Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 22, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair returned to a slow upward bias by closing again around 148.80. Let me remind you that consolidating above 147.35 support is forming the main factor to confirm the bullish bias domination. We are waiting to a rally towards 150.00 in the near term. Breaching this level will allow the price to record more targets by moving towards 151.50, followed by 152.85 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 148.20 and 150.00

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for November 22, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair is trading with a quiet bearish bias to approach the key support 111.90 gradually. We are waiting until the pair breaks this level to confirm a further bearish wave towards our next target at 111.00. In general, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend in the upcoming period supported by the EMA50 that reinforces further trading inside the bearish channel that appears on the chart. Please note that breaching 113.00 – 113.15 levels will lead the price to return to the main bullish trend again and stop the current bearish correction. The expected trading range for today is between 111.50 support and 113.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Gold for November 22, 2017

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Overview

Gold price is still fluctuating around 1,281.17, settling inside the minor bullish channel. This keeps the chances valid to continue the bullish trend on the intraday- and short-term basis. We are waiting to confirm breaching the mentioned level to push the price towards 1,299.20 initially. Stochastic shows weakness of the bullish momentum that might cause more sideways fluctuation amid the bullish bias. On the whole, we still suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions conditioned by holding above 1,273.00. Let me remind you that breaching 1,299.20 will extend Gold gains to reach 1,321.50 directly. The expected trading range for today is between 1,272.00 support and 1,295.00 resistance.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for November 22, 2017

USD/CAD has been quite bearish recently after being quite corrective with the bullish gains which leads the price to surge up towards the resistance area of 1.2770-1.2860. CAD has been struggling with the gains against USD due to recent worse economic reports and upcoming USD rate hike possibility which shifted the market sentiment towards the USD side. Today, USD Core Durable Goods Orders report was published as expected at 0.4% from the previous value of 1.1%. The Unemployment Claims report was published with a decrease to 239k from the previous figure of 252k which was forecasted to be at 241k and Durable Goods Orders report was published with deficit at -1.2% from the previous value of 2.0% which was expected to be at 0.4%. Additionally, the revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is yet to be published which is expected to increase to 98.2 from the previous figure of 97.8. The revised UoM Inflation Expectation is expected to have greater value from the previous value of 2.6%. The Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to be negative at -1.4M which previously was at 1.9M. The Natural Gas Storage is expected to have greater deficit at -51B from the previous figure of -18B. Beside, the minutes of the FOMC Meeting is also going to be published today which is expected to be a positive factor for USD. Meanwhile in Canada, there are no economic reports or events today but tomorrow the Core Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.9% from the previous negative value of -0.7% and the Retail Sales report is also expected to show an increase to 0.9% from the previous negative value of -0.3%. As of the current scenario, USD had been quite neutral with the published report today and upcoming economic events and reports are expected to have mixed impact on the currency whereas FOMC may play a vital part which may help to regain the bullish bias of the pair. Alongside, CAD has been forecasted to have significant growth in the upcoming economic reports which is expected to strengthen the economy as well as help in the upcoming gains against USD. To sum up, the market sentiment is currently leaned towards USD as a rate hike in December is highly probable, but CAD also have good potential to gain momentum against USD in the coming days. Currently it is a matter of time which will disclose the upcoming directional movement for the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the resistance area of 1.2770-1.2860 which is currently expected to show some bearish pressure towards 1.2450 support area in the coming days. The price has been quite volatile and corrective with the recent bullish gains which indicates an imminent strong counter move in this pair which is expected to lead to further gains on the bearish side. As the price remains below 1.2770-1.2860 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of Silver for November 22, 2017

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Overview

Silver is again trading in a tight range. The metal aims to move around 17.00 level again. Please note that settling above 16.56 represents the most important condition to continue the recently suggested bullish scenario. We are waiting until the metal gains strong momentum that supports the chances of breaching 17.43 level. This will open the way to extend the bullish wave towards 18.30. Therefore, the overall bullish trend will remain valid unless breaking 16.56 level and holding with a daily close below it. The expected trading range for today is between 16.80 support and 17.20 resistance.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 22, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $8.226. A principal regulator in the Philippines has announced: "The direction is for us to consider this so-called virtual currencies offerings as possible securities in which case we will apply the Securities Regulation Code," the country's Commissioner, Emilio Aquino, of its Securities and Exchange Commission (PhSEC), signaled on 21 November. The movement towards proper legalization comes after much consideration and monitoring, along with consultation with its central bank. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, I found that price is trading above the pivot level ($8.079), which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found oversold stochastic, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $8.396 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of $8.660 (pivot resistance 2).

