April 23, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair.

Bearish rejection was anticipated around the mentioned price levels (1.3150-1.3180). However, the GBPUSD bullish pullback failed to pursue towards the mentioned zone.

Instead, significant bearish rejection was demonstrated earlier around the price level of 1.3120.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish towards 1.2900, 1.2850 then 1.2800 where the lower limit of the depicted channel comes to meet the GBPUSD pair.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 23, 2019

From America to the United Kingdom and from Russia to Australia, cryptocurrency taxation in major bitcoin strongholds is complicated. Contradictory or non-existent laws, excessive red tape, and maddeningly vague guidelines have conspired to make the tax-paying process more arduous than it need be. Now, a number of advocates are pushing for simplified crypto tax guidelines. Fixing the taxation will be main focus in the next period for cryptos.

Technical picture:

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According to the H4 time-frame, as we mentioned yesterday, the potential for bull move and re-test of upper channel diagonal was in the play and that exactly happened. Since the BTC is trading near the critical resistance at $5.700, our advice is to watch for potential reversal and confirmation of reversal. To confirm reversal, you want to see series of lower lows and lower highs. For now, buyers are in control and the next upward station is set at $5.700. In case of reversal, watch for supports at $5.327, $5.191 and $4.650.

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What is the dollar waiting for this week? The market is betting on growth

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On Tuesday, the dollar returned to growth against a basket of major currencies, the Canadian dollar continues to receive support from rising oil prices after the US decision to tighten restrictions on exports of Iranian oil from next month. The data showed that home sales in the secondary housing market in the US declined in March more than expected due to limited supply, and data on new home sales will be published later. Of course, they can give some guidance on the state of the US economy, but a clearer picture should appear on Friday after the publication of the GDP report.

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Investors should expect an increase in volatility in the coming days, when traders will return to work after the holidays and if US GDP will grow. This week may be convincing evidence that a reversal towards the "dovish policy" from leading central banks, and in particular from the Fed, was enough to change the dynamics of global growth. As for the dollar, there is currently no reason for a serious fall. The recent strengthening of the yen against the dollar will be temporary, and as long as central banks around the world refrain from normalizing politics by raising interest rates, the dollar will feel more than confident. The current "dovish" tone of the regulators supports risky assets, and this support will continue until major Central banks take action to normalize monetary policy.

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EUR./USD analysis for April 23, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.1210. Our short position on EUR/USD from yesterday is progressing good and we expect more downside.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found the successful breakout of the bearish flag pattern, which is sign of the professional re-selling. Key support is seen at the price of 1.1183 and you should watch to at least scale half of the position there. In case the EUR/USD breaks the level of 1.1183, watch for potential test of 1.1065 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Our recommendation: We are bearish from 1.1230 with targets at 1.1183 and 1.1065. Protective stop is palced at 1.1280.

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Gold analysis for April 23, 2019

Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.268.00. Our short position on Gold from yesterday is progressing good and we expect more downside.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found more acceptance below the key support cluster (purple rectangle) at the price of $1.280.00, which is sign that sellers are in big control on the Gold. The 4-month long complex head and shoulders is dominating the background that sellers are very active on the Gold. As long as the Gold is trading below the $1.315.00, we will be bearish.

Our recommendation: We are bearish from yesterday at $1.275.00 but we will add after every decent upward correction structure more selling position. Our advice is to watch for selling positions only. The downward targets are set at $1.211.30 and $1.196.50.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on April 23. The pound remains in the channel but the bears prepares for a breakthrough

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers showed themselves after the test of support at 1.2977, to which I paid attention in my morning review. This led to a large upward rebound of the pair and the test of resistance at 1.3009, which limits the further upward potential of the pound. A breakthrough of this range will open up the opportunity for an upward correction in the area of 1.3036 and 1.3065, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of a retracement of GBP/USD pair to the lower border of the side channel 1.2977, long pound positions are best postponed until new lows of 1.2940 and 1.2909 are updated.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears did not cope with the task for the first half of the day and failed to break below the support of 1.2977. The main goal is to break through and consolidate below this range, which will lead to the renewal of new local minima near 1.2940 and 1.2909, where I recommend taking profits. So far, the sellers have managed only to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance 1.3009 but there is no pressure on the pound. In case that the price returned at 1.3009, short positions are best deferred until the highs of 1.3036 and 1.3065 are updated.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible continuation of the formation of a bullish correction.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is very low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on April 23. The situation has not changed but the probability of a decrease in the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers kept the morning support level, which is now seen in the area of 1.1244. However, it is necessary to break through the resistance of 1.1262 in order to continue the upward trend in the euro. This will lead to the renewal of the highs in the area of 1.1282 and 1.1301, where I recommend taking profits. Good fundamental data on the US economy can put pressure on the pair, hence, when you return in the afternoon to the level of 1.1244 to long positions, it is best to look at the rebound from a minimum of 1.1223.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears could not get through the support level of 1.1247 from the first time, which has shifted slightly and currently in the area of 1.1244. A breakthrough will lead to profit taking in long positions and a decrease in EUR/USD in the area of minimum at 1.1223 and 1.1206, where I recommend taking profits. If the upward correction continues, short positions can return to the false breakdown from the upper border of the side channel at 1.1262 or to the rebound from the large maximum 1.1282.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is very low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brent got dope from Iran

To say that the news about the fact that Washington completed the grace period for buyers of Iranian oil has disturbed the financial markets - not to say anything. The counterparties of Tehran seriously counted on its prolongation, perhaps with some reduction in quotas but a total ban drove the "bears" on Brent and WTI into a stupor. Black gold jumped almost to the semi-annual maxim amid fears of supply disruptions and growing global demand. Confidence of Donald Trump that the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will be able to close the gap will keep the steadily upward movement of oil.

