Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 16, 2020

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Overview :

The EUR/USD pair is trading mainly with growth in the range of 1.1920, after falling to a last-week low (1.1762). The market closed at the price of 1.1834.

On the hourly chart, the pair remains above the MA (100) H1 moving average line (1.1850). The situation is similar on the four-hour chart.

The EUR/USD pair rebounded to 1.1762 last week but failed to extend gain and retreated sharply.

In this situation, it is probably worth continuing to stick to the uptrend direction in trade, and look for exit points to buy. The most likely range of price movement today may be hidden within the range of 1.1762 - 1.1920.

Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.1850 will reaffirm the case that consolidation from 1.1850 has completed at 1.1920. Further rise would be seen to retest 1.1920 high.

The EUR/USD pair will face resistance at the level of 1.1920, while minor resistance is seen at 1.1850. Support is found at the levels of 1.1762 and 1.1724.

Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 1.1762.

Equally important, the EUR/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 1.1762, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment.

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair will be continued to move upwards from the level of 1.1762.

The level of 1.1762 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the EUR/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.1762 towards the target level of 1.1850.

If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.1850, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.1850 in order to reach the second target at 1.1920.

Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, rebuy orders are recommended above 1.1920 with the third target at 1.2000.

Then, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to 1.1920 mark and further to 1.2000 levels. The level of 1.2000 will act as strong resistance, and the double top is already set at 1.1920.

However, break of 1.1724 support will turn bias to the downside to extend the consolidation with another falling leg.

if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.1920, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.1920.

So, the market will decline further to 1.1762 in order to return to the daily . Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.1724.

Conclusion :

  • The EURUSD pair keeps its stability above 1.1762, which adds more support to the occasions of achieving more rise in the upcoming sessions and resume the main bullish trend, paving the way to head towards 1.1850 as a next main station, noting that holding above 1.1920 is important to continue the positive trades.

Technical levels for 16/11/2020

  • Resistance 3 : 1.2000
  • Resistance 2 : 1.1920
  • Resistance 1 : 1.1850
  • Pivot point : 1.1762
  • Support 1 : 1.1724
  • Support 2 : 1.1678
  • Support 3 : 1.1603
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EURUSD will continue to grow this week

Last week's trading closed above the banking level of 1.1803. This suggests that the growth of the European currency is supported by the Central Bank. Any decline should be considered as an opportunity to buy the pair. The growth target will be the banking zone and the level of 1.1937.

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The upward movement will remain a priority until the opening of European trading on November 18. Holding on to previously opened purchases is the optimal strategy. For those who need to enter the position, the focus should be on the level of 1.1803. Returning to this mark will allow you to get a favorable price. It remains to wait for the formation of the engulfing pattern to enter a long position.

In order to cancel the upward pattern, it is necessary to close today's trading below the level of 1.1803. The probability of this event is 30%, which makes sales from current levels unprofitable.

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EUR/USD: Fed and ECB's financial measures will help the economy and currencies

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A lot of experts agree that strong financial injections from leading regulators such as the Fed and ECB, will help the suffering economy. The key currencies will then catch up, allowing the EUR/USD pair to consolidate in an upward direction.

The worsening pandemic situation on both sides prevents the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair to be successful. The number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, which puts increasing pressure on both the economies of America and Europe. In this case, the markets are looking forward to stimulus measures from the ECB and the Fed, which can give new impulse to key economies.

Danske Bank experts believe that the EUR/USD pair will manage to break through the level of 1.2000, if the ECB will be the driver of the global economic recovery. In this scenario, the Fed is assigned to take the role of the main catalyst for inflation growth above the target level of 2%. The key to a successful global economic recovery will be a combination of factors such as an improved epidemiological situation in the world, progress in the Brexit negotiations in Europe, and positive developments in the US fiscal stimulus.

Technically, the EUR/USD pair will reach new peaks, in case of a relatively favorable development of events in the euro's exchange rate to the US dollar. According to Danske Bank, this is a matter for the next three months. However, most analysts are doubting optimistic prospects for key currencies. Currently, the classic pair has to constantly confirm its importance, breaking through to new levels. Today, the EUR/USD pair was moving around the level of 1.1851-1.1852. The bank is confident that if the current trends continue, major currencies will continue to drift in the range of 1.1500-1.1900.

The long-term prospects of the EUR/USD pair are also questionable. Analysts at Danske Bank agree with this, and so adhere to cautious forecasts, which are mainly aimed at deteriorating the dynamics of this pair. By now, their specialists have lowered their forecasts by 1-3 figures in the semi-annual and annual planning ranges. Danske Bank's calculations for the EUR/USD pair for 3 and 12 months provide for its dynamics in the range of 1.2000 and 1.1600, respectively.

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The US economy, whose main goal is to minimize the negative consequences of COVID-19, also has its own difficulties. Experts believe that the strengthening of the current problems will push regulators, in particular the Fed, to take new stimulating measures. In such a situation, we should not expect a quick return, since such measures imply a long-term effect.

In view of this, the Fed and the US government are currently ready to give the national economy with additional stimulus. Experts think that such a strategy will help unleash hidden potential that will emerge in 2021. By this time, the US economy will have accumulated significant demand, due to which the yields of long bonds can sharply rise. If this plan is realized, the USD will have a head start, allowing it to bypass the euro.

