BITCOIN Analysis for May 7, 2018

Bitcoin is currently quite bearish in nature after being bounced off the $10,000 price area recently. Bitcoin has been quite non-volatile and impulsive with the bullish pressure recently which lead the price nearer to the psychological level of $10,000. Though there has been a lot of speculations that the price will clear $10,000 with ease but recently the speculated proved wrong when the price rejects off the $10,000 with an impulsive bearish pressure. Though the trend is still quite bullish and still there are certain support areas like Kumo Cloud, Dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line and also the price area of $8,500 which has been an important area of support as well. Certain Bearish Divergence is also observed along the way which is expected to lead to upcoming retracements before pushing higher in the future. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to correct itself along the way. We foresee a push higher breaching above $10,000 and heading towards $11,500 in the coming days. As the price remains above $8,500 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 07, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 1.3534.

The GBP/USD pair was trading around the area of 1.3534 a week ago. Today, the level of 1.3485 represents a daily support in the H1 time frame. The pair has already formed the minor resistance at 1.3604 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 1.3678 as it represents the weekly resistance 1. So, the major resistance is seen at 1.3678, while immediate support is found at 1.3485. If the pair closes below the weekly pivot point of 1.3534, the GBP/USD pair may resume its movement to 1.3485 to test the weekly support 1. From this point, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between the levels of 1.3534 and 1.3485. Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market and the current price is below the moving average 100. As a result, sell below the level of 1.3485 with targets at 1.3422 and 1.3337 in order to form a new double bottom. However, stop loss should always be taken into account; accordingly, it will be beneficial to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 1.3678.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for May 7, 2018

USD/JPY has been non-volatile and impulsive with the bullish gains recently which is expected to extend its horizons further upwards in the coming days. Despite the mixed economic reports of USD published on Friday, the currency managed to gain momentum today in an impulsive manner which is expected to push the price higher in the future.

Today JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were held which did not quite help the JPY to gain momentum against the impulsive bullish pressure of USD. This week, certain impactful economic reports and events on the JPY side is going to be published where the outcomes are forecasted to have mixed results in the coming days.

On the USD side, today FOMC Member Bostic and Barkin are going to speak about the upcoming interest rates decision which is expected to be quite neutral in nature and Consumer Credit report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 16.2B from the previous figure of 10.6B. Additionally, tomorrow Fed Chair Powell is going to speak tomorrow about the economic developments, interest rates and upcoming monetary policy which is expected to have a greater impact on the upcoming price action of the market and may result in further gains on the USD side against JPY in the coming days.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to strengthen itself further against JPY despite the upcoming economic reports results to be published this week. The market sentiment seemed to be on the USD side whereas Bank of Japan is currently looking at the long-term growth leading to slower gains on the JPY side in the coming days. To sum up, USD is expected to have an upper hand on JPY in the coming days of the week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 109.20 resistance area from where the price is expected to push higher towards 110.50 and later towards 112.00 area in the future. The price is being supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA alongside the horizontal support area of 108.50-109.20. As the price remains above 108.50 area with a daily close, further bullish momentum is expected in the future.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 07, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair opened below the daily pivot point (1.1964). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1964 to the bottom around 1.1912. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1964 followed by 1.2016, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1912. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1912. So it will be good to sell at 1.1912 with the first target of 1.1839. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1782.

The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1782 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1912 and 1.1782 in coming hours. The price area of 0.6632 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1964 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1964, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1990.

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Global macro overview for 07/05/2018:

Crude oil in the US is more expensive, by 1.4 percent, and is already priced above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014 because the global investors are still waiting for important decisions - US President Donald Trump has the coming days to decide whether to restore American sanctions against Iran. Trump criticizes the agreement with Iran in 2015.

The goal of an agreement concluded in July 2015 between six powers (Germany, China, USA, France, Great Britain and Russia), and Iran is to limit the country's nuclear program in exchange for the abolition of sanctions. Trump announced earlier that if the US together with the European allies fails to change the deal with Iran, the US will withdraw from the deal. The decision on this matter is to be made by May 12.

Meanwhile, Iran's president Hasan Rowhani said on Sunday that his country had prepared plans for reaction to every decision of the US president regarding the 2015 nuclear contract. He warned that the US would regret "as never before" if they withdrew from the contract. "We have plans to resist any Trump decision on a nuclear deal," said Rowhani. "If the United States leaves the nuclear agreement, soon you will see that they will regret it, as never before in history," he added.

