EUR/USD Technical Analysis for January 01, 2017.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/USD pair looks to be in the middle of two trade possibilities. I) The pair is seen to be trading at 1.0475 levels for now, which is also fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between 1.0375 and 1.0650 levels. A bullish bounce here could push prices higher above 1.0650 levels towards 1.0874 at least. II) A continued push lower from current levels, could bring back the long-term bearish structure into focus and EUR/USD should see parity levels sooner. The probabilities are evenly spread for now, with both bulls and bears wanting to take control from here. It is therefore recommended to remain flat for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.0380 levels, while resistance is seen at 1.0670 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 2, 2017

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On August 18 signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

The USD/CAD pair was trapped between the price levels of 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) until a bullish breakout took place one month ago.

Note that the USD/CAD pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

The current bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) will probably liberate a quick bullish movement toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel) where bearish rejection should be expected.

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Technical Analysis of Silver for January 01, 2017.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver looks to have finally bottomed out at $15.60 level, before turning higher. The metal is seen to be trading at $15.90 level at this moment and seems to have found support at $15.80 level, which is fibonacci 0.618 level of the entire rally as depicted here. Ideally, the metal should remain above $15.60 level going forward and should immediately target $17.20 level, if not higher. Please note that similar to Gold, the metal is carving out a counter trend rally which is likely to terminate above $21.13 level in the next few months. A break of $17.20/30 resistance would confirm that bulls are in control and every dip after that should be considered as an opportunity to go long. It is recommended to remain long now with risk around $15.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $15.60/70 levels, while resistance is seen at $17.20/30 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now, stop around $15.00 levels, a target is at $17.30.

Good luck!

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Gold Technical Analysis for January 01, 2017.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold seems to have made a meaningful low at $1122.00 level now and is just about to continue higher through $1,165.00/70.00 levels from here. The metal is trading lower towards $1,149.00 levels for now and should find support at $1,147.00/48.00 levels before turning bullish again. Please note that $1,147.00 is also fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between $1,125.00 and $1,163.00 levels respectively. Furthermore, please note that a push through $1,165.00 level would complete an impulse (5 waves) rally from $1,122.00, which confirms that the metal has formed a strong reliable bottom there. Immediate recommendations are to remain long from current levels with risk below $1,140.00 level. Immediate support is seen at $1,148.00 levels while resistance is at $1,165.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop below $1,140.00, a target is $1,165.00/70.00.

Good luck!

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Gold analysis for January 02, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,149.46 in an average volume. According to the 30M time frame and using the market profile, I found Friday's point of control at the price of $1,147.30. Besides, there is a buying climax in the background and the price didn't sustain the higher level, which is a major sign of weakness. According to the 1H time frame, I found a confirmed head-and-shoulders formation. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities on the pullbacks. Targets are set at the price of $1,145.00 and $1,137.15.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,162.30

R2: 1,168.15

R3: 1,177.45

Support levels:

S1: 1,147.00

S2: 1,137.50

S3: 1,131.90

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for potential selling opportunities due to confirmed weakness in the background.

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EUR/NZD analysis for January 02, 2017

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.5119 in an high volume. Using the market profile, I found Friday's point of control at the price of 1.5160. The intraday trend is bearish. According to the 30M time frame, I found a massive buying climax in the background (a major sign of weakness) and successful change in behaivor from bullih to bearish. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities on the pullbacks. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5060 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.4960.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.5090

R2: 1.5113

R3: 1.5150

Support levels:

S1: 1.5025

S2: 1.5000

S3: 1.4970

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 02/01/2017

Global macro overview for 02/01/2017:

According to the IHS Markit, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI figures are at the highest level since April 2011.The final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.9 in December (Flash: 54.9, November Final: 53.7) which was in line with expectations. Moreover, the largest eurozone's countries beat the market expectations: German PMI is at 55,6 (35-month high), French PMI is at 53.5 (67-month high), Italian PMI at 53.2 (6-month high), Spanish PMI at 55.3 (11-month high). In conclusion, the average for the final quarter (54.0) was well above that for the third quarter (52.1) and signalled the fastest growth since the second quarter of 2011. Moreover, the average PMI reading over 2016 as a whole (52.5) was the highest annual average since 2010.

