EUR / USD h1. Options for the development of the movement 03.12_10.12.2018. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minuette (h1)

Euro vs US Dollar

Previous overview from 11/27/2018 21:32 UTC + 3.

____________________

The development trend of the single European currency pair movement between December 3 to 10will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel borders ( 1.1305 <-> 1.1323 <-> 1.1340 ) of the Micro forks.

The marking of options for movement within the channel 1/2 ML Micro is presented in an animated graphic.

____________________

Prospects for the development of the upward movement (buy)

Breakdown of the resistance level 1.1340 (upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Micro ) -> variant of the upward movement of EUR / USD to the border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette ( 1.1370 <-> 1.1395 <-> 1.1425 ) with the prospect of reaching the lower limit of the ISL38.2 ( 1.1445 ) balance zone of the forks of an operational scale Minuette.

Details are shown in animated graphics.

____________________

Development Perspective of Downward Movement (sell)

Breakdown of the Support Level at 1.1305 (lower limit of 1/2 channel Median Line Micro ) will confirm further movement of EUR / USD pair to occur in the equilibrium zone ( 1.1310 <-> 1.1290 <-> 1.1267 ) of the Micro operational scale and if there is a breakdown of ISL61. 8 Micro ( 1.1267 ). Then, the downward movement of the single European currency can continue to the goals -> end Shiff Line Micro ( 1.1250 ) <-> minimum 1.1215 <-> FSL Micro end line ( 1.1200 ). Details.

We look at the animated graphics.

____________________

The review was compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

KYLrPwGveZx1jn3TbtCm8czQcA_DnsePs9wltSGS

Materials for the study of analysis ZUP & APL`s.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil market: the worst may be over. What to expect next?

Today, oil quotes have sharply rushed upward and played back, including the positive results of the G20 summit.

QsnsNldcZVWE76t5904DgWHMJNaTJwxzFgclhsPx

Black gold rises in price primarily due to the return of risk appetite considering the fact that last Saturday. The United States and China agreed to suspend the mutual increase in trade duties until at least the end of the first quarter of 209.

On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia and Saudi Arabia have an understanding that the effect of the OPEC + agreement should be extended, but the question of the volume of raw material extraction cuts remains open.

The bullish sentiment in the market also fueled the Sunday report from January oil and bitumen production in the Canadian province of Alberta will decrease by 8.7% or 325 thousand barrels per day until excessive amounts of raw materials in storage facilities are eliminated.

This week, the attention of traders will be focused on the OPEC + summit, which will be held on December 6 in Vienna.

"The rally in the oil market will continue, and quotations will rise above $ 65 per barrel if OPEC this week announces a reduction in the extraction of raw materials," experts say.

"The cartel and Russia will have to reduce the production of black gold by 1.3 million barrels per day to put an end to the growth of stocks of raw materials above the seasonal trend and return them to the average level of 5 years. Meanwhile, a sharp rise in prices is still not worth waiting. First, it will take some time to fulfill the new terms of the deal. Secondly, US production figures will also hold back growth. Thirdly, despite the introduction of restrictions by America on Iran, several countries will continue to buy oil from the Islamic Republic," they added.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound hates uncertainty

Markets hate uncertainty, and Brexit has it in abundance. That is why, despite the improvement of the political landscape, the British pound closes in the red zone for the third week in a row and lost about 3% against the US dollar. This is in terms of the pigeon rhetoric of Jerome Powell and the de-escalation of the US-Chinese trade conflict! If not for them, the GBP / USD pair would have overcome support at 1.27 a long time ago. However, the "bears" are still ahead. Until December 11, the dates of the historic vote on the draft treaty with the EU on the "divorce" in parliament, sterling volatility will increase, and with it, the chances of a continuation of the peak.

Until Theresa May made a deal with the EU, the pound fell on expectations of her absence. Then, on fears due to the resignation of ministers. A little later, on fears because of a vote of no confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party. Now, on the risks of a document rejecting by parliament. According to a Bloomberg expert survey, there is a 55% chance of such a scenario. However, is it worth worrying about this? If May's successor fails to find a way out as soon as possible (which is unlikely), the country will face either the "Norway +" option (maintaining relations with the EU and freedom of movement) or a second referendum. The chances of the latter, as evidenced by the bookmakers, grow by leaps and bounds and reached 40%.

Dynamics of the likelihood of a second referendum in Britain

NOwB8rlupy0ATZEuMHfLA1D36GVA3N5zlFRGONuP

Yes, the prime minister has a difficult task, to get the support of 320 legislators, but the fact that the Bank of England and the Treasury studies indicate a deep economic crisis in the event of an indiscriminate Brexit may influence the position of parliamentarians opposing the Theresa May plan. As for the "Norway +" option, it's the only one according to which Foggy Albion will avoid a recession. However, high volatility will not disappear anywhere, which plays against the pound.

Sterling floats on political waves and stopped paying attention to macroeconomic statistics. Even the acceleration of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Britain in November from 51.1 to 53.1 did not render much support to the bulls on GBP / USD. The economic calendar of the first week of December contains two more releases of data from purchasing managers (in construction and in the service sector). However, investors are so obsessed with voting in parliament and related polls of bookmakers and experts from Bloomberg that they are likely to ignore these events.

