BITCOIN Analysis for July 9, 2018

Bitcoin has been struggling to gain momentum for the last few days above $6,500 area whereas the bias is still bullish which is expected to push the price higher towards $8,000 in the coming days. Though certain indecision and recent hack problems have deviated the current investors of the market speculators are still quite optimistic with the Bitcoin gains in the coming days. As of the current scenario, the price is residing above the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line which are ready to provide support for the upcoming bullish momentum in the market but due to lower Average True Range as suggested by ATR, the bullish momentum is not observed as expected but as the price remains above $6,500 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

analytics5b4376413b30b.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 9, 2018

EUR/JPY has quite impulsive and non-volatile with the bullish gains recently which lead the price to break above 129.50 area with a daily close. Though JPY has been struggling earlier with the economic reports but this week JPY has been quite positive with the economic results which are expected to help further bearish gain in the pair.

Today at the first phase of the ECB President Draghi's speech on recalibration of the Euro Monetary Policy stance after September this year. The speech was quite optimistic discussing the Employment growth, Unemployment Rate stability in recent months and annual growth is expected to be 2.1% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. Though Euro is currently facing some global challenges like Trade War and BREXIT situations, overall EUR is growing consistently without much deeper pullbacks in the process. The next speech is going to be held shortly which is also expected to be hawkish for the upcoming Euro economic growth.

On the other hand, today JPY Bank Lending report showed an increase to 2.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.2%, Current Account report was published with a slight decrease to 1.85T from the previous figure of 1.89T which was better than expected figure of 1.18T and BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke about the economic development which was quite optimistic for further gain on the JPY side as everything is falling in as planned.

As of the current scenario, both Euro and Yen are currently quite optimistic and positive with the economic results which are expected to inject certain volatility and indecision in the market. Though certain JPY gain may be observed along the way EUR is expected to sustain its gains for the long-term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing certain bearish pressure in the pair now after consistent bullish momentum leading the price above 129.50 area with a daily close. The price has formed Bearish Regular Divergence in the process along with 20 EMA distance which is expected to pull the price lower towards the mean in the coming days. As the price remains above 129.00-50 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 131.50.

NEAR TERM SUPPORT: 129.00-50

NEAR TERM RESISTANCE: 131.50-132.00

BIAS: BULLISH

SHORT-TERM FORMATION: BEARISH CORRECTION

analytics5b4373881e76d.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones of USD/CAD pair 09.07.18

The downward movement is a medium-term momentum, therefore, all trading plans must take this fact into account. Any growth will be corrective until the pair cannot gain a foothold above the control zone 1/2, which is formed from the local minimum.

Today's plan is to keep the sales open from last week. The closest target of the fall is the control zone of a at 1.3042-1.3031, which is formed from the previous weekly short-circuit. The top of the specified zone will allow fixing a part of sales, the rest should be transferred to the breakeven. For those who do not have a short position, the opportunity for opening will appear only if the pair grows to the control zone of 1/4 1.3136-1.3131, where it will be possible to obtain a risk-to-profit ratio in excess of 1 to 3. Sales from current marks are not profitable.

analytics5b42defc02aee.png

If the upward movement exceeds the control zone of 1/4, this will mean the formation of a local accumulation zone. This will not cancel out a bearish priority but will allow even more favorable prices to be sold in the future.

An alternative model can be considered in case that today's closing of the American session occurs above the level of 1.3136. This will allow the instrument to be sold at more favorable prices, located within the control zone a at 1.3199-1.3188. The probability of updating the July low will be 70% as long as the pair trades below 1.3199.

analytics5b42dfd4beded.png


The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for July 9, 2018

On Friday, the price moved up and closed above the recession level of 14.6% - 1.3241 (yellow dotted line). On Monday, there is no strong news expected and the upward movement may continue.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Monday, it is possible to continue the upward trend towards the target of 1.3360 with a retracement level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line). Indeed, you need to overcome first the upper fractal 1.3313.

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - top;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the GBP / USD pair has an upward movement with the first target of 1.3360, which is a recoil level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 09, 2018

analytics5b43419ec725f.png

Overview:

The pivot point : 0.9857.

