EUR/NZD analysis for February 25, 2015

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Overview :

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.6476 in a high volume. In the daily time frame, we can observe an up-thrust bar (bearish bar), which is a sign of weakness. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities. Next downward target is seen at the level of 1.6180 ( sub-major Fibonacci expansion 161.8%) and at the level of 1.5990 (major Fibonacci expansion 161.8%).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6645

R2: 1.6690

R3: 1.6760

Support levels:

S1: 1.6500

S2: 1.6455

S3: 1.6380

Trading recommendation: watch for potential selling opportunities on rallies.

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Gold analysis for February 25, 2016

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,253.08 in a high volume. In the daily time frame, I found a demand bar with a weak close, but in a high volume, which means that demand is still observed. At this stage, selling looks risky. Our key MA`s are heading upwards (upward trend). The key resistance level is seen at $1,262.70. If the price breaks the level of $1,262.70 in a high volume, we may see potential testing of $1,307.00. In the M30 time frame, I found a fake breakout of an upward trend line, which is a sign of strength.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,242.75

R2: 1,260.55

R3: 1,271.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,214.50

S2: 1,204.10

S3: 1,186.35

Trading recommendations: be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 25, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has sharply bounced back after hitting a low of 122.40 yesterday. The pair is trading at 123.80 now, and it looks like the pair has reached a meaningful low. The pair might have completed a wave 5 drop from the level of 141.00 through 122.40 levels, as depicted with arrows here. The most probable move from here should be a rally unfolding at least towards 126.20 levels. The pair is beginning to inch higher at this moment and is now trading at 123.94. Hence it is recommended to remain long now, with risk at 122.00. Immediate support is seen at the level of 122.40, while resistance is seen at 124.60.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now with stop at 122.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 25, 2016

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In November 2015, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick closed below the level of 1.5200 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This enhanced the bearish side of the market in the long term.

Extensive bearish pressure has been applied against the demand levels of 1.4620 and 1.4360. Both of them were broken to the downside.

On January 21, after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4220, evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, previous weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4220 and 1.4360 again.

Bullish persistence above 1.4360 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615 where the current strong bearish momentum was initiated.

As the current weekly candlestick maintained its bearish persistence below the depicted demand zone (below 1.4200), the next weekly demand level is located at 1.3850 (a historical bottom that goes back to March 2009).

Strong bullish recovery and a possible long entry should be expected around 1.3850 (Prominent Weekly Demand Level).

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On February 4, the market failed to close above 1.4615. An inverted hammer daily candlestick was expressed. Hence, a bearish pullback took place towards 1.4360.

Note that the GBP/USD pair was trapped between 1.4615 and 1.4220 until a recent lower high was established at the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against 1.4220.

Hence, an extensive bearish breakout below 1.4220 is being manifested on the daily chart (The GBP/USD pair currently looks oversold).

That's why signs of bullish recovery and a possible long entry should be expected around the current levels below 1.3850.

On the other hand, the broken demand zone (1.4360-1.4222) now constitutes a significant supply zone to offer bearish rejection when bullish pullback occurs.

Trading Recommendation:

Conservative traders should wait for a valid entry around the zone of 1.3850-1.3900.

Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.3980 and 1.4050.

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 25, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading at $15.22/25 now after reversing from $15.55/57 yesterday. Please note that the metal completed its correction yesterday by hitting the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels of the drop from $15.90 to $14.90 earlier. The structure reveals that silver should be pushing lower towards $14.50/60 until prices remain below $15.55 going forward. Hence, it is recommended to remain short with risk above $15.60. Immediate resistance is seen at $15.55 (intermediary), while support is at $14.90. Look lower from here now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short with stop at $15.60, a target is at $14.60.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 25, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair rose from the level of 0.9850 towards 0.9903 yesterday. Now, the current price is set at 0.9910. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9960 and 1.0002. Besides, the weekly support 1 is seen at the level of 0.9831. Today, the USD/CHF pair is continuing to move in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9878, to form a bullish channel. Amid the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 0.9878 and 0.9960. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9878 with the first target at 0.9960 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.0002 (double top). Nevertheless, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0002, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.0002. The market will decline further to 0.9878 in order to return to the weekly pivot point. Additionally, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9831.

