Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for October 31. The Fed allows the euro to target the 13th figure. Corbyn does not trust

EUR / USD

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October 30 ended for the pair EUR / USD with an increase of 40 basis points. Thus, the alleged wave b, after the third unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level, is still considered completed. If this assumption is correct, then the increase in quotations will continue with targets located about 12 figures or higher, in the framework of constructing the proposed wave c. So far, the euro can continue to rise, as it has the corresponding news background, but one should not forget that the EU economy is also experiencing problems and as they "flow out", the demand for the Euro currency in the currency market may begin to fall again.

Fundamental component:

The news background yesterday came down, by and large, to the evening meeting of the Federal Reserve System and its results as well as the speech by Jerome Powell at a press conference. Therefore, all the economic reports that came out during the day in America did not really interest the markets. Although, for example, according to preliminary estimates, the level of GDP in the third quarter was higher than the markets expected, + 1.9%. In addition, the value of the ADP report on changes in the number of people employed in the US private sector was not disappointing, + 125,000. In the evening, the Fed lowered its rate by a quarter point, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that he would continue to adhere to the policy of responding to economic reports. The Fed, in turn, will pay particular attention to the state of the labor market and inflation. It is also reported that by mid-2020, the Fed may revise inflation targets, as it has not been able to achieve them for a long time.

Purchase goals:

1.1208 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1286 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0879 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build a new upward wave set and has completed the construction of wave b. I recommend buying the instrument now, since the construction of the proposed wave with has begun. Its goals are located near the estimated levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci, which is equivalent to 1.1208 and 1.1286. A MACD signal "up" is also received.

GBP / USD

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On October 30, the GBP / USD pair gained about 40 basis points, however, in the case of this instrument, it is impossible to say with confidence that the construction of the upward trend section will resume. The pound-dollar pair also completed a series of unsuccessful attempts to break through the Fibonacci level of 100.0%, which indirectly indicates a willingness to build a new rising wave, but the news background in the next month may or may not be on the side of the pound, or may be absent. Thus, it is not a fact that the demand for the pound sterling will remain high, but the markets will actively buy this currency in anticipation of the parliamentary elections scheduled for December 12.

Fundamental component:

Yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn made an attempt to remove even the slightest possibility of holding Brexit by Boris Johnson before the election on December 12. Formally, Prime Minister Johnson still has the opportunity to implement Brexit, because if the elections are held on December 12, then Parliament should be dissolved 5 weeks before, that is, November 4. Accordingly, until November 4, Johnson can at least vote on his deal with the European Union at least everyday Of course, the position of the majority of the deputies is unlikely to change from this. Nevertheless, there is still a ghostly chance. However, the Parliament blocked the postponement of the election date by December 9 by a majority of votes. Thus, the next three days will be interesting in terms of finding out if Boris Johnson will try to push the deal through Parliament again. If not, then no reports will be received from the British Parliament from November 4 to December 12, and all the country's political parties will focus, perhaps, on the most important elections for the country over the past few decades. After all, the fate of Brexit will depend on who wins the election (and how many deputies will be represented in Parliament).

Sales goals:

1.2191 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend section. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of the alleged wave 3 or C and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument. Now, I recommend looking in the direction of sales after a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2812.

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Technical analysis recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 31

Fundamental component

Today, the economic calendar of the leading European monetary units has a lot of diverse statistics, but there are no important indicators. The only thing at 10:00 Universal time draws attention to the statistics block from the Eurozone. Here, the main indicator is the consumer price index. In addition, it can be noted that the main value in the current day will belong to the most favorable closing of the month.

EUR / USD

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Also today, October will be closed. Players on the rise are determined to close with optimism, and for this, they need a minimum upper shadow on the monthly candle. The chances of success are quite large. The result of interaction with the key resistance zone of this section (1.11885 - 1.1206 monthly Tenkan + monthly Senkou Span A + weekly Fibo Kijun) will be formed in November. Meanwhile, the supports are scattered today and form a rather wide zone 1.1146 - 1.1126 - 1.1104 - 1.1082.

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Yesterday, despite the uncertainty, the upward players managed to maintain their advantages at lower time intervals. Thus, they continued to rise. At the moment, the main value is the restoration of the daily upward trend (1.1180 maximum extreme) and further testing of the encountered resistance. From H1, intra-day resistance can be exerted by the classic pivot levels 1.1203 (R2) - 1.1251 (R3). On the other hand, the development of a downward correction will return the pair to the main support of the lower halves, which are located at 1.1129 (central pivot level) and 1.1108 (weekly long-term trend) today.

GBP / USD

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Rising players continue to hold on to the daily short-term trend (1.2900), clearly afraid of being in the abyss that separates Tenkan from other supports. Reliable consolidation above 1.2882 - 1.2900 (monthly Fibo Kijun + daily Tenkan) may allow to continue the rise after some time. At the same time, the recovery of the daily upward trend now lies through the update of the maximum (1.3012), followed by overcoming the resistance of the weekly cloud (1.3014-26). With a decline in the closest support zone, combining different levels of upward time intervals, 1.2669 - 1.2712 remains (weekly Fibo Kijun + monthly Tenkan + daily Fibo Kijun).

