EUR/NZD analysis for January 14, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. The price has tested the level of 1.5327 in an ultra high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe strong rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5290 so buying at this stage looks risky.If the price breaks the level of 1,5290 in a high volume, we may see a potential testing of Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5435. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5246


R3: 1.5357


Support levels:


S1: 1.5110


S2: 1.5067


S3: 1.5000


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair at this stage since we have weak demand in the background.


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Gold analysis for January 14, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1,224.78 in a volume below the average. Gold went into weak bearish correction. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in a volume below the average, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. We may expect testing the levels of 1,255.00-1,265.00 in next period. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows. We got support level at the price of 1,222.00 (swing high like support).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,241.96


R2: 1,246.00


R3: 1,252.27


Support levels :


S1: 1,228.90


S2: 1,224.86


S3: 1,218.13


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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#USDX technical analysis for January 14, 2015

The Dollar index continues to consolidate. There is no clear trend as the index moves mainly sideways inside a trading range between 92.40 and 91.70. Soon we will see a breakout either towards 93 or towards 91.


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Blue line = support


Red line = resistance


The Dollar index is still between the short-term resistance and support levels or, otherwise, it is forming a cotracting triangle. Soon we will have a breakout and we can then start a new short-term move. Breaking above 92.40 will be a bullish signal. On the other hand, a break below 91.70 will be a bearish signal. The short-term upside target is 93 and the short-term downside target is 91.


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The weekly chart remains fully bullish. If Dollar were to weaken now, a pullback towards 90 would be justified. The 90 level is the first important weekly level where I would expect a weekly pullback to an end. For now, the weekly candle does not imply any downward reversal but bulls should be very cautious in case 91.70 fails to hold.


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Gold technical analysis for January 14, 2015

Gold price has reversed lower after reaching $1,245 and making a higher high than the one made in the early December. Despite a higher high sellers have pushed the precious metal back below $1,230. If this is a fake breakout, the reversal will be destructive and we could see new lows, specially if support at $1,200 fails to hold.


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Gold price short-term trend remains bullish. The Ichimoku cloud is below the current price and provides support at $1,200. Short-term support is found at $1,215 and short-term resistance at $1,245. A new higher high above $1,245 will confirm bullish trend, so that we should expect gold price to reach $1,260-70. If, on the other hand, gold price breaks below $1,200, we could say that the short-lived breakout was fake and prices are going to fall towards the lows at $1,130.


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Gold price as shown on the daily chart above is pulling back inside the triangle. This could be a fake breakout. If this is true, we should expect gold price to move sharply towards $1,180 and then towards the recent lows at $1,130. If, on the other hand, gold manages to break above $1,245, then the bullish scenario with $1,270 as the first target will be preferred.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 14, 2015

General overview for 14/01/2015 07:05 CET


Despite the striking price/momentum divergence, the market is still making lower lows. So, the Elliott wave count has been adjusted to the new data. On larger time frame, the outlook hasn't changed yet and the preferred count is still the same: the complex corrective structure labeled as WXY brown, that consist of an irregular flat cycle, double three cycle and, at last, zig-zag cycle. The projected level now for the corrective cycle to be completed is at the level of 137.48. Invalidation of the larger scale impulsive cycle comes with the level of 134.12 violation (wave 1 red and wave 2 red overlaps). As long as this level is not violated, the bias remains bullish.


Support/Resistance:


137.17 - WS2


137.49 - 78%Fibo


137.36 - WS1


138.88 - Intraday Resistance


139.45 - Intraday Resistance


140.09 - Purple Impulsive Count Invalidation Level


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening the buy limit orders at the level of 137.50, with SL below the level of 135.91 and TP at the level of 144.11 (longer term TP, more suitable for swingtraders).


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 14 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The correction in blue wave iv continues to unfold as expected. We continue to look for a move closer to the 38.2% corrective target at 1.5351 before blue wave v lower towards 1.4912 is expected to take over. Short-term support is found at 1.5263, which ideally will protect the downside for the move higher to 1.5351 to end blue wave iv and set the stage for blue wave v lower.