Before the imposition of sanctions last year, Iran was the fourth OPEC producer with a production volume of 4 million b/d. According to estimates by consulting company FGE Energy, the figure fell to 2.5 million b/s and exports to 1-1.3 million b/d to date. However, there is an opinion on the market taking into account illegal shipments, their total volume abroad is about 1.9 million b/s. The lion's part falls on China, Turkey, India, Japan, and South Korea. The first two states have already expressed dissatisfaction with the abolition of the grace period. Washington warned buyers about sanctions against them in case of refusal to reduce the export of Iranian oil to zero. In this situation, everything depends on Tehran, which must abandon its nuclear program.

Iranian oil exports

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According to Goldman Sachs, the take-off of Brent and WTI quotes is associated with a surprise effect, while the emergency reserve capacity of Saudi Arabia, OEA and Russia is estimated to be at 2 million b/s and can increase to 2.5 million b/ s in 2020. This is more than required to close the gap, which will arise as a result of the reduction of Iranian exports around 1 million b/s. The bank predicts that the North Sea variety will stabilize in the range of $70-75 per barrel in the near future.

The decision of Donald Trump really looks like a surprise because he was already taking a tough stance on Iran in 2018. However, it softened due to the negative consequences for the US economy of rising prices for black gold. Will the White House master back down from his plans this time too? This would have been a catastrophe for the "bulls" in Brent and WTI, which increased the long positions in oil and oil products by 564 million barrels in equivalent for 14 weeks in a row, which is one of the longest rally figures for the entire history of accounting.

Therefore, it is quite possible that Trump hopes to bring differences to the ranks of OPEC and other producing countries. Russia is already faced with a choice, whether to lose its market share or withdraw from the contract to reduce production. Further price increases will increase the risk of terminating the agreement, which will be a strong argument for selling oil.

A technically confident breakthrough of resistance at $72.75 per barrel (61.8% of the CD wave) as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern at 5-0 increased the risks of continuing the northern rally of the North Sea variety to $78.95. The level of $72.75 becomes important to support while Brent quotes are above it, the bulls control the market situation.

Brent daily chart

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GBP/USD. April 23rd. The trading system "Regression Channels". No news, just rumors of Theresa May's possible resignation

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -77.3430

Volatility on the GBP/USD currency pair remains minimal. In part, this is due to the same lack of important macroeconomic information from the UK and the States. However, most of the news traders are waiting for it from the UK. When it became known that Brexit was transferred, the markets frankly calmed down and the UK government, which previously gave interviews almost every day. Now there is no hurry, so there is almost no news from the Parliament and Theresa May. The only thing that can be noted is the third vote of no confidence that could threaten Theresa May, which can be issued by her party members. However, firstly, under current legislation, it is impossible to issue a vote twice within one year. The members of the Conservative Party have already explained that with certain changes in the rules for which they are ready to go, this option is possible. But what's next? Next will be another parliamentary vote, and it may well turn out to be about the same situation as with Brexit. That is, Theresa May's resignation will be blocked by a majority vote for a third time. It's not necessary to say that such votes cause a smile more often than a serious attitude towards them. The political turmoil in the United Kingdom continues to cause confusion among many world leaders, and especially EU leaders. Thus, we still believe that Theresa May will remain at the helm.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2985

S2 - 1.2970

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3000

R2 - 1.3016

R3 - 1.3031

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues a weak downward movement, which is still limited by the level of 1.3000, despite the fact that it has already been formally overcome. Low volatility persists.

Buy orders will formally become relevant after fixing the pair above the moving average line with the goal of 1.3123 – the upper limit of the side channel.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR/USD. April 23rd. The trading system "Regression Channels". The prospects for the euro are almost unequivocal – down

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - up

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -43.8777

On Tuesday, April 23, the currency pair EUR/USD adjusted to the moving average line but failed to overcome it. As we wrote the day before, no important macroeconomic reports have been made available to traders in recent days. Thus, the fundamental factor of trading was simply absent on Friday and Monday. Today, the situation will not change at all, the calendar of macroeconomic events is still empty. Thus, based on clean technology, today we expect a resumption of the fall, as the MA has not been overcome. As for the future prospects of the euro currency, they remain vague. There are still no deep fundamental factors that could support the euro. Moreover, the threat of a trade war with the States does not add confidence to the euro. So far, the further mutual threats have not gone, however, knowing Donald Trump, there is reason to believe that he will not stop halfway through. Thus, the EU will have to sit at the negotiating table and, most likely, make serious concessions to the United States. That, of course, will not have a positive impact on the state of the economy, which is already experiencing not the best moments. Thus, we still believe that the euro will sooner or later overcome the important level of 1.1200, which will determine its future.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1200

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1261

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1322

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to resume a downward movement. Thus, now it is still recommended to consider short positions with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1200. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top is very likely near the target levels.