Another thing, the statistics on the US labor market in November. After Jerome Powell's words about the Fed's focus on incoming data, frustration with employment, unemployment, and average wages can be expensive for the US dollar. On the contrary, strong numbers will allow him to perform a swan song. Investors are seriously determined to sell the USD index after the December FOMC meeting, a short-term growth rate will benefit them.

Technically, quotes of the GBP / USD pair beyond the triangle and support breakthrough by 1.27 and 1.265 activates the AB = CD pattern and will increase the risks of realizing its target by 161.8%.

GBP / USD, the daily graph

NIt8Y8hlu3PtC0nv1AaEDUyKPXuetSFkLKFBaL7G

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: Trump's maneuver and the Italian question

Despite the relatively positive results of the G-20 summit, the euro-dollar pair took them quite calmly, with cautious optimism. Contrary to the expectations of many experts, Monday's trading opened almost at the Friday closing levels, that is, without a gap. The subsequent price increase is more likely to be connected not with China, but with Italy, which, according to rumors, has shown readiness to reach a compromise in the budget issue. However, first things first.

gTvqdhnw2CRgpB-tzsZajEwBvwJRNb3T_2bYVo95

Yesterday, the press could see a lot of headlines that the US and China "stopped a trade war." This is not entirely true, or rather, not at all. The only plus of the G20 is that the summit did not lead to an escalation of the trade conflict, while all other decisions regarding US-China relations are in the nature of a big political game.

Donald Trump is an experienced businessman and quite often applies the experience of entrepreneurship in political relations. Just a week before the key negotiations, he prudently "raised the rates", threatening to introduce new duties for 237 billion dollars, from January 1. Thus, he expanded the scope of the upcoming talks, while duties that were not yet introduced became an element of "bargaining" with Xi Jinping.

After all, the essence of the agreements reached is that Washington will not introduce additional tariffs until March 2019. During this time, the parties will conduct negotiations, according to the results of which it will be clear on which scenario further events will develop. Either the United States and China will conclude a broad trade deal, or the trade war will continue. It sounds optimistic and promising, but apart from previous events, nothing much happened. For if Trump did not threaten to impose 237 billion fees, the results of the G20 summit would not sound so impressive. The parties would only announce the continuation of negotiations.

This explains the calm reaction of the currency market to the results of the Argentine meeting. The main events of the summit took place on Saturday, so the traders had plenty of time to evaluate their essence. After all, by and large, this is not the end of the trade war, but only another attempt to reach an agreement, of which there have been quite a few over the past year. By the way, today in the second half of the day, the US Treasury will speak on one of the American TV channels, who will tell about the details of the meeting of the leaders of the countries. Therefore, it is likely that the market has not fully played this topic especially if Mnuchin reports additional information that was not announced earlier.

yCLeh4gwmsDgt0a95ZdFXD56dzqPRwHQLKSFQooj

In general, despite the partial results of the summit, the euro-dollar pair today still shows a northern impulse, approaching the borders of the 14th figure. Such dynamics are due, firstly, to the renewed risk to risk in the foreign exchange market (the dollar index again sank to 96 points), and secondly, new rumors about the prospects for the Italian problem.

It is worth recalling that last week, it was reported that the Italians agreed to reduce the deficit by 0.2%, that is, to 2.2%. And this is despite the fact that the European Commission initially demanded that the deficit is laid at the level of 0.8%. Therefore, this minimal concession disappointed Brussels, after which optimism on this issue came to nothing. Today, this issue has become relevant again, as the Italian press reported that the authorities are ready to revise the deficit level to the downside.

According to preliminary information, we are talking about 1.9% - 2%, allegedly the Prime Minister of Italy Conte suggested to reduce the rate to these levels, while members of the coalition government agreed with this decision. It should be noted that during the months of negotiations, the European Commission also moderated its appetites in this matter. According to rumors, they have now raised the maximum allowable deficit level to two percent. Thus, if the above information is confirmed, it will speak about the high probability of resolving the Italian problem, which "hangs anchor" on the euro-dollar pair, against the background of other problems.

Thus, the European currency has a chance for corrective growth across the entire market. If Italy finds a common language with Brussels, the disappointing economic reports will fade into the background. In addition, the slowdown in inflation and GDP growth will not affect the fate of the incentive program. QE will be completed this month anyway. As for the future prospects of monetary policy, they look too distant (the rate increase by the ECB is not expected until the autumn of 2019).

VZe7RwxYTtPtu2WXii1STEx1CyD-iOyh-3i_CY8p

If we look at the technical picture of today, the bulls of the pair need to gain a foothold above 1.1365 (Tenkan-Sen line, coinciding with the Bollinger Bands middle line at D1). In this case, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will generate a Golden Cross signal, which will open the way for further growth, to the mark of 1.1460 (the top line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar completes growth phase

Fed Chairman Powell said last week that the Fed rate is now at levels just below neutral. This message is markedly different from the position of the Fed a couple of months ago in the direction of easing and actually indicates the end of the dollar growth cycle.

There are no other mechanisms capable of supporting the trend towards the strengthening of the dollar. Trump's tax reform did not produce the expected effect, economic growth is slowing down, the trade balance is still updating lows, and even the announcement of agreements reached at the G20 summit with China will have a very short-term effect.