Comment:

  • The weekly pivot is seen at the level of 0.9878.
  • The market is still in an uptrend. We still prefer the bullish scenario.

Intraday Technical Levels:

  • R2: 1.0002
  • R1: 0.9960
  • PP: 0.9895
  • S1: 0.9831
  • S2: 0.9791
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 25, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which was previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

April's monthly candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.

December's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370.

The zone of 1.1350-1.1400 remains a significant Supply Zone to be watched during the current bullish pullback. As we expected, recent bearish rejection is currently being manifested.

The level of 0.9450 will remain a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted demand level of 1.0570.

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In October 2015, the Daily Supply Zone of 1.1360-1.1400 produced significant bearish pressure shortly after the EUR/USD pair spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed later on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range extending between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

That is why, a quick bullish movement took place towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1450 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend are depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed around the mentioned supply level. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was expected. This bearish decline is currently manifested on the daily chart.

Trading Recommendation:

The levels of 1.1000 and 1.0800 will remain important demand levels to be watched for significant bullish rejection. Otherwise, a quick bearish decline towards 1.0550 will be imminent.

A valid buy entry can be offered near the current levels (the upper limit of the broken consolidation range) around 1.1000. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure below 1.0950. Initial T/P levels are located at 1.1130 and 1.1250.

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Technical analysis of Gold for February 25, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading at $1,235.00/26.00 now after pulling back from $1,242.00 today. The metal has completed the second wave of its potential flat correction at $1,254.00. The metal should be looking for an opportunity to push lower just around $1,190.00 and further to complete wave 3 correction. Hence, it is recommended to remain short with risk above $1,255.00. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,255.00, while support is at $1,220.00. Please note that bears are expected to remain in control until prices stay below $1,255.00, going forward.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short now with stop at $1,256.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 25/02/2016

Global macro overview for 25/02/2016:

The Fed policy makers remain divided on future interest rate hikes.There are some optimistic tones in the recent remarks, so let's see what some of them has to say. The biggest optimist seems to be the newly appointed head of Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari. He said, that he is optimistic about the US economy, which continues to grow moderately as the year progresses, adding that he sees both upside and downside risks to the growth outlook. Jeffrey Lacker, Richmond Fed President, said that the US central bank still has room to raise rates in coming months, as there are no signs of imminent recession. Moreover, he added that even though inflation remains below Fed's target of 2%, inflation indicators suggest a possible move back toward the goal over the period between 5 and 10 years. Meanwhile, Robert Kaplan, Dallas Fed President, said that he does not expect the US economy to slip into recession this year, yet he advises a patient and cautious approach to policy normalization given the global headwinds. The conclusion we might draw from the recent remarks of Fed's policy members seems to be favoring further rate hikes.

Let's now take a look at the US dollar index technical picture as the Fed policy will directly relate to this asset. On a daily chart, we might observe that bulls are trying to remain in control after the bounce from the golden trend line. Bulls managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 97.18, but were capped ahead of 100 DMA. Currently, the market is trading just in the middle of a range, so both sides of the market, bulls and bears, have equal chances to push the price towards the desired levels.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 25, 2016

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Since January 26, bullish persistence above 0.6500 was mandatory to keep pushing the NZD/USD pair towards higher bullish targets.

However, a temporary bearish rejection has been expressed around 0.6550 for almost two weeks resulting in the depicted consolidation range.

On January 28, the depicted support level of 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed earlier last week.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The area of 0.6700-0.6750 constituted a significant resistance zone. Recent signs of a bearish rejection were seen near the same zone during the previous few weeks.

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6570.

Moreover, obvious bullish recovery was expressed at 0.6570 (temporary support level) on Wednesday. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6700 was initiated.

The zone of 0.6700-0.6750 remains a significant resistance to offer a valid sell entry. S/L should be located above 0.6770.

Note that persistence below 0.6570 will be essential to allow further bearish decline towards the zone around 0.6500 where price reaction should be watched for a possible buy entry.

