Overview of EUR/USD on September 4th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Business activity indices in the service

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d6f41ba9d5ab.png

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction-down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction-down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -53.9173

The EUR/USD currency pair began to adjust after all due to weak indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the United States. However, there are still three working days until the end of the week, which will be filled with various macroeconomic reports and events, as we wrote here. Thus, the main question is: will the fundamental background support the euro this week, and will it be able to significantly adjust against the dollar, or will it end quickly and uninterestingly? On Wednesday, September 4, it is planned to publish the composite index of business activity for the eurozone and the index of business activity in the service sector. Both indices have positive forecasts, that is, above the level of 50.0, so another recession in the eurozone is not expected today. A little earlier, similar indices for Germany will be released, which also does not imply the formation of a recession in the service sector. And a little later, retail sales for the European Union for July will come out, where traders may be disappointed, as forecasts predict a decrease of this indicator by 0.6% in monthly terms.

At the American trading session, traders will not receive any important news, only in the late afternoon, a "Beige book" will be published, which is unlikely to cause at least some reaction of traders. Thus, all the most interesting things will happen at the European session, as during it there will be a speech by Christine Lagarde, the future head of the ECB, which was originally supposed to take place yesterday. We have already said that after Friday's speech, Lagarde will closely monitor any of her interviews and speeches, as the future head of the ECB did not wait for her official inauguration and began to share her plans for monetary policy during the reign of Mario Draghi.

Well, the technical picture of the euro/dollar pair implies a correction until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns back down. Honestly, it's hard to imagine the euro above the moving average line. Traders are very reluctant to buy EU currencies (if at all). News from the States this week should be a failure for the euro to form an upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0956

S2 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0986

R2 – 1.1017

R3 – 1.1047

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair started an upward correction. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for its completion, that is, the price rebound from the moving or the Heiken Ashi indicator turning down, and then resuming sales of the pair with targets at 1.0956 and 1.0925. Long positions are not yet relevant.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast for EUR / USD from 09/04/2019 and trading recommendation

The single European currency, at least until the opening of the American session, continued to confidently lose its position. The reason for this was, in the form of data on producer prices, the growth rate of which slowed down from 0.7% to 0.2%. Well, since producer prices refuse to increase, then inflation does not have to accelerate. Thus, the European Central Bank clearly has enough reasons to find ways to mitigate monetary policy. Moreover, there is not a zero probability that this will happen in the next two months, that is, exactly before Christine Lagarde succession to the post of head of the European Central Bank. Mario Draghi can throw such a similar trick as his farewell chord.

analytics5d6f5da4e3a76.png

However, lately, the single European currency has been so oversold that at least some reason for local correction was necessary, and this was the cause of the American statistics. On the one hand, the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Markit showed its decline, but not from 50.4 to 49.9, but to 50.3, which by the way, greatly casts doubt on all shouts about the impending recession. Therefore, grabbing onto this one didn't succeed. On the other hand, the ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector came to the rescue, showing a decrease from 51.2 to 49.1. There was no limit to the joy of market participants, and they enthusiastically staged a sale of portraits of the dead American presidents.

The dynamics of the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector from Markit:

analytics5d6f5dba6d539.png

However, fundamentally, the situation on the market does not change. The European Central Bank is clearly looking for ways to ease monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to make hasty decisions. So for now, everything contributes to the further strengthening of the dollar. Today, it is worth paying close attention to data on retail sales in Europe. The growth rate of which may slow down from 2.6% to 2.0%. Meanwhile, against the background of a slowdown in producer price growth, and steadily low inflation, a slowdown in retail sales clearly indicates a decrease in the profit of European companies, which means that the attractiveness of the single European currency will continue to decline.

Dynamics of retail sales in Europe:

analytics5d6f5dce29273.png

The pair EUR / USD, forming an inertial movement, was able not only to overcome a number of important values on its way, but also the quote was firmly consolidated below the psychological level of 1.1000. Considering everything that happens in general terms, we see that the downward trend continued its formation reaching the level of 1.0926, where, against the background of local overheating of the American currency, we felt a periodic support, forming a technical correction as a result.

It is likely to assume that the correction move will not last as long as many would like, and already within the range of 1.0990-1.1000, it is possible to expect a stop with the next return of short positions to the market.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

  • We consider long positions in terms of forming an oblong correction, but in this case, a clear fixation of the price above the level of 1.1000 is necessary.
  • We consider short positions in terms of restoring the main move, where if the price is fixed lower than 1.0960, it is possible to consider the move to 1.0930.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators on the minute intervals signal the current correction, which cannot be said about intraday intervals where there is a characteristic uncertainty. Long-term periods, in turn, maintain a downward interest, reflecting the general market background.

analytics5d6f5ddf2243c.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 4, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the continuation of the upward movement with the target of 1.1004 is possible - a pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line).

analytics5d6f5b5e29283.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the upward movement will continue.