The only mechanism that is now seriously considered as a bullish factor for the dollar is a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. It is believed that further reductions will lead to a liquidity deficit, but this conclusion contains serious flaws.

Consideration of the mechanism for reducing the Fed's balance sheet leads to the opposite conclusion, reducing the balance and monetary base does not lead to a liquidity deficit, and therefore is not a factor that objectively contributes to the strengthening of the dollar.

The Fed during the QE paid commercial banks a percentage of excess reserves. It was a special mechanism introduced in October 2008 as part of the fight against the financial crisis. Commercial banks do not keep their reserves in the overnight market, that is, reducing the practice of lending their excess reserves to each other, but keep them in special accounts of the Fed, because they can get a stable and guaranteed income for reserves.

And all because the Fed began to pay the balance more than the overnight rate. Due to this mechanism, the Fed attracted to the accounts of 2.8 trillion dollars of excess funds of commercial banks, much of which was used in conducting quantitative easing operations.

Since the beginning of the rate growth cycle in December 2015, the rate on excess reserves also synchronously rose, but by a smaller amount, and at the moment both rates became equal at the level of 2.20%.

0AdNCdi0Y43kRCzzB3Ud_yk2WDjYN0PFpU7mg10t

The Fed's actions have expectedly led to the fact that it has become less and less profitable for commercial banks to keep excess reserves in the Fed's accounts.

Thus, the policy of reducing the balance of the Fed is reduced to several complementary operations. The Fed reduces its balance sheet without refinancing the income from redeeming government bonds but returns the money to the banks. Commercial banks, in turn, take the surplus from the Fed, as it is less profitable to keep them there and maintain high demand in the debt market since bond yields are growing faster.

These actions lead to a reduction in the Fed's monetary base, which, under other conditions, should have increased the demand for the dollar and, accordingly, its value. But, as can be seen from the graph below, the reduction of the monetary base is slower than the redundant reserves are reduced, that is, there is actually no less money in circulation, but even more, because the growth rate of the US public debt is growing at a faster rate, and financing the budget deficit returns all the proceeds back into circulation.

bqAJNaR5TueXYdqIHCcOiKVFFC6C7kLYJwvtxKyJ

We summarize. Reducing the balance of the Fed does not lead to a liquidity deficit, and therefore is not a driver for the strengthening of the dollar. Consequently, the only really valid driver is the continuation of the cycle on the Fed interest rate growth.

In this regard, it is necessary to proceed from the fact that the insider about the likely shift in the range of neutral rates, which the Minister of Finance Mnuchin defends in negotiations with the Fed, will simultaneously mean the termination of the growth of the dollar due to the lack of growth factors.

Finally, the market will draw conclusions about the trend reversal after the publication of the employment report on Friday. Only a very good report exceeding market expectations in key positions will provide an opportunity to hope that the Fed will not rush to announce the end of the rate increase cycle. Any other result, especially negative in terms of wage growth rates, will be able to lead to a dollar reversal and the formation of a long-term basis.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 3. The pair still retains the chances of building wave C

analytics5c04df299776e.png

Wave counting analysis:

During the November 30 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair lost about 30 basis points, but the minimum of the expected wave b did not break through, therefore, the chances of building an upward wave c remain. Until this breakthrough is reached, the pound sterling has quite good chances of rising to 32 and 33 figures within wave C. If the British Parliament accepts Theresa May on Brexit, this will be a strong support for the pound sterling, and the chances of building not only waves C, but a longer uptrend of the trend will increase significantly.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2935 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

For the GBP / USD currency pair, the key level is 1.2721. A successful attempt to break through this mark will complicate the downward trend. Now, I still recommend cautious purchases of the pair, based on building an upward wave C with targets located between 1.2935 and 1.3175, which equates to 50.0% and 0.0% of Fibonacci. However, the negative news background from the UK, if it will, can "help" the tool to break through the mark of 1.2721.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 3. Eurocurrency ready for new growth

analytics5c04deee8649b.png

Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Friday, the EUR / USD pair fell by 75 basis points, but it turned to growth on Monday. Thus, the conclusion suggests itself that waves 1, 2, 3, of the new upward trend sections, have completed their construction. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will continue within the framework of the expected wave 3, 3, with targets located near the level of 127.2% Fibonacci. There is still an option in which the entire downward section of the trend will take a more complex form, but at the moment, this option is a backup.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1471 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair remains within the framework of the uptrend plot. I recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1471 and 1.1528, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. Only a successful attempt to break through the minimum of the supposed wave 2 will indicate the pair's readiness to complicate the downward set of waves.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on December 3. The United States will not raise duties on Chinese goods

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Over the weekend, the United States and China made progress in trade negotiations, which led to the strengthening of the euro today in the Asian session. While trading is above support at 1.1346, the demand for EUR/USD pair will continue. Formation of a false breakout at this level will be an additional signal for opening long positions in order to update the maximum of 1.1392, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decline below the level of 1.1346, long positions can be returned immediately to the rebound from the support of 1.1309.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Only the formation of a false breakdown and a return below the level of 1.1392 can call into question the continuation of the upward trend in the euro that was formed today during the Asian session, which will be the first sales signal. The main task of the bears remains the level of 1.1346, fixing below of which will lead to a larger fall of EUR/USD pair to the support area of 1.1309, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of EUR / USD growth in the first half of the day above the resistance of 1.1392, I recommend returning to short positions after the update of the maximum near 1.1433.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The upward trend in EUR/USD may be limited by the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1385. In the event of a decline in the euro in the first half of the day, support will be provided by the lower line of the indicator in the area of 1.1309, from where you can buy immediately for a rebound.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

U94fp9-ULHDpqcYDbKfvhNCXZCgUDkH22csfc4Cl

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: US and China negotiate a truce in the trade war

The outcome of the G20 summit was the signing of a new NAFTA trade agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Donald Trump called the new trade agreement modern and correct.

