GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 31. Pound is ready to continue growing. Bulls aim for resistance 1.3386

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

Friday's data on the growth of income and spending of Americans led to a small downward correction of the bullish trend, which formed several good signals to buy the pound in anticipation of continuing growth, which happened. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the trades. We can see that after settling above the resistance of 1.3271, testing this level from top to bottom had formed a good entry point, which led to the pair's growth in the resistance area of 1.3324, where I recommended selling immediately for a rebound. However, before the initial test of the 1.3324 level, there were literally 4 points missing, so those who missed this sale against the trend did the right thing. After the pound returned and a breakout formed at the 1.3324 level, and it was also tested from top to bottom by the end of the US session, a good buy signal had formed, which brought about another 40 points of profit. At the moment, the task of the bulls is to protect the support of 1.3324. Forming a false breakout at this level, along with a rebound from the moving averages, will be a good signal to open long positions in continuing the upward trend. An equally important task for the bulls is to settle above the resistance of 1.3386, which will only strengthen the bullish momentum and lead to the renewal of the next high in the area of 1.3437 and 1.3467, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls and buyers are not active in the area of 1.3324, it is best to postpone purchases until a larger low of 1.3271 has been tested and open long positions from there immediately to rebound in anticipation of a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need to:

The bears need to try to prevent a breakout of the 1.3386 resistance, which is so clearly aimed at the buyers of the pound. Unsuccessfully settling above this range and returning to the area under it forms a good entry point for selling the pound in the morning, in anticipation of returning and falling to the support of 1.3324, where the downward movement may slow down. Settling below this range will form a more powerful bearish wave, capable of returning the pair to the 1.3271 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case sellers are not active at the 1.3386 level, it is best to postpone short positions until the next major resistance is updated in the area of 1.33371, or sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from the new major level of 1.3467 in anticipation of a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the upward trend for the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3385 will lead to a new wave of growth in the pound. In case of a decline in the pair, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3271.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 3. Bulls keep pushing the euro

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Last Friday, buyers of the European currency ignored the good fundamental data on the US economy and continued to push the pair to new monthly highs, before the update of which is very short. But will the bulls have enough strength for this on the last summer trading day? As for the deals that were on Friday afternoon, let's look at them. On the 5-minute chart, I noted an excellent entry point after a breakout and settling above the resistance of 1.1887. Especially the repeated test after the pair fell to the 1.1887 level, which made it possible to take more than 30 points from the market. By the end of the US session, the bears tried to form an entry point into short positions by pulling the pair back under the 1.1887 area and testing it from the bottom up. However, following a small movement of about 18 points, the bulls regained control of the market. At the moment, euro buyers should form a false breakout at the support level of 1.1887, where the moving averages that play on the side of the bulls are now passing. Only such a scenario will allow us to count on the pair's growth and a breakout of the 1.1947 resistance. Settling on it will open a direct path for the euro to new highs of 1.1994 and 1.2022, where I recommend taking the profit. If buyers of the euro are not active at the 1.1887 level, it is best to postpone long positions until the 1.1849 level has been updated and buy there for a rebound based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need to:

Bears can only rely on weak fundamentals for the eurozone countries today. Attention will be drawn to Italy's GDP, as well as inflation in Germany. If the data turns out to be better than economists' forecasts, it will help sellers of the euro in returning the pair to the support of 1.1887. Settling below this level forms a good signal to sell EUR/USD in anticipation of falling to the support of 1.1849 and updating the low of 1.1812, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows, especially if the data indicates an increase in consumer prices, it is best not to rush with sales, but to wait for an update and a false breakout to form near the monthly high of 1.1947. I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound only from the 1.1994 level, or even higher – from the large resistance of 1.2022, based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of continued growth in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1920 area will strengthen the demand for the euro. In case of a decline in the pair, intermediate support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator around 1.1880.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for August 31, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been seen trading around the level of 1.1915 during the early Monday hours, so the end of the month is looking very bullish. The rally was capped at the level of 1.1915 and currently the market is consolidating the recent gains. The immediate support for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1884 and only a clear violation of this level will be an intraday bearish signal. The next target for bulls is the swing high seen at the level of 1.1965. Weekly and monthly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2130

