Markets don't believe in Trump's impeachment; weak positivity supports CAD and contributes to the sales of JPY

On Thursday, economic data for the United States came out generally disappointing. The Philadelphia manufacturing index was only 0.3% against the expected 8%, while the number of unemployment claims rose 234 thousand against expectations of 225 thousand.

At the same time, news about Trump's impeachment has little effect on quotes, primarily because there are no chances for impeachment to pass through the Republican-controlled Senate.

In general, market sentiment remains positive. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said on Thursday that the first phase of a trade agreement with China could be signed in early January, which is seen by markets as a sign of positive momentum in the negotiations. Moreover, US stock exchanges closed in the green zone, Asian indices are trading higher on Friday morning, and gold is stable - all these signs point to a slightly positive background, which gives an advantage to profitable assets.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continues to feel confident, winning back a number of positive factors. These primarily include the reduction of global uncertainty, oil prices remain steadily above $ 60 per barrel, the dynamics of the yield spread of T-bills of the USA and Canada support the Canadian at least in the short term.

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On the other hand, disappointment from a labor market report released last week was temporary, with Loonie staying in a downward range and updating a 1.5-month high against the dollar. There are also other negative factors, for example, the updated USMCA trade agreement between the USA, Canada and Mexico was approved by the US House of Representatives. For Canada, its benefits are far from as obvious as for the USA, but political arguments in this case outweigh the economic ones.

In general, short-term factors affecting the loonie look positive. The Bank of Canada's lack of intent to cut interest rates in the foreseeable future supports bond yields, while OPEC +'s reduced production raises oil prices, which in total provides CAD short-term support. USD/CAD is targeted at 1.3042, and thus, a decline in support will mean the vulnerability of the annual minimum of 1.3015. Therefore, a further decline is still unlikely without a correctional rollback.

USD/JPY

Inflation in November rose by 0.5% y / y, which is better than 0.2% a month earlier, but still hopelessly far from the target level of 2%. At the same time, a number of publications, for example, Mizuho Bank, hold pessimistic views on the prospects for the Japanese economy, while the increase in consumer tax does not produce the expected effect.

Both Japan's imports and exports fell markedly in November - by 15.7% and 7.9%, respectively, activity in the manufacturing sector was steadily below 50p, and output did peak at levels lower than 5 years ago before launching a large-scale reform.

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On Thursday, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged, however, the sliding economy into a recession is becoming too obvious to ignore. As a result, there are more and more votes in favor of the Bank of Japan and the Abe government taking coordinated measures both in monetary and fiscal policies, since a drop in real interest rates threatens a large-scale banking crisis.

Now, USD/JPY continues to trade in a range. Most analysts are inclined to expect a breakthrough as global uncertainty is reduced. At the same time, it is obvious that the wave of positive in recent days has no serious basis, since it is based on political rather than economic factors.

If the positive is not offset by any unexpected factor, then USD/JPY breaking through the resistance zone 109.60 / 71 seems inevitable, even a weak dollar will not be able to prevent the yen from selling. However, if euphoria declines, then trading will continue in the range.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 20/12/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Iranian president proposed the creation of a Muslim cryptocurrency as one of many ways to oppose US economic dominance.

Speaking at an Islamic conference in Malaysia, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called on Muslim nations to strengthen financial and trade cooperation and to reduce dependence on the US dollar, according to a report by the financial media.

As Rouhani argued, US economic sanctions are "the main tools for dominating hegemony and intimidation" of other nations. Rouhani proposed establishing a special banking and financial system among Muslim nations that use local currencies to trade. Local reports confirm that Rouhani proposed creating a cryptocurrency as part of this effort.

"The Muslim world should develop measures to protect against the dominance of the US dollar and the US financial regime," he said.

The conference was also attended by leaders of major Muslim countries, including Turkey, Qatar and Malaysia, while Saudi Arabia and Pakistan withdrew from the conference.

The idea of the Iranian president has reportedly met with support from Malaysia itself, because the country's prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, supported the initiative, according to a local press release. The official noted that for the first time Iran and Turkey are considering the possibility of creating an alternative to the US dollar.

"We can use our own currencies or have a common currency," he said.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has clearly criticized the Islamic Cooperation Organization, arguing that the platform connecting the Muslim world has shown "lack of implementation." Erdogan also emphasized that Muslim countries should focus on Islamic financing, suggesting the creation of a special working group.

Technical Market Overview:

From the Elliott wave point of view, the last impulsive rally might be labeled as wave 1 of the new upward move. If it is so, then the most important level is the low of the Pin Bar located at $6,365 and this level can not be violated by bears. Currently, the market is developing the corrective structure and it is consolidating the recent gains in a narrow range located between the levels of $6,938 - $7,162. The moves up should be continued once the correction is over.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,020

WR2 - $7,786

WR1 - $7,335

Weekly Pivot - $7,151

WS1 - $6,714

WS2 - $6,500

WS3 - $6,073

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Positive statistics from the US will support the dollar, but not for long (we expect a local decline in the EUR/USD pair

The US dollar remains generally under pressure in the wake of two main factors. On the one hand, these are the problems of the impeachment of D. Trump by the democrats, and although few people believe in his success, he remains as a potential negativity in the minds of investors. On the other hand, oddly enough, it is still the result of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy.