Buy positions are recommended to open no earlier than the consolidation of the pair above the moving average with targets at 1.1229 and 1.1322. The calendar of macroeconomic events today is empty, so volatility can remain low.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 23, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend.

The major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it.

Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it.

This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market.

Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389.

At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY. Simplified wave analysis and forecast for April 23

EUR/USD

The downward wave model of March 20 is developing on the euro chart. It corrects the area of the bullish trend, so the potential for decline is expected to be small. In the structure, an intermediate rollback is formed within the framework of the final part (C).

Forecast:

The forthcoming price move up is estimated in the range of the price chart. A short-term decline is expected in the morning. A breakthrough of the lower limit of the support zone is unlikely. The growth phase can be expected at the end of the day or tomorrow.

Recommendations:

In the area of settlement support, supporters of short-term intraday transactions can look for signals to buy a pair. It is necessary to take into account the correctional nature of the entire rise. For longer trading, you need to wait for the completion of the price rise and look for signals to sell the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1295 / 1.1325

Support zones:

- 1.1230 / 1.1200

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GBP/USD

As seen on the chart of the pair in the last month, the price moves mainly sideways, forming a bearish wave of correction. The final part (C) is not enough to complete the whole structure. In its framework, since the end of last week, an intermediate rollback has been developing.

Forecast:

The internal structure of the current rise in recent days indicates the upcoming price spurt up. The potential for growth is expected no further than the daily average of the pair. Then you can count on a repeated decline.

Recommendations:

Purchases can be recommended only to supporters of intrasessional trade. It is safer to wait out the rollback phase and look for short-trade entry signals in the area of the resistance zone.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3030 / 1.3060

Support zones:

- 1.2980 / 1.2950

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USD/JPY

As seen on the H1 chart, the upward wave of March 25 is not over. It forms the last part in a larger-scale bullish construction. Intermediate downward rollback completed. The wave structure lacks a final price spurt upward.

Forecast:

The chart has all the conditions for the beginning of the active phase of growth. The price rise that began in the Asian session has a reversal potential. In the next session, there is a high probability of a repeated rollback down

Recommendations:

Sales in the coming days are becoming irrelevant. When the price approaches the support zone, it is recommended to monitor the signals of buying the pair. The nearest resistance zone can limit the daily range of the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 112.90 / 113.20

- 112.00 / 112.30

Support zones:

- 111.70 / 111.40

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Explanations for the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 23, 2019

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Overview: The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3228. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.3228 (the level of 1.3228 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3357. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3228 followed by 1.3311, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3377. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3228 and 1.3402; for that we expect a range of 174 pips (1.3402 - 1.3228). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3357, which coincides with the double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3357, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at the levels of 1.3377 and 1.3402. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3282.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The oil will continue to go up against the backdrop of a complete ban on purchases from Iran. Further growth of EURUSD is

The most significant event of yesterday was the decision of the United States to terminate the permits for importing oil from Iran. This was done in order to reduce the export of Iranian oil to zero. This statement was made yesterday by a representative of the White House. After this news, oil prices rose sharply, as did the currencies of oil-producing countries, including the Canadian dollar and the Russian ruble.

Oil demand is also fuelled by the conflict in Libya, which produces more than 1.2 million barrels per day. Let me remind you that US sanctions also apply to Venezuela. Many experts predict an increase in the price of black gold in the area of $80 per barrel. The current price for the WTI brand is already $66, and the demand remains quite high.

More than six months ago, the United States allowed representatives of eight countries to continue to import oil from Iran for 1,800 days but on the condition that each of these countries take measures to reduce such purchases. Permits were valid until May 2. Given the fact that the list of countries has not been published, analysts were confident that China, India, and Turkey are among the main consumers of Iranian oil. The leadership of these countries expected to receive new concessions from the US to buy oil from Tehran, but this did not happen.

During yesterday's speech, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that Iran's influence declined as a result of pressure from the United States, and US oil sanctions cost Iran more than $10 billion.

As for the current technical picture of oil, it is obvious that the price will tend to the highs of October 26, 2018, in the area of 68 dollars per barrel. The breakthrough of this range will open a direct road to the levels of 70 and 73 US dollars.

Yesterday, the European currency managed to strengthen its position after the publication of a weak report on home sales in the secondary market of the USA, which declined in March of this year.

According to the National Association of Realtors, sales in the secondary housing market in March 2019 fell by 4.9% and amounted to 5.21 million homes per year. Economists had expected sales to drop by 3.8% to 5.30 million homes. Compared to the same period of the previous year, home sales fell by 5.4% in March.

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Data on the growth of the index of national economic activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago did not support the dollar, despite the improvement in employment rates.

