GOLD Facing Tough Resistance!

Gold is trading in the red after another rejection from a major dynamic resistance. It has opened with a gap up, but the sellers have forced the price to close it. The yellow metal is trading at $1,615 and most likely it will challenge the $1,600 psychological level again before it resumes the upside movement.

Gold maintains a bullish outlook as the COVID-19 epidemic grows and makes new victims, the global economy is under threat, that's why Gold remains an attractive safe-haven instrument, the price could pass above the $1,703 high soon.

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Gold has decreased aggressively after another rejection from the upper median line (UML) of the major orange descending pitchfork. I've said on Friday that maintains a bullish bias and it could resume the bullish movement as long as it stays above the $1,600 level and above the median line (ml) of the dark blue ascending pitchfork, a valid breakdown below these levels will validate a potential drop towards the $1,555 level.

I want to remind you that a further increase will be confirmed only after a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) of the orange descending pitchfork and if the price stays above the $1,600 level and above the median line (ml).

  • TRADING TIPS

Gold has decreased in the early of the week, but it is still bullish as long as it is traded above the $1,600 and above the median line (ml). A rejection from these levels, false breakdown, followed by a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) will give us a chance to go long again on Gold, with potential targets at R1 ($1,686) level and at the $1,700 - 1,703 area. A valid breakout above the $1,703 high will validate a further increase on the medium to the long term.

As I've said higher, a breakdown and a consolidation below $1,600 could signal a drop on the short term, this scenario will take shape if Gold stays below the UML (orange descending line), the next downside targets are represented by the $1,555 level, S1 ($1,526) and by the lower median line (lml) of the dark blue ascending pitchfork. A potential drop could appear if the USDX starts another leg higher.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 30/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Following a warning from the national supervisory authority this month, UK regional authorities report that cryptocurrency fraudsters are using a coronavirus pandemic to deceive citizens.

In a series of consumer fraud notifications published in March, the City Council of Manchester and the Pembrokeshire and Norfolk counties repeated the Financial Supervision Authority (FCA) warning against "sophisticated" and "opportunistic" pandemic cryptocurrency programs.

Three regional authorities define a number of tactics adopted by cryptocurrency fraud to take advantage of social confusion and fear during the public health crisis.

"Fraudsters pretend to be from research groups claiming to be the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO). They claim to provide the victim with a list of active infections in their area, but to gain access to this information, the victim must either: click the link that will redirect her to the page stealing credentials, or make a donation for support in the form of a payment to a Bitcoin or Ethereum account, "warns Manchester City Council.

Meanwhile, the FCA emphasized that investment opportunities promising high returns, including investments in cryptographic assets, could again be popular in the current pandemic.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has broken below the technical support located at the level of $132.21 and made a new local low at the level of $123.11. This level will now act as a resistance for the price, so it is worth to notice, that is located very close to the short-term trend line (marked in black). Ethereum is trying to bounce after the new local low was made, but to make this bounce more important, the bulls must break through the level of $142.77. In a case of a failure, the lower levels will be tested, like $118.53 and $114.98.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $161.35

WR2 - $151.83

WR1 - $136.71

Weekly Pivot - $127.64

WS1 - $112.54

WS2 - $102.86

WS3 - $88.46

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 30/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has today teamed up with major Blockchain and technology companies to launch a DLT-based platform for sharing coronavirus pandemic data.

The MiPasa platform was built on the basis of Hyperledger Fabric and aims to enable "early detection of COVID-19 carriers and infection hotspots."

MiPasa was launched in cooperation with the IBM technology company, the Oracle computer company, the Hacera Blockchain corporate platform and the Microsoft IT corporation. The platform aims to facilitate "fully private exchange of information between individuals, state authorities and health institutions."

China has implemented Blockchain in many applications to support its efforts in the fight against COVID-19, using DLT to track the spread of the virus, medical records, and distribution of medical materials and charitable donations.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been rejected on the level of $6,863 and broke below the technical support located at the level of $6,271. This level will now act as a resistance for the price, so it is worth to notice, that is located very close to the short-term trend line (marked in black). Currently, Bitcoin bulls are trying to bounce after the new local low was made at the level of $5,825, but to make this bounce more important, the bulls must break through the level of $6,271. In a case of a failure, the lower levels of the red zone will be tested, like $5,605 and $5,500.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $7,805

WR2 - $7,343

WR1 - $6,514

Weekly Pivot - $6,022

WS1 - $5,217

WS2 - $4,764

WS3 - $3,965

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP/USD on March 30, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level of 1.2457 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle) the pair may begin to move down with the first target at 1.2258 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this line, the possible continuation of work down is towards the target 1.2096, a retracement level of 38.2% (blue dotted line). From this level, an upward movement is possible.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, a downward rollback is possible.

Unlikely scenario: from a retracement level of 23.6% - 1.2258 (blue dashed line) work up with a target of 1.2518, a retracement level of 61.8% (red dashed line).

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March 30, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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Since January 13, progressive bearish pressure has been built above the price level of 1.2780-1.2800 until March the 2nd when transient bearish consolidation below 1.2780 took place within the depicted wide-ranged slightly bearish channel.

Shortly after, significant bullish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2780 on March 4. Hence, a quick bullish movement was expressed towards the price zone of 1.3165-1.3200 where significant bearish pressure brought the pair back below 1.2780, 1.2500 then 1.2260 via quick bearish engulfing H4 candlesticks.

Recently, the GBPUSD has reached new LOW price levels around 1.1450, slightly below the historical low (1.1650) achieved in September 2016.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair looked very OVERSOLD around the price levels of 1.1450 where a double-bottom reversal pattern was recently demonstrated.

Technical outlook will probably remain bullish if bullish persistence is maintained above 1.1890-1.1900 (Double-Bottom Neckline) on the H4 Charts.