If the market fails to move below 0.6570, the ongoing sideways movement will continue for longer time.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 25, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The recent bullish recovery was manifested around the level of 1.3750. That is why the recent bullish pullback took place towards 1.4000 during the last week.

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) remains a significant key-level to be watched for further price reactions.

It may offer a valid sell entry if a bullish pullback takes place above 1.3950, which is a low possibility after the depicted lower high was expressed at 1.3970.

On the other hand, the zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains a significant support zone to be watched for a valid buy entry when the current bearish momentum extends below the prominent weekly support level of 1.3600.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the zone of 1.3370-1.3400 for a valid buy entry. S/L should be located below 1.3320.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 25, 2016

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Overview:

  • NZD/USD has broken resistance at 0.6613 which acts as a support this morning. The pair is moving between the levels of 0.6613 and 0.6692. As the trend is still above the 100 EMA, a bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Consequently, the level of 0.6613 remains a key resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move upwards above 0.6613, which coincides with a ratio 50% of Fibonacci retracement. The falling structure does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity above 0.6613, buy above this level with the first target at 0.6692. Moreover, if the pair succeeds to pass through 0.6692, it will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to 0.6723 in order to test the daily resistance 1. However, if a breakout happens at 0.6575, this scenario may be invalidated.
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Global macro overview for 25/02/2016

Global macro overview for 25/02/2016:

The US New Home Sales data were released yesterday and the numbers were lower than market expectations. The house market slid to 494k ( -9,2% m/m) as the foretasted number was 522k (-3,2%m/m). Moreover, the CB consumer confidence index has underscored as well when it decreased to 92.2 from 97.8 a month before, well above the estimate of 97.4. To conclude, we might notice, that weaker consumer sentiment might indicate a decrease in consumer spending, which is the key driver of economic growth. Moreover, the US economy is showing signs of weakness in 2016 as per new home sales data, so the nervous market participants might invest more in traditional safe-heaven assets, like gold.

Gold prices have jumped some 16% in 2016, so let's take a look at its technical picture. Sharp recovery from the important support at the level of 1191 indicates that bulls are still in full control in this market. Currently, the next important resistance is seen at the level of 1263 and if broken, then bulls might even try to test the level of 1307.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 25, 2016

General overview for 25/02/2016:

As anticipated yesterday, the market did make one marginal high in order to complete wave (c) purple and then reversed lower. Moreover, it is worth to mention, that the X brown wave may be still developing as well, and the pattern that it forms may evolve to (a)(b)(c)(d)(e) triangle. In case of a breakout below the level of 1.3637, an alternative count will be in play. In a longer time frame, the corrective cycle from a top of 1.4687 is still in progress, but it has evolved a complex corrective structure. Within that structure, there is a missing Y brown wave pointing to the downside.

Support/Resistance:

1.3637 - Intraday Support

1.3656 - WS1

1.3739 - Intraday Resistance

1.3784 - Weekly Pivot

1.3916 - WR1

1.4041 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

It is recommended to buy on dips as an uptrend is still in play. The corrective cycle is violating the support levels, but the most important support at 1.3637 has not been broken yet. Bulls are still in control in the market, but a bullish reversal has not been confirmed yet.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 25, 2016

General overview for 25/02/2016:

The market rallied sharply yesterday, but the intraday resistance hasn't been violated yet. To confirm that the bottom for wave B blue is in place, the price must break out above the level of 125.01 in an impulsive fashion. Nevertheless, the market is still trading in a bearish zone and the whole structure evolves more complex and time-consuming correction even in the longer time frames. The current ABC blue labeling may not be the last one as further corrective sub-waves are still expected.

Support/Resistance:

122.48 - Intraday Support

122.70 - WS2

123.59 - WS1

125.02 - Intraday Resistance

125.90 - Weekly Pivot

126.75 - WR1

128.27 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur in the near term. We will open the buy orders when the bottom of the wave B blue is in place.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 25, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias as the key resistance is at 112.60.Overnight, the US stocks pared great losses seen earlier and ended up higher as oil prices rebounded later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3% to 16484, the S&P 500 gained 0.4% to 1929, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.9% at 4542.