According to the report, the index rose to -0.15 points in March against -0.31 points in February. For March, the three-month moving average of the national activity index dropped to -0.24 points.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the return to the middle of the channel 1.1250 can form pressure on risky assets, which will lead to a decrease in the lower border area 1.1230. Its breakthrough will resume the downward trend in the area of lows 1.1200 and 1.1180. To maintain the upward correction, EURUSD buyers need to return and consolidate on the resistance of 1.1270, which opens a direct road to the area of the maximum of 1.1300.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 23, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3087. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.3087 to a top around 1.3201 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 1.3140. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3206 followed by 1.3268 , while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3087 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3087 and 1.3268; so we expect a range of 181 pips in coming days. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3206, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3268) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.3087 with the first target at 1.3206 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3268. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3268 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3087, a further decline to 1.2976 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Selling of EUR/USD and AUD/USD pairs as the foreign exchange market continues to swing from side to side

The foreign exchange market continues to be characterized by an unconventional extremely low activity and accompanied by the same low volatility.

We have repeatedly pointed out earlier that the uncertainty caused by the actions of the world's largest central banks led by the Fed, regarding the prospects for monetary policy which resulted to a significant decrease in investor activity on the Forex market. But in the past few months, the US stock market has been growing uncontrollably in the wake of the "buybacks" of the largest industry giants and the unstoppable growth of stock indices. All of these also happen against the background of a directly proportional fall in market volumes. It seems that the owners of these companies are still using the possibilities of high and sufficiently cheap liquidity to repurchase shares of their companies under conditions of uncertainty and low market volumes. It seems that the owners of these companies are still using the possibilities of high and sufficiently cheap liquidity to repurchase shares of their companies under conditions of uncertainty and low market volumes.

Looking back to the likely actions of the Fed, its May meeting will be important for understanding possible further actions by the American regulator as we see it. After the collapse of the local stock market at the end of last year, the Central Bank abruptly changed its view of the course of monetary policy and made it clear that it was a wait-and-see attitude earlier this year. At the March meeting, he confirmed his tactical plans and now, from its May meeting, investors are already waiting for some real action while hoping that the regulator will nevertheless take a final decision on the prospective reduction of interest rates in order to maintain the demand for US assets. Yet, so far, the market has no firm conviction that this is exactly what the bank will do, which is why there is a drop in market volumes with a simultaneous strong decrease in volatility.

Given this state of affairs, we believe that the overall lateral dynamics in the main currency pairs will continue at least until the Fed's monetary policy meeting.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair continues to drift down, remaining in the lateral range generally. If the price holds below the level of 1.1245, it can continue falling to 1.1225 and then to 1.1210.

The AUD/USD pair is likely to continue its local decline in the prospects for an increase in RBA interest rates. We consider it possible to sell the pair with promising targets of 0.7090 and 0.7070.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 23, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1280. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1280 to the bottom around 1.1225.

Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1280 followed by 1.1310, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1179.

According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1180; for that we expect a range of 102 pips. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1280, the market will decline further to 1.1179.

This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1137 with a view to test the second support.

On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1280 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for April 23, 2019

EUR/JPY has been making corrections amid indecisive market sentiment. The price is epected to extend a climb higher in the short term.

The eurozone is facing an economic slowdown. Besides, Brexit is a source of persistent uncertainty. The ZEW economic sentiment survey of Germany, which is a key gauge of investor confidence, revealed a bounce of the index last week which stuck on a negative territory for the past 12 months. The economic sentiment index climbed into positive territory in April 2019. The Eurozone ZEW indicator also surged to 4.5 from -2.5 which is also a strong dynamic. In the last policy meeting, the ECB stated that its main focus would be to ensure the continued consumer inflation slightly below 2% over the medium term. The leading indicator would be important to investors to measure the market sentiment.

Euro area's real Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.2%, in the fourth quarter of 2018, following an increase of 0.1% in Q3. Annual HICP inflation decreased to 1.4% in March 2019 while the manufacturing sector remains feeble due to weak external demand. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations recovered to 3.7% in February 2019.

Last Week, the Consumer Price Index remained unchanged at 1.4% along with the Core CPI at 0.8%. The French Flash Service PMI also rose from 49.1 to 50.5 while the German Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 44.5 from the expectated 45.2. The main focus for this week will be the Spanish Unemployment rate which is expected to be unchanged at 14.5%.

On the JPY side, today BOJ Core CPI report was published with an uptick to 0.5% as expected from the previous value of 0.4%. The Bank of Japan is likely to keep the key policy rate steady at -0.10% at the nearest policy meeting this week. Ahead of BOJ Outlook report and Monetary Policy Statement, JPY could lose momentum as the domestic economy has been affected by a global slowdown. Besides, the government is going to impose a tax hike to spur consumer spending and retail sales.

Moreover, the Bank of Japan is ready to ramp up stimulus which will include a range of measures if the economy loses momentum. The regulator aims to hit a 2% inflation target. Any further step on this will affect both the domestic economy and the banking system. According to Maeda, if the economy's momentum for achieving its inflation target is threatened, the central bank will ease monetary policy.

Meanwhile, EUR has been weighed down by economic and political issues. JPY is indecisive and shaky as the BOJ chases the inflation target rather than tackles economic challenges. This takes the shine off JPY. So, EUR is holding the upper hand over JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above 125.50 area under strong impulsive bullish pressure that could lead to further upside momentum. For better confirmation, a daily close above 126.00 is required. If the price manages to break above 126.00 area with a daily close, it is expected to climb higher towards 127.00 and later towards 128.50 resistance area in the future.

