NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 13, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

The quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, recent bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again. This was followed by another bearish breakout below 0.6750 which took place earlier on Wednesday.

Trade Recommendations:

Currently, the price zone 0.6750-0.6800 constitutes a demand zone to be defended by the NZD/USD bulls. Potential bullish targets would be located around 0.6900-0.6980.

Please be cautious if the current bearish decline extends below 0.6680 as this invalidates the previous bullish scenario.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 13, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by a bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1800 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Recent signs of bearish rejection around 1.1800 were already manifested on the chart. That's why, further bearish movement towards was anticipated towards 1.1650 initially. Next bearish target would be located around 1.1520.

Please note that any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will probably enhance further bullish advancement initially towards 1.1850 (low probability).

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Trading plan for the European session of GBP / USD pair on July 13

To open long positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers need to keep the support level at 1.3158, and the formation of a false breakout on it will be a good signal to open long positions in GBP / USD. The main task is to break through and consolidate above the resistance to 1.3185, from where the direct road to the highs of yesterday opens to the area of 1.3240, where fixing profits are recommended. In the event of a drop in the pound, you can go back to the rebounds from 1.3095 and 1.3050 to buy.

To open short positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

The formation of a false breakout at the resistance of 1.3185 or a breakdown and anchoring below the support of 1.3158, which will be a good signal for pound sales. This could lead to a larger sale while testing the level of 1.3129 and with the main purpose of updating a new low at 1.3095, where fixing profits are recommended. If GBP / USD rises in the first half of the day above 1.3185, you can sell for a rebound of 1.3240.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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USD/CAD analysis for July 13, 2018

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Recently, USD/CAD has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3200. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. Upward targets are set at the price of 1.3245 and at the price of 1.3300.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3200

R2: 1.3220

R3: 1.3245

Support levels:

S1: 1.3150

S2: 1.3135

S3: 1.3110

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for July 13, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,238.00. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a breakout of the bearish flag in the background, which is a sign of weakness. Gold is in the downward trend and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I found FE 100% at the price of $1,233.00 and FE 161.8% at the price of $1,223.55.

Resistance levels: R1: $1,249.45R2: $1,252.50R3: $1,256.75

Support levels: S1: $1,242.20S2: $1,238.20S3: $1,234.85

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Theresa May will announce plans for Brexit today

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The Prime Minister of Great Britain will announce on Thursday the plan for the country's exit from the European Union. Today, the document to be published today should shed light on the position of England in the obviously skidding negotiations on Brexit.

It is expected that it will outline measures to ensure unimpeded trade to protect "jobs and their means of livelihood". The desire for an "unrivaled partnership in the field of security" will also be discussed. At the same time, it will be emphasized that Britain reserves the control over borders, laws, and money.

"Leaving the European Union is a challenge and an opportunity. We need to respond to the challenge and understand the opportunities, "says the preface to the document prepared by the new Brexit minister, Dominic Raab, who was appointed on June 9.

It is this political background that currently keeps the GBP / USD pair below the level of 1.3300, despite the increase in forecasts to 0.25% by the Bank of England at a meeting on August 2.

Current market expectations for raising the rate are about 60%. The traders will get more clarity after the speech of the deputy head of the Central Bank of England, John Cunliffe on Friday at 11:00 GMT.

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The pound looks vulnerable. However, the American currency also does not promise bright movements. If today the US session does not update the lows that were fixed earlier this week between 1.3200 / 25, then the sterling may stabilize and eventually rise in price.

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Рынки в ожидании новых ориентиров

Еврозона

Объем промышленного производства в еврозоне вырос в мае на 1.3% относительно апреля, в годовом исчислении рост составил 2.4%, оба показателя заметно превысили ожидания экспертов.

Довольно сильные показатели оказались сюрпризом, поскольку с начала года наблюдается заметное замедление деловой активности, и темпы роста ВВП в еврозоне могут оказаться выше, чем прогнозировалось совсем недавно.

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Тем не менее евро вряд ли воспользуется неожиданным подарком. В среду, 18 июля, будет опубликован отчет по инфляции, который покажет, насколько уверенно может чувствовать себя ЕЦБ, к тому же нет никакой ясности относительно протекционистских планов Вашингтона. Объявленная было торговая война между США и Китаем может не получить развития - в четверг обе стороны осторожно начали выражать намерение все же провести переговоры. Соответственно, мощный драйвер в пользу укрепления доллара может потерять свою силу.

Глава ФРС Джером Пауэлл прокомментировал в четверг развитие ситуации по пошлинам, отметив, что в конечном итоге торговая война будет негативным фактором для экономики США. Министерство торговли отчиталось о заметном падении прямых иностранных инвестиций в США в 2017 г., снижение составило 32%, или 120 млрд долл.

EURUSD не имеет на текущий момент явного направления, торговля с высокой вероятностью продолжится в сформировавшемся диапазоне с тяготением к его нижней границе. Евро может снизиться к 1.1622 к вечеру пятницы, верхняя граница диапазона ограничена уровнем 1.1705.

Великобритания

Brexit совсем недавно стоил кабинету Терезы Мэй двух министров, поэтому рынки с удовлетворением восприняли новость о том, что правительство представит комплекс предложений к ЕС в виде «белой книги» - доклада о намерениях. Великобритания ищет способ свести негативные последствия Brexit к минимуму, и если предложения будут приняты Брюсселем, то это окажет положительное воздействие на котировки фунта.