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement, with the first target of 1.0927 - a lower fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 4. The first round for Brexit opponents without an agreement, but Boris

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, the pound rose sharply after it became known that parliamentarians voted to amend the Brexit agenda, which opens the possibility of approving a bill that does not allow the UK to leave the EU without an agreement. At the moment, buyers are focused on breaking the resistance of 1.2112, which will lead to the continuation of the upward correction of the pound to the highs of 1.2161 and 1.2219, where I recommend fixing the profit. However, there will be a major increase only if the above-mentioned bill is passed today, which will be voted on in the afternoon. In the case of GBP/USD decline, which is also possible, you can count on long positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2060, or a rebound from a larger level of 1.2019.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The sellers need a victory for Boris Johnson, who will also put the general election to a vote today. This will be done to block the opposition's attempt to pass through Parliament a bill on the inadmissibility of Brexit without an agreement. If Johnson wins, the pressure on the pound will increase, and the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2112 will be the first signal for opening short positions, the purpose of which will be the lows of 1.2060 and 1.2019, where I recommend taking the profit. In the scenario of the continued growth of the pound in the first half of the day, it is best to return to short positions after updating the maximum of 1.2161 or to rebound from the larger resistance of 1.2219.

Signals of indicators:

Moving Averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a possible continuation of the pound's growth.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of the pound growth, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2130 will limit the upward potential. The downward movement of the pound will be stopped by the lower border at 1.2025.

analytics5d6f55a31cff2.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 4. The decline in production activity in the United States hit the positions

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The report on a sharp decline in activity in the US manufacturing sector led to a fall in the dollar and the strengthening of the euro in the afternoon. At the moment, buyers are focused on the breakdown of the resistance of 1.0982, which may occur in the morning after the PMI data for the eurozone services sector. Fixation above the resistance level of 1.0982 will open a direct road to the highs in the area of 1.1010 and 1.1048, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of the euro decline, which may occur after the report on the reduction of retail sales, it is best to consider long positions after the support update of 1.0955, on a false breakdown, or a rebound from a minimum of 1.0927.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears will continue to rely on weak reports on the eurozone, and especially on a reduction in retail sales, which will form a false breakdown of the resistance of 1.0982. This will be the first signal to open short positions that will return EUR/USD to the area of lows of 1.0955 and 1.0927, where I recommend taking the profits. In a scenario of further upward correction and a breakthrough of the resistance of 1.0982, it is best to return to sales only after updating the maximum of 1.1010 or to rebound from a larger level of 1.1048.

Signals of indicators:

Moving Averages

Trading just above 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a possible continuation of the upward correction of the euro.

Bollinger Bands

The break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.0985 will lead to further growth of the euro, while the lower limit in the area of 1.0935 will support the pair in case of a decline in the first half of the day.

analytics5d6f533f8cfd5.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for September 4. The euro and the pound unexpectedly received support on Wednesday.

EUR / USD

analytics5d6f540173f78.png

Tuesday, September 3, ended for the EUR / USD pair with an increase of 5 basis points, although the instrument went down by 40-50 bp during the day. Thus, there was reason to assume the beginning of building a correctional internal wave of 3, 3, or 4, 3 waves. One way or another, quotes can now move away from previously reached minimums. On the other hand, the news background for the euro-dollar pair on Tuesday was unexpectedly positive. The American index of business activity in the ISM manufacturing sector fell below 50.0 and amounted to 49.1 in August. Such a low value indicates a decline in the US industrial sector, the same as it is now fixed in the European Union. This news disappointed the markets very much and contributed to the appreciation of the euro.

analytics5d6f541aab26c.png

Today I draw attention to the index of business activity in the services sector of the European Union, from which, however, no one expects dramatic changes.

analytics5d6f542e61f42.png

As well as the change in the volume of retail sales in the European Union in July, where it is expected to slow down to 2.0% y / y. There will be no important economic reports in the US today. Thus, if reports from the EU will not have real values much worse than the expectations of the market, the corrective upward wave will continue to build.

Purchase goals:

1.1248 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0893 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.0807 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build a bearish wave, which is now interpreted as 3, in 3. I recommend selling the pair with targets near the calculated levels of 1.0893 and 1.0807, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci , MACD signal "down".