Trading recommendation:


We are looking to sell EUR at 1.5320 with a stop at 1.5420.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 14 - 2015

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Technical summary:


The decline has now extended beyond the 70.7% corrective target, which is a matter of concern. That said, if our count is correct the decline from the 149.84 to is a wave two and second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, so we have to be patient and look for signs of reversal. We have replaced the former channel with a pitchfork and as can be seen on the chart, we are now at the pitchfork support line at the same time the extended wave c of y is now 300% of the length of wave a of y and finally a positive divergence is seen on the indicators, which means a bottom could be nearby. However to confirm the bottom, we need a break above minor resistance at 138.91 and more importantly a break above resistance at 140.51. As long as minor resistance at 138.91 protects the upside, the trend lower is firmly in place.


Trading recommendation:


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 14, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY has dropped below 139.00 levels, yet again stopping us out. The pair is seen trading at sub 138.00 levels for now and immediate support could be seen at the 137.50 levels, which is the fibonacci 0.786 support of the rally from 134.00 to 149.80 respectively. It is recommended to remain flat for now and watch out for a reaction at 137.50 levels. Immediate support is seen at 137.50, followed by 137.00, 136.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at 140.50, followed by 141.50, 145.50 and higher up respectively. Bulls need to break above 140.50 levels at least, to regain control back now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for January 14, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has pushed higher to 1.5475 levels as seen on the 4H chart view depicted here, just shy of the interim resistance at 1.5520 levels. It is recommended to book profits on long positions now and remain flat for a while. Aggressive traders might look to initiate 50% short positions at current price, risk remains at 1.5530 levels. The pair might dip lower below 1.5250 levels, forming a gartley, before resuming the uptrend. A break below 1.5350 would surely confirm the probability of pushing lower into 1.5200 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.5350 levels, followed by 1.5250 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5520 levels respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Book profits on long positions and remain flat. Aggressive trade setup could be to initiate 50% short positions, stop at 1.5530, the target is at 1.5200.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for January 14, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver reached $17.20 levels before pulling back again towards $16.80 levels as seen on the 4H chart view depicted here. The metal should be well supported around $16.50/60 levels as immediate trend line support and past resistance turned support is around the same region. Immediate price support is seen at $16.20 levels, followed by $15.50, $14.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively. Bulls seem to be in control for now and hence it is recommended to hold earlier long positions while also looking to add up further on dips. The metal should print higher highs till $15.50 levels remain intact.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long and add on dips, stop at $14.50, the target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for January 14, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold had hit $1,244.00 levels during early hours today before pulling back lower. Please note that the metal has hit minimum expected targets as depicted here (red lines). A pullback lower is expected towards $1,205.00/10.00 levels, before the rally resumes. It is recommended to remain flat and loon to buy around $1,210.00 levels, risk remains at $1,170.00 for now. Immediate support is seen at $1,210.00/05.00 levels, followed by $1,170.00, $1,143.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,255.00 and higher respectively. Bulls should remain in control till prices remain above $1,170.00 for now.


Trading recommendations:


Buy around $1,210.00/05.00, stop below $1,170.00, the target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 14, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German 10-y Bond Auction, Industrial Production m/m, and French CPI m/m. The US will publish the economic data too such as the Beige Book, 30-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Business Inventories m/m, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.1826.


Strong Resistance:1.1819.


Original Resistance: 1.1808.


Inner Sell Area: 1.1797.


Target Inner Area: 1.1769.


Inner Buy Area: 1.1741.


Original Support: 1.1730.


Strong Support: 1.1719.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.1712.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 14, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, 30-y Bond Auction, and M2 Money Stock y/y. The US will publish some economic reports such as Beige Book, 30-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, Business Inventories m/m, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the Asian day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 118.10.


Resistance. 2: 117.88.


Resistance. 1: 117.65.


Support. 1: 117.36.


Support. 2: 117.14.


Support. 3: 116.90.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of USDX for January 14, 2015

The USDX continues to remain above the bullish trend line at the level of 92.20. On the H4 chart, we can see that this instrument could not overcome the barrier set by the resistance level of 92.62. Therefore, the bullish bias has not caught momentum in recent days, although this is normal, as the USDX had gained much bullish ground in recent weeks.