Support/Resistance

$8.079 – Pivot level

$8.396 – Pivot resistance 1

$8.660 – Pivot resistance 2

$7.814 – Pivot support 1

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USD/JPY analysis for November 22, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 111.94. According to the 15M time – frame, I found a series of lower lows and lower highs, which is a sign tha sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 111.65 and at the price of 111.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 112.70

R2: 112.96

R3: 113.23

Support levels:

S1: 112.17

S2: 111.91

S3: 111.64

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 22/11/2017

The US Dollar's currency strength was slightly higher against the British Pound (-0.1 percent), which in yesterday's trade gained the unmatched component of the main currency basket. Just before noon, the GBP was under pressure from the Bank of England members who for a moment stopped the prospect of further strengthening. A series of interesting headlines began with Jon Cunliffe remaining skeptical about the power of price processes, as his forecasts clearly point to the inflationary outlook for the fourth quarter of 2017. Cunliffe is clearly concerned about the pace of remuneration in the coming quarters, which can not be said for Gertjanie Vlieghe expecting a wage jump to 3.0% y / y. Comments on the condition of the labor market are supplemented by Ian McCafferty's statement that the NAIRU's unemployment rate may be below 4.5%. Further comments by the BoE have been made by Michael Saunders, who is expecting a gradual and limited tightening in the absence of any promises of a rate hike.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The GBP was not impressed by the BoE members comments and did not move as much as market participants might have expected. The price still trades above the dashed black trend line, slightly above the technical support at the level of 1.3220. The key technical resistance for bulls is still the zone between the levels of 1.3321 - 1.3342, but a lack of the upward momentum makes it rather tough nut to crack now.

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Global macro overview for 22/11/2017

An interesting statement was released by the Swedish central bank, Riksbank. According to it "high and rising household indebtedness currently poses the greatest risk to the Swedish economy." Moreover, we can read that "it is important therefore that the proposal for a stricter amortization requirement is put in place. It is also important to implement measures within housing and tax policies to increase the resilience of the household sector and reduce the risks. A slower rate of price increase for housing will contribute to a more stable development on the housing market and a slower rate of increase in household debt."

Riksbank sees slowed rate of increase in housing prices is positive as households are sensitive to shocks as the debt has continued to increase more rapidly than household income. Moreover, the banking system's exposure to property makes it vulnerable which is why is important for the banks to have self-insurance by holding adequate liquidity reserves so that they can manage the liquidity risks they take in their operations.

Let's now take a look at the USD/SEK technical picture after the statement was released. The Swedish Krona is appreciating across the board as the price has reversed from the local highs at the level of 8.5268 and broke below the technical support at the level of 8.4461. Moreover, the momentum indicator is below its fifty level and it is pointing down as the price is coming off the overbought conditions. The next technical support is seen at the level of 8.3665.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 22, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading 1.1740. According to the 15M time - frame, I found successful rejection from pivot level at the price of 1.1735, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a broken supply trendline and a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1759 (pivot resistance 1), 1.1780 (pivot resistance 2) and at the price of 1.1804 (pivot resistance 3).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1759

R2: 1.1780

R3: 1.1804

Support levels:

S1: 1.1715

S2: 1.1692

S3: 1.1670

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buyingg opportunities.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 22, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD continues to drift sideways/corrective manner and should soon be finding a bottom around 1.1670/80 levels as we have been discussing lately. Please note that the drop from here could be very swift and prices should not stay there for more time and that the rebound could be very sharp. The overall wave structure favors a 5-3-5 or a 3-3-5 larger correction that began from 1.2092 levels earlier. An immediate gartley structure indicates that EUR/USD should rally towards 1.1950/70 levels from 1.1670/80 levels or so. Price resistance is seen at 1.1880/1.1900 levels while support is seen at 1.1550 levels respectively. We are expecting a short term dip and then rally in the above counter.