Regarding the prospects for impeachment of Trump, we note that its effect on the dollar is happening through the dynamics of the yield of US government bonds of the US Treasury. They continue to show slurred movement. But the consequences of the December meeting of the regulator really turned out to be more important than anticipated.

At the same time, the Fed made it clear in the face of its leader J. Powell that it was stopping the rate cuts, which in theory should, on the contrary, stimulate the growth of the dollar, but this led to the opposite, which is to an increase in demand for risk and, as a result, to an increase in the purchase of shares of companies and other assets. As the consequences of the 2008-09 crisis showed, it is the dollar that remains an outsider in this situation, and it does not matter what kind of economic statistics come out, positive or not. In addition, the epic with the US-Chinese trade war is not over yet, which leads to a weakening dollar, but so far, only limited.

Today, investors will focus on the publication of US GDP data for the third quarter. It is assumed that it will maintain a growth rate of 2.1%, while the deflator will add up to 1.6% against 1.7%. We believe that such figures can give a positive impulse to demand for shares of American companies, as well as support the dollar, if they do not turn out worse, together with the values of the basic price index for personal consumption (RFE), which should also maintain a growth rate of 1.6%.

Another important supporting factor may be the data of the index of expectations and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for the month of December. It is assumed that the indicators will rise respectively to 89.7 points and 99.2 points, and their November values will be revised upward.

In general, we do not expect anything considering the situation in the currency exchange market, Moreover, after a surge in activity in the wake of the publication of statistics, its continuation is noticeable until the end of this year.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD remains under pressure. Strong US economic statistics may push the pair below 1.1110. Against this background, it can decline to 1.1050.

Gold quotes continue to balance, "not knowing" where to move. But today, they may be under pressure if economic data from America does not disappoint. Thus, we expect a limited decline to 1465.70.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 20/12/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another lower low after the battle of 61% Fibonacci retracement on the weekly timeframe has been lost by bulls. The bears have managed to push the prices below the technical support located at the level of 1.3101 and made a new local low at the level of 1.2988. Moreover, the price fell out of the old main channel as well, which additionally indicates the strength of the bearish move. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2962 and the immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3039 and 1.3101.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.4019

WR2 - 1.3748

WR1 - 1.3564

Weekly Pivot - 1.3301

WS1 - 1.3081

WS2 - 1.2836

WS3 - 1.2626

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up. All downward moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 20/12/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

After the breakout below the short-term trend line support (thick orange line), the EUR/USD pair is now consolidating in a narrow range located between the levels of 1.1106 -1.1140. The bulls are still in control of the market, at least at the lower timeframes, but bears have managed to make another lower low at the level of 1.1110 and in the near term they might push prices even lower towards the level of 1.1087. Although the higher timeframes trend remains bearish, the global investors must take into account, that the EUR/USD might be finally breaking up from the multi-month Ending Diagonal pattern.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1337

WR2 - 1.1267

WR1 - 1.1190

Weekly Pivot - 1.1121

WS1 - 1.1048

WS2 - 1.0978

WS3 - 1.0897

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.1040 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 12/20/2019 and trading recommendation

The pound declined quite confidently yesterday under the pressure of circumstances, and this process stopped only in the evening. However, the Bank of England has nothing to do with this. As expected, the refinancing rate was left unchanged, just as the distribution of votes did not change during the voting on this issue. Seven spoke in favor of maintaining the refinancing rate at the current level, while the remaining two in favor of lowering it. In fact, nothing has changed. In addition, the Bank of England made it clear to everyone once again that the refinancing rate will be reduced before the final withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union, that is, not after January 31, but immediately after the end of the transition period. But this is still a long way off, so there is nothing to worry about so far.

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Nevertheless, the pound experienced a certain shock from retail sales data, the growth rate of which slowed from 3.1% to 1.0%. Hysteria is caused by the fact that they predicted a slowdown of up to 2.1%, while the biggest optimists generally counted at 2.3%. But unfortunately, the reality was much worse. In fact, there has been a serious decline in consumer activity, which has never foreshadow anything good.

Retail Sales (UK):

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The decline of the pound was stopped only by American statistics, which turned out to be not less frightening. Therefore, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 18 thousand, while they predicted a decrease of 33 thousand. On the other hand, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits increased by 51 thousand, although it was supposed to increase by 14 thousand. As a result, investors saw their growth instead of the total reducing the number of applications for unemployment benefits. In addition, home sales in the secondary market decreased by 1.7%, instead of increasing by 0.8%.

Secondary Home Sales (United States):

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Today, we will see an attempt to repeat what happened yesterday. The pound will initially decline, under the pressure of a slowdown in GDP growth from 1.3% to 1.0%. But unlike yesterday, US statistics will not stop this process, but lead precisely to the growth of the pound, as in the United States a slowdown in GDP growth is projected, from only 2.3% to 2.1%.

GDP growth rate (United States):

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In terms of technical analysis, we see that the GBP / USD pair, as expected, managed to get closer to the psychological level of 1.3000, where it slowed down at a small amplitude. In fact, we got a full return of the quotation to the point of beginning, an earlier move, confirming the theory of the emotional component of the market.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that the pound sterling occupies rather high levels relative to the existing movement, which can be reflected in a further decrease in the medium term.

Thus, it is likely to assume that pressure from the side of the level of 1.3000 will locally hold back the quote, which can be reflected in a temporary fluctuation, within 1.2990 / 1.3040, where the behavior of the quote and the price fixing point should be carefully studied.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions are considered in case of price fixing higher than 1.3050.

