BITCOIN Analysis for April 9, 2018

Bitcoin has continued its bearish pressure below $7,000 which is expected to proceed much lower towards $5,000-5,500 area in the coming days. The bearish pressure is still not that impulsive as expected which does indicate the weakening of bears along the process. There have been certain statements about Bitcoin where it is expected to stay and the drastic fall from $20,000 price area to $7,000 was not the worst scenario. The Billionaire trader, George Soros has already taken interest in the Crypto-trading which does also explain the reliability of the system as per expert opinion. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to proceed lower towards $5,500 support area in the coming days before we see any bullish intervention along the way. As the price remains above $5,000 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for April 9, 2018

USDJPY is currently residing at the edge of 107.50 area despite having worse economic report on the USD side recently. As of the recent high impact economic reports published on Friday, Non-Farm Employment Change report was published with a decrease to 103k from the previous figure of 326k which was a drastic fall from a significant figure and Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1% which was expected to decrease to 4.0%. Despite having such worse economic reports, USD sustained the momentum over JPY and maintained the bullish pressure in the market. Today JPY Current Account report was published with decrease to 1.02T from the previous figure of 2.02T which was expected to be at 1.39T, Consumer Confidence report was published unchanged at 44.3 which was expected to increase to 44.6 and Economy Watchers Sentiment report was published with an increase to 48.9 from the previous figure of 48.6 which was expected to decrease to 48.1. On the other hand, today there is no USD economic report or event to be held but ahead of the CPI report this week, USD is expected to maintain the momentum which is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.2%, today there is no economic report to be published for which today USD is expected to be quite weak in nature. Tomorrow USD PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%, Core PPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% and Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to show decrease to 0.8% from the previous value of 1.1%. As of the current scenario, the pair is expected to be quite volatile this week, having USD having dovish expectation for the upcoming economic reports whereas JPY is already struggling with the weak economic results. To sum up, USD is expected to have an upper hand over JPY if the economic reports results better than the expectations in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite indecisive and volatile below 107.30-50 area from where it is expected to push lower towards 105.50-106.00 support area in order to push higher in the coming days. The dynamic level of 20 EMA has been breached recently with a daily close for which the market sentiment is currently being observed on the way of shifting itself. A daily close above 107.50 will lead to further impulsive pressure in the coming days. As the price remains above 105.50, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 8, 2018

EUR/JPY

This cross is bearish in the long term, and rather neutral in the short term. Another reality is that the market condition is currently choppy, but that might come to an end when a rally occurs in the market. There is a strong likelihood of a rally here, owing to a bullish expectation on JPY pairs for this week.

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The supply zones at 131.50, 132.00 and 132.50 could be reached when a bullish movement begins. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and that would become more important as price goes further northwards.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 8, 2018

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is bearish in the long term, and bullish in the short term. In the short term, price gained 180 pips from the low of last week, reaching the supply level at 107.50. Then there was a slight bearish correction in the market, which would eventually turn out to be an opportunity to buy long at better prices. A rally is very likely this week, which would push price upwards by 200 pips.

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This movement would be strong enough to override the long-term bearishness in the market. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and thus, price is expected to go further upwards, reaching other supply levels at 107.50 and 108.00.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 8, 2018

USD/CHF

The pair remains bullish in the short term (and its fate is largely subject to whatever happens to EURUSD). Price went upwards last week, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9650, and then getting corrected lower. The short-term bullishness will be rendered ineffectual only when price goes below the support level at 0.9500.

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On the other hand, a movement above the resistance level at 0.9700 will result in a stronger bullish bias on the market. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and thus, price is expected to go further upwards, irrespective of temporary pullbacks along the way.

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Global macro overview for 09/04/2018

The beginning of the new trading week on global commodity markets does not bring a significant change in the quotations of contracts for key raw materials. However, the threat of escalation of the trade war on the China-US line still causes caution on the part of investors.