Trading plan:

Please look to buy around 1.1670/80 levels, with risk at 1.1550 and target 1.1970.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index continues to drift in a rising channel since last several days, looking to find resistance around the 94.40/50 levels as wave B termination point highlighted here. Price may move swiftly towards 94.40/50 levels before dropping lower again towards 92.60/93.00 levels respectively. The overall wave structure is indicating a 5-3-5 corrective structure in the making since bottom formation around 91.00 levels earlier. Also please note that the correction could last longer and push higher towards 98.00/99.00 levels going forward. This chart is a wonderful case study for an up Gartley i the making. Price resistance is seen through 95.15 levels while support comes strongly around 92.80 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please look to sell around 92.40/50, stop 95.15 and target 92.60

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for USD Durable goods at 0830 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 22, 2017

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Overview:

  • Right now the price is moving around the spot of 0.9910 and 0.9870. There are no changes in my technical outlook because the markets seem stable. The USD/CHF faces a minor resistance at the level of 0.9910, while the strong resistance is seen at 0.9966.
  • Support levels are found at the 0.9870 and 0.9782. Today, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from 0.9910. The pair could fall from 0.9910 level to the first support around 0.9870. In consequence, if the USD/CHF pair breaks support at 0.9870, this level will turn into resistance today.
  • In the H4 time frame, the 0.9910 level is expected to act as minor resistance.
  • We expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.9910 level towards the target at 0.9870. In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.9870 level, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.9870 level in order to reach the second target at 0.9782. On the other hand, the 0.9782 mark remains a significant support zone. We still prefer the bullish scenario above the area of 0.9870.
  • The trend will probably rebound again from 0.9782 as long as this level is not breached.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 22, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD didn't make significant movement yesterday. There are no changes in my technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.6070 or lower. The NZD/USD pair hit the new low at the level of 0.6779. Today, the NZD/USD pair probably will continue to move downwards from the level of 0.6800. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6800 to the bottom around 0.6779. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6800 followed by 0.6943, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.6779. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.6800 and 0.6703; for that, we expect a range of 97 pips (0.6800 - 0.6703). If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.6800, the market will decline further to 0.6779 again. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.6703 with a view to testing the daily pivot point. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.6943, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 22, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.9875. Despite a pullback made by the pair posting from 0.9945 (highs of November 16 and 21), a support base at 0.9900 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Hence, as long as 0.9875 is not broken, look for a rebound to 0.9940 and even to 0.9960 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9875, Take Profit: 0.9940

Resistance levels: 0.9940, 0.9960, and 0.9980

Support levels: 0.9850, 0.9830, and 0.9800

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 22, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, the evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, a significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hinders further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry. ( Note the shooting-star daily candlestick of Wednesday).

S/L should be placed above 1.1900. T/P levels to be located at 1.1700, 1.1590 and 1.1500.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 22, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 provided that bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ). Otherwise, further bearish decline would be expected towards 0.6680.

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Bitcoin analysis for 22/11/2017

Gary Vaynerchuk at ComplexCon revealed his vision of Bitcoin's future and blockchain technology.He is a well-known entrepreneur, president, and co-founder of VaynerMedia, a digital agency serving Fortune 500 clients. Gary admits that he understands the theories behind the technology, but has not spent much time delving into applications and solutions. For now, there are no plans to open a business in this industry, but as an entrepreneur, he is watching the market closely for potential opportunities. He pointed out that in 2006, when he began his career in exactly the same way he observed the YouTube market. For the entrepreneur blockchain technology is a real breakthrough. This is the beginning of a new era in technological development as he added that business opportunities with blockchain technology are endless.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The projected target for the wave v has been hit and now the full impulsive five-wave sequence is done. Nevertheless, there is still no sign of any reversal from the current levels as the market is consolidating the gains in the zone of $8,077 - $8,365. The diminishing momentum still supports the downside bias though.

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Trading plan for 22/11/2017

The market remained calm at night, and limited activity on the day before the US holiday deepened the decline in volatility. USD loses slightly with the strongest movement against JPY. New records on Wall Street were an encouragement to the stock market in Asia. Crude oil rises after data on inventory fall.

On Wednesday 22nd of November, the event calendar is quite busy, but mostly during the US session. During this time the US will release Durable Goods Orders data, Unemployment Claims data, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data, Crude Oil Inventories data and at the end of the trading day - FOMC Meeting Minutes.