On the contrary, there will be a narrowed growth for the US dollar, if a negative scenario occurs, that is, when long yields are limited. In such a situation, the risk of moving real interest rates in the US into a negative zone increases. According to analysts, this drastically reduces the dollar's chances to rise. If such a scenario happens, experts believe that even the Fed's impulse will not pull the USD to a high level.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on November 16

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

The euro did not show active growth last Friday amid weak economic indicators from the euro area. According to reports, the final estimate of the EU GDP was worse than economists' forecasts, but thankfully was saved by improved activity in the labor market. Thus, the euro moved 15 pips up from 1.1820, and stopped there because of low growth incentives.

Then, in the afternoon, a disappointing report on US consumer sentiment was published, which decreased the positions of the US dollar in the market, thereby leading to the resumption of growth in risky assets.

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Trading recommendations for November 16

At the moment, the bulls are aiming for a price of 1.1863, the success of which was their main task last Friday. Fortunately, there is a high chance that this movement will be met today, especially since consumer prices in Italy will be published, and the European Central Bank is scheduled to release a number of statements. But since the ECB President, Christine Lagarde, has already been speaking these past few weeks, there is a rather low chance of hearing any new changes. Thus, most likely, the demand for the euro will remain, and the bulls will continue their attempts on bringing the quote back to the monthly highs.

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  • Open a long position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1861 (green line on the chart) and then take profit at the level of 1.1895. However, growth will occur only in the event that the ECB does not announce any plans to implement negative key rates.
  • Open a short position when the euro reaches a quote of 1.1836 (red line on the chart) and then take profit around the level of 1.1800. Sell the euro only if the economic reports from Italy come out worse than economists' forecasts.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

The British pound moved 60 pips up from 1.3129 last Friday, reaching a quote of 1.3180 as forecasted. It seems that the market is all right even if the Bank of England resorts to negative interest rates.

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Trading recommendations for November 16

The position of the pound shall rely today on the statements from the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, which are unlikely to be negative and cause serious decline in the quotes. There is a high chance that the bullish momentum from the Asian session will continue.

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  • Open a long position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3244 (green line on the chart) and then take profit around the level of 1.3293 (thicker green line on the chart). If the Bank of England leaves key rates unchanged, demand for the British pound may increase.
  • Open a short position when the quote reaches the level of 1.3214 (red line on the chart). A breakout of this range will bring pressure back to the pair, which will push the pound towards the level of 1.3169.
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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 16. COT reports. Pound buyers are approaching resistance at 1.3248, bracing

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

A fairly good signal to sell the British pound appeared last Friday afternoon. And it seemed like it went down, the movement gained 20 points three times, but then it stopped. The bad data on the deterioration of consumer sentiment in the US surprised with its numbers and also disappointed buyers of the US dollar. This is primarily due to the lack of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats on a new package of measures to help the economy and the Americans, as well as because of the new wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which forces them to resort to measures of social distancing and isolation. Let's take a look at the deal. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears formed a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3172 and the pair returns to the area under this range, above which the bulls can no longer climb. Testing this level from the bottom up led to producing a signal to sell the pound, which I drew attention to in my Friday review.

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The situation for buyers of the pound has not changed much. It just changed the goals that the bulls will stick to at the beginning of this week. The initial challenge for the first half of the day is to defend support at 1.3172, which will only be tested if the bullish Asian momentum wanes. Forming a false breakout there will stop the bears, which will give confidence to buyers and return GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.3248, which they are striving for. Speeches by representatives of the Bank of England, which are scheduled for today, can support the pound, provided that they do not mention negative interest rates, which, obviously, will be introduced early next year. In the meantime, getting the pair to settle above the resistance of 1.3248 forms a new entry point into long positions in hopes for GBP/USD to continue rising and reach the high of 1.3310, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be resistance at 1.3378, but it will require a good reason for an update. In case bulls are not active in the 1.3172 area, it is best not to rush and hold off from long positions until a new low of 1.3106 has been tested, where you can buy the pound immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears have taken a wait-and-see attitude and the main focus is on protecting the resistance of 1.3248. How sellers behave at this level today will determine the pair's succeeding direction. If buyers are not active, then a false breakout in the 1.3248 area will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound, in hopes for it to fall to support 1.3172, which is now the middle of the horizontal channel. It will be possible to say that the bears have taken the market under their control only when they have successfully settled below 1.3172, which will quickly pull the pound to the lower border of this channel at 1.3106. Only its breakout will show that the bearish trend has returned, which could pull down the pound to new lows of 1.3034 and 1.2976, which is where I recommend taking profits. In case bears are not active at 1.3248, it is best to postpone short positions until the test of the monthly high of 1.3310, or sell the pound immediately on a rebound from resistance at 1.3378, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 showed a reduction in long positions and a slight increase in short positions. Long non-commercial positions fell from 31,799 to 27,701. At the same time, short non-commercial positions slightly rose from 38,459 to 38,928. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was 11,227 against 6,660 a week earlier, which indicates that the sellers of the British pound retain control and also shows their minimal advantage in the current situation.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of maintaining the bullish momentum formed during the Asian session.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3145 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 16. COT reports. Euro regains strength after weak data on the US economy

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Although we did not wait for some sort of market-entry signal last Friday, buyers of the euro still managed to seize the moment and strengthened their positions against the US dollar after the release of weak fundamental reports. The report on the sharp decline in consumer sentiment in the United States surprised with its numbers. This is primarily due to the lack of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats on a new package of measures to help the economy and the Americans, as well as because of the new wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which calls for measures of social distancing and isolation. The 5-minute chart clearly shows that there were no entry points to the market, since we did not reach any of the levels.