Oil prices fell on Friday, as US President Donald Trump threatened to impose further tariffs on China, which revived the fear of a trade war between the two countries. Trump announced on Thursday that he recommended officials to consider imposing further tariffs on Chinese goods worth up to 100 billion dollars. Moreover, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported that oil reserves in SUAs dropped 4.6 million barrels last week, while analysts expected their growth to be small. The prices are also theoretically supported by the agreement of OPEC and other producers on limiting the extraction. Saudi Arabia, who is the OPEC leader, assessed that the agreement should be extended in some form. A similar opinion was expressed by the Minister of Oil Qatar.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The first trading hours of Monday bring a slight increase in the prices of WTI contracts, which slightly correct the strong declines from Friday. Nevertheless, the bulls were not strong enough to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 62.36, despite oversold market conditions and visible bullish divergence between the price and momentum indicator. In a case of a further drop, the next technical support is seen at the level of 61.36.

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Global macro overview for 09/04/2018

In general, the currency market has not moved much since Friday because, in the simplest terms, there is not much going on right now. The US labor market report confirmed three things. First, weather fluctuations disturbed employment statistics - which in February boosted the reading (326k), in March brought a correction (103k), but the average for the entire quarter showed a solid 202k gain. Secondly, wage growth accelerates slowly (from 2.6% y/y to 2.7%), not implying a rise in inflationary pressure. Thirdly, together, the data draws a picture of the economy in a state of sustainable recovery, which does not force the change of the strategy adopted by the Fed.

The current climate the US Dollar is still doing quite well. The risk is in check (the US-China dispute can always surprise), which is the worst impact on the main currency basket on AUD. In the local comparison, NZD uses this (less dependence on China, better conditions for tightening monetary policy in New Zealand). CAD is doing well too, especially after a very good job market report on Friday. In addition, the market upholds expectations for the imminent termination of the NAFTA agreement negotiations - Trump is playing a risky game with China, which may affect the support of the autumn elections to Congress and for this reason needs political success on another front.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. USD weakened after the NFP data, although it was more related to previously built expectations (for better result). Nevertheless, the bulls have managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 90.47 twice, but the price was pushed back down eventually. Currently, the market is trading close to the technical support at the level of 90.18 and in a case of a further deterioration, the next support is seen at the level of 89.63. The key technical resistance remains at the level of 90.98.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 09, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $7.101. The cryptocurrency space is rarely short of drama, but there's something about Twitter drama in particular that sets tongues wagging and crypto influencers crossing swords. The suspension of the popular @Bitcoin account on Sunday has sparked furious debate. In today's edition of Bitcoin in Brief, there's all that plus some ludicrous claims from new blockchains. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found potential double top formation in the background, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downwrad targets are set at the price of $6.790 and at the price of $6.470.

Support/Resistance

$7.101 – Intraday resistance

$6.872– Intraday support

$6.790 – Objective target 1

$6.470 – Objective target 2

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for April 9, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

In general, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 remains a significant supply zone to offer a valid SELL entry when any bullish pullback occurs.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7200 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 9, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 28.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains bearish below the price levels of 1.2400 unless obvious daily bullish support is offered around the price level of 1.2200.

The bullish scenario is considered a low probability after the recent bearish breakdown of 1.2300 took place on April 3.

Moreover, the depicted Multiple-Top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis.

Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 09, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.4117. Anyway, according to the 15M time – frame, I found a hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a fake breakout of yesterday's high, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.4050 and at the price of 1.3985.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4137

R2: 1.4182

R3: 1.4260

Support levels:

S1: 1.4015

S2: 1.3940

S3: 1.3890

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for April 09, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2290. Anyway, according to the 15M time – frame, I found a hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found potential end of ABC upward correction in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2253 and at the price of 1.2220.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2310

R2: 1.2338

R3: 1.2385

Support levels:

