GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 2, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, a bearish breakout of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market. Persistence below the zone between 1.4950 and 1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline towards 1.4700.

Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom (which initiated the ongoing bullish swing) was reached. A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800 which offered a valid sell entry. The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, higher highs around the level of 1.5200 were hit. That applied strong bullish pressure over the resistance level around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900.

Risky traders could take a valid sell entry anywhere around 1.5900-1.5930. It is already running in profits now.

Note that the price level of 1.5780 remains significant resistance level, which provided valid SELL entries previously on May 15 and recently on June 29.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.5555 is considered a prominent DEMAND Level which also corresponds to the depicted uptrend line.

A valid BUY entry can be offered around 1.5560. S/L should be set as daily closure below 1.5500.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 2, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looks quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were reached within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend) for the USD/CAD pair. Bullish support was offered around these levels. A bullish pullback took place shortly after.

Recently, the price zone of 1.2450-1.2500 constituted strong resistance (backside of the broken uptrend and the previous consolidation zone).

As anticipated, a daily candlestick closure below 1.2430 (previous week) enhanced further bearish decline. Since then, the price zone around 1.2400 has constituted solid intraday resistance for the USD/CAD pair.

However, the previous weekly candlestick closed at 1.2270 (reflecting lack of enough bearish momentum). That is why, an extensive bullish corrective movement is now being expressed on the chart.

On the other hand, the USD/CAD pair needs a frank weekly closure below 1.2300 to ensure further bearish decline in the long term.

However, persistence above the level of 1.2400 enhanced a bullish pullback towards 1.2600 (the key level depicted on the chart) where a valid sell entry may be offered.

The price level of 1.2650 should be defended by bears (upper limit of the weekly channel as well as a prominent DAILY resistance). However, a daily closure above 1.2650 invalidates this bearish scenario.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 2, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 850 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflect bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a bearish breakout of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term projection target is located at 0.9450.

However, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 may be executed ONLY if May's monthly high 1.1465 gets breached (considered a low probability now).

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After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (slightly below the depicted daily supply level).

This week, the market opened around the price level of 1.1000 (following a large bearish gap). The price level of 1.1000 corresponds to the depicted DAILY uptrend. That is why, an ascending bottom was expected to be established there.

However, re-closure again below the price level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair again towards 1.1000 where the uptrend can be visited again (significant DEMAND).

Bulls must keep trading above 1.1000 so that further bullish advancement can be expected.

Initial bullish target would be located at 1.1150 and 1.1300 (a prominent supply level to be watched).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 2, 2015

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Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

Shortly after, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly key zone of 1.5500-1.5550 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

Last month, the market has been pushed above this weekly key zone at 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, this SUPPLY level enhanced a bearish pullback towards 1.5550 which should be watched carefully for significant price action (the resulting weekly candlestick closure should be assessed).

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A bearish breakout of the depicted bullish channel took place as a result of the bearish pressure which existed around 1.5780 and 1.5660 (bearish engulfing candlesticks and lower highs).

After a bearish breakout of 1.5500-1.5550 (lower limit of the broken channel), the market failed to gather enough bearish momentum towards the intraday demand level at 1.5100.

Significant bullish pressure was observed around 1.5200. Hence, a bullish swing was established towards 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.5880 (FE 100%).

As anticipated, the price zone (1.5800-1.5880) remains a significant supply zone for the GBP/USD pair. It offered a valid SELL entry last week. S/L should be lowered to 1.5680. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.5550 constitute a significant DEMAND level for the pair (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top).

It should be watched for a valid BUY entry if signs of bullish rejection are expressed on the H4 chart. Initial bullish target would be located at 1.5680-1.5700.

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EUR/NZD analysis for July 02, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6491 in a high volume. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak demand bar, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The short-term trend changed from bullish to neutral. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe up-thrust bar (bearish), which is a sign for bearish movements. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.6400, Fibonacci retracement 50% at the level of 1.6330 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.6260.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6450

R2: 1.6480

R3: 1.6530

Support levels:

S1: 1.6360

S2: 1.6330

S3: 1.6280

Trading recommendations: The short-term trend has changed from bullish to neutral. Bearish phase is in progress and buying looks risky.

