USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 12, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 on August 18.

Conservative traders should consider the current bullish pullback towards 1.3000-1.3100 (61.8% Fibonacci level) as a valid SELL entry. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure above 1.3100.

Daily persistence below 1.2950 (61.8% Fibonacci level) should be defended in order to enhance the bearish side of the market. Initial bearish targets are located at 1.2670 and 1.2580.

On the other hand, note that daily fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opens the way towards the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched for a better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 12, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That's why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 0.7400.

On July 12, the price zone of 0.7350 - 0.7400 (upper limit of the depicted channel) enhanced a quick bearish decline towards the price levels of 0.6960 where the current bullish swing was initiated.

The price zone between 0.7470-0.7500 corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted movement channel where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected by the end of last week.

S/L should be placed above 0.7550.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6960-0.6860 constitutes a significant support zone to be watched for a valid BUY entry if the current bearish swing extends below 0.7100.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 12, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts.

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario towards 1.2700 (the nearest bearish projection target) where price action should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if the current bullish pullback extends above 1.3550 (Significant Supply level to be watched as well).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 12, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On July 27, the EUR/USD pushed above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range). Hence, further bullish advance towards 1.1250 was executed as expected.

Temporary bullish breakout was expressed above the price zone of 1.1250 (supply level 1). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed on August 26.

Recently on September 6, evident bullish recovery and another bullish breakout above 1.1250 were expressed .

The price level of 1.1400 constitutes another supply level to be watched for a valid SELL entry if the current bullish breakout persists above 1.1250 (low probability). S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.1450.

On the other hand, Re-closure below 1.1250 (supply Level 1) is needed to maintain enough bearish pressure to enhance the bearish side in the market.

Initial bearish targets to be located at 1.1050 and 1.0990.

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Gold analysis for September 12, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,323.38 in a high volume. My take profit from Friday at the price of $1,326.50 has been met. According to the 30M time frame and using the market profile, I found point of control for today at the price of $1,327.80 (good level for selling). The Friday's low is at the same price as like today point of control, which is a sign that sellers are in control. Watch for selling opportunities. Downward target is set at the price of $1,314.30.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,333.50

R2: 1,334.00

R3: 1,335.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,331.60

S2: 1,331.00

S3: 1,330.00

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/NZD analysis for September 12, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.5419 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame and using the market profile, I found today point of control at the price of 1.5350 and Friday's point of control at the price of 1.5295. The trend is upward. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips. The level of 1.5350 (point of control) looks like a decent price to establish buy position today. Take profit levels are set at the price of 1.5420 and 1.5470.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.5340

R2: 1.5374

R3: 1.5430

Support levels:

S1: 1.5235

S2: 1.5200

S3: 1.5145

Trading recommendations for today: Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. Watch for buying opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 12, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD price moved upwards 150 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.1300 before getting corrected downwards on Thursday and Friday. It is expected that price would continue going upwards this week, therefore making the pullback of Friday a good opportunity to go long at better prices. The outlook on EUR is bullish, so you might want to watch other EUR pairs (some of which has already started moving upwards).

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USD/CHF: There are interesting factors which would contribute to a bearish movement of this currency trading instrument this week. The EUR/USD pair would go upwards, which would cause USD/CHF to trend downwards. USD itself would be weak and CHF would gather some stamina (please watch CHF pairs). This week, bears would target the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650.

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GBP/USD: The bias on the Cable is bearish in the long term. Some effort was made last week to push market upwards, but bears came in to push it downwards, as it closed at 1.3266 on Friday. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3100 would result in stronger Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. A movement above the distribution territory at 1.3450 would result in a bullish bias in the near term.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair dropped by 260 pips from Monday to Wednesday and then started going upward from Thursday and closing above the demand level at 102.50 on Friday. The bias on the pair, as well as other JPY pairs, is bullish for this week. Thus price could reach the supply levels at 103.50 and 104.00 this week. The supply level at 103.00 was already tested last week and it could be tested this week.