Bullish breakout above 1.1900 (Latest Descending High) invalidated the bearish scenario temporarily & enabled a quick bullish movement to occur towards 1.2260.

Next bullish targets around 1.2520 and 1.2680 are expected to be addressed if sufficient bullish momentum is maintained.

Please also note that the depicted negative divergence indicates a high probability bearish rejection to be expected soon.

On the other hand, H4 Candlestick re-closure below 1.2265 hinders further bullish advancement and enhances the bearish momentum on the short term.

If so, Initial Bearish target would be located around 1.1900 provided that quick H4 bearish closure below 1.2265 is achieved.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should be watching for more bullish advancement towards the price zone of 1.2520 - 1.2600 looking for signs of bearish rejection as a valid SELL signal.

T/P level to be located around 1.2265 initially while S/L should remain above 1.2630.

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US Congress adds another 2.2 trillion into the heat of the economic crisis; Overview of CAD and JPY

On Friday, the US Congress passed a stimulus package of $ 2.2 trillion (10% / GDP), and Trump signed it. This is the largest economic assistance package in history, and now, the markets need some time to assess whether the measures taken are enough to stop the main economic shocks of recent weeks, or whether the crisis will deepen.

There is no consensus yet. Stock indices are trading mixed on Monday morning, the Shanghai Composite and Nikkei225 are losing 1 to 2%, while the Australian S & P / ASX 200 added 7%, multidirectional dynamics are also observed on the government bond market.

The week will be marked by gathering information to assess the impact of the pandemic. On Tuesday, China's PMI data for March will be released and on Wednesday and Friday, the ISM in the US, and, of course, non-Pharma, which, judging by the sharp increase in unemployment claims, will be a failure.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar recovered some of the losses last week, considering the decline of more than 4% excessive. The growth of the Canadian dollar was facilitated by temporary stabilization in the markets, which is still unlikely to be long, and another wave of decline awaits the Canadian currency.

The Bank of Canada on Friday eliminated the gap with other Central Banks at a rate that reduced it to 0.25%. This rate level looks consistent within the framework of the cartel and is designed to reduce the speculative component of the yield spread. BoC also announced a large-scale asset purchase program, which will amount to 5 billion CAD per week.

Apparently, the strengthening of the Canadian dollar is temporary and partially compensates for large-scale measures by the Fed, but the lack of dollars will continue to be the main dominant topic in the coming weeks. The CFTC report showed that a short position continues to grow in all commodity currencies, and the Canadian currency is no exception, which means that he will be under pressure in the medium term at least.

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The corrective pullback to 1.3921 is 50% of the recent growth, and there is no reason to expect a further decline. Purchases at the current levels are justified and the long position can be increased with a decrease to 1.3760. The main scenario assumes a return to the growth of USD/CAD and a movement to 1.4660, which can only be prevented by the aggressive policy of the Central Bank, which seeks to keep currencies within the secretly approved ranges.

USD/JPY

The Japanese government is preparing to present an emergency stimulus package in April. This package will be presented in the form of an additional budget and achieved by increasing the issuance of bonds that are not needed by anyone except disciplined Japanese banks.

Not yet related to the coronavirus, the Japanese government had already adopted a package of measures for 26 trillion yen projects and 13.2 trillion last December. New spending expenses, including credit lines, will raise the volume of liabilities to 56 trillion, or 10% of GDP. The government is also considering measures such as distributing money to everyone, both adults and children, in order to encourage them to buy goods in stores and somehow support demand.

The CFTC report showed a reduction in the long position on the yen, but, nevertheless, along with the franc and the euro, the yen still has a positive balance against the dollar amid a total lack of the latter.

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The estimated fair price of USD/JPY pair is still much lower than the current one, but the incoming movement has already begun. Estimated and spot prices may occur around 106, but given that the estimated price has started to unfold, pressure on USD/JPY may turn out to be weaker and trading will go sideways.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on March 30, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, after reaching a retracement level of 61.8% - 1.1168 (red dashed line) the pair will try to move down with the first target of 1.1042, a retracement level of 23.6% (blue dashed line). If this level is reached further, down with the target of 1.0965, a pullback level of 38.2.% (Blue dashed line). From this level, the probability of an upward movement is high.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will try to roll back up.

An unlikely scenario: while moving downside, upon reaching a retracement level of 23.6% - 1.1042 (blue dashed line), the pair will move up, with a target of 1.1293, a retracement level of 76.4% (red dashed line).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 30/03/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been consequently moving higher and all the short-term technical resistance levels had been broken. The bulls have managed to almost hit the 61% of the Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2516 despite the overbought market conditions. Currently, there is still no indication of a local up trend reversal and the momentum is still strong and positive. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2308 and 1.2199. Please notice, that the larger time frame trend remains down and all the moves up will be treated as a local counter-trend corrections during the down trend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3952

WR2 - 1.3223

WR1 - 1.2933

Weekly Pivot - 1.2180

WS1 - 1.1877

WS2 - 1.1101

WS3 - 1.0804

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 30/03/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has broken out of the ascending channel and almost hit the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last swing down located at 1.1167. Despite the overbought market conditions the momentum is still quite strong and currently the market has pulled-back towards the technical support located at the level of 1.1074. The rally towards the 61% Fibonacci can still be continued as long as the level of 1.0961 is not violated. Please notice, that the larger time frame trend remains down and all the moves up will be treated as a local counter-trend corrections during the down trend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1885

WR2 - 1.1507

WR1 - 1.1380

Weekly Pivot - 1.1006

WS1 - 1.0876

WS2 - 1.0484

WS3 - 1.0325

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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The recession hit the leading economies; Overview of EUR and GBP

The past week has shown that the measures taken by Central banks in the fight against the consequences of the beginning of the recession are consistent. Despite the fact that these measures are hailed as a response to the coronavirus pandemic, it is clear that the origins of these measures are in a completely different area.