Such good results were achieved after negotiations between the United States and China, as a result of which an agreement was reached to suspend the trade conflict. Traders positively perceived this news, which reduces the likelihood of aggravating trade conflict and fueling the Cold War between the two countries.

After the talks, a joint statement was published, in which country representatives reaffirmed the importance of the multilateral trading system.

The United States announced its readiness to postpone the increase in duties on imports of Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%. In turn, China agreed to start lowering and then completely remove the duties on imports of American cars. Let me remind you that currently, the duty on cars from the United States is 40%.

As for fundamental statistics, it slightly damaged the rate of the European currency on Friday, which fell against the US dollar.

According to the report, the unemployment rate in the eurozone in October of this year again remained unchanged, which can be compared with the slowdown in the European economy, which is observed at the end of this year. According to official data published on Friday, the number of unemployed in the eurozone decreased by only 12,000, while unemployment in the eurozone remained at 8.1%.

Weak data on the growth of inflation in the euro area also did not fall in favor of investors. According to the report, in November of this year, compared to November of last year, the consumer price index in the eurozone rose by 2% after rising by 2.2% in October. Economists had expected the index to increase by 2.1% in November. As for core inflation, it is even less. The growth of the basic consumer price index in November slowed to 1% from 1.1% in October, while economists had expected it to remain unchanged.

0obbtbwqDl9kGMGTEG72DflpZnuggSdRkmzSLXuS

Many market participants are counting on inflation rates since they are the ones who play a key role in influencing the ECB's monetary policy. Weak performance may have an impact on the regulator's decision regarding the timing of interest rate hikes next year. However, first, you need to deal with the curtailment of the asset repurchase program, which is scheduled for this month.

The indicator of business activity in Chicago in November of this year has grown significantly, which supported the US dollar on Friday afternoon. According to the MNI Indicators report, Chicago PMI Purchasing Managers Index in November rose to 66.4 points from 58.4 points in October. Economists had expected the figure to be 58 points. I recall that values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

The speech of the representative of the Fed John Williams did not affect the US dollar, as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in general, did not touch upon the issue of monetary policy. The only thing that Williams paid attention to is the situation with interest rates, which change towards steadily low levels. This suggests that central banks may need to explore new strategies in order to keep inflation at the desired level.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, it is quite likely that the upside potential of the euro will be limited by large resistance around 1.1390-1.1400. Only its breakthrough will lead to the continuation of the growth of the trading instrument, with the update of the highs of 1.1440 and 1.1480.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 03/12/2018

The big picture: The market is preparing a move.

The Big 20 Summit was held and the United States and China agreed to stop the trade war for 60 days to hold talks,which is positive for the markets.

A new week with headlines from the US, highlighting the most Important of ADP Employment Report and Beige Book Fed Report on wednesday and nonfarm on Friday.

Question: Will there be a Fed rate hike in December?

Next week — that is, in a week — the most important news will be the vote in the British Parliament on an agreement with the EU (December 11, according to plan), and a decision by the ECB (December 13).

Pound:

We are ready to buy from 1.2850.

We are ready to sell from 1.2720.

K4ZNMki7dmeoJWeTSNpOQ1tMAE9V45jbsvbmrP5o

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. December 3rd. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Laborites demand expert assessment of the impact of the

4-hour timeframe

analytics5c04d5a261c87.png

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -9.5392

The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, December 3, for the fourth time, failed to overcome the support zone of 1.2700 - 1.2720 and bounced off of it again. However, as we said earlier, each new rebound from this zone is accompanied by a smaller upward rollback than the previous one. Therefore, we believe that sooner or later this zone will be overcome. Unless, of course, the pound sterling does not receive unexpectedly weighty fundamental support. Meanwhile, representatives of the opposition Labor Party of the United Kingdom expect Theresa May to provide expert assessments of the agreements reached during negotiations with the EU. According to the Laborites, before voting for the most important document in the last 25 years, they must fully understand all the legal consequences of this transaction. Otherwise, it will be initiated upon the obstacles of the work of the parliament. As we see, the political crisis in Britain does not subside, and the confidence in the Prime Minister is still low. However, everything now boils down to only one thing, voting on the Brexit project in parliament. Everything else is now not so important. The pound sterling seems to understand this and does not want to overcome the zone of 1.2700 - 1.2720 until it becomes clear whether the bill of Theresa May will accept the parliament or not. Thus, we believe that until the day of the vote, the British currency will remain in limbo, but without serious jumps and falls.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2756

S2 - 1.2726

S3 - 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2787

R2 - 1.2817

R3 - 1.2848

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has fixed below the MA, but at the moment, a new round of correction has begun. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator downwards will indicate a resumption of the downward movement with targets at 1.2726 and 1.2695, however, we remind that the pair still has serious difficulties with overcoming 1.2720.

