EUR and GBP: the ECB left the policy unchanged, while data on the UK economy temporarily supported the pound

The European currency has ignored the ECB's decision to leave rates unchanged and even slightly strengthened in pair with the US dollar, but much will envy of what ECB President Mario Draghi will talk about during his speech.

According to the data, today the European Central Bank has left the refinancing rate unchanged at the level of 0.0%. The deposit rate was also kept at the same negative level of -0.40%.

The regulator said that the rates will remain at current levels at least until the end of 2019, while many experts expected a change in the rate in the fall at the beginning of the year. The ECB also noted that it will fully reinvest the profits from quantitative easing for a long period after the first rate hike.

Today in the first half of the day, data were also published, according to which industrial production in France in February of this year showed an increase of 0.4% compared with January. Economists had expected industrial production in France to drop by 0.5% in February. The data for January was revised down slightly to 1.2% versus 1.3% earlier.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Pressure on the euro may return after the speech of the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. The breakthrough of important support levels around 1.1250 and 1.1220 will resume the downward trend in risky assets, which will lead to the renewal of already monthly lows around 1.1180 and 1.1120. In case of going beyond the resistance level of 1.1290, the demand for the euro will lead to the renewal of local highs in the area of 1.1320 and 1.1380.

The British pound rose in the first half of the day amid good data on economic growth, as well as due to a decrease in the probability of a hard Brexit. Most experts agree that the UK will almost certainly get another postponement following the meeting, which will be held this Friday. On the other hand, what kind of postponement is still unknown. If London receives an annual delay with the right to leave the EU ahead of schedule, it will weaken the position of British Prime Minister Theresa May, which will threaten her political career. This will be a negative signal for the British pound, as the uncertainty associated with the prospects for economic growth will only increase.

On the other hand, if the EU votes for the postponement until June 30, as the Prime Minister requested, the chances of developing the agreement necessary for parliament will remain quite high, which will be a positive signal for pound buyers.

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As for today's report, despite the slow growth, good rates of activity in the service sector remain and a recovery in demand for goods produced in the UK is noted. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, between December and February 2019, UK GDP grew by 0.3%, showing a similar increase in the period from November to January.

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Simplified wave analysis of the main currency pairs on April 10

EUR/USD

The market of the major euro pair is dominated by a downtrend. All counter movements are corrosive. The last short-term wave structure was launched on March 3. In the larger model, it began to form the final part (C). From March 20, the middle part of the wave develops, which is still unfinished.

Forecast:

Over the next trading sessions, a moderate price increase is expected to the limits of the calculated resistance. A break in the upper boundary of the zone is unlikely. Next, we should wait for the formation of a turn and the beginning of a decline.

Recommendations:

Purchases within the day have little potential and can only be used for scalping. It is more promising to wait for the signals of the exchange rate change and look for the signals to sell the instrument. The preliminary downward potential is limited by the support zone.

Resistance zone:

- 1.1300 / 1.1330

Support zone:

- 1.1210 / 1.1180

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GBP/USD

The large-scale charts of the British pound have a stable bearish trend. Since the end of last year, a correctional wave has been developing upwards, the potential of which has almost been exhausted. An unfinished wave of the scale H1 is starting from March 13. The wave is bearish, the middle part is being formed in it (B). The preliminary target lift zone is in the area of the resistance zone.

Forecast:

At the next sessions, a flat mood with an upward vector is expected. Since all traffic goes up against the course of the main trend, the magnitude of stroke is likely minimal. The beginning of the downward movement is expected at the end of the day.

Recommendations:

Buying a pair in the next few hours has little potential, while it is more reasonable to reduce the lot. Lots for sale will have a great prospect. It is better to look for reversal signals in the area of the calculated resistance.

Resistance zone:

- 1.3120 / 1.3150

Support zone:

- 1.3000 / 1.2970

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USD/JPY

Since the beginning of this year, the Japanese price movement course is ascending. Considering that in a larger wave model this section completes the design, the nature of the price movement is close to impulse. The last short-term wave started on March 25th. In recent days, the correctional part (B) of the wrong kind has been completed there. The settlement zone is located in the support area.

Forecast:

The downward movement can be completed in the next sessions. The price may briefly push the lower support line, but the probability of this is small. The beginning of price growth is likely at the end of the day or tomorrow.

Recommendations:

Selling the pair is quite risky. It is recommended to monitor the instrument purchase signals in the support area.

Resistance zone:

- 111.75 / 112.05

Support zone:

- 110.95 / 110.65

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AUD/USD

The main direction of the short-term movement of the bullish wave of the Aussie goes against the main trend and has little potential. The current short-term wave construction is ascending on March 8th. Its structure completed the first 2 parts (A+B). The final part (C) started on April 2.

Forecast:

At the beginning of the bullish price movement, the nearest target zone is in the area of the lowest possible extension of the wave upwards. In the case of a breakthrough of the upper boundary of the zone, the price may rise to the region where the 74th price figure has begun.

Recommendations:

In the coming days, the emphasis in the trade should be made on the purchases of the pair. When generating opposite signals in the area of resistance, the direction vector of transactions should be changed to descending.

Resistance zone:

- 0.7220 / 0.7250

Support zone:

- 0.7100 / 0.7070

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Explanations for the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background - the formed structure, the dotted ones - the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the instrument movements in time.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 10, 2019

BTC has been trading continues to trade sideways at the price of $5.260 and with very slow momentum. BTC is in indecision zone and we would need further confirmation before the next direction.