It can be recalled that a liquidity crisis began in the UK last September 2019. On September 16, bank applications for short-term Fed loans doubled, which led to an increase in interest rates from 2.29% to 4.75% and during the next day, the volume of applications increased to 80 billion, and the rate exceeded 10%. As part of the fight against the unfolding liquidity crisis, the Fed sent 366 billion to the financial system from September 16 to December 20, which was clearly not enough.

The coronavirus has only increased the problem, but it is not the cause of it all. And the reason that forced the largest central banks of the world, headed by the Fed, to assume the obligations of the "lender of last resort", that is, to start direct financing of the economy, is that the largest American banks stopped issuing loans.

Again, the pandemic has only added to the problem, as massive trade cuts and a stoppage in production further deprived banks of the incentive to create credit. This means that "temporary measures" undertaken by central banks to support financial stability will remain constant at least until economic activity begins to increase. This probability is practically excluded in the future for the next two to three months and it is clear from this that it is impossible to expect growth in demand for risky assets.

The forecast for the spread of the United States is disappointing – the number of infected people doubles every 2-3 days, while in Italy the doubling occurs in 8 days. doubling occurs in 8 days. Apparently, investors believe that the United States is sinking into a deep depression, the way out of which will be more difficult for the American economy than for Europe.

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The CFTC report which was published on Friday confirms this conclusion - for all, without exception, commodity currencies, as well as for oil, short positions are growing, which indicates increased pressure on them. At the same time, there is an increase in demand for gold, the euro and especially the dollar, which will turn out to be favorites for the coming week.

EUR/USD

Business activity in the services sector in the eurozone collapsed in March from 52.6p to 28.4p, which means a sharp decline in consumer activity, the threat of deflation and budget problems for most countries in the eurozone.

At the same time, the CFTC report showed that speculators continue to trade on the euro. The total long position increased by 3.8 billion, and even a strong pullback from a minimum of 1.0633 did not lead to a decrease in the upward momentum. The estimated fair price of the euro is growing steadily and is at 1.14.

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The EUR/USD pair is likely to resume growth. The nearest resistance is 1.1160 / 65, while the target is 1.1290 / 95. It is logical to use any pull back for new purchases.

GBP/USD

The pound, like the euro, made an impressive correctional growth, but its prospects are noticeably worse. The estimated fair price is above the level of 1.29, which gives some reasons for continued growth, however, the dynamics are deteriorating.

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It is possible that the local maximum of 1.2488 will not be broken through. The CFTC report suggests that the downward trend will resume and GBP/USD may return to the support zone 1.2120 / 40.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for March 30, 2020

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EUR/GBP has been under a larger corrective pressure, than we first expected and has declined through the 38.2% corrective target for a firm test of the 50% corrective target at 0.8890 (the low has been seen at 0.8904). To indicate the completion of wave iv we need a break above minor resistance at 0.8990 and more importantly a break above resistance at 0.9040. A break above the later confirms that wave v is unfolding for the final rally towards 0.9742.

R3: 0.9121

R2: 0.9040

R1: 0.8990

Pivot: 0.8962

S1: 0.8900

S2: 0.8874

S3: 0.8839

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 0.8910 has been hit for a 100 pips loss. We will re-buy EUR at 0.8900 or upon a break above 0.9040.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for March 30, 2020

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GBP/JPY has finally reached our ideal target at 134.52 (the high has been seen at 134.73). We are now looking for a break below support at 132.67 and more importantly a break below support at 132.10 to confirm that the correction in wave iv has completed and wave v is ready to take over for a decline towards 123.04.

That said, it should be remembered, that all that is needed is a break below 124.00 to fulfill all requirements to wave v, but for we should be looking for a break below support at 132.67 as indication that wave iv has completed.

R3: 135.50

R2: 135.04

R1: 134.30

Pivot: 133.45

S1: 132.67

S2: 132.10

S3: 131.77

Trading recommendation:

We sold GBP at 134.45 and we will place our stop at 135.45

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 30. Will the pound keep further optimism after a sufficiently large correction.

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Friday's pound growth continued after a slight downward correction amid news about the infection of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson with coronavirus. However, growth is gradually slowing, since breaking through the bulls above sufficiently large levels of resistance, without good reason, will be much more difficult than buying from the 1985 lows. At the moment, buyers will focus on maintaining support at 1.2335, since only the formation of a false breakout at this level will lead to continued growth of GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.2487, a breakthrough of which will provide a direct route to the highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686, where I recommend taking profit. In the scenario of further correction of the pound to the level of 1.2335, there is no need to rush to open long positions. It is best to wait for the 1.2150 support test, where the 50-day moving average also takes place, or buy immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.1985.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound sellers need to try to return the market under their control, and for this you just need to gain a foothold below support 1.2335. A breakthrough of this level after data on lending in the UK could lead to a larger sell-off of GBP/USD to the low of 1.2150 and 1.1985, where I recommend taking profits. Support test 1.1985 will also indicate the resumption of the bear market. In the scenario of an attempt by the bulls to resume the upward trend, only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2487 will be the first signal to open short positions. Otherwise, selling the pound for a rebound is best from the highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth of the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.2535 area. In case the pair falls, purchases can be seen immediately on the rebound from the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2170.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 30. What levels of optimism will be enough for euro buyers? Bears are counting

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The euro's growth to the next high of 1.1145 last Friday, from which I advised to open short positions, was formed after news came out that the credit rating of the eurozone remained unchanged at the level of AAA. Purchases from 1.0957 support, which are clearly visible on the 5-minute chart, also brought a fairly good profit. I paid attention to them in my Friday review. At the moment, the bulls should focus on the support of 1.1054, because the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to open long positions in the expectation of a return to the resistance of 1.1145 and its breakout. Consolidating above this level will lead EUR/USD to new highs in the area of 1.1231 and 1.1295, where I recommend taking profits. However, in the first half of the day, we expect data on the indicator of consumer confidence in the eurozone and German inflation, from which we can expect nothing good. For the scenario of the euro's decline below the support 1.1054, for long positions it is best to return to test the low of 1.0957, or just on the rebound from support 1.0880, the test which will mean a break in the upward correction.

