Daily analysis of USD/JPY for September 28, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair attempted to breach the sideways range resistance at 112.80 but without managing to hold above it, which keeps the domination of the sideways trading valid until now between the mentioned resistance and 111.75 support, waiting to breach one of these levels to manage to detect the next destination clearly. We remind you that breaching 112.80 will lead the price to continue rising and visit the previously recorded top at 114.49 as a next main target, while breaking 111.75 support will put the price under the negative pressure again, to start the negative targets at 110.90 and extend to 110.06. The expected trading range for today is between 111.75 support and 113.70 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 28, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair repeated its fluctuation above 150.00 level that forms one of the support levels that agree with the bullish bias domination, and the price needs new positive momentum to ease rallying above 152.80 level and opens the way to record new positive targets by reaching 155.40 followed by 156.60. We notice stochastic attempt to form new bullish wave to wait to rally above 50 level and allow the price to gain the required momentum to start recording our waited targets. The expected trading range for today is between 150.00 and 152.80.

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Daily analysis of Gold for September 28, 2017

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Overview

Gold price succeeded to touch our projected target at $1,281.17 and settled there, while the bearish channel keeps putting pressure on the price supported by the EMA50. This makes us suggest a further bearish bias in the upcoming sessions to break the mentioned level followed by opening the way to extend the bearish wave to reach $1,263.15. Therefore, the bearish trend will remain dominant on the intraday and short-term basis unless the price breached $1,299.20 level and holds above it. This breach represents the first positive target to stop the current negative pressure and return to the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between $1,270.00 support and $1,295.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 28, 2017

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Overview

Silver price is showing slight negative trading, crawling calmly towards our downward target at 16.56. The EMA50 continues to push pressure on the price. So, the chances are valid that the pair is going with the decline today. Note that breaking the targeted level will push the price to incur more losses and visit 15.49 areas on the near-term basis. On the other hand, breaching 17.43 represents positive factor that will push the price to resume the bullish bias again. The upward targets are seen at 18.30 and further at 19.38. The expected trading range for today is between 16.56 support and 16.90 resistance.

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Analysis of Gold for September 28, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,277.70. According to the 4H time frame, I found a broken swing low at the price of $1,288.80, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a fake breakout of downward channel, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,272.10 and $1,250.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,290.60

R2: $1,293.00

R3: $1,297.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,283.80

S2: $1,279.50

S3: $1,276.90

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for September 28, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1784. According to the 15M time frame, I found a broken rising wedge, which is a sign that buying EUR/USD at this stage looks risky. There is also a hidden bearish divergence, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1750 and 1.1723.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1790

R2: 1.1835

R3: 1.1870

Support levels:

S1: 1.1710

S2: 1.1675

S3: 1.1630

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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The dollar returns to the trajectory of growth

The administration of Donald Trump presented the long-awaited tax reform plan. The new tax collection structure is designed to dramatically reduce the fiscal burden on business and households and, in the long term, contribute to economic growth. In particular, it is planned to reduce the profit rate from 35% to 20%, introduce a new rate for companies "pass-through businesses" of 25%, and reduce the tax burden "for the rich" from 39.6% to 35%.

In addition, the plan provides for such measures as the cancellation of the tax on the inheritance of the family business, the accelerated depreciation of capital investments and the change in the principle of levying taxes from the international to the territorial. These measures, as the White House hopes, will lead to an accelerated repatriation of capital.

At the same time, the plan does not contain calculations to assess the effectiveness of new measures and therefore is just a call for a broad discussion in Congress. Accordingly, the sharp demand for the dollar on Wednesday may turn out to be temporary.

Eurozone

Ifo index, reflecting the state of the business climate, declined in September to 115.2p against 115.7p a month earlier, experts expected small growth. A decrease in the index may indicate that the impulse of activity in the eurozone is slowing, which in turn can serve as a signal for a respite in the euro rally.

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ECB spokesman Kere said that the bank was not at all "scared" by the need to roll back the asset repurchase program but intends to carry out this process with caution. ECB President Mario Draghi confirmed on Monday the policy of gradual curtailment of the program, emphasizing that it is necessary to strengthen inflation along with economic recovery and therefore monetary regulation remains in demand to a large extent.

The ECB is trying to bring down the wave of demand for the euro and it seems that he succeeds. Along with the revival of bulls in the dollar, we can expect that the correction will continue, a decrease to 1.16 remains a priority scenario in the short term.