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Gold analysis for July 02, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,159.05 in an average volume. Our support cluster around the price of $1,162.00 was finally broken. Buying looks risky at this stage, because major support at the price of $1,162.00 was broken. We may expect potential testing of the levels of $1,142.00 and $1,131.00 (swing lows). The short-term trend is bearish. Watch for selling opportunities after retracements.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,173.00

R2: 1,175.00

R3: 1,178.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,167.00

S2: 1,165.00

S3: 1,162.50

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold since our strong support at the price of of $1,162.00 got broken. Watch for selling opportunities after retracements.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 2, 2015

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from the minor resistance at 1.1115 and support has been already placed at the level of 1.1029. It is now approaching its support in order to test it, so it will probably start downside movement in this area and recover again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell at this spot with the first target of 1.1000 and continue towards 1.0954 (it should be noted that this level will form the weekly support 2). On the other hand, the best location to set stop loss should be placed at 1.1152 in case of a break of 1.1115.

Trading recommendations:

  • According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair has been still trapped between the levels of 1.1115 and 1.0954 (those levels coincided with the Fibonacci retracement levels 50% and the double bottom respectively). It should be noted that the 1.0960 price (around double bottom at the level of 1.0954) will act as a strong support on July 2, 2015.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 2, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CAD pair broke the resistance of 1.2482, which turned to support. Thereupon, the pair has already found strong support at the level of 1.2482. Also, it should be noted that the minor support has set at the level of 1.2522 and the same level represents the double bottom. After the pair had failed to close below those levels, the market became bullish in that area. Additionally, the RSI and last strong support (around the double bottom at 1.2522) are still calling for uptrend at this spot. Consequently, the pair will call for an upside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the rise does not look corrective in order to indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2522. It will be a good sign to buy at 1.2530 with the first target at 1.2640. The pair will continue its bullish move towards 1.3608. The ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels coincides with the level of 1.2702 to form strong resistance in coming days. However, it should also be noted that the price is going to move between 1.2530 and 1.2702 in the long term.
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USDX technical analysis for July 2, 2015

The US Dollar Index remains in a strong uptrend since it bounced from cloud resistance of 94.50. It is moving towards new short-term higher highs. The medium-term bearish trend is not canceled yet as the price remains below medium-term resistance at 97.

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Blue line - support

The US Dollar Index is above the cloud support and in a bullish trend as the price hits higher highs and higher lows. Support is seen at 95 and resistance is seen at 97. There is mounting risk of reversal if bulls do not manage to break above 97. A pullback towards 95.50 will not cancel the short-term bullish trend.

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Blue line - medium-term trend line resistance

The US Dollar Index strengthening have pushed the weekly candle above the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. However, the most important resistance is still intact. The blue downward sloping trend-line resistance at 97 is the medium-term resistance that bulls need to break. In this case, the bearish scenario will have even less chances for success.

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Gold technical analysis for July 2, 2015

Gold price brake out below the triangle pattern. This is not a good sign for bulls. Inability to produce a bounce even towards $1,200 and the break of short-term support are signs of weakness. However, the most important support is seen at $1,130-50. Losing that level will push the precious metal below $1,000.

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Blue lines- triangle pattern

Gold price cane below the Ichimoku cloud and brake the lower triangle boundary. At the same time, we break below the low hit earlier in June. Next important support is seen at the low of $1,140 hit in February. Short-term esistance is seen at $1,170-75.

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Blue line - long-term trend line support

The weekly chart remains bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. The price is heading towards the important long-term blue trendline. A break below this trendline will open the way to $1,000 or even $900.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 02, 2015

The pair extended gains for the third day as well managed to close above all daily moving averages and 20Wsma. The pair gave a break on the higher side of the symmetric pattern.

