Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 14, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. The intraday technical outlook has changed a little. Even though the pair recently posted a technical rebound, the intraday outlook is still negative. A bearish cross has been identified between the 20- and 50-period MAs, and the intraday RSI is heading downwards. Hence, as long as 0.9800 holds as the key resistance, the pair stands a higher chance of returning to the first downside target at 0.9715 and to the second one at 0.9660 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9715. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9660. The pivot point stands at 0.98. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9860 and the second target at 0.9940.

Resistance levels: 0.9860 0.9940 0.9995

Support levels: 0.9715 0.9660 0.9635

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 14, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias. Currently trading at 0.6562, the pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.6590, and it seems likely to post further decline. The 50-period MA is turning down and acting as a resistance role. The short-term resistance at 0.6510 also maintains the selling pressure. Besides, the intraday RSI is badly directed. Therefore, as long as 0.6590 holds as the key resistance, expect a return to 0.6510 on the downside and 0.6465 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6510. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6465. The pivot point stands at 0.6590. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6630 and the second target at 0.6675.

Resistance levels: 0.6630 0.6675 0.6735

Support levels: 0.6510 0.6465 0.6415

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 14, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair stays above its key support at 193.65 and is moving sideways around its 20- and 50-period intraday MAs. And the intraday RSI is above 50 lacking downward momentum. Thus, even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. The first upside target is set at 194.95; and the second one, at 195.40. Only a break below the key support at 193.65 would open the way to further weakness towards the horizontal support and overlap at 193 at first.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194.95 and the second target at 195.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 193. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 192.20. The pivot point is at 193.65.

Resistance levels: 194.95 195.40 196

Support levels: 193 192.20 191.75

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 14, 2015

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Overview

According to the attached chart, GBP/JPY recovered ahead of the 190.99 support and intraday bias is turned neutral at first. A further rise cannot be ruled out. But at this point, we are holding on to the view that consolidation pattern from 195.86 is not completed yet. Thus, we'd expect strong resistance from 195.86 to limit upside and bring a reversal. Meanwhile, a break of 190.99 will start the third leg of the consolidation and will target the 184.95 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.91; (P) 193.67; (R1) 195.05

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Daily analysis of SILVER for August 14, 2015

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Overview

Silver price did not show any strong move since yesterday, thus there is no change in our overall positive overview, which depends on holding above the 15.00 level, waiting to get positive stimulus to support rallying for testing the 16.05 level in the upcoming sessions. We remind you that breaking the 15.00 level will stop the current rise and push the price to visit the 14.40 level mainly. In general, we will keep preferring the bullish trend on the intraday basis unless breaking the 15.00 level and holding below it.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 14, 2015

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Overview:

On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was reached. This is where the ongoing bullish swing was initiated.

A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800, which offered traders few valid sell entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was initiated.

The level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier last month due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

However, a bullish pullback towards 1.5550-1.5600 was expected to take place shortly after, as suggested in the previous articles.

Our SELL entry which was suggested around 1.5600 got triggered few days ago. An early exit should be considered if the current daily candlestick maintains its closure above 1.5600.

A better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio may be offered around the price level of 1.5780 (the upper limit of the consolidation range and the backside of the broken uptrend) if enough bullish pressure is expressed.

Note that fixation below the price zone of 1.5550-1.5500 is mandatory to pursue towards lower bearish targets, initially at 1.5450. Moreover, it confirms the Double-Top reversal pattern.

On the other side, risky traders can SELL the GBP/USD pair upon daily closure below Wednesday's low around 1.5525. Initial bearish target would be located at 1.5450.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 14, 2015

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs), resulting in a formation of successive lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher lows were reached. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick was quite bullish. That is why, an extensive bullish movement is seen on the chart.

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish projection target remains projected at the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) where bearish pressure should be applied.

Recently, signs of lack of bullish momentum were generated on the chart (Head and Shoulders reversal pattern).