Новый министр по делам Brexit Доминик Рааб, выступая перед Парламентом, заявил о том, что ожидает положительного ответа Брюсселя уже в ближайшем будущем. Переговоры явно затянулись, и если все пойдет по намеченному плану, фунт получит положительный импульс.

На следующей неделе будут опубликованы результаты июньской инфляции и данные по рынку труда за март - май. Прогнозы благоприятные, ожидается рост инфляции до 2.5% в годовом исчислении и сохранение положительной динамики на рынке труда. Эти ожидания основаны, в том числе, и на отчете NIESR, который отметил положительные изменения в экономике, хотя и признал, что они еще слишком слабы.

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Фунт находится под давлением, торговля в пятницу пройдет в боковом диапазоне со смещением к поддержке 1.3120 к концу дня.

Нефть и рубль

МЭА в очередном ежемесячном докладе охладила активность медведей, объявив, что рост производства в России и странах Персидского залива происходит во многом за счет подушки запасных мощностей, а в других странах признаков прироста добычи не наблюдается. Таким образом МЭА косвенно предупреждает, что предел добычи может быть достигнут очень быстро, а значит объективных причин для заметного снижения нефтяных цен нет.

На нефтяном рынке происходит серьезный передел. США оказывают значительное давление на своих союзников, вынуждая их отказаться от иранской нефти, в первую очередь это касается Японии и Южной Кореи. Всё больше разговоров о том, что ОПЕК в текущем виде может серьезно трансформироваться, и способствовать этому будут Россия и Саудовская Аравия, которые в сумме добывают нефти больше, чем все остальные участники соглашения.

Пока нужно исходить из того, что снижение котировок носит коррекционный характер и очень похоже на промежуточную фиксацию прибыли. Для Brent поддержка на уровне 72.40 остается сильной, торговля с высокой вероятностью продолжится выше этого уровня.

Рубль никак не отреагировал не недавнее падение нефти и будет, вероятнее всего, торговаться в текущем диапазоне. По итогам пятницы курс USDRUB может вырасти до 62.70.

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BITCOIN Analysis for July 13, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive after the break below the $6,500 price area with a daily close, where the bullish bias is still trying to push the price higher in the future. The pressing question is which way Bitcoin is heading next. Though the price has been expected to push higher after breaking above $6,500 recently, but the bearish bias leading the price below the area did confuse the market sentiment for a bit now. Though big investors are still holding it, but the effect cannot be observed in the market. As of the current scenario, the price is residing above the $6,000 area after having certain bearish rejection with yesterday's daily candle for which the price is expected to push higher towards the $6,500 area and later towards the $8,000 area as it remains above $6,000 with a daily close.

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Bitcoin analysis for July 13, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

Recently, Bitcoin has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $6.035. Anyway, according to the H1 time - frame, I found that agressive buyers entered the market, which is sign that selling looks risky. I also ofund a hidden bullish divergence on the macd oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities if you see a valid breakout of the bullish flag. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.315 and at the price of $6.385.

6.240 Intraday resistance; $6.035– Intraday support; $6.315 – Objective target 1 ; $6.385 - Objective target 2 ;

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Global macro overview for 13/07/2018

Thursday's session overseas ended with a significant increase in major indices - the SP500 rose by + 0.9% to reach its highest level since March, while Nasdaq saw an increase of + 1.3%, setting a new record as well. Good sentiment has spilled over to Asia - most of the indexes in the Asian part of the world gained about + 0.5%, with the exception of Japanese Nikkei, which increased its value by over + 1.9%.

Today in the US, the second-quarter results seasons will start. As the first, traditionally their results will be published by American banks, namely Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Current forecasts for the annual growth of profits of companies belonging to the SP500 index oscillate around 20%. However, based on the experience from the previous result season, it can be expected that investors will particularly focus on the projections of future performance presented by companies. However, it can not be ruled out that these projections will no longer be as impressive as the current dynamics of profits and revenues presented. Undoubtedly, risk factors that in the following months could well thwart the ambitious plans of American enterprises are not lacking. Among them, it is natural to mention the effects of a trade war, which sooner or later may hit US companies, including the technology sector. It is also worth noting that the fiscal stimulus, which, incidentally, prolonged the expansionary phase of the business cycle in the US, according to some calculations, may positively affect the presented dynamics of corporate profits for the third and fourth quarters - after this period, additional fuel disperasing the American economy will most likely be depleted.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is about to break out higher towards the level of 28062 resistance. If this level is broken, then the bulls might extend the rally towards the level of 286.58, which is an all-time high. The strong and positive momentum supports the bullish outlook and market conditions are currently neutral, so there is a room for more upside in the nearest future. The immediate support is seen at the level of 277.51.

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Global macro analysis for 13/07/2108

The overnight data on China's June trade balance showed a higher surplus (as a result of weaker imports), but the report did not shake the market. It is easy to discuss whether, when President Trump receives a note with this data, he will not be led to an acute tweet in which he will accuse China of unfair exchange of goods with the US. For now, however, Trump visits Great Britain and "mixes" London's relations with Brussels. In an interview with The Sun, he said that Prime Minister Mayor ignored his advice and headed for the soft Brexit, which, however, reduces the chances of lucrative trade agreements with the US. He also noted that he highly values Boris Johnson, who would prove himself as a great leader. These words scratch the wounds of the shock caused by the government's shuffles earlier this week and GBP is losing ground. Yesterday, the publication of the so-called White Document, in which the new Brexit plan was laid out, did not make the difference at all. First of all, the approach to financial services is criticized, where the proposals are strict with a view to the grace of Brussels. It is difficult to be a strong promoter of the pound now, even if in the longer horizon the materialization of the soft Brexit will pull the GBP strongly up.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the 61% Fibo retracement nad currently is heading lower towards the intraday support at the level of 1.3094. This level is just slightly above the technical support zone at 1.3067 - 1.3049. Please notice the oversold market conditions and weak momentum, which might result in a temporary pull-back higer towards the level of 1.3191 soon.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USD/JPY for July 13, 2018

The USD/JPY is challenging important long-term resistance. The weekly close will be very important. The USD/JPY is challenging the long-term resistance trend line coming from 125.60 back in 2015, that has already been tested 6 times the past years and got rejected.