The pair regains the lost daily moving averages and closed above those levels. All these factors support bulls. In the hourly and daily time intervals, the pair has been hitting higher lows. Today, ahead of the US employment data, USD is trading lower against CAD at the Asian session. The intraday resistance is seen at 1.2600, 1.2640, and 1.2670. Intraday support is found at 1.2560 and 1.2500.The trend favours buying with sl 1.2300 now shifted to 1.2400. Support is found at 1.2300 and 1.2200. Earlier, we forecasted that bulls would aim for 1.2600 until the pair held 1.2300, which was completed. After a mild correction, bulls headed even higher towards 1.2660 and 1.2740.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 02, 2015

The pair hold the 50Dsma approaching 20Dsma at 123.50. To regain the near-term strength, bulls must close above 20Dsma. In the H1 and H4, bulls managed to close above all moving averages. Until the pair holds the level of 122.70, bulls will try to visit the previous double top at 124.40 again. At today's Asian session, the pair was unable to breach the 20Dsma. Tthe positive US data might take the pair towards 123.90 today. Intraday support is found at 123.10, 122.90, and 122.70. We avise to buy only above 123.50.

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Technical analysis of USDX for Juny 02, 2015

Strong data pushed the US Dollar Index towards 100Dsma. The index managed to close above that level at yesterday's session.

Private sector employment increased by 237,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report. The June PMI® registered 53.5 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point over the May reading of 52.8 percent.

The US Dollar Index hit a higher low of 93.56 changing its direction towards north. The parallel resistance is seen at 96.42 trading at 96.32 during today's Asian session. In case bulls manage to stay above 96.45 for couple of hours, they will aim for 96.90 and 97.50 initially. The double top formation is seen at 97.80. Today's jobs data will provide clear near-term picture. In case of a daily close above 97.00, bulls will target 99.00. Support is found at 96.00 and 95.60. Until bulls hold 94.68, the bullish view remains in play.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 02, 2015

The euro extended its fall for the second consecutive day closing below 20&50Dsma with a 0.6% loss. Soft data from the UK pulled the cable towards a 2-weeks low.

The UK manufacturing growth hit its slowest rate in last 26 months. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a 26-month low of 51.4 in June down from a revised reading of 51.9 in May. US ADP and ISM manufacturing PMI data boosted US dollar bulls.

Overview: The cable is trading below the previous swing high of 1.5815 and below 50Wsma at 1.5650. The cable managed to breach the falling bearish channel consolidating a tight range of 138 pips between 1.5665 and 1.5803 finally closed below that with targets at 1.5550 or 1.5520. The weekly resistance is seen at 1.5640, 1.5735, and 1.5805. The weekly support is found at 1.5650 50Wsma, 1.5550, and 1.5490. Whereas the 200hrsma and Ema is between 1.5560 and 1.5540.

Intraday: The cable has been hitting lower highs and lower lows in the H1 and H4 charts. Intraday support is found at 1.5570, 1.5560, and 1.5540. we will find strong supports every 10 to 20 pips. The hourly momentum indicated that levels are oversold. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.5630, 1.5675, and 1.5700. The bulls must close above1.5730 to regain the control.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 02, 2015

The euro extended its fall for the second consecutive day closing below 20&50Dsma. The Greek PM accepted the creditors' proposals, but the pair's reaction was quite opposite.

Data on the PMI was put aside at yesterday's session. Greece's referendum was the only factor which traders expressed concern about. However, the Spanish Market PMI came out at 54.5 in June against 55.8 in May, but still signaling a solid improvement in the sector.

The Germany PMI, designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy, rose to 51.9 in June from 51.1 in May signaling an acceleration of manufacturing growth in Germany. Besides, the US delivered strong data.

Today traders eye Spanish unemployment change. ECB President Mario Draghi's speech is due today.

Technical view: The pair had rejected at 20Dsma & 100Dema earlier. At yesterday's session, it rejected at 50Dsma losing the same moving averages. The 100Dema is found at 1.1040. The 2Wsma is seen at 1.1030. A daily close below 100Dema is likely to open gates towards 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0850, and 1.0800 initially. It is expected to extend towards 1.0660 later.

