. Boring Friday gives way to dull Monday. Or not?

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair was indistinctly trading on the hourly timeframe on Friday, September 18. If the pair traded ambiguously earlier because it proceeded in a narrow price range (1.17-1.19), then on Friday it was trading indistinctly because it was in an even more narrow price range, only about 50 points... Thus, market participants simply left ahead of schedule for the weekend. The pair crossed the Senkou Span B line at the end of the trading week, which is irrelevant at this time. All the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, although they remain relatively strong, nevertheless, do not signal a trend in the flat or even when prices rebound from them. Therefore, formally, you can expect to move to the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910, but the probability of this is 50/50. Just like the probability of moving down to the support area of 1.1704-1.1728.

EUR/USD 15M

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The higher linear regression channel turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, and the lower one moved down, which implies that the pair might start moving down on the hourly timeframe. The EUR/USD pair continued to trade in the 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel last week. Thus, even if there were changes in the mood of large traders, it did not show on the pair's chart. And there were changes. Non-commercial traders closed as many as 17,000 Buy-contracts (longs) and only 1,500 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week (September 9-15). Thus, the sentiment of the most important group of traders, "non-commercial", has changed towards a bearish one. The net position for this group of traders also decreased by 15,000 contracts. And this, in turn, means that professional traders began to look towards buying the US dollar and selling the euro. Commercial traders also actively closed both types of contracts. However, we are less interested in this group. There are still no results of all these changes. And from September 16 to this day, the EUR/USD pair's movements still does not provide reasons to assume that they will appear in the near future. Thus, the changes reflected in the COT report do not coincide with what is currently happening in the foreign exchange market.

Not a single important macroeconomic report in the European Union on Friday, just an insignificant consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the United States. Therefore, it is easy to explain why volatility was low and trading was absolutely calm. There was no other news of a general nature either. Thus, traders can only wait for news and new macroeconomic data. The macroeconomic events calendar is completely blank on Monday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may deliver a speech, but not all news calendars contain this event. With a high degree of probability, the day will be absolutely empty and, most likely, absolutely indistinct trading with low volatility will continue.

We have two trading ideas for September 18:

1) Buyers could not break through several resistances near the upper line of the $1.17-1.19 horizontal channel. Therefore, we advise you to consider long positions once the 1.1884-1.1910 area has been overcome, and then you can aim for the resistance level at 1.2003. Take Profit in this case will be about 60 points.

2) Bears, with grief, pulled down the pair in half to the lower area of the horizontal channel (1.17-1.19), but also did not stay there for a long time. The upward movement resumed, so now the bears need to wait until they consolidate the price below the Kijun-sen line (1.1819) in order to open short positions while aiming for the support level at 1.1760. The potential Take Profit in this case is about 45 points. We remind you that the pair's current movements are absolutely indistinct and most closely corresponds to the meaning of the word flat.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 21. The UK will lose much more from the lack of a Brexit deal than from the "coronavirus

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 24.5593

After the British currency collapsed by 700 points down, a correction began, which continues to this day. Quotes of the pound/dollar pair broke the moving average line, but could not go far up. Thus, the downward trend may resume in the near future. However, there are questions here. The first round of the downward movement was frankly provoked by the fundamental background from the UK. Thus, for the same strong and powerful fall of the British pound in the second round, new fundamental reasons are needed, which are not yet observed. Thus, further downward movement may be quite weak, since all the problems of the US have not gone away, which means that demand for the dollar may begin to fall in the near future. As for the bill "on the internal market of Great Britain", which "started all this mess", the markets realized that so far London has not violated any international agreements, and Boris Johnson can use this law as blackmail or bluff in negotiations with the European Union. Thus, it is absolutely not necessary that London will go to conflict with the European Union at all. Boris Johnson cannot fail to understand all the consequences of this step.