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for April 23. The second bearish divergence is preparing the pair to fall

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair just started growing in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.1281), as the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator was formed. As a result, the pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of returning to the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1241). The consolidation of the quotes on April 23 under the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of the pair to continue falling in the direction of the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177). Today, the emerging divergence is not observed on any indicator.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair has completed the closing under the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285). Thus, the fall of the pair on the current chart can be continued in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941). However, we still pay attention to the two previous low pairs, around which a reversal in favor of the European currency can be made. The closing of the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the EU currency and expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading advice:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1281 if the pair rebounds from the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1241.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177 if the pair closes below the level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1241.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergences for April 23. Pound met a barrier in the form of the level 1.2976

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair completed a fall to the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2969), however, there is still no rebound or close below this level. As a result, traders have to wait for either a rebound or a close below this level to determine the direction of trading on April 23. The rebound from 61.8% will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094). Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances of continuing the fall towards the next retracement level of 50.0% (1.2868).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a return to the retracement level of 100.0% (1.2976) and rebound from this level. As a result, the quotes performed a reversal in favor of the British currency and started new growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3028). None of the indicators have emerging divergences on the current chart. Closing the course of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to expect a slight drop in the direction of the retracement level of 127.2% (1.2917).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 29, 2019, and April 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3028 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 100.0% since the pair completed the rebound from 1.2976 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2917 and a stop loss order above the level of 100.0% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2976 (hourly chart).

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Barclays: Sanctions against Iran will support the rise in oil prices only in the short term

Increased US sanctions aimed at maximizing the export of Iranian oil, which of course, significantly reduce the oil market in the short term. However, it is unlikely to have a big impact on prices over a longer period, according to a statement by Barclays experts.

Washington demanded that the remaining buyers of Iranian oil stop buying by May 1 or they will face sanctions. The decision to completely cut off Tehran's oil revenues resulted in oil prices reaching six-month highs due to fears of a possible reduction in supply.

"This step subjects to essential risk for our current forecast of the average price of Brent oil this year, which assumes cost at the level of 70 dollars per barrel in comparison with the average index at the level of 65 dollars per barrel, but it does not, in our opinion, exert a substantial influence on the long-term price formation", they stated in Barclays.

However, even with the fact that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are likely to fill the supply gap created after tightening US sanctions, the bank expects Riyadh to take time to adapt to changes on the market and build a scheme that will help avoid cuts in supply. Barclays also said that the US decision increased the risk of conflict in the Middle East including the potential closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. According to the bank, the reaction of key consumers of Iranian oil, particularly China and India, will also be of key importance since it may be problematic for them to completely refuse from these supplies.

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With new forces in battle: Trading plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 04/23/2019

As expected, the market was extremely quiet and calm and even the news on home sales in the secondary market of the United States fell by 4.9% instead of declining by 2.3%. As predicted, it left everyone behind indifferent due to continued celebration of Easter in Europe and no one worked. So to say, everyone was not up to the plight of American realtors.

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Today, Europeans are well rested and gaining fresh strength and are going into battle. Moreover they face the task of correcting the misunderstanding that happened last Thursday , when an extremely self-respecting means of mass agitation and disinformation started a rumor that the current head of the German Federal Bank could become the new head of the European Central Bank. Naturally, this means of mass agitation and disinformation is American. Moreover, its founder, leader and owner is a prominent representative of the Republican Party, whose one of goals is the economic dominance of the United States. It is not even a goal but given for granted. Hence, the Europeans need to play everything back since the news itself is a throw-in, because Jens Weidemann, who heads the German Federal bank, is not even among the five most likely candidates for the post of head of the European Central Bank. Of course, no one will be allowed to forget about yesterday's data on home sales in the secondary market, since there will be data on sales of new homes in the United States today, which should be reduced by 2.6%.

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The euro/dollar currency pair showed a sharp slowdown after the pulse of Thursday last week, which resulted in a pullback. It is likely to assume that the pullback will continue in the market in the direction of 1.1270-1.1285.

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The pound/dollar currency pair drew a sharp slowdown in the same range after a return to the range level of 1.2970 / 1.3000. It is likely that a pullback from the range level is considered as a possible scenario, where the perspective of the move is in the range of 1.3030-1.3050.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 23. There are chances for the growth of the euro, but not too big.

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Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, April 22, trading ended on EUR / USD with a minimum increase of just 12 bp. Thus, the estimated wave 2 is now considered complete. At the same time, the news background, which is missing in recent days, may cause new sales of the euro in the future. That is, the main resistance for the Euro currency now is included in the news. There are very few positive news from the European Union. The ECB is not happy with the markets. Thus, the minimum of wave 2 is now considered as a reference point for future instrument enhancement. A successful breakthrough attempt means that the pair is not yet ready to increase. This will require adjustments to the current wave marking.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1476 - 76.4% on the highest Fibonacci grid.