Orders for the purchase of small lots can be opened in the case of fixing the pair above the moving average line with the targets of 1.2848 and 1.2878. In itself, fixing above the MA is possible, but the pair may be extremely weak, as the pound still does not have fundamental support.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for December 03, 2018

analytics5c0507c500b9a.png

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found the upward breakout of the 6-hour balance, which is sign that buyers are in control today. I also found the rejection from the demand zone (blue shape), which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $4.117 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%) and at the price of $4.225 (swing high).

Support/Resistance

$4.000 – Intraday resistance

$3.870– Intraday support

$4.117– Objective target 1

$4.225 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. December 3rd. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Negotiations between the States and China ended successfully

4-hour timeframe

analytics5c04d56ee0002.png

Technical details:

The higher linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 47.1665

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, December 3, shows moderate growth, although trading on Friday ended with the advantage of the US currency. At the G20 summit, negotiations were held between the leaders of the United States and China regarding trade duties. Trump previously introduced duties on Chinese products at a rate of 10% and threatened to increase them to 25%. However, the parties at the first stage of the negotiations managed to agree that the new duties would not be introduced yet. In exchange, China will have to increase the volume of imported products from the United States. It's too early to say that the parties have come to a complete consensus. Knowing the policy of Donald Trump, with the slightest mismatch of expectations with reality, a new round of threats and sanctions against Beijing can begin. Given the fact that the trade balance between the countries has a big imbalance in the direction of the States, it is not beneficial for China to fight with Washington. So far it is also impossible to say that amid the easing of tension in relations between the States and China, the US dollar has strengthened strongly or is ready to fall. We believe that the theme of the trade war will no longer support the US currency. If only because the escalation of the conflict would not be beneficial for the US either, and de-escalation, logically, should, on the contrary, create pressure on the dollar. Today in the United States, index of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM will be published, you should pay attention to it.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has once again fixed above the MA. Therefore, at the moment, long positions in small lots with a target of 1.1414 have become relevant again. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator downwards indicates at least a new round of downward correction.

It is recommended to open sell orders with a target of 1.1292 after fixing the pair below the moving average line, which is still the more likely option.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for December 03, 2018

analytics5c0505e005da4.png

Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,225.00. According to the H4 time – frame, I have found the breakout of key resistance trendline in the background and potential end of the downward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I have also found confirmed inverted head and shoulders pattern (bullish), which is another sign of the strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward projected upward target is set at the price of $1,265.60.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of the currency pair GBP / USD from December 3 to 7, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, the price will move up with the first target of 1.2940, 13 average EMA (yellow thin line).

7XuCq9thkymAzn1tPvXQY0GviX32ZORNeIcHioMD

Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle (Monday is work up) and the second upper shadow (Friday is work down).

The first upper target is 1.2940, 13 middle EMA (yellow thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of the EUR / USD currency pair from December 3 to 7, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

When moving up, the first upper target is 1.1473 (upper fractal).

bSCXtly0jrt5Wnym6gm0L7Rw2sr-KgQZrMsWQXkp

Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow for the weekly white candle (Monday is up) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday is up).

When moving up, the first upper target is 1.1447 13, medium EMA (yellow thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for December 3. Eurocurrency growth potential is limited

4h

analytics5c04cd4356ad2.png

The EUR / USD currency pair performed a fall to the correctional Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1303 and rebound from it with a turn in favor of the European currency. As a result, on December 3, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423. Maturing divergences are not observed on the current chart. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1162 can be expected.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

GTYm-tKuWELYxtan0JpKuNlQ2pzJzXsxDkj6RRpr

On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair, after rebounding from the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285, reversed in favor of the EU currency and began to grow in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no emerging divergences today. Fixing a pair of quotes under the correction level of 127.2% will work in favor of the American currency and resuming the fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 100.0% since the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 1.1303

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair closes below the level of 1.1303.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for December 03, 2018

analytics5c050360cc5c4.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards during the Asian session. The price tested the level of 1.1379. Anyway, according to the M30 time – frame, I have found that rejection from the pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.1375, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found the overbought condition on the Stochastic oscillator and MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1282 (S1) and at the price of 1.1247 (S2).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 03, 2018

analytics5c05037072d25.png

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1338 towards 1.1265. Now, the price is set at 1.1349. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.1338 and 1.1390. Moreover, the price area of 1.1390/1.1338 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1338 and 1.1253. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1338, the market will decline further to 1.1253 as as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1197 so as to test the daily support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1338, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for December 3. Pound sterling continues to hold above 1.2720

4h

analytics5c04cd06efcbb.png

The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart performed a rebound from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812 and resumed the process of falling in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the British currency and a return to the correction level of 76.4%. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the probability of continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.2904.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

bUppXDLGH4fkM_UJcKDVHdTup0-VCFclyXY_NJPW

On the hourly chart, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator and rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2809, the quotes of the pair reversed in favor of the American dollar and resumed the process of falling towards the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.2696. New emerging divergences today, no indicator. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair with a target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

New sales of the currency pair GBP / USD can be carried out with the target of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if a bearish divergence is formed or the rebound from the level of 1.2809 (hourly chart) is formed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD on December 3, 2018

