Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 23, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price may continue to roll back, with the target of 1.2202 – 21 middle line (black thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price may move down.

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement with the target 1.2230 – resistance line (red bold line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on August 23, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the downward movement is possible to continue, with the target of 1.1065 - the support line. The probability of breaking down the line is high and then the next target 1.1028 is the lower fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Friday, a downward movement is possible.

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement with the target of 1.10114 - the upper fractal.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 23/08/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested power plant operators for mining cryptocurrency at the nuclear power plant facility in Juzhnoukrainsk.

The UNIAN English-language Ukrainian information site reported the details of the arrest. According to this article, cryptocurrency miners threatened the security of the nuclear facility through the internet connection of their mining installation - apparently leaked classified information about the power plant security system. SBU detectives obtained a search warrant and conducted an investigation. They found unauthorized computer equipment and seized a converter, fiber optic cable and partial network cable.

A similar situation occurred in February 2018, when many engineers from the Russian Federal Nuclear Center were arrested for trying to extract Bitcoins using one of the largest supercomputers in the country.

According to reports, the computer was able to perform 1000 trillion calculations per second and is intentionally disconnected from the Internet for security reasons.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has tested the short-term trendline resistance from below, around the level of $196.76. So far the test was a failure as the higher prices were neglected and the price got back to the middle of the range.. The next technical support is located at the level of $178.81 and might be tested soon as there are no signs of increased bullish activity. The nearest technical resistance is now located at the level of $196.76, just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $197.90.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $257.46

WR2 - $236.43

WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41

WS1 - $171.74

WS2 - $150.23

WS3 - $128.88

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 23/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The United States Treasury Department has added many cryptocurrency addresses to its list of Specially Marked Citizens (SDNs) in accordance with the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act. These addresses and their associated persons were considered to be associated with foreign drug operators.

The Ministry of the Treasury updated its SDN list on August 21. The three alleged drug traffickers associated with crypto addresses are Chinese citizens Xiaobing Yan, Fujing Zheng and Guanghua Zheng. All three people have Bitcoin-related addresses listed on the SDN list, and Guanghua Zheng has an additional Litecoin address.

As explained in the White House press release, the bill outlined above aims to ban trade and transactions between drug dealers and US entities - namely companies and individuals. Under the Act, government departments coordinate the investigation into foreign drug dealers. They are then mentioned on the list, which is presented to the president. This then determines whether it is appropriate to impose sanctions by the US.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin believes Bitcoin is susceptible to money laundering. Mnuchin said he intends to closely monitor Bitcoin and believes that billions of dollars in cryptocurrencies are being used for illegal purposes.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the lower channel boundary around the level of $9,700, but is still trading inside of the narrow range and below the technical resistance at the level of $10,166. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $9,704 and $9,676. Still, the larger timeframe trend remains up, but to regain control over the market, the bulls have to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,840.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,461

WR2 - $12,432

WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133

WS1 - $9,200

WS2 - $8,268

WS3 - $7,027

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 23/08/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair keeps trading in a narrow horizontal range, with yet another marginal local low made at the level of 1.1061. Nevertheless, it did not help the bears to push the prices lower towards the next technical support that is located at the level of 1.1034-1.1027. Any breakout below this level opens the road towards the level of 1.0950. The bulls should now defend this zone, but it does not look like they will as the bears have full control over the market. The market conditions are now extremely oversold and the momentum remains weak and negative. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1330

WR2 - 1.1278

WR1 - 1.1161

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1117

WS1 - 1.1003

WS2 - 1.0951

WS3 - 1.0838

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is treminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 23/08/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2175 and made a local high at the level of 1.2271. The technical resistance located at the level of 1.2248 has been violated as well, so the bulls are now in control of the market. The strong and positive momentum is indicating a possible move up extension towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.2381. This is the short-term key resistance level and if violated, the correction might evolve into more trending move higher.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2378

