NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 19, 2018

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Since January, the price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 has been standing as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous weeks' consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why a bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 0.6960 to offset the risk.

Currently, the price levels of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a target level for current sellers.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 19, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) was considered a prominent Supply zone where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were offered on Thursday. S/L should be lowered to 1.1660 to secure some of the profits.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 is the next destination for the current bearish decline where price action should be watched for bullish demand and a possible bullish pullback.

Otherwise, Bearish breakdown below 1.1400 might occur if the current bearish momentum persists. This can potentially enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1270 (recent consolidation range and demand level).

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Review of GBP / USD pair for a week of June 19 on simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The direction of short-term trends of the major pound from January 25 this year sets the bearish wave algorithm. By now the structure has been formed, the preliminary goal has been achieved.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The bearish wave of April 17 is the closest to this scale. It completes a larger wave model. Quotations have reached the upper boundary of the potential reversal zone.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The last wave can be considered a bearish section of the traffic from June 7. In the near future, within the framework of this wave, an upward pullback is expected.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Sales are risky and not recommended. For all bidders, it's more logical to wait for the current bearish wave to end and look for signals to buy a pair.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3450 / 1.3500

Support zones:

- 1.3180 / 1.3130

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 19, 2018

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Overview:

This week, the GBP/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (1.3429). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.3429 to the bottom around 1.3225. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3429 followed by 1.3580, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3225.

Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.3225. So it will be good to sell at 1.3250 with the first target of 1.3200. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.3106. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.3106 level, which represents the double bottom on the H4 chart.

According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3250 and 1.3106 in coming hours. The price area of 1.3300 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the levels of 1.3300/1.3429 are not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.3429, then a stop loss should be placed at 01.3475.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for June 19, 2018

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

Touching the fifth support line gives 70% probability of top work with the first target of 1.1664 - Fibonacci level 14.6% (blue dotted line). After working off the strong news at 8.00 London time. an upward movement is possible, but for now, it will only be at the bottom.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - down;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the market will move down with the first goal 1.1566 until 8.00 London time - e support line (white line). Then, it is possible to top.

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Global macro overview for 19/06/2018

It is the lunchtime in Europe now, but the gloomy atmosphere denies to leave investors. The largest European indices remain in red, expressing concern about the speech made by President Donald Trump, during which he threatened to impose additional duties on Chinese products. On the plus side, however, it can be noted that for two hours you can see modest rebound attempts.

The futures market on Wall Street has so far yielded less effective price drops than on European or Asian markets. Futures on the SP500 are only sliding by 0.2%, while futures from NASDAQ almost do not record changes in the exchange rate. In a similar condition is the German DAX, which dropped by about 1.5%. Beiersdorf was the only company listed in the DAX index to record increases during today's session.

On the currency market, traders can observe increases in USD and JPY, which means the global investors are running to the so-called safe haven assets. Gold also has a price increase, but only by about 0.1%. These movements may be justified by the widespread fear of developing political disputes between China and the US.

WTI oil erases yesterday's increases, which were the result of OPEC's less radical approach to raising the level of output, falling by more than 1 percent. and staying at the limit of USD 65 per barrel. The price of cotton falls another day, losing about 2.5%, leveling the levels at the end of May.

Let's now take a look at the German DAX index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market opened with a gap down this morning and so far made a low at the level of 12,600, which is a technical support for the price. Currently, the bulls are trying to fill the gap between the levels of 12,837 - 12,684, but so far no avail. The other obstacle on the road higher for bulls is the golden internal trend line, which is acting as a dynamic resistance. If the bulls will be too weak to move higher, the bears will push the price lower again towards the level of 12,547. Weak momentum and stochastic pointing to the downside support the bearish bias.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 19, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3226. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 1.3185 to a top around 1.3275. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3275 followed by 1.3322, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3185 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3226 and 1.3322; so we expect a range of 96 pips.

Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3275, we should see the pair climbing towards the 1.3322 level.