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From a technical point of view, not much has changed either, but there are some changes. There is a new support at 1.1832, and buyers will focus on this particular level in the first half of the day. If the euro bulls manage to protect support at 1.1832, then forming a false breakout there will be a good entry point into long positions, in hopes for the pair to reach the resistance area of 1.1868, which is where the pair might temporarily stop growing. The next target will be the monthly high of 1.1915, where I recommend taking profits. No particularly important fundamental reports for the day, so if bulls are not active in the 1.1832 area, then it is possible for EUR/USD to return under this range. In this case, buyers will focus on protecting support at 1.1797 in the first half of the day. However, you can open long positions from it on the first test, based on a correction of 15-20 points within the day. A larger reversal in favor of buyers will occur if they manage to form a false breakout at 1.1743.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The initial task of sellers is to return to the 1.1832 level, which appeared last Friday afternoon. Settling below 1.1832 and testing it from the bottom up produces a more convenient entry point for short positions, in hopes to bring back the downward trend. In this case, the nearest target of the bears will be the low of 1.1797. Testing this level will only indicate that the pair is stuck in a horizontal channel. Going beyond and settling below this range will lead EUR/USD to the lower border of the horizontal channel at 1.1743, where I recommend taking profit. Going beyond this area will increase the pressure on the pair and quickly pull it down to the low of 1.1701, which will indicate the resumption of a new bearish trend. If the bulls are stronger and continue to push the pair up following European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech, then it is best not to rush to sell, and wait for the update of the larger resistance of 1.1868. However, you can only sell from this level if a false breakout appears there. I recommend opening short positions on EUR/USD immediately for a rebound, but only from the monthly high of 1.1915, based on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

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Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 3 showed a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. Despite this, buyers of risky assets still believe that the bull market will go on, although they prefer to proceed with caution. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 217,443 to 208,237, while short non-commercial positions rose from 61,888 to 67,888. The total non-commercial net position fell to 140 349, from 155,555 a week earlier. Take note that the bullish sentiment on the euro remains rather high in the medium term, especially after Joe Biden's victory, who intends to endow the American economy with the next largest monetary aid package worth more than $2 trillion.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair 11/16/20

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market may continue to move up from the level of 1.1835 (Friday's daily candle close), in order to reach the resistance line-1.1857 (white bold line). If this line will be tested, an upward movement will most likely continue with the target of 1.1920 at the upper fractal (red dotted line).

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Figure 1 (daily chart).

Complex Analysis:

  • Indicator Analysis - up
  • Fibonacci Levels - up
  • Volumes - up
  • Candle Analysis - up
  • Trend Analysis - up
  • Bollinger Bands - up
  • Weekly Chart - up

General Conclusion:

Today, the price may move up to reach the resistance line-1.1857 (white bold line). If this line will be tested, the upward movement will most likely continue with the target of 1.1920 at the upper fractal (red dotted line).

Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1835 (closing of the Friday daily candle) it will go up to reach the resistance line of 1.1857 (white bold line). If this line will be tested, it will go down with the target of 1.1644 – a pullback level of 38.2% (red dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for November 16, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD had started a new trading week above the level of 1.3220 and due to the strong momentum might continue this move even higher. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3264 - 1.3283, so any violation of this zone will open the road towards the swing high seen at 1.3306. The local technical support is seen at the level of 1.3165 and 1.3121, so as long as GBP trades above this levels the outlook remains bullish. The higher time frame trend remains up as well with a target seen at the level of 1.3380.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3481

WR2 - 1.3397

WR1 - 1.3286

Weekly Pivot - 1.3197

WS1 - 1.3085

WS2 - 1.2994

WS3 - 1.2882

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for November 16, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair might have started another wave higher after 38% retracement of the last wave up had been tested. The move up looks like a bounce for now, but if the level of 1.1879 is violated, then the bulls will be in control of the market again and might push the price higher towards the swing high seen at the level of 1.1920. The strong and positive momentum supports the bullish short-term outlook for Euro.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2099

WR2 - 1.2008

WR1 - 1.1924

Weekly Pivot - 1.1834

WS1 - 1.1747

WS2 - 1.1659

WS3 - 1.1571

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. The recent correction towards the level of 1.1612 seems to be completed and now market is ready for another wave up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 16, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

CitiBank Managing Director Tom Fitzpatrick, in his latest report "Bitcoin: 21st Century Gold", points to clear analogies between the 1970 gold market and Bitcoin.

The basis for comparing bitcoin with gold, according to Fitzpatricks, is monetary inflation and the devaluation of the dollar:

"Bitcoin was born in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis (2008) which brought a new shift in the monetary regime as we reached zero interest rates."

Fitzpatrick pointed out that this resulted in the first Bitcoin bull cycle (2011 to 2013) when its value increased 555 times.

The current COVID-19 crisis and the associated government monetary and fiscal response create a similar market environment to gold in the 1970s. Governments have made it clear that they will not avoid unprecedented money printing until GDP and employment rates return to normal.

