Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 23, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. Despite the recent rebound from 150.60, the pair is still capped by a declining 50-day moving average. The upside potential should be limited by the key resistance at 151.70. Even though a continuation of a technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. Therefore, as long as 151.70 is not surpassed, look for another drop with targets at 150.60 and 150.00 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.15, 152.50, and 153.05

Support levels: 150.60, 150.00, and 149.50.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 23, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit, NZD/USD is still under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair is holding on the downside and is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index below its neutrality level at 50. Hence, as long as 0.7195 is not surpassed, look for a drop with targets at 0.7120 and 0.7100 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7210, 0.7230, and 0.7275

Support levels: 0.7120, 0.7100, and 0.7060.

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 23, 2018

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Overview

Gold is trading downwards steeply to attack 1,331.00 level and is moving below it now. This opens the way to continue the bearish bias for the rest of the day, activating the bearish scenario on the intraday basis. 1,316.48 is most likely to be tested. Therefore, the bearish trend remains valid for the upcoming sessions unless the price manages to breach 1,335.40 level and holds above it again. The expected trading range for today is between 1,320.00 support and 1,350.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 23, 2018

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Overview

Silver is still trading quietly with a downward bias on its way to test 16.56 level. As long as the price is holding above this level, our bullish overview remains valid, supported by the EMA50. Please note that breaching 17.43 is required to push the price towards 18.30 that represents our next main target. The expected trading range for today is between 16.80 support and 17.43 resistance.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 23, 2018

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Global macro overview for 23/04/2018

The PMI indicator has traditionally been recognized as an important measure of the economic condition of a given country. It gives (in points) something that can be described as the mood of managers. The managers of large enterprises answer questions about planned production, employment or orders. It is assumed that these plans reflect their view of the economy: the more it is worth developing a business and risking the better the whole country. Of course, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent, but there are no perfect indicators. Either way, when the PMI has more than 50 points, the result is considered good, testifying to the advantage of optimists. The PMI data below the 50 level means deterioration in economic expansion.

Better readings in the PMI indexes from France and Germany have built up an appetite for positive surprises in the indicators for the entire Eurozone. Although the business service activity index increased to 55 from 54.9 (versus 54.6 expected), the industry PMI dropped to 56 from 56.6 (versus 56.1 expected). This is the lowest reading in 14 months. In the statement, there is a note, that says the strong EUR weakens export demand and, according to the assessment of companies, economic growth may slow down in the coming months.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The PMI data does not help the EUR/USD and the market slides below the technical support at the level of 1.2238 and makes a new marginal low at 1.2222 as it approaches the technical support at the level of 1.2215. The key technical support is still seen at the level of 1.2154 and the bias remains neutral (horizontal consolidation continuation).

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 23, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.4122. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.4122 (this level of 1.4122 coincides with the major resistance) to the bottom around 1.3965. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.4043 followed by 1.4122, while daily support 1 is found at 1.3868. Also, the level of 1.3965 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the GBP/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.4043 towards the first support level at 1.3868 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.3868, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.3789 in coming days. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.4122, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Global macro overview for 23/04/2018

For the last months, the market has been dominated by the conviction that the US Dollar has many reasons to be weaker and yet since February, this pessimistic approach cannot find confirmation in the dollar index behavior. The Friday surprising US government bond yields give the dollar a fresh boost, and the investors' reluctance to pay back the dollar is a tough test.

The relationship of the dollar with the interest rates on US Treasury bonds has been going through difficult times in recent months. For a long time, higher yields were supportive for the currency, as they meant an increase in expectations for monetary tightening of the Fed. At the end of last year, this changed when the increase in interest rate meant the sale of bonds by investors wishing to return to the European market (earlier they were "chased" by the ECB's QE policy). The worries about the US's swelling debt after recent fiscal reforms were also unforgiving. The dollar was also burdened with a premium for geopolitical risk in connection with Donald Trump's online disputes with North Korea and China, but on these fronts, the information message has been significantly improved. There is also a discussion about what the Fed will do and the vision of four increases in 2018 is not ridiculous. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the market to insist on its pessimistic assessment of the dollar and we can be on the verge of a significant change.

Let's now take look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break through the technical resistance at the level of 90.59 and it looks like the price is going to test the level of 90.98 formed at the end of February this year.The momentum is strong and points to the north, but the stochastic is showing a somewhat overbought market condition. The price behavior at the level of 90.98 will be very important to market participants and might give more clues about the future market movements.