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To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers coped with the task and did not let the euro go above the resistance of 1.1145, and the repeated test in the Asian session was a confirmation of the presence of bears at this level. At the moment, the task is to return and consolidate below the support of 1.1054, which will raise pressure on the euro and lead to a repeat test of the low of 1.0957, where I recommend taking profits. Weak German inflation data will help in this. In the growth scenario, contrary to common sense, which the market likes, above the resistance of 1.1145, short positions can be returned to the rebound from the resistance of 1.1231, or after the test of the high of 1.1295.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a continuation of the upward trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1170, and in case the euro falls, the lower level of the indicator in the 1.0975 area will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 30. Boris Johnson: the situation with the "coronavirus" can get much worse

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 183.5006

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its upward movement at the beginning of the new trading week, as evidenced by the Heiken Ashi indicator. Unfortunately, the situation with "coronavirus" in the world and separately in the UK continues to deteriorate. This means that markets continue to panic, and the world's economies continue to decline. At the moment, according to official data, about 20,000 people in the UK have already fallen ill, and the number of deaths is 1,231. However, as we have repeatedly said, this is only official data, not real data. Every government, for one thing, can underestimate the real numbers. Second, most of the infected population may not be identified at all. However, even with this number of patients, only sad news comes.

On the territory of the airport in Birmingham, a temporary mortuary will be built for those who died from "coronavirus". This decision was made in connection with a sharp increase in deaths from the epidemic in the Foggy Albion. At the same time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who himself recently contracted the "coronavirus" and is now in self-isolation in his residence in Downing Street, urges Britons to comply with the terms of the quarantine and do not leave their homes. "If a lot of people get sick at the same time, the health care system may not be able to cope with such a load. We must reduce the growth rate of infection and reduce the number of patients requiring hospitalization in order to save as many lives as possible. That is why you need to follow a simple instruction: stay at home," Boris Johnson wrote in an open letter to the public. Boris Johnson also gave another "optimistic" forecast: "I will be honest with you. Things will only get worse before they get better. The more strictly you observe the rules of quarantine, the fewer lives we will lose and the habitual life will return faster."

No important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled in the UK for Monday, March 30. However, important figures in the States will be published this week. So far, the US dollar continues to fall in price, but this process was preceded by strong growth in the dollar exchange rate. We still believe that the British currency can calmly recover to the levels of 1.28-1.32, from which, in fact, it began to fall. However, it is not necessary to talk about any logic of the movement of the pound/dollar pair (and other pairs, too). Therefore, as before, we recommend increased caution in trading.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair in the last four days has started to grow again from a minimum of 268 points to a maximum of 404. The average value is 367 points per day. This is a huge number. The activity of traders on the pound/dollar pair remains extremely high. On Monday, March 30, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2119 and 1.2785. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2207

S2 - 1.1963

S3 - 1.1719

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2451

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move up on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, purchases of the pound with the targets of 1.2695 and 1.2785 remain relevant now. The movement is strong, so you can exit the longs by turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to sell the British currency with the target of 1.1719, if the bears manage to overcome the moving average. We remind you that in the current conditions, opening any positions is associated with increased risks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 30. Donald Trump refused to impose a quarantine in New York state – the most infected

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 159.8508

The new trading week begins very well for the euro. However, this increase in the euro is not caused by positive statistics from the eurozone, but by the same panic that the markets cannot cope with in the last month. Coronavirus continues to draw in more victims. According to official information, as of March 30, the number of cases of the pandemic worldwide is 685,000. However, we are all well aware that the real numbers are much higher. After all, the figure of 685,000 clearly does not take into account the millions of inhabitants of the planet who simply did not pass the test for "coronavirus" or have already fallen ill, but do not yet experience any malaise due to the sufficiently long incubation period of COVID-2019. So there is nothing to be happy about. We have already suggested several times what might happen to the global economy and the entire world if the epidemic is not overcome in the next month or two. It is good that the death rate from the virus is low. However, this death rate can still mean hundreds of thousands of human victims around the world. Bad for the economy. According to various experts, the downturn may be worse than during the mortgage crisis of 2008 and even worse than during the great depression in America. Only this time, the depression will concern not only the US but the whole world. Forecasts of a global economic downturn vary from one to two percent, to 30-50%. And all experts agree that everything will depend on the duration of the pandemic. Doctors, and indeed all the inhabitants of the planet, have hopes that with the arrival of the warm season of the year, the virus will not be so acute. In principle, this is normal for most subspecies of the SARS virus or, more simply, the flu. However, no one can say with certainty that the level of diseases will go down in a month.