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Yesterday, the players on the rise managed to stay above the support of key levels and thanks to this, they continued to rise, having strengthened their positions by now. Nevertheless, the pair continues to remain in the zone of daily correction. Therefore, the main tasks for players to increase are still related to the benchmarks of the higher halves (1.3201 - 1.304-26). At present, key support on H1 is located at 1.2884 (central pivot level) and 1.2859 (weekly long-term trend) today. A reliable consolidation below will change the balance of power in the lower halves and return the pair to the possibility of continuing to decline through overcoming the minimum extreme (1.2788).

Divergences EUR / USD and GBP / USD (daily timeframe)

There are no new divergences.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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The results of the October meeting of the Fed: the forecasted rate cut and unexpected statement by Powell

The results of the October meeting of the Federal Reserve are controversial. By and large, the regulator implemented the most anticipated scenario: they lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points and hinted at maintaining a wait-and-see position in the near future. Given the general readiness for such a scenario, the dollar should have reacted positively, since the very fact of easing monetary policy was already taken into account in current prices. But the subsequent rhetoric of Jerome Powell crippled the position of dollar bulls. As a result, the dollar index fell from 97.599 to the current 97.148, and in turn, the EUR/USD pair consolidated in the middle of the 11th figure, in anticipation of tomorrow's Nonfarm. On the whole, nothing catastrophic happened for the dollar - the Fed simply did not remove the burden of uncertainty from the greenback regarding the future prospects of monetary policy.

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Yesterday, the US central bank clearly tried to maintain a balance between a hawkish and dovish mood. This "art of diplomacy" was perfectly mastered by the head of the ECB Mario Draghi, while his colleagues from the Federal Reserve are not so elegant in their wording. On the one hand, Fed members removed the phrase from the statement that they were ready to "take appropriate measures to support economic growth." They replaced this wording with a promise to monitor incoming data in order to "evaluate the appropriate rate path for federal funds." Translated into human language, this means that the short-term cycle of adjusting the interest rate is completed and now everything will depend on the incoming data - that is, the regulator takes a pause for an indefinite period.

On the other hand, the Fed rather restrained the general state of affairs in the US economy. The regulator acknowledged that uncertainty regarding future prospects still remains, general and core inflation is below the targeted two percent level, and economic activity is growing at a "moderate pace." Fed members also noted a negative trend in the areas of export and business investment. If we talk about the positive aspects, then the regulator took note of the US labor market: the growth rate of the number of employed, as well as record low unemployment is traditionally on the side of dollar bulls.

In general, the tonality of the accompanying statement was rather mild. The Fed suspended the interest rate reduction cycle, but, as they say, "with an open date." While many of the experts expected a rate increase in the next year (some of them even spoke about the first half of 2020). However, Jerome Powell put an end to such expectations. Speaking at a press conference, he said that the regulator is unlikely to consider the option of raising the rate in the foreseeable future. According to him, "this requires a steady and fairly significant increase in inflation." Only in this case, will the Federal Reserve only begin to "think" about such a move, according to Powell.

It is worth recalling that at the September meeting, when the Fed also lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points, there was a split among its members. The dot plot of expectations of Fed members suggests that seven officials of the US central bank stated the advisability of further steps to ease monetary policy, while five of their colleagues were in favor of maintaining a wait-and-see position, at least until the end of the year. Five members of the Fed did not rule out a rate hike of 25 basis points.

In turn, Powell's latest position indicates that the hawks have reconsidered their opinion on the prospects for raising the rate next year - now everything will depend on the dynamics of inflation growth. In this context, it will be interesting to look at the minutes of the meeting yesterday (it will be published in two weeks) in order to assess the alignment of forces in the Fed.

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If monetary policy is now truly "tied" to inflation, then this is bad news for dollar bulls. The consumer price index published in October was indeed very weak. The overall monthly index unexpectedly slowed to zero, contrary to growth forecasts to 0.1%. In annual terms, the CPI remained in place: in September, the indicator reached 2.4% YOY, although economists had expected growth to 2.5%. Core inflation was also disappointing. The core index, excluding food and energy prices, fell more than expected. In monthly terms, the index reached 0.1% last month, although experts predicted more substantial growth. The slowdown in core inflation is an alarming sign, especially amid a decline in the price index of GDP and the inflationary component of Nonfarm.

Thus, the results of yesterday's Fed meeting are controversial, but they are clearly not in favor of the US currency. Further corrective growth of the EUR/USD pair will depend on today's data on the growth of European inflation and tomorrow's Nonfarm (especially on the dynamics of wage growth). If these fundamental factors "resonate", then the pair will overcome the nearest resistance level of 1.1210 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), with the intention of reaching the main resistance level of 1.1300 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart).

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 31/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Chinese cryptocurrency mining giant, Canaan Creative, has applied to become a public company in the United States.

