The results of the Fed meeting are pushing the markets upwards, EUR and GBP will continue to grow

Markets continue to play the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 updated its record high on Thursday, reaching 2958.38, gold futures went into an 18-month high zone, the yields of 10-year Treasures returned to November 2016 levels.

The change in the Fed's policy direction led to a re-evaluation of the rate forecasts. According to the CME futures market, a two-fold rate cut before the end of the current year is considered to be a decided matter, and the third reduction is quite probable. Such a market consensus leaves traders no choice, since it indicates a guaranteed weakening of the dollar in the second half of the year.

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The question is not whether the dollar will fall, the question is only in the depth of the decline, because in addition to a drop in yields, panic from the rapidly approaching recession can be added at any time. The Fed assures that the US economy shows "moderate growth" and still expects the labor market to remain strong, and inflation will be pulled up to target 2%.

EURUSD

Consumer confidence, according to the European Commission, is down to -7.2p in June, which is slightly worse than forecast, and trust has been in negative territory for 7 months in a row, showing no signs of slowing down. The results of the study are in complete agreement with the slightly earlier published ZEW index, which noted a sharp decline in sentiment in the business environment.

The point is that at the July meeting, the ECB will be ready to lower its inflation forecast, which will automatically entail a whole chain of consequences. A sharp decline in oil prices at the end of May raises the likelihood of the inflation forecast being lowered for 2020, and this year the markets may well see a decline in growth rates to 0.6% in the fall - a number of large banks, in particular Nordea and Mizuho, are inclined to these figures.

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Accordingly, a decrease in inflationary expectations will be accompanied by a softening of monetary policy, which means that the planned beginning of the TLTRO3 may not be the ECB's main action in the coming months - it is quite possible to reduce the deposit rate. A recent study by the ECB of the effect of negative rates on macroeconomic indicators, contrary to the prevailing market opinion, focuses on a number of advantages for investors who are forced to reduce the amount of free cash and invest in large assets, which effectively stimulate the economy.

Reduced forecasts at the Fed rate triggered dollar sales across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market, but an overly strong euro is also a big problem for the ECB. While the threat of the eurozone economy falling into recession is small, there are no drastic steps for the ECB to take, so in the short term, the euro may well strengthen against the dollar for a couple of figures without any special consequences.

The 1.1130/35 target, designated as probable in the previous review, is canceled - the Fed has launched the dollar easing cycle. The euro may continue to grow, the nearest target is 1.1335/47, passing the resistance will make the euro's technical picture appear more bullish and will open the way to 1.1447.

GBPUSD

The Bank of England expectedly kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, the decision was made unanimously in full accordance with the forecasts, the asset repurchase program was left unchanged.

Despite the fact that the Bank of England has confirmed its intention to start raising interest rates in the coming years, there are no objective reasons for such steps to be seen on the horizon. Zero growth is expected in the second quarter, which is quite logical given the deterioration in basic macroeconomic indicators. The volume of industrial orders, according to CBI, fell to -15p in June, which corresponds to three-year lows, growth in retail sales slowed down, inflationary expectations are falling before our eyes, therefore, the wishes of Committee members look utopian at the moment.

The chances of a deal with the EU before October 31 remain unclear as the country has entered a political crisis, and markets are increasingly skeptical about the likelihood of a successful conclusion to the Brexit saga.

The pound has updated its low, having reached 1.2504, however, a reversal of the Fed policy provides the opportunity to develop a correctional growth, a resistance test of 1.2760 is possible for today.

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June 21, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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Since January 19th, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1175 (a previous weekly bottom which has been holding prices above for some time.

On the period between May 17th and June 5th, a bearish breakdown below 1.1175 was temporarily achieved.

As expected, further bearish decline was expected towards 1.1115 where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated bringing the EUR/USD pair back above 1.1175 demonstrating a significant bullish breakout off the depicted bearish channel.

Although Temporary Bullish breakout above 1.1320 was initially demonstrated (suggesting a high probability bullish continuation pattern),

Recently, The EURUSD pair has failed to maintain bullish persistence above 1.1320 - 1.1290 (Neckline of the double-top pattern) followed by a quick breakdown below the next key-zone around 1.1235.