- Short positions are considered in case of price fixing lower than 1.2985.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators, relative to all time sections, retain downward interest which confirms the dynamics of the market.

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD: The US passed a spending bill of 1.4 trillion dollars. The euro will remain under pressure, and the

The US dollar strengthened against the euro and the pound after the news that the US Senate approved the first of two spending packages to avoid government shutdown was released. The spending bill was passed after significant changes were made to the pension system. The White House said that President Trump would approve measures to provide nearly $1.4 trillion in spending.

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The document states that in addition to the main items, expenses will be increased by adding 3.1% to the salaries of military and civil servants of the Federal government. An additional $ 425 million has also been allocated to ensure security during the elections, which will be held next fall. About $ 1.38 billion was sent to build a fence along the U.S. border with Mexico, which remains a major contentious issue. Let me remind you that at the end of last year, the problem of financing the construction of the wall on the southern border was the longest suspension of government activity in the history of the United States.

As for yesterday's fundamental statistics on the United States, the dollar was not generally affected. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time has also fallen, confirming the healthy state of the labor market.

The U.S. Department of Labor reports that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of December 8-14 fell by 18,000 to 234,000, contrasting economists' expectation of 227,000. The moving average of applications also rose by 1,500 to 225,500. As for the number of secondary applications, from December 1 to 7, it increased by 51 000 and amounted to 1.72 million.

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The good news for Donald Trump was the report on the current account deficit of the US balance of payments, which decreased in the 3rd quarter. This characterizes the degree of trade and financial flows between the United States and other countries. According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the deficit amounted to 124.09 billion US dollars against the 125.21 billion dollars in the 2nd quarter of 2019. This is in contrast to economists' expectation of $ 121.9 billion in Q3.

First of all, the reduction of imports of goods and the growth of investment income contributed to the reduction of the deficit.

Meanwhile, data on manufacturing activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia did not impress traders. According to the report, while economists had expected the figure to be 8 points, the PMI in December fell to 0.3 points from 10.4 points in November.

U.S. home sales in the secondary market also fell in November, as limited supply is holding back buyers, in spite of credit availability. Seasonality also affects the decline in sales, as a report by the National Association of realtors indicated that sales in the secondary housing market in November 2019 fell by 1.7% compared to the previous month and amounted to 5.35 million homes per year. Economists had expected sales to fall 0.4 percent. On the other hand, sales in November rose 2.7%, compared with the same period the previous year,

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Data from the Conference Board also did not have much impact on the volatility of the euro. The report showed that the index of leading indicators in November was 111.6 points, whereas economists predicted that the index will grow by 0.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, after an unsuccessful attempt to update Wednesday's highs, the pressure on risky assets returned immediately after the bears pushed the trading instrument below the level of 1.1140. So far, this range remains to be a problem for the bulls, and only its breakdown will increase the probability of the further growth of EUR/USD in the area of highs 1.1170 and 1.1210. However, the pressure on risk assets is likely to continue. The breakout of the 1.1110 level will increase the pressure on the euro, which will push the pair to the lows of 1.1080 and 1.1040. A larger movement within the current range is unlikely, as traders do not have clear guidance from central banks by the end of the year, and much will depend on the incoming fundamental data.

GBP/USD

Pressure on the British pound will gradually weaken after yesterday's statements of the Bank of England on the situation with interest rates. In addition, today's data on consumer confidence in the UK provided little support to the pair. The increase in confidence was directly related to optimism about the situation in the economy, which should improve next year. According to the report of the research company GfK UK, consumer confidence index in December this year rose by three points to -11 points.

Growth was noted in sub-indexes of the expectations of large and personal finances.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, the pressure on the pound is clearly slowing down, as today's UK GDP data may be the final chord for profit-taking on short positions gained by major players after the elections of the UK Parliament. Major support levels are seen in the area of 1.2890 and 1.2950.

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Trading plan on EUR/USD for December 20. The euro is under pressure.

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Although the issue is postponed probably until January, the impeachment of Trump in the US remains to be an important news.

Meanwhile, Britain expects first parliamentary vote on Brexit.

Today, December 20, the United States will release an inflation report at 14:30 London time.

EUR/USD continues to remain in a narrow consolidation near the resistance line 1.1200. New growth remains possible.

Keep buying from 1.1035, stop at breakeven.

It is possible to buy at a breakthrough of 1.1200 up.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, December 20,2019

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Consumer Confidence, Current Account, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German GfK Consumer Climate from the eurozone are due today. The US will release such economic data as Treasury Currency Report, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Final GDP Price Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q, So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1175. Strong Resistance: 1.1169. Original Resistance: 1.1158. Inner Sell Area: 1.1147.Target Inner Area: 1.1121. Inner Buy Area: 1.1095. Original Support: 1.1084. Strong Support: 1.1073. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1067. (Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, December 20,2019

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The National Core CPI y/y from Japan is due. The US will release such economic data as Treasury Currency Report, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Final GDP Price Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:109.91. Resistance. 2:109.69. Resistance. 1:109.45. Support. 1:109.21. Support. 2:109.00. Support. 3:108.78. (Disclaimer)

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on December 20. Buyers are not satisfied with the statements of the Bank of England,

To open long positions on GBP/ USD, you need:

Yesterday's statements by the Bank of England that the rate can be both raised and lowered if necessary, and uncertainty in this matter returned the pressure on the British pound, and the breakthrough of the level of 1.3065 is expected to lead to a new wave of decline. At the moment, buyers need to protect the support of 1.3000, and this will have to be done with any data on the UK economy. A good report can allow you to climb to the resistance of 1.3065, which will lead to the demolition of several stop orders of sellers and a larger upward correction in the area of the maximum of 1.3134, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of a further decline below the level of 1.3000 on GDP data, I recommend returning to long positions only after the test of the minimum of 1.2952, or a rebound from the support of 1.2896.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, the bears showed activity after trying to return GBP/USD to the resistance level of 1.3134, which I paid attention to in my review, and the statements of the Bank of England pushed the pound below 1.3065. At the moment, sellers will defend the resistance of 1.3065, and the formation of a false breakout in this area, together with bad data on the UK economy, will be a direct signal to open short positions. Another equally important task for sellers will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the support of 1.3000, which will collapse the pound to the lows of 1.2952 and 1.2896, where I recommend taking the profits. With the pair rising above 1.3065 on good GDP data, it is best to return to short positions on the rebound from the high of 1.3134.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible further decline in the pound.

Bollinger Bands

Support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2965, while growth will be limited to the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.3080.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. The chart is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. The chart is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Convergence / Divergence of moving averages) - EMA Period 12. Slow EMA Period 26. SMA Period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on December 20. The breakthrough of the lower border of the triangle will increase

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday, the bears once again did not let the pair above the resistance of 1.1132, and the same task of the bulls today is to return to this range. Data on the consumer climate and consumer spending index of the eurozone countries can help with this. Good indicators will return EUR/USD to 1.1132, which will lead to a breakdown of the downward triangle and a larger upward correction in the area of highs of 1.1172 and 1.1198, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of lack of activity among buyers above the level of 1.1132, I recommend to postpone long positions until the update of the minimum of 1.1090, and in the case of a larger fall in the euro, after the data on the US economy, it is best to consider new purchases on the rebound from the area of 1.1041.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers are actively defending the resistance of 1.1132. Yesterday's data on US economy made it possible to form a triangle and break of its lower boundary, which coincides with intermediate resistance around 1.1110, will increase the pressure on the euro, which will bring the pair to a minimum of 1.1090, and then open the way to a more distant target in the area of 1.1041, where I recommend fixing the profit. An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.1132, which may occur in the first half of the day after the release of statistics on the eurozone countries, will also be an additional signal to open short positions in the euro. The main task is to prevent the renewal of yesterday's maximum, as such a scenario will lead to a return of demand for the euro. In this case, short positions are best postponed until the update of this week's highs at 1.1172, or after the update of the monthly resistance at 1.1198.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1140 will lead to the growth of the European currency. The breakdown of the lower border, which coincides with the support of 1.1110, will increase the pressure on the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. The chart is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. The chart is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Convergence / Divergence of moving averages) - EMA Period 12. Slow EMA Period 26. SMA Period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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GBP/JPY broke key support, potential for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 142.875

Reason for Entry:

previous breakout level, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 141.020

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal overlap support

Stop Loss: 144.223

Reason for Stop loss:

horizontal swing high resistance

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EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.11073

Reason for Entry: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 1.11868

Reason for Take Profit:

horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss: 1.10616

Reason for Stop loss:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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USD/JPY approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 109.953

Reason for Entry: 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 107.898

Reason for Take Profit: 50% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 110.654

Reason for Stop loss:

horizontal swing high resistance

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The outlook on EUR/USD for December 20, 2019

EUR/USD

On Thursday, as the news of the lower house of the US Congress' decision to impeach President Donald Trump was released, the euro rose by 32 points. However, since an impeachment requires 2/3 of votes, the day closed with a growth of 7 points, as it is quite obvious that the Senate, which is majorly consisted of Republicans, would not allow such situation to happen. AS of now, we are waiting for the price at the first target of 1.1060, on the nested line of the blue descending price channel.

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On the four-hour chart, yesterday's growth stopped at the Kruzenshtern line, and the price turned down from it. Marlin is in negative territory, and there are no signs of a price reversal.

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Today, the final estimate of the US/GDP data for the 3rd quarter will be released. The data on personal income and consumer spending for November is forecasted to be unchanged at 2.1%, income at 0.3% and spending at 0.4%. We are waiting for the further fall of the euro.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on December 20, 2019

GBP / USD

On Thursday, the pound fell by 70 points, almost coming close to the consolidation range of November which is 1.2820-1.2965. At the same time, the MACD line and the Fibonacci level of 161.8% are waiting for the price at the closest target level of 1.2965. Moreover, the support is strong, and breaking through it will give the market confidence in breaking through the entire accumulation range, by reducing to the second target 1.2820 at the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. Next, we are waiting for a successful consolidation with going out of this range and testing the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price of 1.2730 as well as another break through to 1.2582 - the top of September 20. Meanwhile, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the zone of a declining trend.

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On the four-hour chart, Marlin is not generating a strong convergence. Thus, the price will rise slightly probably before the attack at 1.2965.

