Global macro overview for 14/07/2015

Global macro overview for 14/07/2015:

The core US retail sales growth rate in June is officially the slowest one on a year-over-year basis since February 2014. Today's reading of -0,1% is lower than an expected 0,7% increase and 0,8% last month. Retail sales were weaker as well, with even worse -0,3% number versus the expected 0,2% increase and 1% month before. Even retail sales excluding auto and gas came out lower at -0,2% againts the forecast for 0,5% and 0,5% in month before. It looks like the current US economy is between the rock and a hard place as retail sales are not going anywhere near the levels seen in 2009 - 2011. Moreover, the retail sales cycle had peaked in November 2014 with 4,7% reading and since then the economy is getting worse despite the Fed's attempts to stabilize the situation.

Amid the reports, USD/JPY fell after three days of its upward rally. It has (almost) hit the 61%Fibo retracement at the level of 123.77 and currently keeps declining toward the first daily support at the level of 122.87.

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Global macro overview for 14/07/2015

Global macro overview for 14/07/2015:

Readings for ZEW economic sentiment index in Germany revealed another slide. This time, it dropped to the level of 29.7 from the previous level of 31.5 points. This reading was worse than expected 30.6 points. This drop is the fourth over last months. On the other hand, a slight improvement in ZEW current situation reading can be noticed as the current 63.9 points are better than 60.0 points, which analysts had expected, and better than 62.9 a month ago. Nevertheless, the market is not much impressed with ZEW data as the main focus still remains on Greece. The EUR/USD jumped slightly during the time of relase, but currently the bias is still fundamentally bearish.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 14, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is underpinned by the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen and yen-funded carry trades as global sentiment towards risk improved (VIX fear gauge eased 17.41% to 13.9, S&P 500 closed up 1.11% at 2,099.6 overnight) after Greece and its creditors had reached a conditional deal. The eurozone's leaders would give Greece up to EUR86 billion if the Greek Parliament passes pension overhauls and sales-tax increases by Wednesday. USD/JPY is also supported by higher US Treasury yields (10-year rose 3.1 bps to 2.446% Monday) and positive US dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.80 versus 96.01 early Monday) as reduced risk of "Grexit" opens a way for the Federal Reserve to begin raising the interest rates, demand from Japanese importers, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan's exports.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.45 and the second target at 123.70. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.20. The pivot point is at 121.90.

Resistance levels: 123.70 124 124.35

Support levels: 122.40 122 121.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 14, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is supported positive sentiment towards the US dollar (ICE spot dollar index last 96.80 versus 96.01 early Monday) as reduced risk of "Grexit" opens a way for the Federal Reserve to begin raising the key interest rates; demand from Japanese importers; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and the threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention in addition to negative Swiss interest rates.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stay elevated at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9415. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.365. The pivot point stands at 0.9530. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.96 and the second target at 0.9635.

Resistance levels: 0.96 0.9635 0.97

Support levels: 0.9415 0.9365 0.9320

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 14, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is undermined by the positive US dollar sentiment, divergent Reserve Bank of New Zealand-Federal Reserve monetary policy stances, and lower dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by improved investors' risk appetite.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is turning bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6650. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6620. The pivot point stands at 0.6720. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6745 and the second target at 0.6780.

Resistance levels: 0.6745 0.6780 0.6850

Support levels: 0.6650 0.6620 0.6585

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 14, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is undermined by the soft EUR/USD undertone. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen as global sentiment improved amid a Greek deal.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 192.90 and the second target at 193.75. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 190.65 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 189.65. The pivot point is at 191.50.

Resistance levels: 192.90 193.75 194.50

Support levels: 190.65 189.65 189

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CHF/JPY preparing to continue falling

After forming a double top reversal patter at 134 on June 22, CHF/JPY started to move lower resulting in a breakout of the descending channel. The pair found the bottom at 127.05 on July 08.

The Fibonacci applied to the ascending channel breakout point shows that S2 (128.08) support has been broken while a price rejected the R2 (131.29) resistance fter a correctional wave up. The upper trendline of the descending channel was rejected as well and now R1 is playing the role of the key resistance.

Consider selling CHF/JPY today while the price is near R1 targeting S3 (126.10), that is 0% Fibs. Only a daily close above R2 (131.29) should immediately change the downtrend into a short-term uptrend, but this scenario has a very low probability at this point.