This triggered a deeper bearish pullback towards 1.1200-1.1175 where significant bullish price action was demonstrated.

Short-term outlook remains positive/bullish as long as bullish persistence above 1.1270 (Recent Demand-Zone) and 1.1235 (key-zone) is maintained on the H4 chart.

A valid BUY entry was recently suggested upon the bullish breakout above 1.1235. It's already running in profits. SL should be raised to entry levels to offset the associated risk.

Trade recommendations :

For Intraday traders who missed the initial breakout, They should wait for another bullish breakout above 1.1320 as a BUY signal.

Initial Target levels to be located around 1.1390 and 1.1430.

Bearish decline below 1.1250 invalidates the current bullish scenario.

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June 21, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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On April 26, another bullish pullback was initiated towards the price zone of 1.3130-1.3170 (the upper limit of the movement channel) where the depicted bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2980-1.3020.

Bearish breakdown below 1.2980 allowed the recent significant bearish movement to occur towards the lower limit of the long-term channel around (1.2700-1.2650) where temporary bullish rejection was expressed.

Shortly after, temporary bullish breakout above 1.2650 was demonstrated for a few trading sessions. This enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.2750 which prevented further bullish advancement.

However, recent temporary bearish decline was demonstrated below 1.2600 hindering the mentioned bullish scenario for some time before bullish breakout could be achieved earlier This week.

For the bullish side of the market to remain dominant, bullish persistence above 1.2650 should be defended by the bulls.

SELL positions shouldn't be considered around the current low price levels unless bearish breakout below 1.2570 becomes confirmed on higher timeframes (low probability).

As long as bullish persistence above 1.2650 is maintained on H4 chart, further bullish movement should be expected towards 1.2750 and 1.2830.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can have a valid BUY entry anywhere around 1.2650.

T/P levels to be located around 1.2750, 1.2820, 1.2900 and 1.2940. S/L should be placed below 1.2600.

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Review for EUR/USD pair on June 21: The forecast for the "Regression Channels" system, Euro/dollar is ready for correction

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Older linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 133.0050

By and large, the upward movement in the EUR/USD pair ended yesterday with the start of the US trading session. The markets have fully worked out all the information received from Mario Draghi, who spoke at the ECB forum, and Jerome Powell. The last trading day of the week is an excellent reason for fixing positions on the euro and for correction. Today, we only note preliminary values of the index of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors from Markit as fundamental events for the USA and the European Union in June. Despite the fact that these are only preliminary values and June is not over yet, this data may cause traders to react if they differ too much from the predicted values. We remind you that the production IDA in Europe feels very bad and went below the level of 50, above which it can be concluded that there is revenge to be the growth of the industry. In America, the situation is slightly better. All three indices are above 50.0, but not very far from it. Potentially, any of the IDA may slip under this level in the near future. in turn, this will give traders a reason to talk again about the recession and that in America "everything is bad". In any case, we recommend paying attention to these reports today. From a technical point of view, the correction is ongoing while the prospects for the euro remain dim. There is only one chance for the euro currency to continue strengthening. If the US continue to disappoint with their macroeconomic statistics, it will give traders a reason to talk again about recession and that "everything is bad" in America.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1292

S2 - 1.1261

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1322

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1383

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair keeps moving upward, as evidenced by Heiken Ashi. Thus, it is now recommended to hold long positions with targets of 1.1322 and 1.1353 until Heiken Ashi turns down.

It is recommended to sell euros after traders fix a pair below the moving average line, which will change the downward trend, with the first targets of 1.1230 and 1.1200.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The older linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Control zones NZDUSD 06/21/19

Today, the pair is trading near the weekly CZ of 0.6615-0.6603, which makes it possible to record purchases opened at the beginning of the week. It is important to note that the weekly control zone is located outside of the average weekly move, which indicates the need for complete closure of purchases and the search for a cheap price for selling the instrument. If trading closes above the weekly control zone, then the probability of a corrective fall will increase to 90%.

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The second week forms a medium-term accumulation zone, so the main target levels can be considered the extremes of last week. Some purchases can be left in case of continued growth, but most of them are better consolidated at current levels.