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Our analysis from yesterday is still active. According to the H1 time-frame, we found that ADX reading is below 30 and, which is sign that short-term trend is weak and sideways price action is present. We found potential for ascending triangle in creation but the price would need to break the resistance at $5.326 and then successfully test it before we start to buy again. If the resistance at the price of $5.326 holds, sell off will be possible. The breakout of the support at $5.000 may confirm downward scenario and potential test of $4.636.

Trading recommendation: We are neutral but we are closely observing potential breakout of the support or resistance to confirm further direction.

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EUR./USD analysis for April 10, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1257. The 2-day trend got broken and the trend shifted from bullish to bearish. We see EUR/USD lower in the next few days.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that potential bearish flag is completed (ABC zig-zag bullish correction) and 20day downward trend may resume. The key resistance level is seen at the price of 1.1285. Support levels are seen at the price of 1.1205 and 1. 1185.

Trading recommendation: We sold EUR from 1.1235 with target at 1.1185. Protective stop is placed above the 1.1285.

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Analysis of Gold for April 10, 2019

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.302.15. We are still expecting upward price and bullish continuation.

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Nothing has specially changed since our previous analysis. The ADX reading is above 30 level, which is sign of the strong bullish trend-momentum. In the background, we found the bullish flag pattern in creation, which even adds more upside potential. Support levels are seen at the price of $1.293.00 and $1.284.00. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $1.310.00, $1.316.10 and $1.322.10.

Trading recommendation: We are still holding our long position the Gold from $1.300.00 and with targets at $1.310.55 and $1.316.00. Protective stop is placed at $1.292.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 10, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9895 and 0.9948. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.9948 coinciding with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.9948. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 0.9948. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.9948) with the first target at the level of 0.9983. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.9983, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0036) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9895.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on April 10. The pound rose on GDP data but the potential is limited by the situation

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers managed to return the pair to the resistance level of 1.3079. while the trade is conducted above this range, you can count on the continuation of the upward correction with a test of highs around 1.1319 and 1.1360, where I recommend fixing the profit. In case that the pair return under the support of 1.3079 or the appearance of bad news on Brexit, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown around the lower boundary of the side channel 1.3032 or on a rebound from the monthly minimum of 1.2988.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Given the uncertainty with Brexit and the likelihood of exit without an agreement, although small it is still existing, bears can return to the market after reducing to the support level of 1.3079. This will automatically result in closing long positions of buyers, recruited after good data on GDP. Moreover, it will lead to a decrease in GBP/USD to the area of the minimum at 1.3032 and 1.2988, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of further growth of the pound, one can consider sales from the upper border of the side channel at 1.3119 or immediately on a rebound from the new resistance of 1.3160.

More in the video forecast for April 10

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Under the scenario of a decline in the pound, support will be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3065 and the lower border in the area 1.3030.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 10, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on April 10. ECB left rates unchanged while traders are waiting for speeches by Mario

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

While trading of the EUR/USD pair is above the support level of 1.1254, traders are preparing for a speech by the President of the European Central Bank, which may shed light on the future direction of the pair. The main goal of the bulls in the afternoon will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1284, which will lead to an update of the maximum near 1.1324 and 1.1358, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of the EUR / USD decline scenario in the second half of the day, it is best to look at long positions on a false breakdown around 1.1254 or buy directly on the rebound from a minimum of 1.1223.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears will manifest themselves only after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of resistance 1.1284, which will lead to renewed pressure on the euro and a decrease in the area of support of 1.1254. However, the main task of the sellers after the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi will be a breakthrough of the level of 1.1254 and a test of the minimum in the area of 1.1223 and 1.1183, where I recommend taking profits. In case that the EUR / USD growth scenario is above 1.1284 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from the maximum and 1.1324.

More in the video forecast for April 10

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1255.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. April 10th. The trading system "Regression Channels". Pound sterling is waiting for the results of the EU summit

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -33.3940

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend, although it regularly makes attempts to overcome the moving average. For the British pound, today is no less important day than for the euro. First, the EU summit will take place today, during which Brexit issues will be discussed and a decision should be made to postpone the exit of the UK from the EU. The fact that the postponement will be granted, there is little doubt, the only question is the timing. Theresa May wants a delay until June 30, the European Union offers a delay of one year, and some of its leaders are against the delay. It is worth noting that if the EU does not approve the postponement of the Brexit, then the output will happen on April 12, that is, the day after tomorrow and under the "hard" scenario. Secondly, the UK GDP for March will be published today, and, according to experts, there will be zero growth of this most important indicator. Such a low value of GDP can cause pressure on the pound sterling. After lunch, we are waiting for a report on inflation in the US, where the forecasts are very positive, which can also support the US dollar. From a technical point of view, the pair cannot break through Murray's level of "5/8" – 1.3000, although it has a pronounced tendency to decline, based on both technical factors and fundamental ones

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3000

S2 - 1.2939

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started another upward correction. Today, we can expect the pair to move in any direction, as there will be a large amount of important news. So far, short positions with the target of 1.3000 are relevant, but after the completion of the correction.

Buy-positions can be considered after fixing the pair above the moving average, but only with "short" targets – 1.3123 and 1.3184.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. April 10th. The trading system "Regression Channels". An important day for the European currency

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 70.0527

On Wednesday, April 10, the EUR/USD currency pair began a round of downward correction but much more important is how the day will end for the euro. Today, the ECB will announce the results of the meeting, and although no one expects any changes in monetary policy, words can be heard at the ECB press conference that will have a serious impact on the currency pair. By and large, all the questions come down to whether the rhetoric of Mario Draghi is frankly a "pigeon". According to his previous speeches, it became clear to the markets that no tightening of monetary policy should be expected in the near future, and the EU economy still needs support. Thus, focusing on the need to stimulate the economy will be a bearish factor for the pair. In addition to the ECB meeting, a report on inflation in the US in March will be published today. The predicted value of the main indicator is + 1.8% y / y. If the forecast comes true, this will again be a bearish factor for the pair. In the evening, we are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting, and although around such events are rarely unexpected, since all the necessary information comes after the meeting, surprises are possible. In general, today we will have a very interesting day with many important fundamental events.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1261

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1200

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1292

R2 - 1.1322

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair began to adjust against the upward trend. Thus, it is recommended to consider long positions with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1322 after turning Heiken Ashi's indicator to the top.