Support: 129.30, 128.08, 126.10

Resistance: 130.30, 131.30

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 14, 2015

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Overview:

  • The The key level is seen at 0.6751. Therefore, this level is going to act as the strong resistance on July 14, 2015. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.6619 and 0.6751. Also, is should be noted that the double bottom and the strong resistance are seen at 0.6619 and 0.6751 respectively. Sell at 0.6751 with the first target at 0.6655 in order to test the daily pivot poin, then it will continue towards 0.6619. On the other hand, if the trend fails to close below, the double bottom will be formed at the level of 0.6619. Consequently, buy above 0.6619 with a target at 0.6700. The level of 0.6721 is representing the weekly resistance 1.

Note:

  • The trend of NZD/USD pair has formed a strong bearish channel in the H4 chart.

Warning:

  • It has to review the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 14, 2015

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Overview:

  • According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair has still trapped between 0.9542 and 0.9365 in the H4 chart.
  • Also, it should be noted that the double top will be set at 0.9542.
  • Strong resistance will be formed at the level of 0.9540 providing a clear signal for sell deals with targets at 0.9440 and 0.9370.
  • Stop-loss is to be placed above the double top at 0.9542.
  • Strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9365 providing a clear signal for buy deals with a target at 0.9530.

Observations:

  • We expect a range about at least 87 pips in coming day.
  • The risk of 58 pips must make a profit of 87 pips.
  • The value of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.9365.
  • The level of 0.9365 will confirm the bullish market.
  • Volatility is 112.84. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.
  • The trend is still clling for strong bullish market from the area of 0.9365.
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GBP/USD downward correction

After an impulsive two-week rally up from 1.5160 to 1.5930, GBP/USD started to move lower. The wave down, started on June 18, resulted in a breakout of the uptrend trendline.

After the breakout, the pair immidiately nosedived to 1.5326. The price broke below the S1 (1.5515) and S2 (1.5417) suppor level taken from the Fibonacci levels applied to the trend-line breakout point. While support is broken, the GBP/USD is not going to test any highs. At the same time, the price is rejecting the R1 (1.5594) resistance level of 1.5600 that is a very strong phsycological level as well.

Overall mid-term trend is bearish and GBP/USD could be yet to test the major support area between S3 (1.5260) and S4 (1.5170). Consider selling GBP/USD this week while its price is near R1 (1.5595) targeting either S3 or S4 support levels. Only a daily close above R2 (1.5673) should result in resumption of the major uptrend.

Support: 1.5515, 1.5417, 1.5260, 1.5170

Resistance: 1.5594, 1.5673

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Technical analysis of EUR/CAD for July 14, 2015

The CAD fell to a 4-months low against the greenback at yesterday's sessionon the back of Greece's optimism and rospects for the Fed interest rate hike.

The cross has been making multiple tops at 1.4120, forming negative divergence in the daily chart. The same divergence we can observe in the USD/CAD H4 chart. In the H1 chart, the cross is moving towards lower high and lower low. The trend favors buying with sl 1.3870. The monthly support is found at 1.3780 and resistance is seen at 1.4365. The parallel resistance is seen at 1.4254 and 1.4320 100Wsma. A daily close above 1.4120 will let bulls aim for 1.4250 and 1.4320 in a day or two.

The intraday support is found at 1.4000 and 1.3970. Resistance is seen at 1.4030, 1.4060, and 1.4100. Strong buying momentum is expected above 1.4120 with targets at 1.4200 and 1.4250 initially. Intraday selling is available below 1.3990 towards 1.3970 and 1.3950.

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Technical analysis of USD/ CAD for July 14, 2015

General overview for 14/07/2015 10:45 CET:

As anticipated yesterday, the bullish triangle breakout is now in progress. The first three waves of the impulsive wave progression has been made and there are still two more to come. The first target is at the level of 1.2897. Please notice that any breakout below the intraday support at the level of 1.2725 would invalidate the recent impulsive count and the corrective cycle would evolve to more complex and time-consuming one.

Support/Resistance:

1.2897 - WR2

1.2802 - WR1

1.2725 - Intraday Support

1.2681 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders from yesterday should be still kept open; nevertheless, daytraders should consider opening more buy orders for intraday scalp if the level of 1.2805 is clearly violated (hourly candle close below this level), with SL just below the level of 1.2775 and TP at the level of 1.2897.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 14, 2015

General overview for 14/07/2015 10:30 CET:

As anticipated yesterday the market moved lower to complete the corrective cycle. Currently, the most important level on chart is intraday support at the level of 135.10 because any breakout lower would invalidate the alternative count and made the top for the wave a green at the level of 137.78. The market is still trading around the weekly pivot level just in the middle of the neutral zone. No decision has been made by the market yet and patience is required.

