Analysis of EUR/NZD for March 25, 2016

Overview:

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the 1.6660 mark. On the H4 time frame chart, the price is still trading in a defined trading range between the 1.6475 level (support) and the 1.6865 level (resistance). As the market is currently strong, I expect testing of the resistance level at 1.6865. Anyway, wait for a successful breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction. On the daily time frame chart, we can observe the sideways market and very low volatility for this currency pair. According to 30M time frame, intraday selling climax and demand have appeared, which is a sign of intraday bullish behavior.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6715

R2: 1.6740

R3: 1.6775

Support levels:

S1: 1.6640

S2: 1.6615

S3: 1.6575

Trading recommendation for today: There is bullish pressure according to intraday time frames. However, the market is still sideways in the short-term prospective. Watch for a breakout of a trading range to confirm further direction.

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Analysis of gold for March 25, 2016

View :

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Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the $1,223.00 level. Our head and shoulders formation is still active and it has been progressing so far. Our first take profit level at $1,225.00 has been reached. Next, downward take profit level is set at $1,193.00 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%).On the 30M time frame chart I found a potential end of bullish correction and starting of bearish continuation. I found volume spike (buying climax) in the background, followed by up-thrust bars and high effort with low result bars, which is a clear sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunties. First intraday take profit level is set at $1,212.50.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,221.70

R2: 1,223.40

R3: 1,226.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,216.30

S2: 1,214.60

S3: 1,211.90

Trading recommendations for today: be careful when buying gold, watch for selling opportunities on rallies.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 25, 2016

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On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 0.6760 (upper limit of the previous consolidation range) was mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6860, where a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed on March 18.

Note that a daily closure below 0.6760 was needed to allow a quick bearish decline towards 0.6550 (the depicted support level).

For those who missed the initial trade, another sell entry can be offered around 0.6760 if a bullish pullback is expressed. Initial T/P levels should be located at 0.6600 and 0.6540.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 25, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the price zone of 1.3170-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone is being manifested on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponded to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

The price level of 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) stands as a prominent support level to be watched for significant bullish rejection and a valid buy entry. It is already running in profits.

The price level of 1.3300 constitutes a significant resistance level to be watched for bearish price action. It corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend.

Hence, a valid sell entry can be taken if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish breakdown below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the USD/CAD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 25, 2016

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On January 21, after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4340, evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, previous weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4340 again.

Bullish persistence above 1.4488 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615 where the most recent bearish swing was initiated.

As previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted demand zone (below 1.4340), the next demand level was located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009).

As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick were expressed around 1.3850 (prominent weekly demand level). That is why, a valid buy entry was suggested near the same level.

Recently, the price zone of 1.4340-1.4488 constituted a significant supply zone to offer evident bearish rejection.

Temporary bearish rejection was manifested via the previous weekly candlestick until March 16 when the price level of 1.4050 managed to push the pair again to the upside (note the lower tail of the previous weekly candlestick).

Note that bullish persistence above the price level of 1.4488 is needed to allow further bullish advancement towards 1.4620 to take place.

Otherwise, a quick bearish movement towards 1.4060 should be expected.

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A recent lower high was achieved around the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against the price level of 1.4340.

Hence, an extensive bearish breakout below 1.4340 was expressed on the daily chart (the GBP/USD pair looked oversold few weeks ago).

That is why, signs of bullish recovery and a profitable long entry were expected around 1.3850. A recent bullish swing was expressed towards the price levels around 1.4400.

On March 14, a recent bearish movement was initiated around 1.4350 (61.8% Fibonacci level). The nearest bearish target was located around 1.4050 where the current bullish swing was initiated.

This week, the price level of 1.4488 was being challenged. It corresponded to 79.6% Fibonacci level and the backside of the depicted uptrend line.

If bullish persistence above 1.4488 was maintained, a quick bullish movement towards 1.4650 should have been expected (low probability).

On the other hand, traders were advised to wait for a daily closure below 1.4350 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the GBP/USD pair. T/P levels to be located at 1.4150 and 1.4060.

Conservative traders should look for bullish price action around the demand level of 1.4050 to BUY the pair. S/L should be located below 1.3950.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 25, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had been previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.

December's candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one, allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370.

In February, the price zone of 1.1350-1.1400 acted as a significant supply zone during the previous bullish pullback. Hence, another bearish rejection should be expected around the current price zone during the current bullish swing.

On the other hand, the level of 0.9450 will remain a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Consequently, a quick bullish movement started towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed.

A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was seen on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue. Bullish targets were expected around 1.1320 and 1.1400 (recently visited).

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1320-1.1400 stands as a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair to offer bearish rejection and a valid sell entry.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid sell entry could be offered around the current supply zone of 1.1320 - 1.1400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1460.