In the United States, 125,000 people have now been infected with the coronavirus. However, President Donald Trump does not consider it necessary to impose a quarantine in the country's most infected state of New York. It is in the state and city of New York that the largest number of infected and dead from the pandemic has been recorded. However, we have already realized that for Donald Trump, the economy is much more important than people. "On the recommendation of the White House task force and after several conversations with the governors of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, I directed the centers for disease control and prevention to issue urgent relocation recommendations for the population. At this time, no quarantine is required," Trump said. However, according to US media, it was the governors of the above-mentioned States who opposed Trump's initiative to introduce a "strict" quarantine in order to prevent the spread of infection to other States. For example, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said that the state has already introduced quarantine measures, and it is unacceptable to block new York since this will affect the economy of the entire country. Thus, it is very difficult to understand Trump's true intentions. Then the US leader calls for all Americans to abandon the quarantine and go to work in two weeks, then Trump wants to introduce a quarantine, but he is "hindered" by the governors. It is difficult to say what is actually happening in the highest power in the United States. In such a situation, it is best to pay attention to and respond to specific actions and measures taken by the US government. According to many experts, if Donald Trump cancels the quarantine, the epidemic will not just go to the second round, it will grow even faster. Although the States are already recording exponential rates of infection growth. They will only accelerate. Leading infectious disease specialists and epidemiologists of the country predict that there will be a shortage even of stretchers for all those in need. The health care system may simply collapse... It should be noted that despite the criticism of Trump, so far the head of the country is quite resistant to the epidemic. The 2 trillion-dollar measures to help the economy, coupled with weakening monetary pressure from the Fed, revived the stock market, which showed growth from a minimum point of 10%. However, according to many world experts, this is far from a victory. The most difficult part of the confrontation is ahead. We still need to put people and human lives at the top of our priorities. If Trump adheres to this particular priority, the economy will collapse and it is unlikely that he will be re-elected in November, because Trump considers his main merit to America to be the high economic growth rate, which could reach "pre-Trump levels" by November 2020. However, in the current situation, it is not clear what will happen in November. Maybe there will be no elections because of the difficult situation in the country. However, if Trump decides to save the country's economy for the sake of personal political ratings in the run-up to the election and is defeated, the States may enter a depression for years to come. Therefore, we believe that it is on the further actions of Trump that the prosperity of America depends. For all three years of his rule, Trump has shown himself as a President who is ready to act for the good of his country. His actions were not always approved, and perhaps no American President had as many enemies as Trump. However, right now, for the odious US leader, there comes no, not "hour X", but "period X". A period when you will need to make really good decisions, otherwise the country will collapse.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair continues its upward movement, as evidenced by the Heiken Ashi indicator. Thus, trading for an increase remains relevant. On Monday, March 30, the United States and the European Union are not scheduled for important macroeconomic publications. Thus, it is unlikely that traders will be affected by the macroeconomic background. However, the panic in the markets does not subside, so you should be prepared for sharp reversals and high volatility.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains at record high values, but still gradually decreases. The current average is 171 points and the last six days have shown volatility below 200 points per day. On Monday, March 30, we expect a further decrease in volatility and movement within the channel, limited to the levels of 1.0965 and 1.1307.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1108

S2 - 1.0986

S3 - 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues its strong upward movement. Thus, market participants are now recommended to remain in purchases of the euro with the targets of 1.1230 and 1.1307 levels until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to sell the EUR/USD pair not before fixing the price above the moving average line with the goal of the Murray level of "1/8"-1.0864. When you open any position, it is still recommended to be more cautious as the situation on the market remains turbulent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 30, 2020

EUR/USD

Last Friday, the euro made a reinforced upward push and consolidated on important technical indicator lines, which became supports, showing the intention to extend the upward correction. The Fibonacci target level of 1.1170 has not yet been reached, success, that is, a price exit above it, opens up the prospect of growth before a correction of 76.4% at 1.1295. A decisive breakout of the growing trend will occur after the price overcomes the embedded line of the price channel in the Fibonacci level of 38.2% in the region of 1.0965.

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A weak divergence has formed on the four-hour chart for the Marlin oscillator, but it is enough to reverse the price from current levels. Divergence can become double, for which the price will have time to work out the Fibonacci level of 61.8% or even overcome it with a subsequent turn down.

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In general, we see that a wide range of uncertainty 1.0965-1.1170/90 has formed on the euro, it is not advisable to open positions inside it.

Summary: we recommend that you keep purchases that were previously opened with consolidation on approaches to 1.1295, S/L 1.1030. The conditions are not ripe for new positions in any direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast of GBP/USD on March 30, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound added three figures on Friday, having worked the Fibonacci level of 138.2% on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered a growth zone, before the price, the target is open at 1.2540 at the Fibonacci level of 123.6%. The exit of the price above the level opens the next target of 1.2645. a price reversal from the Fibonacci level of 138.2% will allow the price to fulfill the target of 1.2235, consolidating below it opens the way to 1.1935 - the Fibonacci level of 200.0%.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator with a noticeable slope is turning down, probably a decreasing scenario, as a correction from growth since March 20, becomes the main one. The lowest correction is seen at the Fibonacci level at the price of 1.2235, consolidation below the level opens the prospect of deepening to 1.1935 at the Fibonacci level of 200.0%, which will also be 50% of the total growth from March 20.

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With the price overcoming the level of 1.2235, we open sales with the target of 1.1935, S/L 1.2310, with the release of the price above Friday's high of 1.2484, we open purchases with the target of 1.2645, S/L 1.2380. Due to the high volatility of the market, large sizes of restrictive stops, it is advised to work with low orders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on March 30, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian pound grew by 122 points on Friday, with the upper shadow marking the enclosed line of the price channel. Today in the Asian session there is an intention of the price to move down from the achieved resistance. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also touched the boundary with the growth territory and turns around from it. The purpose of the decline, in the case of a confirmed reversal, becomes the underlying price channel line in the region of 0.5838.

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The price exit above Friday's high could extend the aussie's growth to the upper embedded line of the price channel at the intersection with the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 0.6410. The MACD line also tends to this point.

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On the four-hour chart according to Marlin, a double divergence has formed, the sign of a reversal has strengthened.