Support/Resistance:

138.50 - WR1

138.10 - Technical Resistance

137.78 - Intraday Resistance

135.92 - Weekly Pivot

135.10 - Intraday Support

134.54 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders for intraday scalp only if the level of 135.08 is clearly violated (hourly candle close below this level), with SL just above the level of 1.35.10 and TP at the level of 134.54.

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Forecast of USD/CAD for July 14, 2015

The CAD fell to a 4-month low against the greenback at yesterday's session on Geece's optimism and hopes for the Fed's rate hike.

Today traders eye US retail data. In case June's retail sales come out positive, the greenback is likely to get extra boost.

The upcoming BOC interest rate is the other major factor gaining attention followed by Canada's inflation. We expect the BOC to cut the interest rate. In case this happens, the USD/CAD pair will gain another 250 pips higher.

USD/CAD- The pair has been facing strong resistance at 1.2800. In case of a daily close above 1.2835, the pair is likely to touch 1.3060 immediately. The strong multi-resistance is expected between 1.2980 and 1.3060. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2805. Fresh buying is available above 1.2780 with targets at 1.2800, 1.2810, and risky 1.2830. Strong buying momentum is expected above 1.2840 towards 1.2900 and 1.2950 . In case of a daily close above 1.2850, bulls will aim for 1.2980 and 1.3050. Intraday support is found at 1.2720 and 1.2700. If the pair fails to breach 1.2810, bears will head towards 1.2700 and 1.2675 ahead of the major events. In the four-hour chart, we can observe negative divergence.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 14, 2015

Fed's interest rate hike is back in the limelight. The greenback is well supported by traders who hope the hike will take place again. The cable fell at yesterday's session on the back of Greece's optimism.

Today's events: Owing to the lack of macroeconomic data, it is understandably a quiet day on the markets. Yesterday, the British pound showed its dependence on the greenback. Things should pick up rapidly from today. We have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to, starting with the UK CPI. Besides, US retail data is due. We expect the inflation to remain steady or weak.

Technical view: The cable managed to breach the 200Dema at yesterday's session, but rejected and lost 100 pips getting away from its daily highs. The weekly support is found at 1.5430 and resistance is seen at 1.5600. Until the cable closes below 1.5600, bears are likely to re-test 1.5430 initially and extend towards 1.5360 and even further lower later. The 20Wsma is found at 1.5270. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.5270 and 1.5600.

The intraday support is found at 1.5460 and 1.5440. Resistance is seen at 1.5500, 1.5535, and 1.5550. The cable has been moving towards lower lows and lower highs in the four-hour chart. At yesterday's session, the cable rejected at descending upper trendline.

Intraday selling is available below 1.5430 towards 1.5400, 1.5370, and 1.5350. Buying is available above 1.5520 with a target at 1.5550, strong momentum is expected above 1.5560 towards 1.5590, 1.5620, and 1.5650.

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Forecast of EUR/USD for July 14, 2015

Greece's optimism resulted in the euro sell-offs. It fell by almost 200 pips from an intraday high. Fed's interest rate hike is back in the limelight. The greenback is well supported by traders who hope the hike will take place again.

Today, traders eye German ZEW economic sentiment. As usually, we expect negative readings. Besides, US retail sales data is due. In case June's retail sales come out positive, the greenback is likely to get extra boost.

The pair rejected at 100Dema (1.1225) again falling below 100Dsma. At yesterday's session the pair lost 20 and 50Dsma and 100Dema. Today, the pair opened below the 100Dema trading at 1.0000. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1020.

The weekly resistance is seen at 1.1035, 1.1095, and 1.1125. Until the pair closes below 1.1125, use every rise to sell towards 1.0720 and even 1.0500. Earlier, the pair made a double top at 1.1465; later 1.1225 is the new cap.

The intraday support is found at 1.0990 and 1.0970. Intraday selling is advised below 1.0970 towards 1.0950, 1.0920, and 1.0900. Strong selling emerges below 1.0890 towards 1.0850 initially. A bearish wave is expected to expand towards 1.0720. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1035, 1.1050, and 1.1100.

