Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for September 4, 2017

After rejecting off the resistance area of 110.20-60 with a daily close last week, USD/JPY is currently showing some bearish pressure towards recent support level of 108.50. Due to the worse-than-expected report on the US labor market released on Friday, Average Earning Index was published with a decreased value at 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%, Non-Farm Employment Change also showed significant decrease to 156k from the previous figure of 189k which was expected to be at 180k, Unemployment Rate report was published with an increase to 4.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 4.3%. However, ISM Manufacturing PMI report was the only high impact economic event which turned out to be positive at 58.8 from the previous figure of 56.3 which was expected to have a slight increase to 56.5. Today USD started with a good amount of gains to recover the GAP it opened with but failed to sustain the gain till now for lack of market pressure due to Labor Day observance holiday. On the other hand, JPY had Monetary Base report published today showed an increase to 16.3% which was expected to be unchanged at 15.6%. To sum up, due to downbeat economic reports from the US, JPY is currently expected to have an upper hand with the gains and it is expected to sustain in the coming days until the US comes up with a high impact positive economic reports to counter it.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The pair started the day with a GAP lower which was retested to the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price is expected to reach 108.50 support level in the coming days as the price remains below the resistance area of 110.20-60. Though the pair has been residing in a corrective and volatile structure recently, the bearish pressure is observed to be quite dominant which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for September 4, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite corrective in nature last week due to mixed economic reports of both the currencies of the pair. Draghi and Yellen have recently been quite confusing with their speeches which left the market sentiment with no chances to have a directional bias in this pair. Recently USD Average Earning Index report was published with a decreased value at 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%, Non-Farm Employment Change also showed significant decrease to 156k from the previous figure of 189k which was expected to be at 180k, Unemployment Rate report was published with an increase to 4.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 4.3% and ISM Manufacturing PMI report was the only high impact economic event which turn out to be positive at 58.8 from the previous figure of 56.3 which was expected to have a slight increase to 56.5. Despite the series of worse economic reports, the pair has managed to gain some momentum on the bearish side upon the daily close which put the pair in more corrective and volatile structure. Today due to the observance of Labor Day USD is observing bank holiday for which the gain on the currency and market pressure is quite low in comparison yet EUR failed to gain momentum. Today EUR Spanish Unemployment Change report was published with worse figure at 46.4k from the previous figure of -26.9k which was expected to be at 16.3k, SENTIX Investor Confidence report was somehow published with a positive result at 28.2 from the previous figure of 27.7 which was expected to have slight decrease to 27.4 and PPI report was published with worse figure at 0.0% from the previous value of -0.2% which was expected to be positive at 0.1%. Due to a good amount of worse report on the both currencies of this pair, the market sentiment is quite confusing and corrective. As ECB has been quite positive with the upcoming economic decisions, gain on EUR against USD is expected in the coming days but as ECB is quite concerned about controlling the EUR gain, so there might a slow and steady gain on EUR in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has been quite non-volatile in nature with the bullish gains which converted to volatile and corrective in nature recently. The price has bounced off the 20 EMA and 1.1820-50 support level for a respectable number of times throughout the process for which further bullish pressure is expected in this pair as the price remains above these levels. As the price remains above the 20 EMA and 1.1820-50 support area with a daily close, it is expected that the price will head towards 1.2140 resistance level in the coming days and bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Analysis of Gold for September 04, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,339.90. According to the 1H time frame, I found potential double top formation and evening star (bearish) formation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Watch for a potential breakout of $1,331.90 to confirm the further lower price. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,325.00 and $1,317.00. The relative strength index showing a hidden bearish divergence, which is another sign of weakness.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,342.50

R2: $1,343.85

R3: $1,345.60

Support levels:

S1: $1,339.45

S2: $1,337.65

S3: $1,336.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for September 04, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1910. According to the 30M time frame, I found a strong resistance cluster at the price of 1.1925 and buying EUR/USD at this stage looks risky. There is a rejection from the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% in the background and overbought Stohastic, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1850 and 1.1825.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1885

R2: 1.1890

R3: 1.1900

Support levels:

S1: 1.1875

S2: 1.1870

S3: 1.1865

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 04, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) is trading lower at the level of $4,308 driven on the news that Western exchanges reached a weighted average high of $4,980 per BTC. Shortly after bitcoin had hit a historical high, the price started to dive hard, taking its biggest loss in less than two months, losing over $300 in value. The technical analysis confirms that buyers got exhausted and that we may see a futher lower price.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found a broken rising wedge and the breakout ocoured with the gap, which is a sign that sellers sold agressively. A moving average oscilator showed a hidden bearish divergence, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $4,166.00 and $3,598.00.

