USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 16, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2650 on June 9.

Daily fixation above 1.2980 (61.8% Fibonacci level) allows a quick bullish movement towards 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched for a significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, conservative traders should consider the current daily fixation below 1.3000 as a valid SELL entry. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2800 and 1.2700.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 16 , 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That's why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the price zone around 0.7200 (upper limit of the depicted channel).

As anticipated, the price zone of 0.7150 - 0.7200 (upper limit of the depicted channel) offered a profitable SELL trade. T/P levels should be located at 0.6970, 0.6900, and 0.6850. S/L should be placed at 0.7250.

Note the Head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily chart.

Confirmation requires DAILY candlestick closure below 0.6970 (Neckline). Projection targets extend down to 0.6760 and 0.6690 levels.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6760-0.6700 constitutes a support zone to be watched for a possible BUY entry if the current bearish swing extends below 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 16, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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Similar to what happened in October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 constituted a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.

Later on May 18, daily persistence below the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1200 was needed to ensure enough bearish momentum towards the 1.1100 and 1.1000 levels. However, a lack of bearish pressure was manifested on June 1.

Hence, the recent bullish closure above 1.1200 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1400 where evident signs of bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were previously suggested. That's why, obvious bearish breakdown of 1.1200 took place on June 16

However, evident bullish rejection around 1.1130 (depicted uptrend line) brought the EUR/USD pair above 1.1200 again.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the zone of 1.1400 offered a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On July 8, recent bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range), but on July 15 significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1150.

This week, bearish fixation below 1.1000 will be needed to allow a bearish decline to 1.0820 (key level 2) where price actions should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair kept trading above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range). Hence, further bullish advance towards 1.1170 and 1.1220 was executed as expected.

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1250 (Supply Level 1) for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed. However, temporary bullish breakout is being expressed above 1.1250.

Note that bullish persistence above 1.1250 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1400 (Supply Level 2) where a better SELL entry can be offered.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 16, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts.

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario towards 1.2700 (the nearest bearish projection target) where price action should be watched for a possible short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 now constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if any bullish pullback extends above 1.3550.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 16, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.5442 in a high volume. According to the 1H time frame, I found potential end of bearish corrective phase (ABC). The price stopped at Fibonacci expansion 100% where A is equal to C. There is also a stopping volume (ultra high volume bar). Be careful when selling and watch for buying opportunities. I found potential bullish flag formation. So, watch for potential breakout of pattern to confirm upward continuation. First take profit level is set at the price of 1.5560.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5550

R2: 1.5570

R3: 1.5600

Support levels:

S1: 1.5485

S2: 1.5465

S3: 1.5435

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for buying opportunities.

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Gold analysis for August 16 , 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,353.07 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, there is an upward trend and successful testing of supply, which is a sign that selling looks risky. According to the 5M time frame, I found ending of ABC corrective phase, which is a sign that buyers are in control. First resistance level is set at the price of $1,355.90. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of $1,355.90, the price may test the level of $1,359.80 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

Hourly Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,358.80

R2: 1,359.40

R3: 1,360.40

Support levels:

S1: 1,356.85

S2: 1,356.25

S3: 1,355.30

Trading recommendations for today: Selling looks very risky. Watch for buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 16/08/2016

Global macro overview for 16/08/2016:

The Japanese Nominal Gross Domestic Product slowed down in April-June period according to the data released yesterday. On a quarterly basis, GDP advanced 0.2%, which was in line with expectations, but way below the 0.8% q/q increase for the last three months of the year. On an annualized basis, GDP advanced again only 0.2%, slowing down dramatically from 2.0%. Moreover, consumer demand, which accounts for for nearly two-thirds of business activity, added only 0.2%. The main reason behind the poor data was weak exports and capital expenditure. In conclusion, this data put again more pressure on premier Shinzo Abe to add or increase the stimulus program in order to bolster bigger economic growth.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture in the daily time frame. The bear camp is clearly heading to test the important daily technical support at the level of 99.04 and the bearish outlook is being confirmed by the fact, that the price is trading below 55, 100, and 200 DMA. The next resistance is seen at the level of 100.65.