Let's now take a look at EUR/CHF technical picture at the daily time frame. The market is still trading below the dashed blue trend line and another lower high in the sequence has been made. The bears might now try to push the market lower towards the next technical support at the level of 1.0679, but if this level is violated, then the next support is seen at the level of 1.0624. Only a sustained breakout above the dashed blue trend line would invalidate this scenario.

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Global macro overview for 02/01/2017

Global macro overview for 02/01/2017:

According to the Institute for Supply Management, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 54.6 points in the reported month after rising to 57.6 a month ago. Market participants anticipated a slight increase to 56.5 points, so they were surprised by worse than expected data. The main driver behind the fall is a slump in new orders, which fell 6.7 points to 56.5. It is worth pointing out, that any reading above the 50 points still indicates expansion in the business activity. The overall sentiment in the US after the presidential election is still positive as the majority of Americans expects the new administration to bring positive changes, so their businesses could benefit from them.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the 4H time frame. The sudden rally towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.0671 was stalled at the level of 1.0655, so the bull wasn't strong enough to break out above it. Currently, the market is back to the trading range and the next support is seen at the level of 1.0372.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair dropped from the level of 1.2346 to the bottom around 1.2240. Then it rebounded from the bottom of 1.2240 to reach the 1.2346 level again. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.2245, and the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.2346, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. If the GBP/USD pair is able to break the first support at 1.2245, the market will decline further to 1.2163 in order to test the weekly support 2.
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  • The pair will probably go down because the downtrend is still strong. As a result, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.2346 with the first target at 1.2240 and the next one at 1.2163. At the same time, breakdown of the 1.2350 level will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 1.2509. Overall, the pair will probably rebound again from the spot of 1.2346 as long as the level of 1.2428 is not breached. In general, we still prefer the bearish scenario below the area of 1.2428.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair has faced resistance at the level of 1.0514 because support had become resistance this morning. Besides, it should be noted that the weekly pivot point is seen at the same price of 1.0514. So, the strong resistance has already formed at the level of 1.0514 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0514, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new resistance level of 1.0514 (the level of 1.0514 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.05141.0374. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.0232 in coming days. The weekly strong support is seen at 1.0232 . However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0693.

Weekly key levels:

  • Major resistance:1.0796
  • Minor resistance:1.0656
  • Intraday pivot point:1.0514
  • Minor support:1.0374
  • Major support:1.0232
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 2, 2017

General overview for 02/01/2017:

The corrective cycle continues in this market. The 38%Fibo at the level of 1.3400 has just been tested and might act as an important intraday support. In case of a further corrective extension to the downside, the next supports are seen at the levels of 1.3340 and 1.3278.The longer-term outlook remains bullish unless the techncial support at the level of 1.03080 is cleary violated.

Support/Resistance:

1.3666 - WR2

1.3598 - Wave 1 Top

1.3539 - WR1

1.3470 - Weekly Pivot

1.3459 - Intraday Resistance

1.3400 - 38%Fibo

1.3340 - 50%Fibo

1.3278 - 61%Fibo

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should still consider buying the dips in this market as the upward wave progression is uncompleted.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 2, 2017

General overview for 02/01/2017:

The breakout from the triangle pattern looks completed with the local top at the level of 123.85. This top is labeled as wave -i- top, so now the market is developing internal intraday correction. The most important level is the weekly pivot at the level of 122.93 and intraday support at the level of 122.83. The bias remains bullish as there are unfinished waves to the upside.

Support/Resistance:

124.28 - WR1

123.85 - Intraday Resistance

122.92 - Weekly Pivot

122.83 - Intraday Support

122.04 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should still consider buying the dips in this market as the upward wave progression is uncompleted.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 2, 2017

EUR/USD: Bears made an effort to push down the market further last week, but that effort was rejected at the support line of 1.0400. Price went upwards 270 pips from there, topping at 1.0653, before retracing a bit. The rally has generated a bullish signal in the market and the resistance lines at 1.0550, 1.0600 and 1.0650 could be reached this week.