H4chart's resistance levels: 92.62 / 94.25


H4chart's support levels: 92.10 / 91.62


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On the H1 chart, the USDX has consolidated again above the support level of 92.08, so the closest target in the short term remains the resistance level of 92.51. As a result, the USDX is forming a higher high pattern to gain more positions this week, due to the release of US NFP data during the session last Friday.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 92.51 / 92.92


H1 chart's support levels: 92.08 / 91.66


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 92.51, take profit is at 92.91, and stop loss is at 92.08.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 14, 2015

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair still finds strong pressure on the bearish trend line that is located near the 1.5148 level. Now, the GBP/USD pair could concentrate forces for a strong breakout at the 1.5150 level. If it succeeds, this pair is likely to get consolidated in the bullish bias above the level of 1.5235 in the medium term.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.5341 / 1.5485


H4 chart's support levels: 1.5148 / 1.5017


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The GBP/USD pair continues to move in a low range between 1.5198 and 1.5110. So, many traders exercise caution and keep away from trading within this area because of a high trading volume. GBP/USD has no clear trend in the short term. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5198 / 1.5249


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5146 / 1.5110


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5146, take profit is at 1.5110, and stop loss is at 1.5183.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 14, 2015

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Trading recommendations :



  • The support of the EUR/USD pair has set at the price of 1.1856 and this price coincides with the weekly pivot point.

  • The first key level will set at the level of 1.1856 and the second key level will set at 1.1805 today.

  • Moreover, it should be noted that the area between 1.1805 and 1.1737 represents strong support on H1 chart.

  • Equally important, the price of the EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.1788 and 1.1742.

  • Additionally, it should be noticed that the range was about 222 pips last week, but we expect a large range around 300 pips this week.

  • Furthermore, the trend was very clear and indicating a downward bias. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for the bearish market at the level of 1.1856 or 1.1805.

  • As a result, sell at the price of 1.1856 or 1.1805 with the first target of 1.1760, it might resume to 1.1753 in order to test the double bottom.

  • The level of 1.1666 will act as strong support in coming days.

  • On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.1856 level, hence it will helpful to set it at the price of 1.1886 this week.



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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 14, 2015

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Overview :



  • The first key level of GBP/USD pair will set at the level of 1.6875 and the second key level will set at the 1.5306 mark today. Moreover, it should be noted that the level of 1.5325 represents the resistance and the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, the 1.5023 level is going to act as the support on H1 chart and the double bottom sets at the level of 1.5035 at the same time frame. Equally important, the price of the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.5104 and 1.2521. Another thought, it should be noted that the range will be about 88 pips today. Furthermore, in the long term the trend is very clear and indicating a downward bias from the double top at the level of 1.5325. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for the bearish market at the level of 1.5320. As a result, sell at the price of 1.5320 with the first target of 1.5180, it might resume to 1.5104 and continue towards the point of 1.5035 in order to test the weekly support. On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.5325 level. Therefore, it will be helpful to set it at the price of 1.5360 today.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 14, 2015

EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument still has the potential to continue trading further down in the context of the existing bearish trend. When the support line at 1.1750 is breached to the downside, it would ensure more southerly trip towards another support line at 1.1700.


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USD/CHF: This market is still in a bullish mode and the resistance level at 1.0200 is still being challenged (just as it was challenged unsuccessfully last week). A breach of that stubborn resistance level is a task that must be done by bulls; otherwise, the risk of a large pullback from here is high. The resistance level must not only be broken - the price must also close above it.


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GBP/USD: This is a bear market in spite of bulls' effort to push the price further up. Unless the price closes above the distribution territory at 1.5250, there cannot be any threat to the existing bearish outlook. The price is likely to dive further from this point.


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USD/JPY: Now, there is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in this market, with the price below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 below the level 50. Given the current strength in the Yen, this market is expected to fall further, challenging the demand level at 117.00.


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EUR/JPY: This week, the EUR/JPY pair has dropped by over 150 pips, testing the demand zone at 138.50. That demand zone could be tested again and breached to the downside, enabling the price to reach another demand zone at 138.00.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 13, 2015

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated.