United Kingdom

In view of the lack of significant macroeconomic and political news, the pound took a short breather. The incoming signals are contradictory, the probability of an increase in the rate by the Bank of England remains the dominant idea and plays in favor of bulls but the momentum to growth has clearly slowed.

In favor of the fact that BoE will raise the rate in November, shows an unexpectedly high growth in retail sales. According to the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI), the retail trade index rose sharply in September to + 42p against -10p in August. It is expected that in October, the strengthening of retail will continue which indicates a high consumer activity and growing inflationary pressures.

At the same time, the volume of consumer lending grew at the slowest pace in at least 5 months in August, growth was 1.5% against 1.9% in July, weak growth reflects the fears of households regarding the financial future.

The pound is likely to continue its technical decline to support 1.2920 / 90. To resume growth, a new driver is needed, which can be a good report on consumer and mortgage lending in August, which will be published on Friday.

Oil and ruble

Oil prices have renewed a two-year high due to fears of a lack of supply amid the global economic recovery. The trend has all chances to get development because the "Trump factor" enters into force, which will contribute to the growth of demand for energy.

Russia's GDP growth in August, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, increased to 2.3%, unemployment at historically low levels, inflation under control. There are no reasons for further weakening of the Russian currency, however, an expensive dollar can play its role. Nevertheless, the ruble forecast remains optimistic, there is no reason for a sharp collapse, the USD/RUR movement to the north will be moderate and slow down near the technical resistance of 58.20 / 58.70.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 28, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $4.262. South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT and Korea Communications Commission reportedly announced that they will conduct on-site inspections of cryptocurrency service providers including bitcoin exchanges. They will focus on the cybersecurity of these providers and their compliance with privacy laws. The Korea Communications Commission (KCC) plans to conduct on-the-spot checks on the implementation of technical and administrative safeguards for personal information pursuant to the Act on the Promotion of Information and Communication Network Utilization and Information Protection, and to strictly rectify any violations. Technical picture for today looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, I found broken upward channel in the background, which is sign that buying looks risky. There is also a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of $4.178 and hidden bearish divergence on the moving average osicaltor, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $3.880.

Support/Resistance

$4.262 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$4.178 – Fibonacci resistance (price action)

$4.140 – Intraday support (price action)

$3.880 –Objective downward target

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Trading Plan for Gold and Silver for September 28, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The yellow metal is preparing for a counter trend rally after printing fresh intraday lows at $1,277.69 levels today. The metal has rallied through $1,285.00 levels in the past 2 hours indicating a potential counter trend ahead. Looking at the wave structure since $1,357.00 levels, Gold has dropped lower into 5 waves labelled as 1 through 5 above. This indicates that the yellow metal has formed wave (1) of a higher degree or it has formed wave A of a much deeper correction A-B-C zigzag. The most probable wave count from here is a potential rally through at least $1,308.00/10.00 levels, which is fibonacci 0.382 resistance of the entire drop as shown here, or it could push higher through $1,327.00/30.00 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 resistance as seen here. Immediate price resistance is seen at $1,313.00 levels, while support is at $1,275.00 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Aggressive: Long now, stop below todays low, target $1,310.00 and $1,330.00

Conservative: Look to sell higher at $1,330.00 levels, stop above $1,358.00 targeting lower towards $1,250.00

Silver chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

Silver is also looking to produce a counter trend rally after having produced intraday lows at $16.67 levels today. The metal trades at $16.81 levels for now and is looking to push higher towards $17.30 and $17.60 levels which are fibonacci 0.386 and 0.618 resistances of the entire drop from $18.20 through $16.67 levels respectively. Looking into the wave structure, Silver has produced an impulse (5 waves) from $18.20 levels labelled as wave (1) or wave A. A minimum implication from here is that the metal should produce a 3 wave counter trend rally through $17.30/60 levels, before turning lower again. Looking at a larger degree, Silver is poised to drop in 5 waves labelled Waves (1) through (5) or into 3 waves labelled A-B-C. For now, it is highly probable that Silver rallies through resistance before turning lower again. Resistance is seen at $17.20/30 levels, while support is at $16.65 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Aggressive: Long now, stop at $16.40, target $17.30 and $17.60.

Conservative: Look to sell at $17.60, stop above $18.20 and target lower towards $16.00 at least.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for German Consumer Price Index and USD GDP figures to be out between 0800 AM and 0830 AM EST.

Good luck!