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair presumably remains within the framework of the construction of wave c, and its internal wave 2 is probably completed. Thus, now is a good opportunity to buy a pair based on the construction of wave 3, with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1387, which corresponds to Fibonacci 76.4%. Like before, I recommend early purchases in small lots and increase them as the execution of the working version is confirmed.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for April 23. Pound sterling: no change in the wave pattern

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Wave counting analysis:

On April 22, the GBP / USD currency pair continued a slow decline to the Fibonacci level of 0.0%. Yesterday, the amount of loss for the pair was only 15 basic points. Based on this, there is no need to make any changes to the current wave marking. Although for the trend section, taking its start looks out of the box. Nevertheless, the instrument remains within a narrowing triangle, which is now forming a trend for the pair. The news background of the couple is now completely absent. No news on Brexit has been received in recent days. There was information that Theresa May resigned, but such information appeared in the past six months at least 5 times and each time, the premier remained in her chair.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern still involves the construction of a downward trend. And the markets still keep the pair in a triangle; therefore, the trades are held with a small amplitude. Accordingly, I recommend expecting a pair out of the triangle to determine the market mood in the near future. A successful attempt to break the 0.0% mark on Fibonacci will be a strong signal to sell the pair GBP / USD.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 23)

For the last trading day, euro / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 27 points, but that was enough to draw a rollback on the market in general terms. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have two phases. The first reflects the pulse of the end of the past weeks against the background of emissions from the information background. As a result of which, the quote slipped by as much as 70 points, reaching the level of 1.1225 for the accumulation of early April. The second phase reflects the primary stagnation at 1.1235 / 1.1250, where a long-awaited rollback was subsequently received.

Informational and news background was absent due to the celebration of Bright Monday in Britain and the EU. The only thing that was published was the statistics on sales in the secondary housing market of the United States, where there was a decrease from 5.48M to 5.21M.

Today, after long holidays, all market participants have returned. In terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any statistics from the EU. However, for the United States, data on sales of new housing will be published, where they again expect a decline from 667K to 647K.

United States 17:00 MSK - Sales of new housing (Mar): Prev. 667K ---> 647K Forecast

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Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that after all, the quotation is still in the rollback phase, even though it has rolled back to the area of the recent accumulation at 1.1235 / 1.1250. It is likely to assume that the pullback will still remain in the market, where traders had previously considered the entry point after the breakdown of the 1.1235 / 1.1250 cluster. The perspective with the primary point is 1.1270. The deeper move is 1.1290-1.1300.

- If you still do not have positions to buy, then it makes sense to wait a bit, fixing the price is higher than 1.1270, or enter at level 1.1250 like mostly, with a primary perspective of 1.1270

- In the case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.1225, the positions for sale are with preservation of bearish interest. The primary perspective is 1.1180.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that in the short and intraday perspective, an upward interest has appeared against the background of a rollback. The medium-term perspective maintains a downward interest in the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 23 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 19 points. Due to the end of holidays and the return of trading volumes to the market, it is likely to assume that volatility may increase, but I do not expect anything extreme that would exceed the daily average.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Bitcoin: The Fundamental Causes of Bullish Turn

The cryptocurrency market enters a new wave of growth, and if in 2017 this wave was largely provoked by the exit of Bitcoin on the Stock Exchange and the beginning of futures trading, which was regarded by the markets as the green light of the expansion of cryptocurrencies into the financial instruments sector, the reason is completely different now.

On March 20, the US Federal Reserve announced the completion of the growth rate cycle, and this announcement was accompanied by a deterioration of macroeconomic forecasts.

The natural interest rate is a short-term rate that occurs when the economy has reached maximum employment and has a stable inflation. Approximately, this picture is observed at the current moment - employment is at the level of multi-year lows, while inflation is close to the target of 2% and fluctuates slightly. According to Taylor's rule, the Fed must increase the federal funds rate if inflation goes above its target level or unemployment decline below the natural rate, and reduce it if the reverse occurs. From this point of view, the Fed has now no reason to increase the rate. At the same time, a number of criteria indicate that a recession is approaching, and if negative trends develop, the Fed will be faced with the need to lower the rate.

Similar processes occur in the economies of other developed countries. Before the 2008 crisis, the rates (with the exception of Japan, which has been struggling with deflation for many years) ranged from 4% to 6%, which made it possible to reduce them to zero in the framework of the fight against the crisis.

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Now, the rates are already at near-zero levels, and the possible arrival of a recession excludes the possibility of reducing the rates as part of the fight against it. This tool by the Central banks have been completely exhausted. Leaving rates deep into the negative zone will lead to the need to ban cash, which, in turn, can significantly increase the crisis.

This means that Central banks need to seek unconventional methods of dealing with the crisis. Ten years ago, quantitative easing and asset redemption programs became their method. Since then, central bank balances have remained bloated, which automatically limits the use of this tool in the fight against the new crisis.

What other methods of dealing with the crisis remain, if all the traditional ones have been exhausted? The answer to this question will become obvious if we summarize the requirements. In their first approximation, they look like this:

- to prevent clustering and de-dollarization of world trade;

- to prevent the decline in bank income;

- to stimulate the economy without the use of traditional resources that have exhausted themselves - emissions and lower rates;

- to prevent the creation of a parallel cash contour based on a non-US dollar.

The solution of all these problems is possible in several steps with the help of a complex scheme. The essence of which is the need for the banking system to intercept control over the rapidly developing sector of cryptocurrencies.