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Blue line - long-term resistance

Red line - long-term support

The USD/JPY is also challenging weekly cloud resistance here at 112.60-112.70 area. Will the USD/JPY break above this huge triangle pattern? At current levels, traders should better be patient and neutral than chase long positions in USD/JPY.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for July 13, 2018

The Gold price remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. The Gold price is above the $1,240-37 support area and below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4hour chart. As long as Gold is below $1,252 we should expect more downside. Prices are oversold though at current levels and I will not be looking to chase short positions.

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Blue lines - Pitchfork

Upward sloping blue line - RSI support trend line

The Gold price is below the 4-hour Kumo. Support is at $1,240 and next at $1,235. Resistance is at $1,250 and at $1,253. Above this level, we should expect Gold to push towards $1,260 and next towards $1,272. A break below $1,235-40 area will open the way for a push lower towards $1,220-$1,200.

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Bitcoin analysis for 13/07/2018

US President Donald Trump has signed an enforcement order by creating a task force that will focus in part on the development of guidelines for investigations into cryptocurrency fraud.

The Task Force on Market Integrity and Consumer Fraud, in line with the executive order, will take a broad perspective when focusing on consumer fraud. For the cryptographic industry, it is worth mentioning the "digital currency fraud", which is one of many areas where the task force "will provide guidance in investigating and prosecuting cases involving fraud."

It is unclear what form the guidelines will adopt, but the task force can ultimately present a kind of report for the Trump administration in this area.

The fact that the administration has taken action in this direction is not surprising. Earlier this year, the US government indicated that it is working on a comprehensive cryptocurrency strategy focusing on market scams. In February, the United States Department of Justice set up a Task Force for Cybersecurity, which also includes cryptocurrencies as part of its mandate. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein said at that time:

#Many of these programs involve Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that do not flow through the traditional financial system. [...] What we are currently working on with our Cybercrime Task Force is working on a comprehensive strategy that will deal with it".

This is a very good news for all the crypto enthusiasts are we are all familiar with plenty of crime incidents in the crypto world like identity theft, wallet phishing, and exchange hacking. The new US program should help to resolve and limit the amount of the incident and make all the traders fell a little bit more secure.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market reacted at the weekly pivot support at the level of $6,054 and made a Pin Bar candle twice as the bulls were defending this level. Currently, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $6,334 and the bulls must break through this level if they want to regain the control over the market. The key technical support is seen at the level of $5,742.

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Trading plan for 13/07/2018

Friday starts with a calm, sleepy trade on the financial markets because fears about trade wars are still present, but the lack of escalation inhibits possible panic. GBP / USD reaches 1.3170 after the Sun article, according to which President Trump believes that Prime Minister May have ignored his advice and is moving towards a soft Brexit, which, however, reduces the chances of lucrative trade deals with the US. The rest of the FX was relatively calm. EUR / USD drifts close to 1.1660. USD / JPY managed to reach 112.75. The strongest is AUD, where recovery is fueled by the lack of signs of the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China. AUD / USD is already over 0.7410.

The Chinese foreign trade data showed strong surplus growth in June to USD 41.6 billion (exp. 27.7 billion; 24.2 billion prior) with a clear slowdown in imports (14.1% YoY, vs. 26%). Exports improved better: 11.2%, prog. 9.5%.On the stock market, the Japanese Nikkei225 followed the rise on Wall Street on Thursday and today gains 2.1%, but the Shanghai stock exchange cannot get rid of fears about the effects of trade wars and Shanghai Composite loses 0.4%.

On Friday the 13th of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on the German Wholesale Price Index data, Swiss Producer & Import Prices data and UoM Consumer Sentiment and UoM Inflation Expectations. There are two speeches scheduled for today: first from BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe and second from FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic.

USD/CAD analysis for 13/07/2018:

The Bank of Canada gave us a 25bp rate hike yesterday, a constructive statement, but at the conference President Poloz hit the doves, underlining concerns about the impact of trade tensions. We got an explosive mixture that brought a swing in CAD charts. It may take some time before investors lick out the wounds, but at the end, it is important that BoC remains in the group of those central banks that continue to tighten their policies. When the dust settles after the trade wars and we return to the valuation of foundations, CAD should gain.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the interest rate hike decision was made. The bulls did not manage to break out above the 50% Fibo and the price slowly reversed after hitting the level of 1.3220. The first technical support at the level of 1.3174 was broken and currently, the price is trading around the level of 1.3160. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3111, which is just above the swing low at 1.3066. Please notice the market conditions are overbought and the momentum is barely positive, so the chances for deeper pull-back towards the support level are increasing.