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 28, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 28, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action was watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If the current bearish breakout below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for September 28, 2017

EUR/GBP has recently broken below the resistance area of 0.8850-0.8950 with an impulsive bearish pressure. GBP has been quite dominant over EUR which still has greater chances of moving lower towards the support area of 0.8420-0.8550. Despite having mixed economic reports today EUR has gained momentum which is expected to retest the resistance area before it shows some bearish pressure in the future. Today, German GfK Consumer Climate report was published with a decreased figure to 10.8 from the previous figure of 10.9 which was expected to increase to 11.0 and Spanish Flash CPI report was published as expected at 1.8% which previously was at 1.6%. On the GBP side, today BOE Governor Carney is currently speaking about how the Bank of England independence will help to handle the Brexit pressure that has already pushed GBP up. Besides, Prime Minister May is having a speech about the Free Market economy for the Bank of England and she believes that it will help in the future growth of the economy. If the proposals are accepted by the BOE, GBP is expected to move lower impulsively in the future. To sum up, GBP is still quite strong fundamentally. In light of today's economic events, GBP is expected to gain much more strength against EUR in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the resistance area of 0.8850-0.8950 where the price is expected to retest again before proceeding down towards the 0.8550 support level in the coming days. If the price remains below the resistance area and dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Global macro overview for 28/09/2017

Global macro overview for 28/09/2017:

In a speech to mark the 20th anniversary of the independence of the Bank of England, British Prime Minister Theresa May has reiterated that there are benefits from an open and innovative economy – provided it is reformed and properly regulated: "A free-market economy, operating under the right rules and regulations, is the greatest agent of collective human progress ever created." Moreover, she said: "It was the new combination which led societies out of darkness and stagnation and into the light of the modern age. It is unquestionably the best, and indeed the only sustainable means of increasing the living standards of everyone in a country." Nevertheless, the living standards in the UK have decreased as a result of average wages failing to keep pace with the price increases caused by the fall in the value of the British Pound since the Brexit vote 15 months ago. The ongoing negotiations with the European Union representatives are not going that well as Theresa May anticipated. Even Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's nominal hawkish point of view towards the interest rates and general economic outlook has been recently subdued. In his speech today, he said, that the monetary policy cannot prevent weaker real income growth that will likely to accompany Brexit as UK economic prosperity will reflect final Brexit arrangements with the EU.

In conclusion, the none of this is good news for the British Pound as the option of failed negotiations and hard-Brexit is getting more real.This situation will in result decrease the UK living standard even more and might greatly influence the exchange rate of the Pound across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is still consolidating the gains in the horizontal zone between the levels of 149.72 - 152.82. Any breakout below 23%FIbo would directly expose the nearest support at the level of 147.59 for a test. As long as the market stays below the dashed black trend line, the short-term outlook is bearish to sideway.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 28, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The wave structure presented above is indicating that EUR/USD maybe topped out at 1.2092 levels and the triangle structure discussed earlier is no longer valid since prices have already broken below 1.1820 levels this week. There is greater possibility of wave 1 terminating at 1.1675 or it has already terminated at 1.1716 levels yesterday as labelled here. This leaves us with a clear option to sell on rallies through 1.1900/50 levels which is also fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the entire drop from 1.2092 through 1.1716 levels respectively. Bulls are not yet able to produce the counter trend rally required but selling on rallies should be a simple trade strategy going forward. Please note that immediate support is seen at 1.1675 levels while a meaningful resistance is at 1.2092 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please look to sell higher through 1.1900/50 levels, stop above 1.2092 and target is lower towards 1.1500 levels at least.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The wave structure presented here is that of the last 5 waves of potential wave C of a higher degree which would terminate into wave (4) of one higher degree before pushing lower towards the larger trend. As one can note, GBP/USD has carved out waves (1) through (4) as labelled here and might be preparing for a wave (5) push higher towards 1.3650/1.3700 levels before terminating into the higher degree wave (4) and reversing lower again. Besides, please note that the current wave (4) is terminating around the fibonacci 0.382 support of wave (3), a common guideline. Furthermore, the pair is producing a tweezer bottom candlestick pattern around 1.3340/70 levels, indicating a potential bullish reversal. On the other hand, if we presume that a top is in place at 1.3655 levels last week, then the pair should at least rally towards 1.3550 levels which is fibonacci resistance of the drop between 1.3655 through 1.3341 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Aggressive: Remain long with stop below todays low targeting 1.3550

Conservative: Look to sell higher around 1.3550/1.3600 levels, stop 1.3700 and higher target lower towards 1.2000

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German Consumer Price Index and USD GDP figures today between 08:00 and 08:30 AM EST for price volatility.