Trading recommendations. It is advisable to open sales directly from current levels with consolidating profit in front of the level of 0.5838, S/L 0.6206. If the price goes above 0.6206, we buy with a target in front of the level of 0.6410, S/L 0.6113.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on March 30, 2020

USD/JPY

On the daily scale of the USD/JPY pair, the price has consolidated under the indicator lines of balance and MACD, currently quoted in the range of two embedded lines of the price channel (107.05-108.00). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has penetrated into the zone of negative values, into the territory of the downward trend. The price breaking the lower line of the price channel at 107.05 opens the target of 102.65. the price goes in the opposite direction, above 108.00, the target opens at 109.40 - the MACD line, which will also become slightly higher when the price rises.

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On the four-hour chart, the trend is downward for all indicators, and there is also confirmation of signal and target levels of the higher scale.

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Trading recommendations. With the price above 108.00, we buy USD/JPY with the target of 109.40, S/L 107.05. To consolidate the price under 107.05, we sell with the target of 102.65, S/L 108.00. Due to the high volatility of the market, long distances of restrictive stops, it is advised to work with low orders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDJPY reacting below descending trendline resistance! Further drop expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 66.634

Reason for Entry: Descending trendline resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 64.170

Reason for Take Profit: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 67.744

Reason for Stop loss: 88% Fibonacci retracement, Graphical swing high

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Preview of the week. Traders await US ADP report, as well as a new report on unemployment benefits

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The British pound is likely to remain in the turbulence zone in the new week. The reason is not in the macroeconomic statistics, but in the coronavirus raging around the world, which continues to affect everyone without exception. It is good that in 80-90 percent of cases, it does not cause complications, and the patient does not need hospitalization. However, as we have repeatedly said, the main danger of the virus is that there is no vaccine against it, it spreads extremely quickly and it is difficult to contain it even with the help of quarantine measures. For the world economy and the economy of each individual country, the epidemic is much more dangerous than any financial crisis. Because the epidemic, as it turned out in 2020, simply paralyzes the work of most businesses. Accordingly, the economy of any country simply begins to contract. As they say, "to break-not to build". The economy will shrink very quickly, but it will take a very long time to recover. Thus, we believe that the whole world has entered a stage of prolonged crisis. And we don't know how long the pandemic will continue, much less how long the global economy will recover. However, it is already clear that a rapid recovery is not expected. In fact, all of the above applies to both the UK and the United States. A large amount of macroeconomic information will be published in both countries in the new week. As before, the main focus will be on data for March. We will try to figure out which reports this week are worth paying increased attention to by traders.

There will be no important publications in either the United States or Britain on Monday, March 29. Thus, this day can be considered a semi-weekend. This does not mean that volatility will fall to normal values, as markets remain in a state of panic. On Tuesday, much more interesting reports will be at the disposal of traders, although by and large there is only one question - GDP in Britain for the fourth quarter. Since the fourth quarter does not include March 2020, this indicator has practically no value in these conditions. The forecast is 1.1% in annual terms and 0% in monthly terms.

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The index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector will be published on Wednesday morning, the forecast is 47. The hour of America will come in during the second half of the day... First, the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector for March will be released. The reduction is expected to be 150,000 – 170,000. The last time in the last ten years the reduction was by 30-40 thousand was at the end of 2017 . This is the only case since the 2008 crisis. But since the current state of things in the world is comparable to that crisis, we will turn to those figures to try to predict the current ones. So, during the mortgage crisis in the United States for 1.5-2 years, every month recorded a drop in the number of employees in the private sector. The maximum reduction was equal to 800,000, on average, each month the indicator lost 400,000. Thus, we believe that the real losses of indicators such as NonFarm Payrolls and ADP reports will be much greater than experts predict... And it is these failed reports that can be important for traders. Later in the day, the Markit manufacturing PMI will be released with a forecast of 49.2 and the ISM PMI with a forecast of 44.3.

There will be another crucial report for the United States on Thursday, and a report for further actions by their government - applications for unemployment benefits a week before March 27. Forecasts this time are more real - 3 million. However, in reality there may be even more of them, since the epidemic in mid-March has already gained momentum and began to progress at an exponential rate of growth. Thus, if a week earlier there were 3.3 million applications, then last week there could be 5-6 million.

On the last trading day of the week, data on business activity in the UK services sector with an "excellent" forecast of 35.7 are planned, and reports on NonFarm Payrolls (forecast -100 to 150 thousand) and unemployment in March (forecast: increase from 3.5% to 3.9-4%), indexes of business activity in the US services sector from Markit and ISM with forecasts "below the plinth" and the most "safe" data on average wages. Considering how many reports from the US this week may turn out to be disastrous and comparable with the crisis figures of 2008, both the euro and the pound can continue to grow. However, we recall that market participants can ignore all reports in the current state, so the technical picture remains the most important.

Recommendations for long positions:

The pound/dollar continues a fairly strong upward movement, and the levels of volatility remain panic. We recommend that you pay attention to the fundamental background, especially those reports that relate to March data for the United States. Nevertheless, more attention should be paid precisely to technical factors. There are no signs that a correction will begin at the moment, and the targets for long positions at the beginning of the week will be 1.2695 and 1.2785.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Preview of the week. Will Donald Trump stop quarantine in the United States and what will be the consequences?

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The new trading week promises to give traders the information they need to finally make a more or less clear conclusion. What specific cuts are waiting for each of the economies we are interested in? This week, official data on macroeconomic indicators for March will finally begin to arrive from the UK, the European Union and the United States. What can I say as a preliminary word? First, we are still not sure that market participants will pay attention to any statistics. Thus, most or all of the statistics can be ignored. Second, it is not clear what the real changes in each economy will be. We could see this from the forecasts of business activity indices last week and apotheosis - applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, the number of which was predicted at one million, but in fact it turned out to be 3.3 million. Thus, it is unclear whether market participants will be impressed by the discrepancies between forecasts and actual figures. However, we can definitely say that macroeconomic statistics will arouse interest.