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Technical analysis of Ethereum for July 13, 2018

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At the 4-hour chart, we can see the Ethereum moving in a Bearish bias. Besides the price is now moving below the Moving Average 21 period and the slope is pointing down, the price already made a few Bearish chart patterns, for now, it seems the Ethereum will try to break out below the Rectangle pattern, as long as the Ethereum does not break out and close above the 491.35 most of the time it is likely it will continue its previous Bearish bias.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 13, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair at 4-hour charts still moving in a Bearish bias. This condition is already seen by the price making higher low - lower low and making a few continuation Bearish chart patterns such as Bearish Flag, Bearish Pennant Flag and Broadening Up Channel. This pattern indicated the upper correction is weak and is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator already turning back from the Overbought level. So in next few hours as long as this pair does not break out and close above the 0.6855 it will continue its Bearish bias.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 13, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as ... . The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Import Prices m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1720.

Strong Resistance:1.1713.

Original Resistance: 1.1702.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1691.

Target Inner Area: 1.1663.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1635.

Original Support: 1.1624.

Strong Support: 1.1613.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1606.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 13, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Import Prices m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.25.

Resistance. 2: 113.02.

Resistance. 1: 112.81.

Support. 1: 112.54.

Support. 2: 112.32.

Support. 3: 112.10.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for July 13, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index is seen to be trading around the potential resistance zone at the 94.80/95.00 levels. Also please note the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance passing through the 94.85 levels as depicted here. A bearish turn seems to be the high probable move from here, bottom line prices should remain below the 95.50 levels for now. Also note that the US Dollar Index might be working on wave (4) of a higher degree and until prices stay above the 91/92 levels, the count remains valid. For now, bears should be back in control from around these levels and continue to drag prices below 93.80 at least. On the flip side, if resistance at 95.50 is taken off, it would mean that bulls are targeting the 98.00 levels before taking a meaningful correction.

Trading plan:

Remain short from here, stop above 95.50, target at 93.00.

Fundamental Outlook:

Watch out for USD U. Michigan at 1000 AM EST, followed by Fed Monetary Policy to Congress at 1100 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 13, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair formed a bottom around the 1.1650 levels yesterday, a few pips higher than what we expected and discussed yesterday. According to the Elliott Channel, it bounced from support and also a Fibonacci ratio as seen here. A high probable direction from here should be on the north side, above the 1.1850 levels. On the flip side, an alternate low at 1.1630 cannot be ruled out before the markets reverse higher. Price support remains at the levels of 1.1590 and 1.1530 respectively, while interim resistance is seen at 1.1790. Please note that the currency pair is into its probable wave 4 at a higher degree and until prices stay below the 1.2150 levels, the count remains valid. A break above 1.2150 would indicate further delays in the expected drop.

Trading plan:

Remain long with stop below the 1.1550/30 levels with the target of at least 1.1950

Fundamental outlook:

USD U. Michigan sentiment is due at 1000 AM EST and Fed Monetary Policy release to Congress is at 1100 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for July 13, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which lead the price to push off the 81.50 support area to residing at the edge of the 83.50-84.50 resistance area. Despite the recent positive economic reports, JPY failed to gain momentum against AUD which does indicate the strength of AUD in the process.

Recently, JPY Bank Lending has increased to 2.2% from the previous value of 2.0% and Current Account has exceeded expectations with the rate of 1.85T which was expected to be at 1.18T. Moreover, PPI was also published with an increase to 2.8% as expected from the previous value of 2.7%. Today, JPY Revised Industrial Production report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at -0.2%.

On the other hand, recently, AUD MI Inflation Expectation report has been published with a decrease to 3.9% from the previous value of 4.2%. The worse economic report did not quite impact the gains of AUD in the process leading to higher grounds.

As of the current scenario, AUD is expected to gain further momentum in the process until any negative report of AUD or better than expected JPY economic report consistently unfolds in the coming days. To sum up, AUD is expected to gain further against JPY in the process.

Now let us look at the technical side. The price is currently residing at the edge of the 83.50-84.50 resistance area from where it is expected to reject bulls with certain bearish pressure to push the price lower in the process. The pair has been ranging between 80.50 to 84.50 since March 2018 and until a daily break above or below the area occurs, no definite pressure on trend is expected and the range is expected to continue further. As the price remains below the 83.50-84.50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for July 13, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite bearish with the momentum recently which suddenly got certain bullish pressure yesterday which is expected to lead to a short-term retracement towards the 0.68-0.69 area in the coming days.

NZD has been quite positive with the recent economic report of FPI increasing from 0.0% to 0.5% which helped the currency to gain momentum against USD in the process. Though USD has been struggling to sustain the momentum due to the recent worse NFP report and ongoing Trade Wars.

On the USD side, the recent published high impact economic reports were quite mixed and were not enough to support the sustainability of the bearish pressure in the pair. Today, USD Import Price report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.6%, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to slightly decrease to 98.1 from the previous figure of 98.2 and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations report is at 3.0% where no forecast has been made on this so far.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to lose momentum due to worse economic forecasts and if the actual follows the expectation then USD is expected to lose some more grounds against NZD in the process, but the weakness is expected to be quite short-term as next week, certain high impact reports of USD like Retail Sales are going to be published.

Now let us look at the technical side. The price has been quite volatile with the bearish pressure recently which did lead to break below 0.68 with a daily close. As of the recent Bullish Divergence in place, the price has already reacted to it well and is expected to push again towards the resistance area of 0.68-0.69 before showing further bearish pressure in the future. As the price remains below the 0.68-0.69 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Daily EUR / USD review for July 12, 18. Ichimoku Indicator

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EUR / USD

Players on the rise reach the resistance zone of 1.1752-76 (the lower boundary of the day cloud + weekly levels), which seems difficult to overcome. As a result, we observe the formation of a weekly rebound from the Tenkan level 1.1752. If the pair can close the current week below supports 1.1680 (day cross) and 1.1648-39 (month Senkou Span A + day Fibo Kijun), then we can expect the preservation of sentiment and their strengthening. In this case, the main task for the players to decline is to update the minimum extremum (1.1508).