Good luck!

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for September 28, 2017

NZD/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently. The pair is currently trading under bearish pressure below the 0.7200 level. USD has been quite powerful in light of the latest positive economic reports which lead to further bearish pressure after certain correction along the way. Today the pair is quite volatile because at the beginning of the day New Zealand Cash Rate report was published alongside RBNZ Rate Statement. Today, NZ Cash rate report was published unchanged as expected at 1.75% and RBNZ is quite positive about the recent easing where lower NZD is expected to increase tradable inflation and deliver more balanced growth. On the USD side, today Quarterly Final GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.0%, Unemployment Claims is expected to rise to 269k from the previous figure of 259k, Final GDP Price Index is expected to be unchanged at 1.0%, Goods Trade Balance report is expected to show a slight change to -65.0B from the previous figure of -65.1B and Prelim Wholesale Inventories report is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.6%. Additionally, FOMC Member Fischer is going to speak today on the voting of upcoming interest rates decision and future monetary policy which is expected to be quite neutral in nature as the hike is expected to be on hold till December 2017. To sum up, NZD is in favor of much lower price against USD to balance the upcoming growth which does signal further bearish pressure in this pair and gains on the USD side taking the price towards much lower support level in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the 0.7200 resistance level which is expected to move much down towards 0.7050 level in the coming days. As the price remains below the 0.7200 and dynamic level of 20 EMA the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

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EUR/USD - The stop and consolidation is growing

EUR/USD - The stop and consolidation is growing.

The EUR/USD rate declines, but the movement down is exhaled.

On Wednesday, new strong data on the US economy came out: Orders for durable goods grew by + 5.1% over the forecast for the year.

Excluding transport, growth is even higher + 6.1% per year.

"Capital goods", that is investments. Growth is also strong + 3.6% for the year, and a revision of the previous one with an increase to + 3.6%.

This supported the dollar, but we see a slowdown in the decline of the euro even against the background of strong data on the dollar.

It should be understood that the decline in EUR/USD from 1.2100 to 1.1750 is so far only a correction to the previous multi-month growth.

It is very likely consolidation, fluctuation of the exchange rate in some new range.

A little bit about the US economy: It's clear, looking at the S & P500 index chart, that the main growth is already over.

However, for a reversal and a fall, a crisis in the real sector is needed.

Today at 13.30, the third reading of US GDP for the 2nd quarter.

Pay attention. Here, there is data on the average dynamics of profitability of companies (corporate profits). So, the average profit growth is + 8.1% for the year.

When the growth of the economy is exhausted, the profit levels do not grow, but fall. The profit itself is still growing, its total volume but the level of profitability is falling. While we are seeing growth.

That is, the US economy feels good and growing.

Let's return to the fate of EUR/USD. I do not think that we have a full turn down of the pair and a further drop to 1.0500 and lower. It is more likely that the decline will reach a maximum of 50% of the correction for growth. That is, up to 1.1300 approximately.

But, probably, below 1.1660 and we will not go.

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Global macro overview for 28/09/2017

Global macro overview for 28/09/2017:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75% as widely anticipated. In the Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ reiterated, that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. The decision was the first one made by Acting Governor Grant Spencer, who will be in the job for six months till a permanent replacement is found for Graeme Wheeler (whose term ended this week).

The statement was almost identical with the previous one, but it was widely expected by markets. There were some slight changes to the language around expectations on the NZD, with the statement this time around saying a lower valued dollar would "help", which was a change from the word "needed" used in the August statement. The other change is in RBNZ approach towards the economic projections, as they appear to be more cautious about growth prospects for the New Zealand economy, especially after the recent weakness in the construction sector.

In conclusion, the RBNZ become more cautious and neutral, as the monetary forecast has no rises in the OCR till late 2019 and there's nothing in the latest statement to suggest that view has changed.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the decision was made. The market did not manage to break out above the golden trend line and dipped again towards the technical support at the level of 0.7166. Currently, the price is recovering slowly from this level, but it is still under the golden trend line resistance. In a case of a breakout lower, the next support is seen at the level of 0.7131.