WR2 - 1.2019

WR1 - 1.1975

Weekly Pivot - 1.1859

WS1 - 1.1812

WS2 - 1.1706

WS3 - 1.1664

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for August 31, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been seen trading around the level of 1.3365 in the early Monday hours, so the end of the month is looking very bullish. The immediate support for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3283 - 1.3264 and only a clear violation of this level will be an intraday bearish signal. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2447. Weekly and monthly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3797

WR2 - 1.3564

WR1 - 1.3482

Weekly Pivot - 1.3256

WS1 - 1.3192

WS2 - 1.2962

WS3 - 1.2882

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, the recent rally form the multi-year lows seen at the level of 1.1404 has been successful and the trend might be reversing. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on August 31? Plan for opening and closing

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.

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During the trading on Monday night, the EUR/USD currency pair made another attempt to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1903, however, this attempt was unsuccessful. Formally, the price overcame the level of 1.1903,however, it immediately returned again and may well now begin to fall to the level of 1.1700, which we have repeatedly defined as the lower line of the side channel in which the pair has been trading for more than a month. Last Thursday's trading, when the pair passed a hundred points up and down the same amount within a few hours, broke the technical picture for the pair and now it is completely unclear what trend is available to traders on the hourly timeframe. In the current conditions, it is impossible to build a channel or trend line, and it is not recommended for novice traders to trade without these benchmarks. Thus, option 2. Either market participants undertake to trade at their own risk or you need to wait for the formation of a clear trend and trade on the trend. Actually, this is the first rule of successful trading on the foreign exchange market – "Trade on the trend".

As of August 31, the calendar of macroeconomic events in the European Union contains quite a large number of different publications. However, all of them are of no interest to market participants. Consumer price indices in Spain, Germany and Italy, as well as GDP in Italy for the second quarter – all this is unlikely to cause any market reaction. Although the report on Italian GDP is interesting because it will once again show and prove how well things are in the European Union compared to America. Recall that last Thursday, the second estimate of GDP in the second quarter in the United States was released, and it contained a figure of -31.7%. Thus, one of the most affected by the pandemic and crisis, the European country loses three times less GDP than the world's strongest economy. This factor alone suggests that the US currency may continue to fall in price on the foreign exchange market. However, technical factors speak in favor of its growth. One of the currencies can't keep getting more expensive without significant corrections. If novice traders look closely at the older timeframes, they will see that the pair's growth has continued since April 24 and during this time the maximum was 200-250 points of correction. And the total growth is currently 1230 points. Today on Monday, market participants can only track general news (from Donald Trump, on the US-China standoff, on the 2020 election).

As of August 31, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Buying a pair at this time is not recommended for novice traders, since there are no new patterns that support the upward movement at the moment. Thus, for purchases of the pair, you need to wait for the formation of an upward trend and the corresponding buy signals from the MACD (currently directed down). Even breaking the level of 1.1903 does not guarantee the continuation of the upward movement, but in this case, novice traders can still try to open longs with the target of 1.1945 if there is a signal to buy from the MACD.

2) We also do not recommend considering sales now, because there are no patterns that support the downward movement now either. Theoretically, a rebound from the level of 1.1903 can trigger a downward movement to the lower border of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, but this is also impossible to be sure, since the borders of the channel are not clear. And, as we can see, there was no clear rebound during the night trading either. Thus, in the next few days, we recommend that novice traders behave very carefully.

What's on the chart:

Price support and resistance levels – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which way it is preferable to trade now.

Up/down arrows – indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator(10,20,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend constructions (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 31, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Taras Kulyk, senior vice president of Blockchain Business Development at Core Scientific, says countries competing to become blockchain leaders vary greatly in what they can offer cryptocurrency miners.