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Together with the testing of resistances in the area of 1.1752-76, the target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud was already completed. As a result, the decline turned out to be deep enough, and now the pair tests again the strength of consolidation supports in the high-time levels (day cross 1,1680) and important lines from H4 and H1 (target for breakdown of the cloud H1 1.1672 + cloud H4 1.1670 ). If the players on the rise now keep the situation under control, we can expect an upswing (important resistance 1,1700-20) and a new attempt to go beyond 1.1776. The supports that should be noted are the levels 1.1639-48, the consolidation below will allow to pierce the H4 cloud and form a new downside target.

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. July, 12. Traders persistently believe that the trade war will benefit the US

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 70p - 88p - 58p - 73p - 92p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 76p (68p).

The EUR/USD currency pair fell down in the second half of last day. There were no significant reasons for this since no new reports from Trump or important macroeconomic reports were available to traders. Nevertheless, it seems that traders decided to return in buying the US dollar, despite the fact that the US president is doing everything to lower the investment attractiveness of the States in the eyes of international investors. A new package of sanctions against China for a total of $ 200 billion can be introduced after 2 months. During this time, Trump will wait for a response. If China introduces reciprocal trade duties, the US leader will prepare a new package of trade restrictions. There is also the option that the parties will still sit at the negotiating table, but now it seems extremely unlikely.

Yesterday ECB President Mario Draghi also delivered a speech. However, in his speech, he did not touch upon the issues of monetary policy, so there was no special reaction from traders. Thus, the main and almost the only topic that now worries traders is the trade war between the States and partners. And the most interesting thing is that market participants still believe that the trade conflict is in the hands of the United States. At least, this is very eloquently displayed on the chart movement of the major currency pair. Of course, we can say that the reasons for the growth of the dollar are the weakness of the EU economy. However, the EU economy has been in a more deplorable state for many years than the US economy. Based on this, we can conclude that the reason lies not in this. Technically, the volatility of the pair rose to 90 points yesterday, a new "dead cross" was formed. The goal of the previous day was perfectly worked out.

Trading recommendations:

For the EUR / USD pair, the correction turned into a downward movement. Thus, now it is recommended to consider shorts for the purpose of 1.1633. The signal to manually close positions will be the upward turn of the MACD indicator.

It is recommended to open purchase orders with small intraday lots if the MACD indicator turns up. In this case, the goal will be the critical Kijun-sen line. There is still no question of resuming the upward trend.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 13, 2018

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Overview: The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6840 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement). This week (from 9 to 13 July 2018), the pair has dropped from the level of 0.6840 to trade around the 0.6775 level. This level of 0.6840 coincides with the major resistance today. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6840 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6840/0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6843, then this scenario may be invalidated.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 13, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 1.3276.

The GBP/USD pair is still moving below the daily major resistance of the 1.3276 level. It will probably continue to move downwards from the level of 1.3276 to the bottom around 1.3191. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3196 followed by 1.3276, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3068. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.3068. So it will be good to sell at 1.3068 with the first target of 1.2988. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.2919 in the coming hours. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.2919 level, which represents the double bottom on the H4 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3090 and 1.2919 in the coming two days. The price area of 1.3276 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.3276 is not broken. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.3196, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.3340.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for July 12. The pound rushed down after the euro

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart completed the rebound from the correction level of 161.8% - 1.3301 and a reversal in favor of the US dollar. As a result, the decline resumed in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% - 1.3047. Trading divergences on July 12 were not shown in any indicator. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 161.8% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the British currency and expect a certain increase in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% - 1.3530.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes from March 1, 2018 to April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair conducted a fixation first under the Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.3242, and then below 50.0% - 1.3206. Thus, the fall in quotations may continued towards the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.3169. On July 12, a maturing bullish divergence can be observe in the CCI indicator. Its formation will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in quotations. Fixing the pair above the correction level of 50.0% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of growth towards the Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.3242.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 22, 2018 and June 28, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of June 22, 2018 and June 28, 2018. New purchases of the GBP/USD pair can be made with targets of 1.3242 and 1.3289 and a Stop Loss order should be under the correction level of 1.3206 if there is a close above the Fibo level of 50.0% (hourly chart), especially in conjunction with the bullish divergence.

Selling the GBP/USD pair will be possible with targets 1.3169 and 1.3122 and a stop loss order above the correction level of 50.0% if a supposed breakthrough of the low-end divergence occurs.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The US will try to create a trade coalition against China

The US will try to create a trade coalition against China

Maneesha Singh, Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs and Entrepreneurship, said (according to TASS): "The key area in which allies and partners share our concerns is the response to the challenge of China's economic aggression. We are creating an international coalition to counter China's public policy, which distorts market conditions, prejudices international competition, forces technology transfer and allows theft of important intellectual property. "

At the moment, the US imposed customs duties on steel and aluminum against China, and on goods worth $ 34 billion,

China responded with duties on 34 billion dollars of goods from the US - agricultural products, cars, Boeing aircraft.

Trump in the "answer to the answer" promised to introduce duties on goods from China worth $ 200 billion, around the beginning of September. In addition, the US is ready to introduce (according to Trump) duties for another 200 billion goods from China, if China goes on retaliatory measures.

This will impose almost 10% duties on all imports of Chinese goods to the US, in the list for the first $ 200 billion is already a mass of consumer goods. This will undoubtedly affect inflation in the US.