Short positions are recommended to be opened not earlier than the reverse consolidation of the pair below the moving with the targets at 1.1230 and 1.1200. In this case, the downward trend of the pair may resume.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed will look for new policy instruments at low rates. The results of the ECB meeting will return the pressure on the

The euro is gradually strengthening its position ahead of an important meeting of the European Central Bank, at which the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. At today's meeting, the leadership of the European Central Bank will discuss issues relating to the future prospects of credit policy, but it is unlikely that any changes will be made. All emphasis will be shifted to the rhetoric in the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi. If there are concerns about downside risks to inflation, the pressure on the euro will increase. Also, investors will closely monitor the answer to questions related to the differential system of interest rates on deposits, as well as the details of the third stage of TLTRO.

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Most likely, after the meeting, the pressure on the euro will return, and the breakthrough of important support levels in areas of 1.1250 and 1.1220 will resume the downward trend in risky assets, which will lead to the renewal of the monthly minimums in the areas of 1.1180 and 1.1120.

Italy's report on GDP growth forecast in 2019 did not please investors, as well as the fact that the IMF revised its vision of global economic growth.

The report indicates that Italy lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2019 to 0.1% versus 1% earlier. The budget deficit forecast was also raised to 2.5% of the gross domestic product. Let me remind you that last year a struggle began between Rome and Brussels on the issue of an acceptable level of fiscal easing. Both sides agreed on a budget deficit level of 2.04% of GDP.

The International Monetary Fund in its report pointed out that the world economy in early 2019 is weaker than expected.

According to IMF forecasts, the world economy in 2019 will grow only by 3.3% against the forecast of 3.5% in January and 3.7% in October 2018. This is due to a slowdown in almost all advanced countries, including the United States. The IMF also drew attention to the persistence of tension in trade relations, as well as the introduction and increase of duties on the part of the United States and China.

Last night, the US Treasury Secretary and the Fed made a speech. Mnuchin raised the topic of US public debt and noted that US President Donald Trump wants the debt ceiling raised as soon as possible. In his opinion, a default on public debt would be rather disastrous for the American economy.

Fed spokesman Richard Clarida gave an interview yesterday in which he said that the Central Bank is analyzing monetary policy, during which the possibility inflation growth above 2% during economic upswings will be examined to compensate for lower inflation during recessions. During the analysis, the Fed will also try to find new policy instruments for periods when the rates are very low.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 10)

The currency pair Euro / Dollar for the last trading day showed an extremely low volatility of 29 points, as a result with almost one point remaining. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the correctional phase from the level of 1.1180 led us to the value of 1.1284, where the quote slowed down, forming a narrow range of 20 points. The news and news background is immediately under a flurry of two events: the first is, of course, an emergency summit of the countries of the European Union, where Brexit's fate will be decided, and the second - no less important event - the meeting of the Unified Central Bank. The upcoming EU summit today has been worrying investors for a week already. It will decide the fate of Brexit, and in particular, the possible delay that Britain persistently solicits. Earlier, the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, had repeatedly spoken out on this topic, who said that he had invited the leaders of 27 countries in the European Union to discuss at the summit the request of British Prime Minister Theresa May on the postponement. It is difficult to say whether the opportunity for Britain will be given as a result, since the EU has repeatedly responded against such actions, without any guarantees. In theory, a postponement is possible, but for her sake England must demonstrate to Brussels firm steps towards agreeing on a Brexit agreement.

On Wednesday, the Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel has already managed to declare that there will be no new negotiations on Britain's withdrawal from the European Union.

The second key event of the day, as mentioned earlier, was the meeting of the Unified Central Bank, where, even earlier this week, the media caught up with rumors that the regulator was allegedly disappointed in the policy of negative interest rates. Naturally, you should not think that at the current meeting of the ECB will change the rate. Everything will remain at the same level. However, Mario Draghi will speak at a press conference, happening at 15:30 Moscow time. There may appear explanations of earlier rumors wherein traders might be interested in.

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As you already understood, today is too full of events, and even in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on inflation in the United States, where they expect growth from 1.5% to 1.8%. Thus, market volatility is provided to us.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that there is a characteristic stagnation in the market. On the eve of the very stratum of information and news background, investors, naturally, are trying to sit out on the fence, and speculators are considering possible risky entries to ride on the waves noise.

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To enter the market is up to you , of course. However, if your positions are purely speculative, then traders are now analyzing the current stagnation of 1.1250 / 1.1285, including the fixation points when placing trading orders.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short and intraday perspective, a variable upward interest has appeared against the background of correction and stagnation. The medium-term perspective maintains a downward interest in the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 10, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 19 points. Due to the dense information and news background, the volatility of the current day is likely to be high.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for April 10. Has the euro reached its maximum potential?

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair completed growth to the retracement level of 61.8% (1.1281) and rebound from it with a turn in favor of the American currency. As a result, on April 10, the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241) began. None of the indicators have emerging divergences on the current chart. The rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the euro and return to the level of 61.8%. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the probability of a further fall towards the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177).