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Trading plan 04/23/2018

Trading plan 04/23/2018

The overall picture: the turn towards the dollar.

The week closed against the backdrop of the dollar strengthening.

The given statement by the head of the Bank of England is important saying that the Bank of England rate hike will probably be postponed.

The pound is under pressure and within the range.

Selling the pair is suggested from 1.4180.

Selling the pair is suggested from 1.3700.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 23, 2018

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair is bullish in the near term, but the bullishness in the market is very weak. Price did almost nothing last week, save some consolidating movement throughout the week. The consolidation may continue this week, but a breakout is imminent, which would most probably favor bears.

Thus, the demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 could be reached, which may effectively challenge the recent bullishness in the market. It is expected that further southward movement would play itself out this week, because the outlook on JPY pairs is somewhat bearish for the week.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 23, 2018

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is bearish in the long term, and bullish in the short term. After price rammed into the demand level at 105.00 on March 23, it has gone upwards by 280 pips since then. Price closed above the demand level at 107.50 on Friday and it may even reach the supply levels at 108.00 and 108.50 this week....

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Before the anticipated reversal occurs, price could go upwards a little bit. The reversal may be strong enough to take price towards the demand level at 107.50. Yes, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 23, 2018

USD/CHF

This pair has been going upwards. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market was partly brought about by the anticipated stamina in Greenback. Since testing the support level at 0.9200 on February 16, the price has gained 550 pips (gaining 220 pips in this month alone), closing around the resistance level at 0.9750 on Friday.

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This is a bull market and it is good for long trades. The price should continue going further upwards as EUR/USD is pushed further southwards. The resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850 are the targets for this week.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 23, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains recently after bouncing off the 1.24 price area with a daily close. After certain consolidations previously, the positive economic reports of USD helped the currency to gain momentum over EUR, ahead of the upcoming EUR Minimum Bid Rate report to be published this week. Though the rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.0% but along with ECB Press Conference the market is expected to be quite volatile before the weekly close. Today, EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 53.4 as expected from the previous figure of 53.7, French Flash Services PMI was published with an increase to 57.4 from the previous figure of 56.9, which was expected to decrease to 56.6, German Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published better than expected, but with a slight decrease to 58.1 from the previous figure of 58.2, which was expected to decrease to 57.6, and German Flash Services PMI report was published with a slight increase to 54.1, which was expected to be unchanged at 53.9. Moreover, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 56.0, which was expected to be unchanged at 56.6, and Flash Services PMI report was published with a slight increase to 55.0 from the previous figure of 54.9, which was expected to decrease to 54.8. On the other hand, ahead of the upcoming CB Consumer Confidence and Advance GDP report to be published this week, which is expected to inject volatility in the market, today, USD Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published, which is expected to have a slight decrease to 55.2 from the previous figure of 55.6, Flash Services PMI is expected to increase to 54.3 from the previous figure of 54.0, and Existing Home Sales report is expected to have a slight increase to 5.55M from the previous figure of 5.54M. As of the current scenario, EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports, which did not help the currency to gain momentum against the USD impulsive bearish pressure today. Ahead of the upcoming economic reports to be published on the USD side, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair for the coming days of the week, whereas certain volatility is expected on the ECB Press Conference and EURO Minimum Bid Rate report publish period.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently impulsive with the bearish gains below the 1.23 price area which is expected to proceed towards the 1.2160 support area in the coming days. There was a gap in the market today, during the open which was retested before proceeding lower with the impulsive pressure. As the price remains below the 1.2350 area with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected to continue.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 23, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8.982 and reached first objective target. The current president and chief executive officer of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, and the man expected to soon be the New York Federal Reserve Bank, John Williams, has rejected the suggestion that cryptocurrencies comprise currency. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time – frame, I found that price reached first objective target (resistance) at the level of $8.970. Anyway, watch for potential breakout of resistance to confirm further upward continuation. The upward targets are set at the price of $9.805 and final target at the price of $11.600.

Support/Resistance

$8.970 – Intraday resistance

$8.724– Intraday support

$9.805– Objective target 1

$11.600 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for April 23, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,329.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a breakout of the upward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a very consistent supply, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,342.20, $1,319.80 and at the price of $1,305.20.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,342.90

R2: $1,350.27

R3: $1,354.25

Support levels:

S1: $1,331.58

S2: $1,327.61

S3: $1,320.25

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 23, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3984. According to the M15 time – frame, I found a successful breakout of the upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a strong downward pressure in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3967 and at the price of 1.3865.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4064

R2: 1.4120

R3: 1.4150

Support levels:

S1: 1.3978

S2: 1.3950

S3: 1.3890

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 23, 2018

The Dollar index is challenging important resistance. Price has broken above the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud and the first step for a bigger bounce towards 91.70 has been made. Bulls will now need to break above the April high and at the same time break above the triangle pattern.