The price is still trading above the pivot point is seen at the price of 0.9857. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0053.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 09, 2018

analytics5b43403dd83bb.png

Overview:

The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. But, the price rebounded from the bottom of 0.7348 to trade around the spot of 0.7474 again. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7474, 0.7513 and 0.7554. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474/0.7513 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7474 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7474, the market will decline further to 0.7302 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7257 so as to test the daily support 3. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7554, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for July 09, 2018

analytics5b433d3e71de5.png

Trading recommendations:

Recently, Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $6.660. Anyway, acccording to the H1 time - frame, I found a bullish flag pattern in progress, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities if you see a valid breakout of the bullish flag. The upard targets are set at the price of $6.825, $6.925 and at the price of $7.110.

$6.781. Intraday resistance; $6.630– Intraday support; $6.805 – Objective target 1;$6.925 - Objective target 2;$7.107 - Objective target 3 ;

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY analysis for July 09, 2018

analytics5b433918a7f83.png

Recently, USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 110.45. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the support trendline to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of 109.40.

Resistance levels:

R1: 110.48R2: 110.50R3: 110.55

Support levels: S1: 110.40S2: 110.37S3: 110.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for July 09, 2018

analytics5b4331ba9e925.png

Recently, GBP/USD has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3362. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a broken resistance at the price of 1.3312, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3392 and at the price of 1.3445.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.3358R2: 1.3374 R3: 1.3385

Support levels: S1: 1.3331S2: 1.3320S3: 1.3304

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 9, 2018

analytics5b4329d818c7e.png

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where temporary bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed further bearish movement towards 0.6680 where evident signs of bullish rejection were manifested.

Currently, the price zone 0.6770-0.6800 stands as a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 9, 2018

analytics5b4329cfb042c.png

Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

In June 2018, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bearish rejection which led to bearish decline towards 1.1500.

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent bullish demand where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1800 until breakout occurs in either direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 09/07/2018

The most important information of the Friday session was undoubtedly the publication of a report from the American job market by BLS. After the result of 223,000 new posts in the non-farm sector (NFP) from May, in the June report economists expected a slightly worse result at the level of 200,000.

According to the latest report from the American Labor Office (BLS), the change in employment in the non-agricultural sector (NFP) in June 2018 amounted to +213,000 jobs, which is better than forecast. In addition, the May report from 223,000 was also revised positively up to 244,000.

It turns out, however, that despite forecasts assuming maintenance of monthly wage growth rate at 0.3% and its appreciation in annual terms to 2.8%, finally wage growth in monthly terms has slipped to + 0.2% and in annual terms, it remained at its current level of 2.7%.

What is worse, despite the forecasts assuming maintaining the unemployment rate at the lowest level in 18 years, the level of 3.8%, in the end, it was up by 0.2 pp up to 4.0%. It is worth recalling that, despite the fact that the market consensus assumed maintaining the unemployment rate, some economists suggested that it would drop to 3.7%.

In conclusion, despite the better than expected NFP headline figure, the market participants have focused on poor wages again, which might be the main reason behind the spike down on USD pairs across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe at the first trading session after the NFP Payrolls data were published. The market continues to grow higher above the 61% Fibo and currently, the local high was made at the level of 1.1790. The strong and positive momentum supports the bullish case and it looks like the bulls will test the siwng high at the level of 1.1850 soon. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1740.

analytics5b432af890fb2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 09/07/2018

Trade wars have taken off seriously, while the financial markets continue their positive rebound. The last word has not yet been spoken, so the durability of improving moods is not certain.

On Friday, the US began to respect import duties on goods from China. In response, China applied similar measures for US goods. The trade conflict between the two countries has passed from the announcement phase to actual actions and it is very likely that the last word has not yet been spoken. After all, President Trump himself threatened that if China responded to its customs (which Beijing did), then it would tighten the tariffs even on all imports from China. Hence, the escalation of market concerns is not entirely ruled out, although so far investors remain relaxed. Perhaps it is a symptom of tiredness and without the tangible evidence of the risk of major disturbances in global trade, markets are not going to react? However, this would be something new after a rather low violate trading conditions of June. Or maybe the record heat wave that hit Britain last week dulled traders in the City of London? Whatever it is, I do not think the threat is gone.

So far, however, the recovery of risky assets continues, which is primarily used in currencies from Antipodes and Scandinavia, and the loser is USD (which until recently was a safe haven). Friday's US labor market report with wage dynamics was lower than forecast, so it did not contribute to defending the dollar.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a Double Top technical pattern at the level of 95.53 and now the trend has changed to the downtrend. The question remains, whether this change is temporary or permanent in nature. Nevertheless, the price has broken below both 61% Fibo at 94.08 and the short-term trendline support around the level of 94.00. The weak and negative momentum indicate a possible slide towards the next important technical support at the level of 93.21.

analytics5b4320b79e70c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Growth before the fall?