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USD/CHF: This pair went upwards from Monday to Wednesday, and then began to trend downwards seriously on Wednesday. Price dropped 250 pips to reach the support level at 1.0100 (it even went below it briefly), and then bounced upwards. A bearish signal has already formed in the market and a further downwards movement is expected this week.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair moved sideways last week, before making bullish attempt at the end of the week. The outlook is still bearish (unless the distribution territory at 1.2500 is overcome), and the distribution territories at 1.2200 and 1.2150 could be tested this week because a strong bearish movement is expected in the market.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is essentially a flat market in the short term. Price simply moved sideways last week, and a closer look reveals that some bearish momentum may be coming. When a strong movement occurs, it would most likely be in favor of bears, as price goes towards the demand 116.00 and 115.50.

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EUR/JPY: Just as it was forecasted last week, the movement of the EUR/JPY pair is determined by what happens to the EUR. Since the EUR made some bullish attempts last week, price went upwards, closing above the demand zone at 122.50, and generating a nascent bullish signal, owing to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

After a smaller than expected 38.2% correction in wave [ii], we are now looking for an extended rally in wave [iii] towards 1.5911.

Short-term, we expect minor support near 1.5080 will continue to protect the downside for a rally above resistance at 1.5235 confirming that wave [iii] is well under way towards the 1.5911 target.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5195 with stop placed at 1.4960. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5080 or upon a break above 1,5235 and use the same stop.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more correction in wave (iv) closer to 119.23 before the final rally in wave (v) of 3 towards 1.2654 is expected. The structure of the ongoing wave (iv) correction is already pretty complex and we expect that this level of complexity will continue throughout the entire correction.

The preferred corrective structure is that an expanding flat is unfolding and the ongoing wave c of (iv) likely will become an ending diagonal, but be aware that, we have a multitude of possible structures that can unfold from here.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a new EUR buying opportunity at 119.45 or upon an unexpected break above 123.85.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 02, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 116.60. The pair remains on the upside within its bullish channel. At the same time, the 50-period moving average is heading upward, and acts as a support role. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited. To sum up, as long as 116.60 holds on the downside, look for further advance to 117.25 and in extension.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 117.25 and the second one, at 117.50. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.40 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 116.10. The pivot point is at 116.60.

Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7265, 0.73

Support levels: 0.7155, 0.7115, 0.7055

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 02, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish bias as key resistance is set at 1.0215. The pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.9645 (Aug 17 top), which should limit the upward potential. The 20-period moving average is turning down and is likely to cross below the 50-period one in sight. Besides, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

As long as 1.0215 is not broken, the pair is likely to return to 1.0165. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness toward the next support at 1.0145.

Resistance levels: 1.0240, 1.0260, 1.0285

Support levels: 1.0165, 1.0145, 1.0115

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 02, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range as the pair movement is capped by a negative trend line. The pair has been capped by a negative trend line, and is expected to look for a lower bottom. The descending 50-period moving average is also playing a resistance role, and the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. As long as 0.6950 is not broken above, the risk of a break below 0.6915 remains high.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6915. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6895. The pivot point stands at 0.6950. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6965 and the second one at 0.6975.

Resistance levels: 0.6965, 0.6975, 0.7005

Support levels: 0.6915, 0.6895, 0.6845

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 02, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair has bounced up from another test of support at 143.85, which should limit the downside attempts. The rising 20-moving average just crossed above the 50-period one, which is a bullish signal. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as 143.85 is support, a further advance is expected with the horizontal resistance at 144.55. A break above this level would open the way to a further upside toward the next resistance at 144.90.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 144.55 and the second one at 144.50. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 143.55 if the price moves below its pivot point. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 143.15. The pivot point lies at 143.85.

Resistance levels: 144.55, 144.90, 145.60

Support levels: 143.55, 143.15, 142.50

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 02, 2017

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Final Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. On the US dollar front, the US will not release any economic data. So amid such an economic calendar, EUR/USD will be trading with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0576.

Strong Resistance:1.0569.

Original Resistance: 1.0559.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0549.

Target Inner Area: 1.0524.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0499.

Original Support: 1.0489.