A bearish corrective movement towards the levels of 1.2750 (Breakout Level) should be expected as long as USD/CAD bears keep pushing below the level of 1.3050 that corresponds to the neckline of the depicted reversal pattern.

Bearish persistence below 1.3050 exposes the next support levels around 1.2910 and then 1.2800 where long-term BUY entries should be considered.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the breakout level constitutes a strong support.

Stop Loss should be located below the level of 1.2700. T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 14, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, and July) reflect recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target will be still located at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

A bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 will be possible only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached (a low probability).

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After such a long bearish rally, which started around the level of 1.1300, bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought EUR/USD to 1.1000 again. A bearish daily closure below 1.0950 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0750.

Evident bullish recovery was expressed last week after hitting the level of 1.0800. Since then, bulls have been trying to bring a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1000 and 1.1150 where the backside of the broken uptrend is located.

Bearish rejection should be anticipated around the price zone of 1.1150-1.1180 as it corresponds to the backside of the broken uptrend (depicted on the chart).

Yesterday, early bearish reaction has been manifested off 1.1150 until bullish rejection was expressed around 1.1080 (yesterday's low).

On the other hand, daily closure above 1.1150 threatens the previously mentioned bearish scenario. It may allow a quick bullish swing towards 1.1270 and 1.1300.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders can take a valid SELL entry around the recently established supply zone (1.1150-1.1170). S/L should be placed above 1.1200 while T/P levels should be located at 1.1100, 1.0850, and 1.0700.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for August 14, 2015

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Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback towards the level of 1.5550 took place. A bearish breakout below 1.5500 took place two weeks ago.

Last week, strong bearish pressure was applied to the level of 1.5550 again. It was beeing broken temporarily until the last week when bullish recovery was expressed.

Contradictory signals are coming from consecutive weekly candlesticks. This indicates lacking bullish momentum above 1.5500.

The previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.5680 (previous weekly high). Next bullish destination would be located at 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

The current weekly candlestick should be monitored by the end of the week to determine if the weekly closure comes above 1.5500 or below.

The nearest demand level around 1.5200 will become exposed only if the GBP/USD bears manage to bring the market price below the level of 1.5500 again.

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Previously, the zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5550, which corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top, was temporarily broken allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was recently established.

Last week, strong bullish price actions were expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 took place. The level of 1.5550 was breached during last week's consolidations.

However, Thursday's candlestick came as a bearish engulfing one, which enhanced the bearish side of the market again.

The level of 1.5500 is going to be the significant level to watch for. It corresponds to the short-term uptrend line depicted on the chart. It was temporarily breached on Friday.

However, evident bullish pressure was applied at 1.5450 on Monday. A bullish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed by the end of the day.

The nearest supply levels to meet the GBP/USD pair are located around the price levels of 1.5660 (Multiple Daily Highs) and 1.5770 (prominent 61.8% Fibonacci level) where price reaction should be monitored.

On the other hand, the bearish scenario towards 1.5470 and 1.5370 should be considered only if the GBP/USD bears manage to successfully push below 1.5500 again.

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Gold analysis for August 14, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price went to test the level of $1,112.33. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a bearish bar in a volume below the average. The price finaly broke our resistance at the level of $1,115.00. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe that our resistance at the price of $1,115.00 now acts like support. I found strong upward trendline and the price respected well that trendline, which is a sign that buyers are in control and that we may expect bullish movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of $1,127.00 (successfully held), Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of $1,141.00, and the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,157.00. According to Wyckoff analysis, we have strong accumulation and bottoming on gold, so watch only for buying opportunities on the dips (after bearish corrections).

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,123.05

R2: 1,126.85

R3: 1,131.10

Support levels:

S1: 1,113.10

S2: 1,110.65

S3: 1,104.00

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage. Watch for buying opportunites. Area around the price of $1,114.00 looks like very strong support and a good buy zone.