EUR / USD

With the release of US employment data on Friday, the price attacked the resistance of the trend line on a daily scale And this morning, a white candle is formed above it. But still, we cannot consider the data as disappointing despite a number of mass media did just because the dollar fell. There were 213 thousand new jobs created outside the agricultural sector in June against the forecast of 195 thousand. The May figure was revised upwards from 223 thousand to 244 thousand. The share of economically active population increased from 62.7% to 62.9% For this, the total unemployment rate formally increased from 3.8% to 4.0%. Also, the "pessimists" appealed to the 0.2% wage increase for the month against the expected 0.3%, but if the forecast was 0.2%, the media would have to tighten very much to come up with an explanation for the speculative price spike, the aim of hunting for middle-class investors. Also note that the US trade balance for May was better than the forecast: -43.1 billion dollars against -43.6 billion and -46.1 billion in April.

analytics5b42e625b53f0.png

The target for further price growth is the maximum of June 14 at 1.1852.

analytics5b42e636ae4e7.png

OOn the 4-hour chart, we will slightly clarify the growth target at the range of 1.1840 / 52, and the lower limit is taken from the maximum on June 7. The 1.1852 level also coincides with the Fibonacci retracement level of 161.8%.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound attacks technical resistance

GBP / USD

Brexit Minister David Davis resigned. The market considered this news as positive for the national currency since Davis is a supporter of the "hard" Brexit. Growth was facilitated by the dollar weakening on Friday after the release of US employment data. But the Friday reaction of the market was paradoxical, as the indicators came out good in general. For this reason, we take caution with the upward movements of the pound. However, any movements of the British currency this week should be taken of with caution, as Theresa May presents the latest proposals for Brexit. On Tuesday, the trade balance and industrial production will be published on Wednesday and on Thursday Mark Carney will have his stand.

analytics5b42e55900097.png

Technically, the price could overcome the resistance of the balance line (red) and can now work out the resistance of the trend line with the target of 1.3360. In case of overcoming this resistance, the growth to the 1.3485 level is possible - at this level the lines of the blue line and the balance of the weekly scale coincide.

analytics5b42e569594ae.png

In the 4-hour chart, the price has no barriers for growth.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 09/07/2018

The German Federal Ministry of Finance believes that the concept of the Central Bank's digital currency (CBDC) is too risky to be able to implement it. The Ministry of Finance expressed its position in response to a query by Gerard Schick published in one of the financial newspapers.

The German Ministry stated: "so far, there are no convincing reasons to spend digital money from the central bank for a wide range of users in Germany and the Eurozone".

The potential benefits of the Central Bank's digital currency - including quick bank transfers - could also be implemented in a different way - the Ministry says - saying that CBDC contains many risks that are not well understood.

The ministry wrote that the central bank would also gain a stronger position in the financial system if it were to issue a cryptocurrency, which could jeopardize its independence. According to Handelsblatt, the Ministry of Finance was also afraid that in a crisis situation, bankruptcy with central bank money could take place faster and on a larger scale due to lower transaction costs. Officials also say that the digital currency would make it difficult to fight money laundering and terrorism financing.

Governments around the world have expressed different opinions about the digital currency issued by the state. In May, the Bank of England stated in a working document that the introduction of CBDC will not have a negative impact on private loans or ensure the liquidity of the entire economy.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked between the levels of $6,334 and $6,809 and is trading in a tight horizontal consolidation. In a case of the bullish breakout higher above the level of $6,809, the next target for bulls is located at the level of $6,993, which is an important technical resistance level. If, however, the bears will take the control over the market, then the next target for them is located at the level of $5,900. Due to a strong and positive momentum, the preferred scenario is still bullish.

analytics5b431cf735dcd.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 09/07/2018

The investment climate on Monday is good, and the Asian stock market continues to pick up on Europe and the US after the US labor market data on Friday pointed to a positive trend. Japanese Nikkei225 grows by 1.2% and Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 1.7%.

In the currency market, USD is in defensive to other major currencies after the first salvo in the US-China trade war has not fueled investors' fears. Risk appetite is supported by AUD, NZD, SEK and NOK. EUR / USD remains high at 1.1765; USD / JPY, despite several attempts, cannot break above 110.50.