In conclusion, new sanctions on Iran would remove some of Iran's oil in global fuel markets, which would exacerbate the supply-demand situation and support higher oil prices.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a new local high at the level of 70.66 in extremely overbought conditions. The next target for bulls must be taken from the weekly time frame at this would be the 61% Fibo at the level of 76.95. On the other hand, the immediate support is seen at the level of 69.56. The trend remains bullish.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for May 7, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impressive with the recent non-volatile bearish impulsive momentum. Currently, the price is residing below 1.20 support area from where it is expected to retrace for a certain period before the bearish trend continues with its impulsive momentum.

USD has been quite mixed with the recent high impact economic reports which did not quite weaken the strength of the currency whereas it is getting stronger every day. The decrease in Unemployment Rate to 3.9% from the previous value of 4.1% did help USD to gain some confidence but not meeting the expected figure of Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings lead to certain confusion in the market sentiment whereas EUR has also been struggling with the worse economic reports published lately.

Today EUR German Factory Orders report was published with decrease to -0.9% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to increase to 0.5%, Retail Sales PMI was decreased to 48.6 from the previous figure of 50.1 and Sentix Investor Confidence report was also published with decreased figure of 19.2 from the previous figure of 19.6 which was expected to increase to 21.2.

On the other hand, ahead of the PPI and CPI reports to be published this week, today FOMC Member Bostic and Barkin is going to speak about the upcoming interest rates decision which is expected to be quite neutral in nature and Consumer Credit report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 16.2B from the previous figure of 10.6B. Additionally, tomorrow Fed Chair Powell is going to speak tomorrow about the economic developments, interest rates and upcoming monetary policy which is expected to have a greater impact on the upcoming price action of the market.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to continue its bearish impulsive pressure until any worse economic report or event impacts the growth of the USD in the coming days. EUR is expected to struggle further as the upcoming holidays and dovish economic reports forecasts to be published in the coming days of the week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish gains whereas certain bullish pressure was observed in the first hours but it was later engulfed quite well with the intraday candles. Currently, the price is residing below 1.1950 area which is expected to push much lower towards 1.1720 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2050 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Global macro overview for 07/05/2018

We are opening a new week in a calm climate, but nothing is happening in the markets (especially peace) without end and this atmosphere can be the most deceptive. The US labor market report came out risk-friendly, though it does not take away the vigor of the dollar. Now the marathon of Fed representatives' speech may disturb harmony.

The market showed on Friday that it still has the appetite to buy the dollar. The April NFP report was not particularly favorable, and yet the USD managed to pull itself up after a temporary weakening. We got lower readings for employment and wages, but the devil was in the details. The revision of last month data were up by 30k. The change of jobs in the previous two months was compensated by the weaker April result (164 k, expected 193k), and the unequal wage growth rate was 0.149% (0.2% threshold). Thus, on the one hand, the data were not so weak as to disturb the USD position, but on the other hand, they were not so favorable from the side of inflationary pressure to arouse panic among risky assets. As a result, the USD may still be used to close short positions and/or to open new long ones, but also to avoid the panic that would hit the stock market or risky currencies.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a new marginal higher high at the level of 92.89, but the candle has closed on its lows, which is indicating a supply pressure. The key technical support to the downside is seen at the level of 92.21 and if violated, then the next support is seen at the level of 92.00. The clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator support the short-term bearish bias.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 07, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $9.170. The Japanese financial regulator has imposed five new criteria for all cryptocurrency exchanges operating in the country. These rules apply to existing exchange operators as well as new ones applying for registration for the first time. On-site inspections will be conducted on all exchanges prior to approval. Technical picture on Bitcoin looks neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found that the price failed to hold above the recent high at $9.714, which is a sign of weakness. I also found a bearish flag in creation, which is another sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. According to the current structure, the most recent downward movement is potentially part of larger correction (C wave). Watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $8.606.

Support/Resistance

$9.356 – Intraday resistance

$9.174– Intraday support

$8.606 – Objective target

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EUR/USD analysis for May 07, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1921. According to the H1 time – frame, I found that the price is trading inside of the downward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a potential 3-drive pattern in creation, which is a sign that EUR/USD might create another downward swing. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1890.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2000

R2: 1.2040

R3: 1.2087

Support levels:

S1: 1.1918

S2: 1.1872

S3: 1.1833

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for May 7, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred yesterday.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.7000 and 0.6860. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) (significant supply zone) for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7260.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 7, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

The depicted Multiple-Top pattern needs the current bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be maintained on a daily basis. Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.1990, then 1.1880.