We'll start on Monday. On this day, the most interesting reports will be published in Germany. More precisely, one report. Inflation in the preliminary value for March. The consumer price index is expected to slow to 1.4% yoy from 1.7%. Spain will also publish an inflation indicator. Based on experts' forecasts, the indicator will decrease from 0.7% yoy to 0.5%. And from our point of view, these are still optimistic forecasts. Several secondary indicators will be released from the European Union today, such as the level of consumer confidence and the index of sentiment in the economy, which did not cause any reaction from the market even in quiet times.

The preliminary value of inflation for March in the European Union will be published on Tuesday, which should fall to 0.7% per annum from the current +1.2%, as well as more important indicators of the unemployment rate in Germany for March with forecasts of growth from 5% to 5.2% and the number of applications for unemployment benefits with a forecast of 28 to 34 thousand. We believe that these forecasts are too optimistic and the real figures will be much worse.

Wednesday will be quite an interesting day, but most indicators can already be easily predicted. On this day, business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of the EU and separately Spain, Italy, Germany, France and the UK will be published. Most likely, they will not differ too much from the preliminary values that were published last week. Thus, we are only waiting for a small reduction in business activity in production. The unemployment rate in the European Union is forecast to remain unchanged in February at 7.4%. However, this is in February...

Everything will be relatively calm on Thursday, since only the publication of the EU producer price index will be released on this day, which almost never causes any reaction from the markets.

Business activity in the service sectors for March in Germany, Italy, Spain, France and the EU will be published on Friday, which is likely to fall to completely indecent values, as well as retail sales in the European Union for February.

What can I say about this week's European news package? In principle, no surprises are expected. Approximate values of business activity in various sectors are already known. All data related to February will not arouse any interest among traders. Thus, the most interesting reports will be German unemployment data for March. It is based on this report and the number of applications for benefits that we will be able to get an approximate picture of what is happening in the EU countries. We believe that the picture may strongly disappoint market participants. We have not listed in this article all the reports scheduled for release in the United States this week, they will be covered in the article "Preview of the GBP/USD pair". However, looking ahead, we can say that the greatest attention will be focused on macroeconomic statistics from overseas. In addition, there are a lot of different interesting processes going on in the United States, and there is Donald Trump, who even during the epidemic remains the main newsmaker in the world, regularly distributing comments on absolutely different issues and expressing his opinion on the topic of the epidemic in the world. We have already discussed Trump's opinion regarding the quarantine measures in the United States. Thus, one of the main intrigues now is whether the president will actually be able to lift the quarantine. Or will he try to do this? And if he does, what kind of resistance will the Democrats face? After all, the presidential seat is at stake now (elections in November this year), and the health of the US nation, and the American economy, which can significantly suffer, given the number of patients with coronavirus and the increase in their number exponentially. In general, we believe that all the most interesting things will happen in the United States.

Recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

Based on the listed fundamental data, we believe that the influence of the fundamental background will not be too strong. Thus, more attention should still be paid specifically to the technical picture of 4-hour timeframes. For both trading systems that we represent, longs are now relevant with targets around 1.1230 and 1.1307, but there are no signs of the beginning of a corrective movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Results of the week. Bank of England has exhausted all the main tools for influencing the economy

24-hour timeframe

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In our article on the EUR/USD pair, we said that a strong fall in the euro currency, and now an equally strong growth which has not even ended, is difficult to call reasonable and logical. Things are even worse in the GBP/USD pair. The pound has fallen 16 cents in ten days, and is now up ten cents in the past six. Thus, such levels of volatility are the best way to signal the panic state of the market. And of course, the main cause of panic is the coronavirus epidemic all over the world. The UK is no exception. The country has officially registered 17,000 cases of the disease, including Prince Charles and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. There is no question of any localization of the disease now. And how can you localize a virus that has already been detected in every European, British and American region and city? Thus, we now believe that the British pound can fully recover all the losses that it has suffered over the past month. The question is, what happens after? It is unlikely that after reaching the levels of 1.2800 – 1.3100, where, in fact, everything started, traders will calm down, and volatility will fall to the usual values. Most likely, either the strong growth of the pair will continue, or a new downward trend will begin. As we have repeatedly said, it is extremely difficult to predict the movement of the pair in the current conditions, so it is best to follow the trend on the 4-hour chart, where it is easier and faster to track all price reversals,which are now, fortunately, a little.

Last week, several more or less significant macroeconomic reports were published in the UK. The biggest surprise, perhaps, was the data on business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors. If the PMI for the services sector fell much more than experts predicted, immediately to 35.7 points, then in the manufacturing sector, the slowdown in business activity was only 3.7 points, to 48.0. Almost all other events and news of the week did not arouse any interest among market participants. For example, the next meeting of the Bank of England was held this week. Next - because recently the central banks of the leading countries of the world like to hold unscheduled and emergency meetings. However, no major decisions were made at this meeting. In principle, this fact did not surprise traders at all, since the BoE was not initially set to reduce rates below zero, and the asset purchase program was only recently expanded to 645 billion. Thus, no changes in monetary policy parameters were expected. Furthermore, the consumer price index in Britain for February was published this week, which is predicted to slow down to 1.7% yoy, but this data did not cause any interest among traders.

