Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 10, 2017

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We retain our yesterday's bearish outlook for GBP/JPY. The pair is trading in a lower range and is still expected to post some further downside moves. The relative strength index is around its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Nevertheless, 143.35 is playing a key resistance role, which should limit the upside potential.

As long as this key level at 143.35 is not broken, the pair is likely to test the next support at 141.90. A break below this level would call for a further decline towards 141.45.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a long position is recommended above 143.35 with the target at 143.65.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 143.35, Take Profit: 143.35.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 143.65, 144.15, and 144.35

Support levels: 141.90, 141.45, and 140.65.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 10, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is still under pressure and expected to trade with a bearish outlook. Although the pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, it is still trading below the key resistance at 0.7315, which should limit the upside potential. Even though a continuation of technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, as long as 0.7315 holds on the upside, a further drop to 0.7240 and even to 0.7210 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation:

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7350, 0.7370, and 0.7390

Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7210, and 0.7180

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GBP/USD analysis for August 10, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3000. The price met our target at 1.2950 and then rejected. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a trading range between the price of 1.3015 (resistance) and the price of 1.2950 (support). Since the price is testing the resistance at the moment, my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2950 and 1.2900. The short - term trend is about to change from bullish to bearish.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3035

R2: 1.3060

R3: 1.3100

Support levels:

S1: 1.2970

S2: 1.2935

S3: 1.2910

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for August 10, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1740. According to the 4H time frame, I found broken bullish channel in the background and testing of supply trendline, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found lower lows and lower highs, whici is another sign of potential change in trend dynamic from bullish to bearish. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1630 and 1.1500.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1790

R2: 1.1815

R3: 1.1865

Support levels:

S1: 1.1710

S2: 1.1660

S3: 1.1630

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 10, 2017

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Technical outlook:

Again, the Wave Principle proves how precise it can be if done properly! The EUR/USD pair prints low at 1.1700 and slightly lower as expected after breaking out of triangle structure as expected, before pulling back sharply. We have presented a short term hourly chart here, which indicates that a counter trend rally is in place now. After 5 waves down, a 3 wave counter trend rally A-B-C is nicely set up. The pair has already completes waves A and B as shown here and is on its way to print wave C higher towards 1.1820/30 levels from here. Immediate support is at 1.1687 levels while resistance is at 1.1830 levels respectively. Also note that resistance trend line would also be passing through the same levels then. Immediate short term structure is to rally and then turn lower again.

Trading plan:

Please buy now for an upside target of 1.1820/30 levels with a stop below 1.1687 levels. Time period 1-2 days. Then turn lower again.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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The GBP/USD is no different from EUR/USD as discussed here. The wave principle and counts suggest that it has completed 5 waves (impulse) lower, from 1.3267 through 1.2950 levels earlier. As depicted on the hourly chart here, the pair has drifted sideways for 2 days and is unfolding as a flat at this moment in time. The wave structure from 1.2950 is A-B and each wave sub divides into 3 waves. The next high probability wave should be on the north side, and sub divides into 5 waves, hence competing for a 3-3-5 corrective wave. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3060 levels, while support is at 1.2950 levels respectively. If the above counts hold true, GBPUSD is looking to push higher towards 1.3140 levels from here, before turning lower again.

Trading plan:

Please remain long for now, with a stop below 1.2950 levels, targeting 1.3140 levels. Time frame 1-2 days, then turn lower again.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for MXN Monetary Policy Rate Decision around 0200 PM EST today.

Good luck!

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 10, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which is temporarily breached to the upside.

A Recent bearish pullback is being executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 brings the EUR/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where price action should be watched for further decisions.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 10, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair was trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1850 and 1.2000-1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where price action should be watched carefully.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (in confluence with the depicted uptrend) stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched during the current bearish pullback.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for August 10, 2017

After an impulsive bullish move breaking above 1.4720 resistance level, the pair is currently residing in a corrective structure below 1.4970 resistance level. EUR has been quite stronger than CAD despite the hawkish market and Bank of Canada Sentiments. Recently both the currency in the pair has been producing mixed economic reports for which the pair is currently residing inside a corrective range. Recently CAD Housing Starts report was published with an increased figure to 222k from the previous figure of 213k which was expected to decrease to 204k and Building Permits were published positive at 2.5% which was better than expected result of -1.8% but worst of the previous value of 10.7%. Today CAD NHPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.7%. On the other hand, today EUR French Industrial Production report was published with worse figure at -1.1% from the previous value of 1.9% which was expected to be at -0.6% and Italian Trade Balance report was published with an increased figure of 4.50B from the previous figure of 4.34B which was expected to decrease to 3.87B. To sum up, due to mixed economic reports still in process for both the currencies of the pair the corrective structure is expected to continue further but if CAD report today comes out better than expected then we can expect bearish pressure in this pair which is expected to last for certain period.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing inside a corrective volatile structure below the resistance level of 1.4970. There were a few bullish rejections off the level which also signals the bearish intervention in the pair which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure with a target towards 1.4730 support level in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.4970 with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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The euro does not intend to give up

