Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 8, 2014

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The price zone of 1.2880-1.2900 (corresponding to the upper limit of the previous broken channel) was targeted a month ago. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern was established.


A bearish breakout off the bullish channel took place shortly after, thus confirming a Flag continuation pattern. Bearish projection target was already reached around 1.2490.


As anticipated before, daily fixation below 1.2490-1.2500 (the origin of the previous bullish swing expressed one month ago) extends the bearish targets towards the price level of 1.2200.


The EUR/USD bears needed to obviously fixate below 1.2360 soon enough. This has already taken place on the previous Friday.


Price level of 1.2200 corresponds to the projection target of the current bearish flag pattern as long as 1.2360 remains defended by the EUR/USD bears.


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The bearish flag scenario should now be considered for the longer-term positions. Bears should be looking for a solid SUPPLY ZONE to SHORT the EUR/USD pair again.


A double-top pattern was expressed this week on the 4H chart around 1.2500. As anticipated, fixation below neckline ( price level of 1.2430 ) enhanced the bearish trend on the market.


Moreover, the EUR/USD pair has a bearish projection target (the Flag pattern) roughly located around price levels of 1.2200 where the lower limit of the depicted 4H channel is also located..


Fixation below the recently broken bottom around 1.2390 is mandatory to maintain the current bearish momentum towards 1.2200.


Trade recommendations:


Intraday traders can SHORT the pair anywhere around 1.2340-1.2360 ( the most recent top ). SL should be set as four-hour closure above 1.2400.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for December 8, 2014

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Previously at the Price zone (1.6350-1.6410), the current long-term bearish trend was initiated almost two months ago.


Price zone of 1.6100-1.6140 constituted a solid SUPPLY zone. On the other side, prominent bullish DEMAND existed around price zone of 1.5940 - 1.5890.


Hence, the pair was trapped between 1.6100 and 1.5890 for almost 20 days before bearish breakout could take place.


Daily fixation below 1.5870 has put further bearish pressure on the pair to reach 1.5620-1.5650 where a prominent consolidation zone was established above.


The market was showing indecision between 1.5600 and 1.5760 until bearish breakout took place on Friday ( ended up to a Full-body bearish candlestick ).


Now the GBP/USD pair should find Intraday SUPPLY around 1.5600-1.5640 where many recent lows were previously established back in November.


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4H chart reveals the recent downside movement maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.


Conservative traders should wait for a pull-back towards price level of 1.5630 for a low-risk SELL entry. Stop Loss should be located at 1.5720.


On the other hand, an obvious 4H fixation below the triple-bottom price zone (1.5600 - 1.5590 ) indicates an upcoming bearish movement towards 1.5480-1.5500 where the lower limit of the current movement channel is located.


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EUR/NZD : analysis for December 08, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested and rejected from the level of 1.6077 in an average volume. Our resistance level at the price of 1.6030 held successfully, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe lack of demand (high churn) around the price of 1.6030. So, be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. Any larger supply may confirm a further bearish phase.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5954


R2: 1.5975


R3: 1.6009


Support levels:


S1: 1.5886


S2: 1.5865


S3: 1.5831


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since the price is near our resistance level. Watch for potential selling opportunities.


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Gold : analysis for December 08, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1,186.03 in an ultra high volume. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,186.00 held successful, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to look for buying opportunities near the lows (after retracement). Any larger reaction from buyers may confirm further bullish continuation. We got resistance level at the price of 1,220.00 (swing high like resistance). According to the 4H time frame, we got selling climax and a potential end of the bearish corrective phase (abcd).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,191.67


R2: 1,192.83


R3: 1,194.70


Support levels:


S1: 1,187.93


S2: 1,186.77


S3: 1,184.90


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 8, 2014


Forecast:



  • According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between 1.5685 and 1.5540.

  • The level of 1.5616 represents the weekly pivot point. It should be noted that the weekly pivot point coincides with the ratio of 11% Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart.

  • Also, it should be noted that the strong reistance had already been placed at the level of 1.5685.

  • So, sell below 1.5685 in the long term with the first target of 1.5616, it might resume to 1.5540 (in order to test the double bottom) if the trend will be able to break the double top at 1.6832.

  • The stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, it will be rather profitable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.5705.


Review and observations:



  • If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend. Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account. Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down. If you sell or buy for a long term in this period, you will surely lose your profit.

  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is a significant news, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for December 8-12, 2014

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair.


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Overview and review :



  • The first resistance of EUR/USD pair is projected at the level of 1.23 53 today.

  • The second resistance had already fixed at 1.2436 .

  • The area of 1.2353/1.2366 is a useful spot to sell in the long term this week.