EUR/USD analysis for 22/11/2017:

The Thanksgiving, like every day of this kind of holiday, brings with you around the Christmas holidays. This means a rather little movement in asset prices and low involvement of investors (especially those in the US). The calendar of events is rich with US data, but it is doubtful that the readings could shake the US Dollar. The comments regarding the political turmoil in Germany has been halting since the beginning of the week, and the recent update suggests that the chances of a Great Coalition are rising. So the potential reason to pull the EUR/USD out of the consolidation was to die before it could have been more serious. USD is generally weaker at the start of Wednesday trading, although more talk about the direction than the scale of moves (0.1-0.2% volatility). Event today's FOMC Meeting Minutes might not have any impact on the markets as usual.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.1713 after a test of the golden trend line and now tries to rally higher. The market conditions are oversold and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1821. The key zone to the upside remains between the levels of 1.1856 - 1.1880.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil making Double Top?

The price of Crude Oil has rallied towards the local highs at the level of $57.91 after the support at the level of $54.79 held well. Due to the overbought market conditions, the price might reverse anytime now, but it will likely wait for the today's inventories data later on.

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Market Snapshot: DAX H&S pattern still in progress

The price of German DAX index might be developing a right shoulder of the Head & Shoulders technical pattern as the high at the level of 13,211 was established. The next techncial support is seen at the level of 13,094, but th etarget for the H&S pattern is way lower than this.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 22, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair showed a lack of upward momentum as it is trading below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. It has reached the lower Bollinger band, calling for a higher possibility of accelerating to the downside. The first downside target is set at 148.25. A break below this level would open a path toward 147.90.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 149.00 with the target at 149.40.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 149, Take Profit: 148.25

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.40, 149.80 and 150.35

Support levels: 148.25, 147.90, and 147.15

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 22, 2017

The Dollar index made new higher highs yesterday but price got rejected at the cloud resistance. We could see a new lower low towards 92.50-93 before starting the next leg up towards 97.

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Green rectangle - support area

Red rectangle - target if support area fails

The Dollar index bounced off the 38% Fibonacci retracement towards cloud resistance and got rejected. Price remains below the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) something that strengthens the bearish short-term trend. Breaking below the green rectangle support area will be a bearish sign. Price will be next going towards the red rectangular area.

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On a weekly basis, nothing has changed. Price is trapped between the kijun- and the tenkan-sen indicators. I believe the reversal from the 95 level when price got rejected at the kijun-sen, is only part of the upward bounce that started in September. I believe this upward corrective bounce is not over yet and we still have one more upward move towards 97 to finish the entire bounce.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 22, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the golden cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index calls for a bounce.

Therefore, above 0.6810, look for a further advance with targets at 0.6860 and 0.6885 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6860, 0.6885, and 0.6910

Support levels: 0.6785, 0.6760, and 0.6730

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 22, 2017

Gold price continues to trade within the trading range of $1,270-$1,297. Gold remains above short-term cloud support, however the entire rise so far does not look impulsive. The best case for bulls is a move to $1,300-$1,310 before a decline to $1,210-$1,250.

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Blue lines - trading range

Gold price is trading above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) support. Support is at $1,280 and next at $1,275. Resistance is at $1,285 and the next at $1,295. Gold price since late October has an overlapping structure which makes me believe that the metal is still inside a bigger correction phase.

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In the daily chart, Gold got rejected off the Daily Kumo (cloud) and dropped below the tenkan- and kijun-sen. Gold is now trying to break above both indicators. A daily close above $1,285 will open the way for a move back towards the lower cloud boundary at $1,290. I remain longer-term bullish but I believe we could get a better buying opportunity for Gold 30-50$ lower.

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Last minute burning forecast 22.11.2017

Last minute burning forecast 22.11.2017

The EURUSD pair has resumed growth, we buy.

German Chancellor Merkel said she was confident of victory if early elections were announced. Investors were reassured over the risk of a political crisis in Germany.

Germany's economy is in better shape since 2011.

The euro is ready for a new wave of growth. Buy for a breakthrough at 1.1665 upwards, then - buy for a breakthrough at 1.1825 - and a target of 1.1980.

Stop loss to the position of 45 points (Example: buy at 1.1665 stop-loss 1.1620).

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