Canaan Creative filed an IPO with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to raise $ 400 million, while planning to list on Nasdaq under the name CAN. Canaan reportedly submitted an $ 200 million IPO application to US regulators in July, but the formal F-1 form has been made public today.

If the company succeeds, Canaan, which is one of the three largest Chinese mining companies, next to Bitmain and Yibang International, may become the first Chinese mining company that is listed on the US Stock Exchange.

Bitmain has already made an offer for a stock exchange debut at the SEC in June 2019 after the expiry of its application for stock trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March.

Canaan's biggest competitor, Bitmain, opened, he claimed, the world's largest Bitcoin mining facility in Rockdale, Texas, which was completed through collaboration with the Rockdale Municipal Development District and Canadian technology company DMG Blockchain Solutions.

Clinton Brown, project manager of Rockdale for Bitmain, said that commissioning the facility is "essential to Bitmain's global expansion plans" and that stable and efficient state energy resources will be fundamental to supporting what he believes is the inevitable scale of mining industry growth.

Technical Market Overview:

After a Harami candlestick pattern was made around the level of $193.00, all the bullish attempts to rally are being reversed by bears and the price of ETH/USD is making new local lows. The market has entered a corrective cycle with a low made at the level of $172.91, but as long as ETH/USD trades above the level of $163.11 there is still a chance for another impulsive wave up. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $193.52 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $179.94. The key technical support is located at the level of $172.91.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $249.74

WR2 - $225.62

WR1 - $207.85

Weekly Pivot - $177.85

WS1 - $161.54

WS2 - $131.99

WS3 - $115.01

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 31/10/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Bitcoin mining company belonging to the Russian Ombudsman plans to open a new facility and gain 20% of the international market.

The Russian Mining Company (RMC) plans to change the purpose of the metal factory in the northern province of Karelia, according to a local news site. Closed due to US sanctions in 2018, the former Rusal facility may soon host such a large mining farm that it could account for one-fifth of global production.

"Our idea is to transform the factory and sell computing power as a service, that is, offering IT services," said general director Dmitry Marinichev.

Mariniczew led the RMC through an ICO of $ 43 million in 2017, which remains the largest in Russia.

Despite links to the Russian government, Marinichev criticized some policies, especially aspects related to the Internet. For example, the Kremlin's attempt to block the Telegram communicator caused contempt. Efforts to date have failed, because Telegram is still available, while the company may soon be moving to issue its own digital currency.

"It cannot be blocked by blacklisting IP addresses. This way the battle will go on forever, even if you consider that part of the Telegram client is open-source software whose internal operations can be analyzed and understood," he said in an interview. from May last year.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD market is still trading below the short-term trendline resistance and bulls are struggling to break through it. The zone from $9,645 to $10,278 is still a sell zone, where most of the sell orders have entered the market. The immediate support is seen at the level of $8,925. The bearish pressure intensifies and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,760 or even $8,474 before a new wave up will be made.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,033

WR2 - $12,095

WR1 - $10,995

Weekly Pivot - $9,057

WS1 - $8,029

WS2 - $6,062

WS3 - $4,932

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 31/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The volatility on the GBP/USD market has jumped in the last 24h and Cable is trying to move higher towards the local technical resistance located at the level of 1.2939. Nevertheless, the price is still locked in a narrow horizontal range located between the levels of 1.2783 - 1.2865 and no major breakout occurred yet. The market participants await a breakout in any direction, but on the other hand, the market might be making the Bullish Flag or Pennant pattern as well. Despite the neutral momentum, the bears are getting more active and try to push the prices lower towards the next technical support located at the level of 1.2783. The key technical support is still located at the level of 1.2561. The larger timeframe trend remains bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3149

WR2 - 1.3068

WR1 - 1.2923

Weekly Pivot - 1.2842

WS1 - 1.2710

WS2 - 1.2624

WS3 - 1.2478

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3000 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 31, 2019, on the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price will move up with the target 1.3013 - the upper fractal (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price may continue to move up.

The first upper target 1.3013 is the upper fractal (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement to a pullback level of 23.6% - 1.2764 (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 31, 2019, on the EUR / USD currency pair

The pair on Wednesday moved to the side channel before interest rates. The price, after having once again tested the support line 1.1103 (red bold line), went up. The news coincided with the trend of technical analysis. On Thursday, strong calendar news is expected at 13.00 Moscow time (Euro). On Thursday, we are waiting for an uptrend.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the market may try to break through the upper fractal - 1.1181 upper fractals. If successful, the next target 1.1209 is a retracement level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, upward movement is possible.

The first upper target 1.1181 is the upper fractal.

If successful, the next target 1.1209 is a retracement level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely lower scenario is a downward movement with the target 1.1137 - a pullback level of 14.6% (red dashed line).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 31/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has managed to get back into the ascending channel and bulls are now preparing to test the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1179. The momentum is now clearly strong and positive, so there is still a chance for another leg up and even the breakout. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1232 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1121.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1242

WR2 - 1.1207

WR1 - 1.1134

Weekly Pivot - 1.1103

WS1 - 1.1028

WS2 - 1.0992

WS3 - 1.0922

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 31 - 2019

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GBP/JPY remains stuck in a narrow trading range below short-term important resistance at 140.74. As long as this resistance is able to cap the upside, we continue to look for renewed downside pressure towards at least 137.74 and possibly even closer to 135.67 to complete the correction in blue wave ii.