An alternative model will develop if the pair starts to decline, not being able to reach the weekly control zone. This model will make it possible for you to get favorable prices for buying and continue working in an upward direction. Growth is an impulse, so any corrective movement should be considered as an opportunity to enter a long position.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 21/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Federal Revenue Office of Brazil (RFB) has published new rules that require cryptoclutting exchanges to inform him about user transactions in order to identify tax evasion.

The guidelines explain how Brazil's cryptocurrency trading platforms should adopt new rules to report on the movements of users' cryptographic funds to the office and how to meet the requirements of Normative Instruction 1.888 / 2019 published in May this year.

In particular, the RFB requires that cryptocurrency exchanges operators based in Brazil provide information on all transactions carried out under their system, while platforms based abroad must provide such information whenever the monthly value of the operation, individually or in aggregate, exceeds 30,000 Brazilian realities (7,750 dollars).

In addition to transaction volumes, exchange operators must also provide data such as the nationality of the digital currency owner, his place of residence or permanent residence and which cryptographic assets were used in the transaction.

As required, all information required must be provided within a specified time, i.e. "11:59:59 in Brasilia, the last calendar month following the month in which the operation took place". The new rules will come into force in September 2019.

When RFB announced that it creates requirements for cryptocurrencies, Ismair Junior Couto, the legal director of the Bitcoin Banco Group - the largest Brazilian cryptocurrency broker - said that the initiative had long been awaited. He added that Bitcoin Banco introduced provisions providing the required information to the authorities.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $284.50 as it broke through the technical resistance zone. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, the corrective structure in wave 4 is still possible, albeit it will be a big corrective pattern, so it will likely be a different cycle anyway. Nevertheless, the top of the wave (b) of the irregular correction is still on the table as long as the market trades below the wave 3 top at $288.61.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $345.37

WR2 - $311.54

WR1 - $291.71

Weekly Pivot - $256.95

WS1 - $239.45

WS2 - $203.99

WS3 - $185.39

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current uptrend wave is the wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 21/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

At the moment when Bitcoin's valuation is about 9,000 dollars, it exceeds the size of the Russian monetary base and if it were to be classified as a traditional currency, it would be the eighth highest currency in the world. In terms of the amount of money in circulation, Japan is the leader (conducting a highly adaptive monetary policy), China, the euro area and the United States.

The country's monetary base is a measure of cash in circulation or held in commercial deposits with the central bank (excluding gold reserves). Although the United States is one of the world's largest economies, in the face of a debt of $ 25 trillion, the US ranks fourth in the Asian economies and the euro area.

At the moment, the Bitcoin monetary base is larger than Russia, South Korea, Canada or Norway. Considering the growing interest in cryptocurrencies among institutional and retail investors, its value may still rise.

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of $9,785 and is still going up. This is the wave 5 of the overall impulsive wave progression, so the correction in wave 4 has been completed. The next target is seen at the level of $9,913, but the key long term target is still seen at $10k.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,709

WR2 - $10,500

WR1 - $9,878

Weekly Pivot - $8,649

WS1 - $7,945

WS2 - $6,737

WS3 - $6,016

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current uptrend wave is wave 5, which is an impulsive wave, so this is the best wave to trade. The target for wave 5 is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 21/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has continued the rally towards the level of 1.1343, but so far the local high was made at the level of 1.1318. The market is now consolidating the gains, but due to the strong and positive momentum, the bulls are still capable to move higher. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1343.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1376

WR1 - 1.1277

Weekly Pivot - 1.1237

WS1 - 1.1132

WS2 - 1.1096

WS3 - 1.0995

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is now up. All the local pull-backs and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. There is a downtrend reversal sign on the weekly time-frame chart, which is why the recent move up might be the beginning of the new uptrend, but it needs confirmation and so far there is no clear confirmation yet.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 21/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

After the strong rally, the GBP/USD pair has settled down a little and begun to consolidate the recent gains in a narrow horizontal. The technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.2652 - 1.2668 has been violated and the price is now back in the zone again. The local high was made at the level of 1.2725, but the momentum is strong and positive so there is a possibility of another leg up towards the technical resistance located between the levels of 1.2746 - 1.2761.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2846