China, according to media reports, is looking for answers of an indirect nature (asymmetric response measures).

Both sides do not call for negotiations yet. US officials say that the US economy does not feel the negative of the duties against China (US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin).

Speaking of a coalition against China, it is natural to recall the EU, Britain, and Japan. However, let us remember right away that the United States hit hard on the allies with duties on the same steel and aluminum, Germany is promised higher tariffs for the sale of cars in the US, besides the attempts by the US allies to reduce duties were rejected by Trump on the "Big Seven" in Canada directly in offensive form.

I do not think that the United States will find in Europe, Canada and Japan allies against China if simultaneously the US will wage war and against the allies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USD / JPY 12.07.18

The upward movement remains a medium-term impulse, which implies the search for favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument and the retention of part of the previous transactions. The closest growth target remains the NCP 1/2 112.64-112.53.

Yesterday's test of the NCP 1/4 110.85-110.80 allowed to open purchases. The first purpose of fixing a long position is the NCP 1/2 112.64-112.53. The second part of the position should be transferred to lossless and left in case of further growth to the weekly short-term fault of 113.76-113.56, which is within the monthly short-term fault of July. The test of the nearest resistance can lead to an increase in supply and the formation of a correctional model. This will once again buy the instrument in case of a fall to one of the control zones formed from the July maximum.

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The upward movement is so strong that it can break down and anchor above the NCP 1/2 without forming a deep correction. This model is not suitable for purchases, as it will have to be bought at unprofitable prices, and the risk-to-profit ratio will be unprofitable.

To obtain favorable prices for the purchase, a reduction in the exchange rate is required, so it is necessary to stop the course with the formation of the supply level. Sales to be considered from the NCP 1/2 112.64-112.53 is not recommended, however use the drop is necessary for purchases at more favorable prices. It is pointless to consider the option of reversal of the medium-term impulse, as conditions for this have not been created.analytics5b4705b469803.png


The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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US fees as an excuse to drop euro buyers

The US dollar has seriously strengthened its positions against the European currency and the British pound amid the tensions created by the effects of growing trade tensions between the US and China. Let me remind you that yesterday the White House announced new trade duties on a number of goods from China, which immediately provoked Beijing's response measures.

The data released on Wednesday in the afternoon, slightly affected the quotes of the US dollar.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, wholesale companies in the United States resumed their stocks at a faster rate in May. So, inventories in wholesale trade grew by 0.6% compared to the previous month, while economists expected that stocks would grow only by 0.5%. Sales in wholesale trade in May grew by 11.8% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The speech of the representative of the Federal Reserve Bank of Williams also did not affect the markets. He mainly talked about the use of borrowed funds in the US financial system, as well as the problems of American employers who are faced with the search for qualified specialists.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, going beyond the support level 1.1680 could seriously affect the further upside potential in the pair. An unsuccessful attempt to return to this range today will form a larger downward trend, which will lead to new lows of 1.1650 and 1.1590.

Quotes of oil fell sharply yesterday after news that Saudi Arabia unilaterally increased its oil production in June this year, without waiting for OPEC's main decision, as well as news about the resumption of oil exports from eastern ports of Libya, which could ease concerns about the deficit of the world supply.

It did not help black gold and a report from the US Department of Energy on stock reduction. According to the data, commercial oil reserves in the US for the week from June 30 to July 6 fell much more than analysts predicted.

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Thus, oil reserves fell by 12.6 million barrels, to 405.2 million barrels, while analysts assumed a decrease in reserves of 3.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventories declined by 700,000 barrels, to 239 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose 4.1 million barrels, to 121.7 million barrels. The loading of oil refining capacities decreased by 0.4 percentage points, to 96.7%, while economists expected that this index would decrease by 0.1 percentage points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of GOLD on July 12

The forecast for July 12:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:analytics5b46cd3a962be.png

For Gold, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1253.72, 1249.09, 1245.49, 1239.59, 1232.43 and 1227.55. Here, we follow the formation of a downward structure from July 9. The continued downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1239.30. In this case, the target is 1232.43 and near this level is the consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1227.55 (the probable date of reaching 13 - 14 July), upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1245.49 - 1249.09 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1253.72.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1245.50 Take profit: 1249.00

Buy: 1249.30 Take profit: 1253.70

Sell: 1239.20 Take profit: 1233.00

Sell: 1232.20 Take profit: 1227.90

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of July 12

Dear colleagues.

The currency pair EUR / USD continue to move downwards after the breakdown of 1.1652 and the level of 1.1712 is the key support. For Pound / Dollar pair, we expect the breakdown of 1.3190 for the subsequent development of the downward movement. For the pair Dollar / Franc, we expect the price to move to the level of 0.9986. For the pair Dollar / Yen, the continuation of the development of the upward structure from July 9, we expect after the breakdown of 112.38. For a pair of Euro / Yen, the price forms a local structure for the upward movement of July 11. For the Pound / Yen pair, we follow the formation of the local structure for the top of July 9th.