Support/Resistance

$4,622.00 – Gap resistance

$4,493.00 – Intraday resistance

$4,166.00 – Technical support

$4,925.00 – Major technical resistance

$3,958.00 – Major short - term support

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 04, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair had rallied through 1.1970/75 levels on Friday as expected and reversed sharply lower from there. An hourly chart has been depicted here, with proper labeling and probable wave counts. As seen here, the drop from 1.2070 through 1.1820 levels unfolded into 5 waves labelled 1 through 5 as wave (1). Furthermore, its counter trend rally unfolded into 3 waves A-B-C, which extended through 1.1975 levels (also near fibonacci 0.618 resistance) before reversing lower. Most probably waves (1) and (2) have terminated and wave (3) could be underway towards 1.1600 levels going forward. Besides please note that waves 1 and 2 of a lower degree are also produced which would unfold into 5 waves within wave (3). As an alternate, wave (2) can terminate above 1.1975 levels before turning lower. Interim resistance is seen at 1.1980 levels, while support is at 1.1820 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please remain short and also look to sell through 1.1980 again, stop above 1.1270, target 1.1600 and lower.

GBPUSD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

A 4H chart view has been presented here for GBP/USD with clear wave counts labeled again. Please note that the pair had unfolded into 5 waves from 1.3267 through 1.2770 levels, labelled as 1 through 5, which forms wave (1). The pair is seen to be lagging behind its counterparts since the counter trend rally looks to be incomplete, as labelled here A-B-C?. Please note that wave C still looks to be incomplete and should be looking to push towards 1.3050/70 levels at least. Also wave A becomes equal to wave C at 1.3050 levels, hence high probability of wave (2) is terminating there. Please look to again go short at those levels for a drop towards 1.2500 and lower levels. Strong resistance is seen at 1.3267 levels, while immediate support is at 1.2850 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please remain short and look to add further around 1.3050 levels again, stop at 1.3270, target 1.2400 and lower.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events lined up for the rest of the day.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 04, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair bullish trend from the support level of 1.1895. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel.
  • This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
  • As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.1895.
  • Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.1895. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.1895/1.1846. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.1846) with the first target at the level of 1.1959.
  • We should see the pair climbing towards the first target (1.1959) to test it.
  • Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.1959, then the trend will continue towards the next targets of 1.1988 and 1.2031. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.1810.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 04, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair has fallen from the level of 1.3008, which coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, to the bottom around 1.2848. But it rebounded from the spot of 1.2850 to set at the level of 1.2950 currently. The GBP/USD pair will probably keep moving downwards from the levels of 1.2928/1.3008. The first resistance level is seen at 1.2928 followed by 1.3008, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6817.
  • The level of 1.2848 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as minor resistance. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. The GBP/USD pair is declining from the new resistance line of 1.2928 towards the first pivot level at 1.2848 in order to test it. Hence, we recommend selling below 1.2848 with the first target at 1.2748. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.2748. Then, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2748 in order to continue towards the next objectives of 1.2668 and 1.2588.
  • On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.3008, then you'd better set your stop loss at 1.3028.
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 4, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested on August 16.

On the other hand, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 4, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.The nearest Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 should be watched for a valid BUY entry if the current bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700.

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The ECB's difficult task

Eurozone

The focus of the euro area this week adheres with the ECB meeting on Thursday, September 7. The recent macroeconomic data shows that the ECB became evenly more difficult to stay clear from reviewing incentive policies.

European inflation increased more than expected, as the preliminary data for August indicates 1.5% growth against 1.3% in July, while core inflation remained at the same level at 1.3% compared with the forecasted decline of 1.2%.

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The business activity in the manufacturing sector remains at record highs, according to Markit, the German manufacturing PMI came in at 59.3p and 57.4p for the euro zone as a whole. Similar conclusions were received by the European Commission showing an optimistic business index in the industry, with an increase of 5.1p against 4.5p a month earlier. In the services sector, the growth was 14.9p against 14.2p, and the overall economic sentiment index reached 111.9p, which is a 10-year high.

The increase in activity against the backdrop of the development in the US political crisis contributes to the growth in prices of the euro.