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair retains chances of resuming the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941), as it continues to be below the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1285). The closing of the pair above the level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a turn in favor of the EU currency and we can expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level 100.0% (1.1553). There are no emerging divergences on the current chart.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.1281 and 1.1313 if the pair rebounds from the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1241.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 if the pair rebounds from the level of 61.8%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1281.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for April 10. The pound after the euro rolled back from local highs

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094) and a reversal in favor of the US dollar. As a result, the pair began the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). Fixing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the British pound and the resumption of growth in the direction of the retracement level 100.0% (1.3300). Today, there is no emerging divergence in any indicator.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremums of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, after the rebound from the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3122), the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a fall to the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.3046). Thus, now it is possible to increase quotations in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.3087). There are also no emerging divergences on the current chart. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 0.0% (1.2976).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremums of March 27, 2019, and March 29, 2019.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with a target at 1.3087 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 23.6% as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.3046 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2976 and a stop loss order above the level of 23.6% if the pair completes below the level of 1.3046 (hourly chart).

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 10, 2019

Bitcoin has managed to go above $5,250 after a correction at the edge. The price has recently retested the resistance and it is about to move higher.

The price was held by the strong support area of Kumo Cloud earlier while it was correcting below $5,250. Besides, the strong levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line are currently expected to work as support whereas the Chikou Span that is breaking above the price line also indicates the possibility of further uptrend. MACD shows no signs of Bearish Divergence which confirms that the bullish sentiment is going to rise further in the coming days. The targets may appear around $5,500 and later move towards $6,000.

Bitcoin is anticipated to attract more bull traders on its way to new highs. However, some unexpected surprises may take place. So, a trader should be able to make sure the risks are managed properly. The bullish sentiment is expected to prevail as long as the price remains above $5,000.

SUPPORT: 5,000, 5,250

RESISTANCE: 5,500, 6,000

SENTIMENT: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR / USD: can the ECB offer something new to the euro bears?

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Today, the focus of investors' attention is the regular meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB). The results of which will enable the regulator to announce the monetary policy decision and report on future plans. Despite the unexpected changes in rate, the press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi promises to be quite interesting. After all, it is known that he knows how to set markets in motion.

Obviously, at the current stage, the ECB has no particular reason for optimism: business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone is declining. Inflation is slowing down. In addition, there are remaining threats associated with Brexit and American protectionism. Following the results of the next meeting of the ECB, first of all, the regulator's assessment of the state of the economy of the currency bloc should be paid much attention. It is assumed that if the phrase about downward risks reappears, the EUR / USD pair will react to this with a fall.

However, M. Draghi may note that the timid signs of recovery in the eurozone economy do exist, and which should determine the rise of the euro.

However, if the ECB suddenly decides to reveal the details of the new TLTRO program right now instead of its expected release in June, then this will put pressure on the single European currency.

If M. Draghi confirms that interest rates will remain at current levels longer than the "forward guide" suggests, this also presents a negative point for the euro.

Thus, if the head of the ECB at a press conference focuses on negative factors, the EUR / USD pair will fall. In this case, the March low at 1.1176 will be the resistance level. With any hint of optimism, the euro could strengthen against the dollar to $ 1.1350.

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Today markets focus on the publication of the Fed protocol

On Tuesday, the US dollar received some support against major currencies and as a traditional safe-haven currency, the yen rose. The catalyst of such dynamics was the revival of fears that the growth of the world economy will continue to slow down.

The International Monetary Fund published its forecast on Tuesday on the dynamics of world GDP, which turned out to be pessimistic and predicts a slowdown in the economic growth rate to 3.3%. Forecasts for Europe and the United States are downward while expectations for growth in the Chinese economy are rising.

On this wave, the stock markets in Europe and the USA fell. Naturally, in this situation, government bonds of economically developed countries, primarily America, began to be in demand. The decline in the benchmark yield of 10-year Treasuries, which began on Tuesday, continued into the Asia-Pacific trading session and the yield was losing 0.36% to 2.490% at the time of this writing.

The fall of the major stock indices took place against the background of profit taking and the appreciation of the dollar, which, however, we believe to be temporary. The reason for this may be the probable hint by the Fed that it may proceed to lower interest rates if the growth of the American economy continues to slow down. This signal can be given in the minutes of the March meeting of the regulator, which will be published today. Investors are waiting for him, as they believe that the decline in the growth of the American economy against the backdrop of external challenges associated with trade wars, as well as Donald Trump's persistent calls for the Fed to begin the process of lowering interest rates, is too significant.

Considering this, it can be assumed that if this probability really appears in the protocol. This will be a new impetus to the growth in demand for risky assets, not only in the US but throughout the world and especially in emerging markets (EM). In this case, the US dollar will be under pressure against major currencies, as well as some currencies of countries with developing economies, including Russia.

At the same time, if such a signal does not follow, the Fed will continue to signal a desire to observe the development of events before taking any measures and this is unlikely to have a strong impact on markets that will continue to stagnate.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is trading above the level of renewed demand for risky assets. If the pair holds above the level of 0.7145, it can continue to grow to 0.7165 with the prospect of an increase to 0.7200.

The USD/CAD pair may continue to fall if the minutes of the March meeting of the Fed published today show the bank's tendency to lower interest rates. In this case, the pair will overcome the mark of 1.3315 and rush to 1.3285. Then, it will possibly move to 1.3250.

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Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (April 10)

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 91 points, with the result of literally trampling in one place. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the investor alertness is directly reflected in the trading chart, where the quotation continues to fluctuate within the 1.3000 range level. On the other hand, the information and news background is filled with ambiguity regarding Brexit, where the focus of attention of all market participants is in the emergency summit in Brussels, which is scheduled for today (April 10). There are already many different assumptions regarding the outcome of this event, but first, I would like to go back to the early statement of Donald Tusk. The head of the European Council proposed to the leaders of the 27 countries remaining in the European Union to discuss at the summit the request of Prime Minister Theresa May for the postponement of Brexit.