In both the H1 and H4 charts, the pair has been reaching lower lows and lower highs. Intraday support is found at 1.1025, 1.0970, and 1.0930. Resistance is seen at 1.1080 and 1.1130. Until the pair closes below 1.1200, use rises to sell with a target at 1.0900.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 2, 2015

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Technical summary:

We are still awaiting a break above resistance at 1.6577 to continue higher towards 1.7145,which is the next major upside target. Short-term support is found at 1.6469 and strong support is seen at 1.6367, which will ideally protect the down side for a breakout above 1.6577.

An unexpected break below support at 1.6367, will delay the expected upside pressure for more consolidation. We expect a decline closer to 1.6160 before the next move higher.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6475 or upon a break above 1.6577 with stop placed at 1.6350.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 2, 2015

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Technical summary:

We are still awaiting a break above minor resistance at 138.68 to confirm continuation higher to 141.06 and 144.03. In the short term, minor support at 136.08 will ideally protect the downside for a break above 138.68, but only a break below support at 133.07 will question the uptrend from 126.05.

In the long term, we continue to look for a rally above a high of 149.55 hit in December 2014.

Trading recommendation:

We will only buy EUR upon a break above 138.68.

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Global macro overview for 02/07/2015 NZD Edging Lower

Global macro overview for 02/07/2015 - NZD Edging Lower

After last night's disappointing diary product auction results, the New Zealand dollar is trading at its lowest levels since May 2010. The NZD/USD pair was trading -0.64% lower at the level of $0.6695 after diary product prices fell 5.9%. Another factor that added fuel to the fire was the divergent rate policy between New Zealand and the US, as the New Zealand Reserve Bank had cut its interest rate in June to support the slowing economic growth rate. Amid the ongoing situation, we expect further downward moving towards the support level.

From the technical point of view, traders can see the immediate support at the level of 0.6562 on the monthly chart (May 2010 low). It is quite close to the next possible support at the 61%Fibo at the level of 0.6403.

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Global macro overview for 02/07/2015 - Non-Farm Payrolls Data

Global macro overview for 02/07/2015 08:10 CET - Non-Farm Payrolls Data

Improving numbers from the labor market is a good sign for the good US economy, and the Fed is looking for another good number today to validate the first rate hike as early as in September 2015. Analysts expect the NFP number to be over 200 000 again ranging between 220,000– 235,000. Please remember the last reading had beat the expectations adding 60 000 more jobs than experts had expected (280,000 added vs forecast of 220,00). If the number is really solid, even two rate hikes could take place this year, just as mentioned Fed Governor Jerome Powell mentioned last month.

Important events to watch (GMT +2):

14:30 USA Unemployment Rate

14:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change

14:30 USA Change in Private Payrolls

14:30 USA Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings

14:30 USA Participation rate

14:30 USA Two-Month Payroll Net Revision

14:30 USA Unemployment Claims

14:30 USA Continuing Claims

16:00 USA Factory Orders

Possible market reaction to stronger than expected NFP number:

The stronger-than-expected number ( above 235 000) might result in a sharp decline of EUR/USD towards the support at the level of 1.0954, due to three main reasons:

- market response to better news is to buy the US dollar

- market might start to price in the possibility of a rate hike

- market might start to fly to safe heaven procedure ahead of the Greece's referendum on Sunday with the uncertain outcome

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 02, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is testing recent lows of $1,165.00/66.00 at the moment. Please note that a break below $1,165.00 would warrant a test of $1,160 and subsequently $1,143.00 threatening the bullish scenario here. It is recommended to remain long with risk at $1,150.00 but restrain yourself from taking fresh long positions now. Immediate support is seen at $1,165.00 (interim) followed by $1,160.00, $1,143.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $1,180.00 followed by $1,205.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long with stop is at $1,150.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 02, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver tested the recent low of $15.50 again before pulling back towards $15.90. The metal is seen to be trading around $15.55/60 now looking to reverse ahead of $15.50. A drop below $15.50 would provide the pair with room for a test of $15.30. On the other hand, the potential double top shall be confirmed on a rally towards $16.20. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk around $15.30. Immediate support is seen at the level of $15.50 levels (interim) followed by $15.30 and lower. Resistance is seen at $16.20/30 followed by $17.30 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $15.30, s target is open.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 2, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair is trending downwards now favoringe bears. The initial bearish target would be the support lines at 1.1000 and 1.0950, which would be attained either this week or next week.