The ECB meeting on Thursday will have greater attention, but the regulator is likely to evade.

Today, the Sentix trust indicator will be released, which remains to be at 10-year highs. A small downward pullback is forecasted and may cool the bulls by the euro, considerably. On Tuesday, participants should pay attention to the PMI Markit index in the services sector. In addition to the Thursday's meeting of ECB, is the expected revised data on GDP in the second quarter.

The euro remains to be the favorite pair with the dollar, though the probability of a corrective decline to 1.1780 remains high.

United Kingdom

The PMI Markit activity index rose by 56.9p in August against 55.3p a month earlier, which indicates an increase in production activity and a gradual exit from the decline of the first two-quarters of the year.

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Positive growth will add points to the hawks from the Bank of England, as it increases the chances of economic recovery in the 3rd quarter. At the moment, the alignment of forces in the oldest CBA is in favor of doves, since most of the committee members were forced to assess the possible consequences of Brexit on a negative scale. The latest news from the negotiation process again does not bring any optimism, while the third round ended in vain which means no progress being made.

The next round will begin in October after the meeting of the BoE, which will show that the negative background for Brexit will dominate.

This week, the focus will be on the PMI index in the services sector which will be released on Tuesday. While the signals are mixed, particularly in the consumption index which remained about the level of the previous months in August. But the Lloyds Bank's Business Barometer indicator fell sharply, which is a bearish signal and may help to scale down the PMI index.

The pound attempts to stay in the ascending channel, pushing off its border at 1.2770. Technically, the grounds for growth in the 1.3130 / 40 area are not bad, however, additional grounds of fundamentals will be needed to complete the scenario.

Oil and ruble

Oil finally reacted to a number of bullish signals that was ignored throughout the past week. Gasoline in the United States went up to a two-year high against the backdrop of the shutdown of several refineries, preparing a decline to a 7-year low. This eventually forced the US authorities to print strategic reserves and put 500,000 barrels in the Louisiana plant to compensate for the decline in the processing capacity.

At the same time, OPEC countries, with the preliminary calculations by Pero-Logistics shows that deliveries were reduced by 400 bbl. in a day. The production in Russia for August was cut to 1 million and 489 thousand barrels per day, which is almost 3% below the base contractual level of October 2016.

The growth of oil had a beneficial effect on the prices of the Russian ruble, which is currently falling to 57.35 rubles per dollar. Attention is also drawn to the atypical reaction of the Russian currency to the next wave of diplomatic scandal, as well as to the historical inflation minimum at 3.2% recorded last week.

The ruble has the tendency to decline to 56.1 RUB/USD in the short term.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 4, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. Although price made some bullish effort last week, rising upwards to test the resistance line at 1.2050 (before about 200-pip correction), we could see further bearish movement this week. Some bullish effort is also possible, but it would be contained at the resistance line at 1.2050.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument has been consolidating for about 5 weeks – hence a neutral outlook on the market. There is going to be a rise in momentum this week, which would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern (when price gains about 150 pips), or it would result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern (when price loses about 150 pips).

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is bearish, although price merely consolidated throughout last week. A closer look at the market reveals a possibility of a bullish movement that may enable price to test the distribution territories at 1.3000 and 1.3050. Alternatively, the price could go further downwards from here, leading to more emphasis on the recent bearish outlook.

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USD/JPY: This market is neutral (in spite of what happened last week), having consolidated for about a few weeks. A directional movement would happen this week after the price goes below the demand level at 108.50 or it goes above the supply level at 111.00. That is the expectation for this week.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY is bullish. The price went upwards last week, to test the supply zone at 131.50 before it got corrected by 70 pips, to close below the supply zone at 131.00 on Friday. The movement of the market this week would be determined by whatever happens to Yen. Continuous weakness in Yen would enable price to reach the supply zones at 131.00, 131.50 and 132.00. Should Yen show a measure of stamina, the EUR/JPY would go downwards by around 200 pips.

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Bitcoin analysis for 04/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 04/09/2017:

According to Aaron Lasher, the digital currency wallet Breadwallet co-founder and chief marketing officer (CMO), the market capitalization of Bitcoin might surge above $5 trillion in the next 10 years as of early September 2017. In an interview with MarketWatch, he said: "As a longtime Bitcoin holder, I'm greatly enjoying the recent price action, even though I understand that this bull market will likely be followed by a pretty brutal bear market. Are cryptos in a bubble? Yes, absolutely. Is that a bad thing? Not necessarily".