Eurozone

A strong employment report, along with speeches by FOMC members and the ripe technical reasons provoked a recovery of the dollar against most of its competitors, but there is still no certainty that the euro is ready to give its leadership to the dollar.

The Sentix economic index in August for the eurozone was 27.7p This is somewhat lower than the 28.3p a month earlier, but still indicates a steady growth. Investors' expectations have been growing for the eighth month in a row and have reached 40p, which is the highest since November 2007.

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The Sentix index is often seen by investors as an advance indicator. Since it is slightly earlier than similar studies from Ifo or Markit, it predicts market reversals. At the current period, the release contains a specific warning. Despite the fact that the expectations are at the 10-year peak, the index for Germany once again declined, the second time since February, and signs of a slowdown appeared. Germany is the engine of the entire European economy, its slowdown will inevitably have an impact on all intra-European processes.

Meanwhile the euro is supported by a number of geopolitical factors. After North Korea warned Washington about a possible attack of the US military base on the island of Guam, the demand for gold and the Japanese yen increased briskly, as well as the franc and euro, which in the current situation can be considered as defensive assets, also rose in a second echelon.

The momentum for the euro is slowing, but it is still too early to predict a confident turnaround. Markets will be waiting for tomorrow's report on US inflation, and the absence of significant macroeconomic factors will contribute to the flight into the lateral range.

United Kingdom

Today, the Office of National Statistics will publish data on industrial production and the trade balance in June. Weak data from the previous month played a role in the pound's lost growth momentum, and players need new data to reassess prospects. The forecast is conditionally positive. It is expected that the industry will show symbolic growth, and good data will be able to support the pound.

The NIESR will also publish its forecast for GDP growth. Its assessment has a significant impact on market expectations, as it is priced in by the Bank of England in the development of monetary policy. At the moment, the economy of Britain looks affected by the Brexit referendum, as its growth slowed down relative to other G10 countries, and general weakness serves as a deterrent for the Bank of England. The fall of the pound last week was provoked largely by this factor, and the need for decisive action to curb inflation was limited by weak economic growth.

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Political uncertainty also has a negative influence on the pound. Negotiations on Brexit are slow, and the first phase will not be completed in October, as it was assumed recently. Because of the weak results of the parliamentary elections, the position of Theresa May seems unconvincing, and the divided cabinet complicates the negotiations, since it does not in any way give a clear understanding the results the United Kingdom wants to achieve. The key question at the moment is whether Britain is ready to compromise and pay for its exit. The situation is aggravated by the probability of May being overthrown from her post at the Conservative Party's conference in October.

Pound positions look weak, and there are few reasons for the resumption of the upward trend. The pound may fall by the end of the week below 1.29.

Oil and ruble

Oil prices almost did not react to the report of the US Department of Energy on reserves, which was slightly worse than expected. OPEC countries did not provide new information to players, which led to the stabilization of prices at just above $52/bbl. A startling factor is the decline in China's oil imports, which may indicate a slowdown in China's economy, but so far this scenario is preliminary and does not deny the impact on long-term forecasts.

In the absence of significant drivers, the Russian ruble continues to trade in a narrow range of about 60 rubles per dollar.

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Global macro overview for 10/08/2017

Global macro overview for 10/08/2017:

A mixed set of Japanese economic data disappointed the global investors. The Core Machinery Orders decreased 1.9% on monthly basis, while the market participants expected a 3.7% increase after -3.4% fall a month ago. Moreover, Tertiary Industry Activity did not increase as much as anticipated (0.0% vs. 0.2%, -0.1% prior).