WR2 - 1.2797

WR1 - 1.2673

Weekly Pivot - 1.2620

WS1 - 1.2493

WS2 - 1.2439

WS3 - 1.2301

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for June 21, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD pair had bounced off 1.1180/90 levels as expected. We had also suggested to remain flat and wait for a rally to sell again. Keeping in mind the previous forecast, we present another perspective for probable trend moves in the coming sessions for EURUSD. First, please note that prices have broken above the intermediary resistance line and it stays clearly into the buy zone. After breaking higher towards 1.1348 levels, EURUSD dropped lower towards 1.1180 levels, testing the backside of the trend line which is support. Also note that the Fibonacci 0.618 support was also seen around 1.1200 levels, supporting price action on the north side. A strong support can be now seen to have established at 1.1107 levels, and till the time prices stay above that, we can expect the sequence of printing higher highs and higher lows to continue. Trading point of view, an aggressive setup would be to remain short with risk just above 1.1317 levels, targeting 1.1230/40 while a conservative setup would be to wait for prices to drop lower towards 1.1230/40 levels and buy. The mid term trend could be changing to bullish,

Trading plan:

1. Aggressive: Sell @ 1.1300/05, stop above 1.1317, target 1.1235

2. Conservative: Remain flat. Buy lower @ 1.1230/40, stop below 1.1180, target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 21 - 2019

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Resistance near 136.94 was tested again an once more repelled prices lower. We continue to look for a final dip closer to 134.52 to complete wave 2 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3. This rally will ultimately break above the 148.87 peak.

We can note downside momentum weakening and expect the low of wave 2 will be found soon.

R3: 137.35

R2: 136.94

R1: 136.56

Pivot: 136.08

S1: 135.85

S2: 135.35

S3: 135.00

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 134.65 or upon a clear break above 136.94

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 21 - 2019

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EUR/JPY rallied to a high of 121.92 before turning lower again. As long as this new resistance is able to cap the upside, we should expect a final dip to 119.65 to complete wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave iii.

Moreover, we are seeing weakening downside momentum indicating a bottom could be found soon for a turn higher in wave iii. A break above 121.92 and more importantly a break above 123.18 will confirm wave iii developing for an ultimate break above the 127.50 peak.

R3: 122.13

R2: 121.97

R1: 121.65

Pivot: 121.34

S1: 121.04

S2: 120.75

S3: 120.50

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 119.75 or upon a break above 121.97

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 21,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German FlashServices PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, and French Flash Services PMI will be released. The US will publish such economic data as Existing Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI.So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Breakout BUY Level: 1.1349.Strong Resistance:1.1343. Original Resistance: 1.1332.Inner Sell Area: 1.1321.Target Inner Area: 1.1295. Inner Buy Area: 1.1269. Original Support: 1.1258. Strong Support: 1.1247. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1241. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 21,2019

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Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI and National Core CPI y/y. The US will publsih such economic data as Existing Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Resistance. 3:107.84. Resistance. 2:107.63. Resistance. 1:107.42.Support. 1:107.15.Support. 2:106.94.Support. 3:106.73. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on June 21, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar showed a not so bad growth of 42 points yesterday and now, it may have doubts about the advisability of further growth, especially on Friday. On the four-hour chart, the price is fixed above the balance lines and MACD indicator. The Marlin oscillator does not indicate a decrease. The growth potential of AUD/USD pair has not been exhausted with the target of 0.6953 on the MACD line of the daily chart. Leaving the price below the support of the MACD line at 0.6915 on the four-hour chart will not mean a change in the trend. A fully formed signal requires the price to be fixed below the balance line on H4. It may decline along with the price while remaining below it and maintaining the risk of renewed growth.

As a result, we assume working off the nearest target of 0.6953 and some local decline after, for example, to the level of 0.6887. Meanwhile, the H4 is ticked.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 21, 2019

EUR/USD

On the second day following the "dovish" Federal Reserve meeting, that is, yesterday, the markets began to play more actively against the dollar; oil has risen in price by 5.14%, gold by 2.06%, and today in the Asian session it adds the same amount. Despite the Fed's clear instructions to lower the rate once before the end of the year, the markets raised their expectations of two cuts, moreover, in July with a 100% probability. It just so happened that it was worth it for the Fed to declare a possible rate cut, as it collapsed with attacks from all sides. This was impossible before Powell. But besides the FOMC, the Fed still has shareholders. We believe that now is the time for them to intervene.