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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument went down 200 pips from Monday till Wednesday and started going upward from that day – an action which resulted in a bullish signal on the 4-hour chart. Price is supposed to continue going upwards this week, targeting the supply zones at 116.00 and 116.50. EUR would be strong and JPY would be weak.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 09, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 101.80. The pair is posting some consolidations after the downside breakout of its 20-period moving average. Nevertheless, a support base has been formed at 101.80 and the downside attempts should be limited by this level. Last but not least, even though a continuation of the consolidations cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. To sum up, as long as 101.80 is not broken, look for a further advance to 103.05. A break above this level would open the way to further upside toward the next resistance at 103.45.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 103.05 and the second one at 103.45. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.45 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 101.80.

Resistance levels: 103.05, 103.45, 103.90

Support levels: 101.45, 101.15, 100.80

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 12, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range as the bias remains bullish. The pair stands firmly above its horizontal support at 0.9705, and is trading on the upside. Besides, the rising 50-period moving average should push the prices higher. In addition, the relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50, but is mixed to bullish.

U.S. stock indexes plunged over 2% as recent comments by a number of U.S. Federal Reserve officials fueled speculation of the central bank raising interest rates this month the soonest. The U.S. dollar gained 0.3% to 95.33 producing a winning streak of three days and 0.5% in total. The Euro lacked steam to push higher even though European Central Bank President Mario Draghi downplayed the need for more stimulus measures.

As long as 0.9705 is support, look for a new rise to 0.9780. A break above this level would open the way to further upside toward the next resistance at 0.9810.

Besides, the relative strength index is still above its neutrality area at 50. Hence, as long as 0.9665 holds on the downside, we are positive and expect a new bounce to 0.9740 and 0.9770 in extension.

Resistance levels: 0.9780, 0.9810, 0.9850

Support levels: 0.9680, 0.9645, 0.9610

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 12, 2016

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NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair remains bearish below its horizontal resistance at 0.7375. Meanwhile, the descending 50-period moving average also plays a resistance role, and should limit the upside attempts. Furthermore, the relative strength index is below its neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as 0.7375 holds on the upside, the pair is likely to drop to 0.7310 at first, if breakout, look for further decline to 0.7270 as possible.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.770. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7235. The pivot point stands at 0.7375. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7410 and the second one, at 0.7435.

Resistance levels: 0.7410, 0.7435, 0.7480

Support levels: 0.7270, 0.7235, 0.7190

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 12, 2016

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GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair has been on the downside within its descending channel since September 6, and is likely to post a new drop. The downside momentum is further reinforced by its bearish 50-period moving average, which maintains the strong selling pressure. In addition, the relative strength index is below its neutrality area at 50, and lacks upward momentum. To sum up, as long as 136.40 is not surpassed, look for further downsides to 135.00 at first.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 135. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7295. The pivot point stands at 0.7485. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7350 and the second one, at 0.7295.

Resistance levels: 137.10, 137.80, 138.35

Support levels: 135.00, 134.50, 133.75

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Global macro overview for 12/09/2016

Global macro overview for 12/09/2016:

According to the Cabinet Office data, the Core Machinery Orders from Japan rose unexpectedly in July. Despite expectations of market participants, the core machinery orders increased by a seasonally adjusted 4.9% in July, way above the -3.5% anticipated number, but still lower than last month reading of 8.3%. The Bank of Japan will conduct a comprehensive review of monetary policy at its upcoming meeting on September 20-21, so maybe some BoJ policy-maker will explain why they are still chasing the 2% inflation target while all the data is showing the complete opposite action. As we remember the BoJ introduced the negative interest rate in January 2016, which proved later to be a very unpopular move among the market participants.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the daily time frame. The technical resistance at the level of 103.99 was clearly rejected, the market reversed and now is trading around 55 DMA at the level of 102.23. There is no signs of a downtrend reversal and bears have a total control over this market. The next support is seen at the level of 99.55 99.01.