GBP / USD

analytics5d6f54417093b.png

On September 3, the GBP / USD pair gained about 15 basis points. Although during the day, as well as the euro, it fell much lower than the closing price of the day. Moreover, the pound-dollar pair managed to break through the minimum of the alleged wave e. But now, this breakdown is interpreted as false, and the instrument retains the chances of building an upward wave with targets located above the 23 figure. The news background for the pound, in turn, unexpectedly changed to positive. The first working session after the holidays took place in the British Parliament yesterday and it was decided to put to the vote the issue of the inadmissibility of Brexit without a deal with the European Union. In the near future, most likely today, the deputies will vote for this bill and it is likely to be adopted. It will be a huge "stick in the wheel" of Boris Johnson's tough Brexit, who has already managed to threaten the deputies with new parliamentary elections if they interfere with his implementation of Brexit on October 31. However, the forex market sees this as positive news for the pound, since the hard Brexit is clearly interpreted as a negative factor for the British currency. The further it is from sales, the better for the pound.

analytics5d6f54592b423.png

Today, I do not expect anything discouraging and unexpected from the index of business activity in the UK services sector. The forecast is 51.0 in August.

Sales goals:

1.2016 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2306 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2401 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The downward trend section is still considered completed. Thus, it is now expected to build an ascending wave with the first goals located near the calculated levels of 1.2306 and 1.2401, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci. You can buy a pound, but I do not recommend doing it in large volumes.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 04/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Dutch Central Bank today announced that it will start regulating companies offering cryptocurrency services from January 10, 2020.

According to financial media, De Nederlandsche Bank explained that relevant companies in this sector must register with the institution if they want to continue their activities.

"Specifically, companies offering cryptocurrency and regular money exchange services as well as cryptocurrency wallet providers must register with De Nederlandsche Bank"- we read in the official statement of the bank.

Dutch ministers urged the government of the country to regulate cryptocurrencies and some cash payments because of concerns about money laundering. In January, Dutch Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra received an official recommendation from the Dutch Financial Markets Authority and De Nederlandsche Bank that a cryptocurrency service licensing system should be introduced.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair is still trading below the short-term descending trendline, so only an impulsive move above the trendline can give a signal for the market participants to resume the uptrend on this pair. The breakout level would be around the level of $182.00 which is a technical resistance as well. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading below the trendline. If, however, the level of $182.00 is clearly violated, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $187.04 and the uptrend is resumed then.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $214.26

WR2 - $203.46

WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24

WS1 - $152.37

WS2 - $142.84

WS3 - $121.31

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

analytics5d6f52e4b75bf.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 04/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The German version of the world-known fast food chain Burger King now accepts payments in Bitcoins on the website with deliveries and in the mobile application.

Bitcoin has recently appeared among payment options on the official German Burger King website and in its mobile application. It is not clear, however, whether Bitcoin is also accepted in physical Burger King restaurants in Germany, which have over 600 locations in this country.

According to the Crunchbase information website, Burger King currently operates in over 13,000 locations, serving over 11 million visitors daily in 98 countries around the world. The site also estimates the annual revenue of the fast-food giant will be $ 1.7 billion.

In the summer of 2017, Russian Burger King announced that it will start accepting payments in Bitcoins, and then introduced its own virtual currency Whoppercoin at the end of August. Also in 2017, Bitcoin was first accepted by another Burger King in Arnhem, a city in the Netherlands.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $10,733 after the technical resistance at the level of $10,222 has been violated. The move-up is the biggest in terms of range so far, so it is quite possible that this is the wave (1) of the overall impulsive cycle up. Moreover, it means, the corrective cycle in wave 2 had been completed at the level of $9,231 and now the market resumes the uptrend. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $9,231 is not clearly violated. Anyway, now is time for a correction and the levels for the corrective pull-back are $10,222, $10,164, $9,999 and $9,820.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,528

WR2 - $11,079

WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753

WS1 - $8,875

WS2 - $8,358

WS3 - $7,589

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

analytics5d6f508b05a72.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 04/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has bounced significantly from the oversold market conditions after the level of 1.1957 has been hit. The bulls have managed to lift the prices towards the level of 1.2109, but it might not be the end of the correction. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2135 and then on 1.2157 - 1.2175 zone. The momentum is now at the neutral level, so there is some sort of support for the bulls from this indicator as well, at least for the short-term period. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2411