The data are shedding some doubt on what had looked to be a developing domestic demand pick up. But this was partly offset by some stronger PPI data. The Producer Price Index increased 2.6% on yearly basis, while the market participants expected 2.4% increase, after 2.2% figure a month ago. Nevertheless, none of this set of data is a real game-changer as the Bank of Japan will likely keep its wait-and-see approach and will keep monitoring the economic developments. This one-off miss in the overall mini up trend of the domestic economic recovery pace and will not likely change the BoJ monetary stance: it will still remain highly accommodative. In the result, the Japanese Yen will still be sought after across the board, especially if the US - North Korea conflict escalate more as the Yen is still being perceived as safe-heaven currency.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price is slowly approaching the long-term support at the level of 108.79. Recently the market has failed to break out above the 61%Fibo at the level of 110.97 and reversed to continue to down trend. The current market conditions look oversold, but the chance for another leg down is still high as the momentum indicator remains below fifty level.

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Trading plan for 10/08/2017

Trading plan for 10/08/2017:

RBNZ left the monetary policy parameters unchanged, so the NZD is the biggest loser across the board. Another down session hit the Asian stock market: Hang Seng lost -1.0%, and Shanghai Composite and Nikkei 225 lost -0.8%. The precious metals are gaining on negative sentiment - Gold is up 0.12% at $1278, Silver is up 0.3% and Palladium is up 0.25%.

On Thursday 10th of August, the event calendar is quite busy with important economic releases. First, France will post Industrial Production data, then the UK will present Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and Visible Trade Balance data. During the US session, Canada will reveal New Housing Price Index and the US will post PPI and Core PPI, Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims data.

GBP/USD analysis for 10.08/2017:

The Industrial and Manufacturing Production data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and the market participants expect Industrial Production to increase 0.1% on monthly basis after -0.1% dip last month. Manufacturing Production is expected to increase slightly as well, from -0.2% last month to 0.0% in July. On yearly basis, the Manufacturing Production is expected to increase from 0.4% to 0.7%. The recent set of data from the UK was not really particularly good and there are still some uncertainties regarding the result of the Brexit negotiations and post-Brexit economic performance. Moreover, the recent tensions between the US and North Korea might cause deeper risk-off sentiment and then the global investors will quickly buy reserve currency, the US Dollar, and abandon the British Pound. It is worth to have is in the back of the head these days.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market failed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.3031 and now the price is moving lower towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2932. IF the data will be worse than expected, then this level will be tested and possibly violated with ease. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2811.

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Market Snapshot: AUD/USD at the critical support

The price of AUD/USD is currently trading at the technical support at the level of 0.7874 as the bulls are still trying to push the prices higher. Nevertheless, the upside momentum is diminishing and it is possible the price will move down towards the next support at the level of 0.7838 despite the oversold market conditions.

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Market Snapshot: Gold breaks above 78% Fibo

The price of Gold is gaining on the negative sentiment and it breaks above the 78%Fibo at the level of 1275 making the level of 1280 a new local high. The momentum indicator is still pointing to the upside, so if the bulls will keep pushing the price higher, then the recent swing high at the level of 1296 is next to be tested.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for August 9, 2017

Forex analysis review
Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for August 9, 2017

Daily analysis of major pairs for August 10, 2017

EUR/USD: There remains a bullish bias on the market, though the bias is now under threat (owing to an ongoing medium-term consolidation in the market)A movement of about 200 pips to the downside would result in a bearish bias, while a movement of about 100 pips from here would emphasize the extent bullish bias.

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USD/CHF: This pair went sideways on Monday and Tuesday; managed to test the resistance level at 0.9750 and the dropped below the resistance level at 0.9700. The drop has created a bearish signal, which is supposed to continue as price goes further downwards, reaching the support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9550.

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GBP/USD: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the GBP/USD 4-hour chart. Price has moved lower this week and it is currently consolidating in the context of a downtrend. Following the consolidation, there would be another leg of a bearish journey, which would enable price to test the accumulation territories at 1.2950 and 1.2900.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY is currently a bear market – which is supposed to continue its weakness. The outlook on JPY pairs remains bearish and the price would test the demand levels at 109.50, 109.00 and 108.50 within the next few trading days. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have an impact on the market.

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EUR/JPY: This cross lost about 200 pips this week, testing the demand zone at 128.50, before the current volatility and weak bullish effort. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means further weakness is anticipated.

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Global macro overview for 10/08/2017

Global macro overview for 10/08/2017:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate (OCR)unchanged at the level of 1.75% as expected. In the official statement, the RBNZ said, that monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative for a long time, in order to support growth and guide inflation towards the RBNZ's target on a sustained basis. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly as the lower NZD is needed. Longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at around 2% and future headline inflation is projected to reach the midpoint of the target band over medium-term. Headline inflation is likely to decline in coming quarters, but global growth has increased and domestic economic growth is expected to improve.