Therefore, buy above the level of 1.3226 with the first target at 1.3275 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3322. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3322 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD pair breaks through the support level of 13185, a further decline to 1.3066 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Review of USD / CHF pair for a week of June 19 on simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The unfinished upward wave of the instrument from February 16 in a larger model begins the formation of the final part (C). In recent months, the price has been adjusted.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The downward wave of May 10 reached the lowest possible level of elongation below. Considering the pronounced impulsive character of the previous ascent, the goal of the entire correction can already be achieved.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The upward segment of the price movement from June 7 has a large wave potential. There is a high probability of the beginning of a bullish design of a larger scale.

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Recommended trading strategy:

For all the main styles of trading, the pairs are not very promising. In the area of settlement support, it is worth paying attention to buying signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.0030 / 1.0080

Support zones:

- 0.9880 / 0.9830

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily review of GBP / JPY on June 19. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / JPY pair

Deceleration was short-lived, the bears retained their advantages and are continuing to decline. The key area today is the support area of 144.34-48 (monthly Kijun + the lower boundary of the weekly cloud). In the case of breakdown and consolidation below the weekly cloud, a new downside target will be formed (the goal for the breakdown of the weekly cloud). On the way to fulfill this goal, the bears will have to resolve the issue of liquidating the monthly golden cross (Fibo Kijun 139.72). If the players on the downgrade in the current situation keep the pair in the weekly cloudiness and will not be able to overcome the support (144.34-48). The most urgent again will be testing the opposite border.

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The lower time intervals on all of the elements of the Ichimoku indicator and currently support the players for a fall. A downward target has been formed for the breakdown of the cloud. Execution of the goal will lead to a couple in the support area of the senior half times 144,34-48, which once again confirms the importance of this milestone. The most significant resistance level for today can be noted at 145.78 (cross N1 + daytime Fibo Kijun) - 146.10 (Tenkan N4 + Senkou Span B N4 - Fibo Kijun N1) - 146.60 (Kijun N4 + cloud N1 + day cross levels).

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

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Trading plan for GBP / USD pair as of June 19, 2013

Today, the pound will be dominated by US statistics, which is expected to be both multi-directional. Although generally, it is quite positive. There is a forecast increase in the number of construction projects started from 1,287,000 to 1,310,000, while the number of issued construction permits should decrease from 1,352,000 to 1,350,000. But in general, the total balance increases by 21,000. Moreover, there is a significant growth at the beginning of construction projects, and this includes the purchase of building materials, transportation costs, as well as, labor for those who build houses directly. But the issued permits for construction do not necessarily immediately turn into a construction site.

The GBP/USD currency pair returned to the value of 1.3250 after a short rollback. We can probably assume a temporary fluctuation in the range of 1.3230 / 1.3270.

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Trading plan for EUR / USD pair as of June 19, 2013

At first glance, a single European currency has a chance to improve its position a little more today, and this assumption is based on European statistics. The fact is that the growth rate of the construction industry is projected to accelerate from 0.8% to 2.0%, which is quite a significant growth. Moreover, if the forecasts are confirmed, the prospects for the growth of industrial production are becoming even more tangible. However, the number of issued building permits in the US data and also the construction projects that are being issued, which are somewhat similar to the European ones published. The forecast is multi-directional, since with the increase in the number of construction projects started from 1,287,000 to 1,310,000. The number of issued building permits is expected to decrease from 1,352,000 to 1,350,000. But in general, the total balance increased by 21,000. Moreover, there is a significant increase in the construction projects that have just begun, and this includes the purchase of construction materials, transportation costs, and work for those who build houses directly. But the issued permits for construction do not necessarily immediately turn into a construction site.

The EUR / USD currency pair dared to form a pullback after the rally last week. But the joy of the bulls was not great, we already met resistance at the level of 1.1650. Probably, we can assume for a temporary fluctuation within the range of 1.1650 with immediate convergence.