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USD/CHF: The market is bullish owing to stamina of the USD. The price rose by 220 pips to above the support level at 0.9450 from the support level of 0.9250. Bulls will target for the resistance levels at 0.9500 and 0.9550 next. Moreover, some fundamental figures are expected today and they will have impact on the markets.

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GBP/USD: As forecasted, the GBP/USD pair broke below the distribution territory at 1.5650 testing the accumulation territory around 1.5600. The recent equilibrium phase is over resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. There is a possibility that this is the beginning of a protracted downtrend.

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USD/JPY: We recommend to avoided the USD/JPY pair until it shows a clean directional movement. There are short-term swings now, which could be deceptive, but there would be a strong trending movement once the supply level at 124.00 is breached to the upside or when the demand level of 122.00 is breached to the downside.

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EUR/JPY: This cross would be largely moved by the events surrounding the euro. Hence, the weaker euro has caused the cross to trend lower, forming a bearish signal. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the price is below them. The RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. Sell short.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 02, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around 136.50/60 at the moment looking for an opportunity to continue moving higher towards at least 140.00. Earlier, the pair had dropped sharply into the territori around 134.00 on the back drp of the Greek crisis, but managed to recover hitting a high of 138.00 the same day. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk at 133.00. Immediate support is seen at 134.00 (interim) followed by 133.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 140.00 followed by 141.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 02, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.4770 after testing resistance at 1.4800 levels yesterday. Please note that the pair has produced a bearish evening star candlestick pattern indicating a potential pullback lower. It seems that the first leg of a rally from the level of 1.4150 havebeen finished and a corrective drop towards 1.4400 should take place soon. It is recommended to remain short with risk at 1.4830. Immediate support is seen at 1.4500/50 followed by 1.4400 and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4800 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4830, a target is 1.4400.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 02, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news about ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, French 10-y Bond Auction, PPI m/m, and Spanish Unemployment Change is due. The US will unveil data on Natural Gas Storage, Factory Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1090.

Strong Resistance:1.1084.

Original Resistance: 1.1073.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1062.

Target Inner Area: 1.1037.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1012.

Original Support: 1.1001.

Strong Support: 1.0990.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0984.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 02, 2015

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At the Asian seassion, Japan will release data on the 10-y Bond Auction and Monetary Base y/y. The US is expected to unveil economic data on Gas Storage, Factory Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.03.

Resistance. 2: 123.79.

Resistance. 1: 123.55.

Support. 1: 123.25.

Support. 2: 123.01.

Support. 3: 122.77.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 2, 2015

General overview for 02/07/2015 05:10 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the market is still moving inside of a tight range of a triangle formation between the levels of 135.68 and 137.51. It will be doing so as long as the pattern is completed. The short-term bias is slightly bullish due to unfinished wave progression to the upside, but any breakout below the level of 135.68 will be considered bearish with a possible test of the wave A blue low.

Support/Resistance:

133.75 - Swing Low

135.68 - Invalidation Level | Intraday Support |

136.13 - Weekly Pivot

137.52 - Intraday Resistance (weak)

138.04 - WR1

138.09 - Intraday Resistance (strong)

Trading recommendations:

The market is still framed between two intraday levels and it is better to wait for a breakout in either direction.

eurjpy_h1.jpg

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 2, 2015

General overview for 02/07/2015 05:00 CET

The current count has been slightly changed as the previous alternative count had been invalidated due to longer-than-expected upward move in wave Z brown. Upgraded count is still bullish and its labeling includes two possible wave counts. Both counts are impulsive in fashion. Nevertheless, the current cycle looks like a beginning of a corrective cycle in wave 4 black and the suggested shape of this corrective cycle is a triangle. Please notice the black impulsive count invalidation line is at the level of 1.2421. S,o as long as this level is not violated, the bias remains bullish.