Fitzpatrick did not stop there. His Bitcoin price projection chart shows a value of $ 318,000 through December 2021.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been seen trading in a narrow range located between the levels of $15,834 - $16,072 during the weekend. The market volatility has decreased, but the price of Bitcoin is still above $15,000 despite the recent fell out from the ascending channel. The intraday technical support is seen at the level of $15,651 and the technical resistance is now a swing high located at $16,418. As long as the market trades above the level of $15,000 the outlook remains bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $18,219

WR2 - $17,297

WR1 - $16,656

Weekly Pivot - $15,563

WS1 - $14,969

WS2 - $14,056

WS3 - $13,330

Trading Recommendations:

Bitcoin is trading at the yearly highs and bulls are in control of the market. The up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $16,000, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $10,000 is broken.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on the GBP/USD currency pair for November 16, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the market from the level of 1.3187 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) may continue to move upward with the goal of 1.3231 - a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line). When testing this level, continue working upward with the goal of 1.3282, which is a pullback level of 85.4% (blue dotted line).

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Figure 1 (Daily Chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

  • Indicator analysis - up
  • Fibonacci levels - up
  • Volumes - up
  • Candlestick analysis - down
  • Trend analysis - up
  • Bollinger bands - up
  • Weekly chart - up

General conclusion:

The price will try to continue moving upward today with the target of 1.3282 - the resistance line (white bold line). When testing this line, continue working up with the target of 1.3310-the upper fractal (red dotted line).

Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3187 (closing of the Friday's daily candlestick), the price may start moving upward with the goal of 1.3231 - a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line). When testing this level, work downward with a target of 1.3159, which is a pullback level of 23.6% (red dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 16, 2020

Crypto Industry Outlook:

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said he needed to do more to block "smart" US traders from illegally accessing its global stock exchange. In an interview with the financial media, CZ said its stock exchange needs to be "smarter about the way we block" US traders from accessing the platform:

"Basically, we are constantly trying to improve our security. Sometimes there are a few guys who want to bypass our locks and still use the platform. We have to come up with a smarter way to strengthen protection, and when we do, we lock them."

Binance, which is the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume, stopped serving US traders in September 2019 due to regulatory risk. The stock market later launched Binance.US in partnership with BAM Trading Services, which was approved by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to serve US clients.

Binance.US is a separate entity that licenses technology from Binance and receives brand support from the Malta Stock Exchange. Binance.US transaction volumes are said to be only a small fraction of the daily turnover on the main Binance exchange. However, reported volumes are often inflated and do not reflect actual trading activity. It is said that the big stock exchanges continue to publish false figures.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been seen moving lower towards the level of $440 after the corrective cycle had started. The local low was made at the level of $438.18, but the market keeps moving inside of the descending channel. The outlook remains bullish and the next target for bulls is the swing high located at the level of $476.29. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $459.47. Only if a daily candle closes below $360 level, then the bears will have full control of the market and might push the prices deeper below this level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $507.71

WR2 - $490.25

WR1 - $463.71

Weekly Pivot - $448.80

WS1 - $421.33

WS2 - $405.66

WS3 - $377.90

Trading Recommendations:

The up trend on the Ethereum continues and the next long term target for ETH/USD is seen at the level of $500, so any correction or local pull-back should be used to open the buy orders. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $309.61 is broken.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 16, 2020

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A push through minor resistance at 138.51 will confirm that the correction from 140.32 is complete and a new impulsive rally is unfolding towards 140.32 and above towards the former peak at 142.72 and ultimately above here too, for a rally closer to 147.51.

Important support remains seen at 137.51 and only a break below here will indicate that the correction from 140.18 still is in motion, but the potential downside should be very limited.

R3: 140.17

R2: 139.06

R1: 138.51

Pivot: 138.14

S1: 137.93

S2: 137.51

S3: 137.16

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.45 with our stop placed at 137.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 16, 2020

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EUR/JPY is ever so slowly approching the corrective target at 123.58 from where we expect a new impulsive rally through minor resistance at 124.30 for renewed upside pressure towards the former peak at 127.02 and ultimately above here too for a continuation higher towards 129.06.

A direct break above minor resistance will indicate that EUR/JPY has completed it correction from 125.13 and is ready the next push higher.

R3: 125.72

R2: 125.00

R1: 124.65

Pivot: 124.13

S1: 123.95

S2: 123.58

R3: 123.23

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.25 with our stop placed at 123.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast of EUR/USD for November 16, 2020: 1.1726 weekly support to ensure the uptrend.

Last week the Euro remained within a range of 150 pip. There is no stronger news which will reverse the trend in the medium term.

The new restrictions and the confinements in several countries of the eurozone to contain the contagion of the virus will weaken the GDP in this last quarter of the year. To cope with the economic crisis, market participants are speculating that the ECB will increase further stimulus at its monetary policy meeting in December.

In the 4-hour chart, we note that EUR/USD is trading above the pressure line and the 200-day EMA which are the key levels that place the euro in an upward trend.

A daily close clearly below 1.1770 will change this trend with targets to support the 0/8 murray line, a key support level (1.1718)

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On the upside it will be hard for the Euro to stay above 1.1920, a daily close above this level would point to testing 1.2000.