Current market capitalization of Bitcoin is projected to be around $78 billion. If Lasher anticipation is correct, then within ten years a single Bitcoin would be worth around $250,000. With the recent all-time highs at the level of $4,973 (in most of the exchanges), the market capitalization of Bitcoin is already bigger than world wide famous company Starbucks, but there is still a long hard road for the Bitcoin to unleash its full potential.

Let's take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H1 and H4 time frame. As anticipated before, the top for the wave 5 pink had been established just under the level of $5,000 at $4,974 and since then the price is falling towards the next important support at the level of $4,154. Nevertheless, still, the most important technical support for the price is seen at the level of $3.585. Currently, the price has retraced 50% Fibo of the previous move up, but it still trades below the weekly pivot at the level of $4,544. The growing bullish divergence supports the bullish outlook for the market, so another test of the level of $4,615 or $4.691 might occur soon. The most important intraday support level for bulls is 61%Fibo at the level of $4,118.

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Global macro overview for 04/09/2017

Global macro overview for 04/09/2017:

After very good PMI Manufacturing data from the UK, today's Construction PMI disappointed market participants. The Markit UK PMI Manufacturing Index strengthened to 56.9 for August from an upwardly-revised 55.3 the previous month. This was above the median forecasts of 55.0. Besides, the score has been the strongest reading for four months and the second-highest reading in 3 years. But today the UK PMI Construction Index turned out to be the weakest upturn in the UK construction output for 12 months in August. The consensus was set at the level of 52.1 after 51.9 points a month ago, but the figure came in at the level of 51.1 points.

The UK manufacturing sector was strongly expanded towards new orders growth while production increased at the fastest pace for 7 months. The expansion was driven primarily by domestic factors, although there was still a robust reading for export growth with expansion boosted by a competitive currency and firm global trade growth. On the other hand, the UK construction continued to experience a slowdown this summer. Reduced levels of commercial work were a key source of weakness, which was offset by robust growth in a residential building. The new business volumes fell for the second month and the survey respondents linked subdued demand to reduced business investment and heightened economic uncertainty.

This mixed set of data will not quite help the Bank of England to change the current dovish point of view to more hawkish in order to hike the interest rates in the near future. Moreover, the ongoing Brexit negotiations and growing global uncertainty do not favour the British Pound as well.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. After the data was published, the initial reaction was to the downside despite the previous attempts to break out through the technical support zone between the levels of 1.2961 - 1.2979. The clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator indicates a possible downward move continuation towards the important support between the levels of 1.2861 - 1.2772.

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Global macro overview for 04/09/2017

Global macro overview for 04/09/2017:

The August Non-Farm Payrolls data surprised global investors. The headline NFP number was released at the level of 156k, way below the consensus forecast of 180k. The July data was revised to show an increase of 189k from the 209k reported originally although the 3-month average increased slightly to 185k from 181k. Moreover, unemployment increased to 4.4% for the month from 4.3% in July and the Average Earnings Index increased 0.1% on the month compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.2% gain with year-on-year growth unchanged at 2.5%.

The US August labour data often disappoints the initial reading, to be heavily revised upward in subsequent revisions, so investors have not dramatized the sale of the US Dollar. In addition, there is no shortage of votes saying, that slowing down employment means companies are having trouble finding employees. The later published ISM for industry (58.8 points, highest since 2011) pointed to high production and procurement rates, so the need for hands-on work continues to occur. There is still no pressure on earnings, but the most important data for Fed will be released next week in form of CPI inflation data.

The market valuation of the probability of a rate hike in December remained at over 40%. Still, the overall picture of the US economy is good with an indication of possible improvement by the end of the year, or at least better than the current USD estimate.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame after the job data were published. The golden trend line remains the biggest challenge for the US Dollar bulls so far as any attempt to break out above it failed so far. It is quite possible that a lower high was made at the level of 93.35, so the down trend might be continued from the current levels. The next technical support is seen at the level of 91.93.

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Trading plan 04.09 - 09.08.2017

Trading plan 04.09 - 09/08/2017

Overall picture: ECB, North Korea and Trump.

The beginning of the week made investors nervous. The unexpected test of a high-power hydrogen bomb (over 100 kilotons) by North Korea literally put the world on the verge of a big new war and probably, it will also include the use of nuclear weapons. This is quite serious even without the prices. US President Trump announced his readiness to strike North Korea earlier. More recently, there was the scandalous launch of a ballistic missile in the direction of Japan which was followed by another missile which flew over one of its islands.