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Technical analysis of NZD/CAD for August 14, 2015

After a heavy downtrend, it looks like NZD/CAD finally found the bottom and started printing higher highs and higher lows signaling a potential trend reversal.

After testing the 0.8350 bottom, the price moved within the ascending channel and currently is right at the bottom of the channel rejecting the lower trendline. The 200 MA has been broken to an upside and has been rejected as well as throughout this week after multiple bounces. The 200MA clearly acting as a key support and with the price having hard time breaking below it should bring more buyers to the market.

This could be a very fast uptrend providing an excellent opportunity to go long. Consider buying NZD/CAD today, while it is trading near 200MA. There are two targets that could be used for profit taking. The first being at 161.8%, and the second, at 261.8% retracement levels of the Fibonacci applied to the 29.07 high and 12.08 low. Daily close below the most recent low that is also a psychological support level - 0.8500 could be used as a signal to close long positions.

Support: 0.8503

Resistance: 0.8630, 8710, 0.8836, 0.9044

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Global macro overview for 14/08/2015

Global macro overview for 14/08/2015:

The important data from the US for all the inflation observers is due to be released at 12:30 GMT today. The PPI (Producer Price Index) for July is expected to be at the levels of 0.1% m/m and -0.9% y/y and this forecast is lower than the prior month's release that was at the levels of 0.4% m/m and -0.7% y/y. Any reading in line or even lower expectations might be the first sign of rising inflationary concerns about the Fed inflation target of 2% before any rate hike.

The USD/JPY pair might shoot up if the data is better than expected and break out above the important resistance at the level of 125.84.

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Global macro overview for 14/08/2015

Global macro overview for 14/08/2015:

Not really impressive data from the core EU countries regarding the GDP has been released today. France's preliminary GDP was lower than the forecast (0.0% q/q; 1.0% y/y vs. 0.2% q/q; 1.1% y/y expected, 0.7% q/q; 0.9% prior) and the German GDP was disappointing as well (0.4% q/q; 1.6% y/y vs. 0.5% q/q; 1.6% y/y expected, 0.3% q/q; 1.1% y/y prior). The same worse-than-expected data was published by the Italian economy ( 0.2% q/q; 0.5% y/y vs. 0.3% q/q; 0.5% y/y expected, 0.3% q/q; 0.1% y/y prior). Another GDP report is scheduled for release later today at 09:00 GMT and this time it is a total print for all the EU countries. Nevertheless, it does not seem that this number will beat any expectations whatsoever.

After the data from the EU is releases, EUR/USD might continue trading in the short-term range and as long as the golden trendline is not broken, this pair can still challenge the 1.1215 resistance level.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 14, 2015

General overview for 14/08/2015:

The intraday resistance at the level of 1.3092 is the most important level for today as the corrective structure might get more impulsive in its last cycle if this level is broken. Nevertheless, the golden trendline is still providing the dynamic resistance and the market looks like it is in a distribution phase. Any failure to break out higher will put more emphasis on bearish wave development, especially if the intraday support at the level of 1.2951 is violated.

Support/Resistance:

1.3129 - Weekly Pivot

1.3092 - Intraday Resistance

1.3046 - WS1

1.2963 - WS2

1.2951 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders still should consider opening sell orders from the level of 1.3092 with tight SL (10-20 pips) and TP at the level of 1.3000.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 14, 2015

General overview for 14/08/2015:

As mentioned yesterday, the impulsive structure to the upside looks completed and the first indications of a corrective cycle to the downside are present in the hourly chart. Moreover, the intraday resistance at the level of 138.83 puts a cap on the price and after five-time trying, the market is not able to break out above this level. Further confirmation comes with the intraday support breakout at the level of 138.07 and the next support is at the level of 137.74.