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The correction may be based on today's data on the UK balance of payments for the 3rd quarter (forecast -15.7 billion pounds against -25.2 billion in the 2nd quarter) for GDP over the same period - a forecast of 0.3%, as in the 2nd quarter. Later, data on US GDP for the 3rd quarter will be released in the final assessment, the forecast is 2.1% (unchanged) and data on personal income and expenditure of consumers for November: income forecast 0.3%, expenses 0.4%. As we can see, the forecasts are strong enough to expect an attack on the pound. The only question is whether large players want this on Friday.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on December 20

Forecast for December 20:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1261, 1.1239, 1.1198, 1.1156, 1.1134, 1.1103, 1.1078 and 1.1046. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the ascending structure on November 29. Meanwhile, consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.1134 - 1.1156. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the level of 1.1198. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1200 will allow you to count on movement towards a potential target - 1.1261, upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the range of 1.1261 - 1.1239.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.1103 - 1.1078. The breakdown of the latter value will have the downward structure development on December 13. In this case, the potential target is 1.1046.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 29, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1134 Take profit: 1.1154

Buy: 1.1158 Take profit: 1.1196

Sell: 1.1103 Take profit: 1.1080

Sell: 1.1076 Take profit: 1.1046

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3264, 1.3193, 1.3146, 1.3035, 1.2988 and 1.2901. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of December 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.3035 - 1.2988. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to count on movement to a potential target - 1.2901, when this level is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3146 - 1.3193. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.3264. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending cycle of December 13

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3146 Take profit: 1.3190

Buy: 1.3195 Take profit: 1.3264

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2986 Take profit: 1.2903

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9845, 0.9823, 0.9805, 0.9792, 0.9768, 0.9753 and 0.9732. Here, we determined the subsequent goals from the local descending structure on December 12. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9768 - 0.9753. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to a potential target - 0.9732. We expect a pullback to the top from this level.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9792 - 0.9805. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 0.9823. This level is a key support for the downward structure of November 29. Its passage in price will lead to the development of the upward structure. Here, the target is 0.9845.

The main trend is the local structure for the bottom of December 12

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9792 Take profit: 0.9803

Buy : 0.9806 Take profit: 0.9823

Sell: 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9755

Sell: 0.9751 Take profit: 0.9733

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.52, 110.20, 109.96, 109.62, 109.23, 109.08 and 108.85. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the top of December 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.62. In this case, the target is 109.96. We expect a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 109.96 - 110.20. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.52. Upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 109.23 - 109.08. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 108.85. This level is the key support for the upward structure from December 12.

Main trend: initial conditions for the top of December 12

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.63 Take profit: 109.96

Buy : 109.98 Take profit: 110.20

Sell: 109.23 Take profit: 109.08

Sell: 109.06 Take profit: 108.85

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3256, 1.3217, 1.3196, 1.3146, 1.3118, 1.3094 and 1.3034. Here, we continue to monitor the long-term descending structure of December 3. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3118 - 1.3094. In this case, the potential target is 1.3034. When this value is reached, we expect a rollback to the top.

A correction can be made possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.3160. Here, the target is 1.3196. The range 1.3196 - 1.3217 is the key support for the downward structure. Its passage at the price will be conducive to the development of the upward movement. Here, the potential goal is 1.3256.

The main trend is the long-term downward structure of December 3

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3160 Take profit: 1.3196

Buy : 1.3218 Take profit: 1.3252

Sell: 1.3118 Take profit: 1.3096

Sell: 1.3092 Take profit: 1.3040

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6957, 0.6932, 0.6900, 0.6857, 0.6832, 0.6808 and 0.6791. Here, the price registered the local potential of December 18 to continue the upward trend. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6900. In this case, the target is 0.6932. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6957. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

On December 18, the key support for the upward structure is the level of 0.6857 , its breakdown will favor the development of a downward movement, here the first goal is 0.6832. As a potential value for the bottom, while we consider the level of 0.6808, near which we expect consolidation.

The main trend is the local potential for the top of December 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6900 Take profit: 0.6930

Buy: 0.6934 Take profit: 0.6956

Sell : 0.6857 Take profit : 0.6835

Sell: 0.6830 Take profit: 0.6808

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.87, 122.39, 122.04, 121.80, 121.38, 121.00 and 120.52. Here, we expect the development of the downward structure of December 13. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is possibly after the breakdown of the level of 121.38. Here, the first goal is 121.00. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 121.00 will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 120.52.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 121.80 - 122.04. The breakdown of the last value will have the subsequent development of an upward trend, where the first goal is 122.39. This level is the key resistance for the top.

The main trend is the rising structure of December 9, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.41 Take profit: 122.85

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 121.38 Take profit: 121.05

Sell: 121.00 Take profit: 120.60

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 144.52, 143.48, 142.86, 141.96, 141.40, 140.31 and 139.34. Here, we follow the development of the downward cycle of December 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 141.96 - 141.40. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement to the level of 140.31. Price consolidation is expected near this level, as well as a pullback in correction. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 139.34.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 142.86 - 143.48. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 144.52. This level is the key support for the descending cycle of December 13.

The main trend is the descending cycle of December 13

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 142.86 Take profit: 143.45

Buy: 143.50 Take profit: 144.50

Sell: 141.96 Take profit: 141.42

Sell: 141.36 Take profit: 140.35

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. December 19. Results of the day. The report on retail sales shows failure. The pound received excellent incentives

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 179p-354p-101p-234p-75p.

Average volatility over the last 5 days: 189p (high).