So far, it seems that it has been decided that it will not cause explosions. The US and Japan are preparing to take the most stringent sanctions against North Korea and, quite probably, against any country that helps North Korea. Meanwhile, there is the speech about China given by the US. The US requires China to cut off supplies of fuel to North Korea of fuel. There is no Korea.

China did not agree yet. The question of sanctions on trade with China is a matter of enormous cost to the US which is extremely painful.

However, while we do not expect a blow, the markets have calmed down.

On Monday in the US, the holiday of "Labor Day", we predict that trade will be on low volumes.

The most important event of the week is the ECB meeting on Thursday. Markets are waiting for comments on the completion of the QE program which will be a huge change for the ECB.

While comments have been posted that the ECB will postpone the decision to change the policy for two meetings until December, everyone is still waiting on what Draghi will say on the plans of the ECB. So, on Thursday 14.45 Moscow time and 15.30 Moscow time, the speech of the head of the ECB will happen.

Also, important events on Wednesday are the ISM index of the US service and the evening Beige Book report from the Fed. We are waiting for volatility.

According to the current situation, there is news on the labor market in the US. On Friday, data came unexpectedly weak with 150+ thousand below forecasts. It should be noted that the EURUSD rate first went up quickly, but was rigidly sold and could not jump to the top, below 1.1900

Thus, the trend is upward for the EURUSD pair and will be under strong pressure. It is possible to exit both upward and downward, almost 50 to 50.

EURUSD:

We are waiting for movement.

Level up at the breakdown of 1.1980

Level down on the breakdown, according to H4, of 1.1845 and by the day of 1.1820.

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Trading plan for 04/09/2017

Trading plan for 04/09/2017:

In response to North Korea's weekend nuclear test the global financial markets are in risk aversion mode. All major stock indices in the Eurozone and in the US had opened with a gap down. Asian indices are losing as well, Nikkei 225 is 0.93% under the line. Gold jumped to $1,337 and managed to retreat only to $1.332.

On Monday 4th of the September, the event calendar is light in important news releases, so the financial markets will pay attention to the global geopolitical situation development and the US reaction to the latest hydrogen bomb test by Nort Korea. During the London session, Spain will publish Unemployment Change data, UK will release Construction PMI data and Eurozone will post Sentix Investor Confidence and Producer Price Index data.

EUR/USD analysis for 04/09/2017:

The Sentix Investor Confidence and Producer Price Index data from the Eurozone are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and 09:00 am GMT respectively. Market participants expect the investor confidence to remain relatively stable with a slight decrease from 27.7 to 27.4 points in the reported month. There is no surprise the confidence in the Eurozone remains on the elevated levels, as the main power house, Germany, is continuing to perform very well in the economic terms. The only concern is now a lack of inflationary pressure as the PPI data today indicate another slide from 2.5% to 2.1% in annual terms. This issue will be surely discussed at the next European Central Bank meeting in September. However, the ECB President Mario Draghi remains optimistic regarding the further pick up in inflation.

Despite some data release, the whole day will be under the influence of the recent nuclear test made by North Korea, so the financial markets might get quite choppy during the trading hours. If the situation deteriorates any further, the most likely reaction in the financial markets across the globe will be another flight-to-safely move.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The market is trading in oversold conditions, just above the local dashed trend line. The wide support zone between the levels of 1.1817 and 1.1865 is the most important intraday zone and bears will not be in control over this market if this zone is not clearly violated. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1978 (post-NFP high).

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Market Snapshot: Gold at highest level in 10 months

After the recent geopolitical developments, the price of Gold surged to the level of $1,338, the highest level in 10 months. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $1,326. Due to the visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, it is worth to keep an eye on this level. Larger time frames trend remains bullish.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY in the middle or the range

The initial reaction after the North Korea nuclear test was a Yen appreciation, but now the price is slowly going back to the opening zone. The weekend gap hasn't been filled yet, but it all depends on further geopolitical developments today. The biggest and most important resistnace is still the area betweent he levels of 110.61 - 111.01.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 4, 2017

The Dollar index had a volatile Friday after the NFP announcement. Initial heavy selling pressures were faded and price bounced back to pre- NFP levels, however trend remains bearish as the index continues to trade below Ichimoku cloud resistance.