EUR / USD pair

On Friday, the euro lost 74 points on weak economic data for Europe. Retail sales in Germany fell by 0.3% in October against expectations of 0.4% growth. The unemployment rate in the euro area remained at the same 8.1% against expectations of a decline to 8.0%. The Eurozone CPI for November decreased from 2, 2% g / g to 2.0% g / g. In the US, the business activity index in the Chicago manufacturing sector rose sharply from 58.4 to 66.4 in November. Over the weekend, there was positive news about new agreements reached in trade between the US and China. The United States will limit duties on Chinese goods to 10%, while China will increase purchases of American goods. Investors considered this a decrease in tensions between the two countries and trading opened on Monday with a slight weakening of the dollar. On the four-hour chart, the price remains under the MACD trend line, indicating that the gap will soon close and the price will automatically go below the balance line (indicator red). With the closure of the gap, the Marlin oscillator signal line will return to the negative zone, which will strengthen the technical signal for a further decline in the euro. The closest goal of the bears is the level of 1.1267 at least on November 28. Overcoming the support opens target at 1.1190.

oSaU77dvTMlBS_LD-s7DSBcXQos_V8mBrnYKeOgz

UUI-dL2UKQHh96fCD3rh0kgyVn3QZWK6uVrE3gye

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 03, 2018

analytics5c04fbd893118.png

Overview:

Pivot: 1.2829.

The GBP/USD pair fell from the level of 1.2890 towards 1.2780. Now, the price is set at 1.2850. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2890 and 1.3001. Volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.2829 and 1.2725 in coming hours. In the short term, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2725 to form a bullish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.2829, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2829. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.2725 towards 1.2829 and 1.2890 as targets. In the H4 time frame: However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2890, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2890. So, the market will decline further to 1.2725 in order to return to the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2640.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP / USD pair on December 3, 2018

GBP / USD pair

The British pound fell by 32 points on Friday under pressure from the dollar strengthening and on the statement by the President of the European Council, Tusk, about the only possible version of Brexit. Today in the Asian session, the pound sterling has slightly grown on the general weakening of the dollar as a market reaction to the reduction of tensions between the United States and China. Nevertheless, the declining trend of the pound continues. Stock indices are growing on optimism in the US-China relationship and this will increase the demand for dollars. Correctional growth can be completed on the MACD resistance line of the four-hour timeframe at 1.2790. After further fixing of the price under the trend line of the price channel on the daily, there will be another attempt to reduce the price to support the underlying line in the area of 1.2550.

iMyQH8SLyM57P0m7sOUozsXg1gwm6wD2ej-HaMwr

M7poykg16GTCLtiKtGQJ4HEP35SjtDPMekly-LUa

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on December 3, 2018

USD / JPY pair

The yen securely consolidated its position above the indicator lines of the daily timeframe. Stock indices on Monday are taking off thanks to the trade and Jinping trade arrangements. Data shows China A50 at 2.84%, IDX Composite at 1.31%, and Nikkei 225 at 1.32%. We are waiting for the growth of the yen to its previous goal with the resistance of the trend line of the price channel in the region of 115.15.

ibVFo1gAZmIJN7IxgcyYHoZmTVQaDziR9FlxkZ04

g8qnhdV_KbL9sx7AP5paNZ_A7umUlsgRF73SB_7s

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / USD for the week of December 3

Large-scale graphics:

The last wave model from mid-August forms a bullish construction. The current wave level allows assigning the whole wave to the correction of the main long-term trend.

At4oarLJSydjbhWJ7NpPxwtFVJXac9UtvXoZnEJ7

Medium scale graphics:

From late September to mid-November, the price has formed a downward stretch. In a more massive wave, it became the middle part (B).

-ShSY8oAX9aaThHfTvNInxQ-Wmx5bOnQoPug-ZhV

Small-scale graphics:

The price hike, which began on November 12, gave rise to the final part (C) in a complex large-scale correctional model.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming week, the overall volatility of the price fluctuations of the pair will increase. The expected upside potential is limited by a large-scale counter-zone. Purchasing makes sense to make as part of intersessional trading.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1320 / 1.1270

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted, the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction requires confirming signals of the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Monthly review of the currency pair GBP / USD for November 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

In December, it is possible that the bulls will again try to move upward with the first target of 1.3111 - 13 average EMA (yellow thin line).

V2rElnvu9Z8j5aJc7hCvPuXfkAcBwkMHQlAWDdWZ

Fig. 2 (monthly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

Conclusion of the complex analysis - possible top.