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EUR/USD analysis for June 19, 2018

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Recently, EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1549. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a broken bearish flag pattern and a potential end of the upward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1511, 1.1457 and at the price of 1.1345.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.1637R2: 1.1653 R3: 1.1662

Support levels: S1: 1.1612S2: 1.1603S3: 1.1587Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for June 19, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,279.00. According to the H1 time - frame, I found potential end of the upward corrective structure (abc), which is a sign that sellers may continue with downward direction. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,263.35 and at the price of $1,250.15.

Resistance levels: R1: $1,286.60R2: $1,288.20 R3: $1,289.90

Support levels: S1: $1,283.30S2: $1,281.60S3: $1,280.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for June 19, 2018

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Trading recommendations: According to the H1 time - frame, I found a breakout of the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found an intraday bullish flag pattern in creation, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the flag to confirm a further upward movement. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.870 and at the price of $7.200.

Support/Resistance

$6.757– Intraday resistance $6.634– Intraday support $6.870– Objective target 1$7.213 - Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Trump quickly moves to war with China. Trade War

Trump quickly moves to war with China. Trade War

On Monday, June 18, US President Trump demanded from the trade officials to prepare a new list of goods from China to pay a duty of 10% - a list of goods worth a huge amount, $200 billion.

Earlier on Friday, Trump approved and actually introduced tariffs on goods from China for $50 billion.

Since China immediately responded with a statement that it will impose retaliatory measures on goods from the United States by the same amount, Trump said that in case of China's retaliatory duties, the United States will impose another $200 billion worth of tariffs to pay for a list of goods from China.

At the same time, Trump said that he had "excellent relations with Chinese leader XI Jinping" - but he, Trump, will not allow other countries "to use trade with the US for their interests".

I do not think that in the case of the entry of all these duties (and it seems more real in the first week of July) - Trump will be able to maintain good relations with the head of China. I believe that all these actions of Trump appear, from China's point of view at least, as hostile actions - and, probably, as an insult.

Trump wants a trade war - most likely, he will get it. I believe that the United States will lose more than it would win. Trump's actions are completely unjustified from a purely economic point of view: Unemployment in the US is only 3.8% - a very low level. If China stops supplying large amounts of goods to the United States, who will produce them in the US?

At the same time, the blow to international trade - a blow from the US especially - is inevitably undermining the status of the dollar as the currency of world trade.

We follow the development of the plot.

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Global macro overview for 19/06/2018

The administration of Donald Trump uses increasingly aggressive rhetoric in the shuffles between China and the commercial background. The President of the United States has threatened to impose an additional 10% duties on a new catalog of Chinese products with a total value of USD 200 billion. This move was supposed to be a response to the last charges imposed on the American products by the Chinese government, which are an answer to US protectionism. The spiral of retaliatory actions has revived the whole - the authorities of the Middle Kingdom are announcing that they will not remain indifferent to yesterday's position of the United States.

The exchange of threats that takes place between the two superpowers obviously has a negative impact on global markets:

  • A panic sale in post-holiday trade on Chinese exchanges. Shanghai Composite drops almost 4.0%, Hang Seng has fallen 3.0%. The Shenzen Composite sell-off is even deeper.
  • The contract for DAX drops by 1.7% and it is at 12600. The test of the support zone from May and June begins.
  • Futures on the SP500 also decrease by around 1.5% and he already wiped out half of the May rebound. Currently, the market is under 2750 points.
  • USD/JPY falls below 110 and has a movement of 0.7 percent. The Australian dollar is heavily overestimated, AUD/USD is falling 0.8 percent, its May breaks through the year and is the lowest for a year.
  • Commodities are under enormous pressure, cotton is particularly weak, which in the week was cheaper by more than 10 percent. About 2.0% overestimated are not only contracts for this raw material, but also soy and corn. Gold has only a minimal increase (0.25%). The ounce is valued at USD 1281.3.
  • USA10Y debt yield decreases by 5 bp and to 2.86%.