WR2 - 1.2273

WR1 - 1.2217

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.2114

WS1 - 1.2060

WS2 - 1.1953

WS3 - 1.1902

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, August 23,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Belgian NBB Business Climate will be published. The US will release the Economic Data too such as New Home Sales. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1137. Strong Resistance: 1.1131. Original Resistance: 1.1120. Inner Sell Area: 1.1109. Target Inner Area: 1.1083. Inner Buy Area: 1.1057. Original Support: 1.1046. Strong Support: 1.1035. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1029. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for August 23, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair seems to be ready to push for yet another low close to 1.1020 levels. The single currency pair is trading around 1.1070/75 at this moment of writing, and another low looks possible before a pullback. If the prices should remain below 1.1160/70 levels, our scenario is likely to come true. We are looking for a final A-B-C drop for EUR, before a pullback can occur. Looking from the drop from 1.1250 levels, wave A seems to be ready to terminate soon near 1.1020 before wave B pullback rally could begin. All the above scenario remains valid until prices stay below 1.1412 resistance; however a break above 1.1412 would confirm that an important short-term low has been formed at 1.1020 and that prices could rally in the near term. Selling on rallies remains to be the preferred trading strategy against 1.1285/90 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short for now, stop above 1.1285/90, target below 1.1020 levels.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, August 23,2019

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Japan will release such economic data as the National Core CPI y/y. The US will publish such economic data as New Home Sales. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:107.12. Resistance. 2:106.89. Resistance. 1:106.67. Support. 1:106.44. Support. 2:106.24. Support. 3:106.03. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on August 23, 2019

EUR / USD pair

Thursday was hot for the euro. First, the August indices of business activity in France, Germany, and the euro area came out better than expected as a whole. The Manufacturing PMI of France is 51.0 versus 49.7 in July and the same German index is 43.6 versus 43.2 earlier, while in the euro area, the figure grew to 47.0 versus 46.5, which revised upward from 46.4. Services PMI for the euro area, in general, amounted to 53.4 against 53.2 in July. On this data, the euro jumped by almost 40 points. A few hours later, minutes were published from the last ECB meeting, which confirmed the regulator's intention to combine a further rate cut with the repurchase of bonds (QE) for the "best effect" in overcoming the expected crisis. From the peak of the day, the euro fell by 50 points. But in the end, the euro remained in the consolidation range of 1.1066-1.1120.

Today, the main event will be a speech at the Bankers Symposium in Jackson Hole by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, beginning at 14:00 London time. What Powell will talk about, and most importantly, in what tonality, remains a big mystery to the markets since Powell has repeatedly expressed contradictory things after which during the week his press office and board members laid out everything on the shelves. In predicting what the head of the Fed will say today, we use the opposite technique. The bottom line is that the main US institutions have already decided on the global policy regarding the national currency, which we have already mentioned more than once. The dollar should increase in the increasingly difficult geopolitical situation. A strong dollar is also needed to successfully attract investors in American debt, and it is also needed to facilitate the servicing of this public debt. for a number of other reasons, it is more profitable for the United States to have a strong national currency. Based on this, no matter what Jerome Powell says, the essence will be to ensure that investors understand the main idea: you need to buy dollars.

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We are waiting for the euro at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% in the region of the level of 1.0980. Fixing the price below the level opens the next target at 1.0840, which is the Fibonacci level of 161.8%, near the lower line of the price channel.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator touches the border with the territory of the "bears". The price is fixed below the indicator line of balance.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 23. The pound has 30 days to continue growth

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The meetings between the British Prime Minister and EU leaders led to the growth of the British pound yesterday afternoon, as traders expect that a compromise on the Northern Ireland border will be found soon. Buyers will return to the market today after a downward correction in the area of the first support level of 1.2214, where you can open long positions immediately on the rebound. In the absence of a rapid upward movement from this range, it is best to postpone purchases until the test of the minimum of 1.2176, which yesterday was the upper limit of the side channel. The main goal of the bulls will be to update the resistance of 1.2264 and consolidate above, which will continue the upward trend to the highs of 1.2337 and 1.2387, where I recommend taking the profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears will try to keep the level of 1.2264, but the more important task will be to return and consolidate below the support of 1.2214. Most likely, in the first test of this range, buyers will try to return to the market, however, in the absence of demand and a gradual return to the level of 1.2214 closer to the afternoon, sellers can begin to act more actively, which will lead to a decrease in GBP/USD to the low of 1.2176, where I recommend taking profit. In the scenario of growth of the pound in the area of the maximum of 1.2264, it is better to open short positions from there only after the formation of a false breakdown, or sell already on a rebound from the larger levels of 1.2337 and 1.2387.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a likely continuation of the pound's growth.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of the pound growth, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2290 will limit the upward potential. You can open long positions immediately for a rebound after the test of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2160.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 23. The US dollar will continue to grow after the speech of the Fed Chairman