In one interview, Kulyk stated that global hashrate diversification is increasing as countries around the world compete for control of the cryptocurrency mining industry. Kulyk believes China is a desirable cryptocurrency mining hub due to the specific factors it enjoys, notably low labor costs, unit access, and reduced energy cost during the rainy season, but explained:

"One of the major economic problems that led to the recent government repression is the theft of power, which local politicians then have to stop. Another key economic problem causing regulatory uncertainty is capital control issues. Both of these factors have made the current regulatory environment in China uncertain. for digital mining companies. The turmoil at the highest political level in any country or jurisdiction is likely to cause current operators to cut planned capital expenditure or, worse, to shut down and relocate. "

Cryptocurrency mining "is extremely capital intensive, he pointed out, which means operators require stability over a long period of time to ensure capital recovery and return on investment." He also warned that political unrest "could disrupt this much-needed stability."

Kulyk pointed out how the new regulations affected competitors in individual countries such as Iran, Ukraine, Canada and Kazakhstan:

"Overall, we are seeing the regulatory burden of digital mining diminishing as it is increasingly seen as a way to revive the assets of the expiration industry to make them useful in the 2.0 technology economy. Governments are turning to their regulatory policy, in particular by making its policy more favorable to mining, in order to gain a competitive advantage over other players in the mining industry. "

With the advent of clarity on cryptocurrency mining legislation, Kulyk believes that "we will continue to watch institutional investors allocate portfolio space to leaders in the field," and concluded that:

The stronger the leadership team and the transparency of ownership and operations, the more likely the company will be a target for investors looking to engage in digital mining.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD had broke through the trend line resistnace around the level of $387 and continued to move higher. The recent high has been made at the level of $429.90, just below the technical resistance located at the level of $430.71. The zone between the levels of $407.03 - $414.11 will now act as a demand zone for bulls. The key technical restance is seen at the level of $447.26 (this year's high). The weekly trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $507.05

WR2 - $468.00

WR1 - $450.50

Weekly Pivot - $409.09

WS1 - $391.88

WS2 - $350.52

WS3 - $335.87

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $364.95.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 31, 2020

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GBP/JPY rallied into the expected resistance near 141.36 to complete red wave iii. It is now developing red wave iv/. The ideal target for red wave iv/ is seen at 138.34 from where red wave v/ towards at least 142.09 and ideally closer to resistance in the 143.21 - 144.38 area should be seen. As red wave ii/ was a simple zig-zag correction, we should expect a more complex correction in red wave iv/ in form of a flat or maybe a triangle consolidation.

R3: 141.36

R2: 141.14

R1: 140.83

Pivot:140.45

S1: 139.98

S2: 139.55

S3: 139.03

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP again at 138.50

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 31, 2020

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EUR/JPY remains in a corrective phase after peaking in wave 1/ at 126.76. Following the peak at 126.76, we have seen at A/ down to 124.41 and wave B/ up to retest the 126.76 peak and we are now in wave C/ lower to retest the low of wave A/ at 124.41. We should wait for the completion of the flat correction in wave 2/ as it is likely to set the stage for the next strong rally higher in wave 3/ that will rally way beyond the 126.76 peak. However, for now, we will concentrate on the completion of wave C/ of 2/ close to 124.41.

R3: 126.76

R2: 126.47

R1: 126.19

Pivot: 125.56

S1: 125.16

S2: 124.85

S3: 124.41

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 124.50 or upon a break above 126.76

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EUR/GBP price movement, August 31, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, the EUR/GBP pair is now moving in a downslope channel and bellow the Moving Average. The bearish bias is strong. The pair may test the 0.8943 level for the second time before it moves up again. It confirmed by the William %R is on Oversold level. Please pay attention to the 0.8974 level. If the pair climbes up above the mentioned level, it is likely to enter the sideways correction.

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USD Index Price Movment For August 31, 2020.

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On the 4-hour chart, the USDX is moving in a downslope Pitchfork Channel and bellow the Moving Average. It means that the bias for the USDX is bearish. The USDX may break through the 92.17 level because the middle line of the Pitchfork Channel now is its prime target. Although we should take into account the oversold condition from the William %R. The US dollar continues to decline if the price does not rise and close at 93.33.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 31, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

According to the media, several federal agencies such as the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Department of the Treasury have started using blockchain.