The global investors should keep an eye on the opening of the Wall Street as this might be one of this days, when the markets will react very violate. Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 timeframe before the market opens. The market remains in a tight consolidation zone between the levels of 274.91 - 277.51, but is the sell-off will spill over the global markets, this zone will be quickly broken. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 273.42- 274.15 and it is a key support zone for the bulls. Any violation of this zone would give bears the control over the market and accelerate the sell-off. The next levels of support are 271.47, 269.90 and 267.90.

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Bitcoin analysis for 19/06/2018

Sberbank and Alfa-Bank will offer their clients shares in a special fund that will provide access to the six most popular cryptocurrencies.

Sberbank, the main state bank, and Alfa Bank, the largest private bank in the country, are planning to enter cryptocurrency trade using the investment fund AddCapital, the National Depository for Securities and the IB Group.

The vice-president of Sberbank said:

"We want to offer our clients a completely transparent way to invest in digital resources, in full compliance with the regulations that will allow them to invest in the product they are interested in Russia."

Moreover, Anton Rachmanov, head of the Alfa Bank banking branch, added: "Our goal is to accelerate the recognition of digital assets as legal financial assets as soon as possible"

It is added that AddCapital, an investment fund that participated in the recent pre-sales of Telegram tokens, is responsible for the technical solution of the project. CEO Alexey Prokofyev said that in the investment process they will be buying part of this fund. The portfolio will include the six most popular cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. These cryptocurrencies will be reviewed four times a year, and their proportions will be balanced by the trading algorithm. "The shares are liquid and the client can send cash at any time," said Prokofyev.

The National Settlement Deposit, which is part of the Moscow Stock Exchange Group, will act as a depositary.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the golden trend line support and made a new local high at the level of $6,700. It looks like the first resistance zone between the levels of $6,587 - $6,687 might be violated soon, so the price will be able to move towards the next technical resistnace at the level of $7,000. The key resistnace zone for the bulls is still seen between the levels of $7,752 - $7,890.

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Trading plan for the European session on June 19 EUR/USD

To open long positions for EURUSD, it is required:

Buyers need to stay above the support of 1.1606 in the first half of the day, and it is better to form a false breakout there, which will be a signal to open long positions, the main goal is to go beyond the resistance of 1.1642 with an update of the high of 1.169, where I recommend profit taking. In the event of a decline below the level of 1.1606, the purchase can be counted in the area of 1.1566 or on the rebound from a new low of 1.1522.

To open short positions for EURUSD, it is required:

The trend remains downward. The breakout of support of 1.156 will be a direct signal to the selling of the euro with an exit to the lows of the month in the area of 1.1566. The breakdown of this range opens a direct road to the area of 1.1522 and 1.1482, where I recommend to lock in profit. In case of growth above 1.1642 in the morning, you can sell the euro on a rebound from 1.1689.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Trading plan for the European session on June 19 GBP/USD

To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Buyers of the pound will try to keep the level of 1.3242, but in the event of its breakthrough, it is best to return to long positions after the formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.3213 or a rebound from 1.3146. The main goal will be to consolidate above the resistance of 1.3271 with the test area of 1.3308, where I recommend to lock in the profit.

To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Sellers will try to gain a foothold below the support of 1.3242, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave in the area of 1.3213 and 1.3146, where I recommend to lock in profit. In the event of a rise in the resistance of 1.3271 in the morning, sales of the pound can be returned to the rebound from 1.3308 and 1.3346.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 19/06/2018

Trump advised the Department of Commerce to identify Chinese assets worth US $200 billion, which could be imposed on a 10% import duty. Trump warned China that it would impose a new set of tariffs in response to China's decision to raise customs for US goods worth $ 50 billion (which was the answer to the same US move on Friday). The new round of customs war has scared off investors and pushes capital to safe havens. In the currency market, JPY and CHF gain the most. USD / JPY fell from 110.50 at 109.70. The shallow market could compound changes. The worst position is the AUD, which is worried about the economic condition of China. AUD / USD loses to 0.7385. Gold slightly benefits from an increase in risk aversion. Crude oil remains volatile before the Friday OPEC.