Meanwhile, expert agencies and economists continue to calculate the possible damage from the UK's exit from the EU without a deal. It turned out that the damage from the lack of a trade agreement will be much higher than the damage from the "coronavirus crisis". Recall that Britain suffered a record contraction in the economy, falling by 20% in the second quarter. Now it turns out that the losses from a "hard" divorce from the EU will be even worse. In fact, this is what we have been talking about in recent years. The British economy is suffering huge losses just because the Brexit process is launched. After the UK leaves the EU and officially loses access to the free market, the economy will lose billions of dollars more. The trade turnover with the European Union will be reduced, and the British government is still unable to offer new markets to British businessmen. Only a couple of weeks ago, it became known about the conclusion of a free trade agreement with Japan, which is only 15 billion dollars. This is the first agreement signed by an independent London. Experts from the investment bank Goldman Sachs conducted research and found that the long-term consequences of not having a deal with the EU are two or three times greater than the damage caused by the "coronavirus crisis". Thus, the prospects for the British economy remain vague, and with the arrival of 2021, the British economy may experience another shock. At the same time, do not forget that just a couple of days ago, Boris Johnson announced that the second "wave" of the COVID-2019 epidemic has begun in the country. Thus, it is absolutely possible that even before the onset of 2021, the UK economy will begin to slow down. In general, if we look at the long term, we would make a forecast that it is the British currency that will remain prone to falling.

There are no major macroeconomic events scheduled for the first trading day of the new week in the UK. Thus, the entire fundamental background of the day will be reduced to the performance of Jerome Powell.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 122 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Monday, September 21, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2790 and 1.3034. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downward may signal about a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3062

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair settled below the moving average line on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to consider options for opening short positions with targets of 1.2817 and 1.2695 as long as the price is below the moving average, and the Heiken Ashi is directed downward. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.3034 and 1.3062 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 21. The assassination attempt on Donald Trump.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 11.7051

A new trading week begins on the Forex currency market and this can become "one of" a whole series of weeks in which the euro/dollar pair is trading in a frank flat. As we have repeatedly noted, it is very inconvenient to trade any instrument in a sideways movement. On the one hand, the quotes do not go beyond the designated range, thus, you can almost always expect the price to return to the original position if the transaction was opened incorrectly. On the other hand, it is always more convenient to trade on the trend, and not when the pair is "stormy" and every day we see a "swing". Thus, the pair starts the new week in the same flat that it has been in for almost two months, and traders can only hope that it will end this week. As a rule, any pair needs a good reason to change direction. A striking example of this is the pound sterling, which has fallen by 700 points since September 1 due to news of a new bill by Boris Johnson that violates previously reached agreements with the EU. Something similar is needed for the euro/dollar pair to leave the range of 1.17-1.19. Most likely, "something like this" should be expected from America, where the rapid news flow continues to flow almost non-stop. Everything is quiet and peaceful in the European Union.

Meanwhile, nothing optimistic is happening in the States. The coronavirus continues to rage, with approximately 40,000 new cases reported daily. Donald Trump again stopped the "coronavirus briefings" and now only makes statements from time to time about the creation of a vaccine in the very near future, as well as about the beginning of vaccination of the population in October. Naturally, these statements of Trump are immediately criticized by many doctors, epidemiologists, and virologists, who continue to insist that creating a vaccine against a new virus requires a very long time – consuming process that can take from a year to two. Thus, even if a vaccine will be created before the end of 2020 (assuming that it passed all necessary clinical tests and is proven safe and effective for all segments of the population), in mass production, it will arrive no earlier than 2021, and the number of required doses will be created until mid-2021. It should be understood that about 330 million people live in the United States alone. Accordingly, it is necessary to create about 330 million doses of the vaccine. Not to mention export doses, since pharmaceutical companies that invent the vaccine will want to make money in other countries. Thus, we believe that the process of gradual vaccination of humanity should not be expected before the middle of 2021. However, Donald Trump can't wait until mid-2021. He needs to create the appearance of starting the vaccination process before November 3, 2020, when elections will be held in America. And all the processes in the country are now going through the prism of future elections. And the US dollar remains an outsider because of all this.

Meanwhile, it became known that last week, someone tried to poison Donald Trump. Unknown attackers sent a package to the White House that contained the poison ricin. The parcel was intercepted by the security services, conducted several tests, and confirmed that the substance contained in it is indeed poison ricin. Also, a new scandal is brewing in the White House, which is related to the possible dismissal of the head of the FBI, Christopher Wray. The Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation published a report saying that the main threat to the US presidential election is Russia and various right-wing groups. The report did not say anything about China and left-wing groups, which did not please Donald Trump, who benefits from considering China to be the culprit of all the troubles. Moreover, Trump believes that China supports Joe Biden in the election. Consequently, China is also interfering in the presidential election. According to Trump, "China should be at the very top of the list of threats to America." In general, the report of the FBI Director simply did not meet Trump's expectations, thus, Christopher Wray can now be fired.