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Black lines - triangle pattern

The Dollar index has given a bullish signal by breaking above the Ichimoku cloud. Price is now challenging the resistance of the upper triangle boundary. A break above the triangle will open the way for our first bullish target of 91.70. Support is at 89.50 by the lower cloud boundary and by the lower triangle boundary. I'm bullish Dollar as long as the index is above that level.

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Bitcoin analysis for 24/04/2018

The Supreme Court of Russia ordered the City of St. Petersburg to examine the reference to the ban on the information site regarding the cryptocurrency of the Russian Legal Information Agency (RAPSI). In the summer of 2016, the District Court in St. Petersburg for the District of Vyborgsky recognized the request of the prosecutor's office and blocked the site bitcoininfo.ru. The court ruled that the information on the Bitcoin digital currency website, which represents "a virtual payment instrument and a means of storing value", violates the federal law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation".

In July 2017, the District Court in St. Petersburg for the Oktyabrsky district ordered the blocking of 40 websites containing information on crypto accounts, claiming that they contribute to the development of shadow economy, and the free distribution of information about the digital currency causes "high use of cryptocurrencies in drug trafficking, weapons, false documents, and other criminal activities." In March 2018, the court of the City of St. Petersburg examined the appeal and issued a decision ordering the unblocking of websites.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made the correction of the wave (2)/b sooner than expected and it was much lower in price and time than anticipated. Nevertheless, the target for the price, which was projected at the level of $9,126 - $9,222, is about to be hit. Then the market will likely enter another corrective cycle down and might test the level of $8,355 from above. The growing bearish divergence supports the short-term corrective outlook for this market.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for April 23, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

In general, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during last week's consolidations.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Trading plan for 23/04/2018

Yields of US government bonds are maintaining levels after Friday's rally, which supports USD. Moving on risky assets results in mixed stock market behavior and weakness of commodities, although news related to North Korea and US-China relations are positive. On the Asian stock market, minor declines on the main trading floors: Nikkei -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.6%.

On Monday 23rd of April, the event calendar looks busy with the Eurozone Flash PMI Manufacturing and Services data releases, German Buba Monthly Report, Canadian Wholesale Sales data and Existing Home Sales data from the US. Moreover, there is a speech from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz scheduled later in the day.

EUR/USD analysis for 23/04/2018:

A bunch of interesting data was released over the weekend. North Korea announced on Saturday that it intends to suspend the missile program and nuclear tests, which is probably related to the upcoming summit with South Korea (27 April) and the meeting with the USA (the turn of May and June). US Secretary of the Treasury S. Mnuchin is considering a visit to China regarding a trade conflict, but he is "cautiously optimistic" that the agreement will be reached.

On late Friday, information from sources related to the ECB came to the market. According to reports, the latest series of weaker data from the Eurozone does not signal a breakdown in the path of growth and should not affect the ECB's plans to normalize the policy. The members of the Governing Council continue to strive to end the QE program by the end of the year and see the first rate hike in the second quarter of 2019.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Today. the biggest impact on the rate change might have the Eurozone Flash PMI Manufacturing and Services data releases, which are expected to be slightly lower than a month ago. The EUR/USD reacted negatively on the Friday ECB statements, so the breakout attempt above the level of 1.2413 failed. The price reversed and broke through the supports at 1.2346 and 1.2290 with a low at the level of 1.2248. The market is clearly oversold now and the price might try to move a little bit higher, although it will probably remain within the horizontal range between the levels of 1.2215 - 1.2298. Please notice the triangle technical pattern is forming at this time frame ( continuation pattern), which suggest a possible move upward soon.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 23, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the depicted uptrend remains broken to the downside.

The depicted Multiple-Top pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis. Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

Trade Recommendation:

Short-term traders can wait for a pullback towards (1.2315) to have a SELL trade. S/L should be placed just above Yesterday's high (1.2365). T/P levels to be located around 1.2195 and 1.2080.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 23, 2018

Gold price is challenging important Daily support at $1,333-28. Short-term trend is bearish as price has broken below the 4hour cloud. Gold price has seen multiple rejection at $1,355-65 area and every attempt to break the long-term resistance has been met with selling pressures and price reversals. Bulls continue to hope for a bullish break out to $1,400 as long as we trade above $1,300.