  • We expect a range of 81 pips on December 8, 2014. And 54 pips would make a profit of 81 pips.

  • The weekly pivot point has set at the level of 1.2353.

  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reaches resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 1.2388 (to confirm a bearish market).

  • Volatility: 292.36. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility



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General idea about the pivot point :



  • Resistance 3 and support 3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well in the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the resistance 1 and support 1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and even reach resistance 2 and resistance 3 or support 2 and support 3. If the trend breaks resistance or support through, it is likely to result in a significant price movement, it is also referred to as breakout.


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#USDX Technical analysis for December 8, 2014

The Dollar index has made a new higher high at 89.55 and remains in a strong uptrend since 79.75. The bullish flag target is 91 and although we could see a short-term pull back towards 89, I believe we can achieve this target by year end.


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The Dollar index remains above the Ichimoku cloud support and continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The trend remains bullish. Short-term support is at 89 and after that at 88.50. The cloud suport is at 87.90 and as long as price is above that level I believe bulls will have nothing to fear. Currently, the index is near important short-term resistance and this justifies a pullback towards 89.


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The Dollar index remains fully bullish in Ichimoku terms on the weekly chart. The weekly candles remain fully bullish and the bullish flag target is getting closer and closer. I remain bullish for the long-term but caution is advised one more time as I believe we are close to the end of the rise from 79.75. Weekly support is at 87.80 so bulls need to hold above that level no matter what.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 8, 2014

Gold price continues to slide lower after making a high at $1,222. Short-term support at $1,200 was broken and price fell towards $1,185 only to bounce back towards $1,195 but still below $1,200. Short-term trend is bearish and I expect this downward correction to reach $1,173 or $1,180 before it resumes the uptrend.


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Blue trend line = resistance


Gold price is below the blue trend line resistance and as long as it trades below we should expect a move lower towards $1,173. Support is provided by the cloud and by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Once this decline is over, I expect another leg higher towards $1,250. The deeper this correction is, the lower the target of the next upward leg.


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The longer-term view remains bearish as price is below the Ichimoku cloud which is found at $1,280 and below the kijun-sen at $1,240. I'm neutral as long as Gold price is above $1,140 and I believe we could see an upward move towards $1,140 before the resumption of the down trend.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 8, 2014

General overview for 08/12/2014 08:40 CET


As anticipated the whole last week, the market has made another high and the current wave developing looks impulsive. The key level for this count to remain on the upside track is at the level of 148.08, because any violation of this level will invalidate the bullish impulsive outlook. As long as this level is providing support, bullish wave progression should occur, targeting first the level of 151.00 and then 151.70.


Support/Resistance:


151.70 - WR2


151.00 - WR1


149.77 - Intraday Resistance


149.00 - Weekly Pivot


148.92 - Intraday Support


148.50 - Intraday Support


148.32 - WS1


148.08 - Intraday Support|Key Level|


Trading recommendations:


The day traders should consider opening buy orders at the current market levels with SL below the level of 148.91 ant TP at the level of 149.77 and beyond.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 8, 2014

General overview for 08/12/2014 08:20 CET


The main count has been invalidated due to wave one and wave two overlaps. Now, the alternative count is being followed. In this count, the bottom for wave (ii) green has been established at the level of 1.1311 and since then the price has been trying to make impulsive progression to the upside. The key level of the supply zone has just been hit and now more upside prices should be seen soon, with the first target at the level of 1.1519.


Support/Resistance:


1.1519 - WR1


1.1474 - Intraday Resistance


1.1450 - 1.1465 - Supply Zone


1.1416 - Weekly Pivot


1.1413 - Intraday Support


1.1357 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


The day traders should wait for the range breakout to trade this market in the upward direction from the level of 1.1474. Please remember that the uptrend is still intact and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside. The SL orders should be placed below the level of 1.1338.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 8 - 2014

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Technical summary:


We have finally seen a break above 1.6000, which confirms that wave c higher is developing. Wave c is expected to be a very powerful impulsive rally higher to 1.6273 and 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6800 and possibly even higher to 1.7124. We have recognized this as being a rare expanded diagonal, where each of the waves are larger than the prior wave, meaning that wave iii is an 161.8% extension of wave i. Therefore, we expect the ongoing wave v to be an 161.8% extension of wave iii call for a strong rally higher to 1.7124. In the short term, we still need minor resistance at 1.6140 and more importantly resistance at 1.6273 to be broken to feel comfortable about the rally higher to 1.6446 and above. Ideally, we will now see support at 1.5980 protect the downside, but only a break below 1.5908 will delay the expected upside.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5830 and will move our stop higher to 1.5900. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5980 with the same stop at 1.5900.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 8 - 2014

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Technical summary:


The break above 149.13 tells us, that the ongoing correction only can be an expanded flat correction. We have seen wave a from 149.13 down to 145.58 and is currently in wave b, which should make it to the 150.10 - 150.48 area before wave c lower takes over. That wave (ii) becomes an expanded flat telling us what can be expected from wave (iii) once it will be ready to move higher again. After an expanded flat correction, we should always expect an extended wave, but first we need wave b and c to end wave (ii), so we should stay focused on those two waves. In the short term, it will take a break below 148.49 and more importantly a break below 148.11 to confirm that wave b is over and wave c lower is developing.