US Food and Drug Administration officials needed an effective way to help them track data on the H1N1 swine flu virus, which started spreading again in 2017. Of course, US Food and Drug Administration officials have found no better way than adopting blockchain technology.

Henry Francis, associate director of data mining and computing evaluation and research at the FDA's Drug Evaluation and Research Center, successfully developed a blockchain-based application that automatically enables them to obtain real-time encrypted data from multiple sources. Francis explained that the Application for Portable Interactive Devices (RAPID) program is one of the first full-blown blockchain implementations in the federal government, and interest in the technology is growing.

The Treasury Department's Office of Innovation and Financial Transformation, or FIT, has also turned to blockchain. The first application was used for tracking mobile devices, and the second was for managing software licenses. FIT also tested whether blockchain use can improve grant payment processes in collaboration with the National Science Foundation.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) also uses distributed ledger technology to increase its mass purchasing power, reduce reporting burden, lower costs for industry partners and improve record keeping of supplier transactions.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the BTC/USD bounced from the demand zone located between the levels of $11,062 - $11,220, the channel has been violated as well. The bulls has resumed the local up trend from the oversold market conditions as they do not want to lose the $11,000 support. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $11,646 and the key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $11,062. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,658

WR2 - $12,221

WR1 - $11,935

Weekly Pivot - $11,435

WS1 - $11,232

WS2 - $10,778

WS3 - $10,510

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic correction are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,463.

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Control zones for GBPUSD on 08/31/20

Friday's growth will continue the upward priority pattern. Any reduction in part of Friday's movement will be corrective and will make it possible for you to get the best prices on long deals. The nearest support is WCZ 1/4 1.3248-1.3238. Testing this zone should be considered as an opportunity to buy the British pound.

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Growth can continue without forming a deep correction pattern. The nearest target for taking part of the profit is the WCZ 1/2 1.3438-1.3417.

To reverse the upward momentum, it will require absorbing Friday's growth and closing today's trading below Friday's low. The probability of this event is less than 20%, which makes this model unprofitable for termination, and sales go into the background and can not be considered today.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for EURUSD on 08/31/20

Last week's trading closed above the WCZ 1/2 1.1854-1.1845. This indicates a high probability of continued growth. The main target of the upward movement was the weekly control zone of 1.1974-1.1954. Reaching this zone will allow you to take part of the profit. The remaining purchases should be left in anticipation of strengthening the euro in the long-term.

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The nearest support for searching for long deals is the WCZ 1/4 1.1870-1.1865. When testing this zone, it is possible to open a long position.

The downward movement should only be considered as a correction, so sales from current levels are not profitable. Breaking the bullish momentum will require closing today's trading below Friday's opening. The probability of forming this pattern is less than 20%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for AUDUSD on 08/31/20

Last week's close was at a high. This makes it possible for us to assume that the upward movement will continue with a high probability. Long deals from current levels are not profitable, so you need to create a corrective downward pattern for repeated buy deals.

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Working in an upward direction is a priority, which makes it possible to leave part of the long deals based on further growth.

The probability of forming an alternative reversal pattern is less than 20%. It is not profitable to consider sales from current levels. Any reduction should be considered as an opportunity to buy the instrument. The most favorable prices are within the range of the WCZ 1/2 0.7292-0.7283.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for NZD/USD on 08/31/20

Last week's growth allowed us to form the absorption pattern of the weekly level. This means that the last high of the month will be tested again this week. At the same time, there is an 80% probability that the upward trend will continue, which makes buying profitable in the medium-term.

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The most favorable purchase prices are within the weekly CZ 1/2 0.6666-0.6659. The growth target is the WCZ 0.6816-0.6801.