The forecast for July 12:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1738, 1.1712, 1.1694, 1.1652, 1.1613 and 1.1586. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of July 9. The continued downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1652. In this case, the target is 1.1613. The potential value for the downward movement is the level of 1.1586 (the probable date of reaching (July 12 - 13)), from this level we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.1694-1.1712 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1738 and this level is the key support for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1694 Take profit: 1.1710

Buy 1.1714 Take profit: 1.1735

Sell: 1.1650 Take profit: 1.1620

Sell: 1.1610 Take profit: 1.1590

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For the Pound / Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3329, 1.3297, 1.3274, 1.3192, 1.3155, 1.3131 and 1.3069. Here, the price forms the potential for the downward movement from July 9 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.3192. In this case, the target is 1.3155 and in the corridor of 1.3155 - 1.3131 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3069 (the probable date of reaching 12 - 13 July), upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback upward.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.3274 - 1.3297 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3329 and this level is the key support for the downward structure from July 9.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure from July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3274 Take profit: 1.3295

Buy: 1.3298 Take profit: 1.3326

Sell: 1.3190 Take profit: 1.3160

Sell: 1.3153 Take profit: 1.3133

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For the Dollar / Franc pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.0031, 1.0005, 0.9986, 0.9947, 0.9933, 0.9911 and 0.9893. Here, we follow the development of the upward structure of July 9. At the moment, we expect the move to 0.9986, upon reaching which we expect short-term upward movement in the corridor of 0.9986 - 1.0005. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.0031 (the probable date of reaching 12 - 13 July), upon reaching this level we expect a pullback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9947 - 0.9933 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9911 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have a downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.9893.

The main trend is the upward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9956 Take profit: 0.9984

Buy: 0.9988 Take profit: 1.0003

Sell: 0.9945 Take profit: 0.9935

Sell: 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9914

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For the pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on a scale of H1 are: 113.40 - 112.93, 112.73, 112.36, 111.95, 111.71, 111.39 and 111.12. Here, the price we follow the upward structure of July 9. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 112.36. In this case, the target is 112.73 and in the corridor of 112.73 - 112.93 is the consolidation. Hence, there is a high probability of a pullback downwards. The potential value for the top is the level of 113.40 (the probable date of reaching 13-14 July).

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 111.95 - 111.71 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 111.39 and the range of 111.39 - 111.12 is the key support for the top. Before it, we expect a local structure for the downward movement.

The main trend: the upward structure of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.38 Take profit: 112.70

Buy: 112.95 Take profit: 113.40

Sell: 111.95 Take profit: 111.73

Sell: 111.68 Take profit: 111.40

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For the Canadian Dollar / Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3384, 1.3247, 1.3193, 1.3071, 1.3025 and 1.2938. Here, the situation is in an equilibrium state. The short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor of 1.3193 - 1.3247 and the breakdown of the last value should lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 1.3384.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 1.3071 - 1.3025 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a potential for downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2938.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3250 Take profit: 1.3380

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.3025 Take profit: 1.2940

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Australian Dollar / Dollar pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7434, 0.7410, 0.7386, 0.7355, 0.7341, 0.7318 and 0.7281. Here, we follow a small downward cycle from July 9th. The continued downward movement is expected after passing through the noise range of 0.7355 - 0.7341. In this case, the target is 0.7318. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7281 (the probable date of reaching July 13)

The short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor of 0.7386 - 0.7410 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7434 and the breakdown of this value will have to develop an ascending structure, here the potential target is 0.7483.

The main trend is the downward cycle from July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7386 Take profit: 0.7408

Buy: 0.7411 Take profit: 0.7432

Sell: 0.7340 Take profit: 0.7320

Sell: 0.7316 Take profit: 0.7284

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For the pair of Euro / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 132.38, 131.95, 131.20, 130.64, 129.90, 128.80, 128.34, 127.74 and 127.06. Here, the price has issued a local structure for the top of 11 July. In the corridor of 130.64 - 131.20, we expect short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 132.38, after which we expect consolidated movement in the corridor of 131.95 - 132.38.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 130.00 - 129.63 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 129.19 and this level is the key support for the upward structure from June 28. Its breakdown will have to move up to the potential target of 128.42.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 28, the local structure for the top of July 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 131.20 Take profit: 131.90

Buy: 132.00 Take profit: 132.35

Sell: 130.00 Take profit: 129.65

Sell: 129.60 Take profit: 129.20

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For the Pound / Yen pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 150.20, 149.24, 148.89, 148.10, 147.48, 146.67, 146.20, 145.57 and 144.52. Here, we follow the formation of the local upward structure of July 9. The consolidated traffic is possible in the corridor of 147.48 - 148.10 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 148.89 and in the corridor of 148.89 - 149.24 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is 150.20, but we expect the move to this level after the local structure is formalized.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor of 146.67 - 146.20 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 145.57 and this level is the key support for the upward structure of June 28. Its breakdown will have a downward movement. In this case, the target is 144.52 .

The main trend is a local structure for the top of July 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 148.15 Take profit: 148.85

Buy: 149.26 Take profit: 150.20

Sell: 147.40 Take profit: 146.70

Sell: 146.65 Take profit: 146.20

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Banking zones GBP / USD

The movement relative to the previous zone of bank liquidity indicates the formation of a flat range. Today's zone is formed slightly higher than the previous one, which increases the likelihood of a decline to the levels of the past Wednesday.

The upward movement made it possible to form a medium-term accumulation zone. The bank compilation zones of the last three weeks are on the same level, which indicates a high probability of the continuation of the flat. Today's closing of the US session will indicate the closest priority. To reduce the need to keep the price below the compilation zone. This will allow searching for sales, the purpose of which will be the June minimum, in the medium term.

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The upward movement last week was stopped after the June extremum test, which confirmed the interest of major players in the depreciation of the British pound. Favorable prices for the sale of the instrument will be within the zone of bank compilation if the American session is closed below current levels.