In the weekly chart, the pair remains above the EMA 21 weeks, with an upward trend, the key area for it to remain with an upward trend is 1.1726, it shows the pair is above this level, we expect it to continue in the long term with targets up to 1.2000 and 1.2163.

The eagle indicator is at the 61 level showing bullish strength in weekly charts.

Therefore, our recommendation is while the pair is above 1.1726 we will buy this pair, a weekly close below this level could change the trend.

Our Forecast for November 16:

Sell bellow 1.1770 with take profit in 1.1720. Stop loss is above 1.1800

Buy if rebound around 1.1804 and 1.1775 with target 1.1904. Stop loss is below 1.1765.

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Forecast of GBP/USD for November 16, 2020: 1.3170 and 1.3140 are key levels to trade according to the trend

This week, the talks on Brexit is due to continue , which may be decisive for the British pound. The news could be that the pound could rise and decline quickly, if the data is not favorable. So be ready for higher volatility.

It is essential to remember that both sides have agreed an expiration date on December 31, when the transition period ends. Until then, the pound will be very sensitive to any news about Brexit.

At the technical analysis level, we note that the pound is above the pivot point of 4/8, while it remains above the 1.3168 level, there is a possibility that it will rise to 1.3278, a resistance zone. The target in the medium term is seen at 1.3384.

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In the 1-hour chart. we note that the pair is being supported by the 200 EMA. The chart can be seen in our previous analysis. This level is the key if the pair breaks below and makes a pullback, we would expect a fall to the EMA 200 H4, located at 1.3011.

According to market sentiment, there are 62% of traders and companies that are selling the pound, which means that this pair can continue to rise to 1.3380 as a short-term objective.

Our recommendation is to buy above 1.3170 and sell below 1.3135. These are the key zones to trade according to the trend.

Our Forecast for November 16:

Sell bellow 1.3135 with take profit in 1.3065 and 1.3011. Stop loss is above 1.3170.

Buy above 1.3180 and 1.3200 with target 1.3305 and 1.3340. Stop loss could be set below 1.3140

Our support and resistance levels for November 16

Resistance (1) 1.3228

Support (1) 1.3138

Resistance (2) 1.3259

Support (2) 1.3077

Resistance (3) 1.3319

Support (3) 1.3047

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 16, 2020

EUR/USD

The dollar was unable to turn the tide in its favor at the end of last week. The postponement of the deadline for the Brexit negotiations to November 18th with the simultaneous appearance of the prospect of its postponement to an even later date, as well as Donald Trump's desire to have time to bring Judy Shelton, a nominal supporter of the gold standard, to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, the vote on which will be in the Senate tomorrow, along with active purchases of US government bonds, all these factors pushed the euro above the target level of 1.1830, opening the way for it to the nearest target of 1.1910 - to the MACD line on the daily chart. A little above the first target is the second one formed by the price channel line - 1.1940.

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The price tends to go above the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is already being introduced into the growth zone. We expect the euro to rise towards the first target at 1.1910, although here it is more appropriate to speak about the target range of 1.1910/40.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 16, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound continues to rise today in the Asian session. Investors are encouraged by another shift in the deadline for the Brexit talks, now to November 18th. If this deadline is overdue, then, according to rumors, it may be postponed to early December, even if the deal is ratified in January. At the moment, the last deadline for all procedures is December 31, after which England's exit from the EU should follow without a deal. But for now, the pound is aiming for 1.3350/80, formed by the highs on February and March 2019.

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The price has already crossed the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, shifting the market mood to growth. The Marlin oscillator is a little late. As a leading indicator, it is still in the negative zone. But this has its own sign - if the price hits the target range of 1.3350/80, especially if this growth turns out to be fast, the oscillator will be able to form a reversal divergence with the price.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 16, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair fell by 48 points last Friday, breaking the support of the embedded price channel line (104.75) on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator has penetrated the negative trend zone, the nearest target at 104.05 (October 29 low) is just ahead, followed by the second target of 103.18 – November 6 low.

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The price currently lies on two indicator lines on the four-hour chart – the MACD line and the balance line. In fact, the price is stuck between the daily price channel line (104.75) and the indicator lines.

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This creates the probability that the price would go above the resistance, reaching the MACD line on the daily timeframe, near the 105.14 level. Subsequently, however, the price is most likely to fall with an attempt to take 104.05.

If a short-term reversal from the MACD line does not take place, the price will immediately go to the first goal. Depending on external circumstances, the price will either continue to fall to the second goal of 103.18, or will hesitate in correcting from the level of the first goal.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 16. COT report. Analysis and recommendations

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair failed to overcome the upward trend line on Friday, November 13 and rebounded off it, thus maintaining the upward trend. The bulls managed to keep the initiative in their hands, which means that the absolutely illogical, from a fundamental point of view, upward movement may continue for some time. The nearest barrier from above is the Kijun-sen line. If buyers manage to pass then the upward movement will remain present. At the same time, take note of the fact that the British pound's current positions are extremely high and practically unfounded. Therefore, we are still waiting for a downward movement. The price could not move far from the trend line on Friday, so it is absolutely possible to test this line. And on the second attempt, the price can still overcome it. Only the news of the signing of a trade agreement between the UK and the European Union can prolong the sweet life of the pound. However, so far there are no prerequisites for this.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, so there are signs of bringing back the upward movement on the hourly timeframe. In the next couple of days, buyers need to keep the pair above the trend line and it is desirable to overcome the critical Kijun-sen line, as the bears will make new attempts to form a new downward trend.