WR2 - 1.2356

WR1 - 1.2237

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.2187

WS1 - 1.2067

WS2 - 1.2021

WS3 - 1.1902

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

analytics5d6f4d2bdbc06.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the low at the level of 1.0926, broke above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0964 and made a local high at the level of 1.0979. The momentum is off the negative area and the stochastic is off the oversold territory. The next target for the local pull-back or correction is seen at the level of 1.0997. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1285

WR2 - 1.1224

WR1 - 1.1084

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025

WS1 - 1.0886

WS2 - 1.0818

WS3 - 1.0681

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.

analytics5d6f4bc31783f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Boris Johnson lost the first fight: the main battle will take place today

The British currency slumped to a 34-year low against the dollar yesterday, that is, to the level of 1.1958. The pair was in this price area back in January 2017 (when Theresa May's first attempt to approve the deal in Parliament failed), but then the low was set at 1.1986. This time, the GBP/USD bears tried to gain a foothold in the 19th figure, however, the fundamental background for the pair is now very volatile, so the price returned to its previous positions in the second half of Monday, and more precisely - to the boundaries of the 21st figure. But yesterday's price fluctuations were, so to speak, "practice," since key decisions in the House of Commons should be made today.

analytics5d6f4ce0b0e2f.jpg

By and large, political events unfold along a predicted trajectory. Many analysts were confident that MPs will not leave without proper reaction legal maneuvers Boris Johnson to block the work of the House of Commons. Although the prime minister himself denies the claims against him, almost all the deputies are confident that he is thus trying to paralyze the legislature in order to independently make decisions regarding the prospects of Brexit. His plan is obvious: Brussels must seriously take the threat of the chaotic Brexit in order to finally make concessions to London. And in order for this threat to be taken seriously, it's necessary "on all sails" to lead the country out of the bloc, imposing on Europeans the idea that the deal is necessary primarily for the European Union, and not Britain.

In other words, the prime minister is bluffing to a certain extent, but this "nerves game" is very risky, especially considering Brussels's rather tough stance on key issues of the deal (for example, back-stop). Therefore, the Parliament plays the role of a "stop-crane" in this situation, preventing catastrophic consequences of a dangerous political game. Although, according to Johnson, the House of Commons, by its liberal approach, only weakens London's position in the negotiation process - they say, why should Europeans make concessions if they are confident that the British side will either ask for another postponement, or ultimately agree to the proposed conditions ( or cancel Brexit by a new referendum)?

That is why, in his speech yesterday, Johnson unambiguously hinted: if the deputies will "put the wheels in motion,'' he will initiate early elections, which (most likely) will take place on October 14th. Given the latest opinion polls, not all political forces represented in the current convocation of the House of Commons are eager to go to the re-election. In theory, this threat to the head of government should act on MPs accordingly. But contrary to the arguments voiced, it can be assumed that today, the deputy corps will still block the "hard" Brexit on October 31. We are talking about a bill that was registered yesterday, which is designed to prevent Britain from leaving the European Union without a deal.

The document, in particular, assumes that members of the British government are obliged to take "all possible actions" to reach a new agreement with the European Union at a meeting of the European Council on October 18. If the parties fail to reach a compromise, then the prime minister has the right to send a request to the House of Commons on October 19 about the possibility of leaving the European Union without a deal. This paragraph of the bill suggests that a hard Brexit will be possible only with the approval of the deputies of the British Parliament. Also, the head of government will be obliged to ask the European Union to prolong the negotiation process for three months, that is, until January 31, 2020, or to agree to any date proposed by Brussels.

Actually, the whole essence of the bill is contained in one paragraph. Parliament prohibits the implementation of a harsh scenario without the permission of lawmakers. All other norms of the bill are formal in nature, since in such conditions Brussels will not agree to revise the text of the deal, thereby "agreeing in absentia" to the extension of the negotiation process.

And although many analysts predicted the appearance of such a bill, until yesterday, it was not clear whether it would be supported by deputies or not, because the opposition does not have a majority, so they have to rely on Conservatives as well. But yesterday's events showed that the Parliament is quite determined.