On the other hand, the probability of canceling the bullish impulse and absorbing Friday's growth is 20%, which makes selling unprofitable. To cancel growth, closing today's trading below Friday's low is necessary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 31, 2020

EUR/USD

Following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole virtual conference, which was formally considered as dovish, buyers of the euro, finding no resistance, bought volumes above average. But these long deals could turn out to be wrong. Powell's statement about inflation growth has an obvious pattern by its nature, because now the main reason for unwinding inflation will not be the Fed rate, but that incredible liquidity poured into the free market in the form of subsidies and benefits during the coronavirus crisis, which Powell remained silent. We talked about this in Friday's review. The first inflation indicators will come out in a week, but we already have forecasts: the producer price index may add 0.3% in August, the consumer price index is expected to grow from 1.0% y/y to 1.2% y/y. Labor data will be released on Friday, with the unemployment rate expected to fall from 10.2% to 9.8%. We expect the euro to fall in the coming days.

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The daily chart shows that the price has reached the upper limit of the free roaming range of 1.1710-1.1905 starting on July 31 (the fact that the price is within the range may also be the reason why strategic investors did not offer strong resistance to buyers). A price exit slightly above the August 18 high according to the Marlin oscillator will form a double divergence, and this is a strong reversal pattern for the euro. Also, the euro may continue to rise in the range of 1.2040/55. In this case, the divergence will be reformed into a regular one (dashed line on the daily chart).

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The price is above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in the growth zone, slightly turning down, but not enough for any signal yet. We are waiting for the development of events and a pattern to form for a trend reversal.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 31, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling gained 150 points last Friday. From such an acceleration, it even broke through the resistance at the Fibonacci level of 23.6%. But not much, just enough to form a divergence with the Marlin oscillator in a new, wider form on the daily chart. Now we should wait for the market's decision - whether to turn around from the current levels, or continue growing until it reaches the peak on December 13,2019 (1.3514), from which the entire Fibonacci grid is built. We still prefer the reversal scenario.

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The price is traded at the 23.6% Fibonacci level on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is showing a slight reversal. The first signal for a reversal is when the price settles below 1.3328. A more reliable signal is when the price settles below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, below the 1.3213 price level, to which the MACD line is aiming for.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on August 31, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar, having felt the US dollar's weakness against the euro, added 106 points on Friday. Up to the target level - the December 2018 high at 0.7395 was 13 points short. But accurately testing this level is not a prerequisite. The aussie broke the multiple divergence with the Marlin oscillator, transforming it into the more common triple divergence.

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The triple divergence in this wide and measured form has a greater force than the sixfold one. The price is already reversing from the target level of 0.7390.

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The price shows its first intention of an expected reversal on the four-hour chart, you need to wait for a more distinct decline, first of all, by the Marlin oscillator. The final signal for a mid-term decline is when the price leaves the area under the MACD line on the daily scale (0.7223). A preliminary signal is when prices fall below the target level of 0.7296.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on August 31, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar could not bear the sudden resignation of the Japanese prime minister and fell against the yen by 120 points last Friday. The fall stopped at the embedded price channel line (105.33). The price started to rise this morning. The growth target is the upper embedded line of the price channel in the 106.62 area, but it is difficult for the price to go up there now, the trend has become completely downward on the daily chart: the price is under the balance and MACD lines, Marlin is in the zone of negative numbers. There is a risk that the price will overcome the Friday low and decrease to support the growing price channel to the 104.85 area.

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The price is also below the indicator lines, while Marlin is in a downtrend zone on the four-hour chart. The first sign of growth is when the price moves above 105.95, but this will be the first and not a strong enough sign. The price needs to consolidate above the MACD line (106.30), but this is already close to the target level of 106.62. It remains to wait for the development of events.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on August 31. COT report. Pound surged after speeches by Jerome Powell and Andrew