S1: 1.2234

S2: 1.2185

S3: 1.2160

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 09, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.4060. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.4024 (the level of 1.4024 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.4108. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.4066 followed by 1.4024, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.4110. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.4066 and 1.4168; for that we expect a range of 102 pips (1.4168 - 1.4066). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.4108, which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100) and (50), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.4108, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.4168to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3972.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 9, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains on Friday after being dominated by the bears leading the price to reside below 1.2260 area. The downbeat NFP and Unemployment Rate helped EUR to gain certain momentum over USD that is currently expected to continue further in the coming days. Currently, the ECB is thinking about tapering its massive monetary stimulus in the coming months. Besides, upcoming economic reports will play a big role in the process. Today, German Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to 19.2B from the previous figure of 21.5B which was expected to increase to 23.1B. The worse US economic report injected some volatility in the market but EUR was quite successful to sustain its gains. This indicates further bullish pressure in the market. This week, ECB President Draghi is going to speak ahead of the ECB Monetary Meeting Accounts that is likely to inject more volatility in the market as the policymaker is expected to reveal some information about further pland of the ECB. On the USD side, after being hit by the worse economic reports recently, the US currency is now expected to lose some grounds against EUR in the coming days. Ahead of the Consumer Price Index report later this week which is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.2%. The economic calendar lacks economic reports today, so USD is expected to be quite weak in nature. Tomorrow, US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%, Core PPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, and Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to show a decrease to 0.8% from the previous value of 1.1%. As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to have an upper hand over USD as USD is affected by sour expectation for the nearest statistics that is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the pair for the coming days of the week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.2260 price area with a recent retest off the level which is currently expected to push the price higher towards 1.2350 and later towards 1.2450-1.25 price area in the coming days. The volatility still exists in the market but certain bullish pressure with an engulfing on Friday was quite remarkable which is sufficient evidence for the bulls to proceed further with gains higher. As the price remains above 1.2260 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 09, 2018

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Overview:

Last week, the EUR/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 1.2316 towards 1.2216. Now, the price is set at 1.2278. On the H1 chart, the resistance of EUR/USD pair is seen at the level of 1.2316 and 1.2377. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.2316 and 1.2216 in coming hours. Moreover, the price spot of 1.2316 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below 1.2316, sell below 1.2316 with the first target at 1.2216 in order to test yesterday's bottom. Additionally, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2216, the market will decline further to 1.2186 and 1.2155 in order to test the weekly support 2 and 3. Also, it should be noticed that the minor resistance 1 is seen at the level of 1.2278 which coincides the daily pivot point.

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Trading plan for 09/04/2018:

Tensions between the US and China do not disappear, though without much impact on asset prices. The currency market has little excitement at the start of the week. The main crosses hold the ranges of fluctuations from Friday. EUR / USD stuck close to 1.2280, USD / JPY is staying just under 107. Only NZD / USD is growing since the beginning of the session and attacks 0.73. The Asian stock market is growing despite the terrible pronunciation of Friday's session on Wall Street.

On Monday 9th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Halifax HPI data from the UK, Sentix Investor Confidence data from the Eurozone and the Canadain Housing Starts and BOC Business Outlook Survey.

EUR/USD analysis for 09/04/2018:

During the weekend, President Trump wrote on Twitter that he expects China to release its trade barriers, "because this is the right thing to do." But Peter Navarro, director of the Bureau of Trade Policy in the White House, said that although tariffs on China are serious, they are also negotiating tactics.

Friday's speech of Fed chairman J. Powell was consistent with the Fed's previous remittance regarding wages and inflation, so the currency market showed almost no reaction. Powell said the wage growth rate remains moderate, though it has accelerated. He added that inflation should clearly accelerate in the spring. The head of the San Francisco Fed branch, J. Williams, said he sees three or four hikes this year. He added that customs policy "for now" does not pose a greater threat, but open trade wars may have "quite negative repercussions."

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken out of the Falling Wedge pattern, but the rally was stopped at the level of 1.2290 as the momentum indicator is still under the fifty level. In a case of a further breakout, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2346. and the immediate support is seen at the level of 1.2220.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 9, 2018

The Dollar index has broken above the trend line resistance and is now back testing it. Price remains above the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud and this is a bullish sign. If the price breaks back below the broken resistance trend line and below the cloud, we will have a false break out and change in short-term trend back to bearish, putting the 89-88.30 support area in danger.

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On a weekly basis, the price action shows us that buyers keep supporting the Dollar in any pull back towards 90. The price remains above the weekly tankan-sen. As long as we are above it we have chances of challenging the weekly kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at 91.70.

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