Trading recommendation:


We will sell EUR at 150.40 with a stop place at 150.65.


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Technical Analysis of USD/CHF for December 08, 2014

The stronger US data pushed the prices to the North. The US data rises the bets on the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rates sooner than later. This view added some more fuel to the US dollar. The yellow metal again closed below $1,200.00. The US added 321,000 new non-farm jobs in the month of November. The actual print is 90,000 more than the forecast of 231,000. It is the highest gain since January 2012 and up from the previous month’s figure of 243,000. The pair managed to closed above 0.9742 on a weekly basis. We still recommend using every dip to buy at 0.9820, 0.9874, 0.9970, and 1.0270. The pair made a high at 0.9800 and closed at the day's highest level. We are waiting to close above 0.9742 on a weekly basis for 4 weeks, now it has happened. I am expecting 200 pips on the North side. At the previous session, we recommended buying at 0.9720 levels which gave good money. Today, the pair was unable to break the previous day's high at 0.9800. We recommend fresh buying above 0.9800 with the targets at 0.9824, 0.9838, and 0.9870. On the daily chart, the prices make higher lows and higher highs. In case if the prices close above 0.9800 on the h4 chart, it can challenge 0.9840, 0.9850, and 0.9880 in intraday. For an hourly view, the prices are taking support at 35DEMA 0.9770, below this 0.9740 will act as strong support levels.


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Technical Analysis of Gold for December 08, 2014

The yellow metal erased half of its weekly gains in the previous week. On Friday, the US jobs data pushed the metal prices towards the South. The US data rises the bets on the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rates sooner than later. This view added some more fuel to the US dollar. The yellow metal again closed below $1,200.00. The US added 321,000 new non-farm jobs in the month of November. The actual print is 90,000 more than the forecast of 231,000. The highest gain since January 2012 and up from the previous month’s 243,000. The metal held the support at 35DEMA and managed to closed above 20Dsma. The metal has been facing strong resistance in the descending trend line on the daily chart. A daily close above this leads to relief rally towards $1,230.00. In case if the prices close above $1,212.00, we can expect $1,230.00 in the near term. But please note, the overall strategy remains selling on a rally. We recommended selling at $1,200.00 at Friday's session, it actually minted good money, a low was made at $1,185.00. We recommend fresh selling below $1,184.00 with the targets at $1,180.00, $1,172.00, and $1,170.00. On the higher side, we recommend buying only above $1,202.00 with the targets at $1,207.00 and $1,211.00. The prices are trading and closed below 35DEMA. It represents hourly bearish thoughts.


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Forecast of GBP/USD for December 08, 2014

The week starts with such an important report as German industrial production data. After a rebound in September, now we are expecting a decline. On Wednesday, French industrial production and non-farm payroll data will be released. We expect an uptick from French industrial data as compared to the month before. The major event scheduled on Thursday is targeted LTRO. This event turns this week to a key week for the euro zone. The LTRO is aimed for long-term refinancing operations. The nearest resistance exists at 1.2360; support exists at 1.2255 and 1.2240. In case if the prices fall below 1.2240, we can expect 1.2134 and 1.2045 in the medium term. The weekly resistance exists at 1.2362 and weekly supports exists at 1.2250. We recommend selling on every upswing. In case if the pair close below 1.2230 on a monthly closing basis, we can expect another 200-pips downfall. For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading below 12ema and 34hrsma. The cable has hourly support at 1.5560 and resistance at 1.5605. For an intraday view, until the price is traded and close below 1.5640, use every rise to sell. We recommend fresh selling below 1.5560 levels. After a huge consolidation, finally the pair gave a downside breakout by 200 pips to the south. For an hourly view, the prices are facing resistance at 35DEMA 1.2310, above this 1.2325 and 1.2350 are the resistance levels. The 34hrsma at 1.2385 is acting as strong resistance for an intraday view.