Firstly, the deputies "took away" the right to determine the agenda from the Cabinet of Ministers, which happens quite rarely in the walls of the House of Commons. Secondly, last night, they put on the agenda the above bill - 328 deputies voted for it, 321 against it. The advantage, though not devastating, but significant. Thirdly, a momentous event occurred yesterday - prominent Conservative deputy Philip Lee took the side of liberal democrats. This means that the prime minister no longer has a "working majority" in the House of Commons. Lee explained his action by saying that he could not serve the interests of the British in the ranks of the Conservatives. However, many Conservatives are also ready to support opposition initiatives without leaving the party ranks. According to preliminary data, from 20 to 40 Tories intend to vote against hard Brexit. The threats of expulsion from the Conservative Party did not affect them.

analytics5d6f4cf42e706.jpg

Thus, today (or in the coming days) the Parliament is likely to block the implementation of the hard scenario, and in turn, Boris Johnson initiates early elections to be held. However, not everything is so simple in this matter. The fact is that to permit the holding of general re-elections, two-thirds of the votes in the House of Commons are needed. Deputies fear that having satisfied this request, the Cabinet may postpone the election date to any other date after October 31. Therefore, many deputies have already expressed an ultimatum - at first the House of Commons passes a law blocking a hard Brexit, and then proceeds to the issue of early re-election. At the same time, Johnson can initiate a vote of confidence in the government (in this case only half of the votes of the parliament are needed) - but in this case, the prime minister risks making a "blank shot".

In other words, the coming days for the British currency will be saturated. Judging by the preliminary moods of the deputies, the upcoming events will support the pound. In such conditions, the GBP/USD pair can reach 1.2290 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) in the short term - the pair has not risen above this resistance level since the end of July.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 04, 2019

analytics5d6f2bc93d1b7.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI. The US will also publish the economic data such as Beige Book, Wards Total Vehicle Sales, and Trade Balance, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1025. Strong Resistance: 1.1019. Original Resistance: 1.1008. Inner Sell Area: 1.0997. Target Inner Area: 1.0972. Inner Buy Area: 1.0947. Original Support: 1.0936. Strong Support: 1.0925. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0919. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 04, 2019

analytics5d6f2b561c174.jpg

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, but the US will publish some economic data such as Beige Book, Wards Total Vehicle Sales, and Trade Balance. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 106.53. Resistance. 2: 106.31. Resistance. 1: 106.11. Support. 1: 105.86. Support. 2: 105.65. Support. 3: 105.44. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 4, 2019

EUR/USD

In the morning, the euro continued to decline in previous days, falling by 40 points in the evening, but with the release of disappointing PMI turned up and closed the day in positive territory by 6 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the ISM estimate for August fell from 51.2 to 49.1. At the same time, construction costs in July increased by only 0.1% against the forecast of 0.3%. Also, two Fed officials, James Bullard and Eric Rosengren, immediately announced the desired "aggressive" (immediately by 0.5%) preventive lowering of the rate before the impact of the global crisis on the United States.

analytics5d6f437d7491d.png

Convergence began to form on the daily chart on the Marlin oscillator, this is a sign of a deep correction, as an option, by 1.1160 - to the magnetic point of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 110.0%, the price channel line and the MACD indicator line. But first, the price needs to gain a foothold over the low of August 1, 1.1027.

analytics5d6f4393000a7.png

On the four-hour chart, the level of 1.1027 coincides with the resistance of the MACD line. It is possible that the price will not be able to overcome this resistance. In this case, convergence on daily will not form and the Marlin signal line will resume decline.

So, we are waiting for the development of the current neutral situation. The euro's decline against yesterday's low again opens the target of 1.0840 - the area of the Fibonacci level of 161.8% and the price channel line marked on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on September 4, 2019

USD / JPY pair

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen, as a protective asset against European political upheaval, strengthened by 27 points. It reflects the price from the resistance of the downward price channel line on the daily chart. Although, the fall of the pair was relatively small, which nevertheless indicates the strength of the mood for shopping. The dollar has strong positions for the development of further growth relative to the yen, considering the episodic nature of political European events - such as the difficulties and their decisions in Italy's power structures, the impulses of the British prime minister to urgently leave the EU, informational stuff about the imminent reduction of the ECB rate, etc.

analytics5d6f3bcc028f7.png

However, the current situation is uncertain. The probability of growth and fall is the same. For growth, the price needs to overcome the resistance of the trend line at 106.30, as after 30 points another resistance awaits it in the form of the MACD line at 106.60. Above the price is waiting for the line of the rising price channel at 107.14.

analytics5d6f3be4db478.png

Yesterday, the price stopped in front of the support range on August 27-28 on the four-hour chart. The price is below the blue indicator line of MACD and the Marlin oscillator is in a downward position. Fixing the price under the support range below 105.60 may trigger a fall to the price channel line on a daily scale in the region of 104.70. We are waiting for the development of events.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 4, 2019