The USD weakness helps in the growth of raw materials. Gold gains 0.4% up to 1260 USD, WTI crude oil grows 0.5% up to 74.1 USD, and copper is increased by 1.6% up to 287 USD.

On Monday, the 9th of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but there are some speeches scheduled. First will speak BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent, then ECB President Mario Draghi. Worth to keep an eye on them as the volatility might increase during the time of speech.

GBP/USD analysis for 09/07/2018:

The pound tolerates the turbulence on the British political scene quite well. On Friday after long talks, Prime Minister May agreed in the government a consensus on Brexit's proposal to present the EU. The solution was not well received by everyone, because on Sunday three of the five ministers responsible for conducting Brexit negotiations resigned. In the letter of resignation, the chief talks coordinator David Davis wrote that the current political trend and adopted tactics are making it less and less likely that the United Kingdom will leave the customs union and the single European market.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. GBP/USD temporarily retreated to 1.3280, but it is back over 1.33. Currently, the local high was set at the level of 1.3350, just where the technical resistance lies. The momentum is strong and positive and with the help of any good news or data, the bulls have a chance to rally towards the level of 1.3439. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.3314 - 1.3306 zone. Short term bias remains bullish.

analytics5b43191ef2769.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for July 9, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish gains. As a result, the price is holding above 1.1750 area with a daily close today. As the US posted nonfarm payrolls with a decrease in non-farm employment and also higher unemployment rate, this shattered the recent bearish expectation of the market.

On Friday, US Average Hourly Earnings report was published with a decrease to 0.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, non-farm employment change was published with better-than-expected growth to 213k which was expected to be at 195k but the indicator decreased from the previous figure of 244k, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, confouding the forecast for the flat reading of 3.8%. This week, the economic calendar does not contain macroeconomic reports or events in the US. Thus, no fundamentals could inject gains on the USD side, so the greenback is expected to remain weak further.

On the EUR side, today ECB President Draghi is going to speak about the the key interest rate and further agenda for monetary policy. His speech is expected to be neutral, making no immediate impact. Amid USD weakness, EUR is likely to gain ground. Moreover, today the eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to show a slight decrease to 9.0 from the previous figure of 9.3.

As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to advance further against USD this week. On the other hand, USD is going to struggle further until the US comes up with any upbeat macroeconomic report to counter the impulsive EUR sentiment in the market.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently correcting itself above 1.1700-50 area which is currently expected to retest with certain bearish pressure before showing impulsive bullish momentum in the process with a target towards 1.1900 area. A daily close above 1.1700-50 area is needed to continue the bullish bias being formed currently.

NEAR TERM SUPPORT: 1.1700-50

NEAR TERM RESISTANCE: 1.1900

BIAS: BULLISH

CURRENT FORMATION: CORRECTIVE

analytics5b43178956333.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of INDU for July 09, 2018

analytics5b42f277f28f3.jpg

The INDU now looks like loosing its volatility. We can judge this from the overall price making a Descending Triangle on the Daily Chart. This pattern is a trend continuation pattern from the $INDU Bullish bias. However, it seems that a few days later the index will test first the resistance level of 24,673.18 before heading downward to reach the support level of 23,578.16.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EUR/USD for July 9, 2018

The EUR/USD pair continues moving higher as expected, after breaking above 1.1720. Short-term trend is bullish. Next important resistance and target area is at 1.1850-1.1830 as long as the price is above 1.1660.

analytics5b4306b5cdce0.png

Red line - resistance

Blue line - support

Magenta line - RSI support

The double bottom at 1.15 where support held is paying now. RSI is trending upwards supporting the bullish short-term trend. Rge price has broken above the resistance trend line and entered the Daily Ichimoku cloud. This has turned the daily trend to neutral from bearish. The short-term trend has turned bullish, because on the 4 hour time frame, the price is above the cloud. The short-term support is at 1.17 and the resistance is at 1.18-1.1830. Break above this area and we will move towards 1.19 which is the lower boundary of our longer-term bounce target area.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for July 09, 2018

analytics5b42f1e88044d.jpg

On the 4-hour chart, after Gold had touch the support level of $1,240.74, the price bounced higher. Now, the price is making a Flag Pattern. It seems the gold price will test again the resistance level of $1,265.36. The overall trend for Gold is the bullish bias.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on Gold for July 9, 2018

Gold prices are climbing above the resistance during the Asian session. Gold prices have the potential to reach $1,272 this week. However, we also have a second target around $1,285.

analytics5b43053700367.png

Blue line - short-term resistance (broken)