The GBP / USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Thursday after a minimal correction. In previous articles, we have already pointed out that today, the pound can only be expected to resume falling, as there were no chances that the macroeconomic statistics would suddenly begin to improve in the Foggy Albion. In the same way, there are chances that the Bank of England will suddenly begin to shift its rhetoric and mood in the direction of tightening. In practice, it turned out that the Bank of England has not changed its "dovish" attitude, which is still expressed in its willingness to lower the key rate right now, but members of the monetary Committee fear that they will deprive themselves of one of the most important and powerful tools for influencing monetary policy right before the "divorce" with the European Union, followed by long and difficult negotiations with Brussels on a trade agreement, which could end with Brexit without any agreements. This means that potentially, in the future, stimulation of the UK economy will not be needed more than once, allowing the British regulator to simply use a trump card in the form of an interest rate cut to more difficult times. As for the report on retail sales, it failed, as expected. Experts already expected a decline in the growth rate to 2.1% in annual terms, and a monthly increase of 0.3%. In practice, it turned out that the annual growth rate fell to + 1.0%, and in monthly terms, sales volumes decreased by 0.6%. It is clear that such data can not be called anything other than "failure". Thus, the British currency and the UK economy, at the end of today, remained in its usual state. We can continue to insist that the fair rate of the British pound against the dollar is much lower than current price values. In the last two months, when the pound showed almost recoilless growth, we thought that it was, to put it mildly, strange. It is clear that this strengthening of the British currency was justified fundamentally, from the faith of traders in the victory of the Conservatives and the early completion of the Brexit procedure. However, as the election passed, the euphoria subsided, and traders returned to the harsh everyday life. And this life is the macroeconomic statistics from the UK failing from time to time. Boris Johnson is ready not to sign any agreements with the European Union, making the British economy continue to slow down and suffer from all that is happening. At the same time, the US economy continues to show signs of acceleration and stable growth, which is in favor with the US currency. If we add here the monetary policies of the Bank of England (which is on the verge of lowering rates) and the fed (which is not going to lower the rate in the near future), it is obvious that the US monetary policy is stronger.

Meanwhile, Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon has written to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson asking for powers to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence. We have repeatedly noted that the Scottish people were initially against Brexit, against any plans of Boris Johnson, and wanted to stay in the European Union. However, now that it has become clear with almost 100% probability that the "divorce" will take place, Scotland wants to separate from the UK. The problem though is that Boris Johnson's government is not obliged to endorse such an initiative especially after in 2014, a similar referendum was already held in Scotland and a majority of vote was taken on remaining in the UK. In a letter to Boris Johnson, Nicola Sturgeon justified the country's desire for a referendum and said that "last week, Scotland made it clear that it does not want a Tory government led by Boris Johnson to take us out of the European Union." However, Boris Johnson himself, of course, is not going to support the referendum. He has previously stated with a fair degree of cynicism that " the referendum has already been held in 2014, its results should be respected, and such an event can only happen once in a century." Sturgeon told Johnson: "Everyone in Scotland knows that a second referendum on independence will take place, and the victory of the Scottish party in the election clearly indicates that we want to determine our own future, and not allow Boris Johnson to impose one way or another on us." Thus, relations between Scotland and the UK could deteriorate significantly, especially since Nicola Sturgeon's plan to stay in the European Union is supported by the Brussels, which will provide all possible assistance and support to the Scots.

Trading recommendations:

GBP / USD continues to form a new downward trend. The price easily overcame the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and the first support level of 1.3083. Therefore, at the moment, the targets for selling the pound are at the levels of 1.2988 (the level of average volatility on December 19 based on the last 30 trading days) and 1.2833. It is recommended to return to purchases of the British pound not earlier than the reverse consolidation of the price above the Kijun-sen line, which is clearly not expected in the coming days.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen - red line.

Kijun-sen - blue line.

Senkou span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator: 3 yellow lines.

MACD: The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators ' window.

Support/resistance levels classic: Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

The pivot-level: Yellow solid line.

Levels of support/resistance, taking into account the volatility: Gray dotted lines without price symbols.

Possible variants of the price movement: Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. December 19. Results of the day. What needs to happen for the Senate to approve the impeachment of Donald Trump?

4 hour time-frame

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 51p - 93p - 35p - 46p - 45p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 54p (average).

On Thursday, December 19, the currency pair EUR/USD slightly corrected, after which the data on the results of the meeting of the Bank of England together with the pound fell down again. Although the fall of the Euro currency on Thursday is not too strong, this is enough to keep the new downward trend. In addition, the pair has fixed below the Ichimoku cloud on the current bar, which significantly enhances the "dead cross". Thus, the probability of a further hike down of the euro/dollar pair significantly increased. During today, not a single important macroeconomic report has been published in the States and the European Union, so market participants focused on a very high-profile topic - the impeachment of Donald Trump. We would immediately like to say that no one speaks, but impeachment is serious. Impeachment, like a vote of no confidence, means that the president's actions are not pleasing, which also means that other political forces governing the country are dissatisfied. Yes, the opposition is present in any Parliament, in any government, but there is never a vote of no confidence out of the blue, let impeachment alone. Therefore, no matter who says that the case is "fabricated" by the Democrats, that their main goal is to remove Trump from the presidential race in 2020, and there is no smoke without fire. Even Boris Johnson, who seemed to be opposed by the entire Parliament of Great Britain, who fought with the Prime Minister through the courts, blocked all his proposals and bills, did not fall under a vote of no confidence. Trump became the third president in the history of the United States, which was impeached. However, only in the House of Representatives so far. Now, the case will be put to a vote in the Senate, and 67 out of 100 senators will have to vote in favor for Donald Trump to become the first president in US history to be removed from office. The House of Representatives had previously impeached Andrew Johnson (1868) and Bill Clinton (1998), both of whom were subsequently acquitted by the Senate. Two cases in a 250-year history. Thus, this further confirms the fact that impeachments in the United States are not scattered just like that. However, 53 out of 100 senators are Republicans, so Trump will most likely be sentenced. Moreover, he will remain at the helm of the country, and the only question will be: how much will his political ratings suffer from the impeachment investigation ahead of next year's presidential election?