Conservative traders can wait for a pullback towards 1.1000 to buy the EUR/USD pair. S/L should be placed below 1.0940.

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Global macro overview for 25/03/2016

Global macro overview for 25/03/2016:

The UK Retail Sales data was released yesterday and it was better than expected. The market expected the sales to be at the level of -0.7% m/m (3.5% y/y) after very good figures were logged last month ( 2.3% m/m; 5.4% y/y). But the market was surprised with the lower than expected drop to the level of -0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y). In conclusion, the British consumers had been supporting the domestic economy in a rather sturdy manner over the past few months. That is why the BoE predicted household consumption would increase by 2.75% this year. Nevertheless, despite the overall good data, there are some first signs of a possible slowdown in consumer spending. The British Retail Consortium has recently published a report showing annual growth in retail spending decrease to 1.1% in February from 3.3% in the prior month. Now there is still a question whether the households with more disposable income (saved due to near zero inflation and record employment) will continue to spend the hard earned cash to support the domestic economy.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair at the H4 time frame. We can clearly see the recent break out below the golden trend line and the price rejection at the level of 1.4182 (Doji Candle). Currently, the market is trying again to test the golden trend line form below. However, as long as the level of 1.4182 is not broken, the bears remain in control over this market.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 25, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair broke the resistance that turned into strong support at the level of 0.6665. The level of 0.6665 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.6665 and 0.6650. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish market. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.6665 (horizontal green line). So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.6665 - 0.6650. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 0.6665 or 0.6650 with the first target at the level of 0.6750, and continue towards 0.6826 (the weekly resistance 1). This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs at the moment.
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  • On the other hand, if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.6635 in coming hours, the market will decline further to 1.4473. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.6515 to test the weekly support. It should be also noted that the weekly support will act as the major support today.
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Technical analysis of NZD/CAD for March 25, 2016

According to my previous analysis, NZD/CAD is expected to fall. Price remains near the R1 resistance that hasn't been broken. Overall, the entry point for short positions looks very attractive, especially when the price is right at the top of the descending channel and below the 200 Moving Average.

Consider holding or entering short positions while the price is near R1 (0.8890), targeting either S2 (0.8740) or S3 (0.8650) . The stop loss should be well above the 0.8900 psychological resistance.

Support: 0.8830, 0.8740, 0.8650

Resistance: 0.8890, 0.8980

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Technical analysis of AUD/CAD for March 25, 2016

Yet again AUD/CAD is trading right at the R1 resistance (0.9965). Price attempted to break above it yesterday, but failed to do so. While resistance is holding, the probability of a substantial corrective wave down remains highly probable.

According to my previous analysis, consider holding or entering short positions targeting either S2 (0.9830) or S3 (0.9750). The stop loss should be just above the psychological resistance of 1.0000.

Support: 0.9880, 0.9830, 0.9750

Resistance: 0.9965, 1.0000

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Global macro overview for 25/03/2016

Global macro overview for 25/03/2016:

The US Durable Goods orders data was released yesterday. Market participants were surprised as the indicator dropped in February for the third time in four months. The market expectations were at the level of -3.0% m/m, but the number released was at the level of -2.8% m/m. The Commerce Department reported that bookings for goods, meant to last at least three years, plunged 2.8%, following a 4.2% gain. In conclusion, the sector continued to struggle with the lingering effects of a strong US Dollar and lower oil prices.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the daily time frame. The pair is still trading above the important daily technical support at the level of 110.06. Moreover, the short-term dynamic resistance provided by the golden trend line hasn't been violated yet, so it means that the bears are still in control over this market.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 25, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has faced strong resistances at the levels of 0.9821 because support became resistance. So, the strong resistance has been already set at the level of 0.9821, and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. But the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9821, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below a new strong resistance level of 0.9821 (the level of 0.9821 coincides with a ratio of the 38.2% Fibonacci). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9800, so it will be good to sell at 0.9800 with the first target of 0.9704. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9650 in order to test the double bottom at the H1 time frame. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9650. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9853.
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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 25, 2016

General overview for 25/03/2016:

The market has finally broken out above the wave b green top at the level of 1.2526, but it wasn't strong enough to continue higher. Nevertheless, the immediate upward reaction from the wave (ii) bottom looks impulsive in nature and might be the beginning of a new upward impulsive wave progression. Nevertheless, the alternative count suggests that the correction might be complex and time-consuming, but it cannot violate the 123.07 level. If it does, the alternative count will be in play, which suggests more downward wave progression towards the 122.06 level.