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Bitcoin analysis for 28/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 28/09/2017:

Banks in Japan are considering setting up their own digital currency called J-Coin. The main task of J-Coin is to eliminate cash as a payment option. The implementation of the cryptocurrency is planned for the period ahead of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. The whole project is supported by financial supervisors and aims to improve the financial system in Japan. J-Coin is supposed to act in synergy with Yen, not replace it. Coins are to be exchanged in a 1: 1 ratio. Access to J-Coin is free. Tracking digital money is much easier than controlling cash flows, which is certainly important to the government. In the coming years, J-Coin will probably see the light of day, although the system infrastructure on which it is based is not yet clear. It may be based on Blockchain technology, but details have not yet been disclosed. Recent Bank of Japan reports indicates that Blockchain is not "mature enough" to handle such large-scale transactions.

Recently, Japan has once again become the world's largest Bitcoin exchange market with a 50.75% share. To achieve this result, China has certainly contributed greatly to the banning of the cryptocurrency exchange in its own country.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the dashed black trend line and then broken above the gray resistance zone ( $4,000 - $4,1111). Currently, the price is trading at the level of $4,208 and it looks like it is heading towards the next technical resistance at the level of $4,400. Please notice, that the market conditions are overbought and the price might get capped any time soon. The projected target for wave (c) of the wave B is at the level of $4,661.

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Trading plan for 28/09/2017

Trading plan for 28/09/2017:

US Dollar's rally continues on Thursday, albeit at a slower rate. Trump's announcement of the tax reform was more or less in line with expectations, and he fits into the last positive sentiment around the US Dollar. EUR/USD is getting closer to 1.1700, USD/JPY is on the way to breaking through yesterday's highs at 113.23.

On Thursday 28th of September, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but market participants will keep an eye on Bank of England Mark Carney speech, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Guy Debelle speech and Consumer Confidence from Eurozone and Preliminary CPI data from Germany. During the NY session, the US will release Final GDP, Goods Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims data. Later during the day, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer will give a speech.

GBP/USD analysis for 28/09/2017:

The data calendar is fairly thin today, so the market focus will probably be on the US tax policy proposals, where key Republican policymakers sent out their proposal yesterday, demanding deep tax cuts but adding few details on how to pay for them.

On the other side of the pond, Bank of England Mark Carney's speech is scheduled at 08:15 am GMT. During his last speech, Carney reiterated caution in assessing the risks of Brexit and reminded, that an interest rate hike might come in the "coming months", but it will be gradual and limited. He added that monetary policy may have to "move in order to stand still" due to the possibility that global equilibrium interest rates are rising. Later on, he expressed his concerns regarding the post-Brexit situation as he said that lower immigration due to Brexit could contribute "more materially" to inflation pressure in the short term, with only modest impact in the long term. Since then not much changed in the BoE monetary policy, so his today's speech might still be a repetition that global investors heard last time. However, any hawkish remarks regarding the interest rates will likely support the British Pound across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the local swing high was made at the level of 1.3655, the candlestick pattern of Dark Cloud Cover indicated a reversal in progress. Since then the market broke out of the consolidation zone and deteriorated towards the technical support at the level of 1.3327. Currently, the market conditions are oversold, but the momentum indicator is below the fifty level and pointing down. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.3269.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY tests the 78% Fibo again

The price of USD/JPY has a clear problem to break through above the 78%Fibo at the level of 112.95 as it is being permanently pushed lower. The visible bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator does not help the bullish case and it looks like some corrective decline towards the level of 112.19 and below might get triggered anytime soon.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD above 61%Fibo

The price of USD/CAD has broken through the important technical resistance zone at the level of 1.2440 and 61%Fibo at the level of 1.2432. Currently, the price is about to test the 78%Fibo at the level of 1.2533 and if this retracement is violated, then the next technical resistnace is seen at the level of 1.2655.

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Burning outlook: EURUSD - downward movement is exhausted

Burning outlook: EURUSD - the movement down is exhausted.

The EURUSD rate is in a short-term downward movement, but the downward impulse is exhausted.

On Wednesday, new strong data on the US economy came out - orders for durable goods grew in the year by + 5.1%, higher than the forecasts.

Excluding transportation orders, growth is even higher, +6.1% for the year.

"Capital goods" - that is investments - growth is also strong, + 3.6% for the year, and a revision of the previous one with an increase to + 3.6%

This supported the dollar, but a slowdown in the decline of the euro is observed, even against the background of strong data on the dollar.