COT report

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The GBP/USD pair increased by 250 points in the last reporting week (November 3-9). It is not surprising that the pound strengthened, since the US presidential election was held during this period, and the dollar was declining against its main competitors. However, the pound began to grow after this period. In general, the pound has been growing recently. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports does not really provide any useful information. Non-commercial traders closed 3,300 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,100 Sell-contracts (shorts). Therefore, they became more bearish, and the net position decreased by 4,400, which is not so small for the pound. Recall that the "non-commercial" group opened a total number of 87,000 contracts. Thus, 4,400 is 5%. As for the general trend among professional traders, the indicators in the chart clearly show that there is no trend at this time. The green line (net position of non-commercial traders) on the first indicator constantly changes its direction. The second indicator also shows the absence of a trend, as professional traders increase the net position, then reduce it. Thus, no long-term conclusions or forecasts can still be made based on the COT report. We recommend paying more attention to technique and foundation.

The fundamental background for the British pound was completely empty last Friday. No important news on that day. Therefore, traders simply had nothing to react to. There is still no information on the topic of the British-European talks. And even the topic of the US presidential election is slowly receding into the second or third plan. Donald Trump has not done anything that he promised to do. He still does not recognize Joe Biden's victory in the election (meaning a fair victory) and continues to insist that the Democrats rigged the election. However, no evidence has been provided for public viewing. Just like charges against China, impeachment charges, and many other cases. Also, Trump recently promised to provide new information from the intelligence services regarding fraud, but this has also not been done so far. Thus, there will most likely be no high-profile legal proceedings. The Trump team has filed numerous lawsuits, but it is not enough to just review the results in just one or two states. In general, Trump lost and now the only concern is whether he will hand over the reins of government of the country in a peaceful way and without a new war with the Democrats or not.

No major events in the UK scheduled for Monday. Therefore, the volatility of the pound/dollar pair may remain quite weak. However, market participants will continue to wait for information from the Brexit negotiations, which are ongoing in London. However, there is little hope that positive information will be received on Monday. However, the next round of negotiations will end sooner or later, so we can only wait.

We have two trading ideas for November 16:

1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair kept the initiative in their hands. Thus, we recommend buying the pair while aiming for the resistance levels of 1.3266 and 1.3382, if the bulls also manage to overcome the critical line of the Kijun-sen (1.3208). Take Profit in this case will be from 40 to 160 points.

2) Sellers could not pull down the pair below the trend line, so they are still out of work. If the price settles below the trend line, the trend will change to a downward trend and you can sell the pound/dollar pair while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.3064) and the support area of 1.3004-1.3024. Take Profit in this case can range from 60 to 100 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 16. COT report. Analysis and recommendations

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair continued to adjust on the hourly timeframe on November 13, and it reached the Kijun-sen line by the end of the day. Thus, the upward trend within the 1.1700-1.1900 horizontal channel is still present, as is the horizontal channel itself. Take note that the pair's quotes have been trading in between the levels of 1.1700 and 1.1900 for more than three months and only occasionally leave it for a short time. Short-term trends are formed within the channel from time to time. Traders do not have a trend line or a trend channel at their disposal at the moment. We make a conclusion about the upward trend solely based on the price rebounding from the Senkou span B line, which is a strong support. However, we can also conclude that the price is on a downward trend, since the price bounced from the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912 earlier, failing to gain a foothold higher once again. Thus, it is best to trade on the rebound or once important lines of the Ichimoku indicator or important levels have been overcome. For example, the price rebounding from a critical line can trigger a round of downward movement, no matter what the current trend is.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe. Not breaking the Senkou Span B line made it possible for traders to bring back the upward trend in the short term. However, the Kijun-sen line can stop this trend. Thus, the pair could move up to 1.1886-1.1912, but only if it overcomes the Kijun-sen line.

COT report

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The EUR/USD pair increased by 170 points in the last reporting week (November 3-9). The US presidential elections provoked a rather strong drop in the US currency, however, it lasted no more than a few days. Nevertheless, the euro rose in price, and market participants can expect that professional traders are leaning towards being bullish. However, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that the mood of large traders has become more bearish. The net position of the "non-commercial" group of traders decreased again, this time by 17,000 contracts, which is quite a lot. Recall that non-commercial traders have been reducing their net position for several consecutive weeks, which is eloquently signaled by the lower indicator in the chart. A decrease in the net position, in fact, means that Buy-contracts (longs) are closed and Sell-contracts (shorts) are opened. The first professional traders closed 9,200 during the reporting week, and the second - opened 7,800. However, despite the fact that the net position of non-commercial traders has been falling since the beginning of September, the downward trend has still not started for the EUR/USD pair. The green and red lines on the first indicator continue to move towards each other, which means that the trend has already begun long ago. However, there is actually no downward movement in the long term. Therefore, based on the latest COT report, we can say the following: our forecasts remain the same, since the report data allows only such conclusions to be drawn. We still believe that the upward trend has ended at around 1.2000.