In the current situation, the euro is consolidating in the range of Fibonacci levels of 61.8% -76.4% on the four-hour chart. The indications of the leading Marlin indicator on both graphs - daily and H4, rising, the price has all the conditions for continued growth. The first goal is the range of 1.1348/56, formed by Fibonacci levels on charts of different scales: 100.0% on H4 and 76.4% on a daily basis.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 21, 2019

GBP/USD

On Thursday, the pound sterling currently grew by more than 80 points. This is a solid growth, so the strength to overcome the resistances in the form of the price channel line of the weekly timeframe and the balance line (indicator red) was no longer enough. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line lay sideways, probably, this is a sign of the market accumulating forces before further growth, as the oscillator is leading, but it does not decrease. The goal of the expected growth is the MACD line on the daily chart, at around 1.2840. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator for daily is growing in the zone of positive values. Exit prices above 1.2725 will be a signal for further growth.

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But despite the technically favorable situation for growth, the decline has its own reasons. These reasons: closing positions on Friday in order to lock in the profit of speculative growth. We still continue to believe that the growth of counterdollar currencies over the past two days has been more on emotional factors; the possibility of the release of today's good data on the US - home sales on the secondary real estate market in May are projected at 5.29 million against 5.19 million in April and growth in Services PMI in June from 50.9 to 51.0. The support is the four-hour MACD line at 1.2670.

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EUR/USD near resistance, a drop is possible!

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EURUSD is near resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible

Entry: 1.1315

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 1.14127

Why it's good :100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.1251

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal pullback support

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AUD/USD reversed off resistance, potential reversal!

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Price reversed off its resistance where we expect to see it drop further to its support at 0.6896.

Entry : 0.6934

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6958

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.6896

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

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USD/JPY breakout, possible drop!

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Price has continued to drop nicely.We expect to see a further drop from here.The tumble could continue till it reaches the 100% FIbonacci extension at 106.678.

Entry : 107.832

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance,50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 106.678

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for June 21

Forecast for June 21:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1404, 1.1370, 1.1353, 1.1328, 1.1309, 1.1281, 1.1263 and 1.1237. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 18. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.1309 - 1.1328. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1353. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1353 - 1.1370. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1404. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1281 - 1.1263. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1237. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1310 Take profit: 1.1328

Buy 1.1330 Take profit: 1.1353

Sell: 1.1280 Take profit: 1.1264

Sell: 1.1261 Take profit: 1.1240

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2842, 1.2798, 1.2735, 1.2713, 1.2670, 1.2642 and 1.2608. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.2713 - 1.2735. In this case, the goal is 1.2798, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2842. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2670 - 1.2642. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2608. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure from June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2736 Take profit: 1.2796

Buy: 1.2800 Take profit: 1.2840

Sell: 1.2670 Take profit: 1.2644

Sell: 1.2640 Take profit: 1.2610

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9883, 0.9850, 0.9828, 0.9787, 0.9766 and 0.9723. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 19. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9787 - 0.9766. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the potential target - 0.9723. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9828 - 0.9850. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the goal is 0.9883. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9828 Take profit: 0.9850

Buy : 0.9852 Take profit: 0.9881

Sell: 0.9787 Take profit: 0.9767

Sell: 0.9764 Take profit: 0.9725

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.77, 107.54, 107.08, 106.65 and 106.35. Here, the downward structure of June 17 is considered as a medium-term initial conditions. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level 107.08. Here, the goal is 106.65. For the potential value for the bottom, we still consider the level of 106.35. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 107.54 - 107.77. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the potential target is 108.12. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.55 Take profit: 107.76

Buy : 107.78 Take profit: 108.10

Sell: 107.05 Take profit: 106.65

Sell: 106.62 Take profit: 106.37

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3277, 1.3235, 1.3208, 1.3154, 1.3137, 1.3104 and 1.3069. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3154 - 1.3137. In this case, the target is 1.3104, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3069. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3235. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3277. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3233