The total result of calculating the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a monthly schedule: the price is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month is white) for the monthly white candle and the second upper shadow (the last week is black). The first target is 1.3111–13 average EMA (yellow thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December

Forecast for December 3:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:wW0lN5gueDyhRGBqSDQDO9PJkcNtIrbM4JG1PFg3For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1477, 1.1429, 1.1414, 1.1392, 1.1364, 1.1297, 1.1266, 1.1233 and 1.1206. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 28, for which a breakdown of the level of 1.1297 is necessary. In this case, the first target is 1.1266 and the breakdown of which, in turn, must be accompanied by a pronounced move to the level of 1.1233. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1206, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1364. Here, the first target is 1.1392 and the breakdown of which will continue the development of the upward structure from November 28. In this case, the target is 1.1414 and consolidation is near this level. The passage at the price of the range of 1.1414 - 1.1429 will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1477, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The main trend is the formation of the upward potential of November 28, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1364 Take profit: 1.1390

Buy 1.1392 Take profit: 1.1414

Sell: 1.1295 Take profit: 1.1268

Sell: 1.1264 Take profit: 1.12350I0mMdZDfRxIdLh-0OFgCRuxEDfxZUBrHmyey4c3For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2925, 1.2873, 1.2850, 1.2741, 1.2691, 1.2658, 1.2613 and 1.2583. Here, the descending structure of November 22 is still relevant for setting goals. Its cancellation is possible after the price passes the range of 1.2850 - 1.2873. In this case, the goal is 1.2925, up to this level, we expect clearance of the expressed initial conditions for the top. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2741. In this case, the first target is 1.2691. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2691 - 1.2658 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2613. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2583, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the local downward cycle of November 22, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2873 Take profit: 1.2925

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2740 Take profit: 1.2693

Sell: 1.2656 Take profit: 1.2614y03GbBTYIu_45zydfa9CLp3xlcvRo2qTxIqpU6C4For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0058, 1.0037, 1.0022, 0.9998, 0.9964, 0.9945 and 0.9915. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure from November 29th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9998. In this case, the goal is 1.0022 and in the range of 1.0022 - 1.0037 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0058, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9964 - 0.9945 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 29. In this case, the first potential target is 0.9915.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9998 Take profit: 1.0020

Buy: 1.0037 Take profit: 1.0056

Sell: 0.9964 Take profit: 0.9947

Sell: 0.9943 Take profit: 0.9915Ul8ZphwfQmgXw9rrbQ4vW50wfQSkd6vUBO13ohPSFor the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.91, 114.52, 114.34, 114.02, 113.67, 113.45 and 113.07. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of November 20. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 114.02. In this case, the goal is 114.34 and in the range of 114.34 - 114.52 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.91, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, is possible in the range of 113.45 - 113.07. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 112.57.

The main trend is the rising structure of November 20, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 114.04 Take profit: 114.34

Buy: 114.52 Take profit: 114.90

Sell: 113.44 Take profit: 113.12

Sell: 113.05 Take profit: 112.65

U_VhPeLsTdJEu1gXzApAg3aa44tPOZ4suBYzxPOD

For the Canadian dollar / Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3434, 1.3411, 1.3361, 1.3337, 1.3301, 1.3240, 1.3219 and 1.3185. Here, the range of 1.3240 - 1.3219 is the key support for the upward structure of November 26. Its price passage will have a downward movement development. In this case, the first target is 1.3185. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3301. In this case, the target is 1.3337. The price pass of the range of 1.3337 - 1.3361 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the potential target of 1.3411 and in the range of 1.3411 - 1.3434 is the consolidation.

The main trend is the local rising structure of November 26.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3301 Take profit: 1.3337

Buy: 1.3363 Take profit: 1.3410

Sell: 1.3219 Take profit: 1.3185

Sell: Take profit:

0w_y0QqObTB3ly-kNl7j-V4UY9Co-ZF1wGtric-n

For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7457, 0.7425, 0.7375, 0.7337, 0.7314, 0.7279, 0.7246 and 0.7198. Here, we are following the rising structure of November 27. The continuing upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7375. In this case, the target is 0.7425. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7457, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7337 - 0.7314 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7279 and this level is the key support for the top. The breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first target is 0.7246 .

The main trend is the ascending structure of November 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7377 Take profit: 0.7425

Buy: 0.7425 Take profit: 0.7455

Sell: 0.7335 Take profit: 0.7316

Sell: 0.7311 Take profit: 0.7280

bi3VsZ57ZDJd_uesmms4e3dQfSn1aNhQ5Ah3924I

For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 130.45, 130.05, 129.76, 129.34, 128.89, 128.64 and 128.33. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of November 23. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 129.34. In this case, the goal is 129.76 and in the range of 129.76 - 130.05 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 130.45, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 128.89 - 128.64. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 128.33 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.36 Take profit: 129.74

Buy: 129.78 Take profit: 130.05

Sell: 128.62 Take profit: 128.33

Sell: 128.30 Take profit: 127.80

dZwDBg0_SjhEWPioN4wWQL-EUIPNP8WxbDiUW6YP

For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.81, 147.32, 146.59, 146.32, 145.86, 144.91, 144.43 and 143.99. Here, we continue to follow the formation of the local ascending structure from November 20. At the moment, the price is close to the cancellation of this structure, for which a breakdown of 114.43 is necessary. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.86. In this case, the target is 146.32 and consolidation is near this level. The passage of the price of the range of 146.32 - 146.59 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 147.32. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 147.81, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 144.91 - 144.43 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 20. In this case, the first potential target is 143.99.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of November 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.88 Take profit: 146.30

Buy: 146.65 Take profit: 147.30

Sell: 144.90 Take profit: 144.55

Sell: 144.40 Take profit: 144.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Monthly review of the currency pair EUR / USD for December 2018

There is a descending channel on the market (red bold lines). The price since September 2018, having tested the resistance line (the red bold line), is moving down. In November, thanks to strong news, the market moved to the side channel. In December, the downward trend is possible only when the price breaks through the level of 1.1244, the support line (blue bold line), while the first week of the month may be the top.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

December will begin with an upward movement, with the first goal of 1.1509, the resistance line (red bold line). And only then will the bottom. The assumed first lower target of 1.1244 is the support line (blue bold line).