That said, we also would like to stress that we are right in the middle of the strongest of the impulsive waves and the possibility of a sub-normal correction is high. A break above short-term important resistance at 140.74 will confirm this is the case and renewed strength has reemerged for the next rally higher towards 144.98.

R3: 141.51

R2: 141.12

R3: 140.74

Pivot: 140.21

S1: 139.74

S2: 139.26

S3: 139.07

Trading recommendation:

We will buy 50% EUR at 137.85 and 50% at 135.75 or we will buy 100% upon a break above 140.74

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31 - 2019

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EUR/JPY has broken above short-term important resistance at 121.39 indicating that the correction completed earlier and the next impulsive swing higher is developing. The next upside target to look for is seen at 122.00 and the 123.18 on the way higher towards 124.64.

Only an unexpected break back below 120.55 will indicate that the correction is still developing and a final dip to 119.87 is still likely.

R3: 123.18

R2: 122.55

R1: 122.00

Pivot: 121.14

S1: 120.97

S2: 120.84

S3: 120.55

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 and we will move our stop higher to 120.25

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on October 31. Pound continues to be bought amid the Fed's decision to lower rates

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

While Brexit and UK election news did not support the pound and were ignored by buyers, yesterday the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates led to a resumption of the upward trend. At the moment, the bulls are gradually approaching the upper boundary of the lateral channel at 1.2943, and further growth of the pair will depend on its breakdown. Consolidation above 1.2943 will be a signal to buy GBP/USD in order to update this month's highs in the area of 1.3012, where I recommend profit taking. If pressure on the pound returns, and this can happen after the publication of US reports, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakout in the support area of 1.2875, or on a rebound from the lower boundary of the side channel at 1.2807.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears will try not to let the pair go above the resistance of 1.2943, but only the formation of a false breakout at this level will be a signal to open short positions. A more important task for sellers will be a return to a support of 1.2875, which acts as a kind of mid-side channel. Consolidating below this range will raise the pressure on the pound and lead to an update of the low of 1.2807, where I recommend profit taking. In the further scenario of GBP/USD growth amid weak reports on the state of the US economy, it is best to consider short positions after updating the monthly high of 1.3012, or even higher, in the resistance area of 1.3074.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible continued growth of the pound.

Bollinger bands

In the scenario of a decrease in GBP/USD, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2860.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 31. The Fed lowers rates, but announces a pause in the cycle. Bulls need

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro growth resumed after the Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates. Even though many expected this event, buyers managed to break above the resistance of 1.1149, which quickly pushed the pair to the highs of this month. The main goal of the bulls in the first half of the day will be to break through the range of 1.1178, but this can only be done if good fundamental statistics on inflation in the eurozone and GDP growth are achieved. The breakdown of the high of 1.1178 opens a direct path to a new resistance of 1.1226 and 1.1289, where I recommend profit taking. If the data on the eurozone turn out to be worse than the forecasts of economists, the scenario of EUR/USD return to the support area of 1.1149 is not ruled out. It is best to open long positions from there only after the formation of a false breakout. I recommend buying immediately on the rebound only from the larger area of support for this week at 1.1116.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro sellers will be concentrated in a false breakout in the region of a high of this month at 1.1178, which will be the first signal to open short positions in EUR/USD, the purpose of which will be a support of 1.1149. But it will be possible to break below this range provided that the inflation and economic growth rates of the eurozone are weak. Breakthrough at 1.1149 will raise the pressure on the pair, which will lead to a return to the area of lows of 1.1116 and 1.1082, where I recommend profit taking. If the euro rises in the morning above the resistance of 1.1178, it is best to return to short positions to rebound from highs of 1.1226 and 1.1289.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the advantage of buyers of the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the average boundary of the indicator at 1.1135, and you can buy for a rebound immediately from the lower level of 1.1090.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, October 31, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Prelim GDP q/q, Unemployment Rate, Prelim Flash GDP q/q, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, French Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI, Unemployment Claims, Personal Income m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1217. Strong Resistance: 1.1211. Original Resistance: 1.1200. Inner Sell Area: 1.1189. Target Inner Area: 1.1163. Inner Buy Area: 1.1137. Original Support: 1.1126. Strong Support: 1.1115. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1109. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, October 31, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Consumer Confidence, BOJ Policy Rate, and Prelim Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI, Unemployment Claims, Personal Income m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.23. Resistance. 2: 109.03. Resistance. 1: 108.81. Support. 1: 108.55. Support. 2: 108.34. Support. 3: 108.12. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 31, 2019

EUR/USD

Unfortunately, we hastened to shift the local situation to medium and long-term prospects for strengthening the dollar. Risk appetite in the market is still strong, and after lowering the FOMC Fed rate, the dollar index fell 0.23% and the stock market grew 0.33%, while the euro added 40 points. But it should be noted that the markets began to fall immediately after the rate cut, and it only turned into growth on the comments of Jerome Powell, who did not look hawkish. As usual, Powell did not fall into the mood of investors. Instructions for taking a pause in the mitigation cycle were both in the accompanying statement and in the speech of the Fed chairman, but soft and inexpressive.