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Price is below the Kumo but above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Trend is unclear in the very short-term time frame. Support is at 92.50. Breaking below it will open the way for a push to new lows towards 90.50-90. Resistance is at 92.80-93.10.

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Red lines - bearish channel

On a daily basis trend remains bearish. Price is still below the daily kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Price is trying to hold above the daily tenkan-sen (red line indicator). A break above 93-93.10 will open the way for a bounce towards 94-94.30. A move towards the 90 level is what I expect next. But we may see 94 first. Key support is at 92.10.

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Daily analysis of Gold for September 01, 2017

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Daily analysis of Gold for September 01, 2017

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 4, 2017

Gold price remains in a bullish trend. Price is approaching medium-term resistance at $1,350 where we could see a larger pullback towards $1,300 or lower. There are still no bearish divergence signs of importance. Longer-term view remains bullish.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Gold price is trading above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at $1,327-20. Resistance is at $1,350.

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Magenta line- resistance

Blue line - support trend line

Gold price is heading towards the magenta trend line resistance. This $1,350 target is our next target after our minimum expectation of $1,320 was achieved. A pullback towards $1,260-$1,290 is possible over the coming weeks but there is no reversal sign yet. I remain longer-term bullish.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 04, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair posted a gap down open and broke below its lower boundary of Bollinger Bands, which indicated an acceleration of the bearish trend. The 20-period moving average is turning down. The relative strength index is heading downward.

Hence, as long as 110.25 is not surpassed, look for a further decline to 109.50 and even to 109.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 110.25 with a target at 109.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 110.25, Take Profit: 109.50

Resistance levels: 110.65, 111.00, and 111.50

Support Levels: 109.50, 109.00, 108.45

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 4, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a corrective decline towards 1.6348 and likely closer to 1.6171 before the next strong rally higher towards 1.6969 and above. Short-term a break below minor support at 1.6521 and more importantly a break below support at 1.6433 will add confidence in our call for a deeper correction before higher again.

R3: 1.6710

R2: 1.6632

R1: 1.6617

Pivot: 1.6520

S1: 1.6433

S2: 1.6348

S3: 1.6171

Trading recommendation:

We are look for a new EUR-buying opportunity in the 1.6171 - 1.6348 area.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 04, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish outlook as the pair is expected to continue the rebound. Although the pair broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a support base at 0.9580 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 156,000 nonfarm payrolls last month, compared with an addition of 180,000 jobs expected and 209,000 in July. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.1% after advancing 0.3% in July, keeping the year-on-year gain in wages at 2.5% for a fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.8 in August from 56.3 in July.

Therefore, above 0.9580, look for a further rebound to 0.9640 and even to 0.9670 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9580, Take Profit: 0.9640

Resistance levels: 0.9640, 0.9670, and 0.9715

Support levels: 0.9545, 0.9500, and 0.9475

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 4, 2017

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Wave summary:

Ideally minor support at 129.64 should be able to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 134.80 and 137.36 as the ideal target for wave D. Should minor support at 129.64 be broken, that will shift the count slightly, but it will only shift the top of wave i to the right for a wave i top at 131.71 and not where we have placed it now at 130.71.

At no point can a break below 127.52 be allowed under this count.

R3: 134.80

R2: 132.65

R1: 131.71

Pivot: 131.00

S1: 129.92

S2: 129.64

S3: 129.09

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.50 with stop placed at 129.55. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 129.64 or upon a break above 131.45 and use the same stop at 129.55.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 04, 2017

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GBP/JPY is under pressure and expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair remains capped by its falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages and is likely to post a further decline. The nearest key resistance at 142.85 maintains the strong selling pressure on the prices. Besides, the relative strength index is negative below its neutrality area at 50.

Therefore, as long as 142.85 is not surpassed, look for a new pullback to 141.90 and 141.50 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended below 142.85 with the target at 143.35.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 142.85, Take Profit: 141.90.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 143.35, 143.75, and 144.35

Support levels: 141.90, 141.50, and 141.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 04, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Despite the recent pullback, a support base at 0.7150 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50.

Hence, as long as 0.7150 holds on the downside, the continuation of rebound to 0.7190 and even to 0.7210 is expected.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7190, 0.7210, and 0.7250

Support levels: 0.7130, 0.7110, and 0.7075

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 04, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as PPI m/m, Sentix Investor Confidence, and Spanish Unemployment Change. Today the US will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1939.

Strong Resistance:1.1932.