TjopGQVkUPBWGlQmtQHdO_zAOlsUg4uiiA-MyE58

Fig. 2 (monthly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

The conclusion of the complex analysis - most likely the lower work.

The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on a monthly schedule: the price is most likely to have a downward trend with the presence of the first upper shadow (the first week of the month is the top) of the monthly black candle and the absence of the second lower shadow (the last week is black).

December will begin with an upward movement, with the first goal of 1.1509, the resistance line (red bold line). To achieve this level, the bottom is possible. The assumed first lower target of 1.1244 is the support line (blue bold line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The new agreement between the US and China has brought down the dollar

On Monday, trading on world markets began on a positive note on the wave of the main news, which market players eagerly awaited, agreements between the USA and China on trade duties.

Following the meeting of the G-20 leaders in Argentina, D. Trump and Xi Jinping reached an agreement that the trade tariffs from the United States would remain at 10% and would not increase from the new year to 25%, while that China, in accordance with the agreement, will have to increase the volume of purchases of American goods, in particular, agricultural products.

Against the background of this news, Chinese stock indexes soared up on Monday morning, pulling up other financial markets in the Asia-Pacific region as well. Futures on US and European stock indices also traded with a significant increase, and the index of "fear" VIX at the time of this writing falls by 7.10%.

In the foreign exchange market, first of all, commodity and commodity currencies in tandem with the American dollar began trading gap up. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are noticeably added, which receive support in the wake of reducing tensions between Beijing and Washington, which gives hope to investors that the trade between China, on the one hand, and Australia and New Zealand, on the other, will not be reduced.

Evaluating the prospects of these agreements, the question arises, how long will they act and do they not look like just some temporary truce?

Yes, there really are such signs. Earlier this summer, after Trump's deafening threats to expand customs duties to 25% on trade with China to $ 200 billion, investors were noticeably worried, but then the American side decided to take a pause and increase duties by 10%, which somewhat calmed the markets. Now, a similar phenomenon is noted, which, in our opinion, is still very similar to the summer truce. How this will turn out in the future, of course, time will tell. In the meantime, the US dollar will remain under pressure locally, as the reduction of world tension on the wave adversely affects the demand for defensive assets and, above all, the dollar exchange rate.

In this situation, the expectation of a likely reduction in the rate of interest rate increases by the Fed outweighs the interest in the dollar as a safe haven, and the growth in demand for risky assets has traditionally in the last 10 years led to its weakening in relation to major currencies.

Observing optimism in the market, we can say that before the publication of data on employment in the United States, updated values of inflation indicators, as well as the Fed meeting at the end of this month, the dollar may remain under pressure.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD / USD currency pair is trading with a rise above the level of 0.7340 in the wake of the outcome of the negotiations between the US and China on trade duties. Fixing a pair above this level may lead to a local price increase to 0.7440.

The NZD / USD currency pair is trading with a rise above the level of 0.6865 against the background of the outcome of negotiations on trade duties between the US and China. Fixing a pair above this level may increase the price to 0.6940.

W-uOAoXbi2hbSMQwkN4hpGndWLXrpFEhmL1XEhxO

F84aH2uEDn9nm48iVFJyUR2vTVRhRFt2LHIjC5jp

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for December 3, 2018 for the pair GBP / USD

The price on Friday once again tested the support line 1.2735 (red bold line), but could not break through this level and went up. Today, the market, has been moving up. It will try to reach 13 average EMA - 1.2819 (yellow thin line). Today, strong calendar news is released at 12.30 and 18.00 Moscow time.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the upward movement with the first goal 13 is the average EMA - 1.2819 (yellow thin line).

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - top;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the upward movement is shown with the first goal of 13 average EMA - 1.2819 (yellow thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for December 3, 2018 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, it is possible to move up with the first goal 1.1370 - 21 average EMA (black thin line) and then 1.1403 - the upper fractal.

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, it is possible to move up with the first goal 1.1370 - 21 average EMA (black thin line) and then 1.1403 - the upper fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis for USD / JPY for the week of December 3

Large scale graphics:

As part of the rising wave dominating from March on the yen chart in recent months, a hidden correction is being formed. It has a complex irregular shape and is close to completion.

analytics5c04d6ceb1b85.jpg

Medium scale graphics:

From the beginning of October, the price in the lateral plane forms a bearish wave zigzag. It completes a larger correction wave.

analytics5c04d6de446d6.jpg

Small scale graphics:

From November 12, the downward wave is formed. At the time of analysis, the middle part (B) is nearing its completion. The wave is at the end of a larger wave structure.

Forecast and recommendations:

This week the flat correctional price movement will continue. The volatility of the pair may increase. Sales are possible as part of intraday transactions, but it is wiser to reduce the lot. For a full trade, you need to wait for the completion of the entire wave of correction.

Resistance zones:

- 114.20 / 114.70

Support areas:

- 112.50 / 112.00

Explanations to the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com