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Global macro overview for 12/09/2016

Global macro overview for 12/09/2016:

According to the UK Office for National Statistics,the country's trade deficit narrowed slightly less than market participants expected in July. The trade gap decreased to 4.5 billion pounds in July, compared to the previous month's upwardly revised gap of 5.6 billion pounds, whereas market analysts expected the trade deficit to narrow to 4.1 billion pounds in the reported month. In this situation, the economists must take into the account, that the British Pound has substantially dropped after the Brexit referendum, but the ONS stated, that it is still too early to fully assess the impact of Brexit. In conclusion, the narrowing of the Britain's trade deficit might suggest the economy will still expand in third quarter, but the risks to the downside are still present.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. The market is still trading above all of the moving averages, but still no meaningfull breakout has been made so far. The next support is seen at the level of 1.3062 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 1.3536.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 12, 2016

General overview for 12/09/2016:

The quite strong rebound in this pair has reached the level of 78%Fibo and had been labeled as a complex corrective structure. Please notice, that any violation of the level of 1.3147 will result in immediate invalidation of the current count, especially wave a purple will not be labeled as the impulsive structure, but more possibly as a zig-zag pattern. Moreover, the growing bearish divergence is still supporting the main count.

Support/Resistance:

1.3155 - WR1

1.3147 - Intraday Resistance

1.3077 - 78%Fibo

1.2994 - Weekly Pivot

1.2935 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider to refrain from trading for now and wait for a better trading setup to occur shortly.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 12, 2016

General overview for 12/09/2016:

The top for the possible wave (i) of the new upward cycle had been established at the level of 115.94 and it will now act as an intraday resistance. Currently, the market is in a corrective cycle, trading just around the weekly pivot at the level of 115.15. One more sub wave is expected in order to complete this cycle and then the price should rebound to the upside. Invalidation of this scenario comes with violation of the intraday support at the level of 113.85.

Support/Resistance:

112.82 - WS1

113.85 - Intraday Support

115.15 - Weekly Pivot

115.94 - Intraday Resistance

116.36 - Local High

116.52 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider to buy the dips with this market with Sl below the level of 113.85 and TP open for now.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 12, 2016

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Overview:

  • Last week, the GBP/USD pair falled from the level of 1.3444 to the top around 1.3240 and closed at the price of 1.3266. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3189 followed by 1.3113, while daily resistance is seen at 1.3393. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3189 and 1.3393; for that we expect a range of 204 pips in coming days. This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend reversal signs. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3317, we should see the pair climbing towards the first resistance at 1.3393 in order to test it. Besides, it should be noted that the double top is seen at the point of 1.344. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the second support level of 1.3113, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 1.3113.

Intraday technical levels:

  • R3: 1.3597
  • R2: 1.3521
  • R1: 1.3393
  • PP: 1.3317
  • S1: 1.3189
  • S2: 1.3113
  • S3: 1.2985

Observations:

  • Volatility: 210.01. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility,
  • Range: 204 pips
  • Risk of 204 pips must make a profit of 306 (a risk to reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended).
  • The resistance levels are seen at 1.1393 - 1.3444. (Sellers are asking for a high price).
  • The support levels are seen at 1.3113 - 1.3189 (Buyers are bidding at a lower price).
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 12, 2016

Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1137 and 1.1324. Besides, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.1326 and 1.1139 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. Last week, the market moved from its top at 1.1326 and continued to fall towards the top of 1.1198. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.1326, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.1326 (the level of 1.1326 coincides with the double top too). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.1326 with the first target at 1.1140. If the trend breaks the support level of 1.1140, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 1.1045 in order to test the daily support 2. On the other hand, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set above the first resistance of 1.1326.
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Intraday technical levels:

  • R3: 1.1513
  • R2: 1.1419
  • R1: 1.1326
  • PP: 1.1232
  • S1: 1.1139
  • S2: 1.1045
  • S3: 1.0952
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 12, 2016

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Wave summary:

The rally from 1.4989 continues to make headway. This has made us reconsider our previous working count of a triangle and instead we favor an ending diagonal unfolding. Under this count, prices will ideally stay below minor resistance at 1.5520 for a final decline towards 1.4815.