The preliminary signs that we paid attention to before the release of the Fed came out positive: in the private sector, according to ADP estimates, 125 thousand new jobs were created in October, GDP for the third quarter was 1.9% against the expectation of 1.7%. The Fed (primarily Powell) had reason for more hawkish formulations.

Risk appetite was strengthened by Donald Trump's announcement of progress in trade negotiations with China.

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On the daily chart, the price went above the resistance line of 110.0%, the Marlin oscillator turned after the price, which indicates the organic nature of the current growth. As a result, we expect further growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1215.

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On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the MACD indicator line, Marlin is growing, the situation here is also increasing. As part of the growth, a local decline to the MACD line is possible at around 1.1146.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 31, 2019

GBP / USD

As a result of Wednesday, the pound has grown by 44 points after the Fed trims the rate from 2.00% to 1.75%. On the daily chart, the Marlin Oscillator is reluctant to turn after the price, which warns of a short-term growth prospect. The immediate goal is the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at the price of 1.2987. Overcoming the level will make it possible for the price to grow further to the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.3060.

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On the four-hour chart, the price went above the red indicator line of the balance, shifting the local market sentiment towards purchases, but the MACD line is located near the target level at the Fibonacci level of 1.2987. This range (1.2975 / 87) will now be the target.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on October 31, 2019

AUD / USD

On Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve decided to cut the base rate by a quarter point, the Australian dollar grew by 39 points, this morning it is adding another 22 points. Such growth made it possible for the price to overcome the upper limit of the decreasing price channel, originating from last January. The price channel is canceled. The channel of the highest scale remains on the daily chart. Currently, the price is testing one of the embedded lines of this channel. Consolidation above it will allow the price to grow even higher, to the nearest line to the area of 0.7008. The Marlin indicator does not contradict this.

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On the H4 chart, the price is firmly consolidated above the lines of balance and MACD, with Marlin in a growing position.

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EURUSD approaching resistance, potential big drop coming up!

Entry : 1.11657

Why is it good: Horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss: 1.12300

Why is it good: Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% fiboancci retracement

Take Profit: 1.10670

Why is it good: Horizontal overlap support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs as of October 31

Forecast for October 31:

Analytical review of currency pairs in scale H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1207, 1.1187, 1.1178, 1.1161, 1.1143, 1.1132 and 1.1115. Here, we are following the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the top of October 29. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1161. In this case, the target is 1.1187. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1187 - 1.1178. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1207. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.1143 - 1.1132. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1115. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the top of October 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1161 Take profit: 1.1178

Buy: 1.1188 Take profit: 1.1207

Sell: 1.1143 Take profit: 1.1133

Sell: 1.1131 Take profit: 1.1115

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, the price has entered an equilibrium state. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2959. In this case, the first target is 1.3035. The breakdown of the level of 1.3035 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215.

We expect consolidated movement in the range of 1.2877 - 1.2810. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of potential for the downward cycle. Here, the goal is 1.2625.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3031

Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140

Sell: 1.2808 Take profit: 1.2717

Sell: 1.2713 Take profit: 1.2627

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9913, 0.9901, 0.9892, 0.9879. 0.9871, 0.9857 and 0.9837. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of October 28. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 0.9879 - 0.9871. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.9857. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9837. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9892 - 0.9901. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9913. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9892 Take profit: 0.9900

Buy : 0.9903 Take profit: 0.9913

Sell: 0.9870 Take profit: 0.9858

Sell: 0.9855 Take profit: 0.9838

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 109.39, 109.29, 109.13, 108.85, 108.72 and 108.53. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 23. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.13. In this case, the target is 109.29. Price consolidation is in the range of 109.29 - 109.39. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.58, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.85 - 108.72. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.53. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local structure for the top of October 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.13 Take profit: 109.29

Buy : 109.40 Take profit: 109.56

Sell: 108.85 Take profit: 108.74

Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.55

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185, 1.3143, 1.3124 and 1.3101. Here, the price forms the long-term initial conditions for the upward cycle of October 29. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.3185 - 1.3208. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3246. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3268. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3143 - 1.3124. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3101. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of October 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3185 Take profit: 1.3206

Buy : 1.3209 Take profit: 1.3246

Sell: 1.3143 Take profit: 1.3126

Sell: 1.3122 Take profit: 1.3101

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6959, 0.6938, 0.6928, 0.6910, 0.6888, 0.6874 and 0.6854. Here, we are following the development of the local upward cycle of October 28. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6910. In this case, the target is 0.6928. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6928 - 0.6938. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6959. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6888 - 0.6874. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6854. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of October 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6928