There were a lot of macroeconomic statistics on Friday, November 13, but the euro/dollar pair was very sluggish for most of the day and so it ended the day with low volatility of around 40 points. Thus, in almost any case, traders ignored all of the reports. However, after analyzing it, we can still draw certain conclusions. For example, inflation in Germany remained at a negative level of -0.2% y/y. This means that the situation remains unchanged and it will be extremely difficult for the German economy to expect net growth in the near future, rather than to recover from the fall in the second quarter. Moreover, a new lockdown may lead to a new drop in GDP. The US inflation report also showed a deterioration, as it fell from 1.4% y/y to 1.2% y/y. Inflation, excluding food and energy, also declined. And so the dollar did not receive support during the day. The speeches of Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde did not provide any new information to the markets.

No important macroeconomic reports for the European Union and the United States on Monday, November 16. Therefore, volatility could remain at a low level. The general fundamental background now also does not contribute to active trading. Traders will only have to rely on technical analysis on Monday.

We have two trading ideas for November 16:

1) Buyers kept the pair above the Senkou Span B line (1.1760), but now they need to go beyond the Kijun-sen line (1.1833) in order to expect another 70 points to rise. If the price settles above this line, then you are advised to open long positions while aiming for the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1912. Take Profit in this case will be about 40-50 points.

2) Bears started their trend, however, they stumbled upon a serious obstacle near the Senkou Span B line (1.1760). Thus, in order to be able to resume trading down while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.1760) and the support area of 1.1692-1.1699,it is necessary for the price to rebound from the Kijun-sen line (1.1833). Take Profit in this case can range from 50 to 110 points.

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 16. A high-profile resignation in the British Parliament. New "coronavirus" anti-record.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -7.7734

The British pound sterling against the US dollar continues to trade very ugly from a technical point of view. In the last couple of months, the pair have regularly crossed the moving average line. However, this is not a problem. The problem is that the trend does not change after overcoming the moving average and the pair returns to its main movement. Thus, trading the pound/dollar pair has been very difficult recently. And this is only a graphical picture that constantly displays pullbacks that lead to consolidation below the moving average (the trend in recent weeks is upward). If we also remember the fundamental component. We have repeatedly said that we do not see any reasons for the strengthening of the British pound. The fundamental background in the UK is now so bad that it is the pound sterling that should fall, not the dollar. Moreover, the presidential elections were held in the United States, which means that the uncertainty factor has been exhausted. Markets should have calmed down and stopped getting rid of the US currency. However, this has not happened at the moment. And if you add here the COT reports, which in recent weeks show complete uncertainty with the mood of professional traders, it becomes obvious that the pound/dollar pair is now trading very unconventionally, so it is extremely difficult to predict its behavior even for the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, there was a resounding reshuffle in the British Parliament. Dominic Cummings has resigned as chief adviser to Boris Johnson. Cummings is called the "architect of Brexit", largely thanks to him in 2016, the British voted "for" leaving the EU. It is believed that the author of the most "cool" and "loud" steps of Boris Johnson is Cummings. Last year, when Boris Johnson excluded anyone from the Conservative party who did not support a "hard" Brexit (even before the dissolution of Parliament and the election), many believe that Cummings is responsible for this. At the same time, the deadline set for negotiations on the Brexit deal is coming to an end. And it is at this difficult moment, when London needs a strong government more than ever, that another high-profile resignation occurs, of which there was a lot under the government of Boris Johnson. We can not say that this news is "black" for the pound, but this is another portion of the negative. Especially now, when, in fact, the next deadline for negotiations, which was set by Johnson himself, has passed. We received no news about progress in the negotiations at all. The UK is just going with the flow and hoping for an acceptable result.

Meanwhile, the COVID-2019 epidemic continues to rage in the Foggy Albion. In the past few days, the number of daily reported cases has jumped to 30,000, and death rates have also increased significantly. That is, we can already say that the "hard" quarantine of Boris Johnson, which many doctors and politicians scold for being too soft, does not work. Johnson, like his American counterpart who lost the recent election, Donald Trump, is an adherent of the view that the economy should work even during a pandemic. Otherwise, the damage to the population and the country will be even worse than from the epidemic itself. However, as practice shows, in the UK and the US, the economy is working, but this only leads to new cases of infection and new deaths. Many believe that it was Trump's disregard for the "coronavirus" that cost him a second term. Boris Johnson may also soon follow his American friend into retirement. Especially if an agreement with Brussels on a trade deal still fails. And now everything is going to fail. At least none of the parties gave any signals that there is progress.

Well, we have already talked about the problems of the UK economy a million times. In short, the economy lost a lot in 2020. At the end of this year, it may return to decline and contraction, and 2021 may be a new shock for British businesses, citizens, and the economy itself. Because, in addition to the still unresolved problems with the pandemic and recovery, trade with the EU under WTO rules will also be added to the problems, which will inevitably cause a new reduction in GDP. And even if the agreement is signed, it will only mitigate the negative consequences of the "divorce" with the European Union. Overall, the outlook for the British economy remains extremely dim. And the Bank of England, therefore, will be forced to resort to negative rates. And negative rates are an extra "dovish" move that will inevitably lead to a fall in the British currency. This is how things are in the Kingdom a month and a half before the new year and a month and a half before the country's independence from the European Union.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 110 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Monday, November 16, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3078 and 1.3298. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3123