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday's European Central Bank protocols made it clear that the leadership is not going to delay the easing of monetary policy, which hit the euro. At the moment, buyers can count on the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1066, but there is very little hope for this. The larger levels for opening long positions in EUR/USD will be the new lows of the month around 1.1028 and 1.0990. Also, the task of buyers will be to return to the resistance level of 1.1106, the breakthrough of which will provide a larger upward correction to the maximum area of 1.1130, where I recommend taking the profit. In the case of weak data on Germany, the output of which is scheduled for the first half of the day, it is best to postpone long positions on the euro until the speech of the Fed Chairman.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The sellers of the euro are faced with the task of overcoming the support of 1.1066, the repeated test of which will certainly lead to its breakdown and further movement of EUR/USD down to the area of the minimum of 1.1028. However, the larger downward trend to the support area of 1.0990, where I recommend taking the profit, will be directly related to the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, which will take place in the afternoon. In the euro growth scenario, short positions can still be considered on a false breakdown from the level of 1.1104, or sell on a rebound from a larger resistance of 1.1130.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a return to the market of euro sellers.

Bollinger Bands

The break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1066 will strengthen the bearish trend, while the growth will be limited by the upper limit in the area of 1.1105.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/SEK approaching resistance, potential drop!

EURSEK is approaching our first resistance where we might be seeing a drop below this level.

Entry: 10.7456

Why it's good : 76.4% fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 10.8014

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 10.6485

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement

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USD/CAD close to resistances

Price drifted higher and now close to horizontal sing high resistance below which a drop is expected.

Entry: 1.33155

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.3340

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 01.32750

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, intermediate horizontal swing low support

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USD/JPY approaching resistance, further drop!

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USDJPY is approaching 1st resistance at 106.77, potential drop could occur!

Entry :106.77

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci extension

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 106.12

Why it's good :38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on August 23, 2019

GBP / USD pair

Yesterday, the British pound closed the day by 127 points growth on a statement by Angela Merkel about the possibility of resolving the issue on the border with Ireland in the framework of Brexit until October 31. On the daily chart, the price went above the price channel line above the Fibonacci level of 223.6%. The Marlin oscillator line went into the growth zone and the price is moving towards the Kruzensten line at around 1.2302. Overcoming resistance will allow the price to rise even higher to a minimum of July 17 at the price of 1.2381.

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On the four-hour chart, the Marlin line got a reversal from the border separating the growth zone from the declining zone. An upward turn occurred from the line of balance (red indicator).

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Since yesterday's Merkel's statement was only a working one, this news will be fulfilled today or tomorrow. From the first or second target level, we are waiting for the price to turn downward.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on August 23, 2019

USD / JPY pair

On the daily chart, the dollar against the yen continues to be held above the price channel line. The price is slowly approaching the top of the range at 106.71 formed by the highs of August 19 and 20, overcoming it will create the first impulse of growth to the MACD line at the price of 107.14. Fixation on the MACD line opens the way for growth to the nested price channel line to the area of 108.48.

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On the four-hour chart, the price continues to be held by the line of balance. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is preparing to go into the growth zone, but in this case, the leading role belongs to the price. Leaving the price below yesterday's low will start the development of a negative scenario in which the first goal is the MACD line of 105.87 on H4 chart, which coincides with the support of the trend line of the green price channel on the daily chart. Fixation below this level opens the prospect of an even deeper fall in prices to support the red price channel to the area of 104.80.

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Control zones USDJPY 08/23/19

At the beginning of this week, the pair consolidated above Weekly Control Zone 1/2 106.53-106.46, which suggests an increase in the probability of growth to 70%. The next goal is the weekly control zone 107.81-107.62. Purchases which were opened on August 20, after testing the WCZ 1/4, must be kept in the expectation of further growth. In addition, new sales are possible after the release and consolidation above the upper boundary of the local flat.

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The probability of continued flat is still high, so any decrease to the lower boundary must be used to enter purchases. The depreciation of the entire current month leads to going beyond the monthly control zone, which ultimately makes it possible to work to return to its limits with a probability of 90%.