It should be understood that the decline in EURUSD from 1.2100 to 1.1750 is so far only a correction to the previous multi-month increase.

It is very likely the consolidation - fluctuations course of the exchange rate will be in some new range.

Sell from 1.1790.

Buy from 1.1660.

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USD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

Forex analysis review
USD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 28, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair has faced strong support at the level of 0.7131. So, the strong resistance has been already faced at the level of 0.7131 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again.
  • The level of 0.7131 represents a double bottom for that it is acting as minor support this week. Furthermore, the NZD/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.7131. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.7131 and 0.7167.
  • Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours.
  • Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend.
  • Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.7167/ 0.7131 with the first target at the level of 0.7247. If the trend is be able to break the first resistance at the level of 0.7247, then the market will continue rising towards the weekly resistance 2 at 0.7319.
  • Also, it should be noted that the double top is set at 0.7435.
  • Stop loss should be set at the level 0.7100 because the last bearish wave is seen at the price of 0.7131.
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 28, 2017

The US dollar index remains in a bullish short-term trend. Price target mentioned in our last analysis has been achieved. There are also signs of bearish divergence providing a warning for dollar bulls.

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Red lines - bullish channel

The US dollar index is inside the bullish channel. Both RSI indicators are diverging. Price could make a pullback towards 92.95 which is the short-term support and the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise. Cloud support is at 92.20. As long as we trade above it, the short-term trend is bullish.

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As expected, the dollar index has reached the Ichimoku cloud resistance. Price is above both the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen but below the Kumo (cloud). Trend is bullish in the short-term but in medium-term the trend remains bearish. This bounce is still considered as a short-term correction to the bigger downward trend. I expect price to get rejected and provide new lows towards 90.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 28, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair movement was clear as it took place in an uptrend channel for a while. The trend showed signs of a bullish market. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.9691 and 0.9769. The daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.9769 and 0.9691 respectively. Hence, the USD/CHF pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9691 to form a bullish channel. Besides, the major resistance is seen at 0.9814, while the immediate resistance is found at 0.9769. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 0.9769 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9769, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9769. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.7283. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.9691 with the first target at the level of 0.9769; and continue towards 0.9814. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 0.9769; the market will decline further to the level of 0.9691 to set around it for a while. Generally, we still prefer a bearish market in coming hours.
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 28, 2017

Gold price made a new lower low at $1,278 where the next support level was found. As said in our previous analysis, a new lower low does not cancel our bullish view. A pullback is seen as a buying opportunity, and bullish divergence signs here are signalling that downside is limited.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Gold price has entered inside the bearish channel after being rejected at the 4hour Kumo (cloud) resistance. Both RSI indicators are diverging. Gold should bounce strongly soon. Resistance is at $1,297 and the next one lies at $1,317.

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On a weekly basis, gold is making a corrective pullback towards the kijun-sen. If you remember our previous posts, we said that since the tenkan-sen is broken, we should move lower towards the kijun-sen. Now we are here right on the weekly support. The price is above the weekly cloud. Our longer-term view remains bullish looking for a move above $1,400.

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Gold is losing ground

The strengthening of the US dollar forced the bulls to flee from the battlefield in a panic over the XAU / USD pair. Quotes of gold fell below the psychologically important $ 1,300 per ounce mark against the background of Janet Yellen's "hawkish" rhetoric and the Republican readiness to voice details of the tax reform. The latter can disperse the US economy to 3%, which will strengthen the global appetite for risk and deal a serious blow to reliable assets.

The head of the Federal Reserve urged investors to understand the normalization of monetary policy. If we now rely on the slowing inflation, then in case of recession, the Central Bank will not have enough margin of safety to defeat it. Indeed, it is one thing when the economic recession comes at the time of finding the federal funds rate at the level of 3-3.5%. It's another things if it wanders near the 1% mark. What to do? Do we return to the use of non-traditional measures of monetary policy in the form of QE? After all, the balance of the Fed is already swelling and the risks of its further hike will lead to an increase in side effects.

The rise in the probability of the December monetary restriction to 78% became a serious blow to the positions of the supporters of precious metal. In the week of September 19, the reduction in net shorts was because of the closure of long positions. Meanwhile, the value of short ones remained practically unchanged. During the last five days of September, new sellers entered the market.

Dynamics of speculative positions on gold

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Source: CFTC, Bloomberg.