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair quite unexpectedly broke out of the downward channel on August 27, which was nearly directed sideways. Nevertheless, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, the quotes surged to the upper descending line of the channel, and traders broke through this line the next day, and so the price rose to the resistance level of 1.3346. Thus, the pound sterling, which has fewer grounds for new growth, continued it. We also managed to build a new ascending channel last Friday, which clearly shows an upward trend. At this time, we expect a slight downward correction, after which the upward movement is likely to resume.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, therefore, in the shortest term, an upward trend is now observed. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which came out on Friday, was completely neutral. Despite the fact that the UK currency resumed growing against the dollar, professional traders did not open new Buy-contracts during the reporting week of August 19-25. On the contrary, 9.700 Buy-contracts and 9,100 Sell-contracts were reduced. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders even slightly decreased. However, this change is so insignificant that it makes no sense to draw conclusions on it. Thus, the general attitude of large traders remains the same. The last three trading days were not included in the new COT report, and it was on these days that the British currency sharply increased. Thus, in the new COT report, we can see a serious increase in net position among non-commercial traders, which, in turn, will confirm the intention of the big bulls to continue investing in the pound sterling, while getting rid of the dollar.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair on Friday was not expressed by macroeconomic reports. We have already mentioned in the euro/dollar article that all reports from overseas did not provide any support to the US dollar. There were no economic data from Britain at all. We only had Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, at which Powell spoke the day before. But, like his American counterpart, Bailey did not give the listeners any fundamentally new and important information. He only noted that the Bank of England's toolbox is by no means exhausted, despite the cut in the key rate to a record low of 0.1% and an increase in the quantitative easing program. As you can see, Bailey's words could not provide serious support to the British pound either. Thus, we are more inclined to the option that the buyers' patience snapped at the end of the previous week and they took the pair for new purchases, since the bears showed their weakness and unwillingness to dominate the market during the month.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 31:

1) Buyers have been active in recent days and are pushing the pair up again. At the moment, they need to overcome the 1.3346 level, but we believe that a downward correction should start on Monday, and only after its completion can the upward movement resume with the target of 1.3425. Downward correction can be 70-80 points. It is recommended to open new longs in the lower area of the ascending channel. Take Profit in this case will be about 150 points.

2) Bears released the pair from their hands again, as the quotes went above the downward trend channel, so sales will cease to be relevant. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions again after the price consolidates below the ascending channel and the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines with the target of the support area of 1.3003-1.3023. Take Profit in this case will be about 110 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on August 31. COT report. Professional market participants continue to invest

EUR/USD 1H

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On the hourly timeframe on August 27, the EUR/USD pair continued the same vague movements that have been observed over the past month. The pair's quotes are also traded within the side channel, limited by the levels of $1.17 and $1.19. The price rose to the upper border of the channel – 1.1886-1.1910 area, in the final trading day of last week, however, quite predictably, it failed to overcome it. Thus, despite the euro's growth last Friday, we still cannot conclude that the upward trend has resumed. The EUR/USD pair can only resume moving up if the 1.1886-1.1910 area has been confidently overcome.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both channels of linear regression moved up on the 15-minute timeframe, but in the near future they may turn down if the resistance area of 1.1886-1.1910 is not overcome. A new Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released last Friday. And take note that its character has not changed at all compared to previous COT reports. Despite the fact that the euro/dollar has been trading inside the side channel for more than a month, professional traders continue to increase their net position. In other words, the number of Buy-contracts for non-commercial traders (the most important group of traders) is growing, while the number of Sell-contracts is decreasing. The "non-commercial" category of traders opened 1,302 Buy-contracts and closed 11,310 Sell-contracts during the reporting week of August 19-25. Thus, the net position (the difference between the number of buy and sell contracts) increased by 12,000. Therefore, we can draw the same conclusions as we did a week ago and two weeks ago: professional traders continue to view the euro as a more attractive currency to invest in than the US dollar. The situation did not change during the last three trading days of the past week, which were not included in the latest COT report, as the euro currency grew again.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair was quite weak. Market participants were still under the impression of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech a day earlier. And although from our point of view, the Fed chief did not mention anything super-important, something that could affect monetary policy or the dollar exchange rate in the near future, nevertheless, the markets were clearly worried on Thursday and Friday, and so the dollar fell again since there was nothing optimistic in Powell's speech. There is also not much to note from the macroeconomic reports on Friday. Personal income of Americans increased by 0.4% in July, and personal expenses – by 1.9%. Although this is higher than experts' forecasts, however, these data did not provide any support to the dollar. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan also turned out to be better than forecasts, but also did not help the US currency in any way.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 31:

1) Bulls as a whole continue to hold the initiative in their hands. But since new long deals on the pair are opened rather reluctantly (after all, the quotes remain near the two-year highs), trading continues to proceed within the side channel. Thus, in order for the upward trend to resume, the quotes must return to the area above the range of 1.1886-1.1910. In this case, we will recommend buying the euro with the target at the resistance level of 1.2051. Take Profit in this case will be up to 110 points.