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USDX technical analysis for July 14, 2015

The US Dollar Index is heading towards higher highs and higher lows since mid-June. All pullbacks reached the 61.8% retracement levels and buyers stepped in and pushed the index higher. The rend remains bullish and the reversal from 93.50 looks like is a new upward move that will bring the index to new highs. This is the most probable scenario as long as we hold above 95.40.

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The US Dollar Index is above the cloud support. The index is moving higher in an impulsive pattern and each pullback reaches the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and reverses higher. This pattern promises much more upside specially if we break above the recent highs at 97.20.

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Blue line - medium-term trend line resistance

The weekly chart has clearly broken above the medium-term trendline after testing it at 95.40. The most probable scenario now is the resumption of the up trend as long as we hold above 95.40. Otherwise, if we see a downward reversal, we should expect 93.50 to be challenged and, why not, see a deep decline towards 90.50.

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Gold technical analysis for July 14, 2015

Gold price remains in a bearish trend despite bulls' attempt to make a bounce higher. Bulls remain weak and can not hit a higher high. A trend is bearish and I believe that once we break below $1,130, we will see a small sell-off towards $1,000. Very important long-term support is found in the area of $1,130-$1,150.

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Red line - horizontal resistance

Blue line - downward sloping resistance

Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and the blue trend-line resistance. The redline that was once support is now resistance. The price got rejected in all three resistance indicators confirming that the trend is bearish. Th e short-term trend will change to bullish if we see a break above $1,167. Support is at $1,147.

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Blue line - long-term trend line support

The weekly chart remains bearish. This week's candle confirms the bearish trend for now as it is trying to break below the long-term trend-line support that connects the major lows from last year. The price is below the tenkan- and kijun-sen. I believe that a weekly close below $1,140 will increase selling pressures and finally push ie towards our long-term target at $1,000.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 14, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair nosedived by 130 pips on Monday, resulting in an existing Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The support line at 1.1000 is currently under siege. It risks brakeout to the downside. Should that happen, the next target would be the support line at 1.0950 (which was tested last week). It could be difficult for the price to close below that support line.

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USD/CHF: It would normally be expected that the USD/CHF pair shall go in direction opposite to EUR/USD (hence the rally on Monday). However, the resistance level at 0.9500 has been reached and it is the level where bulls found it impossible to push the price further northwards last week and the week before the last week. If bulls find that resistance level difficult to be broken this week, a bearish correction is likely to take place.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument continues to be volatile in the context of a downtrend. The downtrend cannot be over until the distribution territory at 1.5650 is breached to the upside. Until then, any rallies in the market could be short-selling opportunities.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair rallied by100 pips on Monday, testing the supply level at 123.50. There is now a 'buy' signal in the market and the price may eventually test the supply level at 124.00. For the bullish signal to continue to be valid the price would also need to test the supply level at 125.00 this week; otherwise the risk of a bearish correction would be high.

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EUR/JPY: Would the price go upwards or downwards? Time would tell. It would be great to stay away from the cross until a clear directional bias is confirmed.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 14 - 2015

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Technical summary:

We are still looking for a new minor low of 1.6425 and for a new strong rally higher to 1.7154. In the short term, a break above minor resistance at 1.6525 and more importantly above 1.6614 will trigger an expected rally to above 1.6683 for a rally towards 1.7154.

A series of waves one and two seems to have developed and this should build up enough energy for a pretty strong series of waves three and four once the bottom of blue wave ii is found. The only demand we have is support at 1.6329, which stays intact otherwise this short-term count will have to be altered.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6588 with stop placed at 1.6300. If you are not long EUR yet, buy on a break above 1.6525 and place your stop at 1.6400.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 14 - 2015

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Technical summary:

A correction in wave ii has turned into expanded flat, which calls for a decline to just below 135.45 in wave c of ii before an extended rally higher to at least 141.52 takes over as wave iii develops.

In the short term, we are looking for a decline to just below 135.45 in order to close at 135.00 before the next strong rally higher to the level of 141.52 and even higher to 143.07. Only an unexpected break below 133.07 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.07 with stop placed at 134.25. If you are not long EUR yet, buy near 135.00 with the same stop at 134.25.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 14, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on ECOFIN Meetings, Industrial Production m/m, ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, and German Final CPI m/m is due. The US will publish data about Business Inventories m/m, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1036.