An unexpected break above 1.5520 will question this scenario, while a break above 1.5642 will invalidate this possibility and indicate that a long-term low has already been seen at 1.4989.

Trading recommendation:

We will sell a break below 1.5272 and place stop at 1.5525 and take profit at 1.4850.

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Technical analysis of USDX for September 12, 2016

As I mentioned last week, the Dollar index was expected to move towards the upper cloud boundary near 95.50-95.60. The bounce was incomplete. Price shows rejection signs at very important levels. The 94.50-94.70 area remains of critical importance for traders.

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Black line - resistance trend line

Blue line - critical support trend line

The Dollar index has reached the black trend line resistance and got rejected. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud while the stochastic oscillator is turning lower from overbought levels. The signs are not good for Dollar bulls as there seems to be not enough strength to break above the resistance.

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Green line - trend line support

On a daily basis price has reached the lower cloud boundary but there are signs of rejection. The green trend line is critical support and is found at 94.50-94.70 area. The cloud body is about to turn red with price below the Kumo. This is another bearish sign. A break below the green trend line will put a lot of pressure to Dollar bulls and we might even see a push below 92.

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Wave analysis of Gold for September 12, 2016

Gold price has declined towards $1,320 and has reached so far as low as the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,302 to $1,353. Price is still trapped inside the $1,300-$1,375 range while making higher lows, giving bulls slightly more chances of success than bears.

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Stochastic is oversold turning higher, price is above the 4-hour cloud, support is at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and resistance is at $1,338. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above the cloud. The bullish scenario remains valid as long as price is above $1,302. However bulls will need to break eventually above $1,375 because another rejection at $1,350-70 area will increase the chances of a big pullback towards $1,200-$1,180.

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Black line - trend line support

The daily candles are inside the Kumo area of neutrality. Price remains above the black trend line support. The upward move that started from $1,302 could very well be wave B or just waves a and b of B, implying that a new higher high will come but not above $1,375 and then we will see a deeper correction towards $1,200.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 12, 2016

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Wave summary:

We have seen the break above 115.68 adding confidence in our bullish outlook, but it has not yet been confirmed. Short term, we could see a minor dip to 114.60 before the next rally above minor resistance at 115.95 and more importantly above 116.37 to confirm the next impulsive rally higher towards at least 118.09.

Only an unexpected break back below support at 113.80 will question the bullish outlook, but only a break below 112.33 will invalidate the bullish outlook and indicate a triangle consolidation has been unfolding since the 109.49 low.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 114.70 with stop placed at 113.75. We will keep our second buy-order at 116.40 (one order done cancels the other).

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 12, 2016

The index gained a bullish momentum during Friday's session and now it's finding resistance at the 94.59 level. We're expecting to see a bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA on H1 chart during this week as the greenback's strengthening could remain alive before the next Fed meeting. MACD indicator is showing overbought levels and it could decline towards the 94.78 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.49 / 95.79

H1 chart's support levels: 94.78 / 94.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.78, take profit is at 94.29 and stop loss is at 95.27.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 12, 2016

The pair extended the corrective move to the downside towards the support level of 1.3258, which is slightly below the 200 SMA zone. Around that area, we should expect a rebound to resume the bullish bias and that is likely, as GBP/USD has been trying to keep above the lows from August 30th session. The next resistance is placed at the 1.3360 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3360 / 1.3480

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3258 / 1.3116

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3360, take profit is at 1.3480 and stop loss is at 1.3240.

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