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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for December 08, 2014

It's a quiet week ahead for the UK. After a huge consolidation, finally the cable broke below the support level. It indicated a further downside journey in the coming session. We recommended selling on every rise and we are repeating the same this week. This week the major economic event, Manufacturing production data, falls on Tuesday, December 09th. The cable closed below the consolidated level. The nearest resistance exists at 1.5580 and support exists at 1.5500 levels. In case if the prices fall below 1.5500, we can expect 1.5430 or 1.5420 in the near term. On Friday, we recommended selling at 1.5660 with the target at 1.5585, the pair made a low at 1.5570. The weekly resistance exists at 1.5650 and weekly support exists at 1.5500 and 1.5430. We recommend selling on every upswing. For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading below 12ema and 34hrsma. The cable has hourly support at 1.5560 and resistance at 1.5605. For an intraday view, until the price are traded and close below 1.5640, use every rise to sell. We recommend fresh selling below 1.5560.


Support: 1.5560, 1.5525, 1.5500.


Resistance: 1.5590, 1.5605, 1.5640.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 08, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Bank Lending y/y, Final GDP Price Index y/y, and Economy Watchers Sentiment. The US will also publish some economic data such as Labor Market Conditions Index m/m. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 122.15.

Resistance. 2: 121.91.

Resistance. 1: 121.67.

Support. 1: 121.38.

Support. 2: 121.14.

Support. 3: 120.90.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 08, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Industrial Production m/m, Italian Bank Holiday, Sentix Investor Confidence, and the minutes of Eurogroup's meetings. The US will release the economic data too such as the Labor Market Conditions Index m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2351.

Strong Resistance:1.2344.

Original Resistance: 1.2332.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2320.

Target Inner Area: 1.2291.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2262.

Original Support: 1.2250.

Strong Support: 1.2238.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2231.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 8, 2014

EUR/USD: This pair became weaker as it went below the resistance line of 1.2400. The resistance line at 1.2300 has also been breached to the downside, and price is supposed to go further below, reaching the support line at 1.2250.


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USD/CHF: The currency trading instrument became stronger as it went above the support level at 0.9750 (which was our target last week). Price has closed above the support level, making the next target for bulls to be situated the resistance level at 0.9800.


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GBP/USD: The Cable closed at 1.5579 on Friday, December 5, 2014, on a bearish note. Price has gone below the distribution territory at 1.5600, making the Bearish Confirmation Pattern more visible. The accumulation territory at 1.5550 would soon be tested.


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USD/JPY: Last week, USD/JPY moved upwards by over 300 pips. This has come as a result of a great weakness in the USD and a great weakness in the Yen. The supply level at 121.50 is under siege and it may be breached to the upside as the market continues to exert its bullish strength.


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EUR/JPY: This cross also moved upwards last week; though the upwards movement is not as strong as the upwards movement on USD/JPY. Bulls may continue pushing price northwards. However, there is now a possibility of large pullbacks in the market (which is also true of other JPY pairs), and the pullbacks can be checked at the demand zones of 148.50 and 148.00.


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 08, 2014

On the daily chart, the USDX continues to consolidate in the bullish trend above the support level of 88.63, aiming to reach the resistance level of 90.40 in the medium term. That goal is likely to be achieved, because the USDX still has enough bullish momentum to climb to that resistance level. However, one can not rule out a retracement to the 88.63 level. The MACD indicator is moving into the positive territory.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 90.40 / 93.44


Dailychart's support levels: 88.63 / 87.35


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The USDX is forming a higher low pattern above the support level of 89.25, after this instrument has reached new high levels over the past week. The resistance level of 89.51 could have a breakout. Therefore, the USDX would rise to the level of 89.76, which would be another historical high level. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 89.51 / 89.76


H1 chart's support levels: 89.25 / 88.99


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 89.51, take profit is at 89.76, and stop loss is at 89.25.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 08, 2014

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to strengthen a bearish bias below the 1.5589 level, because this pair could not overcome the resistance level of 1.5698 and consolidated upward above that area. Now, the GBP/USD pair could find support at the 1.5512 level, where one bearish trend line is located on this chart. The MACD indicator is moving into the negative territory.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.5698 / 1.5811


H4chart's support levels: 1.5589 / 1.5512


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GBP/USD performed a pullback at the 200-day moving average, so this pair failed to consolidate over the resistance level of 1.5686 to start a new bullish bias on the H1 chart. Now, the GBP/USD pair is forming a lower high pattern below the resistance level of 1.5590 and is likely to fall to the 1.5534 level. The MACD indicator is entering the oversold area.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5590 / 1.5632


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5534 / 1.5501


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5534, take profit is at 1.5501, and stop loss is at 1.5568.


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