Strong Resistance:1.1030.

Original Resistance: 1.1019.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1008.

Target Inner Area: 1.0958.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0958.

Original Support: 1.0947.

Strong Support: 1.0936.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0930.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 14, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release any data today, but the US is expected to unveil figures for Business Inventories m/m, Import Prices m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.22.

Resistance. 2: 123.97.

Resistance. 1: 123.73.

Support. 1: 123.44.

Support. 2: 123.20.

Support. 3: 122.96.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 14, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold dropped to the level of $1,150.00 yesterday before pulling back higher again. It looks like the metal formed an up Gartley. Now, we expected it to rally towards $1,175.00 and higher respectively. If bulls remain in control, prices should stay above $1,150.00 and subsequently $1,145.00. It is hence recommended to initiate 50% long positions now, with risk at the level of $1,143.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,145.00/46.00 followed by $1,140.00/43.00 and lower. Resistance is seen at the levels of $1,175.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate 50% long positions now, stop is at $1,143.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 14, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver remains virtually unchanged from yesterday. It is trading at the level of $15.43 at the moment. The metal could still drop lower to the levels of $15.15/18, before resuming its rally towards $16.40/50 and higher respectively. Please also note that the levels of $15.15/18 are also fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $14.66 and $15.88 respectively. It is recommended to initiate fresh long positions around $15.20 on a bounce, with risk at $14.25 respectively. Immediate support is seen at the levels of $14.50/60 followed by $14.25 and lower while resistance is seen at the levels of $16.40/50 followed by $17.20 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long and also add fresh positions around $15.15/20 levels, stop is at $14.25, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 14, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around 135.90 at the moment. It is already on its way towards 140.00 and higher respectively. Any further pullbacks from here should remain well supported ahead of 134.50. It is hence recommended to remain long for now and also look for an opportunity to add further positions on dips, with risk at the level of 133.00. Immediate support is seen at 133.00, followed by 131.30/50 and lower, while resistance is seen at 139.00 followed by 140.00, 141.00, and higher respectively. Intraday dips should be gained until prices stay ahead of 133.00 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 14, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair rose through the levels of 1.4730/50 and also taken out the initial interim resistance at 1.4725 now. The pair might complete retracement at fibonacci 0.50 levels around the level of 1.4460 and has resumed its rally towards fresh swing highs. Any pullbacks from the current levels should be well supported around the levels 1.4500/25. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now and look for an opportunity to make a pullback towards 1.4500. Immediate support is seen at 1.4475 (interim) followed by 1.4400, 1.4250, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4830 respectively.

Trading Recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 14, 2015

On the daily chart, The USDX continues to trade in favor of the long side, because the Index is trading above the support level of 96.57, looking now for the resistance zone around 97.57. However, be cautious with the current supply territory, which is located there, as the USDX could perform a strong pullback when at 97.57.

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The Index is now forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 96.72, looking for an opportunity to break out above the resistance level of 96.86. In case of success, it would be expected to test the level 97.08. The current bullish momentum which is taking place above the 200 SMA in the H1 chart. The MACD indicator is overbought.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57

Daily chart's support levels: 95.74 / 94.66

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.38 / 96.65

H1 chart's support levels: 96.13 / 95.89

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.86, take profit is at 97.08, and stop loss is at 96.64.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 14, 2015

GBP/USD made an important pullback at the resistance level of 1.5543, which could be the first step towards a lower low in the daily chart. Also, we should expect a breakout at the support level of 1.5450, with a target placed around the zone of 1.5327. The MACD indicator remains at negative territory supporting our short-term bearish outlook, but be cautious with possible trend-changes.

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On the H1 chart, GBP/USD was rejected by the price zone above the 200 SMA and now it's looking to test the support level of 1.5458. Now, the near-term target is placed at the downside, around the support level of 1.5458. If the pair manage to brake that level, it would be expected to test the level of 1.5412 very soon.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5543 / 1.5640

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5450 / 1.5327

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5524 / 1.5596

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5458 / 1.5412

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5458, take profit is at 1.5412, and stop loss is at 1.5501.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 13, 2015

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Overview:

On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom (which initiated the ongoing bullish swing) was reached.

A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800 which offered few valid sell entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900.

Significant bearish rejection was expressed around the zone of 1.5900-1.5930. Since then, a major bearish swing has been taking place.