This dovish tone of the statement was broadly expected given the weaker balance of economic data over the last few months. However, while the RBNZ acknowledged the recent softer data, it held the line on just about every aspect of its forecasts as the projected OCR path was identical to the June statement. The RBNZ is maintaining a relatively positive view on the domestic growth outlook, continues to see the unemployment rate trending lower, and wage growth rising. As such, non-tradable inflation still rises gradually within the forecasts. Moreover, the overall tone of the statement signals clearly that it is going to take a lot of accumulated evidence to warrant a departure from this cautious stance in either direction. For now, the NZD is weakening across the board and further weakness is anticipated.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After the interest rate news was released, the price moved lower towards the level of 0.7333 support and broke below it. The market conditions are oversold, but the price action remains sideways. The technical resistance at the level of 0.7333 is the key to the upside for bulls.

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Gold received news from North Korea

The squabble between Pyongyang and Donald Trump raised demand for reliable assets and allowed gold to quickly recover losses incurred after the publication of statistics on the US labor market for July. TD Securities did not particularly believe that the growth of non-farm payrolls by 209 thousand could lower the price of XAU / USD below $ 1,250 an ounce, arguing that the Fed's sluggishness and geopolitical risks around North Korea will allow precious metals to stay afloat. The company watched as the water: the preparation of a miniature nuclear warhead built into a rocket, and the response of the US president in the style of "fire and sword," followed by Pyongyang's threat of an attack on Guam forced investors to seek refuge.

Gold looked with caution at the upcoming releases on US inflation and chewed information on the growth of Indian imports to 53.4 tons in June compared to 22 tons a year earlier. Since the beginning of the year, the supplies of precious metal to this country have jumped by more than 2.5 times compared to the same period in 2016. The figure has risen to 625.5 tons. Moreover, the second half of this year is most likely not so fruitful. The World Gold Council predicts that in 2017, domestic demand for metal will be 650-750 tons.

As for inflation, expectations of its acceleration, at first glance, could support the bulls for XAU / USD, because gold is traditionally considered an instrument of protection against price increases. In fact, investors fear that the nominal yield of US treasury bonds will rise faster than CPI, which will lead to an increase in real rates of the debt market. Given the existing correlations, this factor is negative for precious metals.

Dynamics of gold and real yield of US bonds

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Source: Bloomberg.

The escalation of the geopolitical conflict on the Korean peninsula has become a real revelation for the markets. Tension immediately tried to smooth. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that the American people have nothing to fear, but Pyongyang misunderstood the diplomatic language of Trump. The president only said he was ready to defend the United States and its allies. At the same time, Beijing called for calm and negotiation.

It should be borne in mind that outbreaks of geopolitical tensions that do not end in wars are, as a rule, short-term growth factors for certain assets. If the conflict can be quickly repaid, then gold will have little chance to return to the psychologically important mark of $ 1300 per ounce against the background of growing risks of raising the federal funds rate and the potential correction of the USD index associated with them. Dragmetal is unlikely to fail deeply and most likely will give preference to medium-term consolidation.

Technically, the failure of the "bears" for XAU / USD to storm the support at $ 1248-1253 per ounce testifies to their weakness. To restore the uptrend "bulls" it is necessary to update the August maximum at $ 1275 and gain a foothold above this mark.

Gold, daily chart

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 10, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD continues to work its way higher towards the expected target at 1.6236. This resistance should only be able to provide temporary resistance, before the next swing higher towards 1.6969.

Short-term support is now seen at 1.6005 and again at 1.5920.

R3: 1.6236

R2: 1.6196

R1: 1.6081

Pivot: 1.6050

S1: 1.6005

S2: 1.5959

S3: 1.5920

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5825. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6005 and use the same stop at 1.5825.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 10, 2017

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Wave summary:

We a perfect correction back to 129.55 (our target was seen at 129.52) renewed downside pressure should now be expected for a decline to 127.59 from where a new short-term correction close to 129.55 should be expected before lower again to 125.08.

R3: 130.03

R2: 129.78

R1: 129.55

Pivot: 129.50

S1: 128.46

S2: 127.96

S3: 127.59

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 129.45. We will move our stop lower to 130.05. Take-profit will be placed at 127.65.

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EUR/USD testing major support, prepare to sell

Price has started to show the first signs of a major bearish reversal by breaking out of our ascending channel and breaking below our major support level. We remain bearish looking to below 1.1750 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a drop to at least 1.1500 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, big figure).