"The continuing uncertainty presents a problem for our enterprises and citizens. Finally, if we cannot agree on any next extension, there will be a risk of an unorganized Brexit - without a deal," says Tusk in a letter to EU leaders."

What happens? We have repeatedly heard how high-ranking EU officials criticized the postponement and made it clear that for their part, they did everything possible, but again there is a request for a new postponement. Whether it will be approved is difficult to say. In theory, the EU does not want to see big problems and tries to avoid sad scenarios, but at the same time, it is also ready to defend its interests, which we, in principle, see with the current agreement. Thus, the delay, purely hypothetically, has a right to exist, but perhaps the EU will require certain guarantees from Britain, and perhaps obliging actions, such as, for example, participation in elections to the European Parliament, which, of course, England may not like.

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In terms of the economic calendar, we have a busy trading day today. Published data on industrial production in Britain, where low rates are expected. In the United States, there are data on inflation, where growth is expected, but it all overlaps, as was already discussed earlier, with the EU summit with a key theme - Brexit.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see the quotes booming within the 1.3000 range, bouncing from 50 to 100 points from time to time, but still being held in close proximity to it due to uncertainty. It is likely to assume that the ambiguous bump within the 1.3000 level will continue, where it is better not to fly to the market ahead of time. It should be clearly understood that we have a strong information background, which is closed by a screen of ambiguity regarding the delay in Brexit. The volatility of the day can be extremely high, and investors are trying to take a waiting position. In turn, speculators try to ride on the waves of panic and consider a number of points for flight, although they are extremely risky.

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- Positions for purchase are considered at a price higher than 1.1260 (not a puncture).

- Positions for sale are considered at a price lower than 1.2950.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest against the background of uncertainty in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday perspective is in a correction phase. The medium-term perspective maintains the initial downward interest. Indicators on smaller TFs, on the other hand, can arbitrarily jump at the moment of information noise.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 10 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 37 points. Due to the dense information and news background, the volatility of the current day is likely to be high.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Overview of the foreign exchange market 04/10/2019

The market froze in anticipation of both the results of today's summit of the European Union and the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, as well as data on inflation in the United States. Although the pound left a little from side to side, after the House of Commons passed the law on the postponement of Brexit, which really makes everything happening in the village Amateur, as all the terms have long been out, and now only the European Union can once again postpone the date of eviction of the United Kingdom from the European hostel. The single European currency simply ignored JOLTS data on open vacancies in the United States, the number of which decreased from 7,625 thousand to 7,087 thousand. So, market participants stopped waiting.

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Indeed, today's summit of the European Union is the most significant event, and this day can go down in history for a long time. However, only if Europe refuses to give the UK another delay. Apparently, the probability of such a development is not so great as it seemed just a few days ago. In particular, this is indicated by the words of Donald Tusk that the countries of the European Union need to decide on the terms and conditions of the postponement. The point is that the UK may be obliged to take part in elections to the European Parliament, which will postpone Brexit indefinitely and lead to even greater conflict between Brexit supporters and opponents both among British politicians and Her Majesty's subjects. So the United Kingdom can offer this option of delay, from which it will be forced to refuse. Donald Tusk also added that the United Kingdom can withdraw its application for withdrawal from the European Union at any time. In other words, the situation is completely unpredictable, and everyone is sitting on knives. So it is better to keep calm and not make sudden movements. Frankly speaking, in this situation, the most reasonable is to wait for the results of the summit and act upon it.

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Somewhat less interesting (but no less significant) is today's meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, followed by a press conference of Mario Draghi. Just over the past couple of days, the recent words of the head of the European Central Bank that the Board of the regulator was disappointed in the policy of negative interest rates have been actively exaggerated in various media propaganda and misinformation. Every one understands that today there will be no increase in the refinancing rate, but an equally important issue is on the agenda. After all, following the results of the previous meeting, the European Central Bank actually resumed the program of quantitative easing by expanding long-term lending to banks. However, it is not clear how long and on what scale the office of Mario Draghi intends to refinance these same banks. So everyone is waiting for some specifics, and it is likely that the head of the European Central Bank will announce that the extended lending will last only a few months and by the end of the year the regulator will start preparing for an increase in the refinancing rate, which will be scheduled for early next year.

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However, today's data on inflation in the United States, which can show its growth from 1.5% to 1.8%, is interesting. There was no complete certainty about the policies of the European Central Bank. The growth of inflation in America is quite a tangible factor, from which specific conclusions about the further actions of the Federal Reserve system follow. Moreover, Mario Draghi can say a lot of things without saying anything. Today, his words may turn out to be so ambiguous that investors will only have to operate with inflation in the United States. It is most likely that the single European currency will drop to 1.1225. However, Mario Draghi may surprise everyone, which he does quite rarely, and give specific answers and point to specific dates. We should not exclude the initial reaction of the market to a possible statement that the European Union is giving the UK another delay. No one will immediately look at additional conditions and the like. In this case, the single European currency can rise to 1.1300. It is best to act on the fact, and after waiting a little time until the initial hysteria passes.