Meanwhile, an alternative decline model has a low probability. Therefore, it is not recommended to enter the sales. However, the reduction must be used to enter a long position or to increase the volume of the already open. It is important to understand that closing a month within a monthly control zone or inside it is above 70%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones USDCHF 08/23/19

For today, the main plan is to maintain a long position opened on August 21. Within the current average daily course is a weekly control zone 0.9894-0.9873. The testing of the zone will allow you to close part of the position, and transfer the rest to breakeven, as the probability of moving to the monthly control zone of August continues.

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When testing a weekly control zone, it is important to understand that the probability of a large offer is increasing. In the case of the formation of a "false breakdown" pattern, corrective sales of the instrument can be considered.

Meanwhile, the alternative model will be developed if the closing of today's trading is below the level of the American session on Thursday. This will allow us to talk about the formation of a local accumulation zone, where purchases at more favorable prices will come to the fore.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 23

Forecast for August 23:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1124, 1.1102, 1.1073, 1.1062, 1.1032 and 1.1011. Here, the price is in correction from the downward structure on August 13. Short-term movement to the bottom is expected in the range of 1.1073 - 1.1062. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1032. Price consolidation is near this level and hence the likelihood of a correction. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 1.1032.

The breakdown of the level of 1.1107 will lead to the formation of a pronounced potential for the top. In this case, the first goal is 1.1124, wherein consolidation is near this level.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 13, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1108 Take profit: 1.1122

Buy Take profit:

Sell: 1.1060 Take profit: 1.1035

Sell: 1.1030 Take profit: 1.1011

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2362, 1.2338, 1.2293, 1.2265, 1.2224, 1.2201 and 1.2167. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascending structure of August 20. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2265 - 1.2293. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2338. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2362. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2224 - 1.2201. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 1.2167. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of August 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2265 Take profit: 1.2290

Buy: 1.2295 Take profit: 1.2336

Sell: 1.2224 Take profit: 1.2201

Sell: 1.2198 Take profit: 1.2168

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9949, 0.9923, 0.9883, 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9815, 0.9795 and 0.9774. Here, we follow the ascending structure of August 13. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9854 - 0.9883. The breakdown of the level of 0.9883 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9923. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9949. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9815 - 0.9795. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9774. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9855 Take profit: 0.9881

Buy : 0.9884 Take profit: 0.9923

Sell: 0.9815 Take profit: 0.9796

Sell: 0.9794 Take profit: 0.9774

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.62, 108.14, 107.45, 106.91, 106.35, 105.94, 105.64 and 105.01. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure from August 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.91. In this case, the target is 107.45, where consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 108.14. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.62. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The range of 105.94 - 105.64 is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 105.01.

The main trend: building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.91 Take profit: 107.43

Buy : 107.47 Take profit: 108.14

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 105.62 Take profit: 105.04

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3345, 1.3319, 1.3300, 1.3246, 1.3217, 1.3182 and 1.3158. Here, the price forms the potential for the downward movement of August 20. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3246. In this case, the target is 1.3217, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.3217 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.3182. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3158. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3300 - 1.3319. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the formation of an upward structure. Here, the target is 1.3345.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of August 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3300 Take profit: 1.3316

Buy : 1.3321 Take profit: 1.3345

Sell: 1.3246 Take profit: 1.3219

Sell: 1.3215 Take profit: 1.3182

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6798, 0.6778, 0.6766, 0.6747, 0.6741, 0.6725, 0.6716 and 0.6699. Here, the price forms a downward structure from August 21. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.6747 - 0.6741. In this case, the target is 0.6725. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6725 - 0.6716. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6699. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6766 - 0.6778. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 0.6798.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6767 Take profit: 0.6776

Buy: 0.6780 Take profit: 0.6798

Sell : 0.6740 Take profit : 0.6725

Sell: 0.6715 Take profit: 0.6700

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.40, 118.65, 118.22, 117.58, 117.16 and 116.54. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 117.58 - 117.16. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 116.54. Price consolidation is near this level.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 118.22 - 118.65. The breakdown of the last value will have the formation of an ascending structure for the top. Here, the first goal is 119.40.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.22 Take profit: 118.62

Buy: 118.70 Take profit: 119.40

Sell: 117.56 Take profit: 117.18

Sell: 117.14 Take profit: 116.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 133.74, 132.73, 132.17, 131.23, 130.57, 129.66, 129.00 and 128.12. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 130.57 - 131.23. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 132.17. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 132.17 - 132.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 133.74. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 129.66 - 129.00. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 128.12. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.58 Take profit: 131.23

Buy: 131.26 Take profit: 132.17

Sell: 129.66 Take profit: 129.05

Sell: 128.96 Take profit: 128.12

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The pound believed in Brexit with a deal. How long?