Recently, the market failed to express a bullish breakout above the price level of 1.5760 (the upper limit of the daily bearish channel).


Instead, an extensive bearish pressure was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 (this breakdown was successfully executed on December 23).


A daily closure below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with "projection target" at 1.5300.


The market has already pushed further below this level reaching down to 1.5030 affected by the U.S. dollar strength these days.


The key-support zone for today's movement is located at 1.5100-1.5120. On the other hand, fixation above the price level of 1.5175 pauses the current bearish decline exposing price level of 1.5260, 1.5370 and 1.5410.


However, within such strong bearish trend you should note that H4 fixation below 1.5100 indicates further bearish tendency on the market, probably, new lows below 1.5030 are going to be hit.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 13, 2015

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Overview:


Few months ago, the price levels around 1.0620 (the lower limit of the depicted chart) initiated the current strong uptrend within the depicted daily channel.


During the past few weeks, the USD/CAD pair established a temporary consolidation zone between price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670.


Bullish breakout above these zones allowed bulls to reach price levels of 1.1800, 1.1850 and recently 1.1900 where new highs have been scored.


As a conservative trader, you should know that price zone of 1.1800-1.1750 remains the nearest SUPPORT zone for the current prices. LONG positions are suggested at retesting this price zone.


You should also note the ascending channel pattern being expressed around price zone of 1.1900-1.1950 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel is located.


This pattern may indicate bearish reversal if confirmed with bearish breakdown of the lower limit of it around price level of 1.1850-1.1870 (the most recent SUPPORT zone).


Trading recommendations:


LONG positions are suggested at retesting price zone of 1.1800-1.1750 which is a newly established SUPPORT zone. SL should be placed slightly below price level of 1.1730.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 13, 2015

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The EUR/USD pair continued to move lower after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVEL at 1.2250 exposing the price levels of 1.2120 and 1.2000 .


Further actions from the ECB regarding QE are still doubted. The market was expecting the US Non-Farm Employment indicator to drop on Friday. Moreover, the latest eurozone manufacturing release was not that good. All these reasons led to the current negative EUR/USD pair sentiment.


The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 200 pips since the year of 2015 started, as the market is pushing towards its lowest levels since December 2009.


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The market currently looks oversold below the price level of 1.2000 and 1.1950 (prominent psychological SUPPORT & the lower limit of the movement channel on the H4 chart).


Currently, selling the EUR/USD pair is considered a high-risk position at such historically low prices. On the other hand, BUYING the EUR/USD pair is currently a low-risk opportunity at such low prices.


Bullish pullback should be anticipated looking for better prices to sell the pair off.


The price level of 1.1950 is the recently established SUPPLY level. Short-term SELL positions can be taken there provided that the market keeps trading below the price level of 1.2000.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 13, 2015

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Previously, the GBP/USD pair had temporary DEMAND around 1.5550 where many previous lows were established within a congestion zone in November 2014.


A bearish breakout was expressed after successive unsuccessful attempts back in 2014.


A bearish flag pattern is obvious on the daily chart, similar to what happened back in October.


The final bearish target was expected to be around price level of 1.5140. This target was already bypassed on Friday reaching the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel around 1.5050.


Currently, the GBP/USD pair is showing bullish recovery off the price level of 1.5050 which is manifested in the bullish hammer daily candlesticks. This is supported by the positive UK Manufacturing production data that emerged on Friday.


Bullish fixation above 1.5100 is mandatory to maintain the current corrective movement. Price level of 1.5100 has been defended by bulls since 2015 started.


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Consolidation movement range between the price levels of 1.5770 and 1.5550 represented the state of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.


As anticipated, the bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. The bears have already reached the price level of 1.5050 that has not been hit since August 2013.


Risky traders can look for BUY entries around price level of 1.5100. Targets would be located around 1.5400, 1.5480 and 1.5550. Stop Loss to be located below 1.5025.


Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the recent SUPPLY zone around 1.5480-1.5550 for a low-risk SELL entry. The stop loss should be located above 1.5560.


Note that the price level of 1.5480 corresponds with 50% Fibonacci level as well as multiple previous bottoms established back in December.


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