Buy: 0.6938 Take profit: 0.6959

Sell : 0.6888 Take profit : 0.6875

Sell: 0.6873 Take profit: 0.6855

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.52, 122.17, 121.79, 121.58, 121.23, 121.03 and 120.77. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 25. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.58 - 121.79. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 122.17. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 122.52. Upon reaching this value, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect a short-term downward movement in the range of 121.23 - 121.03. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 120.77. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.58 Take profit: 121.78

Buy: 121.81 Take profit: 122.17

Sell: 121.23 Take profit: 121.04

Sell: 121.02 Take profit: 120.78

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, the price is still in the equilibrium. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75

Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

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New horizons for the pound, or Brexit stumbled on an early election

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For the first time since 1923, the United Kingdom will hold general elections in December to break the impasse associated with Brexit, CNBC reports.

The corresponding bill in the British Parliament was introduced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The opposition agreed with the proposal of the head of government only after the European Union agreed to postpone Brexit for three months - until January 31, 2020.

On the eve of the election, 438 deputies of the House of Commons spoke in favor, 20 against it.

"This Parliament is broken and dead, so it must be dissolved. There is no support among the deputies in promoting a law that will make ratification of the deal with the EU a reality. Universal voting is needed to put an end to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, which undermines public confidence, "says B. Johnson.

For the elections to take place within the agreed time, the Parliament must be dissolved no later than November 6th. Johnson has five working days left for the bill to go through the remaining stages of approval. The bill approved by the House of Commons should now be considered by the House of Lords, whose members have the right to amend it and return it to the lower house for new reading. The bill will gain the force of law after it is signed by Queen Elizabeth II.

Everything indicates that the document will be approved on time, and in December the British will go to the polls for the third time in four years.

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According to analysts, this election promises to be one of the most unpredictable in the history of the United Kingdom. It is still unknown whether they will help Great Britain break the current political impasse.

It is assumed that if the Conservatives win, a "divorce" agreement will be signed with Brussels. If the Labour Party prevails, they will propose a new referendum.

According to recent polls, the advantage is still on the Tory side. They are 10% ahead of the Labour Party. However, five weeks before the election, the situation can radically change.

"In the short term and during the election campaign, we consider the pound a little vulnerable, given the recent elimination of Brexit risk without a deal. Nevertheless, the early elections were mostly an expected event and, as such, should not cause a serious reaction from the GBP," say Danske Bank strategists.

"The EUR/GBP pair will trade in the range of 0.85-0.90 before the election. If Conservatives get a majority in the House of Commons, then EUR/GBP will shift to the lower limit of this range of about 0.8750. The victory of the opposition will strengthen hopes for the abolition of Brexit and support the pound with a probability of a break below 0.85. The suspended Parliament will create new uncertainty, but the growth potential of the EUR/GBP pair is likely to continue to be limited to 0.90, they predict.

Specialists at Standard Chartered advise buying the pound against the US dollar amid increasing prospects for early general elections in December.

They recommend a long position on GBP/USD with a target at 1.3350 and a stop order at 1.2700.

"The prospect of early elections in December removes political obstacles to a deal on Brexit. At the same time, the probability of Britain leaving the EU without a deal is reduced to zero," experts said.

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Is the Canadian dollar a child of fortune? The loonie has a second wind

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The Canadian dollar has been on the rise since the beginning of the week. However, experts suggest that the flight of the loonie can be interrupted by changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, as well as a deterioration in economic data. In this situation, the market favors the loonie, analysts emphasize.

The loonie was in the spotlight on Wednesday, October 30. The market is monitoring the further actions of the Bank of Canada, which is ready to hold a meeting on monetary policy. If the regulator keeps the rate at 1.75%, while the Fed reduces it to 1.50% –1.75%, then the Canadian dollar will push its American counterpart. The loonie claims to be the leader, striving to become the most profitable currency in the "Big Ten."

According to analysts, the rise of the Canadian dollar is possible not only in case of maintaining the same rates, but also amid optimistic comments of the regulator regarding the growth of the national economy. At the last meeting, the Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged. The regulator focused on strengthening the labor market, increasing wages and the positive state of the economy.

Analysts believe that current data on the Canadian economy will not be so rosy. The regulator should take into account a number of negative factors, such as a slowdown in retail sales, a drop in the consumer price index, a decrease in GDP growth and inflation risks. At the moment, the labor market in Canada remains strong, wage growth is quite stable, however, the weakness of the national economy along with the worsening situation in the United States may lead to a change in Bank of Canada's strategy. In such a situation, the regulator will review the current decision on rates. If this happens, a stable short-term low will form in the USD/CAD pair, analysts said.

The positive against the Canadian dollar is radiating from the options market. According to experts, the three-month risk reversal with a delta of 25% demonstrates the most favorable period for the growth of the loonie to the US dollar. This has not happened since 2009, experts emphasize. Reducing the risk-reversal in the USD/CAD pair for three-month option contracts is a barometer of long-term investor sentiment. Analysts record a bullish trend for the Canadian dollar, noting that over the past 10 years, investors have never been so optimistic about the loonie.