Nymex crude oil rebounded 0.9% to $32.15 a barrel, gold edged up 0.2% to $1,229 an ounce (day-high at $1253), while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remained unchanged at 1.740%.

On the forex front, GBP/USD lost another 0.7% to 1.3924 (day-low at 1.3876), having shed 3.3% or 480 points in 3 sessions. EUR/USD edged down less than 0.1% to 1.1011 (day-low at 1.0955). Meanwhile, boosted by rebounding oil prices, the Canadian dollar rallied against the greenback, with USD/CAD dropping 0.7% to 1.3699 and erasing most of the gains made at the previous session. While continuing on its rebound initiated overnight at the low of 111.03, the pair is striking against the key resistance at 112.60. It has jumped above the 50-period (30-minute chart) moving average. And the Bollinger bands are widening, indicating higher volatility ahead. If the pair remains capped by 112.60, it should return to 111.30 on the downside.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 111.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 111.00. The pivot point stands at 112.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 113.05 and the second target at 113.35.

Resistance levels: 113.05, 113.35, 113.65

Support levels: 111.30, 111.00, 110.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 25, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is seen at 0.9925. Technically, the pair remains weak below its nearest resistance at 0.9925, which is expected to limit any upward attempts. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be very limited. As long as the resistance at 0.9920 is not surpassed, the risk of a breakout below 0.9850 remains high.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9850. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9820. The pivot point stands at 0.9925. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9945 and the second target at 0.9970.

Resistance levels: 0.9945, 0.9970, 1.00

Support levels: 0.9850, 0.9820, 0.9775

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 25, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to rise further. The pair reversed up yesterday and can continue its rebound, as the relative strength index is heading upward, which should call for further advance. Additionally, a bullish cross between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified (a positive signal). In this case, as long as our trailing stop loss at 0.6620 is not broken, look for 0.6685 and 0.6725 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6685 and the second one at 0.6725. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6580 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6560. The pivot point is at 0.6620.

Resistance levels: 0.6685, 0.6725, 0.6755

Support levels: 0.6580, 0.6560, 0.6525

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 25, 2016

EUR/USD: this pair is still in a bearish mode, though things are going into an equilibrium territory. Should the price start moving sideways, it would be in the context of a downtrend. The fundamental figures expected today would have some impact on the market.

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USD/CHF: the situation is dicey surrounding the USD/CHF pair. There are mixed signal in the market and it would be better to stay away until we see a directional movement. Generally, the market should not go below the support level of 0.9750; otherwise the bias would turn bearish in the market.

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GBP/USD: the GBP/USD pair has moved down by almost 400 pips this week, moving briefly below the accumulation territory of 1.3900 before the shallow correction witnessed. The accumulation territory of 1.3900 is important now because the price needs to go below it. So the southward movement can continue. Should the price move above that territory, the price would enter a consolidation phase.

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USD/JPY: this currency trading instrument has simply consolidated to the downside, and there is still a bearish indication on the USD/JPY chart. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 in the 4-hour chart, while the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. This means that the price could go further downwards. Any rallies that occur in the market should be approached with caution.

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EUR/JPY: having dropped by 300 pips, testing the demand zone around 122.50, this cross jumped upwards in the context of a downtrend. Now, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart (the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50). Rallies could proffer short-selling opportunities on this cross.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for February 25, 2016

The US dollar index is stuck at the 50% retracement of a decline from 99.85. The price remains inside an upward sloping channel confirming that the short-term trend remains bullish. There are indications that a bearish reversal could be seen soon.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The price is above the Ichimoku cloud. It has broken below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) in the 4-hour chart as shown above. The price is trapped around the 50% retracement. Support is found at 97.20. If it gets broken, we should test the Kumo (cloud) at 96.70. Next resistance is the 61.8% Fibo level.