However, the theoretical chances of Trump resigning by the Senate still remain. The further impeachment procedure will be as follows: a trial will be held a little later (the date is still unknown) in which 100 senators will play the role of a jury, while the head of the trial will be headed by the chairman of the US Supreme Court. Of course, new details of the investigation may surface during this "trial", witnesses and participants in the case may come up with new information. For example, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he would be happy to testify in the Senate while considering the impeachment of President Donald Trump, if required by law and the situation. Thus, we are almost certain that there will still be new information on the "Trump case". At the same time, it should be further understood that the Senate has the right not to explain its decision, and any evidence of Trump's guilt is rejected and deemed insufficient. Nevertheless, their decision should still be consistent with the charges and evidence. If there will be undeniable evidence of Trump's guilt during the new trial, which will be made available to the whole country and the whole world, then the Senate will not be able to simply take and vote against impeachment. If this happens, then the confidence in the Republicans may be lost for many years, as the Americans will understand that the Senate votes against impeachment solely on a party basis, that is, it is unfair. Thus, there is a nominal 10% probability that Trump will still be dismissed. In this regard, everything will depend on new information on the case of abuse of power and obstruction of the work of Congress.

Today can be described as weakly volatile and almost flat, despite the fall of the European currency at the American trading session. From the maximum to the minimum of the day, there are only 34 points, so this indicator does not reach the average volatility, and not one of the levels of volatility is likely to be reached today. Tomorro, annual data on GDP will be published in the United States, which are potentially important information, so more active trading of the euro / dollar pair is possible on Friday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair EUR/USD continues the downward trend. Thus, short positions with a target of 1.1062 are now relevant. At the same time, the pair only now overcame the Ichimoku cloud, while the consolidation under it is not too confident. Thus, we recommend trading in lower lots in small lots. In addition, it is recommended to buy a pair of euro / dollar not earlier than the back fixation of the bulls above the Kijun-sen line with the first target resistance level of 1.1196.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. "Hawkish notes" from the Bank of England and farewell speech by Queen Elizabeth II

The pound is trapped in the grip of conflicting fundamental factors. In the morning, the British currency received unexpected support from the Bank of England, which allowed an increase in the interest rate next year in spite of everything. However, it was already in the afternoon that the GBP/USD bears were able to seize the initiative for the pair, against the backdrop of the speech of Queen Elizabeth II in the walls of the British Parliament. Brexit's political prospects are again worrying market participants, although parliament has not yet had time to approve the deal, and London and Brussels have not even begun preliminary negotiations as part of the transition period. But traders live "the day after tomorrow", evaluating the prospects for concluding a trade agreement. Thus, the comments of top British politicians only increase nervousness about this, overshadowing the influence of all other fundamental factors.

Nevertheless, let's start everything with the December meeting of the Bank of England. To the surprise of most traders, the meeting of the members of the English regulator took place on a major note. The central bank could increase pressure on the pound by allowing interest rates to decline early next year. Recent macroeconomic reports have shown a slowdown in key indicators, so the Central Bank had appropriate arguments to soften its rhetoric. However, the Bank of England provided an opportunity for the British economy to get out of the "red zone" on its own, without additional incentives in the form of QE or lower rates. The risk of a "hard" Brexit has decreased to zero, the probability of approval of the transaction is almost 100 percent, and before the end of the transition period more than a year. Such conditions allow the English regulator to take a wait-and-see attitude, even despite the decline in key economic indicators.

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At the same time, the "dovish wing" of the Committee did not intensify, contrary to the fears of some analysts: only Saunders and Haskel voted to reduce the rate, preserving the alignment of forces in the form of a ratio of 0-2-7. Just a day before the meeting, rumors appeared in the market that Gertjan would join them. But in the end, these assumptions were not confirmed. And this fact would certainly have put significant pressure on the pound, although his voice would not have been decisive in any case.

In general, the rhetoric of the English regulator was restrained and optimistic. The Bank of England acknowledged that it is too early to talk about the impact of the results of parliamentary elections on the country's economy. The members of the Committee even doubt that the political uncertainty after December 12 was weakened - apparently, they had in mind the ups and downs that had begun regarding the transition period. Further prospects for monetary policy are still unclear: the Bank of England promised to "support" the British economy if the trade conflict between the US and China continues to have a negative impact on the global economy, and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit continues.

On the other hand, regulator members did not specify exactly how they intend to do this, however, most analysts are inclined to the option of lowering the interest rate (the option of additional incentives is less likely). On the other hand, if the above risks will not happen, then the English regulator allows a "smooth and restrained" tightening of monetary policy parameters. This means that the Central Bank does not exclude one round of rate hikes if the trade war does not develop, and the negotiation process between London and Brussels will take place in a constructive manner within the transition period.