Original Resistance: 1.1921.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1910.

Target Inner Area: 1.1882.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1854.

Original Support: 1.1843.

Strong Support: 1.1832.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1825.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 04, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Base y/y data, and today the US will not release any Economic Data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.31.

Resistance. 2: 110.10.

Resistance. 1: 109.88.

Support. 1: 109.62.

Support. 2: 109.40.

Support. 3: 109.19.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for September 04, 2017

USDX is hovering around the 200 SMA at H1 chart, but the outlook is still pointing to the downside for the short-term. Fractals have been formed in the recent higher and lower swings and that's why our preferred scenario is a sideways range established between the 93.09 and 92.34 levels at which the index could be moving during the first days of the week.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 92.34 / 91.67

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.34, take profit is at 91.67 and stop loss is at 93.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 04, 2017

GBP/USD is still dominated by the bulls in the short-term amid USD weakness. Technically, the pair is consolidated above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it's expected to continue higher in the near-term, at least towards the resistance zone of 1.3014. Bollinger bands are trying to expand and it's a sign that the pair is entering into overbought territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2958 / 1.3013

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2842 / 1.2761

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2958, take profit is at 1.3013 and stop loss is at 1.2903.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar will remain under pressure

The US dollar finished the week with a decline, failing to find a positive driver from the published macroeconomic data, as political risks in the eyes of investors clearly have a higher price.

According to the US Department of Commerce, personal spending rose in July at the highest rate since February, and incomes - at its highest since April. These data are positive for the dollar and indicate a resumption of consumer activity. At the same time, the price index of spending on personal consumption has not changed, indicating weak inflationary pressures and endangering the Fed's plans to raise the rate again this year.

The growth in the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US slowed to 156, 000 in August from 189, 000 a month earlier. The result was significantly worse than expected, but still reflects a strong job market recovery. After the decline of unemployment to 4.3% and achieving, according to the Ministry of Labor, full employment, the pace of creating new jobs should objectively slow, so the August result can not be considered negative and will not affect the Fed's plans.

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More important is the weak increase in average wages, which was able to show an increase of just 0.1% against 0.3% in July, and this is less than the expected + 0.2%. The annual growth rate of average earnings is 2.5% for 5 consecutive months, and the dynamics as a whole looks rather weak, since it does not allow to give a positive outlook on the growth of inflation.

In general, the growth of the US economy does not cause concern. The GDP growth rate for the 2nd quarter was revised from 2.7% to 3.0%. PMI Markit index in the manufacturing sector increased to 52.8p in August, while the same index from the ISM shows a record growth of 58.8p, which is the highest since November 2014. While there is a slight decrease in the level of consumer confidence from 97.6 to 96.8p, according to the University of Michigan, it reflects the likelihood of escalating political risks, and not fears of citizens for their financial well-being.

Thus, the Fed faces only one macroeconomic hurdle: low inflation. It may prevent the Fed from raising the rate in September and postpone this move until December, but it does not prevent the plan to begin a reduction in the balance sheet.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said last week that the preparation of the tax reform is in full swing, as the reform plan is being distributed to members of the Congress, and its deliberation is planned before the end of this year. On Monday, Congress comes out of vacation, and there may be comments by Congressmen on the prospects for reform, which can cause additional volatility of the dollar.

The Congress will have to solve many other pressing problems. There is the matter of September 29 - the deadline for approval of a new ceiling of the national debt. Without the resolution of this issue, the budget for the new 2018 fiscal year can not be approved. Mnuchin has already rushed to announce that the period of debate of the issue of state debt can be shifted to October due to the growth of unplanned expenses related to Hurricane Harvey.

Thus, political risks and uncertainty on key issues, such as tax reform, the debt ceiling and the budget for the new financial year, do not allow bulls to seize the push in the dollar. On Monday in the US and Canada, due to the banking day off, trading activity will be low. On Tuesday - there is the publication of the report on production orders in July. On Wednesday, there is a need to pay attention to the ISM index in the service sector. Also, the impact of refined estimates of Hurricane Harvey's damage on the economy on the mood of investors will be seen.

The dollar will remain under pressure. The growth of gold last week was primarily due to fears of further weakening of the dollar, since the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, during the Jackson-Hole meeting, did not give a single strong signal, and until the new statements of Committee members, the bulls will have nothing to rely on. Pay attention to the speech on Friday the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, who is considered very influential in terms of developing the monetary policy of the Fed.

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