Support/Resistance:

138.94 - WR3

138.86 - Wave B Top

138.83 - Intraday Resistance

137.07 - Intraday Support

137.02 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders still should consider opening sell orders from the level of 138.50 with SL above the level of 138.90 and TP at the level of 137.78.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 14 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The break above 170.77 indicates that an expanded flat correction is unfolding. This means a continuation higher to 1.7198 as an ideal target with an outside chance for a rally higher to 1.7273 if the b-wave extends before downside in wave c.

The short-term support is found at 1.6966 which ideally should protect the downside for the rally towards 1.7198 in wave b before lower in wave c. Only a direct break below 1.6893 will indicate that wave b peaked early and wave c is already unfolding.

Trading recommendation:

We were not looking for an extended flat, so our stop at 1.7078 was hit. We will wait to sell EUR at 1.7185 with stop placed at 1.7285.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 14 - 2015

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Technical summary:

No change in our view.

We continue to look for a continuation higher towards at least 139.31 and more likely the rally should continue higher to 142.05 as we move higher towards our long term standing target at 144.03. In the short term, we expect minor support at 138.42 to protect the downside for the rally higher to 139.31 and above. A break below 138.42 will confuse the picture, but only a break below 138.04 will indicate that a larger correction is unfolding and the neckline of the inverse S/H/S bottom could come into play.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 138.30 and will place our stop at 138.00. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 138.40 with the same stop at 138.00.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 14, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Final Core CPI y/y, Flash GDP q/q, Final CPI y/y, Italian Prelim GDP q/q, French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q, German Prelim GDP q/q, and French Prelim GDP q/q. The US will publish macroeconomic data too such as the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1210.

Strong Resistance:1.12014.

Original Resistance: 1.1193.

Inner Sell Area: 1.117982.

Target Inner Area: 1.1156.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1130.

Original Support: 1.1119.

Strong Support: 1.1108.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1102.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 14, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release some macroeconomic data such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 125.08.

Resistance. 2: 124.84.

Resistance. 1: 124.59.

Support. 1: 124.30.

Support. 2: 124.05.

Support. 3: 123.81.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 14, 2015

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Overview:

  • The major resistance of the NZD/USD pair has already set at the level of 0.6634. Equally important, the 0.8921 price is coinciding with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Additionally, in light of the previous events, the price has still been trapped between 0.6634 and 0.6467. Moreover, the range will be around 167 pips from today until next week. Besides, it should be noted that if the trend is ascending, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: NZD is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. Therefore, it will be wise to sell below the level of 0.6634 with the first target of 0.6503. If the trend can break the first target at 0.6634; then it might resume to 0.6467. Furthermore, it should be noted that the double top will be set at the level of 0.6467. Another thought, stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. So, stop loss should be placed above the 0.6682 level.

Observations:

  • The NZD/USD pair will call for a downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.6503 in order to test this strong support (it should be noted that the price of 0.6503 is going to form the weekly support 1). The pair will be able to continue towards the double bottom at 0.6467. At the same time, stop loss should be placed at the level of 0.6682.
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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 14, 2015

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Overview:

  • The USD/CAD pair has rebounded from minor support at 1.2975 which coincides with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. So, it will probably start upside movement at this area and recover again. Generally, it should be noted that the price formed strong support at the level of 1.2975/1.3001. Furthermore, this strong level has still been moving between 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels and 100% (1.3212) on the H4 chart. Hence, it is probably that the market will start showing the signs of a bull market again in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the level of 1.3010 with the first target at 1.3085 (the first resistance), then the USD/CAD pair will continue straightly towards the major resistance at 1.3212 in order to test the double top. The level of 1.3212 is going to represent the weekly resistance. Therefore, it will be very gainful to take profit around this area on August 14, 2015. On the other hand, you should always choose a good location for placing stop loss, thus you should set stop loss at the 1.2966 level today.

Intraday technical levels:

Date: 14/08/2015

Pair: USD/CAD

  • Projected high: 1.3112
  • Strong resistance (sell limit): 1.3095
  • Current pivot: 1.3038
  • Strong support (buy limit):1.2980
  • Breakout (sell stop): 1.2966
  • Projected low: 1.2794
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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 14, 2015

EUR/USD: The bullish signal on the EUR/USD pair is still intact. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the Williams' % Range period 20 is not too far from the overbought region. This means there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market: the outlook is bullish.