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Mgenta line- long-term resistance

Gold price has Daily cloud support at $1,333-28. Break below it and we will test the $1,300 lows from March. The multiple rejections and failed attempts to break above the long-term resistance tell me that we should expect more selling pressures to come for Gold. I remain bearish as long as we are below $1,365. Most bullish traders have their stops placed at $1,300. So a break below that level is expected to give a big push lower to Gold price even towards $1,260.

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Growth of the dollar? Everything is not so obvious

The US dollar finished the week with growth, but the demand for it was circumstantial and was caused by the outcome of investors from China against the growing threat of a full-fledged trade war.

We have repeatedly noted that the strengthening of the dollar is important only in terms of supporting the stability of the global financial system. As for the US economy, a strong dollar for it at this stage is highly undesirable.

The Committee on the Budget of the US Congress (CBO) published in April the next update of the budget and economic forecast for the next decade, taking into account the changes caused by the start of the tax reform. The conclusions of the NWO are very unpleasant - in an optimistic scenario, the accumulated budget deficit will amount to 12.4 trillion, the annual deficit will be twice the average for the last 50 years, and the federal debt will grow to 96.2%.

In this scenario, the assumption is that the increase in taxes and the reduction in costs will occur in accordance with the calculations. If these changes do not occur, then we should expect the growth of the national debt to 105%, and the aggregate deficit - up to 15 trillion.

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Thus, even in an optimistic scenario, the budget deficit will increase at a record pace, as the growth rate of spending will exceed revenue growth for the next 10 years - such a scenario is incorporated in the tax reform.

The US is trying to influence the trade balance in a number of ways in which the right direction is for itself, there is a rapidly growing rate of trade protectionism, which began with President Trump.

The attempt to shift some of the responsibility for the inflated level of consumption to their trading partners causes quite obvious opposition. First washing machines, then oil and aluminum, and now the trade war came in a high-tech sector. Two months ago, the United States restricted access of Huawei and ZTE products to the US market, and last week, it completely banned US companies of cooperation with ZTE, effectively imposing sanctions on China under the Russian scenario. China in response, informs the American side about the possibility of prohibiting sales in China of Apple products. Evidently the escalation of unilateral steps will lead to the destruction of patent law and the total trade war of all with all.

We have already noted that the US, in fact, has no other choice but to support a weak dollar, as the growth of the trade-weighted dollar (TWI) rate will inevitably lead to an increase in the trade balance deficit. With such trends, there is no hope of curbing the growth of the budget deficit, but there are other reasons.

According to the IMF forecast, which is confirmed by a number of large banks, global production this year will slow down rapidly.

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In the coming quarters, the slowdown in the global business cycle is expected, which will be strengthened by the Fed's policy and at the same time mitigated by Trump's tax reform. The slowdown in global growth will lead to a weakening of real wage growth rate, adding that tightening credit conditions and the risk of escalating a full-fledged trade war is beginning to look almost inevitable, as the battle for markets will become even more fierce.

Thus, a number of fundamental factors objectively contribute to the growth of the dollar index. Comments of Fed officials are mostly hawkish, the market is confident in at least two rate hikes in June and September, that is, the Fed will continue to adhere to its plan, which inevitably contributes to tightening of lending conditions and demand for the dollar. This process will be handled by means of forceful methods, aimed at shifting part of the costs to the shoulders of most US trading partners.

Macroeconomic statistics this week will be of little significance, and until Friday will not have a noticeable impact on the dollar. On Monday and Tuesday, data on the housing market will be published in March, on Thursday - a report on orders for durable goods, which may come out worse than expected amid a slowdown in production activity. On Friday, preliminary data on the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be released as well as personal spending. The latter factor will be regarded by the market as the main one, yielding worse expectations will contribute to the depreciation of the dollar.

This week, we should expect an increase in demand for safe haven assets, primarily for the Japanese yen. Slower growth in the cost of oil and a decrease in the flow of capital to the stock markets will contribute to heightened tensions, which may lead to a slowdown in the growth of Treasury yields.

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Burning forecast 04/23/2018

Burning forecast 04/23/2018

EURUSD: There is a signal to decline.

Closure of the day below 1.2295 gives a signal to decline.

Sell from 1.2295, stop at 1.2340, the profit is at 1.2000.

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