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Global macro overview for 16/08/2016

Global macro overview for 16/08/2016:

The ZEW Consumer Sentiment survey from Germany was released this morning and it was a mixed bag of data. The consumer sentiment was below the market expectations at the level of 0.5 points while expected number was at the level of 2.1 points after a plunge to - 6.8 a month ago. A little better was the current situation assessment that increased to the level of 57.6 from 49.8 a month ago and it was better than the expected growth to 50.2. In conclusion, this data might suggest that the sentiment of some of the financial experts throughout Europe has improved slightly, but it is not really a game-changer for the current mood, which still is more likely to decrease again in September.

Let's now take a look a the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. Bulls managed to break out above the golden trend line and now they are heading towards the 78% Fibo at the level of 1.1317. Please notice that the growing bearish divergence suggests a reversal and decline, that might happen any time now. The next support is seen at the level of 1.1232 and any breakout below it will confirm the bearish scenario.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 16, 2016

General overview for 16/08/2016:

The market has tested the intraday support at the level of 112.31 and bounced from there, but it wasn't strong enough to break out above the dashed channel line. The invalidation level for this scenario is still at the intraday support at the level of 112.31, nevertheless the bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator indicates a possible upside rebound.

Support/Resistant:

112.31 - Intraday Support

112.42 - WS1

113.17 - Weekly Pivot

113.65 - WR1

114.02 - Intraday Resistance

114.48 - WR2

114.96 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders from current price levels with SL below the level of 112.30 and TP at the level of 114.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 16, 2016

General overview for 16/08/2016:

The golden trend line has been violated and now the market is trading below the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2859 as wave iii is developing lower. Nevertheless, it looks like this might be a short-lived drop as the corrective wave iv is due later and the weekly pivot support at the level of 1.2822 might be a good target to terminate wave iii. A growing bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports this view.

Support/Resistant:

1.2822 - WS1 and Intraday Support

1.2859 - Intraday Resistance

1.3006 - Weekly Pivot

1.3091 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders from current price levels with SL below the level of 1.2800 and TP at the level of 1.2859.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 16, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 1.0120 yesterday. The level of 0.7245 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.7280 with the first target at the level of 0.7313. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7313 and further to the level of 0.7343. The level of 0.7340 will act as strong resistance and a double top is already set at the point of 0.7343. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7343 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7343 today, the market will decline further to 0.7245 to retest it again.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 16, 2016

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Overview:

Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair dropped from the level of 0.9735 (this level of 0.9734 double top) to the bottom around 0.9640. So, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9640 in order to call for a strong bearish market today. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9684 followed by 0.9735, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9621. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9684 and 0.9571. Hence, the first resistance is seen at the price of 0.9684. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9684, the market will decline further to 0.9621. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9571 with a view to test the major support today. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9734 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

Intraday technical levels:

  • R3: 0.9856
  • R2: 0.9785
  • R1: 0.9734
  • PP: 0.9684
  • S1: 0.9621
  • S2: 0.9571
  • S3: 0.9520
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 16, 2016

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a break above minor resistance at 1.5568 confirming that the correction from 1.5839 completed with the test of 1.5187 and a new impulsive rally towards 1.6428 and above is developing.

We have seen a lot of false attempts to continue the impulsive rally from July's low at 1.5072, but eventually it seems as the next impulsive rally is unfolding up for a break above 1.5568, confirming renewed upside pressure here.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5410 with stop placed at 1.5175. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5400 or upon a break above 1.5568 and use the same stop at 1.5175.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 16, 2016

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Wave summary:

Have we just seen one of those nasty deep wave two corrections here? If YES! Then a break above minor resistance at 113.30 and more importantly a break above 114.03 should be seen soon for upside acceleration towards 118.47 and 122.00.