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the index of business activity in the UK construction sector in August showed a decrease from 45.3 to 45.0, the British pound continued to decline, puncturing the support of the embedded price channel line and the Fibonacci level of 271.0% on the daily chart. But in the evening there was news about the transition from the Conservative Party of Parliament MP Philip Lee (former Minister of Justice) to the Liberal Democrats, which deprived the ruling party of the majority in the House of Commons. Theoretically, the opposition had a chance to declare a vote of no confidence in the government before sending the Parliament forcibly to long vacations. The pound soared by 125 points, closing the day rising 17 points.

analytics5d6f40df544ff.png

Currently, on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator has reached the zone of positive values, the growth zone of the trend. Most likely, the growth will continue to the point of coincidence of the price channel line with the MACD line, to 1.2202.

analytics5d6f40f46d12f.png

On the four-hour chart, Marlin is also in the growth zone, the level of 1.2202 coincides with the MACD line. We are waiting for the price at this target level, after which it is possible to turn the price down (this is the main scenario). Or, until we receive a no less important political news, further growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for USD/JPY pair on 09/04/19

Yesterday, the pair reached 1/2 WCZ of 105.73-105.64, which allowed to stop the fall. Purchases opened from this zone must be kept up to the upper border of the flat, which is formed by the maximum of last week. Further growth will allow us to leave part of the purchases to the range of the average weekly move.

analytics5d6f3f52dcbf2.png

Working in the flat implies the search for entry points at the upper or lower limits of the range, however, we must bear in mind that the probability of continuing the upward impulse is higher.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's American session occurs below the 1/2 WCZ. This will open the way for a decline in the average course of the week. The probability of implementing this model is 30%, which makes it an auxiliary.

analytics5d6f3f6cbb364.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for Bitcoin on 09/04/19

At the end of last month, there was a move beyond the monthly control zone in August. This made it possible to work to return to its limits. The growth was so strong that Bitcoin will again return to around $10,000. Part of the purchases can be fixed and the rest must be transferred to break-even in case of growth to $12,000.

analytics5d6f3ae39cf0e.png

Bitcoin has been trading as part of a flat for a long time. The upper ranges can be considered prices above $12,000, and the bottom of accumulation is below $9,000.

Repeated purchases of bitcoin are possible in the case of a correction to the balance level. Today, the balance is at around $10,000, however, if growth continues, it will move in the wake of the price. The upper monthly short of September is an excellent goal for the next fixation of a long position.

analytics5d6f3afc1a2d9.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for USD/CHF pair on 09/04/19

Today's trading plan should take into account yesterday's weekly test. Keeping the price below the trading range of the European sessions for the last two days will allow us to talk about the continuation of the downward movement. The main goal of the correctional fall is 1/2 WCZ of 0.9819-0.9808.

analytics5d6f365a470b2.png

Downward trade should be oriented towards the next support. Part of the profit is required to be fixed during the test of 1/2 WCZ.

An alternative model will be developed in the event that the reverse absorption of yesterday's fall occurs. This will lead to the formation of a local accumulation zone and the continuation of the bullish momentum in the medium term. Purchases from current marks are not profitable. Therefore, a deeper decline in the pair is required.

analytics5d6f36745cc1b.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 4

Forecast for September 4:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

analytics5d6f0c41b1b81.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1025, 1.0980, 1.0960, 1.0922, 1.0897 and 1.0849. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure from August 26. At the moment, the price is in correction. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.0922 - 1.0897. Hence, there is a high probability of a reversal in the correction zone. The breakdown of the level of 1.0897 will be accompanied by an unstable movement towards a potential descending target - 1.0849.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.0960 - 1.0980. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1012. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 26, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.0982 Take profit: 1.1012

Sell: 1.0922 Take profit: 1.0902

analytics5d6f0c57e05ee.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2255, 1.2216, 1.2159, 1.2113, 1.2069, 1.2040, 1.1993, 1.1946 and 1.1884. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the top of September 3 in the correction of the downward cycle. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2113. In this case, the target is 1.2159, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2160 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2216. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2255. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2069 - 1.2040. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1993. This level is a key support for the upward potential. Its passage will allow us to expect further development of the downward trend. In this case, the first goal is 1.1946 .