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The fate of the pound depends on the decision of the European Union to postpone Brexit. If Europe clearly says that there will be no more delays, the pound will fall to 1.2975. If Europe gives a delay, the pound will start to grow rapidly, and the first stop will be 1.3100. No one will pay attention to all sorts of reservations and additional conditions. They don't usually make headlines. So the realization will come only later.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for April 10. Today the question of deferment of Brexit will be resolved

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Wave counting analysis:

On April 9, the GBP / USD pair lost about 10 bp. and remains within the narrowing triangle. I still expect the pair to go beyond this triangle to determine the direction of movement for the near future. Today, the tool will have enough opportunities to fulfill this option, since the GDP will be released in the UK today. Meanwhile, inflation is published in the United States, and the EU summit will be held, wherein the issue of the Brexit postponement will be decided. Based on the current wave marking, it is more preferable to build a downward wave. However, everything will depend on the news background. A variant with a successful attempt to break through the upper line of the triangle, which will lead to the complication of the entire wave marking, is not excluded.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern involves the construction of a downward trend. However, as long as the pair does not break through one of the lines of the triangle, the trading will take place inside it. Today, the news background should help to get out of the triangle, and the breakthrough of one of its lines will be a strong signal to buy or sell.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 10. The results of the ECB meeting and inflation in the United States will affect the

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, April 9, the trading ended for the pair EUR / USD with an increase of several base points.Thus, the wave pattern for the past day has not changed and still involves the construction of an upward wave c. However, a meeting of the ECB and the announcement of its results will be held now. In addition, a press conference will also be held. And of course, the market will receive a lot of important information on the basis of which trading decisions will be made. To continue the construction of the wave c, it is necessary that the information from the ECB is not openly "dovish". Also, today, we should pay attention to the inflation in the United States. The high value of the consumer price index for March will be in the hands of the dollar, not the euro.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed the construction of wave b and proceeded to the construction of wave c. Now, I recommend buying a pair with targets near the level of 1.1455, which corresponds to the maximum of wave a , based on the construction of wave c. Purchases should not be large in volume, especially today, since a large amount of important news can easily lead to a decrease in the pair.

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Difficult day for Europe

The NFIB index of business optimism in small business continues to remain at high levels not seen since the pre-crisis times of the junior Bush presidency. For a long time, respondents noted the dominance of state regulation and bureaucracy under Obama but Trump's reforms have a noticeable positive effect in reducing taxes and government participation in regulation has a beneficial effect on business sentiment.

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The index of economic optimism from IBD/TIPP in April also maintains its position at a high level with a slight decrease from 55.7p a month earlier to 54.2p, which suggests that the index from the University of Michigan on Friday also will not show a decline.

The inflation data in March will be published today. It is expected that core inflation will remain at the same level of 2.1% and any change may cause an increase in dollar volatility.

Tonight, the minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be published, which has become noticeably more dovish than predicted. Trump will gradually replace the hawks in the Fed with more moderate financiers, forcing the Fed to abandon its plan to normalize interest rates. From this point of view, the Protocol will focus regarding the arguments of the FOMC members on the rates and on the balance reduction policy, since the nuances of the new approach have not yet been made public.

The threat of another trade war, this time between the US and the EU, increases risks, markets yesterday reacted with a fall in stock indices and an increase in demand for defensive assets, which led to a slight decrease in commodity prices and an increase in demand for gold and the Japanese yen. Today, the trend is likely to continue and commodity currencies will be under pressure.

EUR / USD pair

Today, the ECB will hold a regular meeting on monetary policy. No changes in macroeconomic forecasts are planned and all attention will be focused on the press conference of Mario Draghi. Markets want to hear confirmation of the inflation estimate to be just a temporary slowdown, which will keep optimism about the prospects for the euro. However, Draghi can add a few tragic notes on the economic growth rate.

On the eve of the Sentix, stabilization of the situation in the eurozone was noted, despite the index falling for the eighth consecutive month to 3.8p in April. It is acknowledged that expectations are rising for the third consecutive month, which means a slowdown of the negative impulse.

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The euro looks confident by the end of the day a slight increase is possible. The nearest resistance of 1.1284 will most likely be passed before the ECB meeting. The overall focus of the EUR/USD pair will be on the technical resistance of 1.1330.

GBP / USD pair

In the evening, EU leaders will gather at an extraordinary summit to decide on granting the UK another postponement of Brexit. Yesterday, the head of the EU Donald Tusk circulated a letter in which he called for extending Brexit for a year with the right of an early exit if the transaction passes through the House of Commons. At the moment, such a scenario is considered a priority since it will allow the parties to get out of the problem with time. On the eve of the House of Commons finally adopted a bill to postpone exit, the document was promptly approved by the Queen and now what only matters is the decision of the EU leaders.

Pound did not respond to the decision of the parliament, which indicates that the markets consider the extension of Brexit, in fact, the matter has already been resolved. Volatility will increase throughout the day because along with political issues important economic data, particularly reports on industrial production, trade balance and GDP will be published.

The pound remains neutral and psychological levels of support at 1.2960/85 and resistance at 1.3090/95. The direction of the out of range will be determined at the EU summit.

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Fundamental Analysis of USDCAD for April 10, 2019

USD/CAD recently bounced off the 1.3300 event area from where the price is expected to climb higher. Despite some downbeat reports from the US, USD has been able to regain momentum. On the other hand, CAD has given in to USD pressure.

The US released tepid economic data earlier this week such US factory orders and JOLTs job openings which missed analyst expectations. On Friday, the reports on the US labor market revealed mixed data. On the plus side, nonfarm payrolls surged to 196K in March, beating the forecast of 172K in March. The strong increase in the US private sector employment followed from minor employment growth in February. On the minus side, average hourly earnings eased 0.1% last month from 0.3% growth previously.

Yesterday the USD/CAD pair traded sideways. The pair even fell below 1.33 in the North American session amid a spike in crude oil prices. Further, ahead of Canada's IVEY PMI the pair was trapped in a trading range sticking to intra-day lows during the North American session. Meanwhile, tarders are voicing concerns about the long-awaited trade deal between the US and China.