The first stage will be replaced by the expansion of stablecoins - cryptocurrency tokens, which will be issued by large banks and corporations. Their goal is to revive the consumer market and test the technology for the third and main step - the release of cryptocurrency by Central banks. To attract institutional investors to the market, the launch of the Bakkt cryptocurrency exchange is being prepared, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), a giant that owns 23 exchanges, including the world's largest New York Stock Exchange, is engaged in implementation.

The world is on the verge of a new wave of expansion of cryptocurrencies, which will be caused by the need to arrest the threat of recession. Thus, cryptocurrencies will have to assume the role of "quantitative expansion".

The main focus will be on the stablecoins issued by large banks and corporations, that is, cryptocurrencies, the value of which will be tied to the US dollar, but will also affect other popular tokens, primarily Bitcoin. Bitcoin, in turn, drags the crypto market as a whole.

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Technically, Bitcoin is already ready for the most important step, coming close to the resistance zone 5700/6100, which for several months served as a support last year. Its passage will provoke a sharp increase in the cryptographic market as a whole, especially if it coincides with the decisions of the SEC to resolve the pending ETF launch projects and the opening of the Bakkt exchange.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for April 23, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, technical analysis demonstrates a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.2911 is the pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, technical analysis demonstrates a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.2911 is the pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for April 23, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the market will continue to move downwards. The first lower target is 1.1238, while the pullback level is 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the market will continue to move downwards. The first lower target is 1.1238, while the pullback level is 61.8% (blue dotted line) and further down.

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Fundamental analysis of GBP/USD for April 23, 2019

The UK released downbeat CPI and strong retail sales reports which created indecisive mood in the market regarding further GBP gains. At the same time, USD has managed to sustain momentum against the pound recently.

It seems that the UK government has reached a deadlock in the Brexit issue which has a negative impact on the British economy. The UK is currently in the grip of a political impasse that shows no prospect of easing. Theresa May's government failed to strike a deal on Brexit, so the exit procedure was postponed untill October 2019.

Easter holidays have ended, so traders get back to work. Tomorrow the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.8B from the previous figure of -0.7B. The lower the net borrowings, the better the economic conditions, so a decline can be a favorable sign. Moreover, on Friday the UK High Street Lending is expected to be positive with an increase to 38.7k from the previous figure of 35.3k. If the actual reading comes in line with expectations, GBP will extend gains.

As for the news from the United States, the GDP data will see the light this week. It is expected to be unchanged at 2.2% while the advance GDP Price Index is expected to decrease to 1.3% from the previous value of 1.8%. Ahead of this report USD is trading mixed but it is stronger against GBP. According to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasting model, the US economy expanded at 2.8% in annual terms in the first quarter based on the data that showed domestic retail sales grew at their strongest pace in March. It reflected a faster pace of growth than the official reading of 2.4%. Recently, the US Existing Home Sales report was published with a decrease to 5.21M from the previous figure of 5.48M. It affected the overall impulsive momentum of USD.

Today, the US New Home Sales report is going to be published. Analysts predicted a decline to 647k from the previous figure of 667k. Besides, the Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected to be unchanged at 10.

As of the current scenario, the pound sterling is trying to sustain the gains while the US dollar is facing downward risks with the pessimistic economic expectations. If the actual results fails to meet the forecast, it may lead to further correction of the pair. On the contrary, positive economic results are expected to provide support to USD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently correcting in a range bound after the impulsive bearish pressure. The price is hovering between 1.2950 and 1.30 area from where it is expected to correct further and result in certain pullbacks before the price continues with the bearish trend. As the price remains below 1.3050 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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USD/JPY and NZD/USD: Asian countries are preparing for the worst

Markets come out of sleep after a long weekend and the first data is generally neutral. Stock indices opened near the end of the week levels. Gold declines in response to lower panic while oil responded with an increase in US new pressure initiatives on Iran. At the same time, long-term trends look frankly weak and more and more signs that measures to protect against the onset of a global crisis cannot be found.

USD / JPY pair

The Bank of Japan is increasingly falling into a state of near panic and this panic begins to break through the dry numbers of statistical reports. In a report on financial stability published last week, BoJ notes that the profitability of domestic operations for attracting deposits and lending continues to decline despite the fact that the financial system of Japan as a whole looks stable. This trend is due to structural factors against the background of declining exports and a reduction in the manufacturing sector. The demand for loans is falling while the population is declining and interest rates have remained too low for a longer time.

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Banks cannot make a profit commensurate with the level of risk, such indicators of financial system stability can be weighted assets, capital adequacy ratios for operational activities and stress resistance decrease.

The Bank of Japan warns that if the trend continues, then the financial system will increase downward pressure on the real economy. They stress that any talk about raising the rate to help regional banks is suicidal, as it will lead to deflation and a rapid increase in rate of the yen.

The Bank of Japan sees expansion in new business areas, primarily in terms of expanding the range and volume of operations abroad. This means a weakening in the regulation of banks, that is, including a direct call for entering the cryptocurrency market.

On April 25, the Bank of Japan will present updated forecasts for GDP and inflation. The markets are waiting for worsening forecasts for inflation and GDP for 2018, which will put pressure on the yen. The USD/JPY pair is in front of resistance at 112.13, which will be attacked in the very near future. There are no reasons to wait for a bearish reversal as the yen will continue to weaken, aiming at the medium-term target of 114.50.