However, the "bulls" for XAU / USD still do not intend to fall to their knees. Commerzbank notes that demand for a physical asset remains strong, and central banks, led by Russian and Turkish regulators (+16 tons and +6 tons in August) continue to buy gold. Mitsubishi pays attention to the fact that against the backdrop of the "hawkish" rhetoric of representatives of the Fed, the profitability of the 2-year US Treasury bonds has risen to a maximum since 2008. As a result, the yield curve went down. Investors flee from short-term anti-risk securities into long-term ones, which can be considered as a positive factor for gold.

In my opinion, the analyzed asset will find support from time to time thanks to the geopolitical factor. Moreover, the potential for lowering the XAU / USD quotations is limited due to the ceiling of indicators such as the probability of the Fed's monetary policy tightening in December. Indeed, it is unlikely that the chances for an increase in the rate for federal funds will rise above 94-96% before the last meeting of the FOMC this year. That means that for more than 2 months they will go a little way more than in the last couple of decades.

Having accused the US of declaring war, North Korea is capable of launching a missile at any moment. This will immediately return investors' interest to safe havens. Not to mention that the beginning of full-scale military operations and the implementation of the promise of Donald Trump to erase a dangerous regime from the face of the earth can also boost gold.

Technically, the breakthrough of the lower border of the upward trading channel with the subsequent retest indicates that the initiative is in the hands of the "bears". If they manage to storm the support at $ 1280 per ounce, the risks of developing a correction in the direction of $ 1260 and $ 1,250 will significantly increase.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for September 27, 2017

USD/CAD is currently residing at the edge of 1.2410-20 resistance area from where it is expected to show upcoming directional bias in this pair. USD has been quite dominant over CAD recently which lead to further retracement after bouncing off the 1.2110 support level. Today BOC Governor Poloz is due to speak about the short-term interest rate and future monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature. The definite effect of the event will be considered after the daily close today. Until then the currency is expected to be quite volatile in nature. On the other hand, today the US Core Durable Goods Orders report showed a decrease to 0.2% as expected which previously was at 0.6%. The Durable Goods Orders showed a significant increase with better than expected value at 1.7% from the previous negative value of -6.8% which was expected to be at 1.0%. Meanwhile, the Pending Home Sales report showed a greater deficit at -2.6% from the previous value of -0.8% which was expected to show less deficit at -0.5% and the Crude Oil Inventories report showed negative value with a decrease to -1.8M from the previous figure of 4.6M which was expected to be at 2.9M. As of the current situation, CAD has been losing grounds against USD earlier but any positive hint on the upcoming interest rates by BOC Governor Poloz may lead to further impulsive bearish pressure in this pair towards 1.2110 or more. On the other hand, any negative hint or signal will lead to further bullish pressure in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.2410-20 resistance area which is expected to show directional move in this pair in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2410-20 area and with some bearish pressure, it is expected to reach 1.2110 support level in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 1.2410 with a daily close, then there are certain chance of price pushing up higher towards 1.2770 resistance level in the future. As the price remains below 1.2770, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for September 27, 2017

AUD/USD has been quite bearish recently after breaking below the channel support. The pair is currently residing at the edge of support level 0.7830. Last week, AUD has been quite strong amid the economic reports and events which helped the currency to gain good momentum against USD and led to a further bullish move which was rejected off the resistance area of 0.8020-60 and countered with impulsive bearish pressure. This week, no economic reports were released in Australia, but on Thursday RBA Assistant Governor Debelle is going to speak about further economic policies. On Friday, Private Sector Credit report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. On the USD side, today Core Durable Goods Orders report showed a decrease to 0.2% as expected which previously was at 0.6%, Durable Goods Orders showed a significant increase with better than expected value at 1.7% from the previous negative value of -6.8% which was expected to be at 1.0%, Pending Home Sales report showed a greater deficit at -2.6% from the previous value of -0.8% which was expected to show less deficit at -0.5%, and Crude Oil Inventories report showed a negative value with a decrease to -1.8M from the previous figure of 4.6M which was expected to be at 2.9M. To sum up, USD has found support from the economic reports which resulted in bearish pressure in this pair which is expected to continue further if the upcoming US data is published with better than expected figures.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing at the edge of support level 0.7830. As the price remains above the support area of 0.7750-0.7830, the bullish move towards 0.8020-60 resistance area is quite probable. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the lowest support of the support area i.e. 0.7750 with a daily close, then a further bearish move towards 0.7630 will be expected.

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