Buy : 1.3237 Take profit: 1.3275

Sell: 1.3137 Take profit: 1.3106

Sell: 1.3102 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7032, 0.7008, 0.6969, 0.6937, 0.6906, 0.6892 and 0.6867. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6937. In this case, the goal is 0.6969, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level 0.6970 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7008. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7032. From which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.6906 - 0.6892. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6867. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure on June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6940 Take profit: 0.6967

Buy: 0.6972 Take profit: 0.7008

Sell : 0.6906 Take profit : 0.6892

Sell: 0.6890 Take profit: 0.6868

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.98, 121.59, 121.39, 121.14, 121.03, 120.75, 120.54 and 120.13. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of June 11. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 121.14 - 121.03. In this case, the target is 120.75. Price consolidation is in the range of 120.75 - 121.03. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.13. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 121.39 - 121.59. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.98. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the development of the downward structure of June 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.39 Take profit: 121.57

Buy: 121.62 Take profit: 121.96

Sell: 121.00 Take profit: 120.77

Sell: 120.73 Take profit: 120.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.04, 137.60, 137.30, 136.92, 136.40, 136.18, 135.77 and 135.32. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the potential for the top of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 136.92. In this case, the goal is 137.30. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 137.30 - 137.60. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.04. The movement to which, we expect after the breakdown of the level of 137.60.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 136.40 - 136.18. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 135.77. This level is a key support for the top. Its price passage will count on movement towards the first goal for the downward movement - 135.32.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.92 Take profit: 137.30

Buy: 137.32 Take profit: 137.60

Sell: 135.75 Take profit: 135.33

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD h4 vs USD / JPY h4 vs EUR / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from June 21, 2019. Analysis of APLs

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of options for the movement of the currency instruments EUR / USD vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY at the Minuette (H4 time frame) operational scale from June 21, 2019.

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Euro vs US Dollar

The development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from June 21, 2019 will be determined by the processing and the direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1270 <-> 1.1295 <-> 1.1320) Minuette operational scale fork. More details of working out of the boundaries of the channel are displayed on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1270 (lower boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette) -> the option of resuming the downward movement of the single European currency to the equilibrium zone (1.1230 <-> 1.1200 <-> 1.1170) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The breakdown of the level of resistance 1.1320 (the upper boundary of the channel of the a Median Line Minuette) together with the Minuette ISL38.2 (1.1327) -> the movement of EUR / USD will continue to balance the zone (1.1327 <-> 1.1365 <-> 1.1400) Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup options of the EUR / USD movement is shown in the animated graphic.

analytics5d0c27fbb1bfa.png

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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Starting from June 21, 2019, the movement of USD / JPY will also be due to the development of the 1/2 Median Line channel boundaries (107.35 <-> 107.55 <-> 107.75) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The details of the movement inside this channel are shown in the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 107.75 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette) -> variant of the upward movement of USD / JPY to targets -> initial line SSL (107.95) of the operational scale of the Minuette <-> UTL control line Minuette (108.29) <- > 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (108.74 <-> 109.15 <-> 109.55).

The breakdown of the support level of 107.35 (lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette) -> continuation of the downward movement of USD / JPY to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (107.00 <-> 106.65 <-> 106.30) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The markup options of USD / JPY movement look at the animated graphic ->

analytics5d0c2819601d5.png

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Euro vs Japanese Yen

Well and, accordingly, the development of the movement of the cross-instrument EUR / JPY from June 21, 2019 will also be determined by testing and by the direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel (121.85 <-> 121.55 <-> 121.25) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (support level of 121.25) -> the development of the cross-instrument movement can be continued to the initial SSL line (120.80) of the Minuette operating scale and the equilibrium zone boundaries (120.70 <-> 120.30 <-> 119.85) Minuette operating scale fork.

In case of a joint breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (resistance level of 121.85) and the initial SSL line (122.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of EUR / JPY will be directed to the UTL Minuette control line (122.85).