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On Thursday, the British currency jumped sharply up. Such a change of mood was facilitated by the statements of the German Chancellor. According to Angela Merkel, Britain still has time to make a deal with the European Union. These comments were perceived by the market as the willpower of politicians aimed at breaking the impasse of Brexit.

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Such a violent reaction of market participants can be understood. Due to difficulties with Brexit, pound positioning is too skewed towards sales. Therefore, a small, or even controversial, positive regarding the possible conclusion of an agreement with Brussels sets sterling in motion.

After an unexpectedly strong increase in the British currency, strategists began to think about the correction of the market.

"There is probably the potential for the development of a correction," wrote Credit Agricole SA.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will soon meet with various EU leaders to discuss the possibility of a deal. Not the fact that everyone will be as friendly as Germany.

Although French President Emmanuel Macron softened the rhetoric after Angela Merkel, there were still notes of disagreement in his comments. Macron opposed the demands of the UK to reconsider the country's exit from the EU, saying that this is "not an option."

Some strategists drew attention to the fact that the French leader, speaking about the prospects for resolving the border issue with Northern Ireland, noted that in 30 days the parties would not be able to agree on a deal that would be fundamentally different from Theresa May's deal. Macron also made clear that a border decision should ensure that Northern Ireland remains in a single market with the European Union.

Pound buyers have revived, but there is no guarantee that a compromise will be found. The chances of London and Brussels to reach a "workable solution" on the Irish miserable border, which should prevent the growth of the pound.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 23, 2019 APLs &

Now, we will continue to prepare the options for the movement of trading instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY from August 23, 2019 according to the results of previous events.

Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame)

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US dollar index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from August 23, 2019 will depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 98.40 (control line UTL Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 98.20 (SSL Minuette start line)

As the #USDX return below the SSL start line (support level of 98.20) of the Minuette operational scale fork, it will make it relevant to achieve the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line (98.05 - 97.70 - 97.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork and the development of movement within this channel.

With the combined breakdown of the UTL control line (resistance level of 98.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork and the SSL start line (98.50) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the continuation of the upward movement of the dollar index to targets will become relevant - maximum of 98.93 - UTL Minuette control line (99.10) - warning line UWL38 .2 Minuette (99.20) - warning line UWL61.8 Minuette (99.66).

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

Similarly, the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from August 23, 2019 will also receive its development depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1080 (1/2 Median Line Minuette);
  • support level of 1.1070 (control line LTL Minuette operating scale fork).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1080 (1/2 Median Line Minuette) will make it possible to develop the upward movement of the single European currency towards the targets - the initial SSL line (1.1100) of the Minuette operational scale fork- the upper boundary of the 1/2 of the Median Line channel (1.1110) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.1155 - 1.1180 - 1.1205).

With a sequential breakdown of the LTL control line (1.1070) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the initial SSL line (1.1060) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.1050), the downward movement of EUR / USD will be possible to the targets - minimum 1.1027 - warning line LWL38.2 Minuette (1.0975).

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Now, for Her Majesty's currency, the development of the GBP / USD movement from August 23, 2019 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2150 (the initial line of SSL Minuette operating scale fork);
  • support level of 1.2170 (reaction line RL38.2 Minuette).

The breakdown of the SSL start line (resistance level of 1.2150) of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct GBP / USD movement to the targets - UTL control line Minuette (1.2172) - local maximum (1.2179) - SSL start line (1.2190) of the Minuette operational scale fork - local maximum 1.2210, and as an option - the achievement of the control line LWL38.2 Minuette (1.2280).