Yesterday US President Donald Trump made comments on a further agenda for trade talks. Trump announced that the summit with his Chinese counterpart will take place next with the view to making an economic agreement between two countries. In overnight trade, the US dollar found support from rising yields of US Treasuries. The pair continued trading sideways in the Asian session today. Being the commodity currency, CAD is propped up by a steady rally of oil prices. Yesterday crude oil hit new 2019 highs.

This week, the ecoonmic calendar is loaded with reports from the US. Apart from crucial economic data like CPI and CPI, the US will present a report on unemployment claims, a consumer sentiment index from the Univercity of Michigan, and a federal budget balance. Besides, market participants await speeches of FOMC Members Randal Quarles and Neel Kashkari. A raft of reports and events in the US will determine a further direction on USD/CAD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA. Near-term resistance is expected to push the price a bit lower. The pair is going to make a consolidation along the way. Alternatively, if the price remains above 1.3300, it will reinforce upward pressure with a target towards 1.3400-50 resistance area in the coming days.

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GBP/USD. The pound ignores rumors and waits for the outcome of the EU summit

The pound is tired of responding to current events: despite the abundance of news drivers, the pair GBP/USD closed at the opening level yesterday, thus demonstrating indifference to what is happening. This behavior of the price suggests that traders are waiting for the main event of this week – an extraordinary EU summit, which will begin its work today. Only after the meeting of the leaders of the European Union, the pound will draw its conclusions and determine the direction of further movement – while all previous rumors are simply ignored by the market.

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It is noteworthy that this "stress resistance" appeared in the British currency relatively recently. At the end of last year, the pound showed strong volatility a few days before the key stages of Brexit, reacting to newspaper headlines, comments from politicians and unconfirmed rumors. Now, the situation has changed: despite the contradictory fundamental background, the pair GBP/USD is held within the 30th figure, waiting for the results of today.

Yesterday, the House of Commons supported the government draft law on the extension of Brexit until June 30. Perhaps, for the first time in a long time, the British Parliament demonstrated such solidarity with the Prime Minister – 420 deputies voted "for", while 110 voted against. But this result did not please traders: firstly, it was quite predictable, and secondly, Brussels is unlikely to show such solidarity with May. Let me remind you that the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, is lobbying for the idea of providing a so-called "flexible" delay, in which Brussels gives London a year to approve a deal with an additional opportunity to announce its withdrawal earlier than the deadline. Britain will be forced to participate in the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held on May 23, but after completing the "divorce process", the European deputies will have to resign from the UK.

This is the basic scenario from which Europeans will make a start at today's summit. Angela Merkel and many other EU leaders supported the "flexible" reprieve. France took a stand-alone position (however, as at the previous summit): Emmanuel Macron demands to limit the "flexible" term to December of this year. In addition, the French want to "test" the British at the end of each quarter in order to see whether they have advanced in the matter of coordinating the transaction or not. If the result is negative, it is proposed to shorten the extension period, thereby "penalizing" London. It is difficult to say whether Macron's colleagues will support the position of Paris – but the fact of this idea suggests that the French will not silently agree with the proposal of Brussels to provide Britain with a year's delay. This fact alarms traders, despite the general confidence that the Brexit date will be rescheduled.

It is worth recalling again that May plans to postpone the "X hour" just before June 30, and not for a year – and this "inconsistency of intentions" also worries the market. After all, Brussels is unlikely to change its position: first, the Europeans simply do not believe that the British deputies will be able to approve the deal over the next three months. Secondly, Theresa May could not even find a preliminary compromise with Labour Party, although negotiations have been going on for the second week already.

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In my opinion, the British Prime Minister could get a "short delay" if the conservatives and Laborites came to at least a framework agreement. And judging by the dynamics of the negotiations, the dialogue will drag on again for many months – and Brussels understands this perfectly well. Just yesterday, Labour representative McDonnell said that the government does not change its position regarding the prospects of the Customs Union and the single market (these are basic questions for the Labour Party). In other words, Theresa May, on the one hand, declares her intention to come to an agreement, but on the other hand, she takes a too tough position on key issues.

Thus, the results of the extraordinary summit of the EU is not a foregone conclusion. With a high degree of probability, we can say that London will still receive a delay, but the negotiations on this issue will be quite difficult. This suggests that the pound will respond with impressive growth to the positive results of the meeting, given the previous intrigue. If today's events do not unfold according to the expected scenario, the GBP/USD pair will decrease at least to the first support level of 1.2975 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and below – to 1.2890 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe). The resistance level stands at 1.3135 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), and further – 1.3300 (the upper line of this indicator). Given the fact that the pound did not actually respond to previous rumors, it can be assumed that the reaction to the results of the summit will be characterized by increased volatility.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 10. Traders believe that the UK will avoid a hard Brexit scenario

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Two days left before the UK leaves the EU without an agreement, but traders are in no hurry to sell the British pound, as they believe in a new postponement of the release date. Buyers currently need to return to a resistance of 1.3079, which could lead to a formation of an uptrend with the update of the upper limit of the side channel of 1.3119 and a test of the new high in the area of 1.3160, where I recommend to lock in the profit. In case of weak inflation data in the first half of the day, it is best to consider new long positions on a false breakdown from support at 1.3032 or to rebound from a larger low of 1.2988.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Any negative news on Brexit will put pressure on the British pound, however, the bears will count on a weak inflation report today, which could lead to a false breakdown at 1.3079 and the GBP/USD being sold near a low of 1.3032. Breaking through the lower border of the side channel will lead the pair to the support area of 1.2988 and 1.2950, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above a resistance of 1.3079 on good data on inflation, it is best to count on new short positions from the upper border of the side channel of 1.3119 or on a rebound from the high of 1.3160.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