Marking options for the movement of the cross-instrument of the EUR / JPY is presented in the animated graphic ->

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analytics5d0ba8807d134.jpg

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The review was compiled without regard to the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Bank of England: orderly Brexit in the morning and a rate increase in the evening

The growth of the pound-dollar pair is only due to the US currency's weakness against the background of a temporary Brexit lull, while all other fundamental factors play against the sterling. Looking ahead, it should be mentioned that the upward dynamics of the GBP/USD pair should be treated with extreme caution: over the past month, buyers have repeatedly tried to develop a large-scale correctional movement, but each time they suffered a fiasco. The current situation is no exception, although the dollar has not been under such powerful pressure for a long time.

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And yet the pound has its priorities and its benchmarks. This GBP/USD pair is different from the other dollar pairs, where US events have a certain priority. But the British currency is entirely dependent on the prospects of Brexit and often ignores all other fundamental arguments. The Bank of England is also focused on Brexit, who has "tied" the prospects of monetary policy to the prospects of the "divorce process". The English regulator again reminded traders of the importance of this issue at today's meeting.

By and large, the Brekzit factor is the only factor that restrains the members of the English regulator from tightening monetary policy. Judging by how political events unfold in Britain, this "anchor" will hang on the interest rate for a long time. Moreover, the BoE head Mark Carney did not rule out a softening of the parameters of monetary policy, if the UK withdraws from the European Union without any agreement. Given such prospects and Boris Johnson's leading position, it can be assumed that the pound-dollar pair's growth is temporary. This means that traders should consider the expediency of opening short positions for the pair when approaching the first resistance level of 1.2760 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart).

In general, today, the English regulator left the parameters of monetary policy in its previous form. This is an absolutely expected decision that did not affect the dynamics of the currency pair. However, in its accompanying statement, the regulator identified the risks that have recently increased significantly. Firstly, global trade tensions increased, and secondly, investor fears about the increased likelihood of "chaotic" Brexit increased. In addition, the British regulator acknowledged that the British economy is on the path of stagnation, contrary to the central bank's projections. The April data on economic growth confirm these assumptions. Let me remind you that, according to figures published last week, GDP fell in April further into the negative area (on a monthly basis) - to -0.4% after falling to -0.1% in March. The index of industrial production growth altogether updated two-year lows, falling to the level of -2.7% with a forecast of decline to -0.7%.

As for inflation, the situation is somewhat better. This indicator was released in May at the level of two percent, which corresponds to the central bank's target level. In addition, the regulator noted a positive trend in the labor market. First of all, we are talking about the dynamics of the average earnings component: contrary to negative forecasts, the indicator showed growth (both with and without premiums), while the unemployment rate remained at 3.8%. At the same time, according to the members of the English regulator, by the end of the year, inflation is likely to show a negative trend due to lower energy prices. On the other hand, according to Carney, the current macroeconomic indicators allow the BoE to raise the interest rate - if not for one "but" in the form of political differences between Europe and Britain.

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Thus, following the June meeting, the Bank of England again left traders at a crossroads - "one-on-one with Brexit", so to speak. Judging by the rhetoric of Mark Carney, the regulator is ready for diametrically opposite actions, depending on the outcome of the negotiation process between London and Brussels.

Here the original circle of fundamental factors closes, as Europe and Britain, represented by the most likely candidate for the premiership of Johnson, stand at completely different poles of understanding the future prospects of Brexit. This fact sooner or later (but in the foreseeable future) will remind of itself, after which the pound will return to its already familiar state of depression. That is why the GBP/USD pair should be wary of the upward impulse: as soon as the dollar "recovers" (for example, against the positive results of the G20), the pound will not be able to continue to grow only at the expense of its own forces. Moreover, any verbal exchange of correspondence between Johnson and the representatives of Brussels will turn the pair 180 degrees, even despite the "well-being" of the US currency.

In terms of technique, the GBP/USD pair has the potential to grow to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to a price mark of 1.2760. If the pair overcomes this target (which is unlikely), then the Ichimoku indicator will generate a Golden Cross signal, which will open the way to the next resistance level of 1.2930 (lower Kumo cloud boundary). However, for such a price breakthrough, a corresponding information channel related to the prospects of Brexit is necessary. On one dollar weakness, it will be difficult for GBP/USD buyers to achieve similar price heights.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com