On Tuesday, 19th of June, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Building Permits data form the US. The is again plenty of speeches scheduled during the day from ECB President Mario Draghi and FOMC Member James Bullard.

AUD/USD analysis for 19/06/2018:

The minutes of the June RBA meeting did not bring much new information. According to the RBA, the current monetary policy is in line with the published macroeconomic data. Low rates definitely support the economy. Reducing unemployment and increasing inflation will only be gradual. Recent data confirms forecasts for GDP growth above 3.0%. Inflation will eventually reach 2.0%, in line with the assumed goal.

The increase in the value of the Australian dollar may lead to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation. The wage dynamics are low and stable, according to the conducted research, many companies planned to raise wages faster. Consumer spending is less volatile in the second quarter, partly due to warm weather. The situation may improve in the third quarter due to the increase in the minimum wage in Australia.

Investments in infrastructure should support the economy for some time. The Management of the Bank of Australia noticed the loosening of property prices in Sydney and Melbourne, however, they are still much higher than in 2014. Demographic trends were discussed, currently, a strong population growth is taking place. There is a global risk in the form of an exacerbation of the conflict between the US and China.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the technical support at the level of 0.7445 and 0.7410 and now is heading towards the key daily technical support at the level of 0.7329. The market conditions are oversold, but the very weak momentum is still pointing to the downside. The chances for a bounce before the level of 0.7329 is hit are very low as the bears remain in complete control.

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Trade wars stimulate demand for defensive assets

The world markets are again agitated not only by D. Trump's promises to start trade wars all over the planet, but by the reality of their start.

Investors suddenly realized that there would be no acceptable compromise between the United States and China. It is likely that they will be able to "crush" heavily dependent Canada and Mexico (NAFTA), but the conflict with Europe may not be resolved, as Trump expects a complete victory. The danger of all these events is that, in deciding to no longer "feed" allies and other economic partners, the United States, in the person of its President, is rocking the boat of the world economy, and this against the background of trade wars will threaten to dump it in a new recession with all the ensuing negative consequences.

On Monday, the market reaction was still vague and did not reflect the growing concerns of investors. But already today in the Asian trading session, this trend began to be actively manifested. First of all, in the growth of demand for safe haven assets. In the morning, the strengthening of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc continues. Government bonds of economically strong countries led by the US are enjoying increased attention. Thus, the yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasuries on electronic trading in the morning falls by 1.75% to 2.750%. After last week's attempt to once again overcome the important psychological level of 3.00%, the yield rolled back down just in the wake of the actual start of the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

Given such market sentiment, it can be assumed that the risk appetite of investors will decline, which is already reflected in the dynamics of the US stock market and other securities markets, including developing markets (EM).

Assessing this situation, we believe that it is worth paying attention to the yen and the Swiss franc, which will receive support as long as the tension surrounding trade wars will be maintained. As for commodites and commodity currencies, they are also likely to be under pressure from a possible fall in commodity prices and assets due to growing fears that trade wars will result in a fall in global demand for these assets and, as a consequence, a decline in production of goods, followed by a slowdown in world economic growth with a future transition to a new recession or recession.

The forecast for today:

GBPUSD is testing the level of 1.3225 in the wake of the weakness of sterling due to the unresolved problem of the withdrawal of Britain from the EU, and the falling of interest of investors to risky assets. A steadying below this level may lead to a price decline to 1.3200 and then to 1.3145.

The USDJPY pair remains under pressure on the wave of growth in demand for safe haven assets. The price overcame the mark of 109.85, which can serve as the basis for its further fall to 109.20 or even lower to 109.00.