Green line- short-term support

Red lines -targets

Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows in the short-term. These are initial signs of a reversal that could be a major low for Gold in the longer term. Support is at $1,251 and resistance is at $1,258-60. The price is above the resistance. We could see a back test today, but any move below $1,256 should worry bulls. A sustained daily close above $1,261 today will be a bullish sign.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar lost its "favorite" status

The FOMC minutes of meeting on June 13 was published on Friday and did not have a significant effect on market rate expectations. Markets are certain that the next increase will take place in September, there is no sustainable opinion regarding the fourth year in this year. According to the CME, the probability of an increase in the futures market data is slightly higher than 50% on Monday morning.

analytics5b42f9c33d5b9.png

In general, the minutes was hawkish but it contained exactly the formulations that were expected. Committee Members left themselves a loophole for raising the percentage of the rate hike in 2019/2020, linking this plan with possible strong growth of the economy and a stable fix of the rate above 2%. Opinions were also expressed that the rate on excess reserves of banks is growing more slowly than the discount rate, and this difference will encourage banks to seek the application of their reserves in other financial instruments.

There were also concerns about trade risks, but it seemed to be on duty, as it was not possible to circumvent this topic. As a result, markets did not see for themselves any new landmarks, and the dollar even lost a bit in value.

The main attention on Friday were pointed to two events - the report on the labor market and the beginning of the trade war between the US and China.

The labor market report appeared outwardly confident while the growth in the number of new jobs exceeded the forecast, there was an upward revision for April and May. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 4.0%, but the markets were indifferent to this, as the level of labor participation showed a simultaneous increase, while the absence of dynamics in the rate of average wage growth (2.7% year-on-year versus the forecast of 2.8%) crossed all positive.

Market expectations for the Fed rate are inevitably hawkish and associated with the increasing the growth of Treasury yields. Therefore, insufficient wage growth serves as a strong cooling factor and raises doubts about the effectiveness of the chosen policy.

After the publication of the report, the dollar began to weaken and closed the week with a slide against most G10 currencies.

At the beginning of a full-fledged trade war between the US and China, the markets reacted calmly. The US imposed duties on Chinese goods worth 34 billion dollars, and China immediately responded with retaliation. For multi-trillion economies, these amounts are small, but the increasing conflict will significantly affect higher volumes. Global growth slows down, and business activity peaked by mid-2017 since then has been declining, the demand for metals is even more rapidly, which is an accurate indicator of the economic crisis.

analytics5b42f9d8c5b1d.png

The escalation of the trade war is inevitable. China is actively working to integrate regional economies into trade unions that intend to jointly oppose the US economic dictates. There are 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including China, Japan, India, that creates a new trade union, in which the United States did not find a place. Until the end of the year, all the necessary documents are expected to be signed and these countries will begin to pursue an agreed tariff policy, which means that the answer to the unilateral US action will be much larger.

According to the formula "16 + 1", the summit held on Sunday in Sofia was participated by the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as China. On the agenda tackled exactly the same issues, which is the development of a unified position on trade. Countries rely on free trade under conditions of trade war with the United States, and intend to work out a unified strategy within the framework of WTO rules.

These events point to the obvious beginning of a full-scale trade war, and the United States risks will lose much more than it will acquire.

The Dollar has changed conditions and no longer looks like the "favorite" currency. The Fed Policy aimed at tightening financial conditions leads to the shrinkage of the monetary base and the dollar appreciation, but the threat of ousting it out of the world commodity turnover looks increasingly ominous.

On Monday, the dollar will continue to weaken against most currencies. According to the EUR/USD pair, testing the 1.18 level is probable and an attempt to gain a foothold higher. While the GBP/USD is aiming for 1.3450, today we can test the intermediate resistance 1.3370 for strength.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 09, 2018

analytics5b42f17d9e7fd.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Sentix Investor Confidence, and German Trade Balance. The US will also release the Economic Data such as Consumer Credit m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1808.

Strong Resistance:1.1801.

Original Resistance: 1.1790.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1779.

Target Inner Area: 1.1751.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1723.

Original Support: 1.1712.

Strong Support: 1.1701.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1694.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 09, 2018

analytics5b42f0e39edc7.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Current Account, and Bank Lending y/y and the US will release some Economic Data such as Consumer Credit m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.00.

Resistance. 2: 110.78.

Resistance. 1: 110.57.

Support. 1: 110.30.

Support. 2: 110.09.

Support. 3: 109.87.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com