Only a clear break below support at 112.28 and more importantly below 110.79 will invalidate the possible bullish outlook and call for a decline to 106.03 before higher.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 112.60 was hit. We will only re-buy EUR if resistance at 113.30 is broken with stop placed at 112.25.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 16, 2016

EUR/USD: There was another bullish attempt on this pair yesterday. Since there is a bullish signal in the market, it is expected that price would go further upwards, testing the resistance line at 1.1250, though the resistance line at 1.1200 would need to be overcome first.

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USD/CHF: There is a sell signal on the USD/CHF pair, which made another attempt to go south on Monday. As long as the EUR/USD pair is strong, USD/CHF would be bearish, unless the former drops like a stone (which is a possibility this week or next). This means that the movement of USD/CHF would be determined by whatever happens to EUR/USD.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair has gone further south this week, which means the market has gone down 450 pips since August 4, 2016. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart and there is a possibility that price could go further and further south, unless there is a strong fundamental event that favors GBP or comes out very unfavorably for USD.

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USD/JPY: There was nothing significant in the market on August 15, 2016. There is currently a bearish outlook on the market and this is expected to continue to hold this week. This week, bears should continue their dominance, as rallies proffer short-selling opportunities.

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EUR/JPY: It can be said that the EUR/JPY pair consolidated yesterday, in the context of a downtrend. Price is expected to move further downwards this week, reaching the demand zones at 112.50 and 112.00; especially as EUR is expected to weaken further this week.

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EURJPY near channel resistance, remain bearish.

Price is close to our channel resistance as we look to sell on strength below 114.00 resistance (overlap resistance, channel resistance, Fibonacci retracement) for a further drop to 111.00 support (long-term Fibonacci retracement, key swing low support).

RSI (21) is close to major resistance at 65%

Stochastics (21,5,3) is also right below 84% major resistance where we expect a drop from.

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Sell below 114.00. Stop loss is at 115.40. Take profit is at 111.00.

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EUR/USD at major resistance, reversal expected.

Price is seeing major resistance at 1.1235 (Fibonacci Retracement, Fibonacci Projection, graphical overlap resistance) where we expect a drop from to at least 1.1125.

The strategy would be to take one short position now and if price rises up to 1.1235, we look to add to our short position again.

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Sell below 1.1235. Stop loss is at 1.1310. Take profit is at 1.1125

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 16, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Trade Balance, ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW Economic Sentiment.The US will release the economic data too such as Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Housing Starts, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, Building Permits, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1232.

Strong Resistance:1.1226.

Original Resistance: 1.1215.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1204.

Target Inner Area: 1.1178.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1152.

Original Support: 1.1141.

Strong Support: 1.1130.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1124.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 16, 2016

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data's but the US will release some economic data such as Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Housing Starts, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, Building Permits.So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 101.50.

Resistance. 2: 101.30.

Resistance. 1: 101.10.

Support. 1: 100.86.

Support. 2: 100.66.

Support. 3: 100.46.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for August 16, 2016

The US Dollar index had a very volatile session amid a flat economic calendar during American session. Currently, the index is being supported by the 95.51 level a breakout of which is likely to add downside pressure to the 95.19 level where our next target is located. However, in another scenario, a rebound should drive the greenback to test the 95.93 level where the 200 SMA is located according to the H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.93 / 96.32

H1 chart's support levels: 95.51 / 95.19

Trading recommendations for today: based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.51, take profit is at 95.19 and stop loss is at 95.83.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 16, 2016

The pair is posting more declines below the 1.3000 psychological level, and we can see further weakness toward the support level of 1.2798. The 200 SMA on the H1 chart is pointing to the downside and it can put pressure on GBP/USD. However, if we see a rebound, then the next hurdle will be the 1.2950 level. MACD indicator is entering neutral territory, and that should lead to a sideways range.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3000 / 1.3085

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2894 / 1.2798

Trading recommendations for today: based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2894, take profit is at 1.2798 and stop loss is at 1.2987.

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