Meanwhile, recent opinion polls and surveys have shown that there is no reduction in the gap between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Recall that in the last two weeks, some opinion polls showed that Trump has reduced the gap in political ratings to almost 5%. So in fact, the gap is still about 10% and has not significantly decreased or changed at all over the past two months. We have already questioned this information (that Trump is catching up with Biden) since nothing has happened in recent months that could increase Trump's ratings and lower Biden's ratings. So now Joe Biden just needs to not lose his advantage, which he formed a month and a half before the election.

As for macroeconomic events and reports, nothing interesting is planned for the first trading day of the week. Some news calendars include a speech by Jerome Powell, so some information may still fall into the hands of traders at the beginning of the week. However, we strongly doubt that Powell will tell the markets something important that has not yet been reported after the end of the Fed meeting last week. Thus, the activity of the markets on Monday will directly depend on what the head of the Fed will report.

From a technical point of view, the pair continues to trade not even between the levels of 1.17 and 1.19, but between the volatility levels of 1.1768 and 1.1910. Thus, fixing the price above the moving average can be used to open very short-term long positions.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 21 is 71 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1768 and 1.1910. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back up signals a round of upward movement in the remaining side channel of $ 1.17 - $ 1.19.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has fixed above the moving average line but continues to trade in an absolute flat. Thus, formally, we can now consider long positions with the goal of the volatility level of 1.1910, after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top. It is recommended to re-consider options for opening short positions if the pair is fixed back below the moving average with a target near the level of 1.1768.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 21? Getting ready for Monday session

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair tried to start a new round of downward movement within the 1.1700-1.1900 channel on Friday, September 18. There were two attempts. The first was unsuccessful, and it is too early to draw conclusions on the second. The downward movement began on Friday, but did not last long, as trades were closed. Unfortunately for novice traders, the overall technical picture on Friday did not become clear at all. The pair still continues to trade in the 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel, but there were internal trend channels and trend lines earlier, from time to time, and now there is nothing like that. The movements have become more chaotic and "ragged" in the last few days. The last trend line, which we talked about in recent reports, could provide a sell signal, but did not do so. Therefore, it has already been canceled, and there are still no new technical patterns. In general, trading is now extremely difficult, especially for novice traders. You can trade at your own peril and risk only on one factor. The pair is in the upper area of the horizontal channel once again; therefore, it is much more advisable to sell from here than to buy. Accordingly, you can hypothetically work with each MACD sell signal.

There was practically no fundamental background on Friday. No important and interesting events took place either in America or in the European Union. The markets completely retreated and recovered after the Federal Reserve meeting and eventually they did not understand which way to trade the pair. There was also not a single macroeconomic report during the day that deserved the attention of traders. The Michigan Institute's Consumer Confidence Index was released in the US in the afternoon, which exceeded forecasted values and reached 78.9. However, just as expected, it had no effect on the pair's movement.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech on Monday, September 21. His last speech could be interpreted in different ways, since the theses that he voiced are not unambiguous and do not relate to the current state of the economy and its prospects. Simply put, market participants have not yet understood what to expect from the Fed in the future. There are only two options here: 1) further easing of monetary policy (bearish factor for the dollar); 2) unchanged monetary policy for several years. The Fed may still use other instruments to stimulate the economy even if the key rate does not go down any more. Or, at least, to declare the need for new stimulation of the economy. Traders are interested in this kind of information. And you can see for yourself that Powell's speech from last Wednesday had no effect on the dollar, even over several days.

Possible scenarios for September 21:

1) Novice traders are still not recommended to place buy positions at this time, since the price failed to overcome the 1.1903 level once again, which is the upper line of the horizontal channel. In addition, there is not a single serious pattern that would support the upward trend now. Lastly, quotes are currently in the upper area of the horizontal channel, in which it is more logical to consider sell positions.

2) Selling still looks more attractive now, since traders have not overcome the 1.1903 level. Thus, novice traders may consider opening new short positions on a new sell signal from the MACD indicator while aiming for 1.1813 and 1.1772. However, keep in mind that all signals from MACD alone will be interpreted as weak. There is no trend line or channel. It is better to wait until morning to open new positions on Monday.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com