Support/Resistance:

1.2615 - WR3

1.2595 - Intraday Resistance

1.2537 - WR2

1.2498 - Intraday Support

1.2447 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should exit their long positions and consider refraining from trading until the corrective cycle is finished.

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 02, 2015

On the daily chart, the USDX had bullish momentum during yesterday and now it's trying to consolidate above the resistance level of 96.57. A successful move above that zone would open the doors to test the next high at 97.57 where strong resistance is located. For now, we should be cautious when trading in the upside.

USDXDaily.png

The USDX has been trading above the 200 SMA and now it's looking for an opportunuty to break the resistance level at 96.38 in order to reach the next target at 96.65. a deeper pullback could take place at the current levels before any rally, but we still want to see more upside moves as the current momentum is strong enough.

USDXH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57

Daily chart's support levels: 95.74 / 94.66

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.65

H1 chart's support levels: 96.13 / 95.89

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.38, take profit is at 96.65, and stop loss is at 96.13.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 02, 2015

Finally, GBP/USD is taking clear direction in the short term and the current structure on the daily chart is advising us about a possible testing of the support around 1.5543 where the 200 SMA is currently located. We could expect a rebound over there, towards the resistance zone of 1.5755. The MACD indicator remains at negative territory.

GBPUSDDaily.png

Wednesday's session was very bearish for the cable, which is currently trying to break the support level of 1.5589. If the pair achieves this zone, it would be expected to test the next low around the level of 1.5537. However, there is a high possibility of a test at the resistance level of 1.5687, after a breakout above 1.5650.

GBPUSDH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5755 / 1.5898

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5650 / 1.5687

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5589 / 1.5537

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 1.5650, take profit is at 1.5687, and stop loss is at 1.5614.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 01, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate after hitting the five-year low of 0.6745 on Tuesday. It is undermined by the divergent monetary policy stances of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the US Federal Reserve, soft dairy prices, and kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross and positive dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the improved risk sentiment.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6725. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6690. The pivot point stands at 0.6800. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6825 and the second target at 0.6850.

Resistance levels: 0.6825 0.68500.6895

Support levels: 0.6725 0.6690 0.6650

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 01, 2015

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.60 versus 94.99 early Tuesday) after stronger-than-expected US June Conference Board consumer confidence index of 101.4 (versus forecast 97.4). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year rose 1.8 bps to 2.349% Tuesday), demand from Japan's importers, the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen amid improved risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 3.29% to 18.23; S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 2,063.11 overnight) as markets were relatively calm even as Greece defaulted on its IMF loan repayment and its current bailout expires. But USD sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected US June ISM-Chicago PMI of 49.4 (versus forecast 50.2). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese exports.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.50 and the second target at 124. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 121.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 121.40. The pivot point is at 122.70.

Resistance levels: 123.50 124 124.50

Support levels: 121.70 121.40 121

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 01, 2015

USDCHFM30.png

USD/CHF is going to trade in a higher range. The Swissie sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected Switzerland June KOF economic barometer of 89.7 (versus forecast 93.5). USD/CHF is also supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.60 versus 94.99 early Tuesday) after stronger-than-expected US June Conference Board consumer confidence index of 101.4 (versus forecast 97.4), the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention, and the negative Swiss interest rates.

Technical comment:

The daily chart mixed as the MACD bullish, but stochastics neutral.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9455 and the second target at 0.9485. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9330 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9285. The pivot point is at 0.9375.

Resistance levels: 0.9455 0.9485 0.9535

Support levels: 0.9330 0.9285 0.9215

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 01, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png

GBP/JPY is going to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the ongoing Greece's crisis and Japan's exports. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers. But the sterling sentiment is soothed by stronger-than-expected UK Q1 final GDP growth of 2.9% on year (versus forecast for +2.5%).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining but stochastics is in a bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 191.30. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 190.65. The pivot point stands at 193.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194.65 and the second target at 195.30.

Resistance levels: 194.65 195.30 196

Support levels: 191.30 190.65 190

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