Support/Resistance:

127.98 - WR2

127.26 - Technical Resistance

126.76 - WR1

126.45 - Intraday Resistance

125.39 - Weekly Pivot

125.58 - Intraday Resistance

124.90 - Intraday Support

124.82 - WS1

124.67 - Intraday Support

123.07 - Green Impulsive Cycle Invalidation Level

121.87 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should buy on dips with SL below 123.07 and TP open for now.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 25, 2016

General overview for 25/03/2016:

The market has hit the weekly pivot resistance at the level of 1.3270 and currently it is the in corrective sub-cycle labeled as wave iv. So far three waves have been made. So if the bulls want to take the control over this market again, they need to make at least one more wave to the upside with the projected target at the level of 1.3336. Any break out below the level of 1.3136 will invalidate the bullish count.

Support/Resistance:

1.3026 - Technical Support

1.3098 - Weekly Pivot

1.3166 - Intraday Support

1.3270 - WR1

1.3336 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Day traders and swing traders should consider opening buy orders from the current price levels with SL below the level of 1.3000 and TP open for now.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 25, 2016

EUR/USD: Altogether, this pair has been bearish so far this month. A movement below the support line at 1.1050 would easily render the recent bullish outlook invalid. As long as the price is above that support line, sellers should approach the market with caution. There would be a "sell" signal in the market once the price goes below the support line at 1.1050.

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USD/CHF: What is happening on this currency trading instrument is best called a rally in the context of a downtrend. The EMA 11 remains below the EMA 56, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. This could mean that the price would continue moving up and up until the bearish bias is overturned.

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GBP/USD: On Thursday (March 24, 2016), the Cable performed an upward bounce in the context of a downtrend. However, the upward bounce is seen as a mere correction in the market because it is expected that the price would soon go further downwards (which makes the present price a good deal). The Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart makes this assumption sound rational.

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USD/JPY: The perpetual bullish effort on the USD/JPY pair has already resulted in a "buy" signal. The price action on the chart subtly reveals some bullish propensity, although the market currently looks choppy. It is expected that the price would target the supply levels at 113.00 and 113.50 today or early next week.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair remains a flat market, and there would soon be a breakout, which would most probably favor the bulls. A closer look at the price reveals that the bulls have not given up their determination to push the price higher. While today may bring thin trading activities, next week would witness sustained trending movement.

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Daily analysis of USDX for March 25, 2016

On the H1 chart, USDX has been performing a bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA price zone, with a target placed around 96.70 to the upside. However, the downside can be resumed in the coming days because the overall structure in the Index has been bearish and price action is favoring for possible breakous of the latest fractals formed in the corrective move from the March 18th lows.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.70 / 97.04

H1 chart's support levels: 96.03 / 95.44

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.03, take profit is at 95.44, and stop loss is at 96.60.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 25, 2016

The pair had a corrective move during yesterday's session in favor of the overall bearish bias, after a support was found around the 1.4056 level. Now, GBP/USD can make a pullback to resume the decline, but the fact is that a breakout above the 1.4200 level will expose the Cable to make new highs on a short-term basis.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4151 / 1.4200

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4093 / 1.4056

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4151, take profit is at 1.4200 and stop loss is at 1.4100.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for March 24, 2016

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair has tested the 113.00 barrier and is still below it. Stochastic loses its positive momentum in the daily time frame due to the last tight trading, supporting the chances of moving downwards to resume the overall bearish trend. Therefore, we still follow our bearish overview on the short-term basis as long as the price is below the 113.97 level, which targets 110.00 followed by 106.63 levels mainly. A breach of the 113.97 level will lead the price to retest the most important resistance for the short- and mid-term trading at 116.14 before any new attempt to decline.

We expect the trading range for today to be between 111.00 support and 113.50 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Gold for March 24, 2016

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Overview

The gold price broke the 1,227.40 level and settled with a daily close below it, stopping the recently suggested bearish wave and putting the price into a correctional bearish track. Its next target is located at 1,193.00, which represents 38.2% Fibonacci for the rise measured from 1,047.60 to 1,282.90. Therefore, the bearish bias is expected for the upcoming sessions, supported by the negative pressure. A break of 1,227.40 – 1,235.35 levels will stop the correctional bearish pressure and lead the price to regain its bullish trend again.

We expect the trading range for today to be between 1,193.00 support and 1,240.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 24, 2016

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Overview

The silver price resumed its decline yesterday touching the expected target mentioned in our last report at 15.30 and trading near the bullish channel's support located now at 15.15. The support offers a positive factor that protects trading inside the mentioned channel, making us project the bullish bias in the upcoming sessions. Therefore, the bullish trend will be expected on the intraday and short-term basis unless breaking the 15.15 level and holding below it. The price is likely to head towards 15.70 followed by 16.35 levels as the next main targets of the suggested bearish wave.

We expect the trading range for today to be between 15.00 support and 15.70 resistance.

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