Trade Recommendation:

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2190-1.2200 for a valid low-risk SELL entry.

T/P levels should be located around 1.2070-1.1990, while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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Trading plan 05/07/2018

Trading plan 05/07/2018

The picture: The market chooses the direction.

In the new week, a little news is expected. It is worth to pay attention to the inflation in the US on Thursday.

The news last week did not give a strong impetus, whereas, the strengthening the dollar will probably reach a local limit.

A strong pullback is possible but the movement is likely to continue.

For GBP / USD pair: the range is forming.

We are buying from the level of 1.3460.

We are selling from the level of 1.3460.

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USD/JPY analysis for May 07, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 109.32. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a broken downward channel, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 110.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 109.34

R2: 109.62

R3: 109.96

Support levels:

S1: 108.71

S2: 108.25

S3: 108.08

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 07/05/2018

The company Swedish Miner One created a story by sending a Bitcoin miner called Space Miner One into the stratosphere, where it extracted Bitcoin almost 30.5 km above the surface of the planet.

Attached to the weather balloon, the Space Miner One platform drifted through the lower atmosphere, then returned to Earth on parachute, where it was safely recovered from the field in Lithuania. The platform was connected to the Internet via a satellite telephone and was equipped with an ASIC extraction system, Raspberry Pi 3, battery, GoPro Hero 5 and a commemorative metal coin. "The goal of Space Miner One is the symbolic expression of our belief that basically Bitcoin and cryptocurrency relate to the future and revolutionary technology: the so-called Blockchain technology. And thanks to this new technology, there are no borders beyond the sky. " said the president of Miner One, Pranas Slusnys.

Slusnys has over 20 years of experience in the IT & T industry as well as the construction and management of the data center. The Miner One project is currently raising funds for the construction of a mining farm in northern Sweden, where low temperatures and energy costs will work in favor of the crypto mine project, which, according to the team, will provide investors with higher profits than mining in their own country. The next stage of the project is the construction of a mining center. Slusnys says that they are eager to start mining, in particular because of the rebound of Bitcoin and Etherium prices, claiming that this will allow the purchase of more of the most modern equipment that is needed to develop the initiative. The project has committed to start paying out investors before the end of summer.

President Miner One said that while the flight was symbolic, he deeply believes that the extraction of cryptocurrencies in the future will become a reality: "We believe that the mining and technology on which it is based will finally reach the cosmos. In a sense, this is already the case in which communication channels that carry information around the Bitcoin network use satellites."

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has completed five wave advance to the upside at the level of $9,913 and now the corrective pull-back cycle in developing. The price has broken below the weekly pivot at the level of $9,409 already and now is heading towards another support at the level of $9,050 ($9,000). The corrective cycle might be deep and can extend towards the levels of $8,608 or $8,355 or even $8,132. The overall impulsive scenario invalidation level is at $6,402.

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Technical analysis on USDX for May 7, 2018

The Dollar index has broken out of the bullish channel. Despite the new high on the Daily chart we observe a bearish divergence. Last week we noted the bearish divergence signs in the 4 hour chart. I continue to believe that the Dollar looks toppy around current levels and it is not worth chasing bullish positions but looking signs of weakness to sell.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Downward sloping blue line - bearish divergence

The Dollar index is expected to make a pull back towards 92 at least. Currently trading at 92.80 it has very important resistance here at 93. Very important short-term support is at 91. A break below it will increase the chances that a major top is in. I'm bearish the Dollar.

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Technical analysis on Gold for May 7, 2018

Gold price has broken out of the bearish channel, but remains below the Ichimoku cloud resistance in the 4 hour chart. Trend remains bearish as long as the price is below $1,320. On a break above $1,320, we will have short-term higher highs and higher lows. Combined with the bullish divergence in the RSI, we remain short-term bullish.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Upward sloping blue line -bullish divergence

Gold price has short-term support at $1,301. Resistance is at $1,320 and next at $1,330. I expect Gold to start a new upward move from around the $1,300-$1,310 area as we have been saying for the last few weeks. So now we are bullish.

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Trading plan for 07/05/2018

The overnight Asian session was calm with little currency moves. The AUD loses the most, even in spite of good business moods. The stock market is slightly positive. WTI goes over 70 USD.