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USD/CHF: This pair traded lower this week but the bullish bias is not yet over. This means that the resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850 could be attained today or next week. Only a movement below the support level at 0.9650 would cause a bearish bias to form.

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GBP/USD: The Cable is a choppy as well as a volatile trading instrument. The price swings generally between the accumulation territory at 1.5450 and the distribution territory at 1.5650. For a clean directional bias to be seen, the price must go above the aforementioned distribution territory or below the accumulation territory. The price must also stay above the distribution territory or below the accumulation territory - otherwise things would continue being erratic.

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USD/JPY: This market had better be referred to as a sideways market. This is true when the market is viewed as regards to its pig picture. Although the dominant bias is bullish, the price has not gone upwards significantly within the last several weeks. Therefore, it would be advised that swing and position traders stay away from this market. The market is currently great for day traders and scalpers only.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has continued to go upwards, now moving above the demand zone at 138.50. The next target is at the supply zones at 139.00 and 139.50; but there is a need for strong buying pressures for the price to reach the supply zones.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 14, 2015

The daily chart is showing that currently the US dollar index is on the bear market. The index is looking to test the next support around the 95.50 level. However, a rebound should be expected when the index manages to reach that zone. However, the index could move with a downward bias too, if USDX makes a breakout of the 95.50 level.

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USDX has recovered from losses incurred this week, but the intraday bias is still bearish as the 200 SMA on H1 chart is pointing downwards. Next target on this road is the support level of 95.94, where we expect a breakout in order to fall until the 95.60 zone. MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.57 / 97.57

Daily chart's support levels: 95.50 / 94.70

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.37 / 96.88

H1 chart's support levels: 95.94 / 95.60

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.94, take profit is at 95.60, and stop loss is at 96.28.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 14, 2015

On the daily chart, the sideway trade is dominating the dynamic of GBP/USD, which continues to be trapped below resistance zone of 1.5640, but still trading above 200 SMA. However, a breakout over there will push the pair higher to test the next resistance around the 1.5761 level. MACD indicator is on the positive territory.

GBPUSDDaily.png

The resistance at the 1.5632 level is still rather strong on an intraday basis and the cable is falling further until the 200 SMA on H1 chart. Besides, GBP/USD seems to find dynamic support there and it could start to do rallies above the 1.5632 level until 1.5679. GBP/USD is still keeping the bullish momentum.

1439502019_GBPUSDH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5761

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5632 / 1.5679

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5587 / 1.5545

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5632, take profit is at 1.5679, and stop loss is at 1.5541.

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USDX technical analysis for August 14, 2015

The Dollar index remains in a bearish short-term trend. The index bounced higher yesterday towards short-term resistance of 96.90 but got rejected. I believe that the downward pressures are not over and I believe it is more probable to see price reach 95.

usdx.jpg

The Dollar index as shown on the 4-hour chart above is making lower lows and lower highs. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Price has broken the 38% retracement and I believe is heading towards the 61.8% retracement.

usdxd.jpg

Green line - support

Red line - resistance

The weekly chart continues to show that a trend is neutral as price is moving inside the multi-month triangle pattern. The Dollar index is testing the kijun- and tenkan-sen support indicators. If broken, we should expect more selling pressures to push price towards the lower triangle boundary. A break above the upper triangle boundary will be a bullish signal with new highs as targets. If we break below the green triangle support trend line, I would expect price to move towards the bigger blue rectangular area near 90.