Thus, we believe that now more important events are taking place in the United States, where the number of people infected with the coronavirus is growing, but in addition to this, there is also the "Trump factor". We remind traders that US President Donald Trump, despite the fact that the epidemic is spreading rapidly throughout the country (30% growth would have been recorded yesterday), believes that all Americans should go to work after April 13. According to Trump, "the cure for the disease should not cost more than the disease itself." Probably, Trump believes that if the epidemic is allowed to spread freely in America, the population will sooner recover from the disease and recover faster. This cannot be said about the US economy, which contracts the more, the longer the period of quarantine is in the country. Fortunately for Americans, Trump cannot make decisions alone. There is Congress, Senate, and Democrats who are already in a state of open war with the current president. However, Trump's intention to end quarantine in spite of the fact that the epidemic can cover from 60% to 80% of the country's population looks at least strange. The economy is unlikely to accelerate if more than half of Americans leave on sick leave. However, we believe that this story is not yet complete. For Trump, for whom the economy is really most important, there is nothing left to do but look for ways to revive it. Otherwise, his political ratings may begin to decline in anticipation of the 2020 elections. Although, on the other hand, it should also be noted that we regularly write about a possible decrease in Trump's ratings, however, according to various opinion polls and studies, the ratings of the US president are growing, despite the epidemic. However, we would not make unambiguous conclusions that Trump would be re-elected. Now the situation in the world is changing too dramatically, and no one can predict what will happen in the world in a few months.

From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair starts a highly volatile swing. Since now it is impossible to say unequivocally that "the dollar is weaker than the pound" or vice versa, the direction of movement can constantly change. However, data for March will begin to be available to traders in April. That is, we will finally be able to estimate the losses suffered by the British, American and European economies over the past month. We will be able to assess the scale of the contraction in the economies of these regions, and if in a particular region the contraction is especially greater, this could be a factor in pressure on the national currency of this region.

Recommendations for long positions:

The pound/dollar started a strong upward movement and overcame the critical Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour timeframe. Thus, the upward movement may continue with targets 1.2626 and 1.2912 (immediate goals), but it is best to track the technical picture on a 4-hour chart.

Recommendations for short positions:

It will be possible to sell the British pound no earlier than the price consolidating below the Kijun-sen line. New targets for sell orders will be formed for the 24-hour timeframe on April 1.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Results of the week. United States came first in the world in terms of the number of people infected with the coronavirus

4-hour timeframe

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If you look at the chart of the movement of the EUR/USD pair for the period from February 20 to today, and compare it with almost any period before February 20, you can clearly understand what panic is. In principle, markets continue to remain in this state, as volatility remains not just high, but very high, traders still ignore most of the macroeconomic statistics, and trading decisions are made based on their conclusions and reasoning, which often do not correspond to facts and logic. For example, the US dollar is getting much cheaper. In total, the euro has risen in price by 500 points over the past six days. Is there any reason for this? Some might say: in the United States, the government has decided on an unprecedented package of assistance to the economy; stock markets have collapsed by 30% over the past month; oil has fallen to multi-year lows; and the number of people infected with the COVID-2019 virus has come to the top in the world. However, when the US dollar was actively rising in price six days ago, the situation was approximately the same.

The US stock market has already fallen by 30%, oil prices have already fallen to lows, there were already quite a large number of infected people in America, the Federal Reserve has already lowered the rate to zero and resumed the quantitative stimulus program. Thus, we can say that there were no reasons for the dollar to firmly grow. Simply, traders believed that the American economy would remain "on the horse" in any case, and the US dollar would remain forever. But as practice shows, the situation in the United States is now the same as around the world, and maybe even worse. The eternal American essence of "living in debt" can turn the country into a new debt crisis and collapse of the entire financial system. After all, all companies and businesses, and even ordinary Americans are closely connected to each other through loans. Therefore, when one sector of the economy falls, all the others start to fall as well. Thus, it seems that market participants realized about a week ago that everything is also bad in the United States and began to get rid of the dollar. That's all the logic of the currency market over the past month and a half.

Unfortunately, the coronavirus epidemic is still the main topic for the whole world. The COVID-2019 virus, although not a disease with a high mortality rate (no more than 5%), nevertheless, has an amazing survivability and a high degree of transmission. In fact, any quarantine measures are designed to slow down the spread of the virus, not completely stop it. In order to completely stop the spread, measures are needed approximately, as in China or South Korea. In other words, infected areas should be completely isolated without any exceptions. No one should be able to enter or leave. However, in democratic and liberal states and the European Union, this is nearly impossible. People will still move around cities and between regions. That is, the virus will spread almost in any case, the only question is how fast. For example, there are already 92,000 infected people in Italy, despite the fact that the country has long been under strict quarantine. But, as we can see, the doctors were right when they said that the number of infected people may already be much higher than officially stated. The problem is that the coronavirus can have a long incubation period, or it can pass in individual people without symptoms at all. At the same time, the infected person still continues to transmit the virus to other people, even if he does not feel any discomfort. Thus, if about 665,000 cases are officially reported worldwide, the real numbers are likely to be 3-5 times higher...

Last week, there were quite a lot of interesting fundamental events. However, unfortunately, it is impossible to say with certainty that any of them had an impact on the foreign exchange market. We would like to celebrate two events, both in the United States. First, the US Congress encouraged the decision to provide a 2-trillion package of assistance to the economy. This suggests that the American economy needs this help, and that the market will receive another 2 trillion in cash, and the US government's debt will grow by another two trillion dollars. Second, the report on applications for unemployment benefits, which showed an increase of 3.3 million. And it is unemployment that now causes the greatest concern in every country in the world. It is unemployment that can bury the economy. If people don't work, the economy doesn't work. And the economy is not a thing that can be put on pause, and when the epidemic is defeated, just resume its work. The economy will shrink and fall. Yet it is still possible to stimulate and to slow down the pace of the fall, but at a certain point, no monetary incentives will not have a positive effect.

Recommendations for long positions:

The euro/dollar has consolidated above the critical Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour timeframe. Thus, longs are now relevant with the goal of resistance level of 1.1282. However, it should be remembered that the market remains in a state of panic, which means that a downward turn can occur at any time.

Recommendations for short positions:

Euro-currency sales with a target support level of 1.0838 can be considered no earlier than closing quotes under the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines.

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