2) Bears managed to stop the victorious tread of the bulls for only a few weeks, and no more. They have not been able to start a downward trend over the past month. Thus, you can consider selling the pair while aiming for the support area of 1.1702-1.1727, if the price manages to gain a foothold below the Kijun-sen line (1.1841), however, you can see for yourself how the quotes are willingly moving down, so far not the fact that the price will reach the target area. You should be very careful with sales now. Potential Take Profit in this case is 70-80 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on August 31? Getting ready for Monday session

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued to trade in an upward direction on Friday, August 27 and then it reached the 1.1903 level by the end of the day, which we have repeatedly designated as the upper line of the ascending channel. Thus, the price managed to overcome the 1.1851 level, which we said was critical for maintaining the downward trend, and earlier - the upward trend line. Therefore, at the moment, it is not even possible to make a clear conclusion about the current trend for the euro/dollar pair. At first glance, it is going up. However, buyers did not overcome the 1.1903 level, thus, a new downward movement may begin on Monday, and the trend, accordingly, will become downward. Thus, we recommend novice traders to be careful in the market at this time, since the price continues to trade between the levels of 1.1700 and 1.1900, that is, in a sideways, 200-point channel. Therefore, there is no trend in the long term. If the quotes manage to overcome the 1.1903 level, then, of course, the probability of going up in the long term will increase, but now we cannot even build an upward trend line, since the price jumped both up and down by 100 points on Thursday.

There were few macroeconomic events on Friday. By and large, the markets were trying to digest information received from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell the day before. Moreover, the European markets and traders did not have time to work out this information, since Powell's speech came out rather late. The same was true for the Asian markets, which opened after Powell's speech. Therefore, on Friday, the markets continued to trade under the influence of what was said in Jackson Hole. And the US dollar became cheaper again. Several US macroeconomic reports were nevertheless published, but there was no reaction to them, as we warned.

August 31, Monday, is absolutely empty in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Inflation data for August (preliminary values) will be released on this day in Italy, Spain and Germany, but these figures are unlikely to cause at least some market reaction. Thus, we can assume that the calendar of events for Monday is empty. If so, the pair may begin to correct. There are two reasons for this - there is no news and an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the 1.1903 level. Thus, novice traders will need to fear only unplanned news and events on this day. However, unplanned news is unexpected and it is impossible to predict their appearance and essence.

Possible scenarios for August 31:

1) Novice traders are not recommended to consider buying the pair at this time, since there are no new patterns supporting the upward movement at the moment. Thus, to buy the pair, you need to wait for a short-term upward trend to form and corresponding buy signals from the MACD (at this time, it has turned down). Even overcoming the level of 1.1903 does not guarantee a continuation of the upward movement, but in this case, novice traders, if there is a signal to buy from MACD, can still try to open longs with the target of 1.1968.

2) We also do not recommend considering sales now, because there are no patterns supporting the downward movement either. Theoretically, a rebound from the 1.1903 level can provoke a downward movement to the lower border of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, however, one cannot be sure of this either, since the borders of the channel are not clear-cut. Thus, in the next few days, we recommend that novice traders behave with extreme caution.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 31. Only a victory over the "coronavirus" in the United States can stop the fall of

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 215.6401

For the EUR/USD pair, the last trading day of the week turned into a new round of upward movement within the side channel, which is limited to the levels of $1.17 and $1.19. If you switch to the "language" of the "linear regression channels" system, then the Murray levels are "4/8"and "6/8". Thus, nothing has changed in technical terms over the past week. The upward trend continues. Buyers remain wary of making major new purchases of the euro currency near its two-year highs. Let's be honest and frank, there has been no downward correction; there are no new fundamental factors that could support the euro or put pressure on the US dollar. Thus, the bulls' doubts are absolutely logical. As for the bears of the EUR/USD pair, they simply do not believe in the dollar, and also do not have a particularly good reason to buy it, since no optimistic information is received from overseas. Moreover, there is no information coming from the European Union at all. In America, all the "four crises" remain, and a fifth, constitutional one is on the way – if Trump loses the election and refuses to leave office or starts a series of lawsuits accusing the Democrats of falsifying the election results. We have already written about all the crises repeatedly, as well as about the fact that America has turned against Donald Trump and does not want his re-election. Thus, the US dollar may even continue to weaken in the coming months. Only technical factors speak in its favor.