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Gold technical analysis for August 14, 2015

Gold price made a pullback today and can still move lower towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement support. Important resistance is found in the $1,130-40 area and I believe we can see this level.

goldh4.jpg

Blue line - trend line support

Blue area -resistance

Gold price is above the Ichimoku cloud. A trend is bullish. Support is at $1,110 in the short term. Medium-term support is at $1,090. Only a break below $1,090 will confirm that the corrective bounce is over and we are heading to new lows.

goldd.jpg

Blue area - resistance

The weekly chart remains in favor of bulls in the short term but overall a longer-term trend remains bearish as price is still below the weekly Ichimoku cloud. Gold is probably heading towards the blue shaded area as shown on the weekly chart above. Support is critical at $1,080, so a weekly break below this level will be a sell signal with $1,040 as a target.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 13, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6787in a high volume. In the daily time frame, we can observe an up-thrust bar in an ultra high volume (selling climax). The price has broken our major resistance level (1.6805) and also did successful re-test. Anyway, according to the H1 chart we have ultra-high volume demand in the background and strong supply later on. As long as this potential absorption is active, there is a change that price can drop. The price is testing Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.6965. The trend is upward.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7015

R2: 1.7075

R3: 1.7170

Support levels:

S1: 1.6825

S2: 1.6765

S3: 1.6670

Trading recommendations: Upward trend but still strong buying climax in the background. Wait for potential absorption volume to confirm further upward movement.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 13, 2015

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. The US dollar index is currently trading at 96.369 as the US dollar reversed course overnight dropping against major currencies. China's surprise move to devaluate the yuan caused traders to doubt if the US Federal Reserve would hike interest rates in September as expected. The euro touched the monthly high of $1.1215, USD/CAD posted the biggest daily loss since mid-April to close at 1.2973 to the US dollar, and USD/CHF plunged 1.31% to close at 0.9748. Meanwhile USD/JPY is posting a technical rebound from yesterday's low of 123.85 but remains below the key resistance at 124.60. The 20-period intraday moving average is still under the 50-period one. As long as the pair fails to surpass 124.70, it stands a higher chance of returning to the first downside target at 123.80 and to the second one at 123.50 in extension.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is bearish. The MACD histogram bars are turned negative.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.85. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 123.50. The pivot point stands at 124.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 125 and the second target at 125.25.

Resistance levels: 125 125.25 125.60

Support levels: 123.85 123.50 123.20

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 13, 2015

USDCHFM30.png

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. Even though the pair posted a technical rebound yesterday, the intraday outlook is still negative as the prices remain under pressure below a strong resistance at 0.9800, which should limit any upside potential. The 50-period MA has reversed down; and it also acts as a resistance. The intraday RSI lacks upward momentum. According to these prospects, as long as the resistance at 0.9800 is not surpassed, the risk of a break below 0.967 remains high.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9715. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9660. The pivot point stands at 0.98. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9860 and the second target at 0.9940.

Resistance levels: 0.9860 0.9940 0.9995

Support levels: 0.9715 0.9660 0.9635

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 13, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair reversed to the upside yesterday after breaking above an intraday declining trendline and now is challenging the first upside target at 0.6630. The 20- and 50-period MAs are still heading upwards, thus confirming a positive outlook. The intraday RSI is bullish above its neutrality level at 50 calling for a new rebound. Hence, as long as the key support at 0.6535 is not broken, look for a further advance to 0.6630 and 0.6675 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6630 and the second target at 0.6675. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6515. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6465. The pivot point is at 0.6535.

Resistance levels: 0.6630 0.6675 0.6735

Support levels: 0.6510 0.6465 0.6415

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 13, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair has broken below its previous low and is looking for a higher top. Both rising 20- and 50-period intraday MAs maintain a bearish bias. The intraday RSI is well directed. Further downside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set 193 at first. A break below this level would call for a further advance towards 192.20. Only a break above the horizontal resistance at 194.50 would open the way to further strengthening towards the 195.05 low of August 11 at first.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 193. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 192.20. The pivot point stands at 194.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 195.05 and the second target at 195.40.

Resistance levels: 195.05 195.40 196

Support levels: 193 192.20 191.75

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