A similar change of mood occurred shortly before the decisions of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy and the Federal Reserve at the key rate. Currently, the loonie has been supported by both a profitable interest rate differential and increased expectations for a trade deal between the United States, Mexico and Canada in November.

On Tuesday, October 29, the USD/CAD pair peaked in the past four weeks. On Wednesday morning, the pair fell by 0.08% to 1.3078-1.3880.

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Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair showed an increase of 0.3% to a high since the beginning of October. The pair hit the 1.3098 bar, but is now pulling back to its lows. Yesterday's growth of the pair from an intraday low was caused by an increase in sales, Scotiabank analysts believe. Experts are certain that the pair is normal. At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading in the range of 1.3077–1.3078, showing an upward trend.

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Analysts agree that the current situation is quite favorable for the loonie. Most of them note excellent prospects for it. The Canadian dollar, which seemed to have opened its second wind, is capable of another leap forward, experts said. They expect a moderate, long rise of the loonie in the short and medium term.

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GBP/USD. Pound fell into suspended animation: traders await final decision on re-election in Britain

Dollar pairs are waiting for the main event of the day, which will be held at the end of the US session. This, of course, is about the announcement of the results of the October meeting of the Federal Reserve and the subsequent press conference of Jerome Powell. Given the importance of this event, it is better not to trade in dollar pairs today - at least until the position of the Fed head is clear in the light of the latest data on the US labor market, industrial production and inflation. The pair pound-dollar is no exception, and not only because of American events. The pound lives in its "coordinate system" in recent years, where the unconditional priority is the issue of Brexit.

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Therefore, now GBP/USD traders are waiting not so much for the Fed meeting as for the third reading on the re-election bill in the UK. Despite all the previous voting on this issue, the Parliament has not yet set a final point, which means the intrigue is still preserved. This explains the complete suspended animation of the British currency: the GBP/USD pair has not been moving for almost the third day, demonstrating only slight fluctuations within the 30-point range. But in the end, the price returns to the middle of the 28th figure, drifting in anticipation of a powerful news impulse.

As you know, the Lower House of the British Parliament supported in the second reading the bill on the holding of early elections. Now the document was sent to the Upper House of Parliament (House of Lords) for consideration and approval. It is worth noting here that the House of Lords is not an appeal court. Having adopted their amendments, they send the document back to the Lower House of Parliament, where MPs may or may not support it. Next, the bill returns again to the Lords. In other words, the House of Lords can comment, forcing the House of Commons to come back to this issue. However, most experts doubt that the deputies of both houses of the British Parliament will play it like table tennis - at least now, in anticipation of the third reading.

For example, last month, the House of Lords approved a bill in just a few days, requiring Johnson's cabinet of ministers to ask Brussels for another postponement of the country's exit from the EU. It is noteworthy that, contrary to various assumptions, this bill was approved in the final reading without a vote - members of the Upper House of Parliament did not introduce a single amendment. The Lords showed amazing solidarity in this matter, as it managed to do so in just a few days. Members of the Upper House may also show similar efficiency now, given the fact that the dissolution of Parliament should occur 25 working days before the election.

Traders of the GBP/USD pair currently completely ignore the events, as during the third reading of the bill, deputies will discuss and vote on the amendments presented. Yesterday, Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle did not allow MPs to vote on amendments that are unacceptable to the government. But at the same time, the House of Commons voted so that the deputies had the opportunity to amend on the eve of the third reading. Traders rightly fear that Johnson's so-called "unacceptable" adjustments to the law will lead to the failure of the election. Let me remind you that Downing street has already announced that it will withdraw the bill in case of approval of such amendments, in particular to reduce the age limit for voting in elections to 16 years.

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However, if Johnson still manages to push his initiative, the pound may react quite rapidly. By and large, the outcome of the December elections will be a determining factor in the fate of the Brexit deal. And given the recent ratings of Conservatives, they have every chance of forming their own majority. The support of Tory representatives has already reached 40%, while the Labour Party has remained at the same level - 24%. Compared with the survey the year before last, support for Conservatives grew by 3%, but the result of the Labor Party did not change. Liberal Democrats, in turn, received 15% support in the latest poll, and Nigel Faraj's Brexit party received 10%.

Thus, any hint of approval of the third-reading early election bill will support the British currency. Most likely, this issue will be resolved before the beginning of next week. But it is unlikely that the deputies of the current Parliament will have time to consider the Johnson's deal before November 6 (the expected date of the dissolution of the House of Commons). They are unlikely to want to do this: the re-election will become a kind of "repeat referendum" on the Brexit issue, so MPs will probably not want to get ahead of the events by approving the proposed deal.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 30 - 2019

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EUR/JPY remains locked inside a trading range between 120.33 to 121.48. A dip below 120.33 as a false break is likely to occur. If it comes true, it will quickly revert to the upside as the next impulsive rally will go towards 124.64 and 129.50 as the next larger targets.

Only a direct break above 121.39 will confirm that the correction has completed and the next impulsive rally is developing.