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The euro touched the strong technical resistance

EUR / USD

On Monday, the euro continued a moderate upward correction (15 points) on a calm, external background. Italy's trade balance for April came in worse than the forecast: 2.94 billion euros against 3.21 billion and 4.53 billion in March. The data may indicate somewhat worse. Also, the balance of payments of the euro area for April was published today with the forecast of 30.3 billion euros versus 32.0 billion a month earlier. The German Central Bank released a monthly economic report yesterday. The Bundesbank expects some growth in the economy for the second quarter, noting positive trends in inflation. In the US, the business activity index in the housing market from the NAHB for June showed an unexpected decline from 70 to 68.

According to the US, data on bookings for new houses for May will be released today. The forecast is 1.31 million YoY against 1.29 million YoY in April. But the number of issued permits for the construction of new houses could fall from 1.36 million to 1.35 million.

The technical aspect of EUR/USD shows the resistance of the pair during the Asian session on the side of the trend line and Marlin oscillator indicates the signal line had touched the border value of 0.00.

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On the 4-hour timeframe, the Marlin indicator is also on the zero line, from which the signal line can be reversed and prices are down.

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In general, investors are waiting for the opening of the ECB conference in Portugal, as Jerome Powell, Haruhiko Kuroda, and Philip Lowe are invited. The speakers will talk tomorrow, and Mario Draghi will make an opening speech today. Investors do not expect high-profile statements at this event. More important is acquired by a new round of increases in trade tariffs imposed by the US on China. We are waiting for the euro at 1.1510 - the low of May 29.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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The yen fell first in the trade war between the US and China

USD / JPY

Yesterday, the Japanese data on the trade balance came out mixed. Exports increased from 7.8% YoY to 8.1% YoY against expectations of a decline to 7.5% YoY according to estimates in May. But imports increased from 5.9% YoY to 14.0% YoY, which eventually amounted to a negative balance. The seasonally adjusted balance was -0.30 trillion yen against the forecast of 0.14 trillion yen and 0.45 trillion yen a month earlier. Excluding seasonal fluctuations, the trade balance was -578 billion yen against 625 billion yen in April. The yen was currently down by 40 points, but the day was closed by a decrease of 11 points thanks to external support.

Today, the Asian markets played well with the statement of Donald Trump to impose a 10% tariffs on Chinese goods for another $ 200 billion. China announced the preparation for a reciprocal measures. The Chinese stock index, China A50 is losing 2.12%, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 by -1.03%. The yen declined by 75 points.

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The first support price can serve as the line at the intersection with the minimum level on May 4 in the area of 108.77. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator bounced back to the negative territory.

The 4-hour chart does not show any signs of reversal:

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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The correction of the Pound is limited

GBP / USD

On Monday, the British pound declined by 17 points under the pressure of the old Brexit problems despite the absence of local positive news in the UK. Against the backdrop of the dollar, the pound did not attack the strong support of 1.3203 / 10. This morning, the British currency decided to note the increase since easing continues.

There is no scheduled data in the UK today. While in the US, new bookmarks for May will be released and the growth is predicted from 1.29 million to 1.31 million. A revival in the dollar market may occur, if the pound will be fixed under 1.3203 which may cause increased interest. The investors' expectations about the neutral-predictable meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday indicates the implementation of this scenario and that investors can go ahead but they may not take risks. We are waiting for the pound to fall to this level. The maximum possible growth under current conditions is assumed to be not higher than 1.3362, where the price will hold up the resistance of the balance line (red), from which the price was set on June 16th.

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On the 4-hour chart, the situation appears to be neutral. The price is under the balance line (red), under the blue line (trend line), and the Marlin oscillator still shows negative values (-0.0004).

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Technical analysis on USDJPY for June 19, 2018

Yesterday we talked about the warnings by the bearish divergence in this pair. Price has now broken through and below the bullish channel and is challenging the lower cloud boundary support at 109.50.

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Blue lines - bullish channel (broken)

The USD/JPY pair has broken through the first support level at 110.20 and has entered inside the Ichimoku cloud. Support is at 109.50. At this level we also find the 50% retracement of the entire rise. Price could bounce for a back test of the broken channel. A daily close below 109.50 will be a bearish sign. Bulls still have hopes as long as 109.50 holds.