S2 – 1.3062

S3 – 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3184

R2 – 1.3245

R3 – 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is trying to return to the upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to keep open long positions with targets of 1.3245 and 1.3298 until the new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to trade the pair down with the targets of 1.3078 and 1.3000 if the price is again fixed below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 16. The European and American economies continue to be very "sick". Jerome Powell

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 39.9564

The last trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair was in an upward movement. However, this is only in the short term. In the long term, the sideways trend remains, which traders failed to break in 3 months. At the moment, the pair's quotes are once again fixed above the moving average line, which means that traders can expect an upward movement to the upper border of the 1.1900 side channel. However, we once again draw the attention of traders to the fact that in the last three months the pair has been trading, by and large, in the flat. And this point should be taken into account when opening any positions. Even such important topics as "presidential elections in the USA", "coronavirus in the EU and the USA", "absence of a stimulus package in the USA", as well as an outright political crisis in America failed to contribute to the exit of quotes from the flat. There is still a situation in which traders are afraid of new large purchases of the European currency, which has already risen by 10-13 cents against the dollar in the last 6-7 months. And the bears do not find any reason to buy the US currency, although now it seems that the tension that has persisted recently due to the elections should have subsided.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump, in a manner unique to him, admitted that Joe Biden won the election. Through his favorite Twitter, Trump wrote that "the election was rigged and only thanks to this Biden won". This message was immediately marked as "questionable" by the social network itself, which regularly does this with the tweets of the US President. At the same time, he does this quite rightly, because the current President continues to make absolutely unfounded statements and accusations. As a mantra, Trump continues to repeat that GOP observers were not allowed to enter many polling stations, and ballots with votes for Joe Biden continued to arrive after November 4 and should not have been counted in any case. However, even such a simple statement is smashed to smithereens by simple logic. If ballots continued to arrive after November 4 and were taken into account by election commissions, why did no one try to hide or disguise this? If it's illegal. If it's legal, why does Trump say it's a fraud? In general, the more Trump makes such statements, the more the whole world is convinced that he lost the election and is now just engaged in "waving his fists after a fight". Joe Biden was congratulated by almost all world leaders, thus recognizing the victory of the Democrat in the elections and the elections themselves.

But don't forget about the economy, either. Unfortunately, recent economic news has been closely shadowed by political and epidemiological news. This applies to both the European Union and America. With America, everything is clear, with what has long been. The government of the country refused to fight the epidemic using quarantines and "lockdowns". Therefore, the United States remains in first place in the world in the number of cases and deaths from COVID-2019. However, it is precisely because the economy continues to function that it also continues to recover. However, it is quite difficult to estimate the pace of its recovery. After all, there were serious GDP losses in the second quarter and strong growth in the third. But if you add both values for the second and third quarters together, it becomes clear that the final contraction of the economy is still present and it is quite large. For example, it is much lower in the European Union. Thus, the American economy, starting from the third quarter, may be recovering faster than the European economy, but the European economy lost three times less GDP in the second quarter. We believe that the lack of strengthening of the US dollar in the last three months, when even technical factors that require correction spoke in favor of this, most eloquently shows the state of the US economy at this time.

It is also quite difficult to compare the American and European economies. At least because Europe has a full-fledged "lockdown", so the economy will experience problems in November and December in any case. If the "hard" quarantine was completely painless, it would be introduced all over the world. However, this is an extreme and very drastic measure. Even last week's speeches by Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell confirmed that neither regulator is optimistic. Both heads of the Central Bank noted that the creation of an effective vaccine is very good, but both economies continue to be under pressure, require incentives, and vaccination should become publicly available so that the negative impact on the economy due to the "coronavirus" completely disappears. Lagarde notes that the European economy is recovering unsteadily, with "jumps" and "jerks". The head of the ECB also fears a full-scale recession due to a repeated "lockdown". According to her, households may become more fearful of the future and increase their savings instead of investing them and putting them into business, so many credit firms may cease to exist.

But Jerome Powell said he was very concerned about the fate of women, children, and business owners who face the long-term consequences of the "coronavirus crisis". According to Powell, children do not get enough education as a result of the crisis, women drop out of the labor market (not by their own will), and workers lose their jobs and their standard of living. Powell also noted that the economy is recovering, but will never return to its pre-crisis form. The economy is becoming more technological, less dependent on workers. Accordingly, despite the recovery of the labor market, a full recovery to pre-crisis levels may not occur. Many companies and industries try to replace human labor with automation as much as possible. Also, Powell once again noted that about 11 million Americans remain unemployed and they need the support of the government, which is still unable to agree on a new package of stimulus measures that includes assistance to the unemployed and businesses. "My main conclusion is that even after the unemployment rate drops and the vaccine is available, a significant group of workers will still need support until they find their place in a post-pandemic environment," Powell concluded.

Thus, both the European and American economies continue to be very "sick" and, despite the creation of a vaccine, recovery is still very far away. We still expect the upward trend to end around the 1.2000 level and the US currency should adjust properly. However, remember that any fundamental hypothesis must be confirmed by technical analysis.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 16 is 76 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1758 and 1.1910. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal a new round of downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1780

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1658

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1902

R3 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a new round of upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1.1841 and 1.1902 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with the first targets of 1.1758 and 1.1719.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com