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In the weekly chart, we see the price trying to break above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). For now, we see a rejection in this area. The weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) is at 97.10, so a weekly close below that level will open the way to a decline towards cloud support at 96. A weekly close above the tenkan-sen will open the way to the area of 98.50-99.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 25, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is seen at 157.60. The pair is rebounding but stays below its key resistance at 157.60. Meanwhile, the 20-period moving average stays below the 50-period one. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 154.70. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 153.15.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 154.70. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 153.15. The pivot point stands at 157.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 159.05 and the second target at 160.35.

Resistance levels: 159.05, 160.35, 161.20

Support levels: 154.70, 153.15, 152.10

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Gold technical analysis for February 25, 2016

Gold made a strong upward move towards $1,255 yesterday, but it also performed a strong pullback to erase most of its gains. However, the pullback did not technically hurt the bullish scenario. A trend remains bullish after the breakout, and we still expect new highs towards $1,300.

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Green lines - short-term support

Yellow line - stop for bulls

The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and the short-term support is seen at $1,220. The price is bouncing higher to what can be the next wave up towards $1,270. As long as gold price is above yesterday's low, bulls have nothing to fear. If however support fails, then we should expect heavy selling to push the price towards $1,170 at least.

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The weekly chart remains bullish as support at $1,200 is held and buyers keep pushing prices higher when we reach around $1,200-$1,220. Gold price should hit at least one more new high. The level of $1,300 is expected to be reached, but bulls need to be very cautious as oscillators on a weekly chart are entering overbought levels. We have no bearish divergence yet but any breakout below $1,220-$1,200 should find us with long positions.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 25, 2016

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Wave summary:

We have not yet seen a breakout above resistance at 1.6680 which is needed to confirm that a bottom is in place for wave [ii] and the extended rally higher to 1.8731 is unfolding. However, yesterdays correction completed at 1.6456 and a new run is expected together with a firm breakout above the resistance of 1.6680. This will be the first strong indication that wave [iii] higher is developing. To confirm that wave [iii] is unfolding, a breakout above 1.6893 is needed.

As long as resistance at 1.6680 is able to protect the upside, the risk of an even more complex wave [ii] presents, but this view is not our preferred one.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6550. We will place our stop at 1.6335. We will move our stop higher soon.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 25, 2016

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Wave summary:

We have been looking for a wave a bottom near 124.00, but it finally seems to be in place with a low of 122.42. We do think this overshooting is a sign of the crowed getting ahead of itself.

With a bottom in place, we now expect wave b to rally back to at least 127.41 before the risk turns towards the downside again. A target at 127.41 could be overshot. In the short term, we are looking for support near 123.62 and at 123.02 again, which should protect the downside for a rally higher with the next resistance seen near 125.90.

Trading recommendation:

We have bought EUR at 123.80. We will place our stop at 122.35 now. We hope we will be able to move it higher soon. Take profit will be placed at 127.25.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for February 25, 2016

On a short-term basis, the USDX made a pullback from the level of 97.77, after a strong rejection. On the H1 chart, the picture is very clear about a possible bullish continuation on a short and mid-term basis. If USDX does a breakout above the level of 97.77, then a high around 98.08 can be tested.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.77 / 98.08

H1 chart's support levels: 97.36 / 96.80

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 97.77, take profit is at 98.08, and stop loss is at 97.47.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 25, 2016

The pair performed a decline below the zone of 1.3963, and now we can expect a bearish consolidation above the level of 1.3878, which is a very important support zone on a short-term basis. If the cable achieves in breaking that level to the downside, then we can expect another fall towards the level of 1.3782, which is still our preferred short-term target.

GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3963 / 1.4069

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3878 / 1.3782

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is seen at 1.3878, take profit is at 1.3782, and stop loss is at 1.3976.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 25, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the Italian Retail Sales m/m, Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, and GfK German Consumer Climate is due to be released. The US will publish economic data on the Natural Gas Storage, HPI m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1062.

Strong Resistance:1.1056.

Original Resistance: 1.1045.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1034.

Target Inner Area: 1.1008.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0982.

Original Support: 1.0971.

Strong Support: 1.0960.

Breakout sell level: 1.0954.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 25, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, but the US will deliver some economic data on the Natural Gas Storage, HPI m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.67.