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Burning forecast 19.06.2018

Burning forecast 19.06.2018

EURUSD is ready for a new fall.

There is no important economic news. But there is an increase in political tension: Trump is preparing new tariffs on goods from China - the second batch, already at $200 billion (the first batch of $50 billion) - this will come into force if China introduces retaliation for the first package of duties.

Merkel's government in a serious crisis: Merkel's allies from the CSU party demanded from Merkel a change in the policy of admission of migrants - a demand in the form of an ultimatum, the term for Merkel is 2 weeks. There is not a very small chance that we will see early elections in Germany.

So far, according to the tested scenario, the tension plays in favor of the US dollar.

We are ready to sell the euro with a break below 1.1540: Sell from 1.1540, stop 1.1585, profit 1.1440.

Alternative: Buying from 1.1855.

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Technical analysis on USDX for June 19, 2018

The Dollar index remains near its highs. Trend remains bullish. There are bearish divergence signs that provide a warning for Dollar bulls. Short-term support at 94.20-94 is important for the short-term trend. As long as price is above this level we could see a move higher towards 95.70. The next big move in the Dollar index will be to the downside.

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Red line - support

Yellow line - bearish divergence

The new high in the Dollar index was not confirmed by the RSI. This is not a reversal signal but only a warning for bulls. For this up trend to remain intact, the index must not break below 93.20. A break below 93.20 will confirm that the trend has changed to bearish. I expect the Dollar index to make an important change of trend similar to the start of the year bottom and upward reversal, only this time to the downside.

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Technical analysis on Gold for June 19, 2018

Gold price remains near its 2018 lows. Price stopped the decline at the $1,276 support. Resistance is at $1,285 and next at $1,300. Gold price remains in a bearish trend. However I believe that the next big move will be to the upside towards $1,400-$1,450.

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Blue line - support

Red line - resistance

Gold price is trading around the important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Short-term support is expected to hold and Gold to make at least a bounce towards $1,295-$1,300. A break above the $1,300 area will open the way for a bigger bounce towards $1,320-30. I believe there are very little chances that Gold moves much lower from current levels.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of June 19

Forecast for June 19:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the H1 scale:

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For the Euro/Dollar pair, key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1683, 1.1640, 1.1611, 1.1542, 1.1511, 1.1491 and 1.1451. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure from June 7, where the current price is in correction. We expect continuous movement to the bottom after the breakdown of 1.1542, in this case the target is 1.1511, in the corridor 1.1511 - 1.1491 consolidation. Potential value for the bottom can be considered at the level of 1.1451, and we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement and consolidation are possible in the corridor 1.1611 - 1.1640. Breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction, with the target at 1.1683, and this level is the key support for the downward movement.

The main trend is the downward cycle from June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1611 Take profit: 1.1638

Buy 1.1641 Take profit: 1.1680

Sell: 1.1540 Take profit: 1.1511

Sell: 1.1490 Take profit: 1.1453

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For the Pound/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3354, 1.3311, 1.3281, 1.3235, 1.3191, 1.3166 and 1.3112. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of June 7. We expect continuous movement to the bottom after the breakdown of 1.3235 and in this case the target is 1.3191, in the corridor 1.3191 - 1.3166 consolidation. Potential value for the bottom can be considered at the level of 1.3112, from which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3281 - 1.3311. Breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 1.3354, and this level is the key support for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle from June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3281 Take profit: 1.3310

Buy: 1.3314 Take profit: 1.3352

Sell: 1.3235 Take profit: 1.3195

Sell: 1.3164 Take profit: 1.3115

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For the Dollar/Franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0092, 1.0048, 1.0025, 0.9990, 0.9949, 0.9924 and 0.9890. Here, we continue to follow the upward cycle from June 7 where the price is currently in correction. We expect continuous movement to the top after the breakdown of 0.9990 and in this case the target is 1.0025, in the corridor 1.0025 - 1.0048 consolidation. The potential value for the top can be considered at the level of 1.0092 and a movement near this area would likely breakdown the 1.0050.