Against the backdrop of such prospects, the pound has risen in price all over the market (although temporarily) - traders clearly did not expect to hear such "hawkish" notes from the Bank of England members in the accompanying communique, although the remaining rhetoric of the Central Bank are no longer so optimistic. In particular, the Bank of England revised its forecast for British GDP growth in the fourth quarter towards a deterioration - from + 0.2% to + 0.1% q / q. At the same time, the Central Bank acknowledged that the investment climate in the country could significantly improve in the near future, as many companies and enterprises will return to those investment projects that were frozen due to the risks of the "hard" Brexit.

As for inflation, the regulator predicts a further decline, which should reach its peak in the spring of next year, mainly due to cheaper energy. In turn, the labor market does not bother Central Bank members so far, although they have recognized the fact that wage growth has slowed down (taking into account premiums, wages have grown by only 3.2% - the weakest dynamics since April this year). Nevertheless, the cost of labor, according to regulator members, is growing at rates that exceed levels that are consistent with medium-term inflation targets. The Bank of England also noted "certain signs of recovery" in the global economy, while focusing on easing tensions between the United States and China.

Thus, the results of the December meeting of the English regulator were in favor of the British currency. The rhetoric of the members of the Committee, of course, cannot be called too "hawkish." But against the background of recent releases, the tone of the BA accompanying statement was quite optimistic.

However, the pound could not resist its conquered positions. The fact is that Queen Elizabeth II delivered an opening speech at the opening ceremony of the new parliament session today. She announced a government program that, inter alia, stated that the transition period should end before January 31, 2020. This scenario, according to the Queen, is a priority for the new government. The Queen's speech is a reflection of the course of the Prime Minister, that is, in this case, Boris Johnson. Thus, the market became convinced again that the conservative leader was going to take an extremely tough position in the upcoming negotiations with Europe, especially against the background of an absolute majority in parliament. Now, the pound has come under pressure although we are talking about fairly distant events.

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From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair is located on the midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart and has the potential for further decline - up to 1.2780, that is, to the lower line of the above indicator, coinciding with the upper border of the Kumo cloud on the same time-frame.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Towards new horizons: gold holds hope for growth

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Gold has been trading in a narrow range - $ 1,450– $ 1,490 per ounce over the past six weeks.

The precious metal, which looked doomed only two months ago after a rollback from a comfortable level of $ 1,500, demonstrates unwavering.

Gold without losses survived three events that were supposed to play into the hands of sellers:

1. Following the December meeting, the US Central Bank decided to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Precious metal usually strengthens amid falling rates, especially if it is sharp enough and can cause a massive redistribution of dollar positions in favor of gold.

2. In the early parliamentary elections in the UK, the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson won a landslide victory, which opened the door for the final exit of Foggy Albion from the European Union. Over the past three years, gold has served as a risk hedge against the backdrop of the country's useless attempts to leave the EU.

3. Washington did not introduce $ 160 billion in new Chinese import duties on December 15. This year, the trade war between the US and the Celestial Empire influenced the dynamics of gold, as the precious metal to a greater extent than the Fed and Brexit - along with the US dollar - which was used for hedging risks associated with the conflict of two world powers.

Can there still be a rise in prices before the end of the year?

According to experts, the fact that gold did not crash against the backdrop of these events makes it the absolute winner and raises the question: is the precious metal preparing for the latest increase in 2019? Does it have enough strength and endurance to get to the $ 1,500 mark?

According to statistics from recent years, there are no significant events in the gold market from the middle to the end of December. However, the cost of precious metals increased in December by 4% at the end of last year.

At the same time, some investment companies will buy assets by the end of the year in their portfolios that have shown good growth dynamics during the year. Gold is one of those. Thus, this will become a supporting factor for precious metals.

However, even without rising to the level of $ 1,500, gold is preparing to complete the current year with an increase of 15%.

What to expect from precious metals in 2020?

"Gold retained its shine, because the Fed's reaction to the incoming data remains asymmetric: the regulator will either lower rates in the event that US economic growth disappoints or maintain its current rate if the latter recovers, which ultimately will continue to exert pressure at real rates. This strengthens our opinion that gold growth will continue in 2020, "said representatives of TD Securities.

ABN Amro experts believe that in 2020 a favorable situation will develop for gold.

"Weak economic growth in the eurozone and a slowdown in the US economy will be important factors in supporting precious metals. In addition, the volume of government bonds with a negative yield will increase, which will also positively affect the value of gold." they said.

According to the forecast of ABN Amro, in 2020 the average price of gold will be $ 1,500 per ounce, although it can rise to $ 1,575 in the 4th quarter.

"Next year, smart money will continue to sit in gold as insurance, as there will be many disappointing factors in the global economy," says Mitsubishi Bank.

"We still see growth potential in the gold market, as increased political instability and economic problems will be the main supporting factors for the price of gold." analysts of Goldman Sachs said.

"Gold cannot fully replace government bonds in the investment portfolio, but to have up to 10% of precious metals has always been, is and will be a reasonable decision" they added.

As a result, the bank expects that the price of gold will rise to $ 1,600 per ounce over the next 12 months.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Take profit on the pound

Good evening, dear traders! Congratulations to those who used the trading idea for selling GBP / USD from 12/18/19.

Let me remind you the sales plan:

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Development of the plan:

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The impulse was the news:

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com