Resistance. 2: 112.45.

Resistance. 1: 112.23.

Support. 1: 111.96.

Support. 2: 111.74.

Support. 3: 111.52.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of Silver for 24 February, 2016

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Overview

The silver price continues fluctuating in a narrow sideways range near 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 15.30, waiting to confirm the next trend by surpassing one of the next trend keys represented by 15.00 support and 15.70 resistance. So we remain neutral and monitor the price behavior according to these levels. Breaching 15.70 levels will push the price to target 16.35 levels directly; while breaking 15.00 levels represents the first key for the price return to the main bearish trend. Negative targets begin at 14.67 and then 14.27.

The expected trading range for today is between 14.70 support and 15.70 resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 24, 2016

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USD/JPY is under pressure. Overnight U.S. stocks pared most of the gains made in the previous session as energy and materials were pressured by an over-4% drop in oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.1% to 16,431, the S&P 500 lost 1.3% to 1,921, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.5% to 4,503.

Nymex crude oil fell 4.6% to $31.87 a barrel, gold rebounded 1.6% to $1,227 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased to 1.740% from 1.766% in the previous session.

In the foreign exchange market, GBP/USD continued with its slide losing another 0.9% overnight to 1.4022, the lowest level since March 2009. This morning, the pair pushed even below 1.4000 levels. EUR/USD edged down 0.1% to 1.1017. At the same time, USD/JPY fell 0.7% to 112.10, USD/CHF lost 0.9% to 0.9907, and USD/CAD was up 0.6% to 1.3792. The pair emerged on the downside after completing a "broadening formation" pattern yesterday, signaling a prolonged bearish bias. Currently, it is trading below the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. And the relative strength index remains below the neutrality level of 50 lacking upward momentum. A break below the first downside target at 111.00 would trigger a further decline towards 110.65.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 111.00. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.50. The pivot point stands at 112.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 112.70 and the second target at 113.35.

Resistance levels: 113.20, 113.65, 114.15

Support levels: 111.00, 110.50, 110.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 24, 2016

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USD/CHF is under pressure. The pair posted a new low yesterday, and is now very close to its support at 0.9820. A test is highly expected in the coming trading hours. Nevertheless, the falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages maintain strong selling pressure on prices. The relative strength index is mixed to bearish suggesting that the bearish trend may continue. In these perspectives, as long as 0.9935 is not surpassed, look for a test of 0.9825. If there is a breakout, a further decline is expected to 0.9790.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9820. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9790. The pivot point stands at 0.9935. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9970 and the second target at 1.000.

Resistance levels: 0.9970, 1.00, 1.0030

Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9790, 0.9750

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 24, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. The pair reversed down following the break below its horizontal support at 0.6680, which now acts as a resistance. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning down, calling for a new drop. The relative strength index is badly directed, which indicates that the bearish momentum is still strong. To sum up, as long as 0.6680 is not surpassed, a new pullback seems to be on the cards to 0.6565 and 0.6525.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6565. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6525. The pivot point stands at 0.6680. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6725 and the second target at 0.6755.

Resistance levels: 0.6725, 0.6755, 0.6775

Support levels: 0.6565, 0.6525, 0.650

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 24, 2016

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Since January 26, bullish persistence above 0.6500 was mandatory to keep pushing the NZD/USD pair towards higher bullish targets.

However, a temporary bearish rejection has been expressed around 0.6550 for almost two weeks resulting in the depicted consolidation range.

On January 28, the depicted support level of 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed earlier last week.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The area of 0.6700-0.6750 constituted a significant resistance zone. Recent signs of a bearish rejection were seen near the same zone during the previous few weeks.

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6570.

Moreover, obvious bullish recovery was expressed at 0.6570 (temporary support level) on Wednesday. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6700 was initiated.

The zone of 0.6700-0.6750 remains a significant resistance to offer a valid sell entry. S/L should be located above 0.6770.

Note that persistence below 0.6570 will be essential to allow further bearish decline towards the zone around 0.6500 where price reaction should be watched for a possible buy entry.

If the market fails to move below 0.6570, more sideways movement will be expected.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com