Short-term downward movement and consolidation are possible in the corridor 0.9949 - 0.9924, breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 0.9890, which serves at the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from June 7, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9990 Take profit: 1.0025

Buy: 1.0050 Take profit: 1.0090

Sell: 0.9947 Take profit: 0.9926

Sell: 0.9922 Take profit: 0.9892

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For the Dollar/Yen pair, the key levels on the scale are: 112.24, 111.90, 111.31, 110.92, 110.69, 110.15, 109.79, 109.46 and 108.91. Here, we continue to follow the formation of the local structure for the top of June 8, the price is currently in correction. We can expect a continued movement to the top after passing through the price range of 110.69 - 110.92, in this case the target is 111.31. Potential value for the top can be considered the level of 112.24, upon reaching this area, we expect consolidation in the corridor 112.24 - 111.90.

Correction is expected after the breakdown of 110.15, with the target at 109.79 in this corridor consolidation. Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 109.79 - 109.46, breakdown of the latter value will have to develop the downward structure, with the potential target at 108.91.

The main trend: a local structure for the top of June 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.92 Take profit: 111.30

Buy: 111.33 Take profit: 111.90

Sell: 109.76 Take profit: 109.48

Sell: 109.44 Take profit: 108.95

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For the Canadian Dollar/US Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3400, 1.3340, 1.3260, 1.3219, 1.3159, 1.3116 and 1.3053. Here, we follow the local upward structure of May 31. Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3219 - 1.3260, while breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement near 1.3340 level which we expect consolidation. Potential value for the top can be considered at the level of 1.3400 and from this level we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3159 - 1.3116, while the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 1.3055, which is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3260 Take profit: 1.3338

Buy: 1.3342 Take profit: 1.3400

Sell: 1.3157 Take profit: 1.3118

Sell: 1.3114 Take profit: 1.3057

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For the Australian Dollar/US Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7569, 0.7518, 0.7490, 0.7452, 0.7400, 0.7373 and 0.7322. Here, we continue to follow the downward cycle from June 6. We expect the continuous movement to the bottom after passing through the price of the noise range 0.7400 - 0.7373, in this case the potential target is 0.7322 and upon reaching this, we expect a rollback to the top.

We expect withdrawal in the correction after the breakdown of 0.7452, with the target at 0.7490. Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 0.7490 - 0.7518, breakdown of the last value will have to form an upward structure with the target at 0.7569.

The main trend is the downward cycle from June 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7452 Take profit: 0.7490

Buy: 0.7520 Take profit: 0.7565

Sell: 0.7370 Take profit: 0.7325

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Euro/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 130.28, 129.52, 128.80, 128.29, 127.55, 126.84 and 126.30. Here, the price forms the potential downward movement from June 13. We expect continuous movement to the bottom after the breakdown of 127.55, in this case the target is 126.84. Potential value for the bottom can be considered at the level of 126.30, and we expect to formalize the expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

Short-term uptrend would likely be in the corridor 128.29 - 128.80, and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 129.520 This level is the key support for the downward structure from June 13.

The main trend is capacity building for the bottom of June 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.30 Take profit: 128.70

Buy: 128.85 Take profit: 129.50

Sell: 127.55 Take profit: 126.90

Sell: 126.80 Take profit: 126.35

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For the Pound/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.28, 146.58, 146.20, 145.58, 145.31, 144.54 and 143.96. Here, we follow the development of the downward cycle of July 7. We expect continuous movement to the bottom after passing through the price of the noise range 145.58 - 145.31, in this case the target is 144.54 near consolidation level. Potential value for the bottom can be considered at the level of 143.96, which we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 146.20 - 146.58. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 147.28, this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle from June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.20 Take profit: 146.55

Buy: 146.65 Take profit: 147.20

Sell: 145.30 Take profit: 144.65

Sell: 144.50 Take profit: 144.00

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com