To form an alternative upward model, the takeover of today's fall, which takes place at the European session, will be required, and the closing of trades above yesterday's high. This will allow you to search for purchases, the purpose of which will be to update the high of this week. This model can be prolonged if the pair can gain a foothold above the level of 1.3314 in one of the American sessions. The direction of trade will be clear by the time of today's close of trading on the Chicago stock exchange.

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The euro remains under pressure after the European Commission report

The European currency continued its decline paired with the US dollar after weak data on inflation in Germany, where growth rates fell, and against the background of the European Commission report, which shows that experts expect a decline in the Eurozone economy in 2018.

According to the statistics agency, the annual inflation rate in Germany slowed in June, a negative sign for the European Central Bank, which plans to complete the asset purchasing program by the end of this year.

Thus, the final consumer price index CPI of Germany in June increased by only 0.1% compared to May and by 2.1% compared to June last year. Annual inflation in May this year was 2.2%. As before, the main increase was due to energy prices, which increased by 6.4% over the year. Food prices increased by 3.4% compared to June last year.

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The European Commission's report also did not benefit the European currency. It is evident that the economic forecast for 2018 has been revised for the worse. The Eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2018 against the previous forecast of 2.3%. In 2019, the Eurozone GDP is still projected to grow by 2%.

But the data on inflation were revised in a positive way. The report indicates that the European Commission predicts inflation in the eurozone in 2018 at 1.7% against the previous forecast of 1.5%. Inflation in the For 2019, inflation in the eurozone is projected at 1.7% against the previous forecast of 1.6%.

Economic growth will slow, despite good fundamentals, as US protectionism is fraught with significant downside risks to the economic growth of both the global economy and the euro area economy. Also, the tension in foreign trade relations in the future will further damage confidence and economic growth.

Data on industrial production in the euro area did not have a strong impact on the quotes of risky assets. According to the report of the statistical agency, industrial production in the eurozone in May 2018 increased by 1.3% compared to April and 2.4% compared to the same period in 2017. Economists had expected that industrial production of the eurozone in May will grow by 1.2% and 2.4%, respectively.

The representative of the Fed, Loretta Mester, had a positive impact on the quotations of the US dollar. According to the president of the Fed-Cleveland, a strong economy allows raising rates in the US two more times this year. If the Fed refrains from further raising rates, the risks can significantly increase, which will affect the pace of economic growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 11 July. The trading system "Regression channels". Britain continues to fever

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

CCI: 51.5209

On Tuesday, July 10, the currency pair GBP / USD, worked out the movings several times, but could not gain a foothold below it. From a fundamental point of view, it is more preferable to move down, as yesterday the next report failed, this time on industrial production in Great Britain. Keeping in mind the political problems of the United Kingdom, as before, there are no compelling reasons for long-term purchases of the British pound. From a technical point of view, the upward trend in the pair persists, as the price continues to be located above the moving average line. The last bars are painted blue, so there is no signal to open the longs. Today, we should pay attention to the speech of Mark Carney at 15-35 GMT. Given all the events of the past days, the head of the Bank of England can share with the public new and important information on Brexit, permutations in the Parliament of Great Britain.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3306

R2 = 1.3428

R3 = 1.3550

Trading recommendations:

For the pair GBP / USD, the upward trend keeps its prospects. Thus, it is recommended to wait for the signal about the completion of the correction and resume trading on the rise with the targets of 1.3306 and 1.3334.

It is recommended to open sell orders only after traversing the moving average line with a target of 1.3184. In this case, the pair will get a chance to resume the downtrend.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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The dollar should be bought on drawdowns

The world markets again felt a sense of instability and high risks that the growth of the world economy may be under serious pressure on the wave of the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China.

Wednesday's news about the US decision to increase trade duties on products from China to 200 billion dollars reminded the markets of the fragility of the current situation in the world and that the factor of trade wars will long affect the state of the world financial markets and investor sentiment.

Against the background of these events, the US dollar as a safe haven currency received strong support against major currencies. Moreover, it was also marked by a strong growth in relation to the Japanese yen, which usually wins in recent years against the dollar. As for the situation in the dollar-yen pair, it is the internal weakness of the Japanese currency, namely the lack of prospects of changing its current soft currency rate to a more tighter one and, as a result, the divergence in interest rates, and weakens it. Given this state of affairs, we can say that this pair has prospects for further growth, unless, of course, the current factors affecting the dynamics of the dollar and the yen remains unchanged.

Another important event on Wednesday was the collapse of the quotes of oil. The coincidence, and this is the escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, the message that Saudi Arabia has significantly increased the volume of oil production and the news that Libya is restoring its production and transportation, collapsed prices. At the moment, Brent crude oil fell by more than 7.0%, showing the strongest one-day drop in the last two and a half years. Perhaps on Thursday prices will recover slightly, but, as it seems to us, to speak about the probability of their turn upwards is not necessary.

Assessing the situation in the world markets, we believe that the strong decline in demand for risky assets will be interspersed with reversals primarily against the background of the expected strong corporate reporting of companies, which will somewhat smooth the overall negative sentiment in the markets. Although it is unlikely to correct the overall negative picture. Therefore, we consider it necessary to buy the US dollar in drawdowns.

The forecast for Thursday:

The AUD/USD pair is trading below 0.7400. It can try to recover to this level, from which it needs to be sold with local targets of 0.7360 and 0.7300-10.

The USD/CAD pair is trading above 1.3170. The decision of the Central Bank of Canada to raise rates does not support the Canadian dollar, which remains hostage to falling oil prices and trade wars as a commodity currency. The price may adjust to 1.3170. We believe that it should be bought from this level with the target of 1.3235.

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