The main trend is the descending structure of August 27, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2113 Take profit: 1.2157

Buy: 1.2161 Take profit: 1.2216

Sell: 1.2069 Take profit: 1.2040

Sell: 1.2038 Take profit: 1.1995

analytics5d6f0c57e05ee.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0025, 0.9980, 0.9958, 0.9920, 0.9877, 0.9856 and 0.9822. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of August 26. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9920. In this case, the target is 0.9958. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9958 - 0.9980. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0025. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 0.9877 - 0.9856. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 0.9822. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9920 Take profit: 0.9958

Buy : 0.9980 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9854 Take profit: 0.9822

analytics5d6f0c8b310f3.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 107.88, 107.14, 106.87, 106.52, 105.65, 105.37, 104.92 and 104.44. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.52. In this case, the target is 106.87. Price consolidation is near this level. The passage at the price of the noise range 106.87 - 107.14 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 107.88. Consolidation is near this level.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 105.65 - 105.37. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 104.92. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 104.44. Consolidation is near this level.

The main trend: the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.52 Take profit: 106.85

Buy : 107.15 Take profit: 107.88

Sell: 105.35 Take profit: 104.94

Sell: 104.90 Take profit: 104.46

analytics5d6f0ca750e1b.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3456, 1.3421, 1.3406, 1.3379, 1.3344, 1.3328 and 1.3299. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of August 27. The continuation of the development of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3379. In this case, the target is 1.3406. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3406 - 1.3421. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3456. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 1.3344 - 1.3328. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.3299. This level is a key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the rising structure of August 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3380 Take profit: 1.3404

Buy : 1.3422 Take profit: 1.3455

Sell: 1.3326 Take profit: 1.3300

analytics5d6f0cc523d54.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6821, 0.6791, 0.6781, 0.6768, 0.6751, 0.6742 and 0.6725. Here, the price forms a pronounced upward structure from September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6768. In this case, the target is 0.6781. Short-term upward movement is in the range of 0.6781 - 0.6791. The breakdown of the level of 0.6791 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.6821.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6751 - 0.6742. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6725. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6768 Take profit: 0.6780

Buy: 0.6792 Take profit: 0.6820

Sell : 0.6750 Take profit : 0.6742

Sell: 0.6740 Take profit: 0.6730

analytics5d6f0ce30294b.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 117.00, 116.79, 116.44, 116.19, 115.81, 115.59, 115.15 and 114.78. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the descending structure of August 26. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 115.81 - 115.59. In this case, the target is 115.15. Price consolidation is near this value and from here, a rollback to correction is also possible. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 114.78. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 116.19 - 116.44. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 116.79. The range of 116.79 - 117.00 is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 116.19 Take profit: 116.43

Buy: 116.45 Take profit: 116.79

Sell: 115.81 Take profit: 115.60

Sell: 115.57 Take profit: 115.15

analytics5d6f0d4667e1d.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 129.26, 128.70, 128.12, 126.48, 125.86, 124.95 and 124.50. Here, we determined the subsequent targets for the downward movement from the descending structure on August 23. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 126.48 - 125.86. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 124.95. Price consolidation is in the range of 124.95 - 124.50 and from here, we expect a key reversal to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 128.12 - 128.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 129.26. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.12 Take profit: 128.70

Buy: 128.72 Take profit: 129.26

Sell: 126.48 Take profit: 125.87

Sell: 125.83 Take profit: 124.95

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY vs GBP / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from September 04, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

Let me bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY and its cross-instruments EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY from September 04, 2019.

Minuette operational scale (H4 timeframe)

____________________

US dollar vs Japanese yen

On September 4, 2019, the development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (105.85 - 105.60 - 105.30) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The movement markings inside this channel are shown in the animated chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 106.000) of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it possible for the currency of the country of the rising sun to reach the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale fork - Minuette (105.850 - 105.550 - 105.300) and Minuette (105.750 - 105.200 - 104.650), as well as the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (104.650 - 104.400 - 104.100).

On the other hand, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 106.850) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of USD / JPY can be continued to the goals - the initial SSL Minuette line (107.490) - the UTL control line (107.950) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the USD / JPY movement, depending on the breakdown direction of the 1 / 2 Median Line Minuette channel mentioned above, are shown in the animated chart.

analytics5d6e804c1fd2c.jpg

Euro vs Japanese Yyen

On September 4, 2019, the development of the cross-instrument EUR / JPY movement will be determined by working out and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 116.300 (the initial line of SSL of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 115.900 (control line LTL Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the SSL Minuette start line (resistance level of 116.300) will direct the development of the movement of this cross-instrument to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (117.00 - 117.300 - 117.650), and if the upper boundary (117.650) of this channel breakdown, the upward movement of EUR / JPY may be continued to the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale fork (118.250 - 118.800 - 119.450) and Minuette (118.800 - 119.250 - 119.800).