In case of the breakdown of the support level of 1.2120 on the reaction line RL38.2 Minuette, the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency can continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.2105 - 1.2080 - 1.2060) with the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of the equilibrium zone ISL38.2 (1.2035) Minuette operating scale.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

As with other currency instruments, the development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" from August 23, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 106.70 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 106.40 (upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 106.40) will determine the development of the USD / JPY movement in the equilibrium zone (106.40 - 105.80 - 105.25) of the Minuette operational scale, and if the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (105.25) takes place, then it will be possible to reach the SSL start line (105.06) of the Minuette operational scale fork and the final Schiff Line Minuette (104.90).

The breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 106.70) will confirm that further the development of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" will continue to the equilibrium zone (106.70 - 107.20 - 107.70) with the prospect of the Minuette operational scale fork. On the other hand, after the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (107.70), we will be able to reach the SSL initial line (108.10) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Between a rock and a hard place: Will Jerome Powell risk disappointing markets?

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Yesterday, the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve were published, at which the regulator lowered the interest rate for the first time in 10 years. Transcripts showed that FOMC members' opinions on monetary policy unexpectedly diverged.

Most officials saw interest rate cuts from 2.5% to 2.25% last month as protection against too low inflation and the risks of a sharper reduction in business investment due to the uncertainty surrounding the trade war. At the same time, two of them did not support the decision to soften the monetary policy, while the other two, on the contrary, expressed the opinion that the rate needed to be reduced not by 25, but immediately by 50 basis points. Disagreements within the FOMC are also evidenced by the phrase that the central bank needs to be flexible.

The Fed's claims of flexibility may simply be the regulator's refusal to follow U.S. President Donald Trump. Last Monday, he tweeted that the Fed should lower the rate by at least 100 basis points. According to the head of the White House, even despite such a significant reduction in rates, a quantitative easing may also be required.

The US president, who constantly says that the country's economy is strong, for some reason was not satisfied with the current state of affairs.

According to some analysts, despite the fact that the US administration is trying to convince the public that everything will be fine, in reality it is preparing for the worst.

They argue that the US economy is on the verge of a recession:

  • Last week for the first time in 12 years, the differential of returns between ten- and two-year Treasuries went into negative territory;
  • Consumer confidence in the United States has fallen to its lowest levels this year;
  • Industrial production in the country began to decline;
  • Fear and volatility returned to Wall Street;
  • According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the likelihood of a recession in the United States in the next twelve months has reached record levels since the 2008 global financial crisis;
  • US president suggests the Fed cut rates by 1% as soon as possible and restart the asset purchase program. Any of these actions will be perceived by the market as emergency measures, signifying the imminent approach of serious economic problems.

However, it should be recognized that due to the fading effect of fiscal stimulus and trade conflicts, the United States economy is returning to normal growth rates. However, this is clearly not enough for the owner of the White House, because in his future election program he intends to bet on the rapid development of the economy. Hence the constant criticism of the policy of the Federal Reserve, and the search for various options for accelerating GDP.

In addition, D. Trump obviously understood: in order to force the Fed to cut rates, he only needs to threaten China with new tariffs, which will alarm market participants.

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On Friday, J. Powell will speak at a conference in Jackson Hole, and investors will look in his words for hints of the Fed's future plans.

"Powell is between a rock and a hard place and cannot escape. The Fed should give up all principles and go straight to the zero rate, and also start a large-scale QE if it does not want to bring down global markets and lose control of the interest rate without soon starting to expand the balance sheet. Powell can only choose to control the discount rate or the Fed's balance sheet - there is no other choice, as everyone is driven by Trump deficits," said John Hardy, chief currency strategist at Saxo Bank.

According to recent estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the US budget deficit will reach $1 trillion two years earlier than previously thought, largely due to the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

Following the results of the July FOMC meeting, J. Powell said that lowering the federal funds rate is not the beginning of a mitigation cycle, and now he will need to somehow avoid the contradictions.

Apparently, the head of the Fed will not make any high-profile statements in Jackson Hole and confirm his previous comments that the US economy is still strong, the Fed softens its policy due to caution and does not see any risks for inflation.

"We believe that, despite aggressive calls, the Federal Reserve will not commit itself to further easing policies, instead adhering to the current approach. An interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September seems excessive to us, because historically it has turned out that larger reductions occur during recessions and rising unemployment, "said Danske Bank experts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com