In case of a successive wave of the pound's decline, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.3032.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 10. A trend for the euro might be formed today

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Today is an important day for the euro, since there will be a lot of significant data and the European Central Bank meeting will be held. In the first half of the day, buyers need to form a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1254, which will lead to an update of this week's high in the area of 1.1284. However, only a breakthrough would be able to form a new uptrend, making it possible for levels 1.1324 and 1.1358 to be updated, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro declines in the first half of the day, it is best to consider new long positions to rebound from a large low in the area of 1.1223 and 1.1183.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The bears will wait for the outcome of the European Central Bank meeting, as well as the speech of President Mario Draghi. In the first half of the day, sellers can show themselves only after the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1284, which will lead to renewed pressure on the euro and a drop in the support area of 1.1254. However, the main task of sellers will be a breakthrough of this level with a test of the low in the region of 1.1223 and 1.1183, where I recommend taking profits. In case the EUR/USD increases above 1.1284 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from a high of 1.1324.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

Only a break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1284 will lead to a revival of the uptrend.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 10/04/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has moved a little bit higher during the corrective cycle and the upper boundary of the corrective channel was almost hit. The local high was made at the level of 1.1284 before the pull-back towards the level of 1.1254 occurred. The momentum remains positive and strong, so another leg up is possible despite the overbought market conditions. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1331 if the level of 1.1284 is clearly violated in an impulsive fashion.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1316

WR2 - 1.1286

WR1 - 1.1248

Weekly Pivot - 1.1215

WS1 - 1.1175

WS2 - 1.1141

WS3 - 1.1100

Trading recommendations:

The trend remains bearish, so the level of 1.1284 might be a good place to re-enter the sell orders with a tight protective stop loss. If this level is violated clearly, short-term buy orders can be opened with a target at the level of 1.1331.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 10/04/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has moved a little bit higher during the corrective cycle and the upper boundary of the corrective channel was almost hit. The local high was made at the level of 1.1284 before the pull-back towards the level of 1.1254 occurred. The momentum remains positive and strong, so another leg up is possible despite the overbought market conditions. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1331 if the level of 1.1284 is clearly violated in an impulsive fashion.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1316

WR2 - 1.1286

WR1 - 1.1248

Weekly Pivot - 1.1215

WS1 - 1.1175

WS2 - 1.1141

WS3 - 1.1100

Trading recommendations:

The trend remains bearish, so the level of 1.1284 might be a good place to re-enter the sell orders with a tight protective stop loss. If this level is violated clearly, short-term buy orders can be opened with a target at the level of 1.1331.

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Technical analysis for EURUSD for April 10, 2019

EURUSD made a new higher high yesterday near 1.1284 and continues to trade in a short-term bullish trend making higher highs and higher lows. Our short-term target area has been reached but there is potential of moving towards 1.13-1.1320 area.

analytics5cad8b09411a7.png

Red lines - medium-term trend bearish channel

Green rectangle - major support area

Black line - resistance trend line (broken)

Short-term trend has reversed to bullish as we expected by the double bottom and bullish divergence signs we got last week. Breaking above the black trend line resistance confirmed this short-term trend change. Medium-term trend remains bearish as price remains inside the downward sloping red channel. Price in the short-term continues to make higher highs and higher lows and I expect to see price move closer or even above 1.13. Major resistance is found around 1.1330. Breaking above this level will open the way for a larger move higher. Support is found at 1.1240-1.1250 and bulls would not want to see this level broken.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 10/04/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has still been trading inside of the range since the middle of the March and so far the price is just bouncing from the technical support around the level of 1.2996. The market continues trading in the middle of the range between the levels of 1.2996 - 1.3183, but the bulls are not that keen to break through the orange trend line anymore. The momentum remains neutral as neither bulls nor bears have control over the market and both sides. The breakout of the range might be severe and will likely happen on Friday after the decision regarding the Brexit will be published.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3339

WR2 - 1.3263

WR1 - 1.3130

Weekly Pivot - 1.3056

WS1 - 1.2826

WS2 - 1.2851

WS3 - 1.2712

Trading recommendations:

The global investors wait for the breakout in either direction and because the range is now very tight, the breakout might be severe. Please notice, the larget time frame trend remains bullish.

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Technical analysis for Gold for April 10, 2019

Gold price has moved back above $1,300 and bulls have so far recaptured an important short-term resistance level. Gold price is heading towards $1,315 which is our short-term target since last week when bullish divergence signs were given.

analytics5cad8a191f031.png

Black line - trend line resistance

Red rectangle - bounce target

Green rectangle - major support area

Blue lines - bullish divergence

Blue rectangle - short-term resistance (broken)

Gold price has broken through short-term resistance confirming our expectations for a push towards the black trend line resistance and our target of $1,315. Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows and it is a matter of time to reach the next important resistance area of $1,315-20. Support is found at $1,300-$1,298 area. The RSI has not reached overbought levels yet and we continue to be at least short-term optimistic.

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Burning forecast 04/10/2019

The main event on Wednesday - negotiations in the EU to postpone Brexit - due to the inability of the British authorities to accept an agreement with the EU on relations after Brexit.

Most likely, EU leaders will decide to postpone Britain's withdrawal before the end of the year.

This will probably be a positive for the market.

Also late in the evening at 18.00 London time, the report (minutes) of the last Fed meeting will be released.

Most likely, there will not be anything unexpected: the Fed's soft position, the rates will not be raised until the end of the year.

EURUSD: buy from 1.1255.

Alternative: we sell from 1.1180.

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