In case of breakdown of the LTL control line (support level of 115.900) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the downward movement of EUR / JPY will continue to the warning lines - LWL38.2 (115.300) - LWL61.8 (114.650) - LWL100.0 (113.650) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the movement of EUR / JPY depending on the development of the boundaries of this range are presented in the animated chart.

analytics5d6e8069e4669.jpg

____________________

Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen

On September 4, 2019, the development of the cross-instrument movement GBP / JPY will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 128.400 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 127.550 (reaction line RL38.2 Minuette operational scale fork).

A combined breakdown of the resistance level of 128.400 and the UTL control line (resistance level of 128.650) of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the development of the movement of this cross-instrument in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (128.400 - 129.600 - 130.800) with the prospect that the price GBP / JPY reaches the lower boundary of ISL38 .2 (132.400) equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the RL38.2 reaction line (support level of 127.550) of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct the development of GBP / JPY movement towards the goals - the initial SSL Minuette line (127.000) - the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (126.200 - 125.400 - 124.500) with the prospect of reaching the upper boundaries of ISL38.2 (123.650) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the animated chart for the GBP / JPY movement options, depending on the breakdown direction of the above range.

analytics5d6e808ea69b2.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How autumn can inspire crypto traders and give confidence to the crypto market, Bitcoin (September 3)

The end of August was not the best period for cryptocurrency. So what are we waiting for in the new season, will Bitcoin grow?

I welcome you, crypto enthusiasts and crypto-hamsters, and a week has passed since our last review. So what has changed in the market? The remarkable $ 9800/10500 platform, to which many people paid attention, was pierced in the downward direction by a massive red candle, of course, and there was a foundation of information here. So, theories appeared that this platform and the subsequent descent were provoked by large players on the eve of the closing of futures on the CME exchange on August 30. The following theory, in principle, follows from the first, and it is associated with the celebration of Labor Day in the United States and Canada, September 2, where, according to this version, trading volumes could be reduced and operations began to close in advance. The extreme theory does not follow from the first two, here the idea is a little different, and so, it is called "Summer 2018".

Digest of bygone days:

For several days in a row, the media actively looted the topic of the national cryptocurrency of the PRC, that it was supposedly already ready and the People's Bank of China would present it on November 11th. The crypto-yuan will be distributed by large banks of the country, as well as Alibaba and Union Pay. The news is actually shocking, although information about the upcoming token has been around for quite some time. So, by the end of last week a rebuttal appeared, the financial regulator called all the rumors "inaccurate and speculative" regarding an early launch. BUT the fact that the work is ongoing and there is already a high degree of readiness of the cryptocurrency, confirms its representative Mu Changun. In any outcome, this news is sent to the crypto industry. The head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Jay Clayton, said that his agency is not going to amend the securities law for the blockchain industry, but it does not intend to impede its development. The ECB has published a new report on the crypto industry, in particular, there is an analysis of cryptocurrencies, the so-called stablecoin. In the report, the ECB divided stablecoins into four main groups and concluded that stablecoins need a more advanced management system so that they can become more popular. The report can be found here . In the United States, they are preparing to consider the proposal of the financial Integrity Network (FIN) consulting company regarding the regulation of cryptocurrencies in accordance with the bank secrecy law.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/CAD. The most promising cross of the week!

I present to you one more of my "workhorses" in the cross-rate segment - a pair of AUDCAD. This is a unique cross in its clear middle passages. I began to work with this tool thanks to my acquaintance with the caste of Moscow grid traders with a turnover of millions of dollars.

Good evening, dear traders

As promised, I bring to your attention one more of my "workhorses" in the cross-rate segment - a couple of AUDCAD. This is a unique cross in its clear middle passages. I began to work with this tool thanks to my acquaintance with the caste of Moscow grid traders with a turnover of millions of dollars. And this cross would not be their last place. Like NZDCHF, this cross has a certain peculiarity - any strong movement in the 700p range of 4 knows a rollback of at least half. And just right now AUDCAD He passed the value of the average recoilless value of 700p laid to him.

From the point of view of fundamental analysis for Australia this night - a decision on the interest rate of 4-30 Moscow time, and on Friday across Canada, a change in employment at 15-30. All these events will lead to increased volatility of a clearly overbought instrument, and we can count on correction from a fall of 100-200p by 4 characters. The closest resistance level behind which sellers are standing is ROUND level 0.9, and at least a false breakdown is most likely in these conditions. Also amid declining interest rates on the New Zealand dollar, Australia could also take that step. But our plan will not change. For this, it is necessary to place a limit purchase order at a minimum of the current year below the quote 0.8888 and take profit at the level of 0.9. Good luck in trading, and follow the rules of money management!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com