Thus, all the questions on the foreign exchange market now come down to what can stop the fall of the US currency? And when it might happen. If you try to look only at the fundamental and macroeconomic factors, the choice is not so great. The trade war with China is unlikely to end soon and the "coronavirus" continues to rage in the States. Several vaccines are being tested, however, independent doctors continue to say that it is not a problem to create a vaccine, the problem is to put it through all the necessary tests and prove that it is safe for all segments of the population, for people of all ages. Such tests can take months, if not years. The US President hopes that by the end of the year, the States will have their own vaccine. And in addition, the American President continues to make pretentious statements. "Defeating the coronavirus will happen faster than people think, with or without vaccines. This is already happening," Trump said at a speech in North Carolina.

Creating a vaccine in the US could really stop the US dollar from falling. However, we believe that this would only be a temporary respite for the US currency. The problem is that in the euro/dollar pair, the economies of the European Union and America are most important. Thus, we believe that to complete the fall of the dollar, America needs to stop the spread of the "coronavirus". With lockdown, with the vaccine, with mask mode and distance, it doesn't matter. As long as people are infected, this will create risks for the US economy, which already collapsed by 33% in the second quarter. But the situation in the European Union is much better, so the general fundamental background really supports the euro currency. First, many EU countries managed to stop the spread of COVID-2019. Yes, with the arrival of autumn in France and Spain, the number of diseases began to increase again, however, in many EU countries, the daily number of infections does not exceed 1,000, which is very small. Thus, it is safe to say that the situation with the epidemic in Europe is much more favorable. Second, the EU economy shrank by just 12.1% in the second quarter, almost three times less than the loss of the US economy. Third, the European Union has agreed on a budget for 2021-2027 and a 750 billion euro economic recovery fund. The United States continues to pour several trillion dollars into the economy every few months and brought its public debt to 30 trillion in 2020. Meanwhile, the economy requires new injections, as unemployment remains high, and the "coronavirus" could not be stopped. Accordingly, economic and business activity remains low, which hinders the recovery. Thus, if we consider only the fundamental factors, the dollar should really become cheaper. Another question is that all these factors have already been played out by the markets several times. The dollar can't always get cheaper for the same reasons! Moreover, we have already said that for the whole of 2019, the US dollar rose against the euro by 2 cents. Over the past three months, the euro has risen against the dollar by 12 cents and there has not even been a correction.

Thus, so far, the prospects for the US currency remain very vague. We can see that despite the sideways movement in the last month, market participants found no reason to buy the dollar during this time. This means that the upward movement can continue. There will be no macroeconomic reports on the first trading day of the new week. On Tuesday, the consumer price index in the European Union and the ISM and Markit business activity indices for the manufacturing sector in the United States will be released. We continue to draw traders' attention to the fact that the pair rarely reacts to macroeconomic statistics in recent months. However, a strong discrepancy between the forecasts and the actual values of important reports can cause a short-term market reaction, which is very important for intraday traders or in the short term. Therefore, you should not skip publications and reports anyway.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 31 is 89 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1814 and 1.1992. Although the boundaries of the side channel are more important at this time, in which the pair has been moving for more than a month. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal a new round of downward movement within this very channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is moving towards the upper line of the side channel. Thus, today we can continue to trade higher with the goals of 1.1963 and 1.1992, however, we strongly doubt that traders will be able to overcome the levels of 1.1900 and 1.1963. If the price is fixed below the moving average, it is recommended to trade lower with the goal of the Murray level of "4/8"-1.1719, but even in this case, the positions opened should be small and cautious.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com