NZD / USD pair

The economy of New Zealand looks balanced at the moment and grows in line with forecasts. However, a number of key parameters show signs of slowing down. The country is largely focused on foreign markets, and the decline in export opportunities leads to a large-scale slowdown in all sectors of the economy without exception. First of all, risks are rising due to fears of a global slowdown.

Even if export volumes are at levels close to the average, the companies' immediate expectations are sharply negative, as shown in the research of ANZ bank. Reduced export capacity is expected to lead to a crisis comparable to the Asian crisis of 1997/99 and the global crisis of 2008/09.

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The GDP growth at 0.6% in 4 square meters. Last year still indicated a good expansion rate but by 2 square meters. For this year, the annual GDP growth rate fell to 2%. The housing market has slowed sharply and revenue growth is noticeably lagging behind the growth in housing prices, which required a number of government measures such as checking the source of income before purchasing real estate and restrictions for foreign buyers.

Currently, there is growing confidence in the markets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will continue the cycle of rate cuts in the current year. Since at the March meeting, the RBNZ changed the rhetoric to a markedly more dovish one. If at the beginning of the year the first reduction is 25p, which was projected for November, it is now expected that this step will be taken as early as August and then in November and February 2020. The central bank will lower the rate twice more. In fact, the RBNZ has no other way out after the Fed has stopped its tightening cycle and the pressure on the kiwi will increase.

The long-term goal for NZD/USD pair is the support of 0.6421. In the short-term, we can expect a decline to 0.6590/95. The corrective growth is limited to the zone of 0.6710/20. Kiwi will be under pressure and there is practically no reason to wait for a turn up.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for April 23, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD 4H chart displayed today is focused on the drop between 1.1448 and 1.1183 levels respectively. In the past few days, we have been discussing on the potential counter trend rally that began from 1.1183 last week. This counter trend rally might still be having some steam left towards 1.1350 levels, before giving in to bears again. If we look at the structure presented here, the larger boundary that is being worked upon seems to be between 1.1448 and 1.1183 levels respectively. Prices reversed from the 50% retracement around 1.1324 levels as seen here. At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is trading clearly into sell zone of the counter trend rally but potential remains towards a push higher towards 1.1350 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 resistance of previous drop. In this case, we could expect prices to trade above 1.1183 levels going forward by probably by tomorrow, it extends a rally towards 1.1350 levels respectively. On the flip side, a drop below 1.1183 levels would confirm that a meaningful top might be already in place at 1.1324 levels and that bears are on their way lower.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain long against 1.1183 levels targeting 1.1285 and 1.1359

Good luck!

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Bitcoin. Bulls coped with the pressure and continued growth

Yesterday, the reversal model for Bitcoin, which was almost formed, put buyers of the cryptocurrency in a rather nervous position, but they successfully got out of the current situation. Not letting Bitcoin below the support of 5220, which was responsible for the entire model, the major players continued the upward trend, which led to the update of the monthly highs.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

Now, a new signal to buy will be the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 5520, which will lead to the continuation of the upward trend and the update of the large resistance at 5690, where I recommend taking profits. However, the main goal of the bulls will be the highs of 5880 and 6000 USD. In the case of a decrease in the Bitcoin rate, the support will also be provided by the area of 5400 and 5220.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

The task of the bears for today will be to return and consolidate under the intermediate support level of 5520, which will lead to a larger downward correction to the level of 5400, where I recommend taking profits. A more optimal scenario for opening short positions in Bitcoin would be a test of the maximum of 5690 and 5880.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 23)

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 22 points again, continuing to stagnate in the same place. From the point of view of technical analysis, nothing has changed. The quotation continues to develop in the narrow framework of 1.2970 / 1.3000, forming an accumulation as a fact. Meanwhile, informational and news background was absent due to the celebration of Bright Monday in Britain and the European Union. The only thing that was published was the statistics on sales in the secondary housing market of the United States, where there was a decrease from 5.48M to 5.21M. However, due to the lack of trading volumes, the news did not win back.

Today, after long holidays, all market participants returned. In terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any statistics from Britain, but data on sales of new housing will be published across the States, where they again expect a decline from 667K to 647K.

United States 17:00 MSK - Sales of new housing (Mar): Prev. 667K ---> 647K Forecast

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Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the bumpiness within 1.2970 / 1.3000 is maintained in the market, where the quotation closely approached the bottom of the cluster. The principle of trading with traders has not changed, the "Breakdown of the Borders" technique is used, where the waiting position is involved and precise price fixations outside the borders are tracked.

- Positions for the purchase are considered in the case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.3000, with preservation of bullish interest. The primary outlook is 1.3030-1.3050.

- Positions for sale in the case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.2970 with preservation of bearish interest. The primary perspective is 1.2960-1.3030.

In both cases, it is not the puncture that is of interest, but precisely the breakdown with clear fixation and preservation of interest.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest in the short, intraday and medium term. It should be understood that the price is in a range of clusters. Therefore, indicators can be changeable.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 23 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 15 points. It is likely to assume that in case of a breakdown of a cluster (1.2970 / 1.3000), volatility may appear on the market.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3000 **; 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 **; 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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