Recently, the level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) was obviously breached earlier this week due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

As suggested in previous articles, conservative traders should have waited for the recent bullish pullback towards 1.5550 for a low-risk SELL entry (it got triggered earlier today). S/L should be placed above the level of 1.5620.

On the other hand, the price levels of 1.5360 and 1.5250 are the nearest SUPPORT levels to meet the GBP/USD pair. Both should be watched for early signs of bullish rejection to exit our suggested SELL entry.

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Gold analysis for July 13, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,151.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe bullish bar in a volume below the average. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe a weak price action and lower volatility on the market. Selling still looks risky at this stage because of support at $1,146.00. There is a chance that the price will come back into our major trading rage between $1,162.00 and $1,231.00. The short-term trend is neutral.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,163.15

R2: 1,164.00

R3: 1,165.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,160.00

S2: 1,161.00

S3: 1,159.00

Trading recommendations: Indecision market. Be careful when selling around the level of $1,150.00 since we got support level around $1,146.00.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 13, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looks quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were reached within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend) for the USD/CAD pair. Bullish support was found around these levels. A bullish pullback took place shortly after.

The price zone of 1.2450-1.2500 (backside of the broken uptrend) provided temporary resistance. Shortly after, a daily candlestick closure below 1.2430 enhanced further bearish decline.

However, the previous weekly candlestick closed at 1.2270 when the USD/CAD pair needed a frank weekly closure below 1.2300 to ensure further bearish decline in the long term. This reflected a lack of bearish momentum.

That is why, an extensive bullish movement is currently being expressed on the chart. An overbought state is being manifested on the charts (temporary breaching of the upper limit of the weekly channel).

Persistence above the level of 1.2400 enhanced a quick bullish movement towards 1.2570 (the previous weekly closure level) and 1.2770, which has been tested since last Tuesday.

The price zone of 1.2740-1.2770 should be defended by bears (the upper limit of the weekly channel as well as 100% Fibonacci Expansion level of the most recent bullish move).

A valid sell entry can be offered around the current price levels. S/L should be placed slightly above 1.2850. Initial T/P levels are projected towards 1.2600 and 1.2530.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 13, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 850 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, the EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflect bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a bearish breakout of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term projection target is located at 0.9450.

However, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 may be executed only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached (considered a very low probability currently).

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After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (slightly below the depicted daily supply level).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1000 again where the uptrend comes to meet the EUR/USD pair (significant demand level depicted on the chart).

That is why, the current daily candlesticks should be monitored in order to clarify further direction. Bulls should keep defending their UPTREND/demand zone around 1.1000-1.0950.

EUR/USD bulls must keep trading above 1.1000, so further bullish advancement can be achieved. Initial bullish target would be located at 1.1150 and 1.1300 (a prominent supply level to be watched).

On the other hand, please note that a single bearish closure below 1.0980 hinders the ongoing bullish scenario enabling a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0700 to occur.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 13, 2015

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Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

Shortly after, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly key zone of 1.5500-1.5550 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

Last month, the market was pushed above this weekly key zone at 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900 (100% Fibonacci Expansion), which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. Temporary bearish breakdown below 1.5500 took place last week.

However, the resulting previous weekly candlestick indicates bullish rejection besides lack of strong bearish momentum below 1.5500.

Another WEEKLY candlestick closure above 1.5500 hinders further bearish decline. It allows a quick bullish pullback towards 1.5750 to occur shortly after.

On the other hand, the weekly demand level around 1.5200 becomes exposed only if the GBP/USD bears manage to push again below the price level of 1.5500.

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After a bearish breakout of the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel (roughly around 1.5500-1.5550), the market failed to gather enough bearish momentum towards the intraday demand level of 1.5100.

Significant bullish pressure was observed around 1.5200. Hence, a bullish swing was established towards 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.5880 (FE 100%).

Previously, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as a significant supply zone for the GBP/USD pair. It offered a valid sell entry last week. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level at 1.5550 previously constituted significant demand level (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top). However, it was broken down on Tuesday allowing further bearish decline.

As anticipated, demand level of 1.5375 provided significant bullish support for the pair. Hence, a bullish pullback is currently taking place towards 1.5550 (50% Fibonacci Level).

A valid SELL entry can be offered anywhere around 1.5550. S/L can be placed above 1.5615.

Initial T/P levels would be located at 1.5375 and 1.5280.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com