RSI (34) sees intermediate support at 50% and only a break of this level would correspondingly trigger a bearish move on EUR/USD.

Sell below 1.1750. Stop loss is at 1.1854. Take profit is at 1.1500.

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AUD/USD profit target reached perfectly, remain bearish for a further drop

The price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target. We remain bearish looking to sell below 0.7894 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further push down to at least 0.7854 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (55) sees a descending resistance line holding our bearish momentum really nicely.

Sell below 0.7894. Stop loss is at 0.7921. Take profit is at 0.7854.

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NZD/USD bouncing up nicely, remain bullish for a further rise

The price had bounced off our support level perfectly from yesterday. We remain bullish looking to buy on dips above 0.7336 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a further push up to at least 0.7389 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is bouncing nicely off our 8% support and has good upside potential.

Buy above 0.7336. Stop loss is at 0.7305. Take profit is at 0.7389.

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EUR/JPY prepare to sell on major resistance

The price is approaching major resistance at 129.60 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we're expecting a strong reaction off this level for the price to make a push down to at least 128.53 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a reaction from.

Sell below 129.60. Stop loss is at 130.15. Take profit is at 128.53

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AUD/JPY start buying for a strong push up

The price has formed a cup and handle reversal pattern signaling that we'll be seeing a strong bounce from here. We look to buy above 86.79 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a push up to at least 87.36 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is bouncing nicely off our 3.7% level with good upside potential.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on AUD/JPY and USD/JPY.

Buy above 86.79. Stop loss is at 86.49. Take profit is at 87.36.

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USD/JPY bouncing nicely above support, remain bullish for a further rise

The price was testing our buying level yesterday. We remain bullish looking to buy above 109.92 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to at least 111.00 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (55) sees bullish divergence and also an ascending support line holding it up nicely.

Correlation analysis: We are seeing JPY weakness across the board with bounces expected on AUDJPY and USD/JPY.

Buy above 109.92. Stop loss is at 109.52. Take profit is at 111.00.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 10, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards strongly from the price of 0.7421. The pair fell from the level of 0.7421 (this level of 0.7421 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level) to the bottom around 0.7350. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.7285 or higher. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7421 followed by 0.7481, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7337. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7379 and 0.7285; for that, we expect a range of 94 pips (0.7379 - 0.7285). If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7421, the market will decline further to 0.7285. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7285 with a view to testing the weekly support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7421, then this scenario may become invalidated. Moreover, we expect a range between the levels of 0.7421 and 0.7285.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 10, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair keeps moving upwards from the of spot 0.9693 and 0.9600. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9763 or 9800. The market has been trading around the area of 0.9693/0.9600 this week. The pair rose from the levels of 0.9693 and 0.9600 (the level of 0.9693 and 0.9600 coincide with the ratios of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 50%) to a top around 0.9733. The first support level is seen at 0.9639 followed by 0.9600, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.9763. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9600 and 0.9763 in coming hours. On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.9763 which coincides with the double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100). Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.9763, we should see the pair climbing towards the second daily resistance at 0.9800 to test it. However, it would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the last support 0.9600. Overall, the trend is still calling for a strong bullish market as long as the trend is still above the spot of 0.9693, 0.9639 or 0.9600.
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Daily analysis of USDX for August 10, 2017

USDX is consolidated above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and looks forward to the resistance level of 94.00, which is a key psychological zone. If a breakout happens over there, then we might expect further advances in the index towards the 94.47 level. If a pullback happens at the current stage, one could expect a dynamic support in the 200 SMA.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.00 / 94.47

H1 chart's support levels: 93.25 / 92.80

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.00, take profit is at 94.47 and stop loss is at 93.55.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 10, 2017

GBP/USD remains trapped in a consolidation range below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. To the downside, the pair is facing a support around 1.2955, at which a breakout should expose the next key target for sellers around 1.2897. However, we're expecting a corrective move that can make the pair to test the resistance level of 1.3021.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3021 / 1.3080

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2955 / 1.2897

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2955, take profit is at 1.2867 and stop loss is at 1.3011.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 09, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is heading downward.

Therefore, as long as 110.25 holds on the upside, look for a further decline to 109.35 and even to 109.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 110.25 with a target at 110.80.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines showthe support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 110.25, Take Profit: 109.35

Resistance levels: 109.35, 109.00, and 108.50 Support Levels: 110.55, 110.80, 111.15

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