Strong Support: 1.0479.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0472.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 02, 2017

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Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 117.48.

Resistance 2: 117.25.

Resistance 1: 117.03.

Support 1: 116.75.

Support 2: 116.52.

Support 3: 116.29

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 2, 2017

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On November 8, significant signs of a bearish reversal were expressed around the upper limit of the depicted consolidation range (0.7350).

The bearish breakdown of 0.7250 (the lower limit of the depicted range) enhanced the bearish side of the market toward the price level of 0.7100 (recent bottom of October 28) which was broken as well.

Bearish persistence below 0.7100 allowed a quick decline toward 0.6960 (BUY zone) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expected. All T/P levels were successfully achieved.

Once again, bearish persistence below the price level of 0.7100 enabled the NZD/USD pair to pursue toward lower target levels around 0.6990 (the upper limit of the depicted BUY zone).

The price level of 0.6990 failed to apply enough bullish pressure. Instead, bearish continuation was achieved toward the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone (0.6860) which provided significant bullish rejection on December 23.

The NZD/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until breakout occurs in either directions. That's why, the current price level (0.6960) should be watched for a possible bullish breakout.

Bullish breakout above 0.6960 will allow the pair to pursue toward the price level of 0.7100 as initial target.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 2, 2017

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The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (historical bottoms set in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (fundamental reasons). Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario toward the price levels around 1.2700 (Bearish projection target).

Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped inside the depicted consolidation range above 1.2700 until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why, a bearish projection target would be located around 1.2020.

Recently, bullish recovery was manifested around 1.2080. That is why, a bullish pullback was executed toward 1.2700-1.2750.

Risky traders considered the recent bullish pullback toward the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure above 1.2750. T/P levels should be located at 1.2300 and 1.2100.

This SELL entry should be monitored cautiously as the ascending bottoms around the price levels of 1.2120 and 1.2320 may apply significant bullish pressure against the supply zone of 1.2700-1.2750 thus threatening the suggested trade.

On the other hand, price action should be watched around the current price levels (1.2300-1.2260) where a previous top was recently established on October 19. Hence, bullish rejection is anticipated around the current price levels.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 2, 2017

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again in February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the depicted supply levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May, August, and October 2016).

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if the current monthly candlestick maintains its bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0575 is needed to pursue this bearish scenario.

In September 2016, temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 was expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was applied on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Closure below 1.1250 (supply level 1) maintained enough bearish pressure and enhanced the downside momentum toward the price level of 1.1000 (key level 1).

On November 9, an obvious bearish break of the 1.1000 price level occurred (Shooting Star daily candlestick). Moreover, further decline below 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expressed.

Bearish persistence below 1.0825 allowed a further fall to occur at 1.0570 (demand level) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expressed on November 24.

The price level of 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) constituted a recent supply level which offered a valid SELL entry on December 8. Stop Loss should be lowered to 1.0600 to secure some profits.

Bearish persistence below the depicted demand level around 1.0570 allows a further decline.

The first bearish target would be located around 1.0220.On the other hand, the price level of 1.0570 constitutes a recent supply level to be watched for a SELL entry during the current bullish pullback above 1.0500.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 02, 2017

The index ended the year below the negative territory, as it found support around 101.97, where a key demand area is located across the board. However, current moves should be taken as corrective ones, because the overall structure remains pointing to the upside and further gains are expected following New Year Eve's holidays. Next resistance lies at the 102.53 level and MACD indicator is favoring that scenario.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 102.53 / 103.15

H1 chart's support levels: 101.97 / 101.40

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 102.53, take profit is at 103.15 and stop loss is at 101.92.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 02, 2017

GBP/USD had a very volatile end of the year, keeping above the 200 SMA. The pair managed to consolidate gains inside a bulls' territory. In the short term, we can expect an attempt to break the resistance zone of 1.2384, which should open the doors to a rally towards the 1.2474 level, while a bearish scenario should be limited by the 1.2238 level. Bollinger band is also supporting the idea of further corrections, as the pair is hovering around the middle band.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2384 / 1.2474

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2325 / 1.2238

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2325, take profit is at 1.2238 and stop loss is at 1.2408.

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