On Monday 7th of May, there is a bank holiday in the UK, so the volatility may remain low. The event calendar is light in the important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on German Factory Orders data, CPI data from Switzerland and Sentix Investor Confidence data from Eurozone.

AUD/USD analysis for 07/05/2018:

AUD is the weakest on Monday and AUD/USD goes down to 0.7520. The market completely ignored data from the NAB institute, which pointed to the best business conditions since the start of research in 1997. The index rose in April to 21 out of 14. The business confidence indicator also increased - to 10 out of 7.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The main trend in this time frame is down, but the market conditions are now extremely oversold, so some kind of a corrective pull-back is being expected. So far the bounce was not too strong and a local high was made at the level of 0.7560 and the market looks locked in a horizontal zone between the levels of 0.7490 - 0.7560. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of 0.7578 - 0.7589 and only if this level is clearly violated, then the short-term bias will change to more bullish.

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Burning forecast 05/07/2018

Burning forecast 05/07/2018

EURUSD: Trade for a breakout range.

A narrow range was formed.

On a new week, few important news - the main news - inflation in the US on Thursday.

Waiting for an exit from the range.

Buy from 1.2035, stop at 1.1990, profit at1.2135.

Sell 1.1910, stop at 1.1955, the profit at 1.1810.

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The Bank of England faces a difficult decision

Eurozone

The completed week did not bring the euro a single reason to resume growth. Preliminary data on consumer inflation in April were noticeably worse than expected, retail sales growth slowed to 0.8% year-on-year in March, and business activity, according to Markit estimates, is slowing across the entire spectrum of the economy. In the service sector, the PMI index declined in April from 55.0 points to 55.7 points, a marked decrease in activity is observed in Germany.

The yield spread steadily grows in favor of the dollar, and if we compare its dynamics with the EURUSD rate, we can clearly see the potential for a drop down to 1.05 by the end of this year.

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The Fed slightly changed the inflation estimate in its commentary following the recent meeting of the FOMC and, clearly, expects its acceleration, it allows confidently to expect at least two more rate increases this year, while official representatives of the ECB carefully push back the first increase for the second half of 2019. And they link this move with the start with the complete completion of the asset repurchase program, which, incidentally, does not have a clear timeframe.

The coming week is unlikely to allow the euro to stop its decline. The week will be poor on macroeconomic reports, as nothing deserves attention except the publication of reports on industrial production and trade balance of Germany on Tuesday, and the markets will focus on general macroeconomic trends than on intra-European factors. Rising oil prices will put pressure on production growth rates and worsen the foreign trade balance, the zero result of trade talks between the US and China will increase global demand for the dollar.

The euro was fixed below the level of the 200-day average and below the psychological mark of 1.20, in the bear perspective, the bear will push the price to support level of 1.1710.

United Kingdom

The index of business activity in the services sector is key to understanding trends in the British economy. In April it showed 52.8p - it is slightly higher than 51.7p a month earlier, but at the same time worse than expectations. The general trend of the second half of 2014 is not in doubt:

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During a meeting on Thursday, the Bank of England will assess whether the weakness in the country's economy is temporary or has deeper reasons. Until recently, the markets were confident that at the May meeting the regulator would raise the rate based on confidence in a long-term recovery, but recent data indicate that there may not be an increase.

GDP growth slowed to 1.2%, business activity declined in all sectors, the consumer confidence index was firmly entrenched in negative territory, and the core inflation in March fell to 2.3%, and this is the annual minimum. There are no signs of "a sure recovery," the forecasts for the rate increase have already seriously shaken after the recent comments of BOE Governor Mark Carney.

The pound tested the level of 1.35, and this is in view of the fact that while the chances of raising rates remain quite high. If the Bank of England refrains from this step, then the pound may decrease as a reaction up to 1.30, as there will be no reasons for growth. The rate increase will have a temporary effect, and the decline will continue, but more smoothly, in this case a corrective growth up to 1.3705 is possible, followed by a downward turn.

Oil

Oil continues to grow strongly against the backdrop of geopolitical risks associated with potential tightening of US sanctions against Iran. Achieving a level of $ 75 bpd, which until recently was considered absolutely satisfactory to all participants in the OPEC + deal, as risks show intermediate results, is now not an ultimate goal. Appetite comes with consumption, and more voices that advocate a balance of 80-85 dollars per barrel, as it turned out that many oil-producing countries can not balance themselves even at this price level.

The situation around Iran should get affirmation before May 12, before this time quotes will be highly likely to continue growing.

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