R3: 121.47

R2: 121.30

R1: 121.15

Pivot: 120.81

S1: 120.57

S2: 120.32

S3: 119.87

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 30, 2019, on the GBP / USD currency pair.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price may move up to the upper fractal - 1.2950. From this level, it is possible to continue moving up to the next upper fractal - 1.3013 (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price may continue to move up.

The first upper target is the upper fractal - 1.2950, then in case of breakdown of this level, the movement up to the next upper fractal is 1.3013 (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is to work down to the lower fractal 1.2789.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 30/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The volatility on the GBP/USD market has clearly dried up and Cable is still being locked in a narrow horizontal range located between the levels of 1.2783 - 1.2865 as no major breakout occurred yet. The market participants await a breakout in any direction, but on the other hand, the market might be making the Bullish Flag or Pennant pattern as well. Despite the neutral momentum, the bears are getting more active and try to push the prices lower towards the next technical support located at the level of 1.2783. The key technical support is still located at the level of 1.2561. The larger timeframe trend remains bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3149

WR2 - 1.3068

WR1 - 1.2923

Weekly Pivot - 1.2842

WS1 - 1.2710

WS2 - 1.2624

WS3 - 1.2478

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3000 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 30/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The bounce from the level of 1.1075 was successful and bulls are trying again to get back into the ascending channel. Currently, the price is testing the level of 1.1109 which is a local technical resistnace. The volatility has slightly increased and the overall market participants' activity is more visible. The momentum is now slightly positive, but there is still a chance for another leg up after the breakout, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1160.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1242

WR2 - 1.1207

WR1 - 1.1134

Weekly Pivot - 1.1103

WS1 - 1.1028

WS2 - 1.0992

WS3 - 1.0922

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 30, 2019, on the EUR / USD currency pair.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price, from the level of 1.1113, may make a move up with the target of 1.1164 - the upper fractal. In case of breaking through, continuing to work upwards with the target of 1.1209 is a retracement level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, an upward movement is possible.

The first upper target 1.1164 is the upper fractal.

The next upper target 1.1209 is the retracement level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario - from the level of 1.1113, work down with the target of 1.1066 - pullback level of 32.8% (red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 30

Fundamental component (Universal release time of the news)

Today, the statistics from the Eurozone is quite mediocre. You can only pay attention to the publication of data on the change in the number of unemployed in Germany (8:55 UTC+00). Furthermore, indicators from the USA may have their value. At 12:30 UTC+00, GDP data are expected, at 14:30 UTC+00 on crude oil reserves, and at 18:00 UTC+00, the Fed will make a decision on the interest rate.

EUR / USD

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In the last days of the month, the upward players are trying to hold positions and remain optimistic for the monthly result. The role of support and attraction in the current conditions is played by the weekly Fibo Kijun (1.1083) and the daily cloud, while the support for the daily short-term trend, which has moved into the resistance category and is now located at 1.1126. In addition, the previous resistances 1.1146 - 1.1185 - 1.1206 continue to remain in place. The inability of the players to increase their departure from the zone of attraction indicates their weakness at the moment, so that the opponent, when consolidating under the support (1.1083), can begin to actively strengthen its mood. In this case, reference points will be the final levels of the daily cross (1.1030 - 1.0994), weekly Tenkan (1.1030) and the lower border of the daily cloud.

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In the lower halves, key levels (central pivot-level of the day 1.1101 + weekly long-term trend 1.1106) form a fairly narrow support zone, located almost horizontally for a long time. All of these indicates a lack of directional movement and uncertainty. The location of the pair above the key support (1.1101-06), as of the moment, gives the current advantage to the players to increase. In turn, reference points within the day can be designated the resistance of the classic pivot levels - 1.1130 (R1) - 1.1147 (R2) - 1.1176 (R3). Consolidation under 1.1101-06 will give the current advantage to the players for a decline, while the classic pivot levels will also act as bearish signs - support 1.1084 (S1) - 1.1055 (S2) - 1.1038 (S3).

GBP / USD

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The daily short-term trend served as a reason for braking, but so far, it (1.2900) has combined its efforts with the monthly Fibo Kijun (1.2882) and forms the nearest resistance zone. If the players on the rise will not be able to gain a foothold above in the near future, then they are unlikely to be able to avoid the continuation of the decline. The following benchmarks for the decline today remain in the area of 1.2669 - 1.2712 (weekly Fibo Kijun + monthly Tenkan + daily Fibo Kijun).

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The recent uncertainties have led to the merger of key levels of the lower halves - 1.2857 (central pivot level) and 1.2858 (weekly long-term trend). To change the current situation, reliable consolidating outside the extremes of the current corrective movement is necessary - above a maximum of 1.3201 and a minimum of 1.2788. At the same time, intermediate resistance within the day can serve as 1.2908 (R1) - 1.2955 (R2) - 1.3006 (R3) today, while support for the classic pivot levels are located at 1.2810 (S1) - 1.2759 (S2) - 1.2712 (S3).

Divergences EUR / USD and GBP / USD (daily timeframe)

There are no new divergences.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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